(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . New poll: You'll be shocked how many people expect a landslide election [1] ['Daily Kos Staff'] Date: 2024-10-16 Most voters are bracing for a close election and expect not to know the winner until after Election Day, according to new polling from Civiqs for Daily Kos. And yet over a fourth think the election will be a landslide, and a third expect to find out the results on Election Day. In the mid-October survey, 61% of registered voters expect that the election will be close. This expectation is attuned to the state of the race, where national and swing-state polls find Vice President Kamala Harris and Donald Trump locked in a tight race and their leads often within the margin of error. However, 28% of voters expect one candidate to win in a “landslide,” defined as a result in which “one candidate will win by a lot.” It’s unclear whether voters are imagining a victory like Barack Obama’s in 2008—where he won 365 electoral votes—or like Ronald Reagan’s in 1984—where he won the entire map, excluding Minnesota and Washington, D.C. Expectations of a landslide are higher among Republican voters (38%) than Democrats (25%) or independents (22%). Older voters also are less likely to think that the election will be close: Less than a fifth of voters ages 18 to 34 (18%) think it’ll be a landslide, while over a third of those ages 50 to 64 (37%) think so. Regardless, expectations of a landslide suggest many voters are either not aware of the race’s tight polling or believe the polling is wrong. x Datawrapper Content A third of voters (37%) expect another sort of unlikely thing: to know on Election Day who won the presidential contest. Republicans (46%) and voters who watch Fox News frequently (56%) are especially likely to believe so. The older a voter, the more likely they are to think we’ll know earlier, as well. x Datawrapper Content This comes despite it taking four days for the Associated Press to call the 2020 election, as they—and the world—waited for ballots to be counted in Pennsylvania. And many news organizations expect this year’s election to take as long or even longer. That’s because the polls show a much tighter race this year than in 2020. Back then, Joe Biden led Trump by nearly 11 points nationally on Oct. 16, 2020, while Harris leads Trump by only 2.6 points as of Wednesday afternoon. Additionally, the Republican National Committee—which is poisoned with Trump sycophants and family members—is already planning to challenge the election results. Reuters reports that the RNC is “involved in more than 120 lawsuits across 26 states.” These lawsuits could drag out the vote counting, further delaying an election call. Democrats (50%) and independents (43%) are much more likely than Republicans to believe it will take “a few days” to know the election winner. But 1 in 10 voters think we won’t know for “weeks.” Still, a third of the electorate expecting to know the results on Election Day makes sense if 28% are expecting a landslide. And Americans would probably know the winner on the night of Nov. 5 if Harris wins North Carolina or if Trump takes one of the so-called Blue Wall states (Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.) Outside of that, though, it seems more likely this drags on. Regardless of the election results, one thing that’s more certain: Trump will claim to have won—before all the votes are counted—and won by a landslide. x In addition to winning the Electoral College in a landslide, I won the popular vote if you deduct the millions of people who voted illegally — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 27, 2016 Looking to volunteer to help get out the vote? Click here to view multiple ways you can help reach voters—textbanking, phonebanking, letters, postcards, parties, canvassing. We’ve got you covered! [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/16/2277262/-New-poll-Most-voters-expect-the-election-to-be-a-nail-biter?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_7&pm_medium=web Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/