(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . The Poly Market Prediction Platform is Grade A+ B**lshit --Ignore it! [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.'] Date: 2024-10-19 From Simon Rosenberg “Over the past two weeks, the chances of a Trump victory in the November election have surged on Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market. Its bettors were giving Trump a 60% chance of winning on Friday, while Harris’s chances were 40%. The candidates were in a dead heat at the start of October. Trump’s gains on Polymarket have cheered his supporters, and they have been followed by the odds shifting in Trump’s favor in other betting markets. Elon Musk flagged Trump’s growing lead on Polymarket to his 200 million X followers on Oct. 6, praising the concept of betting markets. “More accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line,” Musk posted. But the surge might be a mirage manufactured by a group of four Polymarket accounts that have collectively pumped about $30 million of crypto into bets that Trump will win.” I mean how can this possibly be a scam if psychotic billionaire and pro-Trump Vance bro, Peter Thiel, is one of the lead investors in the PolyMarket betting platform?? Also, Nate Silver works for Polymarket. Given all this, one would think the media hawking this garbage as a viable methodology might be concerned about a conflict of interest, but gee, what do I know? Newsweek just posted an article: Miguel Morel, CEO of crypto analysis firm Arkham Intelligence, reportedly said that there was a "strong reason to believe" that all four Polymarket accounts that are betting heavily on Trump "are the same entity." The accounts—Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro and Michie—reportedly created between June and earlier this month, were all funded using the same cryptocurrency exchange and all have similar betting patterns. The article also suggests, as does Rosenberg, that the lead in the bogus platform may also be used to propagate the myth of a stolen election when Harris wins, serving the same function as watered down bullshit polls that we have seen flooding the zone. Crypto investor Adam Cochran told the newspaper that the Trump Polymarket surge could be part of an attempt to make potential future false claims of a "stolen" election appear more plausible if Trump loses to Harris next month. Political strategist Tom Bonier, senior adviser at research firm TargetSmart, told Fortune that he believes the Trump bets are part of "a coordinated effort to change the perception of this race." "A central argument has emerged in the closing weeks of this campaign: strength versus weakness," Bonier said. "Donald Trump's persona, and therefore his support from voters, relies on being seen as strong. But if the public perception is that he will lose, that all falls apart." Harry Enten, of 538 infamy, is hawking this sketchy Vegas-style bullshit on CNN as if this is legitimate data tool: spoiler alert, It isn’t! It is untraceable, unregulated, off-shore bullshit. I wonder how much Harry is in for here? One curious tidbit concerning the efficacy of betting markets in predicting elections: Rajiv Sethi—an economist who coauthored a paper that concluded $7 million in bets placed on GOP Senator Mitt Romney by a single person before the 2012 presidential election were attempted manipulation—had similar thoughts on the Polymarket Trump bets. In conclusion, let me say this: people are saying PA is in trouble for our side again, based on some outlier ( and frankly sketchy) polls. Elon Musk also claimed credit, so obviously it has got to be real. LOL. This simply is not true, Democrats are leading in the early vote in Pennsylvania, by a decent margin (55%-43%). That is the current early vote in PA by the actual numbers, not from some poll or betting, these are real time numbers. One would think actual voting patterns would mean more than fake polls and crypto-funded prediction markets. [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/19/2277979/-The-Poly-Market-Prediction-Platform-is-Grade-A-B-lshit-Ignore-it?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=more_community&pm_medium=web Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/