Newsgroups: sci.space
Path: utzoo!henry
From: henry@utzoo.uucp (Henry Spencer)
Subject: Re: Space travel and the spirit of man
Message-ID: <1989Feb10.203043.14958@utzoo.uucp>
Organization: U of Toronto Zoology
References: <3225@vice.ICO.TEK.COM> <258@corpane.UUCP> <4239@drivax.DRI> <583@internal.Apple.COM> <665@uceng.UC.EDU> <1989Feb9.211549.19516@utzoo.uucp> <119@beaver.cs.washington.edu>
Date: Fri, 10 Feb 89 20:30:43 GMT

In article <119@beaver.cs.washington.edu> szabonj@fin.UUCP (Nick Szabo) writes:
>>The robotic and tele-operated technology we _must_ have to establish
>>and maintain a manned presence is not yet mature.
>
>The "must" is correct.  Sustained manned presence requires self-sufficiency...

Why?  Name three settlements on *Earth* that are self-sufficient.  Modern
ones, not 17th-century ones.  The ENTIRE UNITED STATES is not self-sufficient,
at least not in its "normal operating mode", as witness the concern over
strategic materials obtained from unstable areas like Africa.  (We won't
even mention the Persian Gulf... :-))

The crucial requirement for sustained manned presence is not total self-
sufficiency, but enough self-sufficiency to keep necessary trade with Earth
down to a manageable level.  Clearly a colony needs either good recycling
or local supplies for air and water, and local production of basic foods
and structural materials is at least highly desirable.  There is absolutely
no reason why a colony should be considered non-viable if it doesn't make
its own semiconductors or machine tools; most countries on Earth don't.
(The state Nick Szabo lives in probably doesn't, never mind the city he 
lives in.)  Unless a colony finds something fabulously valuable, it's going
to have a serious trade deficit for a long time... but in case you haven't
noticed, the United States has one of those too.

If we assume that there is a useful amount of ice in lunar polar craters --
not ridiculous but not at all certain either -- it clearly is possible to
start a lunar colony with today's technology.  Before Challenger, in fact,
there was a proposal to do exactly that in 1992, as a commemoration of the
500th anniversary of Columbus.  It would have been within reach of (major)
private funding, given extensive reliance on donated labor and materials...
but the reliance on six donated shuttle flights killed it.  The people
proposing it were pros and had done their homework; they were not mindless
space cadets.  It would have involved risks, but could have worked.

Teleoperation and robotics would certainly *help*, but they aren't *needed*
for space colonies.
-- 
The Earth is our mother;       |     Henry Spencer at U of Toronto Zoology
our nine months are up.        | uunet!attcan!utzoo!henry henry@zoo.toronto.edu
