(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Canvassing and Early Vote Mobilization NY-03 Special Election: Weekly Hope Springs Report [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.'] Date: 2024-02-08 “This election is scary,” one volunteer told me last night. “I really wish we could build up a better lead.” No kidding. Hope Springs from Field PAC has organizers and volunteers out every day now as we approach Early Voting (Saturday) and Election Day (13th). More than 10,000 mail-in or absentee votes have been cast so far. Among mail voters, registered Democrats are +29 points, a 3 point increase over the mail vote numbers in the 2022 election. 60% of them are female voters, which is a 3% increase over 2022 numbers. And, among women mail voters, Democrats have a commanding 2 to 1 lead, an improvement over the 1.7 to 1 lead Democrats had in all of the early votes in 2022. After the first weekend of early in person voting, we currently have nearly 27,000 total early votes reported. The early in-person votes are +13.7 points Democratic, a nearly 6 point increase over numbers observed in 2022. In Nassau County, the latest reports are that 23,578 ballots have been cast, 10,160 of them Democrats, 8,153 GOP and 4,404 unaffiliated. In Queens County, 2,086 Democrats have voted early in person and the 840 Republicans have voted. (That’s actually not a good sign for Democrats, who have a much higher percentage of voters in Queens.) Democrats also account for a greater share of the absentee ballots that have so far come back district wide: 5,672 compared to 2,672 for Republicans. Unenrolled voters account for 1,568 absentee ballots that have been returned. So it seems that the latest polling (Tom Suozzi: 48% / Mazi Pilip: 44%) still holds true. But it’s not a comfortable lead. The district had 224,741 registered Democrats, 161,624 registered Republicans, 5,348 registered Conservatives and 161,057 who were registered as unaffiliated to a political party as of November. So tonight’s debate means a lot. Maybe even the whole ballgame. And the Democrat, Tom Suozzi, is charging hard beforehand. Democratic Long Island congressional candidate Tom Suozzi slammed his Republican opponent, Mazi Melesa Pilip, on Wednesday for helping to kill a bipartisan border security bill that would’ve also aided Ukraine and Israel. Joined by several fellow moderate Democratic lawmakers, Suozzi trashed Pilip’s GOP allies for killing the bill at the behest of former President Donald Trump. It will be really interesting what the highly sheltered newcomer when she comes face to face with an aggressive and experienced pol. And it could all depend on how News 12 handles that. If Pilip was hoping for a Biden apologist, that seems unlikely: “The migrant issue is a very big issue,” Suozzi said Wednesday. “It’s not only a border crisis at the southern border, it’s a Washington, D.C., crisis. We have failed to address this issue.” Republicans are hoping it proves to be a Democratic issue. New York Democrats spent months last year pointing fingers at Washington lawmakers and each other for not solving it. The GOP is now seeking to take advantage, warning of a violent migrant crime wave. You can’t turn on the TV now without being inundated with political ads. And voters mention that at their doors. More than a few people have wondered, when will this all be over? The area we are canvassing is definitely a GOP stronghold. The primary early voting location we are feeding has had more than 1000 Republicans vote early — the only early vote location to do so. It really made clear where we were walking when we heard that! But there are Democratic votes to be found, and our presence on the streets only reinforces the need for other Democrats to go vote! Our job is to turn out Democrats and progressives in spite even though we have a lot more infrequent voters on our side. Politico says that Republicans have “a robust field program,” although we aren’t seeing that in the heel of the district. [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/2/8/2222167/-Canvassing-and-Early-Vote-Mobilization-NY-03-Special-Election-Weekly-Hope-Springs-Report?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=more_community&pm_medium=web Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/