[HN Gopher] I let ChatGPT analyze a decade of my Apple Watch dat...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       I let ChatGPT analyze a decade of my Apple Watch data, then I
       called my doctor
        
       Author : zdw
       Score  : 221 points
       Date   : 2026-01-26 22:29 UTC (1 days ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.msn.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.msn.com)
        
       | freedomben wrote:
       | > _Despite having access to my weight, blood pressure and
       | cholesterol, ChatGPT based much of its negative assessment on an
       | Apple Watch measurement known as VO2 max, the maximum amount of
       | oxygen your body can consume during exercise. Apple says it
       | collects an "estimate" of VO2 max, but the real thing requires a
       | treadmill and a mask. Apple says its cardio fitness measures have
       | been validated, but independent researchers have found those
       | estimates can run low -- by an average of 13 percent._
       | 
       | There's plenty of blame to go around for everyone, but at least
       | for some of it (such as the above) I think the blame more rests
       | on Apple for falsely representing the quality of their product
       | (and TFA seems pretty clearly to be blasting OpenAI for this, not
       | others like Apple).
       | 
       | What would you expect the behavior of the AI to be? Should it
       | always assume bad data or potentially bad data? If so, that seems
       | like it would defeat the point of having data at all as you could
       | never draw any conclusions from it. Even disregarding statistical
       | outliers, it's not at all clear what part of the data is "good"
       | vs "unrealiable" especially when the company that _collected_
       | that data claims that it 's good data.
        
         | hmokiguess wrote:
         | I have been sitting and waiting for the day these trackers get
         | exposed as just another health fad that is optimized to deliver
         | shareholder value and not serious enough for medical grade
         | applications
        
           | NoPicklez wrote:
           | I don't see how they are considered a health fad, they're
           | extremely useful and accurate enough. There are plenty of
           | studies and real world data showing Garmin VO2Max readings
           | being accurate to 1-2 points different to a real world test.
           | 
           | There is this constant debate about how accurately VO2max is
           | measured and its highly dependent on actually doing exercise
           | to determine your VO2max using your watch. But yes if you
           | want a lab/medically precise measure you need to do it a test
           | that measures your actual oxygen uptake.
        
         | aeonfox wrote:
         | > I think the blame more rests on Apple for falsely
         | representing the quality of their product
         | 
         | There was plenty of other concerning stuff in that article. And
         | from a quick read it wasn't suggested or implied the VO2 max
         | issue was the deciding factor for the original F score the
         | author received. The article did suggest many times over the
         | ChatGPT is really not equipped for the task of health
         | diagnosis.
         | 
         | > There was another problem I discovered over time: When I
         | tried asking the same heart longevity-grade question again,
         | suddenly my score went up to a C. I asked again and again,
         | watching the score swing between an F and a B.
        
           | brandonb wrote:
           | The lack of self-consistency does seem like a sign of a
           | deeper issue with reliability. In most fields of machine
           | learning robustness to noise is something you need to "bake
           | in" (often through data augmentation using knowledge of the
           | domain) rather than get for free in training.
        
           | freedomben wrote:
           | > _There was plenty of other concerning stuff in that
           | article._
           | 
           | Yeah for sure, I probably didn't make it clear enough but I
           | do fault OpenAI for this as much as or maybe more than Apple.
           | I didn't think that needed to be stressed since the article
           | is already blasting them for it and I don't disagree with
           | most of that criticism of OpenAI.
        
         | brandonb wrote:
         | FWIW, Apple has published validation data showing the Apple
         | Watch's estimate is within 1.2 ml/kg/min of a lab-measured
         | Vo2Max.
         | 
         | Behind the scenes, it's using a pretty cool algorithm that
         | combines deep learning with physiological ODEs:
         | https://www.empirical.health/blog/how-apple-watch-cardio-fit...
        
           | ignoramous wrote:
           | The paper itself: https://www.apple.com/healthcare/docs/site/
           | Using_Apple_Watch...
           | 
           | Seems like Apple's 95% accuracy estimate for VO2 max holds
           | up.                 Thirty participants wore an Apple Watch
           | for 5-10 days to generate a VO2 max estimate. Subsequently,
           | they underwent a maximal exercise treadmill test in
           | accordance with the modified Astrand protocol. The agreement
           | between measurements from Apple Watch and indirect
           | calorimetry was assessed using Bland-Altman analysis, mean
           | absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean absolute error
           | (MAE).            Overall, Apple Watch underestimated VO2
           | max, with a mean difference of 6.07 mL/kg/min (95% CI
           | 3.77-8.38). Limits of agreement indicated variability between
           | measurement methods (lower -6.11 mL/kg/min; upper 18.26
           | mL/kg/min). MAPE was calculated as 13.31% (95% CI
           | 10.01-16.61), and MAE was 6.92 mL/kg/min (95% CI 4.89-8.94).
           | These findings indicate that Apple Watch VO2 max estimates
           | require further refinement prior to clinical implementation.
           | However, further consideration of Apple Watch as an
           | alternative to conventional VO2 max prediction from
           | submaximal exercise is warranted, given its practical
           | utility.
           | 
           | https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12080799/
        
             | mr_toad wrote:
             | That's saying that they're 95% confident that the mean
             | measurement is lower than the treadmill estimate, not that
             | the watch is 95% accurate. In other words they're confident
             | that the watch underestimates VO2 max.
        
           | itchyouch wrote:
           | The trick with the vo2 max measurement on the apple watch
           | though is that the person can not waste any time during their
           | outdoor walk and needs to maintain a brisk pace.
           | 
           | Then there's confounders like altitude, elevation gain that
           | can sully the numbers.
           | 
           | It can be pretty great, but it needs a bit of control in
           | order to get a proper reading.
        
         | miltonlost wrote:
         | > What would you expect the behavior of the AI to be? Should it
         | always assume bad data or potentially bad data? If so, that
         | seems like it would defeat the point of having data at all as
         | you could never draw any conclusions from it.
         | 
         | Well, I would expect the AI to provide the same response as a
         | real doctor did from the same information. Which the article
         | went over the doctors were able to.
         | 
         | I also would expect the AI to provide the same answer every
         | time to the same data unlike what it did (from F to B over
         | multiple attempts in the article)
         | 
         | OpenAI is entirely to blame here when they are putting out
         | faulty products, (hallucinations even on accurate data are a
         | fault of them).
        
           | jdub wrote:
           | Why do you have those expectations?
        
         | AndrewKemendo wrote:
         | > Should it always assume bad data or potentially bad data? If
         | so, that seems like it would defeat the point of having data at
         | all as you could never draw any conclusions from it.
         | 
         | Yes. You, and every other reasoning system, should always
         | challenge the data and assume it's biased at a minimum.
         | 
         | This is better described as "critical thinking" in its formal
         | form.
         | 
         | You could also call it skepticism.
         | 
         | That impossibility of drawing conclusions assumes there's a
         | correct answer and is called the "problem of induction." I
         | promise you a machine is better at avoiding it than a human.
         | 
         | Many people freeze up or fail with too much data - put someone
         | with no experience in front of 500 ppl to give a speech if you
         | want to watch this live.
        
           | freedomben wrote:
           | I mostly agree with you, but I think it's important to
           | consider what you're _doing_ with the data. If we 're doing
           | rigorous science, or making life-or-death decisions on it, I
           | would 100% agree. But if we're an AI chatbot trying to offer
           | some insight, with a big disclaimer that "these results might
           | be wrong, talk to your doctor" then I think that's quite
           | overkill. The end result would be no (potential) insight at
           | all and no chance for ever improving since we'll likely never
           | get a to a point where we could fully trust the data. Not
           | even the best medical labs are always perfect.
        
         | jayd16 wrote:
         | Well if it doesn't know the quality of the data and especially
         | if it would be dangerous to guess then it should probably say
         | it doesn't have an answer.
        
           | freedomben wrote:
           | I don't disagree, but that reinforces my point above I think.
           | If AI has to assume the data is of poor quality, then there's
           | no point in even trying to analyze it. The options are
           | basically:
           | 
           | 1. Trust the source of the data to be honest about it's
           | quality
           | 
           | Or
           | 
           | 2. Distrust the source
           | 
           | Approach number 2 basically means we can never do any
           | analysis on it.
           | 
           | Personally I'd rather have a product that _might_ be wrong
           | than none at all, but that 's a personal preference.
        
       | dfajgljsldkjag wrote:
       | The author is a healthy person but the computer program still
       | gave him a failing grade of F. It is irresponsible for these
       | companies to release broken tools that can cause so much fear in
       | real people. They are treating serious medical advice like it is
       | just a video game or a toy. Real users should not be the ones
       | testing these dangerous products.
        
         | dylan604 wrote:
         | What LLM should the LLM turn to ask if what the user is asking
         | is safe for the first LLM to answer?
        
         | nomel wrote:
         | > It is irresponsible for these companies
         | 
         | I would claim that ignoring the "ChatGPT is AI and can make
         | mistakes. Check important info." text, right under the query
         | they type in client, is clearly _more_ irresponsible.
         | 
         | I think that a disclaimer like that is the most _useful_ and
         | _reasonable_ approach for AI.
         | 
         | "Here's a tool, and it's sometimes wrong." means the public can
         | have access to LLMs and AI. The alternative, that you seem to
         | be suggesting (correct me if I'm wrong), means the public can't
         | have access to an LLM until they are _near perfect_ , which
         | means the public can't ever have access to an LLM, or any AI.
         | 
         | What do you see as a reasonable approach to letting the public
         | access these imperfect models? Training? Popups/agreement after
         | every question "I understand this might be BS"? What's the
         | threshold for quality of information where it's no longer
         | considered "broken"? Is that threshold as good as or better
         | than humans/news orgs/doctors/etc?
        
           | zdragnar wrote:
           | > Popups/agreement after every question "I understand this
           | might be BS"?
           | 
           | Considering the number of people who take LLM responses as
           | authoritative Truth, that wouldn't be the worst thing in the
           | world.
        
           | ytoawwhra92 wrote:
           | Why are you assuming that the general public ought to have
           | access to imperfect tools?
           | 
           | I live in a place where getting a blood test requires a
           | referral from a doctor, who is also required to discuss the
           | results with you.
        
             | nomel wrote:
             | > Why are you assuming that the general public ought to
             | have access to imperfect tools?
             | 
             | Could you tell me which source of information do you see as
             | "perfect" (or acceptable) that you see as a good example of
             | a threshold for what you think the public should and should
             | not have access to?
             | 
             | Also, what if a tool still provides value to the user, in
             | some contexts, but not to others, in different contexts
             | (for example, using the tool wrong)?
             | 
             | For the "tool" perspective, I've personal never seen a
             | perfect tool. Do you have an example?
             | 
             | > I live in a place where getting a blood test requires a
             | referral from a doctor, who is also required to discuss the
             | results with you.
             | 
             | I don't see how this is relevant. In the above article, the
             | user went to their doctor for advice and a referral. But,
             | in the US (and, many European countries) blood tests aren't
             | restricted, and can be had from private labs out of pocket,
             | since they're just measurements of things that exist in
             | your blood, and not allowing you to know what's inside of
             | you would be considered government overreach/privacy
             | violation. _Medical interpretations /advice from the
             | measurements_ is what's restricted, in most places.
        
               | ytoawwhra92 wrote:
               | > Could you tell me which source of information do you
               | see as "perfect" (or acceptable) that you see as a good
               | example of a threshold for what you think the public
               | should and should not have access to?
               | 
               | I know it when I see it.
               | 
               | > I don't see how this is relevant.
               | 
               | It's relevant because blood testing is an imperfect tool.
               | Laypeople lack the knowledge/experience to identify
               | imperfections and are likely to take results at face
               | value. Like the author of the article did when ChatGPT
               | gave them an F for their cardiac health.
               | 
               | > Medical interpretations/advice from the measurements is
               | what's restricted, in most places.
               | 
               | Do you agree with that restriction?
        
