(C) Common Dreams This story was originally published by Common Dreams and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Toplines: October 2024 Times/Siena Poll of Registered Voters Nationwide [1] [] Date: 2024-10-13 National: Likely electorate cross-tabs | Toplines Black voters: Likely electorate | Registered voters Hispanic voters: Likely electorate | Registered voters Florida: Likely electorate cross-tabs | Toplines Texas: Likely electorate cross-tabs | Toplines Party ID is self-identified party, without voters who lean a certain way; independents include only self-identified independents. Gender is self-reported if the respondent completed the full questionnaire; otherwise, it is based on the interviewer’s determination. If neither is available, it is as reported on the voter file. Party ID is self-identified party, without voters who lean a certain way; independents include only self-identified independents. Gender is self-reported if the respondent completed the full questionnaire; otherwise, it is based on the interviewer’s determination. If neither is available, it is as reported on the voter file. Would you be open to commenting on the issues in this survey and be interested in being contacted by a reporter? (Without combination) (If Protestant, Christian, Mormon, Greek/Russian Orthodox or some other religion) Do you consider yourself an evangelical or born-again Christian? (If Protestant, Christian, Mormon, Greek/Russian Orthodox or some other religion) Do you consider yourself an evangelical or born-again Christian? Aside from weddings and funerals, how often do you attend religious services? Would you say you attend services once a week or more often, once or twice a month, a few times a year, seldom, or would you say you never attend religious services? Do you consider yourself Catholic, Protestant, Mormon, Jewish, Muslim, some other religion, or do you have no religious affiliation? Which of the following general income categories is your total household income before taxes? [IF NEEDED: I just want to remind you that you are completely anonymous. We only use this information in aggregate form to ensure we have a representative group of people.] And just a few more questions for demographic purposes... Do you consider yourself politically liberal, moderate or conservative? [FOLLOW UP: (If liberal or conservative) Is that very or somewhat?] [VOL] National print or online news organizations, like The New York Times or The Wall Street Journal What single news source do you turn to most often? This could include a social media site or a news site. [IF NEEDED: If you had to pick just one.] (Ask of Hispanic respondents) Do you speak a language other than English at home? [FOLLOW UP IF YES: Is that Spanish or another language?] (Ask of Hispanic respondents who said they were born in the United States) How many of your parents were born in the United States? (Ask of Hispanic respondents) Were you born in the United States, on the island of Puerto Rico, or in another country? Or is your heritage from other country (Specify) (Includes multiple origins) (Ask of Hispanic respondents) What’s your family’s national origin? [READ RESPONSE OPTIONS] [If more than one: which one do you identify with most?] * in September 2022 this was worded "Regardless of how you vote today, thinking back to the times you have voted over the last decade or so, as far back as 2012, have you generally voted more for Democrats, voted more for Republicans, or has it been more of a mix?" Regardless of how you vote today, thinking back to the times you have voted over the last decade or so, have you generally voted more for Democrats or more for Republicans, or has it been more of a mix? Thinking about the times you went grocery shopping in the last year, how often, if ever, did you cut back on what you bought because of what groceries cost? [READ LIST] Has Donald Trump ever said anything that you found offensive? [FOLLOW UP: Was that recently or not recently?] Do you support or oppose deporting immigrants living in the United States illegally back to their home countries? [FOLLOW UP: Is that strongly or somewhat?] People who are offended by Donald Trump take his words too seriously Which statement comes closer to your view, even if neither is exactly right? [READ LIST] Crime is a major problem in big cities, but it’s not out of control Which comes closest to your view about crime in big cities in America, even if none are exactly right? [READ LIST] The system needs to be torn down entirely Which comes closest to your view about the political and economic system in America, even if none are exactly right? [READ LIST] I do not feel like he is talking about me (Ask of Hispanic respondents) Which of the following comes closer to your view when Donald Trump talks about problems with immigration? [READ LIST] Providing a pathway to citizenship for all undocumented immigrants currently living in the United States [IF NEEDED: Tell me whether you support or oppose the policy. FOLLOW UP: Is that strongly or somewhat?] Building a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border [IF NEEDED: Tell me whether you support or oppose the policy. FOLLOW UP: Is that strongly or somewhat?] For each of the following items, tell me whether you support or oppose the policy. (Ask of Black respondents who said there are still significant obstacles) Do you think the Republican Party has solutions to help address the obstacles that Black people face? (Ask of Black respondents who said there are still significant obstacles) Do you think the Democratic Party has solutions to help address the obstacles that Black people face? There are still significant obstacles that make it harder for Black people to get ahead The obstacles that once made it harder for Black people to get ahead are now largely gone Which statement comes closer to your view, even if neither is exactly right? [READ LIST] Thinking of the Democratic and Republican parties, would you say there is a great deal of difference in what they stand for, a fair amount of difference or hardly any difference at all? Can fix the problems facing people like me [IF NEEDED: Please tell me whether you think it describes the Democratic Party more or the Republican Party more.] Understands the problems facing people like me [IF NEEDED: Please tell me whether you think it describes the Democratic Party more or the Republican Party more.] Keeps its promises [IF NEEDED: Please tell me whether you think it describes the Democratic Party more or the Republican Party more.] * in September 2022 this was worded "Do you think 'party of the working class' describes ..." Is the party of the working class [IF NEEDED: Please tell me whether you think it describes the Democratic Party more or the Republican Party more.] As I read each of the following, please tell me whether you think it describes the Democratic Party more or the Republican Party more. We should pay less attention to problems overseas and concentrate on problems here at home It is best for the future of our country to be active in world affairs Which statement comes closer to your view, even if neither is exactly right? [READ LIST] (Ask of Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander respondents) How important is being Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander to how you think about yourself? [READ LIST] (Ask of Middle Eastern or North African respondents) How important is being Middle Eastern or North African to how you think about yourself? [READ LIST] (Ask of American Indian respondents) How important is being American Indian or Alaska Native to how you think about yourself? [READ LIST] (Ask of Asian respondents) How important is being Asian to how you think about yourself? [READ LIST] (Ask of Black respondents) How important is being Black or African American to how you think about yourself? [READ LIST] (Ask of Hispanic respondents) How important is being Hispanic or Latino to how you think about yourself? [READ LIST] (Ask of White respondents ) How important is being White to how you think about yourself? [READ LIST] Which candidate do you think would do a better job of handling the issue you think is most important? [READ LIST] What one issue is most important in deciding your vote this November? [IF NEEDED: If you had to pick just one.] Represents change [IF NEEDED: Does the characteristic or quality apply more to Kamala Harris or to Donald Trump?] (Ask only of Split A) Would help people like you [IF NEEDED: Does the characteristic or quality apply more to Kamala Harris or to Donald Trump?] Would help you personally [IF NEEDED: Does the characteristic or quality apply more to Kamala Harris or to Donald Trump?] Is fun [IF NEEDED: Does the characteristic or quality apply more to Kamala Harris or to Donald Trump?] Is a strong leader [IF NEEDED: Does the characteristic or quality apply more to Kamala Harris or to Donald Trump?] Is honest and trustworthy [IF NEEDED: Does the characteristic or quality apply more to Kamala Harris or to Donald Trump?] Cares about people like you [IF NEEDED: Does the characteristic or quality apply more to Kamala Harris or to Donald Trump?] For each of the following, does the characteristic or quality apply more to Kamala Harris or to Donald Trump? Kamala [COMMA-luh] Harris [IF NEEDED: Do you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of them?] Donald Trump [IF NEEDED: Do you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of them?] Tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of each of the following. (Excluding "I did not vote") Who did you vote for in the 2020 presidential election between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, or did you not vote? Who did you vote for in the 2020 presidential election between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, or did you not vote? (If independent, another party or not sure) And as of today, do you lean more to: [READ LIST] Do you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican, an independent or a member of another party? Are you of Hispanic origin or descent, such as Mexican, Dominican, Puerto Rican, Cuban or some other Spanish background? Note: Responses to questions after this point are