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Nate Silver: most likely scenario is a VP Harris sweep but there are major caveats [1]

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Date: 2024-09-30  

I strongly suspect that the polls are understating the electoral support of Vice President Kamala Harris. Nate Silver's 538 is an aggregator and the aggregators are only as good as the poll numbers you put into it. There are a huge number of pollsters out with polls that don't have any track record or minimal track record and haven't earned respect based upon accuracy and sound polling methodology. The other day I looked at the top 25 polls listed on 538 and not one of them was a well-known , well-respected pollster with a strong polling history and known to have sound polling methodology, whether they obtained good or neutral or bad results for our nominee. This is a problem. The subgroup numbers of New York Times polls are literally incredible, not credible. The response ratio has dropped precipitously. Because of caller ID, we are in danger of losing a random sample. The fact that Democratic Party candidates have outperformed polls in the last 50 special elections by 3.8 percentage points since Dobbs tells us that the polls are understating Vice President Harris' support.

I'm not a huge Nate Silver fan. Yes, the single most likely outcome of the 538 model is a sweep of the swing states by Vice President Kamala Harris, but that is only a plurality of the outcomes, not at all a majority. The second most likely scenario is that Donald Trump sweeps the swing states. So, there are major caveats to this.

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Most Likely Kamala Harris Scenario Is 7 Swing State Sweep—Nate Silver Model The most likely scenario in polling analyst Nate Silver's presidential model is that Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, wins all seven swing states in November's election. . Harris won all seven swing states 15,273 times out of 70,000 simulations of Silver's model run on Sunday. The next most likely scenario is that Trump wins all seven swing states. The former president won all the swing states 13,912 out of the 70,000 simulations. Silver said there is roughly a 40 percent chance that either Harris or Trump will take all of the swing states amid this year's election.

I suspect that Vice President Kamala Harris is winning by between 4% and 5% nationally and if she does that, she almost certainly wins the electoral college.

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