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Why a [Violent] Coup Attempt Would Almost Certainly Fail in the United States [1]

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Date: 2024-08-06  

Now, I have not been active here in DailyKos very long. Nonetheless, one topic of concern I have seen repeated many times is something along these lines:

“I am worried that even if we win the 2024 election, Trump and the RNC will do something to overthrow the Government and seize power by violent force — i.e. January 6th 2.0.”

I am not immune to this fear myself. However, I always try my best to analyze problems from a factual and historical viewpoint. This is 1) how I maintain my sanity, and 2) how I allow myself to sleep at night. When I studied political science in college, I learned many topics revolving around governmental legitimacy. After all, I was in college when Trump was elected in 2016. Trump’s threat to democracy was a very popular topic of discussion among my peers and professors. Coups d’état were, subsequently, a topic of intense discussion inside and outside of the classroom.

A “coup d’état” is French for “stroke of state,” literally a death—“blow” to the state.

The main feature of a coup d’état, as opposed to a revolution or civil war, is that it is meant to be rapid — instantaneous. A coup d’état is meant to happen so quickly that no one is able to respond quickly enough to stop the coup d’état rebels from succeeding to gain control of the government. In a modern context, this is especially important in order to prevent the population or outside countries from intervening with the plot (like say NATO sending a relief force to stop a Trump-led coup d’état). If the coup d’état only leads to a civil war, then the coup is a failure. A coup d’état must be a rapid strike that changes the government overnight (we’re talking 24 to 48 hours at the most).

The basic components of a successful coup d’état are open to discussion. There is more than one way to skin a cat, as the saying goes. Based upon what I learned in college, however, this scene from Netflix’s “The Crown” gave the best summarized “how-to” for a coup d’état:

1) Control of the media

2) The Capture of Administrative Targets

3) The Loyalty of the Military

4) Legitimacy

For the sake of this discussion, I am going to omit “Control of the Economy.” To my understanding of how governance works, if you control the Government, then you would also control economic policy. To me, “control of the economy” sounds like some sort of deep-state nonsense because the economy itself is an incorporeal entity that touches on everything and is interconnected with all nations on the globe. All that can be controlled is a government’s policy with regard to the economy, therefore control of economic policy necessitates control of the government. Therefore, a successful coup d’état would give you economic policy control for the nation.

That being said, I will discuss each of the remaining four points one by one and explain how a violent coup d’état by Trump (a second Jan 6th) would fail.

1) Control of the Media

In the context of an immediate and violent coup d’état, the rebel forces need control of the media in order to create a “fait accompli.” A “fait accompli” is to create deliberate propagandized messaging to the nation that the rebels have already succeeded in their rebellion and are now the acting government of the nation. In the decades before the internet, this would have meant the rebel forces would need to take control of television and radio stations so that they could immediately report to the people that they had already taken over. This would on the one hand discourage any immediate efforts of resistance, and on the other hand encourage compliance with the new imposed governmental order (“do not resist — we have already won”).

This is an example of media control for a fait accompli from the Niger coup d’état:

In July 1944, when officers within the Wehrmacht attempted to assassinate Hitler and complete a coup d’état, it was their failure to secure radio stations that ensured their defeat. They failed to secure the media. Some officers within the Wehrmacht were influenced and inspired by rebels who lied that the Wehrmacht as a whole supported the coup. However, when Hitler himself was able to speak over the radio, this caused the coup d’état to collapse. The military high command still had strong support for Hitler, and being able to hear from Hitler made them abandon the coup. Had the rebels managed to control the media, they would have been able to secure the reins of power by ensuring only their own messaging was spread to the nation, even if Hitler were still alive (the assumption being Hitler would have then been properly disposed of once control was attained).

Furthermore, with the advent of the internet, it is next to impossible for a rebel group to control the media to create the impression of a “fait accompli.” In July of 2016, when the Turkish armed forces attempted a coup d’état to overthrow President Recep Erdogan, Erdogan was able to still communicate with the country through one of his aide’s cellphones.

This allowed for the civilian population to be made aware of the military coup, which is what brought about the coup’s eventual failure. Civilians surrounded rebel tanks in the streets, major opposition parties opposed the junta rebels, and the coup d’état lost its initiative. Mind you, this all happened when the rebels had control of Turkey’s administrative centers and support of the military (the coup was conducted by the military itself — a junta). Control of the media is a necessity.

For a modern day coup d’état, in order for rebels to have control of the media, they would have to follow a model that Yeltsin was able to do when he defeated a coup d’état in 1991.

