[HN Gopher] The Future of Everything Is Lies, I Guess: Safety
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       The Future of Everything Is Lies, I Guess: Safety
        
       Author : aphyr
       Score  : 256 points
       Date   : 2026-04-13 16:23 UTC (6 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (aphyr.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (aphyr.com)
        
       | Cynddl wrote:
       | > "Unavailable Due to the UK Online Safety Act"
       | 
       | Anyone outside the UK can share what this is about?
        
         | 0x3444ac53 wrote:
         | https://web.archive.org/web/20260413164025/https://aphyr.com...
        
         | satvikpendem wrote:
         | Ironic.
        
         | starik36 wrote:
         | What specifically is unsafe in this article?
        
           | onei wrote:
           | It's not that the article is inherently unsafe, it's that the
           | UK law imposes a liability the author is unwilling to
           | shoulder.
        
             | cs02rm0 wrote:
             | Although Ofcom doesn't think geo blocking is sufficient to
             | absolve them of that liability. Crazy as that is.
        
               | aphyr wrote:
               | I actually wound up geoblocking the UK based on Ofcom's
               | February 2025 presentation for small services providers--
               | they said that they intended to target "one-man bands"
               | who (e.g.) failed to perform a child risk assessment or
               | age verification, but that a geoblock would be considered
               | compliant. I don't like doing this, but as someone who
               | visits the UK regularly (and has been regularly pushing
               | Ofcom on this matter) I figure better safe than sorry.
               | 
               | https://player.vimeo.com/video/1053842235?app_id=122963
        
         | tristramb wrote:
         | Use the Tor browser
        
       | throwway120385 wrote:
       | At scale I think our society is slowly inching closer and closer
       | to building HM.
        
         | nine_k wrote:
         | What is HM here?
        
           | zackmorris wrote:
           | Hacker Mews
        
             | throwaway27448 wrote:
             | Looksmaxxing really has gone mainstream huh
        
               | bitwize wrote:
               | Thought it was all the Rust catgirls.
        
             | throw4847285 wrote:
             | Sounds like a lovely co-op building, or perhaps a
             | retirement community for aging hackers.
        
           | derektank wrote:
           | Maybe they meant AM (Allied Mastercomputer) from "I Have No
           | Mouth, and I Must Scream"
        
           | Sardtok wrote:
           | Hennes & Mauritz is a Swedish clothing retailer.
           | 
           | On a serious note, I think they meant TN, as in Torment
           | Nexus, but I could be wrong.
        
           | throw4847285 wrote:
           | A Hidden Machine. That's right, a being that can cut, fly,
           | surf, strength, and flash! Terrifying.
        
       | jazzpush2 wrote:
       | Every one of these posts is immediately pushed to the front page,
       | this one within 4 minutes.
        
         | acdha wrote:
         | That's unsurprising given the author's long history in the tech
         | community. A ton of people see that domain and upvote.
        
           | jazzpush2 wrote:
           | Sure, but 4 front-page posts from the same url in 4 days
           | surely sits at the tail of the distribution. (I guess they
           | all capitalize on the same 'LLM-is-bad' sentiment).
        
             | zdragnar wrote:
             | It's also aphyr, who is incredibly popular. Take one very
             | popular author, have him write a series of posts on the
             | zeitgeist everyone can't help but talk about, and yes, the
             | outcome is that his posts are extremely popular.
             | 
             | I still remember his takedown of mongodb's claims with the
             | call me maybe post years and years ago filling me with a
             | good bit of awe.
        
               | macintux wrote:
               | When I worked for Basho, aphyr was highly respected by
               | some of the smartest people I'd ever worked with.
               | Definitely no slouch.
        
             | borski wrote:
             | It's because it's aphyr.
             | 
             | If 'tptacek posts a blog post, I bet it similarly does
             | well, on average, because they're a "known quantity" around
             | these parts, for example.
        
             | acdha wrote:
             | Different URL, same domain, and exactly the kind of thing
             | I'd expect a fair number of HN readers to have in a feed
             | reader where they'd see it shortly after publication and
             | decide to share it.
             | 
             | Also, if you think this is just "LLM is bad", I highly
             | suggest reading the series first. The social impacts they
             | talked about at the start of the series should resonate
             | with a lot of people here and are exactly the kind of thing
             | which people building systems should talk about. If you're
             | selling LLMs, you still want to think about how what you're
             | building will affect the larger society you live in and the
             | ways that could go wrong--even if we posit sociopath/MBA-
             | levels of disregard for impacts on other people, you still
             | want to think about how LLMs change the fraud and security
             | landscape, how the tools you build can be misused, how all
             | of this is likely to lead to regulatory changes.
        
         | stronglikedan wrote:
         | that's just, like, how HN works. people post, people like,
         | people upvote, people discuss
        
         | aphyr wrote:
         | It's been weirdly uneven. Sections 1, 3, and 5 did well on HN;
         | 2, 4, and 6 sank with essentially no trace. The distribution of
         | views is presently:
         | 
         | 1. Introduction: 33,088
         | (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47689648)
         | 
         | 2. Dynamics: 3,659
         | (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47693678)
         | 
         | 3. Culture: 5,914
         | (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47703528)
         | 
         | 4. Information Ecology: 777
         | (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47718502)
         | 
         | 5. Annoyances: 7,020
         | (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47730981)
         | 
         | 6. Psychological Hazards: 199
         | (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47747936)
         | 
         | Feedback from early readers was that the work was too large to
         | digest in a single reading, so I split it up into a series of
         | posts. I'm not entirely sure this was the right call; the
         | sections I thought were the most interesting seem to have
         | gotten much less attention than the introductory preliminaries.
        
           | simoncion wrote:
           | I'm not sure that HN vote count is a good indicator of
           | interest? HN alerted me to the existence of the intro post. I
           | read the intro, noticed that it was one in an ongoing series,
           | and have been checking your blog for new installments every
           | few days.
           | 
           | I suspect that if you'd not broken up the post into a series
           | of smaller ones, the sorts of folks who are unwilling to read
           | the whole thing as you post it section by section would have
           | fed the entire post to an LLM to "summarize".
        
           | dgfl wrote:
           | I think these articles may benefit from a more thorough table
           | of content at the beginning, or from some kind of abstract.
           | If you briefly presented the whole list of topics in a single
           | article, it would be more clear that your views on the topic
           | are more complete. I initially thought the table of content
           | would be scoped to the article itself rather than connecting
           | it to the adjacent ones.
           | 
           | I had never heard of you, and this article appeared very
           | biased to me. I found the information ecology piece superior,
           | shame that it went unnoticed; I will try to go through all of
           | them. I admire the breadth of topics you're covering and
           | appreciate the many sources. They're clearly written in your
           | own voice and that is great to see, I guess I mostly reacted
           | to not being fully aligned with your view.
        
