(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . The Kursk incursion and the “Triangle of Control” [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.'] Date: 2024-08-16 Many report have confirmed that the armed forces of Ukraine (UAF) have secured a firm grip on the city of Sudzha - close to the Ukrainian border. From there the UAF have fanned out, mostly by using to two main roads — going northeast and northwest from Sudzha. The one going NE (R200) goes in the direction of the regional capital - Kursk. The one going NW ends up in the city of Rylsk. UAF’s has (so far) reached semi-progress along both these roads have thus created a contested area that forms a V-shape - with Sudzha at the bottom. If we then look at the connection between Rylsk (NW) and the capital Kursk (NE) there is a main highway running through these points (E38). Adding this highway on top of the V-shape we will instead have a triangle - with its southern tip balancing on the city of Sudzha. All these routes are crucial for any army trying to control the area of the triangle. Now, is it a coincident that UAF have marked all their vehicles with a triangle? I would not be surprised if the architects of this battle plan have looked at the maps with these three crucial routes for hours on end. If we look at the topography of the triangle we find that most of the upper part consists of flat hills (300+ meters) and gullies. Apart from the NE and NW roads there are no major routes to use. One smaller route that UAF is currently working on cuts the triangle in two - moving South from L’gov/E38 on the ridges. Both armies are more or less restricted to using parts of the triangle for bringing mechanized units — not to mention supply - forward. UAF would most likely be satisfied with having fire control over the whole triangle as long as possible. Any further advances I would categorize as being opportunistic in nature. N.B: Fire control for UAF is possible with only having parts the V-under control as their long range artillery and drones may make any moves along the E38 extremely risky. Achieving fire control of the whole triangle would both hamper Russian logistic and also pose a deadly threat to any mechanized attempts of moving towards Sudzha. Back to the topography. At the southern edge of the triangle - close to Sudzha - we have lower lands. This means that UAF need to stabilize this southern tip of the triangle so that the Russians cannot force their way towards Sudzha from any sides. I believe that this is exactly what UAF is also doing right now — i.e. broadening the fundament for the triangle of control. The longer UAF can sustain control over the triangle the costlier it will be for the Russians. If the Russian pressure eventually — at high Russian costs - would becomes overwhelming UAF would slowly back down the V-shape closer towards Sudzha. This incursion into the Kursk region works as a “honey trap” for Putin as he cannot let UAF hold on to any Russian territory. The social contract Putin has instilled over the past decades rely on him providing security and the masses staying put, in return. Eventually, the low lands around Sudzha will provide for natural obstacles for the Russians - in the forms of the river Psel running east-west in the south of the Kursk region. My assessment is that it will be both time consuming and costly for the Russians to kick the UAF out of southern Kursk. So far Putin has only been taking half measures in trying to stem the UAF tide. He may be reluctant to weaken the Russian slow but steady progress in Donbas. At the moment poor 19-year old conscripts (with — so far ignorant - families in Moscow or S:t Petersburg?) and battered units from Kharkiv and southern Ukraine are rushed to face the elite and mobile warfare trained UAF units. P.S: My apologies to the bad pics here. I’m still a rookie in that sense. [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/8/16/2263387/-The-Kursk-incursion-and-the-Triangle-of-Control?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/