(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . These Races Have Very Favorable Odds Now. What Districts Could Fall in a Worst Case Scenario? [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.'] Date: 2024-10-19 Many of the races (rated “Likely Democratic”) I have already covered would be considered long shot races for the GOP to win. Whether it is the strength of the Democratic incumbent or the lean of the district, some races just aren’t as favorable to their candidates as they should be. But what if the polls are wrong and Trump wins in a (relative) landslide? There is another tier of long shot races that could come into play at that point. Don’t worry too much — even in that scenario we’re talking about races with underfunded candidates and other advantages for Democrats. Yet I remember the ones I didn’t write about in 2022 — there were three close races with Democratic incumbents — that were those extreme long shot races. For the Republican Party, there are nine such races. Alabama’s 2nd district, Maryland’s 6th district, Michigan’s 3rd district, New Hampshire’s 1st district, New Hampshire’s 2nd district, New York’s 3rd district, Oregon’s 6th district, Virginia’s 10th district, and Washington’s 8th district all have candidates that for whatever reason haven’t caught on with donors. These are the particulars for each race. Alabama-2: Shomari Figures Who?: Shomari Figures is a former deputy chief of staff to Merrick Garland amongst other prominent roles. is a former deputy chief of staff to Merrick Garland amongst other prominent roles. Key Results: 2020 President — Biden 55.7%, Trump 43.3% 2022 House — N/A Key issues: health care, immigration, abortion Why our candidate should win: majority Black district, racially polarized voting, MVP Harris top of the ticket Why the GOP has a chance: strong fundraising, open seat, AL Democratic Party is terrible read this diary by Markos for more information. Maryland-6: April McClain-Delaney Who?: April McClain-Delaney is a former official in the Department of Commerce and a media lawyer. is a former official in the Department of Commerce and a media lawyer. Key Results: 2020 President — Biden 53.9%, Trump 44.1% 2022 House — Rep. David Trone 54.7%, Neil Parrott 45.1% Key issues: health care, immigration, abortion Why our candidate should win: GOP candidate has been rejected before, uncompetitive state Why the GOP has a chance: polling suggests a close race, Hogan running for Senate, open seat Michigan-3: Rep. Hillary Scholten Who?: Rep. Hillary Scholten is the incumbent representative for MI-03. Before Congress, she was an immigration attorney. is the incumbent representative for MI-03. Before Congress, she was an immigration attorney. Key Results: 2020 President — Biden 53.3%, Trump 44.8% 2022 House — Hillary Scholten 54.9%, John Gibbs 42.0% Key issues: immigration, abortion, inflation Why our candidate should win: strong incumbent, district trending our way Why the GOP has a chance: ancestrally GOP district, challenger isn’t extreme Read this diary for more information. New Hampshire-1: Rep. Chris Pappas Who?: Rep. Chris Pappas is the incumbent representative for NH-01. Before Congress, he was on the NH Executive Council. Key Results: 2020 President — Biden 52.2%, Trump 46.2% 2022 House — Rep. Chris Pappas 54.0%, Karoline Leavitt 45.9% Key issues: inflation, abortion, immigration Why our candidate should win: strong incumbent, Trump not contesting New Hampshire Why the GOP has a chance: lean of the district New Hampshire-2: Maggie Goodlander Who?: Maggie Goodlander taught constitutional law, was in the US Navy Reserve, and was an aide to two Senators. Most recently she was a Deputy ADA in the Antitrust Division of the DoJ. taught constitutional law, was in the US Navy Reserve, and was an aide to two Senators. Most recently she was a Deputy ADA in the Antitrust Division of the DoJ. Key Results: 2020 President — Biden 53.6%, Trump 44.7% 2022 House — Rep. Ann McKuster 55.8%, Bob Burns 44.0% Key issues: democracy, abortion, immigration, inflation Why our candidate should win: Trump not contesting New Hampshire, weak challenger Why the GOP has a chance: bitter and late primary election, open seat New York-3: Rep. Tom Suozzi Who?: Rep. Tom Suozzi is the incumbent representative for NY-03. He was mayor of Glen Cove and Nassau County Executive. is the incumbent representative for NY-03. He was mayor of Glen Cove and Nassau County Executive. Key Results: 2020 President — Biden 55.2%, Trump 43.8%. 2024 House Special — Tom Suozzi 53.9%, Mazi Melesa Pilip 45.9% Key issues: inflation, abortion, immigration Why our candidate should win: very strong incumbent, abortion rights amendment on the ballot, weak challenger Why the GOP has a chance: Long Island trending sharply to the right Oregon-6: Rep. Andrea Salinas Who?: Rep. Andrea Salinas is the incumbent representative for OR-06. She was also a state representative and legislative aide. is the incumbent representative for OR-06. She was also a state representative and legislative aide. Key Results: 2020 President — Biden 55.2%, Trump 42.1% 2022 House — Andrea Salinas 50.0%, Mike Erickson 47.5% Key issues: abortion, health care, immigration Why our candidate should win: GOP candidate has been rejected before, lean of the district Why the GOP has a chance: polling suggests a close race, weak incumbent Virginia-10: Suhas Subramanyam Who?: Suhas Subramanyam is a state representative and attorney in northern Virginia is a state representative and attorney in northern Virginia Key Results: 2020 President — Biden 58.3%, Trump 40.2% 2022 House — Rep. Jennifer Wexton 53.1%, Hung Cao 46.6% Key issues: government spending, abortion, inflation Why our candidate should win: lean of the district, weak challenger, uncompetitive state Why the GOP has a chance: closer race than normal in 2022, open seat Washington-8: Rep. Kim Schrier Who?: Rep. Kim Schrier is the incumbent representative for WA-08. She was a pediatrician before joining Congress. Key Results: 2020 President — Biden 52.0%, Trump 45.3% 2022 House — Rep. Kim Schrier 53.3%, Matt Larkin 46.4% Key issues: abortion, inflation, immigration Why our candidate should win: very weak challenger, uncompetitive state, cleared 50% in Top 2 primary Why the GOP has a chance: lean of the district These are the races that we are favored in but could still theoretically lose. We are probably winning all nine of these races and likely by a significant margin. But it is always possible one challenger will catch lightning in a bottle and still make it competitive our win outright. 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