(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Ukraine Invasion Day 786: RU offensive will likely start in June [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.'] Date: 2024-04-18 CIA Director Bill Burns warned that unless US sends more military support, Ukraine could “lose” the war against Russia by the end of the year. There is a very real risk that the Ukrainians could lose on the battlefield by the end of 2024, or at least put Putin in a position where he could dictate the terms of a political settlement.” Ukrainian officials clarified that the Ukrainian strike on a Russian military airfield in occupied Dzhankoi, Crimea overnight on April 16 to 17 caused significant damage to Russian air defense equipment. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed on April 17 that Ukrainian forces conducted a successful strike against the Russian airfield in Dzhankoi.[22] Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on April 18 that the strike destroyed or critically damaged four S-400 air defense launchers, three radar stations, an air defense equipment control point, and a Murom-M airspace surveillance system.[23] x How desperate is Ukraine’s shortage of air-defense missiles? A Russian drone flew 70 miles, parked overhead of the Ukrainian air base in Dnipro and walked in rockets that apparently damaged or destroyed three Ukrainian MiG-29 fighters. #ukraine #russia https://t.co/BjyrGOCg9d pic.twitter.com/IDDR8MGfUg — David Axe (@daxe) April 19, 2024 Russian forces launched a limited series of drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of April 17 to 18 and during the day on April 18. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 13 Shahed-136/131 drones from Primorsko-Akhartsk, Krasnodar Krai and occupied Cape Chauda, Crimea and that Ukrainian forces shot down all the drones.[57] Russian sources claimed that Russian forces struck the Pokrovsk Machine Building Plant and a military equipment repair site in Pokrovsk, Donetsk City with unspecified missiles overnight.[58]Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Military Administration Head Serhiy Lysak reported on April 18 that Russian forces struck Dnipropetrovsk Oblast with two unspecified missiles and damaged an infrastructure facility and an unspecified enterprise.[59] Geolocated footage published on April 18 shows Russian strikes near Liubymivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.[60] A Russian source claimed that Russian forces struck an S-300 missile system near Liubymivka and two or three MiG-29 aircraft at the Aviatorske airfield south of Dnipro City.[61] The Ukrainian Kharkiv Oblast Prosecutor’s Office stated on April 18 that Russian forces likely used an S-300 missile to strike Sorokivka, Kharkiv Oblast in the afternoon.[62] www.understandingwar.org/... x The take-off of 6 Tu-95ms aircraft was recorded Vector of movement towards the launch positions. The number and route may change during the night In the case of a combat mission, we expect a launch of missiles around 02:00-03:30 am — Ukraine Front Line (@EuromaidanPR) April 18, 2024 Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Head Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov specified that Russian offensive effort that Ukrainian officials have been forecasting will likely begin in June 2024. Budanov stated in an April 17 article in the Washington Post that Russia will launch a “big” offensive in June 2024 with the aim of seizing all of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts.[1] Budanov also stated that Russian forces will try to make battlefield gains throughout 2024 as part of efforts to influence Western decision-making. Budanov had previously forecasted that a future major Russian offensive would begin in late May or early June 2024, and it is notable that Budanov has now narrowed his forecast to June and identified the likely aim of the Russian offensive. Previous major Russian offensive efforts have similarly aimed to seize the remainder of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.[2] Ukrainian officials, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, have recently warned about the threat of a potential future Russian ground offensive operation targeting Kharkiv City.[3] Ukrainian officials have repeatedly warned that US security assistance is vital to Ukraine’s ability to defend against possible future Russian offensive operations in summer 2024.[4] ISW continues to assess that current Ukrainian artillery and air defense shortages resulting from the lack of US security assistance are allowing Russian forces to make marginal tactical advances and that future Russian assaults may be able to achieve more significant gains should the US continue to withhold assistance to Ukraine.[5] Ukrainian forces have, however, previously demonstrated their ability to repel Russian assaults and inflict significant personnel and equipment losses on Russian forces when adequately provisioned.[6] www.understandingwar.org/... x Drones from the Main Intelligence Directorate attacked the 590th separate radio-technical unit of military unit 84680 in the Russian city of Kovylkino. This is approximately 680 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. Local residents are posting videos showing a column of smoke at… pic.twitter.com/IB4yl2taQB — Dr. Khaled Alfaiomi (@Alfaiomi) April 17, 2024 Euromaidan Press @EuromaidanPress Ukraine says it has destroyed the following Russian equipment in occupied Dzhankoi:4 launchers of the S-400 surface-to-air missile system;3 radar stations; an air defense control center; Fundament-M airspace surveillance equipment. Budanov also stated on April 17 that Ukraine plans to counter future Russian offensive operations by continuing strikes against Russian military targets within Russia. Budanov stated in his interview with the Washington Post that the GUR plans to strike Russian defense industrial base (DIB) and critical military targets, such as airfields and command and control posts, in response to Russia’s forecasted summer 2024 offensive.