(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Ukraine Invasion Day 694: RU may lack necessary reserves for simultaneous offensive operations [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.'] Date: 2024-01-17 A Ukrainian intelligence official reported that Russian forces lack the necessary operational reserves to conduct simultaneous offensive efforts in more than one direction in Ukraine. Russian forces conducted a series of missile and drone strikes largely targeting Odesa and Kharkiv cities on the night of January 16 to 17. The Ukrainian Air Force stated that Russian forces launched two S-300 missiles from Belgorod Oblast towards Kharkiv City and 20 Shahed-136/-131 drones from Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai and that Ukrainian forces shot down 19 of the drones over Zaporizhia, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kirovohrad oblasts.[12] Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command stated that Russian drones largely targeted Odesa City.[13] Ukrainian officials reported that Russian drones and missiles damaged residential buildings in Odesa and Kharkiv cities.[14] Russians abandon entire tank regiment to escape from Krynky area "That a whole tank regiment with potentially tens of T-90 tanks apparently is dedicated to the recovery task speaks to the intensity of Russian losses around Krynky," Forbes writes😹 pic.twitter.com/MUqs0OzBtm Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Deputy Chief Major General Vadym Skibitskyi reported on January 17 that Russia does not have enough reserves to conduct large-scale offensive operations in several directions at the same time.[1] Skibitskyi stated that it is impossible for Russian forces to conduct strategically or operationally significant offensive operations without “powerful” reserves and implied that Russia does not have such reserves.[2] Skibitskyi noted that mobilization measures are ongoing in Russia, likely referring to the current Russian crypto-mobilization campaign that relies heavily on volunteer recruitment and the coercive mobilization of convicts and migrants.[3] It is unclear if Russia’s ongoing crypto-mobilization campaign has provided or would be able to provide the increased number of personnel that an intensified Russian offensive effort would require. Skibitskyi reported on January 15 that Russia recruits about 30,000 personnel per month, which the Russian military uses to replenish losses and form reserve regiments, and that Russia would need to conduct “mobilization” (likely referring to another “partial mobilization” like Russia conducted in September 2022 or a large-scale general mobilization) to establish a “powerful strategic reserve.”[4] Skibitskyi’s statements suggest that although the Russian military is able to generate enough manpower to conduct routine operational-level rotations in Ukraine, Russian forces may not necessarily be able to generate manpower at a rate that would allow Russian forces to quickly re-establish the operational reserves necessary for simultaneous offensive efforts in several directions.[5] ⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - JAN 17, 2024 ■ Most combat engagements so far this year but strikes on both sides below 7-day average ■ Casualties & equipment losses below average; include 3 MLRS ■ KIU: +39 officers; 3.2 per day in last four weeks See dashboard for further data… pic.twitter.com/WVXHPKeO9E Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 — Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast) Russian forces reportedly advanced south of Kreminna amid continued positional fighting along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on January 17. ...Positional fighting continued northeast of Kupyansk near Synkivka and Petropavlivka; northwest of Kreminna near Ploshchanka and Makiivka; west of Kreminna near Terny, Yampolivka, and Torske; southwest of Kreminna near Dibrova, north of Hryhorivka, and near the Serebryanske forest area; and south of Kreminna near Bilohorivka (12km south of Kreminna).[69] Elements of the Russian 1st Guards Tank Army (Western Military District) reportedly continue to operate in the Kupyansk direction, and elements of the Russian 7th Motorized Rifle Brigade (2nd Luhansk People’s Republic [LNR] Army Corps) reportedly continue to operate near Bilohorivka.[70] Ukrainian officials continue to suggest that Russian forces are preparing to renew offensive actions in the Kupyansk and Lyman directions, likely in late January or early February 2024. Ukrainian Ground Forces Command Spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Volodymyr Fityo reported on January 17 that Russian forces are currently shifting their offensive efforts from the Kupyansk direction to the Lyman direction.[71] Ukrainian Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration Head Oleh Synehubov stated that Russian attacks in the Kupyansk direction have deceased in the past three weeks to two to five attacks per day.[72] Synehubov stated that Ukrainian forces are expecting renewed Russian assaults in the Kupyansk direction as soon as consistent sub-zero temperatures freeze the fields and soil in the area.[73] Current weather forecasts suggest that the temperature in Luhansk Oblast will hover at or below consistent temperatures cold enough to freeze the ground in late January 2024, suggesting that Russian forces could renew assaults with ground conducive to maneuver in late January or early February 2024.[74] Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 — Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas) Positional engagements continued near Bakhmut on January 17, but there were no confirmed changes to the front in this area. Ukrainian and Russian sources stated that positional engagements continued northeast of Bakhmut near Vesele, Bilohorivka (21km northeast of Bakhmut), and Spirne; north of Bakhmut near Rozdolivka; northwest of Bakhmut near Hryhorivka, and Bohdanivka; west of Bakhmut near Khromove and Ivanivske; and southwest of Bakhmut near Klishchiivka and Andriivka.[75] ... Elements of the Russian 98th Airborne (VDV) Division reportedly continue to operate northwest of Bakhmut, and elements of the 200th Motorized Rifle Brigade (Northern Fleet) reportedly continue to operate in the Bakhmut direction.[78] Elements of the Russian “Sever-V” Volunteer Brigade (Russian Volunteer Corps) reportedly continue to operate near Bohdanivka, and elements of the Russian “Nevsky” Detachment are reportedly operating in the Soledar direction as part of the Russian Volunteer Corps.[79] Positional engagements continued near Avdiivka on January 17, but there were no confirmed changes to the front in this area. Ukrainian and Russian sources stated that positional engagements continued northwest of Avdiivka near Novokalynove, Novobakhmutivka, and Stepove; near the Avdiivka Coke Plant in northwestern Avdiivka; northeast of Avdiivka near Kamianka; and southwest of Avdiivka near Sieverne, Pervomaiske, and Nevelske.[80] ... Ukrainian Donetsk Oblast Military Administration head Vadym Filashkin stated that Russian forces have dropped 250 glide bombs on Avdiivka since the beginning of 2024, compared to 149 glide bombs in all of 2023.[82] Elements of the Russian 110th Motorized Rifle Brigade (1st Donetsk People’s Republic [DNR] Army Corps) are reportedly operating near Avdiivka.[83] [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/1/17/2217883/-Ukraine-Invasion-Day-694-RU-may-lack-necessary-reserves-for-simultaneous-offensive-operations?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/