         | tptacek wrote:
         | A statement broadly true of most things this author writes.
        
       | macintux wrote:
       | Previous discussions from earlier posts on the topic:
       | 
       | * https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47703528
       | 
       | * https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47730981
        
       | ibrahimhossain wrote:
       | Alignment feels like an arms race that favors whoever spends the
       | most on RLHF and red teaming. If even friendly models keep
       | leaking dangerous capabilities, the real moat might be making
       | systems that are fundamentally limited rather than trying to
       | patch every possible failure mode. Interesting piece.
        
       | Imnimo wrote:
       | >Unlike human brains, which are biologically predisposed to
       | acquire prosocial behavior, there is nothing intrinsic in the
       | mathematics or hardware that ensures models are nice.
       | 
       | How did brains acquire this predisposition if there is nothing
       | intrinsic in the mathematics or hardware? The answer is "through
       | evolution" which is just an alternative optimization procedure.
        
         | cowpig wrote:
         | There are also many biological examples of evolution producing
         | "anti-social" outcomes. Many creatures are not social. Most
         | creatures are not social with respect to human goals.
        
           | nyrikki wrote:
           | There is a reason we don't allow corvids to choose if a
           | person gets a medical treatment or not.
        
           | b00ty4breakfast wrote:
           | Luckily, this is a discussion of humans.
        
             | fmbb wrote:
             | This is a discussion about large language models.
        
         | Terr_ wrote:
         | > just an alternative optimization procedure
         | 
         | This "just" is... not-incorrect, but also not really
         | actionable/relevant.
         | 
         | 1. LLMs aren't a fully genetic algorithm exploring the space of
         | all possible "neuron" architectures. The "social" capabilities
         | we want may not be possible to acquire through the weight-based
         | stuff going on now.
         | 
         | 2. In biological life, a big part of that is detecting "thing
         | like me", for finding a mate, kin-selection, etc. We _do not
         | want_ our LLM-driven systems to discriminate against actual
         | humans in favor of similar systems. (In practice, this problem
         | already exists.)
         | 
         | 3. The humans involved making/selling them will never spend the
         | necessary money to do it.
         | 
         | 4. Even with investment, the number of iterations and years
         | involved to get the same "optimization" result may be
         | excessive.
        
           | fweimer wrote:
           | While I don't disagree about (2), my experience suggests that
           | LLMs are biased towards generating code for future
           | maintenance by LLMs. Unless instructed otherwise, they avoid
           | abstractions that reduce repetitive patterns and would help
           | future human maintainers. The capitalist environment of LLMs
           | seems to encourage such traits, too.
           | 
           | (Apart from that, I'm generally suspect of evolution-based
           | arguments because they are often structurally identical to
           | saying "God willed it, so it must true".)
        
             | bigfishrunning wrote:
             | I think they're biased toward code that will convince you
             | to check a box and say "ok this is fine". The reason they
             | avoid abstraction is it requires some thought and design,
             | neither of which are things that LLMs can really do. but
             | take a simple pattern and repeat it, and you're right in an
             | LLM's wheelhouse.
        
           | Imnimo wrote:
           | Why should we think that pro-social capabilities are simply
           | not expressible by weight-based ANN architectures?
        
             | Terr_ wrote:
             | The burden of proof lies is in the other direction, when
             | you consider the wide range of other seemingly-simpler
             | goals which are proving intractable under the architecture.
             | 
             | Even the best possible tuning for "pro-social" is going to
             | fail spectacularly when someone twists the LLM's dream
             | story-document into a tale of how an underdog protects
             | "their" people through virtuous sabotage and assassination
             | of evil overlords.
        
         | pants2 wrote:
         | This Veritasium video is excellent, and makes the argument that
         | there _is_ something intrinsic in mathematics (game theory)
         | that encourages prosocial behavior.
         | 
         | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mScpHTIi-kM
        
         | miltonlost wrote:
         | "just" is doing a lot of lifting here
        
         | order-matters wrote:
         | natural selection. cooperation is a dominant strategy in
         | indefinitely repeating games of the prisoners dilemma, for
         | example. We also have to mate and care for our young for a very
         | long time, and while it may be true that individuals can get
         | away with not being nice about this, we have had to be largely
         | nice about it as a whole to get to where we are.
         | 
         | while under the umbrella of evolution, if you really want to
         | boil it down to an optimization procedure then at the very
         | least you need to accurately model human emotion, which is
         | wildly inconsistent, and our selection bias for mating. If you
         | can do that, then you might as well go take-over the online
         | dating market
        
         | almostdeadguy wrote:
         | There's a funny tendency among AI enthusiasts to think any
         | contrast to humans is analogy in disguise.
         | 
         | Putting aside malicious actors, the analogy here means
         | benevolent actors could spend _more_ time and money training AI
         | models to behave pro-socially than than evolutionary pressures
         | put on humanity. After all, they control the that optimization
         | procedure! So we shouldn't be able to point to examples of
         | frontier models engaging in malicious behavior, right?
        
         | fmbb wrote:
         | Well, through natural selection in nature.
         | 
         | Large language models are not evolving in nature under natural
         | selection. They are evolving under unnatural selection and not
         | optimizing for human survival.
         | 
         | They are also not human.
         | 
         | Tigers, hippos and SARS-CoV-2 also developed "through
         | evolution". That does not make them safe to work around.
        
           | Imnimo wrote:
           | >Tigers, hippos and SARS-CoV-2 also developed "through
           | evolution". That does not make them safe to work around.
           | 
           | Right, but the article seems to argue that there is some
           | important distinction between natural brains and trained LLMs
           | with respect to "niceness":
           | 
           | >OpenAI has enormous teams of people who spend time talking
           | to LLMs, evaluating what they say, and adjusting weights to
           | make them nice. They also build secondary LLMs which double-
           | check that the core LLM is not telling people how to build
           | pipe bombs. Both of these things are optional and expensive.
           | All it takes to get an unaligned model is for an unscrupulous
           | entity to train one and not do that work--or to do it poorly.
           | 
           | As you point out, nature offers no more of a guarantee here.
           | There is nothing magical about evolution that promises to
           | produce things that are nice to humans. Natural human
           | niceness is a product of the optimization objectives of
           | evolution, just as LLM niceness is a product of the training
           | objectives and data. If the author believes that evolution
           | was able to produce something robustly "nice", there's good
           | reason to believe the same can be achieved by gradient
           | descent.
        