[7] Budanov stated that these strikes are intended to show that Russian President Vladimir Putin cannot “protect the [Russian] population from the war.” ISW continues to assess that Ukrainian strikes against targets within Russia are an appropriate component of Ukraine’s campaign to degrade industries that support the Russian war effort and military capabilities deployed in the Russian rear.[8] Recent Ukrainian strikes that have targeted Russian military infrastructure within Russia, threatened Russian oil refining and exports, and increased pressure on Russia’s air defense umbrella have demonstrated that Ukraine can achieve some asymmetrical impacts through strikes with limited numbers of mostly domestically produced weapons.[9] www.understandingwar.org/... Polish prosecutors said they arrested a man on suspicion of working with Russia’s military intelligence on an alleged plot to assassinate Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Germany arrested two men on suspicion that they were working with Russia to plot sabotage attacks on United States military sites in Germany as a way to undermine support for the war in Ukraine. The men are both dual nationals of Germany and Russia. arrested two men on suspicion that they were working with Russia to plot sabotage attacks on United States military sites in Germany as a way to undermine support for the war in Ukraine. The men are both dual nationals of Germany and Russia. China’s Eurasian Affairs envoy Li Hui held talks on the Ukraine war and bilateral relations with the Ukrainian ambassador to China, Pavlo Riabikin, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs said. It did not elaborate. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told a meeting of G7 foreign ministers that Ukraine had an “urgent, critical need for more air defence”, as Kyiv’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, pressed allies for more Patriot systems. Valdis Dombrovskis, executive vice president of the European Commission, said the European Union sees signs that China is supplying dual-use components to Russia that could be used to make weapons. SOURCE: AL JAZEERA AND NEWS AGENCIES Key Takeaways: Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Head Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov specified that the Russian offensive effort that Ukrainian officials have been forecasting will likely begin in June 2024. Budanov also stated on April 17 that Ukraine plans to counter future Russian offensive operations by continuing strikes against Russian military targets within Russia. Russian forces reportedly continue to intensify crypto-mobilization efforts ahead of the expected Russian summer 2024 offensive operation but will likely struggle to establish effective operational- and strategic-level reserves rapidly. Ukrainian officials clarified that the Ukrainian strike on a Russian military airfield in occupied Dzhankoi, Crimea overnight on April 16 to 17 caused significant damage to Russian air defense equipment. Russian milbloggers seized on a violent crime committed by a migrant in Moscow on April 18 to reiterate calls for further restrictions in Russian migration policies. Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Avdiivka and Donetsk City. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s (RFE/RL) “Schemes” investigative project, citing Ukrainian intelligence, reported on April 17 that Russia’s defense industry is using US- and Japanese-made components in the navigation and communication systems of Russian Sukhoi fixed wing aircraft. To avoid Ukrainian sea-borne attacks, Russia largely moved its Black Sea Fleet from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk, where it is improving infrastructure to support long-term basing, per UK intelligence. x ⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - APR 18, 2024 ■ Another day of modest equipment losses ■ Engagements & casualties above 7-day average however ■ 89 🇷🇺 artillery strikes vs 2 🇺🇦 ones See dashboard for further data#UkraineWar #UkraineRussiaWar 📈 https://t.co/cIdIsRHxr5 pic.twitter.com/dFRbgan3oA — Ragnar Gudmundsson 🇮🇸🇺🇦 (@ragnarbjartur) April 18, 2024 EU members and institutions have together given more than twice as much as the U.S. to Ukraine. WSJ EDITORIAL BOARD: “.. Mike Johnson’s behavior is called leadership, and the GOP would be more popular and better able to govern if more of its members showed such mettle themselves—or had more respect for those who demonstrate it.” x Trump assails European allies, saying they should "match the money put in" by the US to help Ukraine. In fact, Europe has spent more than the US. As of January, EU institutions have committed $93.2 billion to $74.3 billion by the US in total military, financial and humanitarian… — Peter Baker (@peterbakernyt) April 18, 2024 x "Trump’s proposals completely ignore the previous, hard-won lessons that offering territory to dictators on the march will hardly satisfy them." "Ignore" is the kindest interpretation of it. https://t.co/8qhMPy7UNi — The Bulwark (@BulwarkOnline) April 18, 2024 Wednesday night, Congressman Jared Moskowitz, known for his use of humor and sarcasm to make his points, declared: “Just submitted an amendment to Bill drafting appointing MTG [Marjorie Taylor Greene] as Putin’s Special Envoy to the United States Congress.” Moskowitz’s amendment was in response to Congresswoman Greene’s amendments requiring members to “conscript in the Ukrainian military” if they vote for the Ukraine military funding bill, as Juliegrace Brufke reported. www.alternet.org/... x Mariupol had a population of half a million, like Toulouse, Bologna or Miami before Russia razed it to the ground. Kharkiv at 1.5m is the size of Munich & Prague. Aleppo was even bigger before Putin helped Assad destroy it. The West is worried more about hypothetical escalation… https://t.co/f4X5mtQpPh pic.twitter.com/zwrHoBGybw — Garry Kasparov (@Kasparov63) April 17, 2024 [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/4/18/2235927/-Ukraine-Invasion-Day-786-RU-offensive-will-likely-start-in-June?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/