Danny Orbach is a military historian, former Israeli Intelligence veteran, and a specialist in coups d’état. He summarized how control of the media can be accomplished for a modern day coup d’état:

”The key is in… analysis of the failed coup against Gorbachev in 1991. In that coup, no side could silence the other. However, Yeltsin’s side was more adept at media manipulation, rather than outright coercion. In contemporary coups, the winners will probably have to win more allies in the media already in their early stages of planning. In addition, they’ll be able to skillfully frame their own news, often by using proxies at home and abroad, while creating the impression that the news of the other side is faked. In that sense, coups are much more similar to real election campaigns.”

warontherocks.com/…

For a modern day coup d’état, the rebels need to have domination and control over the narrative in order to have control of the media.

Despite how I or others may feel, neither Trump nor conservatives have control of the narrative, nor can they really. Now, make no mistake, the mainstream media has been corrupted by greed and easily swayed by conservative platitudes, but this is not controlling the narrative. The media follows Trump and conservatives around because their insane agendas sell in a cultural information network that is founded upon what is the most attention-grabbing. “MAGA” gets people’s attention, which makes them watch the news, which makes the mainstream media money. This is not because people like MAGAism, it is because people are shocked by MAGAism.

Just look at how people have reacted to Project 2025. Nearly everyone who is introduced to Project 2025 is repulsed by it. Project 2025 is Trump and the RNC’s narrative, and people reject it overwhelmingly. This is one reason why Trump has tried to distance himself as much as he can from Project 2025 — he knows his proposed narrative is unpopular.

In other words, media sources might parrot what Trump says, but the people overall do not find what Trump has to say convincing. This means that Trump and the RNC do not control the media because they do not control the narrative.

Under Orbach’s description, what would need to happen is for all mainstream media venues to convincingly behave like FOX News (totally loyal and willing to support a Trump coup), for FOX News narratives to ALSO be convincingly dominant within the internet, and the people overall would have to agree with the Project 2025 narrative. Not in 1,000 years could this be accomplished within the United States. DailyKos, alone, is a testament to that fact.

Needless to say, of course, controlling any sector of the media (such as say television) would require the military in order to have any hope of success in enforcing control. Control of the media, in the age of the internet, would also require legitimacy on the part of the coup d’état — the coup d’état cannot have legitimacy if it does not control the narrative. More on those later.

2) The Capture of Administrative Targets

In laymen’s terms, this means the capture and control of the “brain” of the country. From what we saw on January 6th, the capture of administrative targets could be delineated as the capture of Congress. In 2024, a Trump-led coup d’état would require the capture of at least both Congress and the White House.

The agenda of capturing administrative targets is to inhibit of any resistance to the rebellion from remnants of the overthrown government — i.e. to prevent a civil war or counterrevolution. It means controlling the buildings and assets used by the sitting government to prevent the overthrown government from centralizing resistance against the coup d’état. In 2024, this would mean capturing the White House in order to prevent President Biden from enacting the insurrection act and declaring martial law to crush the Trump-led rebellion.

Mind you, when I say the “White House,” I also mean the Presidency itself, not just the building. The Turkish military was able to secure government buildings in 2016, but President Erdogan escaped with his life, taking the powers of Turkey’s Presidency with him.

This logic also applies to all of the Congressmen who would not be in support of the coup d’état attempt.

Again, as with control of the media, this depends upon the support and active participation of the military.

3) The Loyalty of the Military

This is, bar none, the most crucial element of a successful coup d’état. It is not enough for the military of a nation as large as ours in a coup d’état to just remain neutral. The United States is, depending on where you measure, somewhere around 3,500 miles from coast to coast, and we have a population of around 333 million.

81.2 million Americans supported President Biden’s election in 2020. This, in theory, would account for at least 81 million Americans who would be opposed to the success of a Trump-led coup d’état (a population about the size of Germany’s). Even if only 100,000 of those 81 million resisted a Trump-led coup d’état, those 100,000 would still outnumber the (tentatively) estimated 60,000 Taliban insurgents who fought in Afghanistan for 20 years. Further, those 100,000 would be able to rally resistance to the coup d’état government from the millions of other Americans opposed to the coup d’état.

A small unstable country like Niger can have a successful coup d’état with only 30,000 active soldiers to its command. The United States would require millions of loyal servicemen to be successful — the full military.

This also does not address what would happen should elements of the military proclaim that they are not in favor of the coup d’état, and decide to fulfill their oath to defend the Republic from all enemies foreign and domestic. Just imagine if only one division of the standing army were to resist (in one state, like California). This would mean civil war, and a failure of the coup d’état.