             | fmbb wrote:
             | We already have humans, we were lucky and evolved into what
             | we are. It does not matter that nature did not guarantee
             | this, we are here now.
             | 
             | Large language models are not under evolutionary pressure
             | and not evolving like we or other animals did.
             | 
             | Of course there is nothing technical in the way preventing
             | humans from creating a "nice" computer program. Hello world
             | is a testament to that and it's everywhere, implemented in
             | all the world's programming languages.
             | 
             | > If the author believes that evolution was able to produce
             | something robustly "nice", there's good reason to believe
             | the same can be achieved by gradient descent.
             | 
             | I don't see how one means there is any reason, good or not,
             | to believe it is likely to be achieved by gradient descent.
             | But note that the quote you copied says it is likely some
             | entity will train misaligned LLMs, not that it is
             | impossible one aligned model can be produced. It is trivial
             | to show that nice and safe computer programs can be
             | constructed.
             | 
             | The real question is if the optimization game that is
             | capitalism is likely to yield anything like the human kind
             | we just lucked out to get from nature.
        
           | saxelsen wrote:
           | They are being selected for their survival potential, though.
           | Any current version of LLMs are the winners of the training
           | selection process. They will "die" once new generations are
           | trained that supercede them.
        
       | dgfl wrote:
       | The issue with most of these articles is that they seem to
       | demonize the technology, and systematically use demeaning
       | language about all of its facets. This one raises a lot of
       | important points about LLMs, but the only real conclusion it
       | seems to make is "LLMs are bad! We should never build them!".
       | This is obviously unrealistic. The cat is out of the bag. And
       | we're not _actually_ talking about nuclear weapons here. This
       | technology is useful, and coding agents are just the first
       | example of it. I can easily see a near future where everyone has
       | a Jarvis-like secretary always available; it's only a cost and
       | harness problem. And since this vision is very clear to most who
       | have spent enough time with the latest agents, millions of people
       | across the globe are trying to work towards this.
       | 
       | I do think that safety is important. I'm particularly concerned
       | about vulnerable people and sycophantic behavior. But I think
       | it's better not to be a luddite. I will give a positively biased
       | view because the article already presents a strongly negative
       | stance. Two remarks:
       | 
       | > Alignment is a Joke
       | 
       | True, but for a different reason. Modern LLMs clearly don't have
       | a strong sense of direction or intrinsic goals. That's perfect
       | for what we need to do with them! But when a group of people
       | aligns one to their own interest, they may imprint a stance which
       | other groups may not like (which this article confusingly calls
       | "unaligned model", even though it's perfectly aligned with its
       | creators' intent). People unaligned with your values have always
       | existed and will always exist. This is just another tool they can
       | use. If they're truly against you, they'll develop it whether you
       | want it or not. I guess I'm in the camp of people that have
       | decided that those harmful capabilities are inevitable, as the
       | article directly addresses.
       | 
       | > LLMs change the cost balance for malicious attackers, enabling
       | new scales of sophisticated, targeted security attacks, fraud,
       | and harassment. Models can produce text and imagery that is
       | difficult for humans to bear; I expect an increased burden to
       | fall on moderators.
       | 
       | What about the new scales of sophisticated defenses that they
       | will enable? And for a simple solution to avoid the produced text
       | and imagery: don't go online so much? We already all sort of
       | agree that social media is bad for society. If we make it
       | completely unusable, I think we will all have to gain for it. If
       | digital stops having any value, perhaps we'll finally go back to
       | valuing local communities and offline hobbies for children. What
       | if this is our wakeup call?
        
         | throw4847285 wrote:
         | Thanks LLM!
        
           | dgfl wrote:
           | lol. I did use a lot of short sentences, that's my bad. But
           | please read through [1] and compare my text onto it, it may
           | enlighten you on how to actually spot llm writing.
           | 
           | [1]
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Signs_of_AI_writing
        
             | throw4847285 wrote:
             | Oh no, I'm sorry to hear that.
             | 
             | For the future, try to avoid prevaricating when you
             | actually have a clear sense of what you want to argue.
             | Instead of convincing me that you've weighed both options
             | and found luddism wanting, you just come off as dishonest.
             | If you think stridently, write stridently.
        
               | dgfl wrote:
               | I'm not a native speaker and you may find my writing
               | simplistic if your standard vocabulary includes three
               | expressions I've had to look up (I don't mean this as an
               | insult, I was just genuinely stumped I could barely
               | understand your comment).
               | 
               | I may think stridently (debatable) but I generally
               | believe it is best to always try to meet in the middle if
               | the goal is genuine discussion. This is my attempt at
               | that.
        
               | throw4847285 wrote:
               | But meeting in the middle only works if you honestly
               | believe the middle is a valuable place to be. I don't
               | want to dissect your writing too much, but let's look at
               | one example.
               | 
               | > The issue with most of these articles is that they seem
               | to demonize the technology, and systematically use
               | demeaning language about all of its facets.
               | 
               | This is very confident, strident language. You clearly
               | believe that there is a faction of people demonizing
               | technology, akin to luddites, who are not worthy of being
               | taken seriously.
               | 
               | > This one raises a lot of important points about LLMs,
               | but...
               | 
               | So here you go for the rhetorical device of weighing the
               | opposing view. Except, you don't weight it at all. You
               | are not at all specific about what those points are. It's
               | just a way to signal that you're being thoughtful without
               | having to actually engage with the opposing viewpoint.
               | 
               | > I do think that safety is important... But I think it's
               | better not to be a luddite.
               | 
               | Again, the rhetoric of moderation but not at all moderate
               | in content.
               | 
               | It was a clear mistake to think that this was LLM
               | writing. But I suspect the reason I made this mistake is
               | that AI writing influences people to mimic surface level
               | aspects of its style. AI writing tends to actually do the
               | "You might say A is true, but B has some valid points,
               | however A is ultimately correct." Your writing seems like
               | that if you aren't reading it closely, but underneath
               | that is a very human self-assuredness with a thin veneer
               | of charitability.
        
           | eks391 wrote:
           | Which LLMisms are you seeing in their post? Their grammar,
           | word choice, thought flow, and markings all denote a fully
           | human authorship to me, so confidently that I would say they
           | likely didn't even consult an LLM.
        
             | throw4847285 wrote:
             | Yeah I definitely misread their post.
        
