(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Ukraine: End of Quarter Ground War Review [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.'] Date: 2023-12-31 So, with all the things that have been going on in the past three months with back-and-forth attacks and political fights in Congress and what have you, it is easy to lose sight of the overall progress of the battle on the ground itself. One day this patch changes hands. Two days later that patch does. Overall, what has changed on the ground? There are many ways to measure what is happening in a battle. Equipment is one, but the reporting on this is uneven and incomplete. Casualties is another, but what I said for equipment is doubly true here. Also, we have plenty of attempts to report on these two aspects already in Dkos and through other sources. What I will present is only one aspect: the ground. Who has attacked where? Who has captured what? This is not an attempt to pass any sort of judgement . It is simply a listing of results. This also ignores the long-range attacks going on, e.g. Crimea. This is the ground war. As with equipment and casualties, there are various sources for where things stand on the ground. However, with some exceptions most of these sources pretty closely agree with each other (within a few hundred meters) with the main difference being WHEN each source makes a change in the location of the “front lines.” For this effort, I consulted three mappers and, when they largely agreed, used one for the details. The results here therefore use the Ukraine Control Map by Project Owl OSINT. Method: The Ukraine Control Map and others update to my GoogleEarth automatically. On 30 September, I saved the location of the front line. Over the course of the last three months, every few days, I compared this front line with the new day’s line noting movements. On 31 December, I again saved the front line. In the map photos below, the PURPLE line is 30 Sep and the GREEN line is 31 Dec with the difference recorded as RED (Russian advance) or BLUE (Ukrainian advance). I will show these lines in segments from north to south. All map photos below are the same scale with the exception of two showing close ups and the one showing Dnipro Left Bank, which would not fit at the scale the rest are shown. I’ve done this to make comparison between sections possible. Kup’yans’k and Vicinity: Kupyansk and Vicinity Russia attacked in this area with the apparent goal of capturing the city. They, of course, failed. Russia had attacked and held ground within about 1 km of the small town of Syn’kivka before 30 September. In October, Ukraine pushed them back about a km. Russia continues to attempt to attack towards this town even now several weeks later. Additionally, about 20-25 km east and southeast of Kup’yans’k, Russia did move forward some, but this really didn’t accomplish much if anything. So Ukraine captured about 2 sq km and Russia captured about 23 sq km in this sector. Area West oF Kreminna: Kreminna Area Russia attacked in this area, but for what reason I really couldn’t say other than securing Kreminna itself. There is no really organization to their advances. Perhaps they are trying to drive back to Lyman (extreme left above), but that’s a pipe dream. Overall, Ukraine captured a bit over 1 sq km and Russia captured about 12 sq km. Berestove: There is a ridiculous little attack about 1700 meters up a railroad track west of Berestove (no map really needed). I figure this is some local Russian commander making a name for himself by capturing 1 whole sq km! Bakhmut and Vicinity: Bakhmut and Vicinity This was the scene of one of the larger movements. Russia attacked both north and south of town undoing pretty much all of Ukraine’s summer progress on the northern side and a small part of it to the south. The movement north of town may even threaten Ivanivske a mere 2.5 km away, though this fortress town has seen worse so it likely won’t be a big problem. Ukraine made minor advances to the south of town around the famous rail line that has changed hands repeatedly. Overall, Ukraine advanced just under 2 sq km and Russia captured about 19 sq km. Area NW of Horlivka: Area NW of Horlivka Ukraine put forth a concerted effort to capture an area at Pivdenne that is made up largely of … slag heaps. No, I don’t understand it, but it must be important for some reason because they fought for days and days over those heaps and once they took them, they took artillery for days and days. Perhaps it has something to do with getting observation on Horlivka (east) or preventing Russian observation of Toretsk (west), but that is 100% guesswork. I don’t get it. In any case, after a long struggle, Ukraine captured just under 8 sq km. Avdiivka and Vicinity: Avdiivka and Vicinity People here are pretty well informed on this one as it has been widely covered on these pages. The Russian attack started just after 30 Sep, so the entire movement is shown above. For all of its efforts, Russia has captured about 24 sq km in five areas. So maybe 500 casualties per sq km??? Between Avdiivka and Mar’inka, Ukraine took a swath of fields north of Staromyhailivka totaling about 3 sq km. It’s that long blue block at the bottom above and the top below. It appears to be an empty field. Mar’inka and Vicinity: Marinka and Vicinity It is the middle section on this map with both red and blue on it. This also has been widely reported here, so I won’t go into detail. Russia appears to have finished capturing the town and likely a bit beyond plus a field to the north of town. Ukraine took a field between these two Russian advances, though a Ukrainian withdrawal from that area wouldn’t surprise me. Overall, Ukraine took about 1 sq km and Russia about 6 sq km. Novomykhailivka: Novomykhailivka Novomykhailivka — Closer View In recent days, Russia appears to have launched a good sized attack towards this tiny town that is approaching up the ravines and roads from the south and east. They have taken about 10 sq km in this effort so far. This is an ongoing attack and the lines are changing. Staromaiors’ke area: Staromaiorske Area About 5 km west of town, Russia has attacked moving forward almost 3 km to some ravines. The purpose of this attack is unknown, though some mappers have it turning east to threaten Staromaiorske itself. It has captured about 5 sq km. 15 km east, they moved into a small patch that is 2-3 sq km. Further west, there are tiny bits and pieces that have changed hands with Russia getting 4-5 sq km and Ukraine getting about 1 sq km. Robotyne Enclave: Robotyne Enclave There’s been some back and forth here. The overall result is that Ukraine has been pushed back from Verbove to the SE and Novoprokopivka to the SW. Additionally, Ukraine a while ago saw some success due west of Robotyne toward Kopani, but that stopped pretty quickly. Also, a patch of ground north of Kopani. Overall, as of today, Russia has taken 16 sq km and Ukraine 2-3 sq km. Verbove — Close up The Russian attack at Verbove (right) is ongoing and has seen noticeable recent movement , namely a 3 km advance that could threaten Ukraine’s hold on the ex-Russian defensive line Ukraine captured during the summer (if it continues). The irony is that Russia is now approaching these defensive positions that they themselves dug from the very direction they themselves designed them to defend against. However, the Ukrainians here are not in a good spot with enemies to the front and rear separated by only about 3 km. Kam’yans’ke/lobkove: Kamyanske/Lobkove Two minor movements of no apparent real importance. Russia 1 sq km and Ukraine about 4 sq km. Dnipro left bank: Dnipro Left Bank (Smaller Scale than Maps Above) It is harder to gauge in absolute terms (sq km) what has happened here for a couple of reasons. First, it has been back and forth, back and forth. Second, the vast majority of the “ground” passing between the forces is marsh or water or solid or some combination of these three. In the south in particular, with a minor attack on a very tiny strip of houses by one force or the other, apparent control of an entire island may change hands. Looking only at hard land with existing structures or perhaps suitable for structures, overall, I have Russia capturing about 4 sq km (with lots of marsh between thin strips) and Ukraine capturing about 9 sq km (with lots of marsh between the river and the captured solid land). These are estimates based on map studies and could be wrong, but you get the general picture. After all, an acre or two here and there doesn’t really matter. Ukraine has footholds on the upstream portion (three blue patches at Krynky, the solar farm, and Pishchanivka) and Russia has taken some island territory downstream (red strips) south of Kherson City. So where does that leave us? [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/12/31/2214753/-Ukraine-End-of-Quarter-Ground-War-Review?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/