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Harris's Paths to Victory (as of today) [1]

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Date: 2024-09-09  

A new poll today says Harris is leading by THREE! POINTS! in North Carolina. That got me to thinking about what combination of states she needs if she gets NC, and then what if she doesn’t get NC but gets either PA or GA.

Start with the map of the probable EC as of today (above). If Trump gets PA, NC, and GA, he gets 270. So Harris needs to win at least one of those three states. Here’s what else she needs:

PA:

MI and AZ

WI and MI gets her 269. So she needs any one of AZ, NV, Omaha or Maine 2.

WI, NV, and AZ

NC or GA:

MI, WI, and either NV or AZ

WI, NV, AZ and both Omaha and Maine 2

NV, MI, and AZ

NC and GA (but not PA):

MI

NV and AZ

WI and either AZ or NV

AZ and Omaha and Maine 2

PA and either NC or GA:

Any of AZ, MI, or WI

Harris really needs more than the minimum, of course, to give her cover from the inevitable attempts by Trump’s installed election deniers to cheat for him. We need to be pushing in all states and for all the races on the ballot. And some red states may be reachable: An Emerson poll conducted Sept. 3-5 has Trump 50 / Harris 46 in Texas and Trump 50 Harris 45 in Florida. Considering how unpopular DeSantis is in Florida (and I think Texans aren’t real happy with Abbott either), and how the Senate races in both states are close (Texas: Cruz 48, Allred 44) (Florida: Scott 46, Murcasal-Powell 45), putting resources there could well pay off.

Anyway, those are the numbers I have today. After the debate tomorrow, we shall see.

(Emerson polling is rated by Media Bias / Fact Check as “least biased” and high (not quite very high) factual.)

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/9/9/2269057/-Harris-s-Paths-to-Victory-as-of-today?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=latest_community&pm_medium=web

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