reported only for respondents who completed the entire questionnaire. Would you consider yourself: [READ LIST] [IF biracial or multi racial ask: What races would that be?] What is the highest educational level that you have completed? [READ LIST] (Ask only in FL starting on September 30) If the 2024 election were held today, would you vote YES or NO on Amendment 4 that would if passed legalize abortions up to the point of fetal viability, or generally acknowledged to be the 24th week of pregnancy? (Ask only in FL) If this year’s general election for U.S. Senate were held today, which candidate would you be more likely to vote for? [READ LIST] [IF NEEDED: If you had to decide today, are you leaning toward one candidate?] (Ask only in TX) If this year’s general election for U.S. Senate were held today, which candidate would you be more likely to vote for? [READ LIST] [IF NEEDED: If you had to decide today, are you leaning toward one candidate?] (Leaners, if not supporting Trump or Harris in previous multi-candidate questions) If you had to decide between the two today, would you lean more toward: (If candidate selected, including third-party candidates) Are you definitely or probably going to vote for [CANDIDATE SELECTED]? [VOL] Not going to vote/wouldn't vote if those were the choices (Leaners, if no candidate selected in initial multi-candidate question) If you had to decide today, would you lean more toward: [READ LIST] [VOL] Not going to vote/wouldn't vote if those were the choices (Initial ask, without leaners) If the 2024 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were: [READ LIST] [IF NEEDED: If you had to decide today, are you leaning toward one candidate?] [VOL] Not going to vote/wouldn't vote if those were the choices (Combined presidential ballot, includes leaners to third-party candidates) If the 2024 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were: *In Feb 2024, options included "another candidate" and "not going to vote if those are the choices". Those are moved into "Don't know/refused" (Combined presidential ballot, includes leaners to major-party candidates) If the 2024 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were: Thinking ahead to the presidential general election, are you almost certain that you will vote, very likely to vote, somewhat likely to vote, not very likely to vote or not at all likely to vote? If you want to read more about how and why The Times/Siena Poll is conducted, you can see answers to frequently asked questions and submit your own questions here . • The margin of sampling error among likely voters is plus or minus 2.4 points for the national poll and about plus or minus five points for each state poll. In theory, this means that the results should reflect the views of the overall population most of the time, though many other challenges create additional sources of error. When the difference between two values is computed, such as a candidate’s lead in a race, the margin of error is twice as large. • To further ensure that the results reflect the entire voting population, not just those willing to take a poll, we give more weight to respondents from demographic groups that are underrepresented among survey respondents, like people without a college degree. You can see more information about the characteristics of our respondents and the weighted sample at the bottom of the page, under “Composition of the Sample.” • Voters are selected for the survey from a list of registered voters. The list contains information on the demographic characteristics of every registered voter, allowing us to make sure we reach the right number of voters of each party, race and region. For these polls, interviewers placed nearly 365,000 calls to nearly 150,000 voters. • Times/Siena polls are conducted by telephone, using live interviewers, in both English and Spanish. Overall, about 98 percent of respondents were contacted on a cellphone for these polls. • The poll also uses a polling technique to speak with more Black and Hispanic voters than the typical national poll. The technique, known as an oversample, enables more confident analysis of subgroups, such as Black men or younger Black voters. This method does not affect the top-level results of the final poll; in the overall poll of the nation, Black and Hispanic respondents are weighted down so that they represent the proper share of all voters and so their views are not overrepresented in the survey results. • The national poll includes separate polls of 622 voters in Florida and 617 voters in Texas. The weight given to each of these groups in the national poll has been adjusted so that the overall results are reflective of the entire country. Here are the key things to know about these polls: Full Methodology The New York Times/Siena College nationwide poll of 3,385 likely voters was conducted in English and Spanish on cellular and landline telephones from Sept. 29 to Oct. 6, 2024. The national poll includes separate polls of 622 voters in Florida and 617 voters in Texas. It uses a statistical technique known as an oversample to survey 589 Black voters, including 