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Study predicts Harris-Walz landslide win [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2024-09-22  

Thomas Miller is a widely respected data scientist from Northwestern University. Miller developed a model that uses data from political betting sites rather than polls.

Miller outperformed almost every pollster and modeler parsing multiple voter surveys in all three of the 2020 contests. Except for Georgia, he correctly identified every state in the electoral college, missing by just 12 votes the margin that Biden won. Miller improved his methodology for classifying Peach State data for the two Senate runoffs, and he achieved another victory. — Economic Times

In an interview with Fortune, Miller said, “Political betting sites are the best at predicting the wisdom of the crowd.” Polling data, according to Miller, is backward-looking, while betting sites with a steady stream of investors are a much better measure of future outcomes.

“It's gone from a drastic landslide in Trump's direction to a drastic landslide for Harris,” said Miller. He said it would now take an equally dramatic shift in Trump’s favor for the ex-president to come back into contention. Miller said as things stood now it appeared as if Harris would win big on November 5. — Benzinga

Shawn Tully, in his Fortune article, wrote:

“Miller’s view merits close attention for two basic reasons: First, it’s based on numbers-crunching that’s arguably a lot more scientific than the voter surveys almost always cited to chart the contest’s trajectory, and second, he achieved pinpoint accuracy four years ago.”

You can learn more about Miller’s methodology, and latest predictions at his X/Twitter account: https://x.com/virtualtout?lang=en

PS

There are a few comments that state that posts like this breed complacency. I beg to differ.

More information, data, and better data models are never negative. One should never be complacent, but this single data point should be a sign that what we are doing is working and that we need to do more, not less.

The study shows a volatile electorate that swung from a Trump landslide to a Harris landslide in weeks. That should be enough to keep anyone from getting comfortable, as there is still time for more dramatic shifts.

The biggest reason for making positive data as public as possible is that everyone loves a winner, and no one wants to support a loser. As Harris’s momentum starts to look unstoppable to voters and Trump's campaign looks more and more like a clown car that can’t get anything right, it becomes a feedback loop. It’s gotten to the point where even the media can’t keep up the charade of a horse race. Harris starts looking more and more like chief executive material and a competent leader, while Trump looks more and more like a sad, confused, desperate old man whose time is past.

This study may be completely wrong, and things could be razor close. However, perception is as important in voters' minds as reality. Trump knows that better than anybody, which is why he is panicking.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/9/22/2272083/-Study-predicts-Harris-Walz-landslide-win?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web

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