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Independents go for Walz [1]

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Date: 2024-10-02  

Here is a very salient factoid from a poll by Politico:

...Walz had a commanding advantage with independents, 58 percent of whom sided with the Minnesota governor while 42 percent gave Vance the edge. Respondents were similarly divided on which contender would be a better vice president, with an equal 47-47 split between Vance and Walz, with 7 percent unsure. Walz again had the advantage among independents, with 44 percent preferring him as vice president versus 36 percent choosing Vance.

This is an important finding, as the battle for independents is so huge in this election.

I’d be curious to know people’s thoughts on why this happened.

Most of the high information voter class seems to think that Vance had the better debate performance, and I certainly think that (a) Vance exceeded expectations, largely by projecting a kinder, gentler, and false version of himself; and (b) Walz was not as successful in identifying and pushing back against the false narratives being perpetrated by Vance as many of us would have liked.

Having said that, it seems to me that

• Independents seemed to like Walz’ nice guy/non-confrontational approach to the debate; perhaps that is valued more among independents than partisans realize

• Walz noted areas of agreement, which I think independents also like

• There was some “recency bias,” in that Walz’ best moment came at the end when he zinged Vance on supporting election results. OR: the concern over “democracy,” as many people put it, is more profound and important for independents than many observers think it is. A takeaway for me is that the Harris Walz campaign would do well to hammer at the Jan 6 issue with a vengeance in the last 2-3 weeks before the election.

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