               | nomel wrote:
               | > I know it when I see it.
               | 
               | This isn't a reasonable answer. No action can be taken
               | and no conclusion/thought can be made from it.
               | 
               | > Do you agree with that restriction?
               | 
               | People should be able to perform and be informed about
               | their own blood measurements, and possibly bring
               | something up with their doctors outside of routine exams
               | (which they may not even be insured for in the US). I
               | think the restriction on medical advice/conclusion, that
               | results in treatment, is very good, otherwise you end up
               | with "Wow, look at these results! you'll have to buy my
               | snake oil or you'll die!".
               | 
               | I don't believe in reducing society to a level that
               | completely protects the most stupid of us.
        
               | ytoawwhra92 wrote:
               | > This isn't a reasonable answer.
               | 
               | Sure it is. The world runs on human judgement. If you
               | want me to rephrase I could say that the threshold for
               | imperfection should reflect contemporary community
               | standards, but Stewart's words are catchier.
               | 
               | > I think the restriction on medical advice/conclusion,
               | that results in treatment, is very good, otherwise you
               | end up with "Wow, look at these results! you'll have to
               | buy my snake oil or you'll die!".
               | 
               | Some people would describe this as an infringement on
               | their free speech and bodily autonomy.
               | 
               | Which is to say that I think you and I agree that people
               | in general need the government to apply some degree of
               | restriction to medicine, we just disagree about where the
               | line is.
               | 
               | But I think if I asked you to describe to me exactly
               | where the line is you'd ultimately end up at some
               | incarnation of "I know it when I see it".
               | 
               | Which is fine. Even good, I think.
               | 
               | > I don't believe in reducing society to a level that
               | completely protects the most stupid of us.
               | 
               | This seems at odds with what you said above. A non-stupid
               | person would seek multiple consistent opinions before
               | accepting medical treatment, after all.
        
               | nomel wrote:
               | > I know it when I see it.
               | 
               | What's the most complex (in an information rich way) tool
               | that you have seen?
        
             | kolinko wrote:
             | > I live in a place where getting a blood test requires a
             | referral from a doctor, who is also required to discuss the
             | results with you.
             | 
             | You're saying it like it's a good thing.
        
             | cthalupa wrote:
             | > I live in a place where getting a blood test requires a
             | referral from a doctor,
             | 
             | To me, this is horrific. I am the advocate for my own
             | health. I trust my doctor - he's a great guy. I have spoken
             | to him extensively around a variety of health matters and I
             | greatly trust his opinion.
             | 
             | But I also recognize that he has many other patients and by
             | necessity has to work within the general lines of
             | probability. There is no way for him to know every
             | confounding and contributing factor of my health, no matter
             | how diligent I am in filling out my chart.
             | 
             | I get my own bloodwork done regularly. This has let me make
             | significant changes in my life to improve health markers. I
             | can also get a much broader spectrum of tests done than the
             | standard panel. This has directly lead to productive
             | conversations with my doctor!
             | 
             | And from a more philosophical standpoint, this is about
             | understanding my own body. The source of the data is _me._
             | Why should this be gatekept behind a physician referral? I
             | find it insane to think that I could be in a position where
             | I am not allowed to find out the cholesterol serum levels
             | in my blood unless a doctor OKs it! What the fuck?
        
           | coffeefirst wrote:
           | Oh I have a plan for this.
           | 
           | Allow it to answer general questions about health, medicine
           | and science.
           | 
           | It can't practice medicine, it can only be a talking
           | encyclopedia that tells you how the heart works and how
           | certain biomarkers are used. Analyzing your specific case or
           | data is off limits.
           | 
           | And then when the author asks his question, it says it's not
           | designed to do that.
        
           | throwaway290 wrote:
           | > "ChatGPT is AI and can make mistakes. Check important
           | info."
           | 
           | Is the same thing that can be said about any human
           | 
           | > "Doctor is human and can make mistakes"
           | 
           | Therefore it's really not sufficient to make it clear that it
           | is wrong in different ways and worse than human.
        
           | anon7000 wrote:
           | The problem is that AI companies are selling, advertising,
           | and shipping AI as a tool that works most of the time for
           | what you ask it to do. That's deeply misleading.
           | 
           | The product itself is telling you in plain English that it's
           | ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN about its answer... even when you
           | challenge it and try to rebut it. And the text of the product
           | itself is much more prominent than the little asterisk "oh
           | no, it's actually lying because the LLM can never be _that_
           | certain." That's clearly not a responsible product.
           | 
           | I opened the ChatGPT app right now and there is literally
           | nothing about double checking results. It just says "ask
           | anything," in no uncertain terms, with no fine print.
           | 
           | Here's a recent ad from OpenAI: https://youtu.be/uZ_BMwB647A,
           | and I quote "Using ChatGPT allowed us to really feel like we
           | have the facts and our doctor is giving us his expertise, his
           | experience, his gut instinct" related to a severe health
           | question.
           | 
           | And another recent ad related to analyzing medical scans:
           | "What's wonderful about ChatGPT is that it can be that
           | cumulative source of information, so that we can make the
           | best choices." (https://youtu.be/rXuKh4e6gw4)
           | 
           | And yet another recent ad, where lots of users are using
           | ChatGPT to get authoritative answers to health questions.
           | They even say you can take a picture of a meal before you eat
           | and after you eat, and have it generate the amount of
           | calories you ate! Just based on the difference between the
           | pictures! How has that been tested and verified?
           | (https://youtu.be/305lqu-fmbg)
           | 
           | Now, some of the ads have users talking to their doctors,
           | which is great.
           | 
           | But they are clearly marketing ChatGPT as the tool to use if
           | you want to arrive at the truth. No asterisks. No "but
           | sometimes it's wrong and you won't be able to tell." There's
           | nothing to misunderstand about these ads: OpenAI is telling
           | you that ChatGPT is trustworthy.
           | 
           | So I reject the premise that it's the user's fault for not
           | using enough caution with these tools. OpenAI is practically
           | begging you to jump in and use it for personal, life or death
           | type decisions, and does very little to help you understand
           | when it may be wrong.
        
           | tomgp wrote:
           | The issue is that whilst the warning exists and is there
           | front and centre, the marketing around ChatGPT etc - which is
           | absolutely deafening in volume and enthusiasm - is that
           | they're PHD level experts and can do anything.
           | 
           | This marketing obscures what the software is _actually_ good
           | at and gives users a poor mental model of what's going on
           | under the hood. Dumping years worth of un-differentiated
           | health data into a generic chatGPT chat window seems like a
           | fundamental misunderstanding of the strengths of large
           | language models.
           | 
           | A reasonable approach would be to try to explain what kind of
           | tasks these models do well at and what kind of situations
           | they behave poorly in.
        
         | elzbardico wrote:
         | Well, what we could expect? It is a fucking Large Language
         | Model. You're feeding it a very long multi-variable time
         | series, it can't make any sense of it, but it is going to
         | generate text.
         | 
         | If you are lucky, maybe it was finetuned to see a long comma-
         | delimited sequence of values as a table and then emit a series
         | of tool calls to generate some deterministic code to calculate
         | a set of descriptive statistics that then will be close in the
         | latent space to some hopefully current medical literature, and
         | it will generate some things that makes sense and it is not
         | absurdly wrong.
         | 
         | It is a fucking LLM, it is not 2001's HAL.
        
         | eleveriven wrote:
         | And real users shouldn't be the ones discovering these edge
         | cases through fear
        
       | brandonb wrote:
       | We trained a foundation model specifically for wearable data:
       | https://www.empirical.health/blog/wearable-foundation-model-...
       | 
       | The basic idea was to adapt JEPA (Yann LeCun's Joint-Embedding
       | Predictive Architecture) to multivariate time series, in order to
       | learn a latent space of human health from purely unlabeled data.
       | Then, we tested the model using supervised fine tuning and
       | evaluation on on a bunch of downstream tasks, such as predicting
       | a diagnosis of hypertension (~87% accuracy). In theory, this
       | model could be also aligned to the latent space of an LLM--
       | similar to how CLIP aligns a vision model to an LLM.
       | 
       | IMO, this shows that accuracy in consumer health will require
       | specialized models alongside standard LLMs.
        
       | creatonez wrote:
       | ChatGPT Health is a completely wreckless and dangerous product,
       | they should be sued into oblivion for even naming it "health".
        
         | orionsbelt wrote:
         | ChatGPT has done more for my health than any doctor. Truly.
        
           | haldujai wrote:
           | How so?
        
             | theshrike79 wrote:
             | ChatGPT will actually look at your whole medical history,
             | listen to you, think and check multiple different options
             | before making a decision. You can spend hours chatting with
             | it back and forth.
             | 
             | An average human doctor has maybe 15 minutes allotted to
             | getting to know you, analyse and determine a course of
             | action. Which is usually "take some ibuprofen and let's see
             | if it goes away". Then you go again in two weeks with the
             | same thing, it's a different doctor and the context has
             | been reset unless you do an info dump from the previous
             | visits and try not to forget anything.
             | 
             | And if you infodump too much or use actual medical
             | diagnosis terms, the Dr gets defensive because you're
             | stepping on THEIR area of expertise and will start pushing
             | back even from the obvious just because they can.
        
               | eur0pa wrote:
               | A LLM neither "listens" nor "thinks"
        
               | theshrike79 wrote:
               | For the sake of fluid writing, I did use anthropomorphic
               | verbs.
               | 
               | What would you prefer instead?
        
               | creatonez wrote:
               | > has maybe 15 minutes allotted to getting to know you
               | [...] Then you go again in two weeks with the same thing,
               | it's a different doctor and the context has been reset
               | 
               | This is not how doctors work in most of the world. Not
               | having an actual primary care physician that is able to
               | keep track of each patient over multiple years means they
               | are skipping out on one of their most important duties.
               | You should advocate for a better standard of care rather
               | than resorting to hallucinating chatbots.
        
               | theshrike79 wrote:
               | All of the country of Finland works like that.
               | 
               | Nobody sees the same doctor twice except in very rare
               | cases - usually when the doctor is a specialist with no
               | alternative
        
       | CqtGLRGcukpy wrote:
       | Original article can be read at
       | https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2026/01/26/chatgpt....
       | 
       | Paywall-free version at https://archive.ph/k4Rxt
        
       | maxdo wrote:
       | Typical Western coverage: "How dare they call me unhealthy." In
       | reality, the doctor said it needs further investigation and that
       | some data isn't great. They didn't say "unhealthy"; they said
       | "needs more investigation." What's wrong with that? Is the real
       | issue just a bruised Western ego?
        
         | smileysteve wrote:
         | Alt; typical western coverage. Has completely ignored other
         | journalists publishing of the plight fitness bands have caused
         | in doctors "am I getting a cold, my watch/ring says I'm getting
         | a cold, give me antibiotics now"
         | 
         | Or how vo2 max is hard to measure, or how not wearing a
         | wearable or wearing it loose changes results, to, I gave an llm
         | a range to rate without really giving it context of what I want
         | the range to really represent or the methods of gathering data.
         | 
         | Tldr; author bought everything, read nothing, complained to an
         | expensive professional, and now hopes that we read his article.
        
       | wawayanda wrote:
       | A year or so ago, I fed my wife's blood work results into chatgpt
       | and it came back with a terrifying diagnosis. Even after a lot of
       | back and forth it stuck to its guns. We went to a specialist who
       | performed some additional tests and explained that the condition
       | cannot be diagnosed with just the original blood work and said
       | that she did not have the condition. The whole thing was a
       | borderline traumatic ordeal that I'm still pretty pissed about.
        
