(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Forget the polls! Here's why.... [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.'] Date: 2024-08-24 In a recent The Atlantic article, “The Asterisk on Kamala Harris’s Poll Numbers,” Ronald Brownstein delves into the challenges pollsters face in capturing the true sentiments of the electorate, particularly after significant misses in the 2016 and 2020 elections. These misses led pollsters to overhaul their methods in attempts to better account for the hidden support that buoyed Donald Trump, especially among white, non-college-educated voters and rural areas. After Trump’s unexpected 2016 win, pollsters began weighting their samples more heavily toward these underrepresented demographics. Brownstein explains that “polling firms shifted their weighting schemes to ensure that they were not missing the hidden enthusiasm among Trump’s base.” Despite these adjustments, polling errors in 2020 worsened in many battleground states, with Trump again outperforming predictions by even greater margins. Pollsters acknowledged that even with corrections, they were still struggling to fully capture Trump’s support, particularly due to so-called “anti-establishment response bias”—the distrust of institutions, including pollsters themselves, among Trump supporters. This has made these voters less likely to engage with surveys or provide accurate responses. In response, pollsters have turned to new methods, including the incorporation of “partials”—survey responses from people who don’t complete the entire poll. Brownstein points out that including partials might help capture more Trump supporters but also adds uncertainty, as incomplete answers may not fully reflect voter intent. The main takeaway here is that pollsters have adjusted their methods to try to adjust for the failures of 2016 and 2020, but only in one direction: towards Trump. Oddly enough, there is no evidence that they have tried to adjust their methods to the rampant polling errors since 2021, starting with the dramatic failure of the Republicans to match 2022 mid-term polling indicating an electoral bloodbath. There are too many examples to list here, but here’s a small sample: New York 19th Congressional District Special Election (August 2022): Polls suggested a Republican win in this closely watched race, but Democrat Pat Ryan pulled off an upset victory. Alaska’s At-Large Congressional District Special Election (August 2022): Polls showed a tight race with Republican Sarah Palin expected to perform well, but Democrat Mary Peltola emerged victorious. Kansas Abortion Amendment (August 2022): Polls indicated a tight race on a referendum to remove abortion protections from the Kansas Constitution, but voters decisively rejected the amendment by a double-digit margin, with pro-choice turnout exceeding expectations. Pennsylvania Senate Election (November 2022): Polls predicted a close contest between Democrat John Fetterman and Republican Mehmet Oz, but Fetterman won by a wider-than-expected margin despite health concerns. Michigan Abortion Rights Proposal (November 2022): Polling showed support for enshrining abortion rights in the Michigan Constitution, but the measure passed by a more substantial margin than expected, driving strong Democratic turnout across the state. Wisconsin Supreme Court Election (April 2023): Polls showed a tight race between progressive Janet Protasiewicz and conservative Daniel Kelly, but Protasiewicz won by more than 11 points. Ohio Special Election (August 2023): Polling predicted a close race over Issue 1, a ballot measure seen as a proxy for abortion rights. Voter turnout, especially among urban and suburban Democrats, far exceeded expectations, and the measure was defeated decisively. Kentucky Gubernatorial Election (November 2023): Polls suggested a tight race between Democratic Governor Andy Beshear and Republican Daniel Cameron, but Beshear won comfortably, outpacing most predictions. Wisconsin Constitutional Amendments (August 2024): Wisconsin voters faced two proposed constitutional amendments aimed at stripping powers from Democratic Governor Tony Evers. Polling suggested these measures had strong support, but they were both decisively defeated by about 10 points. These misses (there are more) suggest that while pollsters have focused on correcting for Trump supporters and rural Republican voters, they are still struggling to capture the energy on the Democratic side since Dobbs, particularly among young people, minorities, and women. And it’s plausible that the polling tweaks have gone too far as evidenced by Trump’s underperformance in 8 out 10 states in the primary election, even after his opponents had all dropped out. None of this is to say that the election is in the bag or that we can now relax. Obviously we need to work our tushes off to defeat Trump and I’m confident that we will. As Kamala’s mom might say, this isn’t a time to go in half-assed—only a whole-assed effort will do! At the same time, the trauma of 2016 has led a lot of Democrats to be afraid of the polls. My point with this diary is to say that we shouldn’t be. Based on the reporting by Brownstein and the consistent polling errors since 2022, including Trump’s primary underperformance, we have good reason to believe that—at worst—the polls are accurate, and at best, they are missing Democratic energy and a large swath of anti-Trump independents and moderate center-right conservatives. Really, as Democratic rank-and-file voters, we shouldn’t be basing our actions on polls at all. Rather, we should go all-in with volunteering, outreach, and donations to maximize Kamala’s win in November. The larger our win, the more likely we will finally turn the page on MAGA and move into an era of progressive realignment for the next generation. 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