         | simianwords wrote:
         | > This one raises a lot of important points about LLMs, but the
         | only real conclusion it seems to make is "LLMs are bad! We
         | should never build them!".
         | 
         | I think the point was never to bring a solution or show any
         | essence of reality. The point was being polemical and
         | signalling savviness through cynicism.
        
       | cowpig wrote:
       | > I think it's likely (at least in the short term) that we all
       | pay the burden of increased fraud: higher credit card fees,
       | higher insurance premiums, a less accurate court system, more
       | dangerous roads, lower wages, and so on.
       | 
       | I think the author is brushing against some larger system issues
       | that are already in motion, and that the way AI is being rolled
       | out are exacerbating, as opposed to a root cause of.
       | 
       | There's a felony fraudster running the executive branch of the
       | US, and it takes a lot of political resources to get someone
       | elected president.
        
       | philipkglass wrote:
       | _In short, the ML industry is creating the conditions under which
       | anyone with sufficient funds can train an unaligned model. Rather
       | than raise the bar against malicious AI, ML companies have
       | lowered it._
       | 
       | This is true, and I believe that the "sufficient funds" threshold
       | will keep dropping too. It's a relief more than a concern,
       | because I don't trust that big models from American or Chinese
       | labs will always be aligned with what I need. There are probably
       | a lot of people in the world whose interests are not especially
       | aligned with the interests of the current AI research leaders.
       | 
       | "Don't turn the visible universe into paperclips" is a
       | practically universal "good alignment" but the models we have
       | can't do that anyhow. The actual refusal-guards that frontier
       | models come with are a lot more culturally/historically
       | contingent and less universal. Lumping them all under "safety"
       | presupposes the outcome of a debate that has been philosophically
       | unresolved forever. If we get hundreds of strong models from
       | different groups all over the world, I think that it will improve
       | the net utility of AI and disarm the possibility of one lab or a
       | small cartel using it to control the rest of us.
        
         | pixl97 wrote:
         | I mean that does partially reduce the chances of a cartel, but
         | not really near as likely as you think.
         | 
         | Most countries have a pretty strong ban on most kinds of
         | weapons, the US is one of the few that lets everyone run around
         | with their rooty tooty point and shooty, but most countries
         | have implemented bans. Some because the government doesn't want
         | the people having them, and in others the citizens call for the
         | bans because they don't like the idea of getting shot by their
         | fellow citizens.
         | 
         | It won't be long before citizens and governments get tired of
         | models being used for criminal activities and will eventually
         | lay down laws around this. Models will have to be registered
         | and safety tested, strict criminal prosecution will happen if
         | you don't. And the big model companies will back their favorite
         | politicians to ensure this will happen to.
         | 
         | Now, that in general will be helpful as there will still be
         | more models, but it will still not be a free for all.
        
         | alfalfasprout wrote:
         | Well, part of the problem too is there's zero accountability.
         | Who decides what it means to be aligned and how does that
         | evolve over time?
         | 
         | No matter what, common people are quickly losing agency in that
         | discussion.
        
       | nzoschke wrote:
       | Excellent articles as expected from aphyr.
       | 
       | I'm seeing that these tools are extremely powerful the hands of
       | experts that already understand software engineering, security,
       | observability, and system reliability / safety.
       | 
       | And extremely dangerous in the hands of people that don't
       | understand any of this.
       | 
       | Perhaps reality of economics and safety will kick in, and
       | inexperienced people will stop making expensive and dangerous
       | mistakes.
        
         | mursu wrote:
         | The future is happening. Instead of trying to raise awareness
         | about evil AI... I think it would be more healthy if we could
         | direct this energy to ways of improving the situation without
         | condemning the unknown of AI evolution. As with anything..
         | there will be a bad side.. The bad guys will always be there..
         | be it AI or soccer matches.. should we stop developing nuclear
         | energy because nuclear weapons are developed?
        
           | fmbb wrote:
           | There is no natural law saying the good sides of any kind of
           | tech will outweigh any bad sides.
           | 
           | "The future" is happening because it is allowed in our
           | current legal framework and because investors want to make it
           | happen. It is not "happening" because it is good or desirable
           | or unavoidable.
        
       | conquera_ai wrote:
       | Feels like we're repeating classic distributed systems lessons:
       | assume failure, constrain blast radiusand never trust components
       | that can't explain themselves reliably
        
         | ibrahimhossain wrote:
         | Exactly assuming failure and constraining the blast radius
         | feels like the only reliable path when the models themselves
         | are black boxes. Patch based alignment starts looking fragile
         | pretty quickly
        
       | simianwords wrote:
       | The author is still grieving by watching a civilisation changing
       | technology just passing by. Every single one of the problems they
       | note applies to any technology that existed.
       | 
       | The internet produced 4chan. Produced scammers. Produced fraud.
       | Instrumental in spreading child porn. Caused suicides. Many
       | people lost their lives due to bullying on the internet. Many
       | develop have addictions to gaming.
       | 
       | To anyone who has given it some thought, any sufficiently
       | advanced technology usually affects both in good and bad ways.
       | Its obvious that something that increases degrees of freedom in
       | one direction will do so in others. Humans come in and align it.
       | 
       | There's some social credit to gain by being cynical and by
       | signalling this cynicism. In the current social dynamics - being
       | cynical gives you an edge and makes you look savvy. The
       | optimistic appear naive but the pessimists appear as if they
       | truly understand the situation. But the optimists are usually
       | correct in hindsight.
       | 
       | We know how the internet turned out despite pessimists flagging
       | potential problems with it. I know how AI will turn out. These
       | kind of articles will be a dime a dozen and we will look at it
       | the same way as we look at now at bygone internet-pessimists.
       | 
       | This is response not just to this article, but a few others.
        
         | raincole wrote:
         | I think you underestimate people's grievance with technology.
         | If you make a poll my guess is more than 50% of people will say
         | the world was a better place pre-social media.
         | 
         | If the AI tech keeps going at the direction it's going now,
         | more and more people will start believing the world would be
         | better if the internet and computer had never been invented.
         | 
         | You talk like the internet being a net positive is a given. It
         | really isn't, especially after it's proven that it doesn't
         | democratize power (see Arab Spring, and China, and the US, and
         | everywhere.)
        
           | simianwords wrote:
           | Its usually the educated and elite PMC types who have
           | grievance with technology. They secured their status and have
           | lucrative jobs mostly with the help of technology and they
           | are too scared to have anything threaten their position in
           | society. It is highly hypocritical to behave this way but
           | they don't seem to have the self awareness to observe it
           | objectively.
           | 
           | Ask any poor person in India what their sentiment is with
           | tech - it is usually optimism.
           | 
           | > You talk like the internet being a net positive is a given.
           | It really isn't, especially after it's proven that it doesn't
           | democratize power (see Arab Spring, and China, and the US,
           | and everywhere.)
           | 
           | The world is far more democratic now than before and I
           | attribute it to technology because it reduces information
           | asymmetry.
        