This also does not address that, in a country like the US, you would also need the coordinated support of police departments in order to maintain control of the population. Only the strength and force of the military would ensure police forces nation-wide would fall in line to maintain order, as the rebel government wishes.

A supporting military is a coup’s d’état teeth.

Again, with a coup d’état, time is a matter of life and death. If the coup cannot be accomplished rapidly and decisively (48 hours), you only open the doors to civil war and international intervention (like Biden requesting support from NATO, as an extreme example). We all know that MAGAist conservatives are a clear numerical minority in the US. In terms of a numbers game, this is something a Trump-led coup d’état could not afford.

Any coup d’état in the United States has to have full loyalty from the United States Military in order to have a hope or prayer of success. Having only a fraction of military support, as I said before, just opens the door for civil war and/or the civilian population to intervene, and in the long-term conservatives just lack the numbers to eventually win such a contest.

As can be demonstrated by history, you HAVE to secure the military high command in order to secure the loyalty of the military itself. It is insufficient to have the support of middling officers or rank-and-file soldiers for a coup d’état. Just ask any military veteran you know, it is a profoundly tall order to ask a soldier to go against the command of their senior officers.

The structure of the Unites States military is based off of the Prussian Model of the 1700s, thanks to General Washington’s Inspector General, Baron von Steuben (www.smithsonianmag.com/...). The Prussian Model was adopted for its discipline, efficiency, and effectiveness of command, which was put to great effect during the wars of the Long 18th Century (where Prussia regularly fought and won wars against multiple numerically superior enemies).

Orders come from the top down, and it is up to the non-commissioned officers (NCOs) to determine the best means of accomplishing those orders no matter what. Orders are not questioned or discussed, you do as you are commanded. This is a legacy within the United States Military that has existed for nearly 250 years, as long as the country itself.

To have the support of the United State’s Military, you would either need the high command to support you, or there would need to be a mini-coup d’état within the military command itself where the military obeys rebellious middling officers who overthrow the structure of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

Going back to Point 2, “The Capture of Administrative Targets,” failure to secure the loyalty of Military High Command would require the rebels of a coup d’état to capture the Pentagon to circumvent and overrule the command of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. If a colonel in charge of 5,000 rebel soldiers wanted to overthrow the Joint Chiefs of Staff in a Trump coup d’état, this is what he would need to do — in addition to the capture of the White House and Congress. Capturing the Pentagon alone would be a Herculean effort of impossible magnitude to accomplish with an insurrectionist force.

Furthermore, popular claims that rank-and-file soldiers within the military are MAGAists is a myth at best anyway. Soldiers, unsurprisingly, were not a fan of “Cadet Bonespurs” when he was President. A poll conducted in August 2020 (by the MilitaryTimes) said that 49.9% of the military had an unfavorable opinion of Donald Trump, while 38% had a favorable opinion of Trump. 42% of servicemen “strongly” disapproved of their Commander in Chief Donald Trump (www.militarytimes.com/...).

And these ratings were before January 6th. I cannot imagine January 6th did anything to make rank-and-file soldiers go MAGA.

Were there grassroots plotting by military personnel to conduct a coup, they would be caught and turned over by other servicemen.

After January 6th, while Donald Trump was still in office, the United States Military Command irrevocably condemned the January 6th attacks in a public letter. In part, the letter read:

“The violent riot in Washington, D.C. on January 6, 2021 was a direct assault on the U.S. Congress, the Capitol building, and our Constitutional process… We witnessed actions inside the Capitol building that were inconsistent with the rule of law. The rights and freedom of speech and assembly do not give anyone the right to resort to violence, sedition or insurrection. As Service Members, we must embody the values and ideals of the Nation. We support and defend the Constitution. Any act to disrupt the Constitutional process is not only against our traditions, values, and oath; it is against the law. On January 20, 2021, in accordance with the Constitution, confirmed by the states and the courts, and certified by Congress, President-elect Biden will be inaugurated and will become our 46th Commander in Chief.”

www.military.com/...

This letter was signed by all members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the US Military High Command. Do not forget that General Milley, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, was appointed to be Chairman by Donald Trump.

Before the impeachment hearings, before the news articles really delved into the meat of the issue, before anyone really could get a feel for what had happened, the heads of the United States Military themselves labeled January 6th as a seditious insurrection to which they voiced their utmost disdain.

