(C) Daily Kos
This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered.
 . . . . . . . . . .



Where the Battlegrounds Stand before the Democratic Convention [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2024-08-19  

The Democratic National Convention starts today and it’s good to remember exactly where we are in terms of the electoral battlefield that we face this Fall.

Hope Springs from Field PAC [website] volunteers have been knocking on doors in the suburbs of 13 Swing States of Democrats and unaffiliated voters since March 2nd (as weather permitted). Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas and Wisconsin. We use an Issues Survey as a means to direct conversations with those voters in an effort to prepare the electoral landscape in favor of Democrats.

As part of our Issues Survey, we’ve been asking voters about their opinions of our presidential candidates. We started including Vice President Harris in our survey on July 13th and have now collected more than 4 weeks worth of data about the Democratic nominee.

On July 20th, we replaced the president with Kamala Harris’ numbers in the graphic above, and you can see the difference between the trend lines of the president and the vice president thereafter.

These trends are also reflected in the public polling that has been released since then. What Hope Springs is doing is not polling; these are the raw numbers collected each Saturday. There is no attempt to weight or randomize the data. Since we don’t include Republicans in our outreach efforts, they can hardly be considered polling results. Over the decades that i have actually used Issues Surveys in this manner, winning candidates have tended to above 70% and often in the 80% range. But you can see in the graphic below (left) that it depends on the state. Tim Ryan did not win his race although his numbers were considerably higher than Catherine Cortez Masto (who was re-elected last cycle).

But the point is, we want to see Harris in that 70-80% range. So far, only in Georgia has she been close to that. There’s a lot of room to grow. Thankfully, her trend lines are upward looking!

But what we have found at the doors roughly mirrors what other polls (again, our’s is not a poll) have found, as well.

Harris leads Trump in Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Nevada when third parties are factored in, according to new polling from British firm Focaldata which was conducted online between Aug. 6-16. In some cases, her lead is extremely slim, well within the margin of error; in Pennsylvania, for instance, Harris has a single percentage-point advantage (she leads Trump 48% to 47%). Meanwhile, Trump leads Harris 46% to 45% in Arizona and 49% to 45% in Georgia — both states that voted for President Joe Biden in 2020.

“The polling adds to the growing body of evidence of Harris’ momentum since she took over the nomination from Biden one month ago.”

Hope Springs from Field PAC began knocking on doors again on March 2nd to set up a favorable “battle space” or foundation for Democrats in 2024. We target Democrats and unaffiliated voters with a systematic approach that reminds them not only that Democrats care, but Democrats are determined to deliver the best government possible to all Americans. The voters we talk to in these 12 Swing States tell us they come away more invested in governance and feel more favorably towards Democrats in general because of our approach.

Obviously, we rely on grassroots support, so if you support field/grassroots organizing, voter registration (and follow-up) and our efforts to protect our voters, we would certainly appreciate your support:

[END]
---
[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/8/19/2264213/-Where-the-Battlegrounds-Stand-before-the-Democratic-Convention?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=latest_community&pm_medium=web

Published and (C) by Daily Kos
Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified.

via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds:
gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/