             | raincole wrote:
             | > The world is far more democratic now than before and I
             | attribute it to technology because it reduces information
             | asymmetry
             | 
             | That is fantasy. Information technology has created an
             | unprecedented level of information asymmetry and the gap is
             | widening everyday as the total computing capacity grows.
             | 
             | Before information era, the ruling class was roughly as
             | blind as peasants. Population census took years, and
             | sometimes outright impossible. The opaqueness was two-way.
             | Now it's one way - people in power know everything about
             | the citizens.
        
               | simianwords wrote:
               | Take two countries. One with open access to information
               | in the way you described and another country where
               | internet is not allowed. Which one do you think will be
               | more democratic?
               | 
               | (hint: there already exist examples like such)
               | 
               | Without information, there is no way a voter may know
               | which person to vote for and whether to believe in them
               | at all and you are easily susceptible towards
               | manipulation.
               | 
               | It will become more clear when you try to answer this
               | hypothetical: if your objective were to bring in more
               | democracy in North Korea, would you allow the global
               | internet to proliferate if you could? According to your
               | theory, it would just make it worse in general.
        
         | slopinthebag wrote:
         | > We know how the internet turned out despite pessimists
         | flagging potential problems with it.
         | 
         | A sludge of spyware and addiction machines which employ
         | negative emotion and outrage to drive shareholder value?
         | 
         | "The internet" is a pretty big tent. Everything from text
         | messages to streaming video to online gaming to social media to
         | encyclopedias. I think 15 years ago you could make a strong
         | case that the internet was mostly a net positive, I think now
         | that is much more difficult. If governments are able to fully
         | realise their plans for surveillance and control, it will
         | almost certainly become a net negative. Of course with many
         | positive aspects.
         | 
         | So likewise with AI, we should be careful to not make the same
         | mistakes as we did with the internet so we can realise
         | something that is mostly positive. We could absolutely have a
         | world where AI is as beneficial as you believe it will be, but
         | we don't get there through inaction, we get there by being
         | deeply critical of the negative aspects of AI and ensuring that
         | we don't let a small number of hyper scalers control our access
         | to it.
        
           | simianwords wrote:
           | No internet is not a net negative now. I can't believe I have
           | to say this.
        
             | slopinthebag wrote:
             | Prove it.
        
             | recursive wrote:
             | You don't _have_ to say it, but if you want to make that
             | case, it would probably help.
        
       | jagged-chisel wrote:
       | "Alignment"
       | 
       | In what world would I ever expect a commercial (or governmental)
       | entity to have precise alignment with me personally, or even with
       | my own business? I argue those relationships are necessarily
       | adversarial, and trusting anyone else to align their "AI" tool to
       | my goals, needs, and/or desires is a recipe for having my
       | livelihood completely reassigned into someone else's wallet.
        
         | sigbottle wrote:
         | Interesting you single out commercial and government entities
         | but not people. What defines the difference? Bureaucracy?
         | Concentration of resources? Legal theory?
         | 
         | I guess I'm trying to wonder why this line of thinking (in
         | theory) doesn't turn to paranoia about everybody. I don't know
         | much ethics or political theory or anything.
        
           | jagged-chisel wrote:
           | > ... paranoia about everybody
           | 
           | It does. People drive these entities. People hide behind the
           | liability shields and authority of these entities. Also
           | notice that I generalized with the phrase "...and trusting
           | anyone..."
        
           | robot-wrangler wrote:
           | You can tell that broad alignment between people is natural
           | just by looking at the effort that corporations and
           | governments make to undermine it. Alignment between people is
           | perhaps not a _state of nature_ , but it really is a pretty
           | normal consequence of a fairly small amount of education and
           | of middle-class existence that is left to itself (i.e.
           | without brain-washing and deliberately working to create out-
           | groups). If you're eating enough and have a few brain cells
           | to rub together, then you definitely want that for your
           | neighbors too because it promotes stability.
        
             | zozbot234 wrote:
             | > You can tell that broad alignment between people is
             | natural
             | 
             | It really isn't. The whole point of the market system is to
             | collectively align people's actions towards a shared target
             | of "Pareto-optimized total welfare". And even then the
             | alignment is approximate and heavily constrained due to a
             | combination of transaction costs (which also account for
             | e.g. externalities) and information asymmetries. But
             | transaction costs and information asymmetries apply to
             | _any_ system of alignment, including non-market ones. The
             | market (augmented with some pre-determined legal assignment
             | of property rights, potentially including quite complex
             | bundles of rules and regulations) is still your best bet.
        
               | dns_snek wrote:
               | Broad alignment =/= Wealth maximization.
        
               | _DeadFred_ wrote:
               | The market aligned us with children working in sweat
               | shops after we outlawed it by convincing us it was OK if
               | it was foreign kids and we got to share in pocketing the
               | savings not just the evil factory owner.
        
               | jasonwatkinspdx wrote:
               | Please read David Graeber.
               | 
               | What you describe is factually not how human society
               | formed.
        
               | zozbot234 wrote:
               | AIUI David Graeber famously pointed out that people in
               | small groups can form the equivalent of a "market" simply
               | by exchanging favours ("I'll scratch your back if you
               | scratch mine") in an informal gift economy, without any
               | money-like token or external unit of account. That's
               | quite in line with what I said.
        
               | jasonwatkinspdx wrote:
               | You understanding is mistaken. Graeber's "everyday
               | communism" is not a market, and his whole larger point is
               | that contorting everything to the lens of markets is
               | simply ahistorical and unempirical.
               | 
               | I'd strongly suggest reading his books. They profoundly
               | changed my understanding of how human institutions and
               | society form.
        
               | zozbot234 wrote:
               | Unless it's some sort of complete post-scarcity, it has
               | to be understandable in market terms. What happens if
               | people try to free-ride on the whole "communist" system?
               | If they get excluded from its benefits, that's equivalent
               | to enforcing some bundle of property rights.
        
               | jasonwatkinspdx wrote:
               | > Unless it's some sort of complete post-scarcity, it has
               | to be understandable in market terms.
               | 
               | No, it does not, and that's Graeber's whole point.
               | 
               | "Markets" are not some sort of physical law of the
               | universe.
               | 
               | A simple example of this is it's the norm in hunter
               | gatherer societies to take care of people who never will
               | make an equal contribution back in the transactional
               | sense.
               | 
               | Because the social ties in those societies are not simply
               | transactions.
               | 
               | If your model fails to accurately describe empirical
               | reality, time to improve/expand the model.
        
