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It is officially a toss-up race (the word from Bitecofer [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2024-10-18  

Many of you know Rachel Bitecofer, the political scientists and pollster, who has made right calls, when most professional pundits were mistaken. Her main thesis is that there is not such thing as a swing voter (at least not in numbers that actually matter) but that election turn on coalition turnout.

I have been following her Xitter feed for sanity sake, as she punched statistical holes in Nate Silver’s aggregations and so on but today, she posted something on her feed that is concerning. While she had been quite confident that the underlying trends favored Harris, today she made a pivot. This election really could go either way. At this point, it is a complete waste of time and a counterproductive coping mechanism to keep unskewing polls and complaining about sampling biases. Since many here no long frequent Xitter, I have pasted the text of her post below:

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/story/2024/10/18/2277718/-It-is-officially-a-toss-up-race-the-word-from-Bitecofer

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