(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: The 8th battleground state? [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.'] Date: 2024-09-19 We begin today with a bunch of polling that dropped just before and after midnight beginning with the latest Marist Poll of the battleground states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. x Well, it does look like all we're going to get tonight is this story (Marist says they posted polls on their site but have not!). So with caveat above, the numbers here are: Harris 52/47 in MI, & 50/49 in WI. Tie at 49 in PA.https://t.co/IJiAwNOnTa — Taniel (@Taniel) September 19, 2024 As the Bolts magazine Editor-in-chief Daniel Nichanian (writing on X/Twitter as “Taniel”) pointed out, Marist did not post these polls on their website so we have to rely on The Hill writer Alex Gangitano for some of the details of that Marist poll, for now. In Michigan, Harris’s lead narrowed among independents, with 49 percent supporting her and 47 percent supporting Trump. Trump led with 50 percent, compared to 48 percent for Harris, among white voters, and Harris led with 77 percent, compared to 21 percent for Trump, among Black voters. Among male and female voters in Michigan, the electorate was split: Trump led Harris, 52 percent to 47 percent, among men and Harris led Trump, 56 percent to 41 percent, among women. In Wisconsin, Harris had a wider lead among independents only, ahead of Trump 51 percent compared to his 47 percent. Harris received 50 percent support from white voters, while Trump received 49 percent support, and Harris led 56 percent compared to Trump’s 43 percent among nonwhite voters. But wait, there’s more polls! (All of which should be taken with a grain of salt but the trends are nice.) Steve Ulrich of PoliticsPA reports that a new Franklin and Marshall College poll for Pennsylvania shows Vice President Harris with a 3-point lead, which is within the margin of error. The survey results showed Harris with a three-point advantage over Trump, 49-46%, in a multi-candidate race with third parties and leaning voters included. A previous F&M poll in early August also gave the vice president a three-point margin vs. the former president, 46-43%, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. polling at six percent. He has since dropped out of the contest. The three points that separate the candidates are within the poll’s 4.1% margin of error. Harris has not polled lower than 48 percent in the Keystone State since the end of July, while Trump has topped the mark just three times in the last eight surveys. [...] Few Pennsylvania voters are splitting their tickets in the presidential and US senate races, wrote Yost. Nearly half (47%) of the voters are Harris-Casey voters and two in five (39%) are Trump-McCormick voters. There are a small proportion of Trump-Casey (2%) and Trump-Other (2%) voters and virtually no Harris-McCormick or Harris-Other voters. x Releasing high-quality polls of every Blue Wall state at midnight isn’t very mindful of people’s need for rest. 🥺 — Taniel (@Taniel) September 19, 2024 Amen to that! Second Gentleman Douglas Emhoff made some news at a fundraiser in Manhattan yesterday, according to ABC News political correspondent Will McDuffie. x "...It was way more people than we thought, and there was a lot of excitement, and we’re going to see what we can do down in Florida." 2/2 — Will McDuffie (@wrmcduff) September 18, 2024 Josh Marshall of Talking Points Memo thinks that the Trump campaign’s idea to put immigration at the forefront of the campaign and the media using the situation in Springfield, Ohio might not work out as planned. ...We have another assassination attempt which seems like an oddly secondary story. We have the ongoing grotesquery of Trump’s and Vance’s assault on Springfield, Ohio. The Trump campaign has been rather candid with reporters, telling them that they’re willing to take the hit on now admitting they were lying about the initial Fido and Felix barbecue allegations since it puts immigration at the forefront of the campaign. In other words, it might seem like a bad story for them — they’re revealed as cynical and destructive liars. But it’s a great theme for them. Because if the topic of the day is immigration, they win. Is that true? Maybe? It’s definitely possible. But I think skepticism is warranted on two counts. The first is that old pattern of Donald Trump stepping on a rake and then insisting that’s just what he meant to do and not only that but it’s the best thing that could happen to him. And there are enough examples of this being true to give normal people pause, to make them worry that there is something they’re missing. But I don’t buy it. This has been a trainwreck for the Trump campaign. It wasn’t intentional. Maybe it ends up being a boon. But not because it was the plan all along. My main point is that people shouldn’t let themselves get psyched out. And I actually don’t buy that it’s helping his campaign. More specifically, is this really about the border and immigration? Sort of. But the story we’re seeing is more one of a small community being terrorized by a campaign that looks desperate and in which the Republican town and county leaders have been begging the Trump campaign to stop and now saying that they’re not even sure they’re going to vote for Trump because they’re so mad about the situation. I think there’s at least as much argument that the story people are seeing is about the chaos and destructiveness of Trump, which most people don’t like. Adam Serwer of The Atlantic points out that the Trump/Vance campaign targeted Haitians in Springfield, Ohio in spite of them doing exactly what Republicans want them to do. The reward that the Haitian community in Springfield has received for doing exactly what Republicans demand of legal immigrants—work, provide for themselves, contribute to their community—is a campaign of slander and intimidation. Contrary to Vance’s insistence that he is creating “stories” about a community to alleviate the suffering of Ohioans, what the Trump campaign is actually doing is invoking that suffering as license to justify violence and harm. This is the most employed rhetorical device of the Trump campaign: point to someone’s suffering and then offer as a solution the application of state violence against a disfavored group, using Americans’ problems as a pretext to harm people they have chosen to hate. Trump and Vance have said that the Haitians were “dumped” on Springfield, that they came illegally, that they’ve spread disease, that they’re eating people’s pets. These are all long-standing staples of anti-immigrant rhetoric regardlessof the