(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . What Russian Artillery Doing? [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.'] Date: 2024-08-27 As we all know Russia is an artillery driven army that has lost huge amounts of artillery. While Ukrainians have almost certainly over estimated Russian losses, they may be pretty close. I am going to assume they possibly are for the sake of argument and that they have so many eyes in the sky with their drone army they could be spot on. According to Euromaidan Press reporting Ukraine’s general staff report on Russian daily losses, by 21st August, the Russians had lost 17,216 artillery systems, 67% of their total estimated guns and well more than their active stock @ start of war. MLRS losses were 1,166, 27% of estimated launchers. According to daily losses by 24 August, they had lost 17,349 artillery systems, or 68% of their total estimated guns. MLRS were at 1,169 still 27%. In the 3 days since then another 125 or so Russian artillery pieces have been killed. It seems clear the Russians have lost a large portion of their self propelled and modern systems among those killed or damaged. The daily lists that itemize by type and whether killed or damaged have for the last several weeks been most often D20 and D30 towed pieces from the late 50s / early 60s. A couple days ago in Russian Stuff Blowing Up we see WWII era 122mm M20 pieces from late 30s / WWII in use. Additional problem for the remaining modern guns is Russian’s inability to produce much in the way of replacement barrels, reducing accuracy and creating other problems. Certainly the ancient pieces from the 30s, 40s, 50s and 60s are unlikely to have new barrels, most likely they have ones with a ton of preexisting wear on them. To begin with they will also have shorter range than more modern versions with more modern ammo do. They’ve run low on their own ammo, can’t produce enough so they’re using shitty North Korean ammo. With increased dud rates, and possible exploding in barrels. There can’t be that much left of experienced crews. A lot of them have been killed when the newer pieces were killed. SPGs exploding don’t give them much chance to get away I am surprised they aren’t increasing production of MLRS, rockets don’t need complicated guidance systems, are area weapons of the sort Russia likes, and certainly Stalin’s Organ Pipes were made in mass numbers in WWII pretty quickly. That may be the one area where Russia isn’t totally fucked. But the losses could be lower as they may be more careful in using them in the first place. And they had a lot fewer of MLRS than guns to begin with. Trying to make up for artillery losses they have much increased the use of glide bombs and drones. A lot of drones from Iran. But now there are F16s with apparently long range air to air missiles, lots of airfield attacks killing and damaging Russian jets, and lack of spares to maintain Russian aircraft. So much so that the other day we saw a report that experienced ground crews were being collected into a meat assault unit. Ukraine is far ahead in the drone war, and the Russians aren’t making up their lost guns with drones at this point or any time soon I think. So when will Russian artillery’s breaking point come, or is it here already as demonstrated by the regular appearance for at least the last couple months of ancient guns? Are the ancient pieces being sent to the front now Russian artillery’s version of a meat assault? Once they start shooting the Ukrainians will find them, they can’t pack up and move quickly, Russia has to know they will be killed pretty quickly. Their inability to shoot and scoot does not bode well for survival. So in Russia’s worst case, in the space of 3 days from August 21 - August 24, they lost 1% of their guns. If the 68% number is accurate and said kill rate continues, 32% x 3 days says they may largely have no remaining guns as soon as mid December. They will still have quite a number of MLRS left them, but the fewer artillery pieces the Russians have, the more MLRS will be found and targeted so their kills may accelerate at some point. Russia’s best case may be far different, lets say Ukraine has overestimated their artillery kills by 100% as would not be unusual in many wars, which means Russian artillery may last as long as the end of next year, but by mid year might be almost entirely ancient pieces of much lower value than what they started with. But the fact that the Ukies watch every kill with stand off drones makes me hopeful their numbers are pretty good. So what does Russia do when their artillery arm has been eliminated from the battlefield? That is the core arm of their army. I doubt they have much in the way of plans or gamed out tactics to use in such a situation. They’ll just be fucked fucked fucked. Here’s hoping Ukraine’s numbers are pretty close. Slava Ukraini !! [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/8/27/2265662/-What-Russian-Artillery-Doing?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=more_community&pm_medium=web Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/