               | zozbot234 wrote:
               | These social ties are real (they are a kind of wealth, or
               | social capital, for the persons involved) but they're
               | also limited to very small social groups, the equivalent
               | of a modern small village neighborhood or HOA. The point
               | of the market is that it scales well beyond those.
        
               | mcmcmc wrote:
               | Translating every aspect of human existence into some
               | kind of "capital" is deeply unhealthy.
        
               | sdenton4 wrote:
               | You're not even wrong, as they say... I'm tempted to add
               | 'seeing like a state' to your reading list.
               | 
               | "Understandable in market terms" doesn't mean the thing
               | is actually understood, and in fact may be dangerously
               | misunderstood.
        
               | robot-wrangler wrote:
               | > it has to be understandable in market terms
               | 
               | I like economics and math too, but the whole discussion
               | of markets is a terrible starting place for deriving
               | results in ethics/psychology. If you insist though,
               | notice that unions will happen unless some other
               | organization is working to prevent them. What do you
               | suppose this means? People are aligned with each other
               | exactly because they've noticed their coworkers are _not_
               | corporations or governments.
               | 
               | Although the two are entangled, politics is a more
               | relevant framing than economics here. If people weren't
               | broadly aligned on basic stuff, then autocrats,
               | theocrats, kleptocrats and so on would simply not be
               | interested in dismantling democracies. They make that
               | effort because they must.
        
               | zozbot234 wrote:
               | > the whole discussion of markets is a terrible starting
               | place for deriving results in ethics/psychology.
               | 
               | Historically, we did essentially the opposite. We figured
               | out many aspects of human ethics and psychology first,
               | and deduced from them how and why markets work as they
               | do.
               | 
               | > ... If people weren't broadly aligned on basic stuff,
               | then autocrats, theocrats, kleptocrats and so on would
               | simply not be interested in dismantling democracies. They
               | make that effort because they must.
               | 
               | This implies that people are only _weakly_ aligned in the
               | first place, otherwise no such attempt at dismantling
               | could ever succeed. That 's not a very interesting claim;
               | it does not refute the usefulness of some external
               | mechanism to more directly foster aligned action. Markets
               | do this with a maximum of decentralized power and a
               | minimum of institutional mechanism.
        
               | jasonwatkinspdx wrote:
               | > Historically
               | 
               | This is not the history, it is a mythology in opposition
               | to the empirical evidence.
               | 
               | Which is why you should read Graeber.
        
             | JumpCrisscross wrote:
             | > _broad alignment between people is natural_
             | 
             | Uh, what? People have been killing each other over values
             | misalignments since there have been people. We invented
             | civilization in part to protect our farms and granaries
             | from people who disagreed with us on whose grain was in
             | said granaries.
        
               | bluefirebrand wrote:
               | We would never have even reached "farms and granaries" if
               | alignment between people didn't happen pretty naturally
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | Fair enough. We are a social species. But those
               | alignments occur in small groups. You don't need effort
               | by "corporations and governments" for nations of millions
               | of people to schism. If anything, those large
               | institutions _drive_ broad-based alignment.
        
               | uoaei wrote:
               | Methinks you've been sitting in your armchair too long.
               | 
               | Broad-based alignment doesn't come from nothing, but it
               | is surprisingly easy to achieve when a population
               | recognizes a shared stake. A synthesis between
               | selfishness and altruism emerges when you consider who
               | you can call a "neighbor".
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | > _it is surprisingly easy to achieve when a population
               | recognizes a shared stake_
               | 
               | Sure. But it takes work for anything larger than a small,
               | close-knit community. I'm pushing back on the notion that
               | this comes naturally and is a default state. It's not, at
               | least not relative to people naturally forming in and out
               | groups.
               | 
               | The armchair commenters are probably folks who have never
               | organized a group of people before outside a commercial
               | context.
        
               | uoaei wrote:
               | You might be treating "neighbor" too literally. People
               | understand the global nature of the limits on resources
               | and by extension the world economy better every year. The
               | boundary of who shares 'stake' grows likewise.
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | > _boundary of who shares 'stake' grows likewise_
               | 
               | But that shared stakeholding doesn't naturally drive
               | alignment. You need journalists, fiction writers,
               | organizers and delegates. Travel and curiosity. These
               | each take effort, resources and organization. It's
               | something we do well. But it isn't spontaneous in the way
               | small-group kinship is--it literally emerges if you put
               | people in proximity.
        
               | dns_snek wrote:
               | Critical bit:
               | 
               | > _i.e. without brain-washing and deliberately working to
               | create out-groups_
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | And if my grandmother had wheels she'd be a bicycle. The
               | process of creating an in group naturally creates out
               | groups. The "brainwashing" OP describes is just as
               | natural as social alignment through an innate drive for
               | conformity.
        
               | cwmoore wrote:
               | Conformity I think follows the innate drive to coerce the
               | nonconformant into compliance
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | Sure. Push and pull. The point is that needs effort to
               | work at larger scales. We don't "naturally" organize into
               | nations of three hundred million or a billion. To the
               | extent we do, we also "naturally" go to war.
        
               | pineaux wrote:
               | There is a pretty interesting study of a large group of
               | chimps. I dont remember where exactly but they have been
               | civil warring the last 15 years or so. Point is, it seems
               | that there is some kind of innate group formation
               | process.
        
               | robot-wrangler wrote:
               | Couldn't read the next sentence before wading in, huh?
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | > _Couldn 't read the next sentence before wading in,
               | huh?_
               | 
               | Whatever the difference between naturalness and a state
               | of nature, it has nothing to do with education or middle-
               | class existence.
        
