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Pundits and Pollsters Predict: State of the Race(s), 9/29 [1]

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Date: 2024-09-29  

Electoral-vote.com (E-V) : Harris 276, Trump 262, ties 0 (Harris steady, ties move towards Trump). The NC and AZ ties from last week move to slight leads for Trump. We will actually see a lot of this from this site, as more recent polls with even slight margins will regularly flip tossup states back and forth.

Overall: Harris’ electoral vote lead remains steady this week, with some sites showing slight movement towards her while others show the same towards Trump. Her overall electoral vote count is in the 276-286 range across all sites (except those that maintain a strict “tossup” category, where Harris maintains a pretty consistent 226-219 edge with 93 tossups). Harris consistently leads in WI, MI, PA, and NV. Most sites give Trump the advantage in NC, GA, and AZ.

Welcome to week 5 of my tracking of polls and pundits — so you don’t have to do it all yourself! We are also just over 5 weeks from election day, and I will post right up to the weekend before. This week I’ll wrap up my comments on the methodologies of the various political sites tracking the election.

538: Harris 286, Trump 252 (slight movement towards Trump, down 3 from last week). Tossup states remain PA, NC, GA, AZ and NV (these are states where neither candidate has reached a 60% chance of winning). Harris keeps a narrow edge in PA and NV; Trump does so in NC, GA, and AZ.

The Economist: Harris 281, Trump 257 (slight movement towards Harris, up 4). Harris holds a narrow edge in WI, MI, PA, and NV; Trump in NC, AZ, and GA.

Princeton Election Consortium (PEC): Median of 279 electoral votes for Harris (slight shift towards Trump, down from 285 last week). Key (“moneyball”) states are AZ, NC, and GA.

JHK Forecasts: Harris 286, Trump 252 (slight shift towards Harris). Closest D states: PA and WI. Closest R states: NC, GA. The JHK site allows you to view several different models, from polling-only to a “Plus” model based on polling, fundamentals, and “experts.” JHK draws data from multiple sites that I am tracking, including FiveThirtyEight, InsideElections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. The electoral vote count I present here is from the “Standard” model (polling + fundamentals).

270towin.com (270): Harris 226, Trump 219, tossups 93 (No change from last week). This is 270towin’s “consensus” map, which is a composite of forecasts by multiple sites.

Sabato's Crystal Ball: Updated September 25th with no change to state ratings — still Harris 226, Trump 219, tossups 93 (tossups are WI, MI, PA, NC, GA, AZ, and NV).

Cook Political Report: No update — still Harris 226, Trump 219, same toss-ups.

InsideElections.com: No change — Harris 226, Trump 219, same toss-ups.

CNN: Unchanged — Harris 225, Trump 219, tossups 94.

Real Clear Politics (RCP): Harris 215, Trump 219 (movement towards Trump), 104 tossups (MN, WI, MI, PA, NC, GA, AZ, and NV). These guys are hilarious — they just moved MN to the tossup category. However, their “no tossups” map still stands at Harris 276, Trump 262. RCP is a polling aggregator and like all such sites has their own method for which polls they accept, what time frame is covered, etc. Their methodology just has a consistent lean towards the GOP.

State averages/forecasts (ECON=The Economist):

State E-V 270 ECON JHK RCP WI D +2 D +2.6 D +1 D +1.7 D +1.0 MI D +3 D +2.6 D +2 D +2.1 D +1.7 PA D +2 D +1.5 D +1 D +1.5 D +0.4 NC R +1 R +0.5 R +2 R +1.1 R +1.4 GA R +1 R +1.1 R +1 R +1.1 R +1.5 FL R +3 R +4.3 R +6 R +4.2 R +6.0 AZ R +2 R +2 R +1 R +1.7 R +2.0 NV D +4 D +2.1 D +1 D +1.9 D +1.2

The Senate:

Montana is looking worse for the Democrats, as Sheehy seems to now have a consistent lead over Tester. As a result, most sites are now putting the Senate at 48 or 49 D to 51 R, with OH generally seen as a toss-up. The good news: polling aggregators still show Brown with an edge in OH. Also, it does not appear that Hogan is gaining real traction against Alsobrooks in MD, though I’ll continue to track this another week at least before dropping it. The better news: the R seat in NE looks like a genuine pick-up opportunity, with the pundits (Cook, Sabato) behind the polling sites in picking up on this. I’ll continue to track FL and TX, as these are the other best opportunities for an upset of R incumbents, though the odds are still against it.

Electoral-vote.com: Still D 50, R 50, but with Cruz back in the lead in Texas while independent Osborn now leads Republican Fischer in Nebraska. E-V puts this in the D column, which makes sense given Osborn’s positions on most issues.

270towin: Still at D 48, R 51, 1 tossup (OH)

Princeton Election Consortium: No change — D 49, R 51, with GOP pickups in WV and MT.

JHK Forecasts: D 49, R 51 (pickups in WV and MT).

Sabato’s Crystal Ball: No update — D 48, R 51, 1 tossup (OH).

Cook Political Report: D 47, R 51 (pickups in MT and WV), 2 tossups (MI, OH).

Inside Elections: D 48, R 50 (pickups in MT and WV), 1 tossup (OH).

RCP: No change - D 44, R 50 (pickups in MT and WV), and 6 tossups (MI, OH, PA, MD, FL, and AZ). Their no toss-up Senate map has D 49, R 51.

Senate Averages/Forecasts:

State E-V 270 JHK PEC RCP Sabato Cook MT R +6 R +7.5 R +3.2 R +7.0 R +5.2 Lean R Lean R WI D +7 D +5.6 D +6 D +5.5 D +4.5 Lean D Lean D MI D +3 D +7.9 D +6.6 D +5.0 D +4.7 Lean D Tossup OH D +4 D +1.5 D 2.2 R +0.1 D +3.7 Tossup Tossup PA D +6 D +7.2 D 6.8 D +7.0 D +5.2 Lean D Lean D AZ D +9 D +8.0 D +8.2 D +6.0 D +6.0 Lean D Lean D NV D +12 D +10.2 D +10.8 D +11.2 D +10 Lean D Lean D NE I +1 R +1 R +10.2 R +1.0 NA Likely R Likely R FL R +4 R +2.6 R +4.3 R +4.2 R +4.3 Likely R Likely R TX R +4 R +3.0 R +3.0 R +3.0 R +5 Likely R Likely R MD D +13 D +10.2 D +12.5 D +11.6 D +7.6 Likely D Likely D

What do you think? Are the polls underestimating post-Dobbs Democratic support? Is Harris doing better in NC, GA, and AZ then we’re seeing here? Should the Democrats be sinking more resources into GOTV in MT and OH (I say yes)? Can we actually win in NE?

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