(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Ukraine Invasion Day 917: ATACMs need more latitude in target options [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.'] Date: 2024-08-27 Ukraine's operations in Kursk Oblast have already had theater-wide operational and strategic effects on Russian forces, and Ukraine's incursion into Kursk Oblast has challenged Putin's theory of victory by seizing the initiative in a new area. The redeployment of Russian aircraft from 16 Russian air bases in range of ATACMS does not reduce the importance of allowing Ukraine to use ATACMS against hundreds of other Russian military objects, however, nor does the reportedly small number of ATACMS the US has provided. Russian forces conducted a large series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of August 26 to 27. Shot down: 0/3 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles 0/1 Iskander-M ballistic missile 0/1 Iskander-K cruise missile 5/5 Kh-101 cruise missile 60/81 Shahed drones Ukrainian Air Force Commander Lieutenant General Mykola Oleshchuk reported that Russian forces launched three Kh-47 "Kinzhal" aeroballistic missiles from aircraft over Lipetsk Oblast, an Iskander-M ballistic missile from occupied Crimea, an Iskander-K cruise missile from Voronezh Oblast, five Kh-101 cruise missiles from aircraft over Volgograd Oblast, and 81 Shahed-136/131 drones from Yeysk, Krasnodar Krai and Kursk Oblast.[55] Oleshchuk reported that Ukrainian forces shot down all five Kh-101 missiles and 60 Shahed drones over Kyiv, Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, Vinnytsia, Cherkasy, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhia, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Zhytomyr, Sumy, Chernihiv and Kirovohrad oblasts. Oleshchuk additionally stated that 10 Shahed drones likely crashed in unspecified areas of Ukraine, one drone crossed the border into Belarusian airspace, and the remaining 10 drones were still operating in Ukrainian airspace at the time of his reporting. Ukrainian officials reported that Shahed drones damaged civilian infrastructure and killed and wounded civilians in Kyiv City, Kryvyi Rih, and Zaporizhzhia City.[56] The Russian MoD posted footage on August 27 purportedly showing Russian forces conducting an Iskander-M strike against Ukrainian forces in Stepanivka, Sumy Oblast.[57] ISW has not observed visual confirmation of this claim. Ukrainian Navy Spokesperson Captain Third Rank Dmytro Pletenchuk stated that Ukrainian forces downed all of the Kalibr cruise missiles that Russia launched against Ukraine during one of Russia's largest combined strikes on the night of August 25 to 26.[58] Pletenchuk stated that Russian forces only launch sea-based Kalibr missiles during combined strikes in order to overwhelm the Ukrainian air defense umbrella. Pletenchuk stated that the Russian military currently has four submarines and five surface vessels that carry Kalibr missiles in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov. understandingwar.org/... x Russian forces launched UAV and missile attacks across Ukraine, with explosions reported in Kyiv, Kryvyi Rih, Rivne, Sumy, Zaporizhzhya, and Khmelnytskyi on the night of Aug. 27.https://t.co/ReBkvFqY4A — The New Voice of Ukraine (@NewVoiceUkraine) August 27, 2024 Anonymous senior US officials have suggested that the redeployment of Russian combat aircraft from airfields in Russia within ATACMS range and the low number of ATACMS that the US has provided to Ukraine somehow reduce the validity or importance of the Ukrainian request.[1] Politico reported on August 23 that an unnamed senior Biden administration national security official stated that Russian forces have moved some objects out of range of Western-provided Storm Shadow and ATACMS missiles.[2] An unnamed administration official also reportedly stated that Russian forces have moved 90 percent of the aircraft that conduct glide bomb strikes from Russian airspace away from airfields within range of Storm Shadow and ATACMS missiles.[3] Sixteen Russian air bases are located in range of Ukrainian ATACMS in Russia, and ISW has observed confirmation of redeployments of Russian aircraft to air bases out of range of Western-provided long-range weapons.[4]….US policy continues to restrict Ukraine from using ATACMS to strike no fewer than 245 known Russian military and paramilitary objects – of which only 16 (6.5%) are air bases –as of August 26, 2024.[5] (ISW previously assessed that 250 objects – including 17 air bases – were in range of Ukrainian ATACMS based on a control of terrain assessment conducted in May 2024.) The maximum range of Ukrainian HIMARS – which the US allows Ukraine to use in Russia under limited circumstances – encompasses 20 of these objects.