(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Cook Political Report moves Sedition Caucus member Scott Perry to 'toss-up' [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.'] Date: 2024-10-22 As many of you know, I haven’t been nearly as active as I normally would be in a presidential election cycle. That’s because for the better part of this year, I had to deal with my mother as well as my in-laws having health concerns. My in-laws’ issues were such that it wouldn't be feasible long-term for my wife to shuttle back and forth between Charlotte and her hometown in West Michigan, so we reluctantly decided to move to Michigan earlier this year. However, my mother took a nasty fall in February, and it wasn’t until just before Labor Day that we felt her recovery had progressed that we could leave with a clear conscience. Well, we finally moved here this weekend. Just as we were making final preparations, I laid eyes on what might be the first “holy effing crap” poll of this cycle. It came from PA-10, anchored in Harrisburg and York. South-central Pennsylvania, as most of us know, includes some of the reddest real estate in the Northeast. That’s why my eyebrows went into my hairline upon seeing a poll from Susquehanna Polling & Research showing six-term Republican incumbent Scott Perry—infamous for peddling conspiracy theories long his role in Donald Trump’s attempts to steal Pennsylvania’s electoral votes—was potentially facing the toughest race of his career. SP&R had him trailing his Democratic challenger, former local television anchorwoman Janelle Stelson, 48-39. Stelson is well known to people in this area from her many years as top anchorwoman at the area’s dominant NBC affiliate, WGAL in Lancaster. I was initially skeptical about this poll. even though SP&R is based in Harrisburg. After all, Perry has managed to hold on to this seat even after a court-ordered redistricting in 2018 made the district significantly less Republican than its predecessor. However, SP&R is in the top fourth of FiveThirtyEight’s pollster rankings, with a 2.3 star rating. Two developments, however, confirm that Perry is indeed in trouble. First, a week and a half ago, House Speaker Mike Johnson himself took a run to Perry’s district (diaried by Gramarye here). More importantly, over the weekend, Cook Political Report shifted the race to a pure toss-up. Cook Political’s original writeup is paywalled, but PoliticsPA has a good summary of Cook’s assessment. The CPR analysis made note of the fundraising prowess of Democratic challenger Janelle Stelson who brought in a massive total of $2.85 million, opposed to just $900,000 for Republican incumbent Scott Perry. “It’s become increasingly clear that the fundraising differential is taking a serious toll on the congressman,” wrote analyst Erin Covey. “Even as (former President Donald) Trump is on pace to win Pennsylvania’s 10th District again — he carried it by four points in 2020 — public and private polling show Perry underperforming Trump. The congressional race now looks neck-and-neck — and while the political environment should still favor Perry, his unique vulnerabilities, coupled with Democrats’ spending advantage, moves this race from Lean Republican to Toss Up.” Covey left out one thing. That same SP&R poll showed Kamala Harris leading Trump in the district, 46-41. It would be staggering in and of itself for a first-time challenger to outraise a six-term incumbent. But a Democratic challenger clobbering a six-term Republican opponent by over 3-to-1 in an ancestrally Republican district? That’s absolutely seismic—especially in a district where paid media is a bargain compared to next door in Philadelphia. It also makes it really hard to believe that Sen. Bob Casey is truly in a toss-up, as Cook Political assessed a few days later. Perry in danger, while Casey is in a toss-up? Does.. not… compute... According to PoliticsPA, Stelson hasn’t emphasized Perry’s membership in the Sedition Caucus. Rather, she’s focused on the other portions of his odious record. Stelson has shied away from emphasizing Perry’s actions in the aftermath of the 2020 election and has focused more on his record, including his co-sponsorship of the Life at Conception Act, support for social security cuts, and votes against the bipartisan bill providing protective gear for firefighters. Combine that with Perry’s attempts to help Trump steal another term, and you have a recipe for winning over people who have voted Republican for almost all of their lives. No wonder Johnson had to take a trip here. Perry currently sits in a district with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+5. However, he seems to think he still represents the significantly more rural and Republican district he held for his first three terms. That district had a PVI of R+11 before the 2018 redistricting carved away some congested-red territory in York County. In its place, he picked up all of Dauphin County, home to Harrisburg—in recent years, one of the few blue dots in the far southern portion of “the T.” He hasn’t had to answer for it until now, though. A little more perspective is in order. Before 2013, this district was the 19th, and just included York but not Harrisburg. Drilling down further, this district and its predecessors have been Repub for all but two terms since 1953. Like I said earlier, Stelson is winning over people who have voted Republican for almost all of their lives. Plus, six Democrats presently sit in D+5 districts. Namely, Josh Harder (CA-09), Jared Moskwitz (FL-23), Bill Foster (IL-11), Melanie Stansbury (NM-01), and Chrissy Houlahan (PA-06). NJ-03, which Andy Kim is giving up, is also D+5. We’d be in full panic mode if ANY of those seats were even remotely in danger. Imagine Hakeem Jeffries having to go to Albuquerque to rescue Stansbury. Put very simply, folks, if Stelson is able to finish this, in all likelihood the House has gone Democratic. More importantly, if Harris can win this district, in all likelihood she’s won Pennsylvania. After all, from what I know about Pennsylvania, a Republican has to run it up in the T to keep from drowning under the weight of Philly, the Philly suburbs, Pittsburgh, the inner Pittsburgh suburbs, and Scranton (sadly, Scranton’s twin city, Wilkes-Barre, is getting swamped in a sea of red). If Harris can carry this district, though, Trump could run the table in the rest of the state and still won’t have enough votes. And as we all know, if we keep Pennsylvania blue, Kamala is president. That means Democrats and never-Trumpers in south-central Pennsylvania can not only elect an actual congresswoman, but can potentially slam the door on Trumpism once and for all. Let’s help Stelson finish this—send her some love here. [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/22/2278739/-Cook-Political-Report-moves-Sedition-Caucus-member-Scott-Perry-to-toss-up?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=more_community&pm_medium=web Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/