         | daveguy wrote:
         | Please keep telling your story. This is the kind of shit that
         | medical science has been dealing with for at least a century.
         | When evaluating testing procedures false positives can have
         | serious consequences. A test that's positive every time will
         | catch every single true positive, but it's also worthless.
         | These LLMs don't have a goddamn clue about it. There should be
         | consequences for these garbage fires giving medical advice.
        
           | maerF0x0 wrote:
           | Part of the issue is taking it's output as conclusion rather
           | than as a signal / lead.
           | 
           | I would never let an LLM make an amputate or not decision,
           | but it could convince me to go talk with an expert who sees
           | me in person and takes a holistic view.
        
         | irjustin wrote:
         | Isn't it two sides to the same coin?
         | 
         | You should be happy about it that it's not the thing
         | specifically when the signs pointed towards it being "the
         | thing"?
        
           | themafia wrote:
           | You are _absolutely_ going to die in the next 30 minutes.
           | 
           | When it doesn't happen will you still be happy?
        
             | irjustin wrote:
             | How is this apples-apples at all?
             | 
             | But to answer directly... yes? yes, I am.
             | 
             | [edit]
             | 
             | A bit it more real. My blood pressure monitor says my bp is
             | 200/160. Chat says you're dead get yourself to a hospital.
             | 
             | Get to the hospital and says oh your bp monitor is wrong.
             | 
             | I'm happy? I would say that I am. Sure I'm annoyed at my
             | machine, but way happier it's wrong than right.
        
               | vineyardmike wrote:
               | This is another example of why its frustrating still.
               | 
               | "Yes I'm happy I'm not dying" ignores that "go to the
               | hospital [and waste a day, maybe some financial cost]"
               | because a machine was wrong. This is still pretty
               | inconvenient because a machine wasn't
               | accurate/calibrated/engineered weak. Not dying is good,
               | but the emotions and fear for a period of time is still
               | bad.
        
               | irjustin wrote:
               | Yeah I guess I just don't see eye-to-eye on this.
               | 
               | I 100% understand those frustrations. That the
               | "detectors" should've been more accurate, or the fears,
               | battery of tests, and costs associated of time and money.
               | But, if you have the means to find out something that
               | could have been extremely concerning is actually "nothing
               | wrong" - isn't that worth it?
               | 
               | My friend is 45, had bloody stool -> colonoscopy ->
               | polyps removed -> benign. Isn't that way better than
               | colon cancer?
               | 
               | Maybe it's a glass half-empty-full thing.
        
             | nprateem wrote:
             | Depends if I'm now broke from blowing it all on crack and
             | hookers.
        
         | SchemaLoad wrote:
         | I asked a doctor friend why it seems common for healthcare
         | workers to keep the results sheets to themself and just give
         | you a good/bad summary. He told me that the average person
         | can't properly understand the data and will freak themselves
         | out over nothing.
        
           | smt88 wrote:
           | I'm in the US and have never experienced anyone keeping
           | results to themselves.
           | 
           | In fact, I can now easily access even my doctor's appointment
           | notes. I have my entire chart unless my doctor specifically
           | writes private notes.
        
         | fn-mote wrote:
         | > I fed my wife's blood work results into chatgpt and it came
         | back with a terrifying diagnosis
         | 
         | I don't get it... a doctor ordered the blood work, right? And
         | surely they did not have this opinion or you would have been
         | sent to a specialist right away. In this case, the GP who
         | ordered the blood work was the gatekeeper. Shouldn't they have
         | been the person to deal with this inquiry in the first place?
         | 
         | I would be a lot more negative about "the medical
         | establishment" if they had been the ones who put you through
         | the trauma. It sounds like this story is putting yourself
         | through trauma by believing "Dr. GPT" instead of consulting a
         | real doctor.
         | 
         | I will take it as a cautionary tale, and remember it next time
         | I feed all of my test results into an LLM.
        
           | vineyardmike wrote:
           | You don't need a doctor to order bloodwork. I get a full
           | panel done yearly, just to establish a baseline and trend. I
           | try not to overanalyze it, and just keep it around for a
           | professional in case some real issue arises in the future.
        
             | jbverschoor wrote:
             | In some countries you do. The Netherlands for example
        
           | kolinko wrote:
           | At least in Poland, I can almost always see my results before
           | my doctor does - I get a notification that the labwork is
           | ready and I can view results online.
           | 
           | Also, the regular bloodwork is around $50-$100 (for
           | noninsured or without a prescription), so many people just do
           | this out of pocket once in a while and only bring to doctor
           | if anything looks suspicious.
           | 
           | Finally, there is EU regulation about data that applies to
           | medical field as well - you always have the right to view all
           | the data that any company has stored about you. Gatekeeping
           | is forbidden by law.
        
         | orionsbelt wrote:
         | > "A year or so ago"
         | 
         | What model?
         | 
         | Care to share the conversation? Or try again and see how the
         | latest model does?
        
         | themafia wrote:
         | > it stuck to its guns
         | 
         | It gave you a probabilistic output. There were no guns and
         | nothing to stick to. If you had disrupted the context with
         | enough countervailing opinion it would have "relented" simply
         | because the conversational probabilities changed.
        
           | nprateem wrote:
           | It's amazing this still needs to be said, especially here
        
             | coffeefirst wrote:
             | Here, sure.
             | 
             | For the general public, these tools have been advertised
             | this way.
             | 
             | So if a good subset of HN still gets fooled, the layperson
             | is screwed.
        
               | gizajob wrote:
               | Hmm or the layperson wouldn't be "smart" enough to think
               | that ChatGPT could give useful answers to complex health
               | questions.
        
           | tstrimple wrote:
           | I was amused but not impressed when I was able to convince
           | Claude Code that it was useless and absolutely not a service
           | worth paying for. It literally apologized and recommended I
           | ask for a refund. I mean, I still get lots of value from CC.
           | Just that it's easy to push them into whatever corner you
           | want.
        
         | greenknight wrote:
         | On the flip side, i had some pain in my chest... RUQ (right
         | upper quadrant for those medical folk).
         | 
         | On the way to the hospital, ChatGPT was pretty confident it was
         | a issue with my gallbladder due to me having a fatty meal for
         | lunch (but it was delicious).
         | 
         | After an extended wait time to be seen, they didnt ask about
         | anything like that, and at the end they were like anything else
         | to add, added it in about ChatGPT / Gallbladder... discharged 5
         | minutes later with suspicion of Gallbladder as they couldnt do
         | anything that night.
         | 
         | Over the next few weeks, got test after test after test, to try
         | and figure out whats going on. MRI. CT. Ultrasound etc.etc.
         | they all came back negative for the gallbladder.
         | 
         | ChatGPT was persistant. It said to get a HIDA scan, a more
         | specialised scan. My GP was a bit reluctant but agreed. Got it,
         | and was diagnosed with a hyperkinetic gallbladder. It is still
         | unrecognised as an issue, but mostly accepted. So much so my
         | surgeon initally said that it wasnt a thing (then after doing
         | research about it, says it is a thing)... and a
         | gastroentologist also said it wasnt a thing.
         | 
         | Had it taken out a few weeks ago, and it was chroically
         | inflammed. Which means the removal was the correct path to go
         | down.
         | 
         | It just sucks that your wife was on the other end of things.
        
           | tharkun__ wrote:
           | This reminds me of another recent comment in some other post,
           | about doctors not diagnosing "hard to diagnose" things.
           | 
           | There are probably ("good") reasons for this. But your own
           | persistence, and today the help of AI, can potentially help
           | you. The problem with it is the same problem as previously:
           | "charlatans". Just that today the charlatan and the savior
           | are both one and the same: The AI.
           | 
           | I do recognize that most people probably can't tell one from
           | the other. In both cases ;)
           | 
           | You'll find this in my post history a few times now but
           | essentially: I was lethargic all the time, got migraine type
           | headaches "randomly" a lot. Having the feeling I'd need to
           | puke. One time I had to stop driving as it just got so bad. I
           | suddenly was no longer able to tolerate alcohol either.
           | 
           | I went to multiple doctors, was sent to specialists, who all
           | told me that they could maaaaaybe do test XYX but
           | essentially: It wasn't a thing, I was crazy.
           | 
           | Through a lot of online research I "figured out" (and that's
           | an over-statement) that it was something about the gut
           | microbiome. Something to do with histamine. I tried a bunch
           | of things, like I suspected it might be DAO (Di-Amino-
           | Oxidase) insufficiency. I tried a bunch of probiotics, both
           | the "heals all your stuff" and "you need to take a single
           | strain or it won't work" type stuff. Including "just take
           | Actimel". Actimel _gave me headaches_! Turns out one of the
           | (prominent) strains in there makes histamine. Guess what,
           | Alcohol, especially some, has histamines and your  "hangover"
           | is also essentially histamines (made worse by the
           | dehydration). And guess what else, some foods, especially
           | some I love, contain or break down into histamines.
           | 
           | So I figured that _somehow_ it 's all about histamines and
           | how my _current_ gut microbiome does not deal well with
           | excess histamines (through whichever source). None of the
           | doctors I went to believed this to be a  "thing" nor did they
           | want to do anything about it. Then I found a pro-biotic that
           | actually helped. If you really want to check what I am
           | taking, check the history. I'm not a marketing machine. What
           | I do believe is that one particular bacterium helped, because
           | it's the one thing that wasn't in any of the other ones I
           | took: Bacillus subtilis.
           | 
           | A soil based bacterium, which in the olden times, you'd have
           | gotten from slightly not well enough cleaned cabbage or
           | whatever vegetable du jour you were eating. Essentially: if
           | your toddler stuffs his face with a handful of dirt, that's
           | one thing they'd be getting and it's for the better! I'm
           | saying this, because the rest of the formulation was
           | essentially the same as the others I tried.
           | 
           | I took three pills per day, breakfast, lunch and dinner. I
           | felt like _shit_ for two weeks, even getting headaches again.
           | I stuck with it. After about two weeks I started feeling
           | better. I think that 's when my gut microbiome got "turned
           | around". I was no longer lethargic and I could eat blue
           | cheese and lasagna three days in a row with two glasses of
           | red wine and not get a headache any longer! Those are all
           | foods that contain or make lots of histamine. I still take
           | one per day and I have no more issues.
           | 
           | But you gotta get to this, somehow, through all of the
           | _bullshit_ people that try to sell you their  "miracle cure"
           | stuff. And it's just as hard as trying to suss out where the
           | AI is bullshitting you.
           | 
           | There was exactly a single doctor in my life, who I would
           | consider good in that regard. I had already figured the above
           | one out by that time but I was doing keto and it got _all_ of
           | my blood markers, except for cholesterol into normal again.
           | She literally  "googled" with me about keto a few times, did
           | a blood test to confirm that I was in ketosis and in general
           | was just awesome about this. She was notoriously difficult to
           | book and later than any doctor for schedules appointments,
           | but she took her time and even that would not really ever
           | have been enough to suss out the stuff that I figured out
           | through research myself if you ask me. While doctors are the
           | "half gods in white", I think there's just way too much stuff
           | and way too little time for them. It's like: All the bugs at
           | _your_ place of work. Now imagine you had exactly one doctor
           | across a multitude of companies. Of course they only figure
           | out the  "common" ones ...
        
             | xenonite wrote:
             | Interesting to read, thank you very much. Are you still
             | eating ketogenic? The bacillus subtilis seems to metabolize
             | glucose, so are yours still alive? And did you try other
             | probiotica beforehand? I am having HIT and eating a mostly
             | carnivore diet with mostly fresh/unfermented meat.
        