548 voters who identify as Black alone and 41 voters who identify as Black in combination with another race or ethnicity, and 902 voters of Hispanic descent, including 704 voters who identify as Hispanic or Latino alone and 198 voters who identify as Hispanic in combination. The weight given to each of these groups in the national poll has been adjusted so that the overall results are reflective of the entire country. Nationally, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2.4 percentage points for the likely electorate and plus or minus 2.2 percentage points among registered voters. In Florida and Texas, the margin of sampling error among the likely electorate is 4.8 percentage points. Among the sample of Hispanic voters, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 4.5 points for the likely electorate and plus or minus 4.1 points among registered voters. For the Black sample, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 5.6 points for the likely electorate and plus or minus 5.4 points for registered voters. Sample The survey is a response-rate-adjusted stratified sample of registered voters taken from the voter file maintained by L2, a nonpartisan voter-file vendor, and supplemented with additional voter-file-matched cellular telephone numbers from Marketing Systems Group. The sample was selected by The New York Times in multiple steps to account for differential telephone coverage, nonresponse and significant variation in the productivity of telephone numbers by state. To adjust for noncoverage bias, the L2 voter file for each state was stratified by statehouse district, party, race, gender, marital status, household size, turnout history, age and homeownership. The proportion of registrants with a telephone number and the mean expected response rate were calculated for each stratum. The mean expected response rate was based on a model of unit nonresponse in prior Times/Siena surveys. The initial selection weight was equal to the reciprocal of a stratum’s mean telephone coverage and modeled response rate. For respondents with multiple telephone numbers on the L2 file, or with differing numbers from L2 and Marketing Systems Group, the number with the highest modeled response rate was selected. Fielding The sample was stratified according to political party, race and region. Marketing Systems Group screened the sample to ensure that the cellular telephone numbers were active, and the Siena College Research Institute fielded the poll, with additional fieldwork by ReconMR, the Public Opinion Research Laboratory at the University of North Florida, the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College, the Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research at Winthrop University in South Carolina and the Survey Center at University of New Hampshire. Interviewers asked for the person named on the voter file and ended the interview if the intended respondent was not available. Overall, 98 percent of respondents were reached on a cellular telephone. The questions were translated into Spanish by ReconMR. Bilingual interviewers began the interview in English and were instructed to follow the lead of the respondent in determining whether to conduct the survey in English or Spanish. Monolingual Spanish-speaking respondents who were initially contacted by English-speaking interviewers were recontacted by Spanish-speaking interviewers. Overall, 18 percent of interviews among respondents who self-reported as Hispanic alone were conducted in Spanish; among the weighted sample, the share is 19 percent among registered voters. An interview was determined to be complete for the purposes of inclusion in the questions about whom the respondent would vote for if the respondent did not drop out of the survey after being asked the two self-reported variables used in weighting — age and education — and answered at least one of the questions about age, education or presidential-election candidate preference. Weighting (registered voters) The survey was weighted by The Times using the survey package in R in multiple steps. First, the sample was adjusted for unequal probability of selection by stratum. Second, the Black, Hispanic and non-Black-or-Hispanic samples for Florida, Texas and the rest of the United States were weighted to match voter-file-based parameters for the characteristics of registered voters. The following targets were used: • Party (party registration if available in the state; if not, then classification based on participation in partisan primaries if available in the state; if not, then classification based on a model of vote choice in prior Times/Siena polls) by race. The national Hispanic sample was weighted to party by a classification of the strength of the respondent’s partisanship based on a model of vote choice in prior Times/Siena polls • Age (self-reported age, or voter-file age if the respondent refused) by gender (L2 data) • Education (four categories of self-reported education level, weighted to match NYT-based targets derived from Times/Siena polls, census data and the L2 voter file) • Race or ethnicity (L2 model), if part of the non-Black-or-Hispanic sample in Texas and Florida • White/nonwhite race by college or noncollege educational attainment (L2 model of race weighted to match NYT-based targets for self-reported education), if part of the non-Black-or-Hispanic sample • Marital status (L2 model) • Homeownership (L2 model) • Turnout history (NYT classifications based on L2 data) • Method of voting in the 2020 elections (NYT classifications based on L2 data) • State region (NYT classifications), in Florida and Texas • National region (NYT classifications), outside Florida and Texas • Metropolitan status (2013 NCHS Urban-Rural Classification Scheme for Counties), if part of the national sample • History of voting in the 2020 presidential primary (L2 data), if part of the national non-Black-or-Hispanic sample • Census block group density (A.C.S. 5-Year Census Block Group data), if part of the Florida or Texas non-Black-or-Hispanic sample • Census block group density of Black residents (A.C.S. 5-Year Census Block Group data), if part of the national or Florida Black sample • Census block group density of Hispanic residents (A.C.S. 5-Year Census Block Group data), if part of the national or Texas Hispanic sample • Country of origin (L2 model), if part of the national or Florida Hispanic sample Third, the sums of the weights were balanced so that each Florida and Texas represented the proper proportion of the national poll and so that the Black, Hispanic and non-Black-or-Hispanic samples represented the proper proportion of each state and the country. Finally, the sample of respondents who completed all questions in the survey was weighted identically as well as to the result for the general-election horse-race question (including voters leaning a certain way) on the full sample. Weighting (likely electorate) The survey was weighted by The Times using the R survey package in multiple steps. First, the samples were adjusted for unequal probability of selection by stratum. Second, the first-stage weight was adjusted to account for the probability that a registrant would vote in the 2024 election, based on a model of turnout in the 2020 election. Third, the sample was weighted to match targets for the composition of the likely electorate. The targets for the composition of the likely electorate were derived by aggregating the individual-level turnout estimates described in the previous step for registrants on the L2 voter file. The categories used in weighting were the same as those previously mentioned for registered voters. Fourth, the initial likely electorate weight was adjusted to incorporate self-reported intention to vote. Four-fifths of the final probability that a registrant would vote in the 2024 election was based on the registrant’s ex ante modeled turnout score, and one-fifth was based on self-reported intentions, based on prior Times/Siena polls, including a penalty to account for the tendency of survey respondents to turn out at higher rates than nonrespondents. The final likely electorate weight was equal to the modeled electorate rake weight, multiplied by the final turnout probability and divided by the ex ante modeled turnout probability. Finally, the sample of respondents who completed all questions in the survey was weighted identically as well as to the result for the general election horse-race question (including leaners) on the full sample. The margin of error accounts for the survey’s design effect, a measure of the loss of statistical power due to survey design and weighting. The design effect for the full sample is 1.97 for the nationwide likely electorate, 1.48 for the likely electorate in Florida, 1.48 for the likely electorate in Texas, 1.89 for the Black likely electorate and 1.92 for the Hispanic likely electorate. Among registered voters, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2.2 points nationwide, including a design effect of 1.78; 4.6 points in Florida, including a design effect of 1.36; plus or minus 4.5 points in Texas, including a design effect of 1.29; plus or minus 5.4 points for Black voters, including a design effect of 1.81; and plus or minus 4.1 for Hispanic voters, including a design effect of 1.57. For the sample of completed interviews, among the likely electorate nationwide, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2.6 points, including a design effect of 1.93; plus or minus 5.6 points in Florida, including a design effect of 1.64; plus or minus 5.4 points in Texas, including a design effect of 1.5; plus or minus 6.3 points among Black voters, including a design effect of 1.86; and plus or minus 5.2 points among Hispanic voters, including a design effect of 1.96. Historically, The Times/Siena Poll’s error at the 95th percentile has been plus or minus 5.1 percentage points in surveys taken over the final three weeks before an election. Real-world error includes sources of error beyond sampling error, such as nonresponse bias, coverage error, late shifts among undecided voters and error in estimating the composition of the electorate. 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