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Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: What winning feels like [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2024-09-20  

Nate Cohn/New York Times:

Harris Ahead in Pennsylvania and Tied Nationally? Unpacking an Unexpected Result. Although it could simply reflect the normal variation of polling results, it may also point to a declining Trump edge in the Electoral College. Usually, I’d say that this is probably just statistical noise — the inevitable variation in poll results inherent to random sampling. And it might well be, as we shall see. But I think it’s hard to assume that this is simply noise, for two reasons: It’s what we’ve shown before . It’s easy enough to dismiss any single poll result as a statistical fluke. But we’ve now found similar results in our last two polls of the nation and Pennsylvania.

This is becoming a trend among high-quality pollsters. Yes, our poll average shows Ms. Harris doing better nationally than in Pennsylvania, but if you focus only on higher-quality polls (which we call “select pollsters” in our table), the story is a bit different. Over the last month, a lot of these polls show Ms. Harris doing relatively poorly nationwide, but doing well in the Northern battleground states.

x So far we’ve had 27 non-partisan high quality (2.0+⭐️ rating per @FiveThirtyEight) national & battleground state polls conducted entirely post-debate



Averages in places with more than 1 poll:

• US: 🔵 Harris +2.8

• MI: 🔵 Harris +3.0

• PA: 🔵 Harris +1.8

• WI: 🔵 Harris +0.5 pic.twitter.com/DP8ZUgVxPf — Adam Carlson (@admcrlsn) September 19, 2024

Associated Press/NORC:

Voters have a more positive view of Harris than Trump Majorities of both Democratic and Republican registered voters think their respective candidate has the electoral advantage. With two months remaining until the general election, a larger share of registered voters believe Kamala Harris will win compared to Donald Trump. However, a fifth think both candidates have an equal shot at the White House. Majorities of both Democratic registered voters and Republican registered voters think their respective candidate will win, while there is no consensus among independent registered voters… Registered voters also have more positive views of Harris than Trump as a candidate. While an equal share believe Harris and Trump are each tough enough to be president, slightly more think Harris would fight for people like them and would change the country for the better compared with Trump. And 6 in 10 think Trump will say anything to win the election compared with 4 in 10 who think the same about Harris

That, there, is why Trump’s lies about immigrants and Springfield, Ohio don’t help him.

x NEW: Here is a full list of all the Teamsters councils that have endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris. That's a total of over 1 MILLION Teamsters union members & 8 of the councils represent battleground states. This is huge. pic.twitter.com/avoetR1IkJ — Victor Shi (@Victorshi2020) September 19, 2024

Teamsters have approximately 1.4 million members, it’s the states the Councils and locals represent that matter. [Joint councils represent active and retired members.]

x NEW: @MorningConsult state-level tracking shows Harris surging post-debate.



AZ: Harris +1

GA: Trump +1

MI: Harris +8

NV: Harris +4

NC: Harris +2

PA: Harris +2

WI: Harris +6https://t.co/YHYHfirRw1 — Cameron Easley (@cameron_easley) September 19, 2024

Here’s the CNN story that sparked a firestorm:

‘I’m a black NAZI!’: NC GOP nominee for governor made dozens of disturbing comments on porn forum Many of Robinson’s comments were gratuitously sexual and lewd in nature. They were made between 2008 and 2012 on “Nude Africa,” a pornographic website that includes a message board. The comments were made under the username minisoldr, a moniker Robinson used frequently online. Robinson listed his full name on his profile for Nude Africa, as well as an email address he used on numerous websites across the internet for decades. CNN is reporting only a small portion of Robinson’s comments on the website given their graphic nature.

Note how quickly the GOP is running away:

x She's done candidate events with him going back at least 4 years https://t.co/I0b1VwVPjc pic.twitter.com/JTp6VTQRRZ — Joe Perticone (@JoePerticone) September 19, 2024

New phone. Who dat?

Steven Beschloss/”America, America” on Substack:

Politico to Kamala Harris: Can't You Be More Undisciplined? Searching for trouble, Politico hates that the VP stays on message Politico seemed annoyed when Vice President Kamala Harris did an interview with the National Association of Black Journalists and stayed focused. “Harris refuses to veer off script in her second high-profile interview,” the Politico headline complained. The story went on to say that “she did not break much ground or stray far from her talking points.” Apparently, by not talking about sharks or Hannibal Lecter or otherwise drifting into incoherence, she disappointed the reporters. As if the vice president, who has been running a brilliantly successful campaign in a highly accelerated timeline, should be criticized for their failure to find a more compelling angle for their coverage.

x Crystal Ball's @JMilesColeman to @AndySpecht in an interview on this decision: It's not only the CNN story but also the fact that this morning Josh Stein was endorsed by 50+ GOP former state lawmakers and other insiders.



