(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Ukrainian Invasion Day 168: explosions in Crimea [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.', 'Backgroundurl Avatar_Large', 'Nickname', 'Joined', 'Created_At', 'Story Count', 'N_Stories', 'Comment Count', 'N_Comments', 'Popular Tags'] Date: 2022-08-09 Much disinformation about the explosion at the Russian Saky airbase in occupied Novofedorivka, on the western Crimean coast. It has affected Russian tourists at Crimea, as well as raising the potential of partisan resistance. #UPDATE Ammunition detonated at an airfield in Moscow-annexed Crimea on Tuesday but there were no victims, the Russian defence ministry said https://t.co/BYTjqMBakr Map locating Crimea and showing the situation in Ukraine, as of 0700 GMT on August 9 pic.twitter.com/gwR7UQxRvu As part of a June 1 interview, President Volodymyr Zelensky said that between 60 and 100 Ukrainian soldiers are dying on the front line every day, with a further 500 injured. “A big artillery positional war with Russia began when our positions were bombarded with shells of various calibers. This, of course, increased our losses. But today, the number of losses is decreasing because our multiple launch rocket system works very effectively against the logistics centers of the Russian army. Secondly, the Russian army is being redeployed along the entire front line. Thirdly, our army has already adapted to the tactics of the Russian army and is more mobile and can defend itself more effectively,” he added. Podolyak explained that the heavy losses of the Ukrainian army were primarily associated with the transition to the second stage of the war. In an interview with the BBC, he said that Ukraine is now losing about 30-50 soldiers a day, while in early June it was more like 100-200 soldiers. On August 9, the Adviser to the Head of the President’s Office, Mykhailo Podolyak, reported that daily losses in the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine had decreased three times compared with the beginning of June. Will be doing a catch-up military update for the last 72 hours in about 90 minutes, at midnight EST/ 9 PM PST https://t.co/vt7HYjYL36 Supporting Effort #2—Southern Axis (Russian objective: Defend Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts against Ukrainian counterattacks) Russian forces maintained defensive positions along the southern frontline and did not conduct offensive operations on August 9. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces continued to launch airstrikes at Bila Krynytsya and Andriivka, in the vicinity of the Ukrainian bridgehead near the Inhulets River, and on Ukrainian positions in Olhine and Osokorkivka near the Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border.[31] Russian forces also conducted aerial reconnaissance in northern Kherson Oblast and continued artillery fire along the line of contact in the region.[32] The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence (GUR) intercepted a Russian servicemen’s call in which he stated that Russian forces operating in Kherson Oblast do not have enough manpower to conduct an offensive operation.[33] Mykolaiv Oblast officials also reported that Russian forces shelled the outskirts of Mykolaiv City and launched rockets from the Uragan multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) at Bereznehuvate, approximately 20 km northwest of the Ukrainian bridgehead.[34] Russian forces are reportedly continuing to neglect the Zaporizhia Oblast frontline in favor of Donetsk and Kherson Oblast efforts. Zaporizhia Oblast Military Administration Head Oleksandr Starukh noted that Russian forces are periodically concentrating forces in Zaporizhia Oblast to redistribute them to Donetsk or Kherson Oblast directions.[35] Starukh added that Ukrainian military command assesses a low risk of Russian offensive operation in Zaporizhia Oblast but specified that combat operations continue at the Zaporizhia-Donetsk Oblast border. The Ukrainian Southern Operational Command did not report any changes in the Russian troop composition in Kherson Oblast on August 9.[36] Ukrainian officials maintained that Russian forces are continuing to fire using artillery systems situated at the territory of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP). The Ukrainian Southern Operational Command reported that Russian forces fired 80 Grad MLRS rockets at Nikopol from firing positions on the opposite bank of the Kakhovka Reservoir.[37] Starukh stated that Russian forces continue to use the territory of the Zaporizhzhia NPP to shell Nikopol and use the plant as a nuclear shield.