(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Mini-Ground War Update: Pokrovsk [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.'] Date: 2024-08-19 While everyone’s eyes are on Kursk, I was going to write a diary about it, but reliable information is scarce and the situation changes before I can finish. So, I decided there was value in taking a look at what else is out there being ignored. There are, essentially, four main stories: Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Vuhledar, and Chasiv Yar. I was going to write one diary with all four, but learning about Pokrovsk uncovered so much, I decided to do it as a single. HISTORY: Pokrovsk was founded about 150 years ago as a railroad town. The Russian Empire’s “railroad department” directed its formation as Grischino, a name it kept for a while. Since then, it has had four more different names in the last hundred years. It developed as a railroad, mining, and industrial center since formation. The surrounding landscape is sprinkled with coal mines and the ever-present 50 – 150 feet tall tailings piles. Last year, it had a population of about 60k making it about 80-85% the size of Bakhmut for comparison. It is 75% Ukrainian with the rest mainly Russian. I’m quite sure that Pokrovsk remembers the Russian (USSR) Army. Oh, yes, they remember. In February 1943, the town passed back and forth. The Red Army briefly captured it from the Germans before once more losing it after about a week. Upon reentering the town, the German Army discovered numerous corpses (about 400 German soldiers and about 200 more who were not, a mix of Italian soldiers, nurses, collaborators, civilians, etc.). They were machine gunned, mutilated, and raped, spread throughout the town concentrated mainly in and around the train station. The Massacre of Grischino was recorded and investigated as a war crime. I won’t go into more detail (they’re quite gruesome). Google if you want to know more. That was only 81 years ago, so, this town remembers the Red Army. WHY POKROVSK: This is what the rail yards look like. For a larger version of this picture, click here. Pokrovsk: Red is rail and this is just part of it. It is a logistical hub with the ability to support a large rail operation and lots of storage. There are multiple rail lines running in and out in several directions, and a road network able to deliver supply to units further east along a major portion of the Donetsk theatre. Trains can arrive and be unloaded and the material stored or sent on. Trains can be divided in the switching yard, with some cars going one direction and others going to a different destination. OPERATIONAL SITUATION: This map has a lot of stuff that I will go through. Pokrovsk is to the W. Avdiivka is shown in the SE corner to give some idea of how this fits in to events of the last six months. For a larger version of this map, click here. Right-click and open in another tab or window to expand. The Green line is the Russians. The various layers of green with red in between represent their progress in the past three weeks including the two weeks of the Kursk operation. Russian forces have advanced approx. 10 kms in that time capturing 80-85 sq kms of territory. Just to give something to compare that to, in the entire 4th Qtr of 2023 on the entire Ukrainian front , Russia netted about 93 sq kms. So, in comparison to that, this is Formula 1 racing. They turned a bit south in the last week, which was both unexpected (by me, at least) and smart. I will explain more on that on a later map. For right now, remember Area A as the later map will zoom in on that area. ARTILLERY: If you set up artillery big guns at that pin that says “Arty” in the very center of the map, guns with a 20 km range can reach to the edge of the Magenta circle. That means that Pokrovsk is now or will soon be within range of Russian tube artillery. For the sticklers out there, I set that gun position 3 kms back from the lines to give them some measure of safety, but they will still have to move around to keep from getting counter-batteried. So, the rail yards are likely under fire now as are some of the warehouses, roads, and rail lines heading out of the east side of town towards most of the Donetsk front. Thus, Pokrovsk’s usefulness as a logistics center is at least greatly diminished already. The two major highways out to the SE and NE (yellow) are easily within artillery range, but likely not yet under direct fire partly due to terrain (bits of high ground interrupting fires of fire, in some places), but I would expect that to end soon. LAST WEEK’S SOUTHWARD DIP (AREA A): Light Blue line is 6 kms to show scale only. For a larger version of the map, click here. The slight southward turn was, as I said, unexpected, so I took a closer look. Turns out there’s a lot of water. All the Dark Blue lines represent water obstacles that make movement at the very least difficult. With lanes in and out thus choked by obstacles, by turning south, Russia has made that whole 60-70 sq km around Area A untenable. The Black lines represent possible avenues of resupply and, when necessary, escape. I’m not even sure they are all still traversable. For example, there is one earthen dam. Is that dam still there? Dam. There? Traversable? To resupply or, more likely, leave, a Ukrainian force may have to expose itself to direct fire from the N flank possibly even at long heavy machinegun range. This is not good. If Ukraine has not left here by now, they have a problem. Expect to hear that this area has been abandon soon. It’s the smart (only) move. In doing this, Russia widened its penetration and secured its flanks. I think the Russian commander here knows what he is doing. Time to charge him with fraud and bribery at home!!! now what: There’s some tough territory for Russia to cover to get to Pokrovsk. In particular, get used to hearing about the small town of Novohrodivka. For a larger version, click here. Novohrodivka. Red is Russians. Blue line is 2 km to show scale. It looks like a tough little nut to crack with quite a few tightly packed three-story brick and stone apartment buildings in which to hole-up and shoot at folks. It has empty fields between it and the Russians, so nice fields of fire from covered positions. There’s a couple of other smaller, less-challenging places/towns and the ever-present slag heaps here and there. Russia won’t be to the edge of Pokrovsk in August and probably not in September, either. They are doing pretty well, but they are likely to slow down, now, as they approach the more urban environment and their logistics tail gets longer. But they are probably about to start pounding Pokrovsk if they can supply the guns to do it. Today, the civil authorities have issued a mandatory evacuation order. This isn’t “drop everything and run.” Civilians have, as I understand it, a week or two to pack up and get out. Is Pokrovsk doomed: No. Many people including several here believe Russia will run out of juice, soon. Based on Russia’s less than stellar response to action up north, I’m beginning to come around to their way of thinking. Russia has recently been advancing at the rate of 0.5 km per day, but over largely rural terrain. With the towns to their front, they will surely slow down. They have about 12-13 km to cover to get to the edge of town, so even if they maintain the current advance, that’s mid-September to arrive at the edge. If they slow to half speed, that’s October and ground conditions could hamper things, particularly resupply as roads coming up from their base are scarce. There’s the rail line, but I can’t see Ukraine letting them repair/use it. So with that set of almost worst case for Ukraine assumptions, you have Russia trying to capture the town during the winter. Hmm… You decide. However, from Ukraine’s standpoint, that is somewhat immaterial. If Russia gets another five or so km and can supply its (shrinking) artillery force, the town’s usefulness for its intended purpose is limited at best. bigger picture: But Putin and his army staff seem to be sitting around with their thumbs up their asses up north. Putin’s pantsing and the utter humiliation of Russia in General (pun intended) and Putin in particular in Kursk is going well for the Ukrainians. If Russia doesn’t scrape together a force to react, some ambitious government official may decide he can run things better. 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