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Another reason for optimism in November [1]

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Date: 2024-03-05  

Despite an economy that is booming, numerous recent polls indicate a significant percentage of the U.S. population believes the economy is not good (here, here, here). Typically, a bad economy would not bode well for the incumbent in the White House, as that person has lost almost every time the economy was poor heading into November.

One factor in the disconnect between how the economy is actually doing and how average people think it’s doing is the end of pandemic relief for the 55% of Americans who received funds, so they have less money to spend.

Then there’s the inflation rate, which has come down from pandemic highs, but is still higher in key items like housing, gas, milk. eggs, and other grocery items that people purchase frequently, so in their daily world, it seems like everything is more expensive. Of course, as has been chronicled here and elsewhere, at lot of the grocery inflation is due to corporate greed, not Biden’s policies. As for gasoline, not only do presidents not have much control over that, Russia and the Saudis conspired to stick it to Biden and the U.S. by taking actions that raised gasoline prices.

Personal debt is up, partly as a result of higher costs, but also because of higher interest rates and the end of pandemic relief funds.

Whatever the reasons, it’s becoming harder for many households to keep up and pay their bills despite the robust economy overall. The average American doesn’t necessarily care about the “why”, only that they feel it, so Biden’s approval takes a hit because he’s in the White House.

But respected economics blogger and former DailyKos diarist, New Deal Democrat gives me hope:

Because the short leading economic indicators continue to suggest improvement in the economy in the months ahead, I do expect real income measures to further improve as well. Once households feel that improvement, Biden’s approval rating, and his standing in the polls, should improve as well.

We have 8 months between today and the election in November for the effects of the positive economy to be felt by average consumers. Given that the incumbent president wins re-election virtually every time when the economy is doing well, I’m feeling more confident in a Biden victory despite polls, Supreme Court decisions, etc. You should, too.

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