origin of the immigrants, attempts to use shocking, disgust-provoking anecdotes to overcome people’s ability to reason. Vance has now essentially admitted that he is weaving “stories” for a larger purpose, but it’s worth examining these allegations a little more closely to see what that purpose is. [...] There are only two grains of truth in Vance’s complaints about the Haitian migrants. One is that last year, a local boy, Aiden Clark, was killed when a Haitian driver hit Clark’s school bus by accident—though Vance has falsely called his death an act of “murder.” Aiden’s father, Nathan Clark, has condemned “morally bankrupt” politicians and “hatred spewing people” for trying to exploit his son’s death to foment racism against Haitians. Another is that the influx of workers has strained local resources: The New York Timesreported earlier this year that the new arrivals have put pressure on housing, medical facilities, and schools. Of course, this is how economic development works; people arrive, drawn by promises of gainful employment, and then services are expanded to meet demand. Those services in turn provide more jobs and opportunities, in a virtuous cycle. Jennifer Rubin of The Washington Post reminds us that JD Vance has a debate coming up. The Ohio senator’s debate against Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz is set for Oct. 1, with two capable female moderators — Norah O’Donnell and Margaret Brennan of CBS News. [...] Vance’s role in fanning what amounts to a racist blood libel, followed by his confession that he feels compelled to “create stories” to score points with voters, will not be his only vulnerability. Whether backtracking on assurances that former president Donald Trump would refuse to sign an abortion ban, or staking out a position that rape and incest shouldn’t be exceptions to abortion bans, or suggesting that people should stay in “violent marriages” (an interpretation he denies), or insisting that childless people do not have a stake in the future of the United States, or saying he “doesn’t care” what happens in Ukraine, Vance’s record is littered with gaffes, extreme statements and offensive slurs. (Recall his statement about getting grandparents to solve our child-care problem). He certainly will need to explain why he went from calling Trump “America’s Hitler” to praise so obsequious that it would make former vice president Mike Pence blush. The larger problem for Vance, however, may be that he has not accomplished anything (other than getting on the MAGA ticket) in his two brief years in elected office. He has been part of the “no” votes on everything from IVF and contraception protection to the tough border bill (which Trump instructed senators to sink). As he faces a former six-term congressman and two-term governor, his lack of gravitas and substance may be painfully obvious. David Lerman of Roll Call notes the failure of yesterday’s bill to fund the government past September 30. The 202-220 vote marked a predictable defeat for Johnson, R-La., on a bill that alienated most Democrats and left his own GOP conference divided. Fourteen Republicans voted against it, more than enough to offset the three Democrats who defected from their party to back the measure: Maine’s Jared Golden, North Carolina’s Don Davis and Washington’s Marie Gluesenkamp Perez. They are considered three of the most endangered Democratic incumbents this November. The delayed vote, which was initially planned for last week before getting pulled, also cost leaders a week of negotiating time on a funding extension that is needed by Sept. 30 before the new fiscal year begins. Next Friday is Sept. 27, which is the target date for lawmakers in both chambers to wrap up and head home to campaign. [...] While a Plan B has yet to emerge, Democrats and some GOP appropriators have been advocating a shorter spending extension, through mid-December. Democrats also want a greater number of “anomalies” in the continuing resolution to address concerns such as expiring health care programs, a funding shortfall in veterans’ health costs, and possibly new money for the Secret Service after the apparent second assassination attempt against former President Donald Trump. Jessica Glenza of the Guardian reports on a study showing that the United States health care system ranks dead last among “peer nations” in international health care comparisons The United States health system ranked dead last in an international comparison of 10 peer nations, according to a new report by the Commonwealth Fund. In spite of Americans paying nearly double that of other countries, the system performed poorly on health equity, access to care and outcomes. “I see the human toll of these shortcomings on a daily basis,” said Dr Joseph Betancourt, the president of the Commonwealth Fund, a foundation with a focus on healthcare research and policy. [...] when asked about healthcare issues, voters overwhelmingly ranked cost at the top. The cost of drugs, doctors and insurance are the top issue for Democrats (42%) and Republicans (45%), according to Kaiser Family Foundation health system polling . Americans spend $4.5tn per year on healthcare, or more than $13,000 per person per year on healthcare, according to federal government data . ... Finally today, Jeanna Smialek of The New York Times reports on the Federal Reserve first cut in interest rates in four years. The Fed’s decision lowers rates to about 4.9 percent, down from a more than two-decade high. The pivot comes in response to months of fading inflation, and it is meant to prevent the economy from slowing so much that the job market begins to weaken more painfully. Officials have been keeping a careful eye on a recent uptick in the unemployment rate, and by starting off with a big cut, the Fed is in effect taking out insurance against a bigger employment slowdown. Reinforcing that cautious message, the decisive reduction came alongside economic projections that suggested a more rapid pace of rate cuts than officials had envisioned just a few months ago. Officials now expect to make another half-point reduction before the end of the year. [...] Wednesday’s rate cut marks a preliminary victory. So far, Fed officials have managed to slow inflation notably without causing major economic problems. The unemployment rate has crept up, but it hasn’t jumped painfully. Hiring persists, though it has slowed. Consumer spending remains strong. Overall growth is still robust. Have the best possible day everyone! [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/9/19/2271384/-Abbreviated-Pundit-Roundup-The-8th-battleground-state?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/