(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Who will win Ukraine's artillery attrition contest? [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.'] Date: 2024-07-31 [Context: According to Forbes Vikram Mittal, artillery plays a central role in the Soviet warfare doctrine. This doctrine is being followed by both Russia and Ukraine. Ukrainian forces have positioned their artillery in and around their defensive strongholds in the Luhansk, Donetsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts. They fortify these positions with protective belts to prevent Russian mechanized assaults (by infantry with infantry fighting vehicles or armored personnel carriers). As a result, the Russians are forced to conduct small infantry assaults (aka meat waves) to overrun these defensive positions. Conversely, the Russian forces use large artillery barrages to target and destroy Ukrainian artillery emplacements and thus Ukrainian defensive positions. Russian artillery also forces Ukrainian troops to take cover, thus helps small infantry assaults advance, which overall reduces Ukrainians’ ability to defend their positions. It will also make a counteroffensive all the more challenging.] ~~~~~~~ Currently, the Russians are so low on artillery that, according to Forbes David Axe they are bringing to the frontline 70-year-old Russian howitzers. In 28 months of fighting, they have lost 1,400 guns and launchers out of the 5,000 pieces they had when they invaded Ukraine. At the same time, repeated firings are wearing out gun barrels and depleting ammunition reserves. Domestic manufacturing cannot produce the needed materiel and shells. Russia has recently strengthened trade and security with North Korea and will rely on North Korea for shell production. To meet operational demand of artillery, Russia is reactivating the same guns it had retired decades back: specifically, the M-46 howitzer which entered service in the 1950s and was retired some short twenty years later. This gun had good firepower and range. It fired five 130 mm shells a minute as far as 17 miles. But it was heavy at 8.5 tons and required eight troops to operate. It was replaced with 152 mm howitzers. The Russians deployed their modern howitzers to invade Ukraine. Steep losses of those newer guns … drove the Kremlin back in time. The operational reasons to replace the M-46 back in the 1970s no longer matter now. OSINT analyst @Highmarsed, who studies satellite images of Russian storage yards meticulously and with great expertise, says that of the 665 M-46s seen in 2022, 65 were removed by February 2024. A video earlier this month shows a train load of M-46s, most likely Ukraine-bound. @Highmarsed estimates that half of the remaining M-46s, or 330 units, have been taken. Videos have appeared showing Russian M-46s firing North Korean shells. Russia no longer produces 130 mm shells since it has transitioned to 152 mm howitzers, but North Korea and Iran still do. It will be interesting to see how the M-46 will be lugged along the 700-mile frontline and supported without trucks and artillery tractors. Attrition has been such that these type vehicles have been replaced with civilian all-terrain vehicles (aka Chinese golf carts) for troop transport and dirt bikes for assault. But a 1.5-ton ATV won’t be towing an 8.5-ton M-46. As a sobering reminder, a 2009 CIA report on North and South Korea artillery assets determined that the M-46 is the “most effective counterbattery weapon in Korea.” (“Counterbattery is a howitzer for destroying other howitzers.”). As mentioned above, it was already seen firing off in Ukraine, even if may have logistical challenges. ~~~~~ In an article published the same day, Forbes David Hambling points out an increase in destroyed Russian artillery and what it means. Ukraine has been destroying Russian artillery at a greater rate recently. If this rate is sustained, it could mark a turning point in the war and at same time reveal that conventional artillery is not immune to new weapons. As seen in the Context, artillery is fundamental to both Ukraine and Russia’s warfare. Russia in particular relies on brute firepower to capture towns by leveling them and advance territorially by throwing undertrained infantry into meat grinders. It is often quoted that 80% of the casualties are credited to Russian artillery. This strategy is viable because Ukraine is at a disadvantage, both in number of guns and launchers and in volume of ammunitions. The obvious fix would be to send Ukraine more of what it lacks. But that would not address the problem at its root, which is Russia’s hardware advantage. A game changer would be to locate and destroy Russian artillery. Deprived of its primary weapon, Russia would be de-fanged. And that may have started. Russia has a lot of artillery: 5,000 pieces deployed, 1,000 of which are self-propelled guns as well as 19,000 in reserve at the start of the invasion. Losses have been replaced out of these reserves, which have since been depleting. The reserves are in open storage, exposed to the elements and in deterioration. The question is, how much does it have left that is usable and how fast is it going through the fieldable reserves, which is usually called the burn rate. @Highmarsed has examined every storage site in Russia methodically. He has published his findings by type of equipment and site. According to these findings, M-46s have been