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Homicides poised to fall again in 2023, preliminary data show [1]

['Christopher Ingraham', 'More From Author', '- December']

Date: 2023-12 

Minnesota’s homicide rate is likely to fall for a second straight year in 2023, another sign that the social upheaval wrought by the COVID-19 pandemic is receding.

Preliminary data from the Bureau of Criminal Apprehension show that there were 150 homicides in the state through the end of November. If murders in December follow previous years’ trends, Minnesota will close out the year with around 165 homicides total, or a statewide rate of about 2.8 per 100,000.

The latest data bring Minnesota’s homicide rate well below the levels of previous spikes in the mid-1970s and the 1990s, though it remains elevated above the pre-pandemic baseline.

Those numbers aren’t set in stone, and a spike in end-of-year killings could change the picture somewhat. But for now it appears likely that Minnesota will follow the nationwide trend of ongoing reductions in violent crime, even as public opinion polls show most Americans — particularly Republicans — erroneously believe crime is getting worse.

Minnesota has one of the nation’s lowest overall homicide rates, according to older data from the CDC. Murder rates tend to increase as you go south, with states like Mississippi and Louisiana having rates roughly five times higher than Minnesota. Much of those differences are driven by gun laws, as states with more permissive gun policies tend to see higher rates of gun crime.

But even high-crime states are experiencing reductions in violence this year.

“Murder plummeted in the United States in 2023, likely at one of the fastest rates of decline ever recorded,” crime data analyst Jeff Asher recently wrote. “The quarterly data in particular suggests 2023 featured one of the lowest rates of violent crime in the United States in more than 50 years.”

In Minneapolis, year-to-date data show that burglary, theft, robbery, weapon violations, and carjackings are all down. The number of police calls for shots fired is down by more than 1,500, and the number of gunshot injuries decreased from 539 to 403.

Some categories, on the other hand, are flat or trending upward. Assaults and sex offenses are up slightly, while car thefts and destruction of property are up considerably.

Statewide, one subcategory of violent crime is notably not improving: mass shootings, involving four or more victims in a single incident. Those spiked in 2021 and remain at elevated levels, though they are relatively uncommon compared to other types of violent crime. In 2023 so far there have been 12 such incidents in Minnesota, according to data collected by the Gun Violence Archive.

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[1] Url: https://minnesotareformer.com/briefs/homicides-poised-to-fall-again-in-2023-preliminary-data-show/

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