[38] Ukrainian officials and social media users reported several explosions at Russian military bases and ammunition depots across the Southern Axis on August 8 and August 9. Advisor to the Kherson Oblast Administration Serhiy Khlan reported that a Russian ammunition depot suffered secondary explosions for over an hour and a half in Novooleksiivka near Henichensk (approximately 35 km north of the Crimean border).[39] Russian and Ukrainian sources reported a series of explosions at the Russian Saky airbase in occupied Novofedorivka, western Crimean coast.[40] Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov also reported 10 explosions at Russian military bases in the western part of Melitopol.[41] Ukrainian officials have not taken responsibility for the strikes on Russian military infrastructure as of the time of this publication. The Southern Operational Command only confirmed that Ukrainian forces struck Russian positions in Snihurivka (approximately 31 km east of Mykolaiv City) and two command posts in the Berislav and Khersonskyi districts.[42] www.understandingwar.org/... Supporting Effort #1—Kharkiv City (Russian objective: Defend ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum and prevent Ukrainian forces from reaching the Russian border) Russian forces conducted no confirmed ground assaults near Kharkiv City on August 9. Russian forces continued active fighting along current lines and conducted an airstrike near Verkhniy Saltiv.[28] The Ukrainian General Staff also noted continued Russian UAV aerial reconnaissance operations.[29] Russian forces continued routine shelling of Kharkiv City and surrounding settlements with tanks, tube and rocket artillery, and unspecified missiles.[30] www.understandingwar.org/... Subordinate Main Effort—Southern Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk Oblasts (Russian objective: Encircle Ukrainian forces in Eastern Ukraine and capture the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas) The Ukrainian General Staff and local officials reported that Russian forces continued to shell settlements north, west, and south of Izyum and along the Kharkiv-Donetsk Oblast border in the Slovyansk direction on August 9.[14] Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks east of Siversk on August 9. Ukrainian artillery forced Russian forces to retreat from an attempted ground assault in the Spirne area (13 km southeast of Siversk).[15] Russian forces similarly retreated after a reconnaissance-in-force effort near Ivano-Darivka (10 km southeast of Siversk) following Ukrainian bombardment.[16] Russian troops continued to shell Siversk and nearby settlements and targeted Hryhorivka with an airstrike.[17] www.understandingwar.org/... x This should not be just another news story. It should animate our approach to Russia. https://t.co/8urI6tGqlw — Edward Stringer🇺🇦 (@edwardstrngr) August 9, 2022 x Russia has begun controlling the internet in the areas of Ukraine it occupies, diverting traffic through Russian networks to make it easier to censor, surveil and digitally wall off the invaded population. https://t.co/ojGVetu7nH — New York Times World (@nytimesworld) August 10, 2022 x Twitter froze the Russian MFA’s account (@mfa_russia) for at least a week apparently for propagating claims by Russia’s Defense Min that the U.S. biolabs & USAID maybe engineered COVID-19. The MFA’s spox says Twitter is trying to shut them up. (Not always a bad thing, Maria.) pic.twitter.com/H7rO3RanxE — Kevin Rothrock (@KevinRothrock) August 9, 2022 x KHERSON/0200 UTC 10 AUG/ UKR Air Force utilized HARM missiles to destroy four S-300 anti-air complexes near Nova Kakhovka. It is assessed that this interdiction helped to facilitate the strike on Crimea by preventing RU early warning radars from tracking the launch of ACTACMs. pic.twitter.com/Kql1Ue7J3f — Chuck Pfarrer (@ChuckPfarrer) August 10, 2022 x Does Ukraine Have A Stash Of Domestically Developed Ballistic Missiles?https://t.co/OvQBzOmZqy — Tyler Rogoway (@Aviation_Intel) August 10, 2022 x Reportedly, Russia’s Air Force 43rd Regiment airfield close to the city of Saki in Crimea has been attacked. It’s located over 200 kilometers deep in the Russian-controlled rear. What could that be? 😳https://t.co/Gsl7iI35Aj pic.twitter.com/DvpSb2bHEY — Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) August 9, 2022 Russian and Ukrainian sources reported a series of large explosions deep within Russian-occupied Kherson Oblast and Crimea on August 9, but Ukrainian officials have not claimed responsibility for them as of the time of this publication. Social media users reported witnessing 12 loud explosions at the Saky airbase in Novofedorivka on the Crimean western coast.