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Does GOTV for primary elections help with GOTV for the general election? [1]

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Date: 2024-03-07  

I’ve long heard that voting in the primary election is the best predictor of voting in the general election. It seems obvious, but can it be used to encourage voting in the general election? If so, how can I get involved?

I guess we need to know the exact reason for this relationship between voting in the primary and general elections? Is it because

1. these voters are already highly engaged and motivated to vote? or...

2. voting in the primary MAKES them more engaged and creates a habit of voting?

If the first is the explanation, then GOTV during the primaries will not affect GOTV during the general election — it will just connect with a group that was already going to vote. But if it’s the second explanation, then we should be doing GOTV at all times, for every election (big and small, primary and general). The thing is, during a big election here in GA, I get tons of encouragement to vote, but campaigns and parties are silent at other times (local elections, primaries).

Is this because it doesn’t matter, or is it because the parties are really driven by individual candidates, so there’s really no resources or motivation to do serious GOTV for small elections or primaries.

I’d expect that voting in primaries (and local elections) would increase general election turnout for a few reasons:

1. It makes sure that people are registered, and have confirmed that they are registered.

2. It gets people familiar with the process. They know where their polling place is. They know where early voting locations are. They know how to request an absentee ballot.

3. It may get them committed to a candidate and encourage them to continue supporting through the general election.

4. It reinforces the message that voting is important, and others (including the Democratic party) care about their participation even when it’s not just to defeat a Republican.

This year in Georgia, the main primary is on May 21 (the Presidential primary vote is in March). The primary will cover a variety of offices, including the US House, the state legislature, state judges, county government, and school boards. Many of these positions will only be contested by Democrats — so the winner of the primary will most likely take office.

So, does voting in the primary matter for GOTV in November, and how can we encourage GOTV (and registration) right now. I can’t find anyone organizing efforts around the primary.

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