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Early voting trends [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2024-10-27  

I’ve been checking early voting results from the seven swing states plus Texas and Florida. The number are published daily at this NBC News website. In addition to the number of people who have voted, they report the how many voters are registered Democrats, Republicans, and others. Also reported are the number of voters who are male and female. I wish we had the Party-gender crosstabs so we would know the number of Democratic females and Republican females but no such luck. Still the information is interesting.

Here is my take on the voting patterns so far. Specifics for each state are below. When looking at the data, keep in mind party and gender numbers are characteristics of the voters, not how they voted. While most Democrats and Republicans will vote for their party candidates, not all will. And who knows now non party people will vote. Same for gender. All female voters will not vote for Harris and all males will not vote for Trump. Polls suggest the splits will be in the neighborhood of 55%-45). Finally, note that the percent of eligible voters who have voted is not the percent who will end up voting. That percent is lower as it is unlikely over 80% of eligible voters will actually vote.

Blue Wall state (WI, MI, PA) numbers are encouraging. Both more Democrats than Republican and women more than men have voted. The troubling sign I see is that they have low rates of early voters PA (18%), WI (24%), MI (27%). Michigan early voting is 98% mail-in as early on site voting just started yesterday and might not be included. Pennsylvania has no early voting. All their votes are mail-in or drop-off. Wisconsin is split in about half half mail-in and in-person voting.

It isn’t looking so good for Harris in the other states. More Republicans than Democrats have voted in all those states. A glimmer of hope can be seen in the gender voter numbers. In all states except Nevada, females have voted in higher numbers than males.

Of those states, North Carolina looks best for Harris. Republican voters are just 2% above Democrats (35% to 33%). Nearly a third of the voters are non-party and their black-Nazi (his words) GOP governor candidate is far down in the polls. Females are outvoting males 55% to 44%. And half of all registered voters have already voted.

Georgia looks the next best for Democrats. The Democrat - Republican split is narrow (45%-49%) with a significant female voter advantage (56% - 44%).

Hopes for Florida or Texas turning blue look bleak. They will not only vote for Trump but probably return their disgusting Senators Cruz and Scott back to Congress.

Nevada looks lost. Not only are Republicans voting at a higher rate than Democrats but males are voting at higher rates than females.

Here are specifics by state.

Michigan

# (%) RV who voted: 1,491,858 (27%)

% of Voters by party: D-52%; R-38%; NP-10%

# Dem vs GOP: 208,860 more Dems have voted

# Female vs Male: 208,860 more females have voted

# No Party voted: 149,186 voted

Wisconsin

# (%) RV who voted: 826,249 (24%)

% of Voters by party D-35%; R-23%; NP-42%

# Dem vs GOP: 66,100 more Democrats have voted

# Female vs Male: 99,150 females have voted

# No Party voted: 347,025

Pennsylvania

# (%) RV who voted: 1,284,742 (18%)

% of Voters by party: D-60%; R-30%; NP-10%

# Dem vs GOP: 167,016 more Democrats have voted

# Female vs Male: 385,423 more females have voted

# No Party voted: 128,474 have voted

North Carolina

# (%) RV who voted: 2,592,694 (50%)

% of Voters by party: D-33%; R-35%; NP-32%

# Dem vs GOP: 51,854 more Republicans have voted

# Female vs Male: 285,196 more females have voted

# No Party voted: 829,662

Nevada

# (%) RV who voted: 583,227 (40%)

% of Voters by party: D-35%; R-41%; NP-24%

# Dem vs GOP: 34,994 more Republicans have voted

# Female vs Male: 11,665 more males have voted

# No Party voted: 139,974

Arizona

# (%) RV who voted: 1,192,036 (31%)

% of Voters by party: D-36%; R-42%; NP-22%

# Dem vs GOP: 71,522 more Republicans have voted

# Female vs Male: 47,681 more females have voted

# No Party: 262,248

Georgia

# (%) RV who voted: 2,792,130 (53%)

% of Voters by party: D-45%; R-49%; NP-6%

# Dem vs GOP: 111,685 more Republicans have voted

# Female vs Male: 335,056 more females have voted

# No Party: 167,528

Texas

# (%) RV who voted: 4,308,785

% of Voters by party: D-36%; R-54%; 10%

# Dem vs GOP: 775,581 more Republicans have voted

# Female vs Male: 344,703 more females have voted

# No Party: 430,879

Florida

# (%) RV who voted: 3,874.202

% Voters by party: D-35%; R-44%; NP-21%

# Dem vs GOP: 348,678 more Republicans have voted

# Female vs Male: 309,936 more females have voted

# No Party: 813,582

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