               | tharkun__ wrote:
               | I no longer do keto no. I also started keto _after_ I had
               | gotten better already from the probiotics but not much. I
               | 'm not sure where you read about that subtilis can only
               | live off of glucose. I'm having a hard time finding
               | primary sources that actually talk about this but handily
               | Google's "AI mode" also "answered" my search query and it
               | does state it _primarily_ thrives on glucose and sugars
               | but can also break down and live off of proteins and
               | fats.
               | 
               | FWIW, as I understand it, many probiotics aren't going to
               | colonize on their own and "stick around" for a prolonged
               | period of time when you stop taking them, even under good
               | circumstances but you can't quote me on that so to speak.
               | And in the past we would've gotten many of them through
               | one way or another through our diet as well, just not
               | through a probiotic but naturally.
               | 
               | I tried multiple probiotics. Both blends of multiple
               | types as well as things like "Saccharomyces
               | Boulardii"-only preparation. I don't recall all the exact
               | ones I tried though.
        
             | tstrimple wrote:
             | It's horses not zebras until it's actually a zebra and your
             | life depends on it. I think those sorts of guidelines are
             | useful in the general case. But many medical issues quickly
             | move beyond the general case and need closer examination.
             | Not sure how you do that effectively without wasting tons
             | of money on folks with indigestion.
        
             | steveBK123 wrote:
             | One challenge that may sound obvious.. is that super rare
             | stuff gets seen super rarely, even by specalists.
             | 
             | In practice it means you often have to escalate from GP to
             | local specialist to even more narrow specialist all the way
             | to one of the regional big city specialist that almost
             | exclusively get the weird cases.
             | 
             | This is because every hop is an increasingly narrow area of
             | speciality.
             | 
             | Instead of just "cancer doctor" its the "GI cancer doctor"
             | then its "GI cancer doctor of this particular organ" then
             | its "an entire department of cancer doctors who work
             | exclusively on this organ who will review the case
             | together", etc.
        
           | rubatuga wrote:
           | If it was inflamed would your GGT level be high?
        
           | tonyhart7 wrote:
           | after reading your comment, my perception is mixed
        
         | terribleperson wrote:
         | Do you have a custom prompt/personality set? What is it?
        
           | ltbarcly3 wrote:
           | Yea, if only he had said "make sure you are always honest"
           | first!
        
         | fouc wrote:
         | > it stuck to its guns
         | 
         | Everyone that encounters this needs to do a clean/fresh prompt
         | with memory disabled to really know if the LLM is going to
         | consistently come to the same conclusion or not.
        
         | jesterson wrote:
         | Never ceases to surpise me why people taking word salad output
         | so seriously.
         | 
         | And probably the same people laugh at ancient folks carefully
         | listening to shamans.
        
         | bigbuppo wrote:
         | Why not just ask WebMD?
        
         | worldsavior wrote:
         | I think it's your problem you got stressed from a probabilistic
         | machine answering with what you want to hear.
        
         | lugu wrote:
         | I am sorry I have to say so, but the value of LLM is their
         | ability to reason based on their context. Don't use them as
         | smart wikipedia (without context). To your use case, provide
         | them with different textbook and practice handbook and with the
         | medical history of the person. Then ask your question in a
         | neutral way. Then ask it to verify their claim in another
         | session and provide references.
         | 
         | It is so unfortunate that a general chatbot designed to answer
         | anything was the first use case pushed. I get it when people
         | are pissed.
        
         | gizajob wrote:
         | You're pissed about your own stupidity? In asking for deep
         | knowledge and medical advice from a Markov chain?
        
         | eleveriven wrote:
         | Stories like yours are why I'm skeptical of these "health
         | insight" products as currently shipped. Visualization,
         | explanation, question-generation - great. Acting like an
         | interpreter of incomplete medical data without a strong refusal
         | mode is genuinely dangerous
        
         | filoeleven wrote:
         | Gotta love the replies to this. At least more of the botheads
         | are now acting like they're trying to ask helpful questions
         | instead of just flat out saying "you're using it wrong."
        
         | josefresco wrote:
         | I fed about 4ish years of blood tests into an AI and after some
         | back and forth it identified a possible issue that might signal
         | recovery. I sheepishly brought it up with my doc, who actually
         | said it _might be_ worth looking into. Nothing earth
         | shattering, just another opinion.
        
         | mrguyorama wrote:
         | >The whole thing was a borderline traumatic ordeal that I'm
         | still pretty pissed about.
         | 
         | Why did you do the thing people calmly explained you should not
         | do? Why are you pissed about experiencing the obvious and known
         | outcome?
         | 
         | In medicine, even a test with "Worrying" results is rarely an
         | actual condition requiring treatment. One reason doctors are so
         | bad at long tail conditions is that they have been trained,
         | both by education and literal direct experience, that chasing
         | down test results without any symptoms is a reliable way to
         | waste money, time, and emotions.
         | 
         | It's a classic statistics 101 topic to look at screening tests
         | and notice that the majority of "positive" outcomes are _false_
         | positives.
        
         | ltbarcly3 wrote:
         | It's interesting because presumably you were too ashamed to
         | tell the doctor "we pasted stuff into chatgpt and it said it
         | means she is sick", because if you had said that he would have
         | looked at the bloodwork and you could have avoided going to a
         | specialist.
         | 
         | It's an interesting cognitive dissonance that you both trusted
         | it enough to go to a specialist but not enough to admit using
         | it.
        
         | pengaru wrote:
         | > A year or so ago, I fed my wife's blood work results into
         | chatgpt
         | 
         | Why would you consult a known bullshit generator for anything
         | this important?
        
         | port11 wrote:
         | You used a predictive/statistical proximity chatbot on a single
         | point-in-time snapshot of her blood, and you're pissed that the
         | result wasn't useful? I think any decent GP would push back,
         | want to see trends in the data, or at least look at the broader
         | context.
         | 
         | I mean, at some point we have to admit that LLMs aren't
         | designed for correctness but utility.
        
       | anonzzzies wrote:
       | Apple watch told me, based on vo2 max, that i'm almost dead, all
       | the time. I went to the doctor, did a real test and it was
       | complete nonsense. I had the watch replaced 3 times but same
       | results, so I returned it and will not try again. Scaring people
       | with stuff you cannot actually shut off (at least you couldn't
       | before) is not great.
        
       | chrisfosterelli wrote:
       | Health metrics are absolutely tarnished by a lack of proper
       | context. Unsurprisingly, it turns out that you can't reliably
       | take a concept as broad as health and reduce it to a number. We
       | see the same arguments over and over with body fat percentages,
       | vo2 max estimates, BMI, lactate thresholds, resting heart rate,
       | HRV, and more. These are all useful metrics, but it's important
       | to consider them in the proper context that each of them deserve.
       | 
       | This article gave an LLM a bunch of health metrics and then asked
       | it to reduce it to a single score, didn't tell us any of the
       | actual metric values, and then compared that to a doctor's
       | opinion. Why anyone would expect these to align is beyond my
       | understanding.
       | 
       | The most obvious thing that jumps out to me is that I've noticed
       | doctors generally, for better or worse, consider "health" much
       | differently than the fitness community does. It's different
       | toolsets and different goals. If this person's VO2 max estimate
       | was under 30, that's objectively a poor VO2 max by most
       | standards, and an LLM trained on the internet's entire repository
       | of fitness discussion is likely going to give this person a bad
       | score in terms of cardio fitness. But a doctor who sees a person
       | come in who isn't complaining about anything in particular, moves
       | around fine, doesn't have risk factors like age or family
       | history, and has good metrics on a blood test is probably going
       | to say they're in fine cardio health regardless of what their
       | wearable says.
       | 
       | I'd go so far to say this is probably the case for most people.
       | Your average person is in really poor fitness-shape but just fine
       | health-shape.
        
         | colechristensen wrote:
         | >I'd go so far to say this is probably the case for most
         | people. Your average person is in really poor fitness-shape but
         | just fine health-shape.
         | 
         | Modern medicine has failed to move into the era of subtlety and
         | small problems and many people suffer as a result. Fitness
         | nerds and general non-scientists fill the gap poorly so we get
         | a ton of guessing and anecdotal evidence and likely a whole lot
         | of bad advice.
         | 
         | Doctors won't say there's a problem until you're SICK and
         | usually pretty late in the process when there's not a lot of
         | room to make improvements.
         | 
         | At the same time, doctors won't do anything if you're 5% off
         | optimal, but they'll happily give you a medicine that improves
         | one symptom that's 50% off optimal that comes along with 10
         | side effects. Although unless you're dying or have something
         | really straightforward wrong with you, doctors don't do much at
         | all besides giving you a sedative and or a stimulant.
         | 
         | Doctors don't know what to do with small problems because
         | they're barely studied and the people who DO try to do
         | something don't do it scientifically.
        
           | lnsru wrote:
           | It's not medicine. It's healthcare system. Doctor isn't paid
           | enough to go thoroughly through the complaint and dig deeper.
           | In Germany you get 5 minutes diagnose and that's all from
           | health insurance. And this from the better doctor. For normal
           | one diagnose comes from 2 minutes interaction. Believing that
           | the diagnose is right is very naive.
        
           | anon7000 wrote:
           | A worthwhile book to read on this topic is Outlive by Peter
           | Attia (MD). The core premise is that American healthcare
           | focuses far too much on treating problems after they're
           | extremely severe. It is would be cheaper and healthier to
           | invest more into conservative & preventative care, trying to
           | prevent or minimize problems early in life before they become
           | incredibly dangerous and expensive/difficult/impossible to
           | treat.
           | 
           | I have a close friend who works in conservative care, and
           | it's astonishing what they see. For example, someone went to
           | a number of specialists and doctors about a throat condition
           | where they really struggled swallowing. They even had to
           | swallow a radioactive pill to do some kind of imaging.
           | Unnecessary exposure, and an expensive process to go through,
           | and ultimately went exactly nowhere.
           | 
           | Meanwhile, it was a simple musculoskeletal issue which my
           | friend was able to resolve in a single visit with absolutely
           | no risk to the patient.
           | 
           | Medical schools need to stop producing MDs who reach for
           | pills as the first line of defense without trying to root
           | cause issues. Do you really need addictive pain killers, or
           | maybe some PT, exercise, massage, etc. to help resolve your
           | pain.
        
           | Propelloni wrote:
           | Maybe I'm not getting you right, but IMO it hasn't? I, as a
           | customer/patient, just don't weekly converse with my MD about
           | small issues, and frankly, they have better things to do, for
           | example treating sick people.
           | 
           | Instead I use the health benefits programs of my health care
           | insurer. My insurer has an interest in prevention, so I can
           | get consulting for free (or very low fees), and even
           | kickbacks if I regularly participate in fitness courses and
           | maintain my yearly check-up routine. Now, I live in Germany
           | and it probably is different in other countries, but it just
           | makes economic sense from the insurer's point of view so that
           | I would be surprised if it were very different elsewhere.
        
           | Angostura wrote:
           | > Doctors won't say there's a problem until you're SICK and
           | usually pretty late in the process when there's not a lot of
           | room to make improvements.
           | 
           | As someone who is fit and active,in their 60s with zero
           | obvious symptoms, but is nonetheless on cholesterol and blood
           | pressure medication, this isn't true (in the UK, at least)
        
             | pjc50 wrote:
             | One of the things the NHS does surprisingly well, and is
             | only really possible because it's a completely vertically
             | integrated system, is population-level preventative
             | medicine. Distributing insulin and salbutamol. Screening
             | for various sorts of cancer. Cholesterol and BP checks.
             | Encouraging people to stop smoking.
        