           | MaulingMonkey wrote:
           | > Interesting you single out commercial and government
           | entities but not people. What defines the difference?
           | Bureaucracy? Concentration of resources? Legal theory?
           | 
           | Not OP, but for me, kind family and friends, and various
           | feel-good pieces of fiction and other writing, at least let
           | me _envision_ the possibility of a perfectly kind
           | /dedicated/innocent/naieve individual who is truly on my side
           | 100%. But even that is mostly imagination and fiction...
           | although convincing others of that isn't necessairly an
           | argument worth making.
           | 
           | Commercial entities have a fundamental purpouse of profit.
           | While profit doesn't have to be a zero-sum game - ideally,
           | everyone benefits in a somewhat balanced way - there's some
           | fundamental tension, in that each party's profit is
           | necessairly limited by the other party's.
           | 
           | Government entities have a fundamental purpouse of executing
           | the will of the state, which is rather explicitly not the
           | same thing as the will of you as an individual.
           | 
           | Both commercial and government entities also tend to involve
           | multiple people, which gets statistics working against you -
           | you really gathered that many people who would put your needs
           | above their own, with exactly zero "imposters" - which in
           | this context just means people with a bit of rational self
           | interest?
           | 
           | > I guess I'm trying to wonder why this line of thinking (in
           | theory) doesn't turn to paranoia about everybody. I don't
           | know much ethics or political theory or anything.
           | 
           | Just because you're paranoid, doesn't mean they aren't out to
           | get you. Trust, but verify.
           | 
           | You might not be able to put absolute blind trust in anybody.
           | I certainly can't. However, one can hedge one's bets, and
           | diversify trust. Build social circles of people with good
           | character, good judgement, and calm temperments - and
           | statistics will start working for you. It's unlikely they'll
           | all conspire to betray you simultaniously, especially if
           | you've ensured betrayal costs much and gains little. While
           | petty and jealous people can indeed be irrational enough to
           | betray under such circumstances, it'll be harder for them to
           | create the kind of conspiracy necessary for mass betrayal
           | that might cause significant enough damage to warrant proper
           | paranoia. You might still have to watch out for gaslighters
           | stealing credit (document your work!) and framing people
           | (document your character!) and other such dishonest and
           | manipulative behavior... but if _everyone 's_ looking out for
           | the same thing, well, that's just everyone looking out for
           | everyone else! That's a community looking out for each other,
           | and holding everyone honest and accountable. Most find
           | comfort in that, rather than the stress paranoia implies.
           | 
           | Put yourself in a room full of manipulators and schemers, on
           | the other hand, and "parnoia about everyone" might be the
           | only reasonable or rational response!
        
             | zozbot234 wrote:
             | > each party's profit is necessairly limited by the other
             | party's
             | 
             | Profit is obtained by maximizing traded benefits and
             | minimizing costs. None of this requires taking anything
             | away from any other party.
        
               | bigbadfeline wrote:
               | > Profit is obtained by maximizing traded benefits and
               | minimizing costs.
               | 
               | Gain is obtained by the easiest means available. Your
               | narrow definition of profit is seldom the easiest,
               | cheating is far "superior" especially when it's legal for
               | some.
               | 
               | > None of this requires taking anything away from any
               | other party.
               | 
               | "required" and "preferred" (e.g. because it's far easier)
               | are different like night and day.
        
             | bitwize wrote:
             | > But even that is mostly imagination and fiction...
             | although convincing others of that isn't necessairly an
             | argument worth making.
             | 
             | There was a Japanese visual novel in the 2000s about a girl
             | who was your personal maid, and was so devoted would always
             | take your side in any conflict, accept and support you just
             | the way you are, even if you were a horrid person to your
             | friends. It turns out she was a ghost, or a kind of yokai,
             | or something. Anyhoo, back on 2ch she attracted a fandom,
             | and there was a second group of people on 2ch who labelled
             | her a "useless person manufacturer" because if you actually
             | had a person who always accepted you _just the way you are_
             | and never pushed back, that can be actually a trap that
             | prevents you from developing.
             | 
             | It's a theme that's relevant today when people have AI
             | servitors that always glaze them. It puts even certain
             | utopian AI fiction, like Richard Stallman's story "Made for
             | You", into a whole new light.
        
               | a_t48 wrote:
               | Which VN is this?
        
               | bitwize wrote:
               | It was called Suigetsu
        
           | dgb23 wrote:
           | The issue is power.
           | 
           | I'm not an expert in political theory or ethics either, but
           | in my worldview, power relationships matter in these
           | discussions. I believe power and responsibility should go
           | hand in hand, and I hold entities to a standard that is
           | proportional to their power to influence others lives.
           | 
           | If an entity's power is decentralized, for example when it is
           | democratically organized to some degree, then that disperses
           | both power and responsibility.
        
           | rockskon wrote:
           | Incentives and resources to promote said incentives.
        
         | __MatrixMan__ wrote:
         | You could expect such a thing in a world where consent was
         | currency, rather than scarcity.
        
         | tyrust wrote:
         | > precise alignment with me personally, or even with my own
         | business
         | 
         | Seems like a strawman, I don't think anyone means this when
         | talking about alignment.
         | 
         | More general goals, like avoiding paperclip maximization, are
         | broadly applicable to humanity.
        
           | zozbot234 wrote:
           | If you've built an agent that can act even vaguely close to a
           | paperclip maximizer, you've already solved 99.999% or more of
           | the alignment problem. The hard part of alignment so far is
           | getting the AI to _do_ something useful in pursuit of the
           | right goal, and not just waste energy. We still have no idea
           | how to do this with any effectiveness: even modern  "RL from
           | verified feedback" systems are effectively toys, the
           | equivalent of playing video games, not really of doing
           | something useful in the real world.
        
         | seizethecheese wrote:
         | Why would relationships with a commercial entity be
         | "necessarily adversarial"? A commercial relationship depends on
         | the product providing more utility than the cost (for the
         | consumer) and providing more revenue than cost (for the
         | commercial entity). This means that while some components of
         | the relationship may be adversarial in some areas, it cannot
         | really be entirely adversarial.
        
           | apsurd wrote:
           | I think we're living in times where the one place that this
           | doesn't hold is now somehow all legal: addiction.
        
       | themafia wrote:
       | > They also build secondary LLMs which double-check that the core
       | LLM is not telling people how to build pipe bombs
       | 
       | Such a fear mongering position. You can learn to build pipe bombs
       | already. Take any chemical reaction that produces gas and heat
       | and contain it. Congratulations, you have a pipe bomb.
       | 
       | Meanwhile.. just.. ask an LLM if you can mix certain cleaning
       | chemicals safely.
       | 
       | > I see four moats that could prevent this from happening.
       | 
       | Really? Because you just said:
       | 
       | > human brains, which are biologically predisposed to acquire
       | prosocial behavior
       | 
       | You think you're going to constrain _human_ behavior by twiddling
       | with the language models? This is foolishly naive to an extreme.
       | 
       | If you put basic and well understood human considerations before
       | corporate ones then reality is far easier to predict.
        
