(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Florida State House: 2024 Ratings [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.'] Date: 2023-08-08 Up next in my state legislative posts (for 2024 ratings) is the Florida House of Representatives, which I looked at back in May and June of this year. A chart with my ratings for all the competitive seats can be found at the top of the post. As per usual, I have excluded non-competitive seats (“Safe Democrat” or “Safe Republican”). There are no rating changes for any of the seats, but there are some interesting candidate/district updates. HD 35 is now vacant, as Republican Fred Hawkins recently resigned from the chamber at the end of June. (This was addressed in the initial district post from May.) The seat is labeled vacant on my chart, though I am still considering the district to be Republican-held (still red). A special election will be held next year, as Ron DeSantis wants to delay, given his concerns about a negative impact on his Presidential run if Dems were to flip it. If I had to give a rating for the special, I’d classify it as a Toss Up for now, the same as my general rating for the seat. Three Democrats are running in the special: Rishi Bagga, who was the Dem nominee last cycle, Tom Keen, who also ran last cycle, but lost the primary, and Marucci Guzmán. There are also three candidates running on the Republican side: Osceola County School Board member Erika Booth, Ken Davenport, who ran last cycle, but lost the Republican primary, and Scotty Moore, who was the GOP nominee for Florida’s 9th Congressional District last cycle. In addition, HD 118 is also vacant, as the district’s Republican incumbent also resigned. However, this isn’t particularly significant, as the seat is not at all competitive (and is not included on my chart). Unlike HD 35, the special for HD 118 will be held this year. I’m assuming for simplicity that the GOP will hold the seat in the special election, when discussing my overall ratings of the chamber. In HD 106, Republican incumbent Fabián Basabe has recently made the news for multiple sexual assault allegations, as well as other issues, such as drunk driving. (Some articles refer to him as Miami’s George Santos). Even without the scandals, I already had the Democrats as favored to flip the district, given that Joe Biden won it by a decent margin and that Basabe just barley won the seat in 2022 amidst terrible Dem turnout, so I don’t feel any need to change my rating yet. The biggest question is whether or not Basabe will resign, and if a special election will occur, which could give Dems an extra chance to win the seat. Even if Basabe remains in office, it’s quite possible he won't run for reelection or at the very least will face a Republican primary challenger. Regardless, Democrats should have an edge, though their worst-case scenario is the GOP winning a special election, as it would give the Republicans some advantage of incumbency with a non scandal-plagued candidate. There are several new candidates (who hadn’t filed yet when I originally looked at the districts). Most notably, on the Democratic side, Orange County Soil and Water Conservation member Nate Douglas is running in HD 37, while Boca Raton Lawyer Jay Shorter is running in HD 91, and Rachelle Litt, who has served as a Mayor and as a City Council member for West Palm Beach Gardens, is running in HD 94. All three of these districts are among the top pick-up opportunities for Dems. Meanwhile, in HD 64 and HD 67, Maura Cruz Lana and Lisette Bonano, the respective Republican challengers from last cycle, are both running again, setting up potential rematches against the Dem incumbents (Lanz will have to first get through a GOP primary). Likewise, in HD 73, Derek Reich, the 2022 Democratic candidate, is also running again this cycle (setting up a potential rematch against the Republican incumbent). A full list of candidates that have currently filed can be found on the Florida Department of State website. My overall rating for the chamber is Safe Republican. The current balance in the chamber is 83R-35D, plus two vacancies (HD 35 and HD 118, as discussed above), meaning that it Republicans hold HD 35 in the special, Dems would need a net gain of at least twenty-six seats for an outright majority, with a net gain of exactly twenty-five seats producing a tied chamber, which also breaks the GOP trifecta. If the Dems flip HD 35 in the special, then the number of seats they need to flip obviously decreases by one in both scenarios. Regardless, these are all very tall orders. It should be noted, though, that Dems technically do have a path to a majority, as if they were to win every competitive seat, this would give them a net gain of thirty seats, enough to win the majority (by four seats). However, this requires Dems to win a high number of Republican-leaning seats (those classified as “Lean” or “Likely” Republican) which seems improbable given that Dems generally have a poor track record in the state. However, it’s a Toss Up as to whether the Republicans will maintain their supermajority or not, as the Dems need a net gain of just six seats to break it (or, again, five seats If they win the HD 35 special). The Democrats are already favored to flip two GOP-held seats, so flipping just four of the nine toss-ups would be enough (to break the supermajority). Note that the Republicans are also far more exposed than Democrats (likely a result of the Dems performing so poorly last cycle), with the GOP holding all nine toss-ups, and nineteen seats classified as “Lean” or “Likely” Republican (in addition to the two seats Dems are favored to flip). By contrast, there are just eleven competitive Dem-held seats (classified as “Lean” or “Likely”). One caveat though is that the Dem-held seats will likely be more seriously contested by the Republicans than many of the GOP-held seats will be by Dems. [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/8/8/2185942/-Florida-State-House-2024-Ratings Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/