[6] At least 225 known objects are in range of ATACMS but not within the range of HIMARS. At least 209 of 245 (over 85%) known Russian military objects in range of ATACMS are not air bases. Ukrainian forces are using indigenous long-range strike systems to hit some of these targets, but they do not appear to have many such systems—so the relatively small number of ATACMS Ukraine has reportedly received could make significant difference. understandingwar.org/... ISW has published a list and interactive map (links below) of known military and paramilitary objects to illustrate the extent to which US restrictions on Ukraine’s use of ATACMS constrain Ukraine’s ability to strike important military infrastructure in Russia. https://t.co/Y72LeF1OgK Confidential negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow, under the aegis of Qatar, were being conducted to obtain a partial ceasefire. This was interrupted by the offensive in Kursk. A "peaceful resolution" still appears to be a long way off. Indirect talks, conducted in the utmost secrecy, had nevertheless been taking place recently between Ukraine and Russia, The Washington Post revealed on August 17. The aim was to negotiate a "landmark agreement halting strikes on energy and power infrastructure on both sides," amounting to a "partial ceasefire [offering] a reprieve for both countries." Russian and Ukrainian delegations were due to meet in Doha at the end of August, but Ukraine's incursion into the Kursk region, launched on August 6, interrupted the process. Russia "didn't call off the talks, they said give us time," said a diplomatic source quoted by the American daily. A source close to the matter confirmed to Le Monde the existence of these talks. The idea emerged after the Ukraine peace summit held in Switzerland in mid-June. "Qatar offered to host negotiations on energy, and wanted Russia and Ukraine to participate in order to achieve concrete, tangible results. But the recent escalation [the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk] has postponed this decision until further notice. The talks were supposed to take place in person at the end of August," added the same source. Qatar had already served as mediator between the warring parties in order to free dozens of Ukrainian children illegally transferred to Russia and the occupied territories. www.lemonde.fr/... https://t.co/qw01i8JeKO https://t.co/qw01i8JeKO https://t.co/qw01i8JeKO https://t.co/qw01i8JeKO x ⚡️ Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that "the kursk operation is one of the points of Ukraine's victory plan." At the same time, the president denies media information that the offensive of the Armed Forces of the russian federation disrupted the secret negotiations between Kyiv and… pic.twitter.com/Jfysv3P2MC — BLYSKAVKA (@blyskavka_ua) August 27, 2024 x ⚡️⚡️ JUST IN: "No one will sign an agreement with Russia on extending the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine. This is the end of the deal," Zelenskyy says. pic.twitter.com/ZtWrZxpFOn — NEXTA (@nexta_tv) August 27, 2024 x The assault on key gas hub Sudzha highlights Europe’s continued reliance on Russian energy. The question this thread explores - is who will it impact and what is the overall level of the impact. A Ukrainian incursion into Russia’s Kursk region – the largest since the war began… pic.twitter.com/laJfNBfBfG — Beefeater (@Beefeater_Fella) August 9, 2024 x UN nuclear watchdog chief Rafael Grossi said Russia’s Kursk power plant is at risk of a nuclear accident, which has been put under a spotlight after the recent incursion by Ukrainian forces https://t.co/SrJNDeXwjT pic.twitter.com/fYtXzWUQOM — Reuters (@Reuters) August 27, 2024 Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed on August 27 that Ukrainian forces used F-16 fighter jets to down missiles during Russia's most recent massive drone and missile strike against Ukraine.[33] Zelensky previously noted that Ukraine intended to use F-16s are part of a combined air defense and fighter aircraft system to protect Ukrainian positions and cities from Russian air, drone, and missile strikes.[34] Key Takeaways: Russian forces have made significant tactical advances in the Pokrovsk direction amid reports that Ukrainian forces have withdrawn from select areas southeast of Pokrovsk. Russia's most combat-capable troops are currently sustaining Russian advances towards Pokrovsk, and Russia's offensive operations are emblematic of the wider Russian theory of victory in Ukraine, premised on seemingly indefinite grinding tactical advances. Russia's continuous and complete prioritization of the Pokrovsk direction will likely impact Russia's overall combat capabilities in Ukraine in the aftermath of any Pokrovsk scenario, especially as the Kremlin tries to balance gains in Pokrovsk with defending against the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reported that Ukraine's incursion into Kursk Oblast was in part an effort to preempt a Russian offensive operation