Here's our article on that: https://t.co/Te0BFeP9Me #ncpol https://t.co/OdEANOm947 — Will Doran (@will_doran) September 19, 2024

NOTUS:

Democrats Are Building the Ground Game They Wish They’d Had in 2020. They’re Not Sure How Much It’ll Matter. Democrats have regrets about their campaigning during the pandemic. This year, they’re going all out to make sure they leave nothing to chance. Democratic field programs have traditionally been most effective in cities, organizers say, where population density makes walking door-to-door easier and where large concentrations of the party’s voters live. That’s where Democrats think they suffered the most in 2020, with many solid party supporters failing to turn out and helping Trump make surprising gains relative to 2016 in places like Philadelphia and Detroit. (Many of these Democrats also caution that field programs weren’t the only reason Trump did better in cities during the last election, citing his improved standing among some Black voters.) Many urban voters were “not being really reached” by Democrats’ digital campaigns in 2020, said Michael Podhorzer, a veteran Democratic strategist and former political director for the AFL-CIO. “That’s where door-to-door canvassing comes in because it creates buzz in the community.” Given that he and most others expect the election to be decided by a half-point or less in many swing states, he added, that extra boost could be decisive.

x Vice President Harris appears to have closed the economic "trust gap."



46% of voters said they trust Harris to handle the economy — the same share as Trump, according to Morning Consult.



A separate poll by the Financial Times shows Harris with a slight edge over Trump on the… — Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) September 19, 2024

Jonathan Chait/New York Magazine:

Vance: Trump’s Health-Care Plan Is to Let Insurers Charge More for Preexisting Conditions The concept of a plan is pretty horrifying. Cheap plans could be sold to people who were young and healthy. Oftentimes, those plans denied coverage for any preexisting condition, or had hidden limits on the amount the insurer would have to pay, so if you got very sick, you would discover you faced ruinous costs not covered by your insurance. Obamacare turned that dysfunctional individual market into a market that offered affordable plans even for people who aren’t young and healthy. It did this by restricting the degree to which insurers can charge higher rates based on age (they can only make older customers pay a maximum of three times the rate they charge young customers). More importantly, it prevented insurers from screening out customers with a preexisting condition or denying coverage for necessary procedures. Those regulations do have costs. They prevent insurers from cherry-picking young and healthy customers with cheap bare-bones plans — which means young and healthy people might pay more than they did before Obamacare. But it also means the individual insurance market actually makes coverage and medical care available to people who need it.

x MSNBC with a banger headline about House Republicans being completely incapable of governing with a looming government shutdown.



🍿 pic.twitter.com/CXgfDVHkT1 — Art Candee 🍿🥤 (@ArtCandee) September 19, 2024

Here it is: The House GOP has concepts of a plan to prevent a shutdown.

Daniel Dale/CNN:

Fact check: 12 completely fictional stories Trump has told in the last month Former President Donald Trump is littering his public remarks with fictional stories. This isn’t run-of-the-mill political spin, the kind of statistic-twisting and accomplishment-exaggerating that political candidates of all stripes engage in. Rather, the Republican presidential nominee is telling colorful lies that are completely untethered to reality. Trump’s inflammatory assertion about immigrants in Springfield, Ohio, whom he baselessly accused at the September presidential debate of eating people’s dogs and cats, has received the most attention. But Trump’s lower-profile recent public appearances, like rallies and interviews, have also featured wholly imaginary tales.

x OK, let's recap what we got from Pennsylvania since Monday:



Quinnipiac: Harris up 51/46 [it's 51/45 in H2H]

NYT: Harris up 49/45

Suffolk: Harris up 49/46

F&M: Harris up 49/46

WaPo: Harris up 48/47 [it's 48/48 in H2H]

Marist: tied 49/49

Emerson: Trump up 48/47

IA: Trump up 50/48 https://t.co/1v7rKPbUVc — Taniel (@Taniel) September 19, 2024

Hal Sparks and Cliff Schecter on ... well, you’ll see:

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