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Seriously, ignore the polls [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2024-02-06  

In early 1984, nearing the end of his first term, Ronald Reagan was polling 6 points behind astronaut John Glenn and statistically tied with the eventual Democratic nominee, Walter Mondale. Reagan went on to win 525 electoral votes in 49 states with 58.8 percent of the popular vote in one of the most dominating presidential wins in US history.

In February of 2004, George W. Bush was looking at a crushing defeat as polling had him down to John Kerry 43% to 55%. Bush nevertheless won reelection with 286 electoral votes and 50.7 percent of the popular vote.

While Barack Obama kept a modest but consistent lead in February polling over Mitt Romney heading into the 2012 general election, there were multiple polls that showed Romney winning a majority of votes, and more than a few indicating a tie. Of course Obama ended up winning a second term with 332 electoral votes and 51.1% of the popular vote.

Do not look at the polls. They mean nothing at this point. But this doesn’t mean there are no indicators at all. We know that Democrats have continued to win special election after special election, often on the issue of abortion. We know that Democratic and liberal organizations are absolutely crushing those on the right in fund raising. We know that consumer sentiment is climbing at a faster rate than we’ve seen in decades. And we know that Trump keeps losing legal battles, very likely with more and worse to come.

Frankly, anyone referencing horserace polls right now as having any predictive meaning should feel embarrassed (ahem, mainstream media). Biden is running against the most corrupt, malevolent, idiotic, and destructive candidate in the history of this nation. His team has a treasure trove of material to use against Trump in ad after ad, without having to bend the truth a millimeter. As long as we all pitch in and keep our eye on the ball, 2024 is going to look a lot like 1984.

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