[1] Social media footage only showed the large cloud of smoke and the aftermath of the incident.[2] Social media footage also showed a large smoke cloud near Novooleksiivka in Henichensk district, in the vicinity of the Kherson Oblast-Crimean border.[3] Advisor to the Kherson Oblast Administration Serhiy Khlan reported that explosions occurred on the Russian ammunition base but noted that there is no official confirmation of Ukrainian involvement in the incident.[4] The Russian Defense Ministry claimed that several aircraft munitions detonated in the storage areas of the Saky airbase due to poor fire protocol, rejecting reports that Ukrainian strikes or sabotage at the military facility caused the explosions.[5] The Russian Defense Ministry added that the incident did not result in any casualties or damage to Russian aviation equipment. The Russian Health Ministry claimed that five civilians were wounded in the incident, however.[6] Social media footage also showed firefighters extinguishing a burning plane, which also contradicts the original Russian Defense Ministry claim.[7] Russian-appointed Head of Crimea Sergey Aksyenov claimed that Russian officials are only evacuating a few residents in homes near the airbase, but social media footage showed long traffic jams approaching the Crimean bridge and the departure of several minibusses, reportedly with evacuees.[8] Russian propagandist Margarita Simonyan claimed that the incident was a result of sabotage rather than a missile or rocket strike.[9] Russian milbloggers voiced differing opinions regarding the origin of the strike, with some speculating that Ukrainian forces used US-provided long-range army tactical missile systems (ATACMS).[10] Ukrainian forces do not have the ATACMS systems, however. The Kremlin has little incentive to accuse Ukraine of conducting strikes that caused the damage since such strikes would demonstrate the ineffectiveness of Russian air defense systems, which the Ukrainian sinking of the Moskva had already revealed. ISW does not yet have any basis independently to assess the precise cause of the explosions. The apparent simultaneity of explosions at two distinct facilities likely rules out the official Russian version of accidental fire, but it does not rule out either sabotage or long-range missile strike. Ukraine could have modified its Neptune missiles for land-attack use (as the Russians have done with both anti-shipping and anti-aircraft missiles), but there is no evidence to support this hypothesis at this time. www.understandingwar.org/... x Airport with 30 russian fighters in occupied Crimea exploded today, 200 km away from UA forces! Think whatever you want about how this happened, but one thing is clear: we'll never give in! We’ll continue to fight those who came to kill us and destroy the world as we know it! — Inna Sovsun (@InnaSovsun) August 9, 2022 x Russian military equipment claimed to be present at time of explosions at the Saky airfield in Crimea: 13 x Su-30M fighter jets 12x Su-24M/P attacker jets 1x IL-76 transport plane 6x Mi-8 helicopters - Stockpiles of aircraft armaments and parts. - Jet fuel storage tanks. pic.twitter.com/hPiUKio3rK — Igor Sushko (@igorsushko) August 9, 2022 x Today was a very good day in occupied Crimea. There was signs. pic.twitter.com/Ta42yGmmFx — Euromaidan PR (@EuromaidanPR) August 9, 2022 x This is while the official Russian story states that no aircraft were damaged in the explosions today. — Oliver Alexander (@OAlexanderDK) August 9, 2022 x Another three Russian ammunition depots were demilitarized by Ukrainian HIMARS in Donbas on Sunday. pic.twitter.com/5s0pH28Jkd — KT "Special Intelligence Operation" (@KremlinTrolls) August 9, 2022 x #Ukraine 🇺🇦: footage of the Novofedorivka airbase on #Crimea after the Ukrainian strikes. It looks like several Russian warplanes have been completely destroyed. pic.twitter.com/8WPn4UI6pW — Thomas van Linge (@ThomasVLinge) August 9, 2022 x Russian airbase in occupied Crimea: Novofedorivka – Saky Air base attack satellite imagery via @666_mancer https://t.co/1F2QL5K9WP pic.twitter.com/PKafmyBii6 — KT "Special Intelligence Operation" (@KremlinTrolls) August 9, 2022 x This was a significant strike, it was not only showing the capabilities of the 🇺🇦 army, still effective after almost 6 months of war against the 🇷🇺 aggressor, but it also showed the thousands 🇷🇺 tourists at Crimea that the war is still going.https://t.co/VQewin6nHa 10/11 — GeoConfirmed (@GeoConfirmed) August 9, 2022 [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/8/9/2115509/-Ukrainian-Invasion-Day-168-explosions-in-Crimea Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/