into Sumy or Chernihiv oblasts and noted that the incursion is an aspect of Ukraine's wider efforts to achieve a just and lasting diplomatic solution to the war based on the principles of international law and the inviolability of Ukraine’s territorial integrity. Ukrainian forces reportedly attempted to advance into two areas of Belgorod Oblast on August 27 amid continued Ukrainian offensive operations in Kursk Oblast. Russian officials attempted to use International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi's visit to the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant (KNPP) to falsely portray Ukraine as threatening a radiological incident, likely to undermine Western support for Ukraine by stoking unfounded fears about Ukraine's incursion into Kursk Oblast. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi emphasized India's commitment to ending the war in Ukraine to Russian President Vladimir Putin following Modi's recent visit to Ukraine. Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Kreminna and Russian forces recently advanced near Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Donetsk City. The Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast has reportedly heightened willingness among Russian citizens to sign military service contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD). x 🚱 Russian units are running out of water in Ukraine. #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/4Xzokx5rbH — Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) August 27, 2024 x ⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - AUG 27, 2024 ■ Engagements & casualties above 7-day average ■ Record drone & missile interception, double-digit tank losses achieved ■ Most 🇷🇺 missiles fired to date, air & artillery ratio could be better Note: Daily strikes & engagements now shown… pic.twitter.com/mIpcNTtO76 — Ragnar Gudmundsson 🇮🇸🇺🇦 (@ragnarbjartur) August 27, 2024 understandingwar.org/... Russia's most combat-capable troops are currently sustaining Russian advances towards Pokrovsk, and Russia's offensive operations are emblematic of the wider Russian theory of victory in Ukraine, premised on seemingly indefinite grinding tactical advances. Russia's continuous and complete prioritization of the Pokrovsk direction will likely impact Russia's overall combat capabilities in Ukraine in the aftermath of any Pokrovsk scenario, especially as the Kremlin tries to balance gains in Pokrovsk with defending against the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated during a press conference on August 27 that one of Ukraine's main goals in launching the Kursk incursion was to divert Russian forces from critical areas of the front, and that Russia anticipated this goal and is instead concentrating its main efforts and strengthening its presence in the Pokrovsk direction.[8] Syrskyi also reported that Russia has redeployed over 30,000 troops from other unspecified sectors of the frontline in Ukraine to Kursk Oblast and forecasted that this number will continue to grow while noting that Russia is simultaneously intensifying its efforts in the Pokrovsk direction. Syrskyi's observations cohere with ISW's current assessment that the Russian military command continues to prioritize the Pokrovsk front over pushing Ukrainian forces from Kursk Oblast. ISW has previously noted that ISW has not observed evidence of Russia redeploying units currently engaged near Pokrovsk to Kursk Oblast but has observed evidence of Russia instead deploying reserve units and units from non-critical sectors of the front, which likely accounts for the bulk of the 30,000 troops redeployed to Kursk Oblast that Syrskyi noted.[9] Syrskyi's statements suggest that the Russian military command remains unwilling to redeploy troops currently fighting near Pokrovsk and will continue to prioritize using these relatively more combat-capable troops to secure tactical gains and maintain the initiative in Donetsk Oblast. The apparent continued Russian prioritization of territorial gains near Pokrovsk is consistent with Russian President Vladimir Putin's articulated theory of victory in Ukraine, which assumes that Russian forces maintain the initiative and pursue a constant grinding war of attrition to outlast Ukraine and Ukraine's partners. understandingwar.org/... Russian forces have made significant tactical advances in the Pokrovsk direction amid reports that Ukrainian forces have withdrawn from select areas southeast of Pokrovsk. The recent rate of Russian advance in the Pokrovsk direction has been relatively rapid, and Russian forces have advanced through most of Novohrodivka in a matter of days. Russian forces appear to be prioritizing advancing along the railway line in Novohrodivka toward Pokrovsk instead of fighting through the entire urban area of the settlement. 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