reactivated (the subject of Axe’s article), but other artillery systems such as the 2S1 and 2S2 have not. There must be about 40% of Russia’s prewar artillery stocks still in storage. Russia has removed perhaps 1,500 self-propelled guns from storage, to add to the 2,500 before the war (from the IISS Military Balance). But rather than having 4,000 in the field they only have 1,000. Although @Highmarsed is careful to qualify that useless vs useable categories are not absolute, and relies only on visually verifiable losses, it can be assumed that some of the missing 3,000 will still be in the restoration pipeline being refurbished, but most are likely losses which cannot be visually confirmed. The question, still, is: How long before Russia runs out? It’s difficult to assess SPG losses because, unlike tank losses, they occur behind the frontline and can’t be confirmed visually. So we don’t really know the rate of SPG loss. Also, numbers vary widely between Oryx, which counts 382 towed artillery and 783 SPGs losses and Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense, which posts 8,000 tanks and 15,000 artillery pieces as lost. But beyond the raw numbers is the trend observed within the MoD numbers. In recent months, artillery kills have gone up, while tank kills have stayed about the same. There were twice as many artillery kills in May 2024 than May 2023: 1160 vs 553. The kills increased from month to month. 1460 in June, and 769 as of July 15. The same trend can be observed in Andrew Perpetua’s kill videos: 75 in the first two weeks of July, the highest ever. The uptick across the two sets of numbers suggests “something has changed”. Unsurprisingly, the “something” points to drones, an important component of Ukraine’s arsenal. Until recently, Ukraine did not have the right weapon against Russian artillery. Except for HIMARS, but there are not enough of them. FPV (first-person view) drones don’t have the range for systematic hits (12 miles max). There are numerous instances of FPV hits of 122mm guns. These have shorter range, which places them within FPV range. There are also many videos of FPVs hitting 152mm guns, but these too were positioned within FPV range. In July 2022, Russia deployed Lancet drones to go after Ukraine’s artillery. They have been devastating, as can be judged by Andrew Perpetua’s reports, which annieli includes nightly in her Ukraine Invasion: Day n. Ukraine now has developed Ukrolancet drones as a response. Like the Lancets, Ukrolancets are larger than FPVs, have wings rather than rotors and a much greater range of 24-36+ miles. They have been fielded since April. They could be the reason behind the recent spike in artillery kills. There have not been many Lancets deployed. If Ukraine has produced Ukrolancets at scale, any artillery that is detected and located (by reconnaissance drones) may be in jeopardy. (Hambling often talks about Russia’s production problems due to corruption and general inefficiency and has nothing but praise for Ukraine’s drone ecosystem.) There are no videos of Ukrolancet kills due to opsec. For fundraising purpose, one video by an entrepreneur is on social media which shows a Russian 2S7 self-propelled gun hit by a DARTS fixed-wing FPV. As noted above, Russia seems to have no problems replacing artillery losses to support frontline operations, although ammunitions might be more of a problem. There is more artillery in storage, even as stocks are getting lower. So how long will these stocks last? The answer may change with Ukrolancets in play. Reserves could last through 2025 based on the loss rate leading to May 2024. At an accelerated loss rate, Russians will start to have trouble maintaining its frontline strength much sooner, perhaps as early as the end of the year. With diminished artillery, Russia’s offensive and defensive capacity will be diminished. Along with burn rate predictions, the question is whether Ukraine can hold on for long enough for a war of attrition against artillery to work. UPDATE : Hambling’s article was dated July 17. On Jul 30, David Axe reported that in the Kharkiv Oblast, a Ukrainian drone spotted an odd object which turned out to possibly be a North Korean Bulsae-4. The Bulsae-4 is an armored personnel carrier, but also a six-wheeled, missile-armed tank destroyer. (It has) a top turret with eight anti-tank guided missiles, each likely weighing tens of pounds and ranging several miles. The Bulsae-4 is an upgrade from the Desertcross Chinese golf carts. It’s possible that North Korea will provide Russia with enough vehicles to replace the 600 it loses a month. Maybe tanks and other types of armored personnel carriers too. Axe concludes: The big question is what South Korea will do. It’s worth noting that South Korea builds some of the best weapons in the world—and in larger numbers than almost any other country, likely including North Korea. The North Korean factor will throw Ukraine and allies for a curve. We need a gazillion Ukrolancets, if nothing else. Vikram Mittal is on LinkedIn. If you’re on Twitter, BlueSky or Mastodon, please help David Axe raise his profile. He has stood with Ukraine from Day One. [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/7/31/2257981/-Who-will-win-Ukraine-s-artillery-attrition-contest?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=latest_community&pm_medium=web Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/