           | steveBK123 wrote:
           | It's also cultural. Most American doctors don't bother to
           | tell people if they are overweight and out of shape. It's not
           | something their customers reward.
        
             | colechristensen wrote:
             | I mean... most people already know, it's not like either of
             | those things come as a surprise to anybody.
        
             | thewebguyd wrote:
             | > customers
             | 
             | And there's the problem. That they are "customers" that
             | pay, either direct or via insurance, or via government
             | insurance vs. a nationalized healthcare system, and I mean
             | health _care_ not nationalized health _insurance_
        
           | PlatoIsADisease wrote:
           | I think one of the major problems is that
           | biologists/scientists cannot legally treat people. Physicians
           | take their studies and have monopolistic treatment powers
           | over them.
           | 
           | I think this creates a huge knowledge gap.
        
         | Shank wrote:
         | > But a doctor who sees a person come in who isn't complaining
         | about anything in particular, moves around fine, doesn't have
         | risk factors like age or family history, and has good metrics
         | on a blood test is probably going to say they're in fine cardio
         | health regardless of what their wearable says.
         | 
         | This is true of many metrics and even lab results. Good doctors
         | will counsel you and tell you that the lab results are just one
         | metric and one input. The body acclimates to its current
         | conditions over time, and quite often achieves homeostasis.
         | 
         | My grandma was living for years with an SpO2 in the 90-95%
         | range as measured by pulse oximetry, but this was just one
         | metric measured with one method. It doesn't mean her blood
         | oxygen was actually repeatedly dropping, it just meant that her
         | body wasn't particularly suited to pulse oximetry.
        
           | vidarh wrote:
           | It doesn't help when doctors are often unaware of outliers
           | affecting the test results. E.g. I've had a number of doctors
           | freak out over my eGFR (kidney function) test results because
           | the default test they use is affected by body mass and diet,
           | and made even worse by e.g. preworkout supplements with
           | creatine. None of my doctors have been aware of this, and
           | I've had to explain it to them.
        
             | cthalupa wrote:
             | I've not seen evidence that creatine actually has
             | significant impact on eGFR. Anecdotally, mine does not
             | budge even on 5g a day. Meta-analysis show minimal impact,
             | e.g. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12590749/
             | 
             | Muscle mass obviously does, though. cystatin c is a better
             | market if your body composition differs from the "average"
        
               | vidarh wrote:
               | I did end up taking a cystatin c test privately to be
               | able to prove to my GP that the results he freaked out
               | over were nonsense. I'm in the UK, and for whatever
               | reason the NHS just doesn't typically do them for basic
               | kidney function - presumably cost, but they were dirt
               | cheap to do privately so...
        
               | harvey9 wrote:
               | NICE guidelines. "Evidence on the specific eGFR equations
               | or ethnicity adjustments seen by the committee was not
               | from UK studies so may not be applicable to UK black,
               | Asian and minority ethnic groups. None of the studies
               | included children and young people. The committee was
               | also concerned about the value of P30 as a measure of
               | accuracy (P30 is the probability that the measured value
               | is within 30% of the true value), the broad range of P30
               | values found across equations and the relative value or
               | accuracy of ethnicity adjustments to eGFR equations in
               | different ethnic groups. The committee agreed that adding
               | an ethnicity adjustment to eGFR equations for different
               | ethnicities may not be valid or accurate...."
               | 
               | https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/ng203/chapter/rationale-
               | and...
        
               | cthalupa wrote:
               | I'm not sure what point you're trying to make here. Have
               | I missed somewhere in the discussion where eGFR equation
               | adjustment based on ethnicity has been discussed?
               | 
               | Creatinine is the standard marker used for eGFR. It is
               | also a byproduct of muscle metabolism. People who
               | regularly lift weights or have lifestyles that otherwise
               | result in a higher-than-normal muscularity will almost
               | universally have higher creatinine levels than those who
               | don't, assuming similar baseline kidney function. It's
               | also problematic for people with extremely low muscle
               | mass, for the opposite reason.
               | 
               | It's one of the reasons enhanced bodybuilders can get bit
               | with failing kidney function - they know that their eGFR
               | is going to look worse and worse based on creatinine
               | formulas so they ignore it, when the elevated blood
               | pressure from all the dbol they're popping is killing
               | their kidneys.
               | 
               | Cystatin C is the better option for people with too much
               | (or too little) muscle for creatinine to be accurate.
        
               | vidarh wrote:
               | What does ethnicity has to do with anything?
               | 
               | My creatinine levels are high because my _body mass_ -
               | including muscle mass - is well above average. On the
               | basic kidney tests my GP did, my numbers indicated kidney
               | disease. Doing a Cystatin C test showed very clearly that
               | my numbers were firmly in the normal range.
               | 
               | The page _does_ go on to point out the muscle mass issue:
               | 
               | > The committee highlighted the 2008 recommendation,
               | which states that caution should be used when
               | interpreting eGFR and in adults with extremes of muscle
               | mass and on those who consume protein supplements (this
               | was added to recommendation 1.1.1).
               | 
               | Further down they do mention Cystatin C, and seem to have
               | basically decided that a risk of false positives is
               | acceptable because of a lower risk of false negatives.
               | That part _is_ interesting, and it may well be the right
               | decision at a population level.
               | 
               | But if your muscle mass is sufficiently above average,
               | the regular kidney tests done _will_ flag up possible
               | kidney disease every single damn time you do one, and my
               | experience is that UK doctors are totally oblivious to
               | the fact that this is not necessarily cause for concern
               | for a given patient and will often just assume a problem
               | and it will be up to the patient to educate them.
               | 
               | EDIT: What's worse, actually, is the number of times I've
               | had doctors or nurses try to help me to "game" this test
               | by telling me to e.g. drink more before the test next
               | time, seemingly oblivious that irrespective of precision,
               | making changes to conditions that also invalidates it as
               | a way to track _changes_ in eGFR is not helpful.
        
         | theshrike79 wrote:
         | Measuring metrics is easy, it's the algorithm on the backend
         | that matters.
         | 
         | There's a reason why Oura rings are expensive and it's not the
         | hardware - you can get similar stuff for 50EUR on Aliexpress.
         | 
         | But none of them predicted my Covid infection days in advance.
         | Oura did.
         | 
         | A device like the Apple Watch that's on you 24/7 is good with
         | TRENDS, not absolute measurements. It can tell you if your
         | heart rate, blood oxygen or something else is more or less than
         | before, statistically. For absolute measurements it's OK, but
         | not exact.
         | 
         | And from that we can make educated guesses on whether a visit
         | to a doctor is necessary.
        
           | yolo3000 wrote:
           | I'm curious how the ring detected it in advance? I also
           | discovered my Covid when I looked at my Garmin watch and my
           | resting heart rate was 100, until then I had thought I had
           | too much sun that day.
        
             | theshrike79 wrote:
             | Some of the metrics were out of whack, I think my average
             | body temp was up along with my resting heart rate both
             | asleep and awake.
             | 
             | It somehow takes all that and gave me a "you might be sick"
             | notification.
        
               | SirMaster wrote:
               | How is that predicting in advance though? Sounds like it
               | measured active symptoms like a change in body temp etc.
               | That's not prediction, that's reaction.
        
               | taeric wrote:
               | I think it is fair to assume they meant before symptoms?
               | Which, yes, your heart rate is a symptom. No, it isn't
               | one most people consider.
        
               | theshrike79 wrote:
               | Device detects 0.1 degree average temp increase. I don't.
               | 
               | Like your car will start with a small noise first, you
               | can't hear it. But in time the small noise becomes a big
               | noise just before things break.
               | 
               | If you catch it in the small noise part, you can
               | proactively prepare.
        
           | smallerfish wrote:
           | > But none of them predicted my Covid infection days in
           | advance. Oura did.
           | 
           | It actually warned you, or retrospectively looking at the
           | metrics you could see that there was a pattern in advance of
           | symptoms? (If the latter, same here with my Garmin watch -
           | precipitous HRV decline in the 7 days before symptoms. But no
           | actual warning.)
        
             | theshrike79 wrote:
             | It actually told me, they've been doing this for a while:
             | https://ouraring.com/blog/early-covid-symptoms/
             | 
             | Of course it didn't tell me "you have COVID19-B variant C"
             | - but it did tell me I'm probably sick and should seek
             | care.
        
         | sksksk wrote:
         | >This article gave an LLM a bunch of health metrics and then
         | asked it to reduce it to a single score, didn't tell us any of
         | the actual metric values, and then compared that to a doctor's
         | opinion. Why anyone would expect these to align is beyond my
         | understanding.
         | 
         | This gets to one of LLMs' core weaknesses, they blindly respond
         | to your requests and rarely push back against the premise of
         | it.
        
           | next_xibalba wrote:
           | I read somewhere that LLM chat apps are optimized to return
           | something useful, not correct or comprehensive (where useful
           | is defined as the user accepts it). I found this explanation
           | to be a useful (ha!) way to explain to friends and family why
           | they need to be skeptical of LLM outputs.
        
         | inopinatus wrote:
         | Many of those metrics are population or sampling measures and
         | are confounded by many factors at an individual level. The most
         | notorious of which is BMI; it is practically a category error
         | to infer someone's health or risk by individual BMI, and yet
         | doing so remains widespread amongst people that are supposed to
         | know better.
         | 
         | Instrumentation and testing become primarily useful at an
         | individual level to explain or investigate someone's disease or
         | disorder, or to screen for major risk factors, and the hazards
         | and consequences of unnecessary testing outweigh the benefits
         | in all but a few cases. For which your GP and/or government
         | will (or should) routinely screen those at actual risk, which
         | is why I pooped in a jar last week and mailed it.
         | 
         | An athlete chasing an ever-better VO2max or FTP hasn't
         | necessarily got it wrong, however. We can say something like,
         | "Bjorn Daehlie's results are _explained_ by extraordinary
         | VO2max ", with an implication that you should go get results
         | some other way because you're not a five-sigma outlier. But at
         | the pointy end of elite sport, there's a clear correlation
         | between marginal improvement of certain measures and
         | competitive outcomes, and if you don't think the difference of
         | 0.01sec between first and third matters then you've never stood
         | on a podium. Or worse, next to one. When mistakes are made and
         | performance deteriorates, it's often due to chasing the wrong
         | metric(s) for the athlete at hand, generally a failure of
         | coaching.
        
           | FeteCommuniste wrote:
           | > The most notorious of which is BMI; it is practically a
           | category error to infer someone's health or risk by
           | individual BMI, and yet doing so remains widespread amongst
           | people that are supposed to know better.
           | 
           | BMI works fine for people who aren't very muscular, which is
           | the great majority of people. Waist to height ratio might be
           | more informative for people with higher muscle mass.
        
             | tclancy wrote:
             | I dunno, basing life decisions off a metric that has a
             | fudge factor built into it to make the regression work
             | feels sub-optimal to me.
        
               | XorNot wrote:
               | BMI underestimates in most cases and your body fat is
               | higher then the chart would predict.
               | 
               | When people say "oh BMI isn't accurate" it means you are
               | more overweight then it suggests unless you are literally
               | an extreme body builder.
        
               | Spivak wrote:
               | This underestimation has a name, "Normal Weight Obesity."
               | Known by the slang "hot guy/girl fit" where the person
               | looks like they would be physically fit because they're
               | skinny but there's no muscle under there.
        
