(C) Daily Kos
This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered.
 . . . . . . . . . .



Interdiction Buoys The Day!!! [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2024-07-22  

The hypothesis is that NATO and/or allies can help Ukraine significantly with a “near Russia” interdiction campaign. The basic premise is that 1) Russia tries to project that it will defend international airspace near Russia or even into near allied partner’s airspace and 2) that Russia really can’t afford to significantly or on larger scale support that stance.

Russia makes in my opinion regular bluster about intercepting foreign military aircraft in international airspace “near” Russia. I believe they want to project that they are a world power, if not one of the top world powers, by showing they will go beyond legally protected airspace to try and bluster or bully larger sphere of influence. Recently Russia intercepted US bombers over the Barents Sea and the article references an older intercept (and crash) of US Reaper drone over the Black Sea (ny1.com/....). Another recent event is NATO jets intercepting Russian jets flying over the Baltic Sea in civilian airspace with no transponders and no communications (www.stripes.com/....). Another recent example is Japan scrambling jets to intercept a Russian intelligence plane (www.newsweek.com/...). These are just meant as recent examples and I believe a modest search would yield more.

So given that Russia has a strong desire for projecting air power in international airspace, why is this a weakness that can be take advantage of? This requires the presumption that Russia has limitations on Russian ability to consistently mount sorties, long term. The hypothesis is that Russia is limited on spare parts (avionics anyone?) including trained personnel for supporting operations. The hypothesis is that Russia needs to primarily support sustained bombing sorties for the war in Ukraine and any significant competing campaign would require diversion of resources. Heck, any significant competing campaign might accelerate the loss of airworthy aircraft due to accelerated maintenance needs!!!

So how to do this? With a set of balls from at least several of Ukraine’s allies, likely NATO in general, even better partnering with Japan. All our allies need regular training and patrol runs, just push them over into a “more aggressive stance” in international airspace around Russia. There is a huge portion of the circumference of Russia where this strategy could be deployed, including across the arctic. Japan and US across the Pacific coast and islands of Russia. Either Russia will look impotent if can’t counter this approach or they do and draw away precious resources from the war effort in Ukraine.

But this is a provocation and Russia will respond! Ok, really, I have to discuss this? Putin has been assassinating people in NATO countries, even prior to the start of the war in Ukraine, and we are going to pander to him? Putin and Russia are operating sabotage and/or election interference attempts across Europe and USA. Russia is GPS jamming in Northern Europe and in the Baltic. Frankly Russia has been allowed to be a bad actor in power projection beyond what is reasonable and something needs to be done. And the allied opportunity is all legal in international airspace.

Frankly there is about only one option left for Russia to respond to anything the West does given Russia is already trying pretty hard at assassination, sabotage, and trying to rig elections. That would be actual destruction of vulnerable sea-based infrastructure. Frankly I think it is worth the risk, letting Putin hold infrastructure hostage is not a reason to do a nonviolent rebuff of Russian atrocities with Russian air forces, including targeting playgrounds, kindergartens, and hospitals. If Putin pulls that card then the gloves on lethal support and targeting inside Russia need to come off. Those and similar other support we could escalate to Ukraine should be enough to hold back actual damage to sea infrastructure. Including, as well, that if Russia actually starts attacking ally property then our allies are open to active defense, which I predict would not go well for Russia and further degrade their power projection image.

Net, I believe there is a real benefit (including for children’s lives) to aggressively and legally patrolling near Russia to see if Russia will try to maintain existing strategy of airpower projection which then would be a risk to further degradation of Russian airworthiness.

[END]
---
[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/7/22/2257064/-Interdiction-Buoys-The-Day?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=more_community&pm_medium=web

Published and (C) by Daily Kos
Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified.

via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds:
gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/