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Electoral college algebra [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2024-08-13  

The Cook Report race ratings currently show Harris with 191 “solid” electoral votes and Trump with 148 “solid” EV.

In the “likely” category Trump catches up with 71 EV compared to 20 EV likely for Harris. Combining “solid” and “likely” gives Harris 211, Trump 219.



In the “lean” category it’s Harris 15, Trump 16. If all likely and leaning states break in the expected direction, it’s Harris 226, Trump 235.

That leaves six “tossups”: AZ GA MI NV PA WI, for a total of 77 EV.

So then what’s the probability of Harris reaching 270? As a first stab at answering that, assume that “likely” implies 80% probability, “leaning” 60%, and “tossup” 50%.



Under these assumptions, crunching all the possible combinations of outcomes results in a Harris win probability of 54%. Since that number depends on the stated assumptions and is pretty close to a coin flip anyway, it’s of more interest to see how the win probability changes if a given state is taken to be a sure win or a sure loss:

Harris electoral college win probability (>= 270 EV)

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