             | jermaustin1 wrote:
             | As a person who has been told I'm "morbidly obese" for
             | decades now, I will say that doctors at almost every level
             | look at your chart not you. I've been told time and time
             | again that until I get my weight under control, my health
             | will suffer.
             | 
             | I'm 5'8" and weigh on average 210lbs. My BMI isn't even
             | morbidly obese, it is 31, which is just "regular" obese,
             | but on top of that, a DEXA scan shows that I am actually
             | only 25% body fat, with only 1lb of visceral fat.
             | 
             | Doctor's don't care about that, they see on the Epic chart
             | that my BMI is > 30 and have to tell me some spiel about a
             | healthier lifestyle so they check check off a checkbox and
             | continue to the next screen.
        
               | prmoustache wrote:
               | > Doctor's don't care about that
               | 
               | Literally all of them?
        
               | jermaustin1 wrote:
               | I can't say literally all, but in my experience with
               | having to get a new GP almost every year because of
               | health insurance changes, location changes, hospital
               | consolidation buying my GPs practice, and multiple
               | doctors retiring or just quitting medicine (my last GP
               | was tired of medicine after practicing for only 3 years).
               | Over the last 20 years, I've had almost 15 GPs across 5
               | states (NY, NJ, CT, TX, LA). I also have multiple auto
               | immune diseases, so I have had a handful of specialists
               | of various flavors (endocrine, oncology - not for cancer,
               | cardiology, and urology), but only need them
               | occasionally.
               | 
               | Almost every single start of every single appointment
               | (including a follow up from just a couple days prior),
               | they comment about my BMI. It is the rare time they don't
               | that I remember. My last urology appointment the doctor
               | was very congenial, didn't even go over the lab work,
               | just said, everything is looking good, asked how I was
               | feeling, everything good, alright, refilled my
               | prescriptions and left.
        
               | coldtea wrote:
               | When humans talk, they use generalizations (and don't
               | need to annouce them). Here it means that most doctors
               | don't care about that.
               | 
               | Follow that rule next time you read such a statement in a
               | context that's not formal math.
        
               | prmoustache wrote:
               | > most
               | 
               | That is not even true. We are talking anecdotal evidence
               | here.
        
               | coldtea wrote:
               | Yes, humans have found that you don't need officially
               | stamped statistics (and in many cases they're unreliable
               | or "doctored" anyway), and that they can make general
               | observations on their own, through something they call
               | experience.
               | 
               | And a near universal experience with doctors for anybody
               | paying attention is that.
               | 
               | One can reject it or accept it and improve upon it after
               | checking its predictive power, or they can pause their
               | thinking and wait for some authority to give them the
               | official numbers on that.
        
               | PaulDavisThe1st wrote:
               | > When humans talk, they use generalizations
               | 
               | All humans?
               | 
               | Sorry :)
        
               | coldtea wrote:
               | Well, when humans talk, they use generalizations, which
               | applies recursively to this statement :)
               | 
               | Though, on second thought: yes, all humans, and not
               | merely as a generalization. 100% of humans do it.
        
               | Nicook wrote:
               | I mean those stats arent good...
        
               | joshhart wrote:
               | Huh. The standard in your case is to measure waist
               | circumference if BMI is high. Did no doctor do that? As
               | long as you are below 40" or 37" if Asian you are
               | considered good to go.
        
               | jermaustin1 wrote:
               | None ever did.
               | 
               | On top of that, I'm not sure if that is a real indication
               | of anything, either.
               | 
               | The reason to do that is to get an idea of your abdominal
               | fat (which is the more dangerous place for fat to store),
               | but there are two types of abdominal fat, one is
               | dangerous (visceral fat) and one is completely benign
               | (subcutaneous fat). And a measurement around your waist
               | won't tell you which you have.
               | 
               | I personally have almost all of my fat subcutaneous, with
               | only 1lb of visceral fat (which is right in the perfect
               | range).
        
               | sotix wrote:
               | I'd consider 5'8 and 210lbs morbidly obese. An average
               | male at 5'8 should generally weigh about 150lbs and no
               | more than 164lbs.
        
               | Teever wrote:
               | Or that guy could be a burly bricklacker / concerete
               | worker who can casually carry hundreds of pounds of
               | weight all day every day in brutal conditions.
               | 
               | It's really hard to tell with the data provided.
        
               | jermaustin1 wrote:
               | burly - maybe, but I haven't done any hard labor most of
               | my life. I ran track as a kid, and kept my high
               | metabolism - (RMR: 2460kcal, TDEE: 3380kcal); well lost
               | it when my thyroid failed, but medicated myself back to
               | it. I eat what I want, but its a very high lean-meat diet
               | (lots of chicken breast and turkey because my wife likes
               | them), but I don't limit my carb intake either, as I
               | mostly burn sugar for energy (according to my Respiratory
               | Exchange Ratio).
               | 
               | Somehow my body is just amazing at working without any
               | help from me. I don't even exercise much. Maybe a few
               | pushups a day, up and down my stairs at my house a couple
               | dozen times a day, and probably 5-10k steps a day max.
        
               | jermaustin1 wrote:
               | If I got rid of all of my fat and bones, I'd still weigh
               | more than 150lbs. I have the most muscular 150lbs man
               | inside of me.
               | 
               | Ideal body fat percentage is 18-24% - I'm at 25% (or was
               | in November - might be +/- 2% since then - gained a few
               | pounds weight, but not waist size).
               | 
               | So I would say I'm not morbidly obese or even regular
               | obese based on the percentage of my body that is muscle
               | vs fat.
        
               | csa wrote:
               | > I'd consider 5'8 and 210lbs morbidly obese. An average
               | male at 5'8 should generally weigh about 150lbs and no
               | more than 164lbs
               | 
               | You would consider incorrectly then.
               | 
               | This person has ~155 pounds _of lean body mass_. 164
               | would put him at roughly a body builder level of fat,
               | which basically requires a part time job in cooking and
               | nutrition to maintain.
               | 
               | For reference, I'm in a similar situation to this person.
               | I'm 5'11" (180cm) and about 200 lbs (91kg) with about 170
               | lbs of lean body mass. My dexa scan says that I'm 15%
               | body fat, but I get the same lectures from doctors about
               | being obese and needing a lifestyle change, all based on
               | BMI and (I assume) my size (I'm barrel chested). It's
               | completely absurd.
        
             | oarfish wrote:
             | My understanding is that it doesnt even do that, because it
             | creates false negatives for the so called skinny fat body
             | type: significant visceral fat mass, which is what we are
             | concerned about, but not much muscle or peripheral fat
             | mass, thereby not being flagged by BMI screens, even though
             | they are at risk.
        
             | inopinatus wrote:
             | > BMI works fine
             | 
             | An individual learns nothing from its calculation and it
             | has no clinical value. I receive more constructive feedback
             | from an auntie jabbing me in the chest and saying "you got
             | fat".
             | 
             | > the great majority of people
             | 
             | There is wide morphological variety across human
             | populations, so, no.
        
         | eleveriven wrote:
         | The problem is that the product itself invites the wrong
         | expectation
        
         | saghm wrote:
         | On the other hand, if compressing to a single number is not
         | possible, a doctor will just refuse to give a grade in that
         | way. In my experience, most doctors tend to be very careful
         | about trying to avoid saying anything definitive that they're
         | not actually sure of, even if they're reasonably confident, in
         | large part because part of their job involves understanding how
         | patients react to how things are communicated to them. Being
         | willing to confidently give a misleading answer to a bad
         | question is itself as bad thing when it comes to health data
         | because regular people aren't able to (and shouldn't be
         | expected to) figure out what various interferences from health
         | data happen to feasible from a given data set.
        
         | teleforce wrote:
         | >But a doctor who sees a person come in who isn't complaining
         | about anything in particular, moves around fine, doesn't have
         | risk factors like age or family history, and has good metrics
         | on a blood test is probably going to say they're in fine cardio
         | health regardless of what their wearable says.
         | 
         | The standard risk model for CVD based on SCORE-2 and PREVENT
         | like parameters are very poor as reported in the recently
         | published paper on the their accuracy performance by the
         | Swedish team [1]. As all CVD risk stratification with
         | cardiologist review, the most important accuracy is sensivity
         | (avoiding false negative that will escape review) of SCORE-2
         | and PREVENT, 48% and 26%, respectively.
         | 
         | The paper alternative proposal increased the sensitivity to 58%
         | by performing clustering instead of conventional regression
         | models as practiced in the standard SCORE-2 (Europe) and
         | PREVENT (US).
         | 
         | These type of models including the latest proposal performed
         | very poorly as indicated by their otherwise excellent and
         | intuitive display of graphical abstract results [1].
         | 
         | [1] Risk stratification for cardiovascular disease: a
         | comparative analysis of cluster analysis and traditional
         | prediction models:
         | 
         | https://academic.oup.com/eurjpc/advance-article/doi/10.1093/...
        
       | seemaze wrote:
       | I can't wait until it starts recommending signing me up for an
       | _OpenAI personalized multi-vitamin(r)_ supscription
        
         | meindnoch wrote:
         | "You're absolutely right! I was mistaken about mercury and lead
         | being essential minerals, and adding them to your supplements.
         | Sorry about that!"
        
       | elzbardico wrote:
       | A simple understanding of transformers should be enough to make
       | someone see that using an LLM to analyze multi-variate time
       | series data is a really stupid endeavor.
        
         | nprateem wrote:
         | It should be obvious to even the most dim-witted idiot with a
         | PhD in statistics and AI
        
           | elzbardico wrote:
           | You only need this if you are a researcher. Undergraduate
           | knowledge of Calculus and Linear Algebra is more than enough
           | to have quite a good understanding of ML in general, and LLMs
           | in particular.
           | 
           | Maybe a very small bit of Information Theory (a couple of
           | Shannon's papers are enough) and some classical books on
           | Natural Language Processing from the late 90s and early 2000
           | so you have an idea of what Language Models are outside the
           | modern Deep Learning driven approach.
        
       | elzbardico wrote:
       | LLMs are not a mythical universal machine learning model that you
       | can feed any input and have it magically do the same thing a
       | specialized ML model could do.
       | 
       | You can't feed an LLM years of time-series meteorological data,
       | and expect it to work as a specialized weather model, you can't
       | feed it years of medical time-series and expect it to work as a
       | model specifically trained, and validated on this specific kind
       | of data.
       | 
       | An LLM generates a stream of tokens. You feed it a giant set of
       | CSVs, if it was not RL'd to do something useful with it, it will
       | just try to make whatever sense of it and generate something that
       | will most probably have no strong numerical relationship to your
       | data, it will simulate an analysis, it won't do it.
       | 
       | You may have a giant context windows, but attention is sparse,
       | the attention mechanism doesn't see your whole data at the same
       | time, it can do some simple comparisons, like figuring out that
       | if I say my current pressure is 210X180 I should call an ER
       | immediately. But once I send it a time-series of my twice a day
       | blood-pressure measurements for the last 10 years, it can't make
       | any real sense of it.
       | 
       | Indeed, it would have been better for the author to ask the LLM
       | to generate a python notebook to do some data analysis on it, and
       | then run the notebook and share the result with the doctor.
        
         | rfw300 wrote:
         | This is true as a technical matter, but this isn't a technical
         | blog post! It's a consumer review, and when companies ship
         | consumer products, the people who use them can't be expected to
         | understand failure modes that are not clearly communicated to
         | them. If OpenAI wants regular people to dump their data into
         | ChatGPT for Health, the onus is on them to make it reliable.
        
           | themafia wrote:
           | > the onus is on them to make it reliable.
           | 
           | That is not a plausible outcome given the current technology
           | or of any of OpenAI's demonstrated capabilities.
           | 
           | "If Bob's Hacksaw Surgery Center wants to stay in business
           | they have to stop killing patients!"
           | 
           | Perhaps we should just stop him before it goes too far?
        
