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News Report: London, er, Crimean Bridge is Falling Down [1]

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Date: 2024-09-15  

I just watched a short news report (below) indicating that the Crimean Bridge, which spans the Kerch Strait, is in need of major repairs and continues to deteriorate. The implication is that the AFU may not need to destroy it; it may fall down on its own.

The source, it should be noted, is the channel Kanal13, which originates in the oil-rich former Soviet Republic of Azerbaijan. That country isn’t known for either its press freedoms or human rights but it’s neutral in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. It maintains diplomatic relations with both countries, but declined to join the Collective Security Treaty Organization, Russia’s answer to NATO. Azerbaijan’s closet ally is, in fact, Turkey, with which it shares a similar culture and language. So while this can be considered government-approved reporting, I’m inclined to take it at face value.

The gist of the story is this:

The bridge has been seriously damaged by two separate Ukrainian attacks. In October 2022, a massive explosion originating from what was probably a truck bomb seriously damaged the road bridge, while igniting a fuel train that was crossing the parallel rail bridge. Both structures required months of repair. In July 2023, a pair of marine drones again knocked the road bridge out of commission for several months. According the the story, however, repairs were insufficient and left the bridge with major structural problems.

Prior to the bridge’s construction, ferries were used to transfer passengers and cargo between Russian and the peninsula, but Ukraine has successfully destroyed all of these with missile attacks. Thus, Russia is being forced to send overloaded trucks across the bridge, accelerating its structural deterioration. The Russian government is likely aware of the situation, but doesn’t have the resources to perform the proper repairs. (It may also be that the repairs can’t be performed without closing the bridge for a significant period.)

Though it’s not mentioned in the YouTube video, the durability of the bridge was questioned even before the current war. The bridge crosses a tectonic fault, and there’s a thick layer of silt on the sea floor which provides an unstable foundation. Also, the area suffers from something called “mud volcanoes”, which I thought was a fancy cocktail, but I guess not. And, oh yeah, construction was rushed because Putin needed it to consolidate his hold on the then newly-captured Crimean peninsula.

Presumably, the Russians are hoping it stays standing long enough for them to win the war. Which doesn’t look like a good bet, the way things are going.

As Russia gears its entire economy to the war effort, there’s little left over for boring stuff like infrastructure maintenance. (Until Joe Biden, the US was pretty bad about that, too.) Earlier this spring, Russia suffered a couple of major dam failures out in its eastern provinces, indicating that there’s a lot triage going on.

The eventual Russian “collapse” may not be metaphorical. It may consist of critical infrastructure falling down for lack of maintenance.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/9/15/2270341/-News-Report-London-er-Crimean-Bridge-is-Falling-Down?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web

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