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FL Senate race is now a dead heat [1]

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Date: 2024-09-06  

New polling released today from Emerson College and The Hill provides fresh data that Florida is indeed in play for the Democrats this year — especially for the critical U.S. Senate race. The poll shows that the Sunshine State’s Senate race is a true dead heat, with deeply unpopular Sen. Rick Scott leading former Rep. Debby Mucarsel-Powell by just 1 percentage point, 46 percent to 45 percent, among likely Florida voters — well within the survey’s plus or minus 3.14 point margin of error. Nine percent of voters said they are undecided.

More details from the poll:

Among independent voters, 47 percent said they back Mucarsel-Powell and 34 percent broke for Scott. Nineteen percent said they are undecided. Mucarsel-Powell leads Scott by 5 points among women voters, while Scott led Mucarsel-Powell by 8 points among men. The poll also found Mucarsel-Powell polling ahead of Scott with the state’s Hispanic vote by 6 points, while Scott led Mucarsel-Powell by 19 points among white voters.

Note on Hispanic vote: Mucarsel-Powell is Hispanic, She was the first Ecuadorian-American and first South American-born immigrant to serve as a member of Congress.

Note on independent vote: 26 percent of Florida voters are registered independents (referred to as “No Party Affiliation” in the state), so they are a sizable voting block and the fact that Mucarsel-Powell leads with them by13 percentage points is notable.

Note on women’s vote: Florida’s abortion rights amendment could certainly have a spillover effect to help Mucarsel-Powell. Here’s a recent story in the Tampa Bay Times about conservative women in Florida organizing in support of Amendment 4.

While Democrats have taken up abortion rights as a key issue for 2024 elections across the country, polling shows the issue doesn’t fall strictly along partisan lines. Some Republican women are working to create room for conservative people who oppose abortion bans.

This latest poll shows momentum building for Mucarsel-Powell. Two earlier polls showed Scott leading Mucarsel-Powell by four percentage points.

Let’s hope this fresh polling date convinces the Harris-Walz campaign to focus some attention on Florida — not just for Harris-Walz but also for Mucarsel-Powell. How nice would it be to have a little more cushion in terms of helping the Dems keep control of the Senate — and force the Republicans to devote more resources to the state.

The ultra-wealthy Rick Scott has deep pockets and is able to self-fund his campaign, whereas Mucarsel-Powell says she has “not a dime of self-funding.” So she needs our support. You can contribute to Mucarsel-Powell’s campaign here.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/9/6/2268294/-FL-Senate-race-now-a-dead-heat?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web

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