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Is 2024 Still the Abortion Election? What We Find at Voter's Doors [1]

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Date: 2024-07-12  

In April, i wrote in a DKos post:

President Biden and Democrats in general have a secret weapon this year. Reproductive Freedom is driving voters (and volunteers) in expected and surprising ways. Not just in states where there are Constitutional Amendments on the ballot. Hope Springs from Field PAC [website] volunteers everywhere are seeing this, whether it’s because a voter has self-identified as a single issue Abortion Rights voter for 2024, or name Abortion as the “most urgent issue” for the country, state or locally.

In the ensuing months, Hope Springs volunteers collected and organizers verified 185,718 signatures to get their state’s Reproductive Freedom Amendments on the November ballot. We are currently following up with those signators of their commitment to vote for their ballot initiative in November. Most we’ve reached did so. But not all (which is why we follow-up, even though most will).

We have now found 401,138 Abortion single issue voters in the 12 Swing States where we are knocking on doors, and we are likely to find many more through Labor Day. But we’ve noticed that we aren’t finding them to the same degree we did in previous years. Even in the states with ballot initiatives, voter responses are not coming back in the same percentages that they did in 2022 and 2023.

We are reaching more voters (because we have had more volunteers) than ever before. Last year, in Ohio, 28% of the voters who responded they had a single issue that determined how they voted identified abortion as that issue. This year, in Arizona, 21% of the voters who identified a single issue identified Democracy. 11% have identified abortion (remember, these are Democrats and unaffiliated voters). In Florida, 13% of those who identified a single issue gave the The Economy as the issue that will determine their vote. 8% identified abortion. This was double those who had done so in 2023. So there’s that.

In Nevada, 22% of those who identified a single issue gave the The Economy as the issue that will determine their vote. 13% identified abortion, almost doubling that number from last year.

It’s worse outside the Amendment/Ballot Initiative States. Pennsylvania had been a leader in this regard last year (not as high as Ohio, but otherwise, top of the list). This year, only 7% are telling us that abortion is their single issue. In Michigan, that number is 5%. In Wisconsin, it’s 8%.

Two years ago, when Dobbs was still on the horizon of the Supreme Court, voters were expressing concerns (in addition to economic topics) about Ukraine, Crime, Education topics and Racism. In 2021, voters who told us Abortion was a Top Issue hovered around 4%. And we were still around that range (4%-8%) when we first started canvassing in 2022. But the Dobbs ruling leaked became the Dobbs ruling, striking down Roe v Wade, and we started seeing double digits. In the Ohio suburbs (where we had been canvassing), by the time the November (2023) election rolled around, 28% of the voters we talked to rated Reproductive Freedom as a Top or their Single Issue.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/7/12/2253522/-Is-2024-Still-the-Abortion-Election-What-We-Find-at-Voter-s-Doors?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=more_community&pm_medium=web

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