             | vineyardmike wrote:
             | > That is not a plausible outcome given the current
             | technology or of any of OpenAI's demonstrated capabilities
             | 
             | OpenAI has said that medical advice was one of their
             | biggest use-cases they saw from users. It should be assumed
             | they're investigating how to build out this product
             | capability.
             | 
             | Google has LLMs fine tuned on medical data. I have a friend
             | who works at a top-tier US medical research university, and
             | the university is regularly working with ML research labs
             | to generate doctor-annotated training data. OpenAI
             | absolutely could be involved in creating such a product
             | using this sort of source.
             | 
             | You can feed an LLM text, pictures, videos, audio, etc -
             | why not train a model to accept medical-time-series data as
             | another modality? Obviously this could have a negative
             | performance impact on a coding model, but could potentially
             | be valuable for a consumer-oriented chat bot. Or, of
             | course, they could create a dedicated model and tool-call
             | that model.
        
               | elzbardico wrote:
               | They are going to do the same thing they do with code.
               | 
               | They are going to hire armies of developing world workers
               | to massage those models on post-training to have some
               | acceptable behaviors, and they will create the
               | appropriate agents with the appropriate tools to have
               | something that will simulate the real thing in a most
               | plausible way.
               | 
               | Problem is, RLVR is cheap with code, but it can get very
               | expensive with human physiology.
        
         | protocolture wrote:
         | This LLM is advertising itself in a medical capacity. You arent
         | wrong, but the customer has been fed the wrong set of
         | expectations. Its the fault of the marketing of the tool.
        
         | Deklomalo wrote:
         | You state a lot of things without testing it first?
         | 
         | A LLM has structures in its latent space which allows it to do
         | basic math, it has also seen enough data that it has probably
         | structures in it to detect basic trends.
         | 
         | A LLM doesn't just generate a stream of tokens. It generates an
         | embedding and searches/does something in its latent space, then
         | returns tokens.
         | 
         | And you don't even know at all what LLM Interfaces do in the
         | background. Gemini creates sub-agents. There can easily be
         | already a 'trend detector'.
         | 
         | I even did a test and generated random data with a trend and
         | fet it to chatgpt. The output was very coherent and right.
        
           | elzbardico wrote:
           | That's not how it works.
        
       | stego-tech wrote:
       | This is not remotely surprising.
       | 
       | Look, AI Healthbros, I'll tell you quite clearly what I want from
       | your statistical pattern analyzers, and you don't even have to
       | pay me for the idea (though I wouldn't say no to a home or
       | Enterprise IT gig at your startup):
       | 
       | I want an AI/ML tool to not merely analyze my medical info (ON
       | DEVICE, no cloud sharing kthx), but also extrapolate patterns
       | involving weather, location, screen time, and other "non-health"
       | data.
       | 
       | Do I record taking tylenol when the barometric pressure drops?
       | Start alerting me ahead of time so I can try to avoid a headache.
       | 
       | Does my screen time correlate to immediately decreased sleep
       | scores? Send me a push notification or webhook I can act
       | upon/script off of, like locking me out of my device for the
       | night or dimming my lights.
       | 
       | Am I recording higher-intensity workouts in colder temperatures
       | or inclement weather? Start tracking those metrics and maybe keep
       | better track of balance readings during those events for improved
       | mobility issue detection.
       | 
       | Got an app where I track cannabis use or alcohol consumption? Tie
       | that to my mental health journal or biological readings to
       | identify red flags or concerns about misuse.
       | 
       | Stop trying to _replace_ people like my medical care team, and
       | instead equip them with better insights and datasets they can
       | more quickly act upon.  "Subject has been reporting more negative
       | moods in his mental health journal, an uptick in alcohol
       | consumption above his baseline, and inconsistent cannabis use
       | compared to prior patterns" equips the care team with a quick,
       | verifiable blurb from larger datasets that can accelerate care
       | and improve patient outcomes - without the hallucinations of
       | generative AI.
        
       | siliconc0w wrote:
       | The problem is that false positives can be incredibly expensive
       | in money, time, pain, and anxiety. Most people cannot afford (and
       | healthcare system cannot handle) thousands of dollars in tests to
       | disprove every AI hunch. And tests are rarely consequence free.
       | This is effectively a negative externality of these AI health
       | products and society is picking up the tab.
        
         | mr_toad wrote:
         | This is why certain types of cancer tests are usually only
         | performed on people over a certain age. If you test young
         | people the false positives outnumber the true positives.
        
       | jdub wrote:
       | Why do people even begin to believe that a large language model
       | can usefully understand and interpret health data?
       | 
       | Sure, LLM companies and proponents bear responsibility for the
       | positioning of LLM tools, and particularly their presentation as
       | chat bots.
       | 
       | But from a systems point of view, it's hard to ignore the
       | inequity and inconvenience of the US health system driving people
       | to unrealistic alternatives.
       | 
       | (I wonder if anyone's gathering comparable stats on "Doctor LLM"
       | interactions in different countries... there were some
       | interesting ones that showed how "Doctor Google" was more of a
       | problem in the US than elsewhere.)
        
       | djoldman wrote:
       | I'm less interested in what "grade" the AI gave and much more
       | interested in what therapy or remedy it would have suggested.
       | That's curiously lacking here.
        
       | daft_pink wrote:
       | the problem with ai is that it isn't good at recognizing red
       | flags in data. i used it to find red flags in a financial report
       | and it finds red flags in virtually every financial report it
       | lays eyes on.
        
       | evolighting wrote:
       | Health data, medical records, even research data, is very scarce
       | in the public domain. This is not just due to so-called privacy
       | concerns, but because such data could have generated "value" (and
       | been sold at a good price) long before the emergence of large
       | language models.
        
         | ThundeChile wrote:
         | I think it's quite alarming that people don't even think about
         | the privacy when sending their health data to corporations
         | which make a large percentage of their revenue selling the data
         | onwards (or using it to things you didn't mean them to).
        
       | cameldrv wrote:
       | I dunno, if the Apple Watch said he had a vo2max of 30, that
       | probably means he can't run a mile in less than 12 minutes or so.
       | He's probably not at all healthy...
        
         | smcl wrote:
         | Apple Watch is pretty poor at estimating VO2 max and it seems
         | to be more correlated with how often you record exercises with
         | said watch than with your actual health. For example I watched
         | mine climb slowly as I prepared for my football season (beyond
         | 50), then after the season started I I ended up playing and
         | training just as frequently but _without_ wearing the watch.
         | After a few weeks (of me training and playing hard) during my
         | next run it recorded me having a sharp decline in VO2 max
         | (43-44ish iirc). When I started wearing it during training -
         | you 're not permitted during matches - it recorded me having a
         | slow return to condition, without any changes to my routine.
         | 
         | That said if it's showing someone as having _30_ I don 't
         | imagine they're going to be in spectacular condition
        
           | eleveriven wrote:
           | This is really more of an "utdoor run while wearing the
           | watch" proxy than a true fitness measure
        
           | port11 wrote:
           | I really don't know whether to trust that specific
           | measurement. When I was a very active runner and doing
           | intervals to improve per-km time, my VO2max went from 38 to
           | 42. I decided to do a professional VO2max test and got a 46.
           | 
           | Now, 2 years later, I don't run due to injury and a kid, and
           | it's resting at 34. For reference, when I went to the gym
           | almost everyday and ran once or twice a week, the value was
           | 32.
           | 
           | I don't get much utility out of it, even looking at the
           | trends. Not sure what Apple is doing behind the scenes to get
           | the score.
        
             | smcl wrote:
             | Yeah so I know it's meant to be an estimate, but my
             | experience of it is kinda fucky. I would really love to
             | swap watches with an Olympic athlete (idk if they'd bother
             | with an Apple Watch but bear with me!) and run 10k to see
             | what the VO2 max reading for that exercise was. As I said,
             | I think to me it's some estimate that heavily involves some
             | "average of last N readings from the Apple VO2 max calc"
             | function so even if you time travelled and gave it to
             | Eilish McColgan or Mo Farah they'd be like "ehhh you had
             | quite a good run, fatty - you jumped from 44.3 to 45"
             | 
             | I'm not _that_ bothered of course. For me it 's just a fun
             | metric I can attempt to optimise when training.
        
         | Someone wrote:
         | > he had a vo2max of 30, that probably means he can't run a
         | mile in less than 12 minutes or so. He's probably not at all
         | healthy...
         | 
         | Health and fitness correlate but are different things. VO2max
         | is more about fitness than about health.
         | 
         | Also, looking at
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VO2_max#Reference_values, 30 is
         | about average for men in their 40s/50s, which, form a quick
         | google, I estimate is the author's age range.
        
           | netdevphoenix wrote:
           | Fitness correlates with health though. Just because you don't
           | have any conditions does not mean that you are healthy. And
           | inability to meet certain fitness tests is correlated with
           | lower health.
        
           | FeteCommuniste wrote:
           | > Also, looking at
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VO2_max#Reference_values, 30 is
           | about average for men in their 40s/50s, which, form a quick
           | google, I estimate is the author's age range.
           | 
           | And the average man is his 40s or 50s is in...not especially
           | good aerobic shape.
        
           | danielmarkbruce wrote:
           | This is a silly take. VO2 max is one of the strongest
           | predictors of all cause mortality. Various large scale
           | studies have shown it to be true.
        
         | dgxyz wrote:
         | If Apple watch said _anything_ about that it 's probably wrong.
         | It can't accurately measure VO2 max.
         | 
         | Incidentally I got rid of mine recently. It is bliss not having
         | one.
         | 
         | Also VO2 max is a crappy measure of fitness. I apparently had
         | "average" VO2 max after a treadmill test. I can hike 50km with
         | a 2km elevation gain in one go and not die. People with higher
         | VO2 max I know, dropped out.
        
           | evandijk70 wrote:
           | During a 50 km hike you are not anywhere close to your VO2
           | max, so it makes sense that the VO2 max is not predictive for
           | that distance.
        
           | bwv848 wrote:
           | > hike 50km with a 2km elevation gain in one go and not die.
           | 
           | And thru-hikers can do this for days. It's more related to
           | fatigue resistance, mitochondrial density, and walking
           | efficiency. But VO2 max still matters in high-intensity
           | sports, you can't ignore it when you're pedaling a bike at
           | high Zone 4 in a race.
        
           | danielmarkbruce wrote:
           | vo2 max is one of the strongest predictors of all cause
           | mortality.
        
         | mr_toad wrote:
         | Compared to the average patient a typical GP sees, someone who
         | can actually run a mile is probably doing pretty well.
        
           | smt88 wrote:
           | This is certainly true in the US, but I don't think it's
           | universal at all
        
         | akshivb wrote:
         | I had a "below average" VO2 max score based on my Apple Watch
         | measurements. It was ~40 mL/kg/min, in the span of about a
         | month it jumped up to 53 mL/kg/min, which is "high" for my age
         | group. So what happened? I started running instead of cycling
         | as my primary form of cardio.
         | 
         | My hypothesis is that the apple watch estimates higher if you
         | are running rather than pedaling. I definitely don't think my
         | cardio vascular went from poor to great over a month. It seems
         | more likely that it was maybe underestimating, and perhaps now
         | is overestimating.
        
           | wincy wrote:
           | Yeah I just ignore it, when I was biking 40+ miles a week
           | this summer it says my VO2 max was 18, which is just absurd.
           | Maybe because my arm is really hairy I don't know.
        
           | mdtancsa wrote:
           | After a long injury, I got back to slowly running on the
           | treadmill/bike/elliptical at the gym. IIRC, my garmin
           | qualified its VO2Max results by saying I needed to run out
           | side for some period of time to get a more accurate
           | measurement. I guess there is something about the running
           | metrics it collects that has a smaller error range.
        
