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State of the Race Based on only the More Reliable Polls [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2024-10-06  

Many here have pointed out that there are right-wing, or otherwise unreliable, polls that are affecting the polling averages that we are seeing on pundit’s websites. Because of my own ever-present anxiety about the election, I did a “marginally scientific” analysis of the polls, whereby I used only the more reliable pollster’s numbers, and I thought I’d share the numbers I came up with.

First, here is what I did. I started with 538.com’s list of recent polls. Then, using the pollster ratings from both the 538 website and Nate Silver’s “Silver Bulletin”, I discarded all the pollsters that either have very low ratings or are not on their ratings lists. Then, I discarded all the pollsters that have known party connections (to either party) or other widely-recognized biases. For all of the remaining pollsters, I assigned them a weight, depending on their ratings. I also weighed each poll according to how recent it is (I only went back 3 weeks).

Anyway, I am not claiming that my method is as good as those aggregators that have much more experience and expertise on this than I do. My main reason for doing this was to get an idea of what happens when we throw out all questionable pollsters. So, here are the (admittedly crude) results (I used minus signs in some cases because it pains me to even write her opponent’s name).

Nevada: Harris +2.88

Wisconsin: Harris +2.5

Michigan: Harris +2.25

Pennsylvania: Harris +2.02

North Carolina: Harris -0.39

Georgia: Harris -1.55

Arizona: Harris -1.63

National: Harris +3.59

All of the above numbers, except for Georgia and Arizona, are somewhat better for us than those currently found on pundit websites. By the way, for Florida, I could find only one reliable poll in the last 3 weeks, which had Harris down by 3%, so obviously there was insufficient data for Florida.

Of course, no one knows how far off, on average, the polls will be this year. In 2022, the polls underestimated the Democrats by over 2% in most states, but in 2020 they overestimated Biden and the senate by something like 4%. I am optimistic that, like in 2022 they are underestimating democratic enthusiasm, particularly on the abortion issue, this year. If the polls are off in 2024 in the way they were in 2022, so that we add, say, 2% to the polling averages, then we would end up winning all seven of the swing states, giving us 319 electoral votes.

Meanwhile, please vote as early as possible, get all of your sane friends to vote as early as possible, donate as you are able (as early as possible), and volunteer as much as you can. I am about to write another 20 letters for Vote Forward.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/6/2275101/-State-of-the-Race-Based-on-only-the-More-Reliable-Polls?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=more_community&pm_medium=web

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