This is why the military Oath of Enlistment reads:

“I, _____, do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic; that I will bear true faith and allegiance to the same; and that I will obey the orders of the President of the United States and the orders of the officers appointed over me, according to regulations and the Uniform Code of Military Justice.”

This is because the United States Military does not swear fealty to the President or a political ideal. If the President or an officer attempts to give an order to that breaks the law, all soldiers are obligated to disobey those orders.

The United States Military swears its loyalty to the Constitution; to the rule of democratic law.

In short, if you do not have the loyalty of the United States Military High Command, if you do not have the loyalty of all of the servicemen themselves, and your coup d’état lacks Constitutional/legal standing, you will not have the loyalty of the United States Military.

A Trump-led coup d’état in 2024 would lack all of those requirements.

4) Legitimacy

This last requirement for a successful coup d’état speaks for itself. In order for a coup d’état to be successful, it would have to be legitimate in the eyes of the people of the country. The coup d’état would have to be accepted. This ties in with “Control of the Media” — control of the narrative. In the United States, this means that a coup d’état would need to respect the cultural norms of the Constitution and law. In other words, people would need to actually believe Trump’s “Big Lie” narrative that the 2020 election was stolen, and they would have to be in favor of Project 2025. Overall, Americans do not believe the Big Lie and reject Project 2025, and so any coup d’état by Trump would be perceived as not only an attempt to seize the government but also a coup against the US Constitution itself — illegitimate.

Failure of a coup d’état to have legitimacy would invite or ensure failure of the military’s loyalty (see the letter from the Joint Chiefs of Staff) and would guarantee failure of control of the media in the internet age. These failures, in turn, would then invite military intervention to defeat the coup d’état or a civil war would ensue as the people rebel.

The very nature of a Trump-led coup d’état would never in 1,000 years be legitimized by a majority of the American population within the confines of the law and Constitution. This is one reason why every effort by Trump to overturn the 2020 election laughably failed in American courts, say nothing of the fact that a coup d’état would be completely rejected by all Democrats, nearly all Independents and Undecided voters, and a healthy chunk of the Republican base itself. The numbers and the narratives just are not there.

If, somehow, the American population were “totally brainwashed” to legitimize a Trump coup d’état, we would not see such mass enthusiasm for supporting Kamala Harris.

Take the example of the revolution attempt in the popular play “Les Mis” as an example of a failure of legitimacy. The rebels in Les Mis had hoped that the people of France would see the merits of their rebellion and then come to support them in overthrowing the monarchy. As the story unfolds, the people were not swayed by the rebels, and then the rebels were crushed by a military that also did not support them. While Les Mis is a play, the rebellion portrayed did occur. This was the June Rebellion (or Paris Uprising), which happened in June 5-6, 1832.

A similar phenomenon would occur in the United States if a coup d’état were attempted again, as it did after Jan 6th. The American people would not give their support to Trump-led coup d’état rebels. Nothing, as I am sure is plain to see amongst us, has changed where the MAGAist movement has gained more support nationwide. If anything, their support has dwindled as more an more Republicans have moved away from MAGAism.

This is why Project 2025 exists, and this is why Trump is trying every dirty trick he can pull to ensure that he is “elected” to the Presidency. Project 2025 calls for a cleansing and restructuring of the military to make them totally loyal to the President (Trump), ripening them for participation in a future military coup d’état. Trump and the conservatives know that a coup d’état would not be supported by the media narrative, which is why they are trying to create the narrative that the election 2020 was rigged (and as a result the 2024 election will be rigged too). They also know that such actions would have no legitimacy under the Constitution, which is why Trump and the RNC have been trying to bank on the Supreme Court — the hope being that the Supreme Court would legitimize a post 2024 election Project 2025 takeover (Presidential Immunity). None of these actions are a part of a quick coup d’état, but rather an attempt at winning “the long game.”

In other words, conservatives are trying to lay the groundwork for 2028, or 2032, or 2036, and so on (that is a topic of another discussion, but I am equally optimistic they will fail in these attempts as well).

These actions in and of themselves demonstrate that Trump and the RNC know another Jan 6th attempt would fail (mind you, this does not mean a desperate Trump might not try anyway).

And so there you have it. A Trump-led coup d’état, if attempted after a Kamala Harris victory, would almost certainly fail.

They would lack control of the media narrative, they would lack full support of the military, they would not be able to capture administrative targets, and they would lack legitimacy in the eyes of the law and the people.

In all areas, a Trump-led coup d’état a la Jan 6th 2.0 lacks all necessary components for success.

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