       | sinuhe69 wrote:
       | My general take on any AI/ML in medicine is that without a proper
       | clinical validation, they are not worth to try. Also, AI Snake
       | Oil is worth reading.
        
         | rubatuga wrote:
         | Clinical validation, proper calibration, ethnic and community
         | and population variants, questioning technique and more ...
        
         | joelthelion wrote:
         | Exactly. There's a lot of potential, but it needs to be done
         | right, otherwise it is worse than useless.
        
       | gizmodo59 wrote:
       | For every sensational article of AI was useless, there is plenty
       | of examples where using ChatGPT to find out what else could be
       | happening and then having a conversation with doctor has helped
       | many that I know of anecdotally and many such reports online as
       | well.
       | 
       | At the end of the day, it's yet another tool that people can use
       | to help their lives. They have to use their brain. The culture of
       | seeing doctor as a god doesn't hold up anymore. So many people
       | have had bad experiences when the entire health care industry at
       | least in US is primarily a business than helping society get
       | healthy.
        
       | gizajob wrote:
       | Hard to tell who is stupider, the writer or ChatGPT.
        
         | astura wrote:
         | The writer makes money from pumping out shitty click bait
         | articles.
        
           | FeteCommuniste wrote:
           | I don't see how it's "shitty." It portrays a usage of ChatGPT
           | that I imagine is becoming pretty typical. People are
           | treating "AI" as an oracle. The situation isn't helped by
           | corporate heads and LLM boosters blathering on about how AI
           | is soon going to replace most of the workforce, boost
           | productivity by a gazillion percent, and cure cancer.
        
       | Barathkanna wrote:
       | TLDR: AI didn't diagnose anything, it turned years of messy
       | health data into clear trends. That helped the author ask better
       | questions and have a more useful conversation with their doctor,
       | which is the real value here.
        
       | alpineman wrote:
       | My wife is a doctor and there is a general trend at the moment of
       | everyone thinking their intelligence in one area (say
       | programming) carries over into other areas such as medicine,
       | particularly with new tools such as ChatGPT.
       | 
       | Imagine if as a dev someone came to you and told you everything
       | that is wrong with your tech stack because they copy pasted some
       | console errors into ChatGPT. There's a reason doctors need to
       | spend almost a decade in training to parse this kind of info. If
       | you do the above then please do it with respect for their
       | profession.
        
         | tripledry wrote:
         | I'm reminded of an effect called Gell-Mann Amnesia.
         | 
         | When reading news stories on topics you know well, you notice
         | inaccuracies or poor reporting - but then immediately forget
         | that lesson when reading the next article on a topic you are
         | not familiar with.
         | 
         | It's very similar to what happens with AI.
        
         | FeteCommuniste wrote:
         | > My wife is a doctor and there is a general trend at the
         | moment of everyone thinking their intelligence in one area (say
         | programming) carries over into other areas such as medicine,
         | particularly with new tools such as ChatGPT.
         | 
         | My wife is a lawyer and sees the same thing at her job. People
         | "writing" briefs or doing legal "research" with GPT and then
         | insisting that their document must be right because the magic
         | AI box produced it.
        
         | mr_toad wrote:
         | > general trend at the moment
         | 
         | "A little knowledge is a dangerous thing" is not new, it's a
         | quote/observation that goes back hundreds of years.
         | 
         | > Imagine if as a dev someone came to you and told you
         | everything that is wrong with your tech stack because they copy
         | pasted some console errors into ChatGPT.
         | 
         | You mean the PHB? They don't need ChatGPT for that, they can
         | cite Gartner.
        
       | Aachen wrote:
       | > I let ChatGPT analyze a decade of my Apple Watch data, then I
       | called my doctor
       | 
       | ... and you won't believe what happened next!
       | 
       | Can we do away with the clickbait from MSN? The article is about
       | LLMs misdiagnosing cardiovascular status when given fitness
       | tracker data
        
         | g947o wrote:
         | I have www.msn.com added to the blocklist of my router's
         | adblock settings so that I can stop seeing nonsense in
         | Skype/Windows. It worked for a while.
         | 
         | Of course, the real solution is to stop using Microsoft
         | products, which I did.
        
           | Aachen wrote:
           | Frankly the main thing I take issue with is dumping these
           | garbage titles onto HN. They can do what they want on their
           | site
        
       | eleveriven wrote:
       | Right now this looks less like "AI for healthcare" and more like
       | a very polished way to scare (or falsely reassure) people
        
       | cthalupa wrote:
       | I'll preface this with I generally trust doctors. I think on the
       | whole they are well positioned to provide massive benefit to
       | their patients.
       | 
       | I will also preface this with saying I do not think any LLM is
       | better than the average doctor and that you are far better served
       | going to your doctor than asking ChatGPT what your health is like
       | on any factor.
       | 
       | But I'll also say that the quality of doctors varies massively,
       | and that a good amount of doctors learn what they learn in school
       | and do not keep up with the latest advances in research,
       | particularly those that have broad spectrums such as GPs. LLMs
       | that search scientific literature, etc., might point you in the
       | direction of this research that the doctors are not aware of. Or
       | hallucinate you into having some random disease that impacts 3
       | out of every million people and send you down a rabbithole for
       | months.
       | 
       | Unfortunately, it's difficult to resolve this without extremely
       | good insurance or money to burn. The depth you get and the level
       | of information that a good preventative care cardiologist has is
       | just miles ahead of where your average family medicine
       | practitioner is at. Statins are an excellent example - new
       | prescriptions are for atorvastatin are still insanely high
       | despite it being a fairly poor choice in comparison to
       | rosuvastatin or pitavastatin for a good chunk of the people on
       | it. They often are behind on the latest recommendations from the
       | NLA and AHA, etc.
       | 
       | There's a world where LLMs or similar can empower everyday people
       | to talk to their doctor about their options and where they stand
       | on health, where they don't have to hope their doc is familiar
       | with where the science has shifted over the past 5-10 years, or
       | cough up the money for someone who specializes in it. But that's
       | not the world of today.
       | 
       | In the mean time, I do think people should be comfortable being
       | their own advocates with their doctors. I'm lucky enough that my
       | primary care doc is open to reading the studies I send over to
       | him on things and work with me. Or at least patient enough to
       | humor me. But it's let me get on medications that treat my
       | symptoms without side effects and improved my quality of life
       | (and hopefully life/healthspan). There's also been things I've
       | misinterpreted - I don't pick a fight with him if we come to
       | opposite conclusions. He's shown good faith in agreeing with me
       | where it makes sense to me, and pushed back where it hasn't, and
       | I acknowledge he's the expert.
        
         | biophysboy wrote:
         | I think the fairest test is: what is the best and fastest way
         | to reduce medical uncertainty? For rare ailments with a single
         | cause and exclusive symptoms, that can be accurately described
         | with simple language (no medical jargon), its possible that an
         | LLM is better than a doctor.
         | 
         | For more ambiguous situations where you need actual tests, I am
         | skeptical of using LLMs.
        
         | port11 wrote:
         | I interviewed for Ada, whose ML diagnostic tool had shown
         | itself more accurate at diagnosis than a panel of doctors. It
         | was specifically trained on case data, IIRC, and doctors were
         | paid to help improve the results.
         | 
         | I wonder what it's like now. Any time I use it for a diagnosis
         | I get outlandish results, and then I'll head to my GP and turns
         | out it was something rather simple.
        
       | francisofascii wrote:
       | > There were big swings in my resting heart rate whenever I got a
       | new Apple Watch, suggesting the devices may not have been
       | tracking the same way.
       | 
       | First of all, wrist based HR measurements are not reliable. If
       | you feed ChatGPT a ton of HR data that is just plain wrong,
       | expect a bad result. Everyone who wants to track HR reliably
       | should invest in a chest strap. The VO2 Max calculation is
       | heavily based on your pace at a given heart rate. It makes some
       | generalizations on on your running biomechanics. For example, if
       | your "real" lab tested VO2 max stays constant, but you improve
       | your biomechanics / running efficiency, you can run faster at the
       | same effort, and your Apple watch will increase your VO2 Max
       | number.
        
         | AlanYx wrote:
         | In this case the article's guess is probably accurate. Apple
         | did change how they measure RHR in WatchOS 11.2. If the author
         | was using an Apple Watch that doesn't support 11.2 and then
         | switched to one that does, a swing was very likely.
        
       | zombot wrote:
       | Giving your health data to an AI is sick. Unfortunately no doctor
       | can cure you of that.
        
       | hasbot wrote:
       | Hmm, sure it's maybe wrong now, but in several years, it could be
       | correct. So maybe I should wear a device now so when it does
       | become correct and I'm even older, AI might be useful.
       | 
       | I'm definitely not going with Apple. Are there any minimally
       | obtrusive trackers that provide downloadable data?
        
       | spicyusername wrote:
       | So we're feeding bad data into a system known for making answers
       | up and expecting... what exactly, lol
        
       | zhisme wrote:
       | Check out iatrogenesis. There's no need to rely on apple watch
       | data to become some drug addicted guy curing never existed
       | diseases. That's not the metric you want to define whether you
       | need meds and medical help at all.
        
       | blef wrote:
       | The title would have been event better if: "I had ChatGPT analyze
       | a decade of my Apple Watch data, then it called my doctor"
        
       | ge96 wrote:
       | I think I found the proper sleep amount for me (sleep deprived).
       | It has me feeling agitated/motivated. It's around 5 hours. What I
       | need is something like Apple Watch to detect when I've actually
       | fallen asleep then set the alarm for that long.
        
       | jablongo wrote:
       | There needs to be more documentation about what info was provided
       | to the LLM and in which format before we decide that LLMs are
       | necessarily bad at this. That said, you would expect the offering
       | from a $500bn company to be more robust and better tested than
       | this, assuming this is reported accurately.
        
       | uriegas wrote:
       | There are some research projects out there that use LLMs for
       | health diagnostics. Here's one:
       | https://cs.stanford.edu/people/jure/pubs/med-pmlr23.pdf
       | 
       | They usually require more data It is not a great idea to diagnose
       | anything with so few information. But in general I am optimistic
       | of the use of LLMs on health.
        
       | 6stringmerc wrote:
       | In my view the people, no matter walk of life or education level
       | or societal class, who ask "AI" systems mental or physical health
       | questions are modern day incarnations of customers who went to
       | palm readers, tarot card sessions, or used to rely on
       | televangelists for hope and meaning.
       | 
       | I strongly dislike the author conflating HIPAA with PHI but this
       | is a losing battle for me. And clearly editors don't spot it,
       | neither do AI systems - where is Clippy?! It simply serves as an
       | indicator the author is a pretty ignorant medical consumer in the
       | US, and this case study is stunning. Some people really should
       | not be allowed to engage with magic.
        
       | tiffanyh wrote:
       | What's the feedback loop here for ChatGPT?
       | 
       | For it to get better, it needs to know outcomes of its diagnosis.
       | 
       | Are people just typing back to ChatGPT saying "you're wrong /
       | you're right"?
        
       | rurban wrote:
       | I use the free Huawei Health for like 2 years, and it was pretty
       | good so far. The sensors suck of course, but better than nothing.
       | I had a special watch to test my high blood pressure, but even
       | this never matched my special pressure device.
        
       | danielmarkbruce wrote:
       | vo2 max is one of the strongest predictors of all cause
       | mortality. It's been reproduced across several large scale
       | studies. I'm on the side of ChatGPT on this one. I'd guess the
       | writer of this article is leaving something out.
       | 
       | A family member recently passed away from a rare, clinically
       | diagnosed disease. ChatGPT knew what it was a couple months
       | before the relevant specialists diagnosed it.
        
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