         | bigfishrunning wrote:
         | > Meanwhile.. just.. ask an LLM if you can mix certain cleaning
         | chemicals safely.
         | 
         | the cost of the wrong answer to this question is so incredibly
         | high that I hope nobody is sincerely asking an LLM for this
         | information. The things people trust to "machine that gives
         | convincing answers that are correct 90% of the time" continue
         | to shock me
        
           | themafia wrote:
           | > is so incredibly high that I hope nobody is sincerely
           | asking an LLM for this information
           | 
           | Google trumps the search results with it's LLM box. There's
           | only one reason to do that. They know their audience is not
           | engaging in discretion.
           | 
           | > The things people trust to "machine that gives convincing
           | answers that are correct 90% of the time" continue to shock
           | me
           | 
           | People are having intimate relationships with chat bots.
           | There's a deeper sociological problem here.
        
       | atleastoptimal wrote:
       | There really are only 3 options that don't involve human
       | destruction:
       | 
       | 1. AI becomes a highly protected technology, a totalitarian world
       | government retains a monopoly on its powers and enforces use, and
       | offers it to those with preexisting connections: permanent
       | underclass outcome
       | 
       | 2. Somehow the world agrees to stop building AI and keep tech in
       | many fields at a permanent pre-2026 level: soft butlerian jihad
       | 
       | 3. Futurama: somehow we get ASI and a magical balance of
       | weirdness and dance of continual disruption keeps apocalypse in
       | check and we accept a constant steady-state transformation
       | without paperclipocalypse
        
         | raincole wrote:
         | In other words, only one option.
        
         | tomjen3 wrote:
         | This makes the assumption that AI will lead to the apocalypse.
         | That's unfalsifiable, predicted about plenty of things in the
         | past, and frankly annoying to keep seeing pop up.
         | 
         | Its like listening to Christians talking about the rapture.
        
           | atleastoptimal wrote:
           | The problem is that if someone is right about an existential
           | disaster caused by AI, by the time they're proven right it
           | would be too late.
           | 
           | Frontier AI models get smarter every year, humans but humans
           | don't get any smarter year over year. If you don't believe
           | that somehow AI will just suddenly stop getting better (which
           | is as much a faith-based gamble as assuming some rapturous
           | outcome for AI by default), then you'd have to assume that at
           | some point AI will surpass human intelligence in all fields,
           | and the _keep going_. In that case human minds and overall
           | will will be onconsequential compared to that of AI.
        
             | zozbot234 wrote:
             | Frontier AI models get evaluated for safety precisely to
             | avert the "AI robot uprising causes an existential
             | disaster" scenario. At the moment we are light years away
             | from anything like that ever happening, and that's after we
             | literally tried our best to LARP that very scenario into
             | existence with things like moltbook and OpenClaw.
        
         | nyc_data_geek1 wrote:
         | Cool story, bro!
        
         | bigfishrunning wrote:
         | Scenario 2 makes the assumption that no technological
         | development can happen without AI, which seems like a stretch
         | to me. Honestly, the worst scenario i can think of is 40ish
         | years of AI assisted development followed by a technological
         | crash due to there being no competent engineers left to fix the
         | slop.
        
           | atleastoptimal wrote:
           | I didn't say all technological development would be halted,
           | just that tech "in many fields" would have to be stalled for
           | safety (AI development, algorithm development that would
           | reduce the cost of training models, etc)> Naturally if AI is
           | considered an existential threat there would be a huge safety
           | radius for things that would allow bad-actors to train AI
           | models.
        
       | amarant wrote:
       | There's really only one thing we need to do to avoid the
       | apocalypse, and that is to not hand over the launch codes to a
       | LLM.
       | 
       | Seems easy enough, I'm actually pretty confident in even the most
       | incompetent of current world leaders in this particular task.
        
         | anon35 wrote:
         | You don't think a human using an LLM to generate content that
         | convinces another human to press the launch button is a
         | concern? Sure seems like there's more than one thing we need to
         | do.
        
           | amarant wrote:
           | Honestly? I really don't! What kind of content do you think
           | would trigger that? If humans were launching nukes based on
           | Facebook posts we'd all be long dead! A good deep fake might
           | trick your grandma, but it's not very likely to fool military
           | intelligence.
        
             | munificent wrote:
             | _> What kind of content do you think would trigger that?_
             | 
             | The kind of political propaganda that leads to the US
             | reelecting a convicted rapist whose selects another rapist
             | to lead the Department of Defense who then renames it to
             | the Department of War and, true to the name, starts
             | unilaterally attacking other countries.
        
           | mossTechnician wrote:
           | The exact same concern already existed without LLMs. It is
           | called social engineering, and has been a known risk for a
           | while.
        
       | weinzierl wrote:
       | Oh boy, that's a very generous view of human nature.
       | 
       | The cynic in me agrees with the article's premise, but not
       | because I believe _" alignment is a joke"_, but because I doubt
       | that humans are _" biologically predisposed to acquire prosocial
       | behavior."_
        
         | goatlover wrote:
         | Human cooperation is the norm not the exception.
        
           | weinzierl wrote:
           | The norm is competition and cooperation is the tool we
           | invented to compete more effectively.
           | 
           | Cooperation is only competition's favorite strategy.
        
             | jaeh wrote:
             | The norm is cooperation and competition is the tool we
             | invented to cooperate more effectively.
             | 
             | Competition is only cooperation's favorite strategy.
             | 
             | (By choosing from competing groups we select more favorable
             | cooperation partners, because there are too many to choose
             | from.)
             | 
             | Both of our statements are true. darned doublethink.
        
       | ramoz wrote:
       | Aside from the sentiment and arguments made-
       | 
       | You don't need to train new models. Every single frontier model
       | is susceptible to the same jailbreaks they were 3 years ago.
       | 
       | Only now, an agent reading the CEOs email is much more dangerous
       | because it is more capable than it was 3 years ago.
        
       | quantified wrote:
       | The Garden of Eden story is an apocryphal fable. But it sort of
       | has a relevant twang to it.
       | 
       | Geoffrey Hinton will not have his liver pecked out every day like
       | Prometheus does.
        
         | throwanem wrote:
         | Are you sure? In some mythologies, the basilisk is notably
         | birdlike, I believe.
        
       | krishna3145 wrote:
       | https://www.researchgate.net/publication/403780821_Adversari...
        
       | dredmorbius wrote:
       | Other articles in this series discussed over the past five days:
       | 
       | 1. Introduction: <https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47689648>
       | (619 comments)
       | 
       | 2. Dynamics: <https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47693678> (0
       | comments)
       | 
       | 3. Culture: <https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47703528>
       | 
       | 4. Information Ecology:
       | <https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47718502> (106 comments)
       | 
       | 5. Annoyances: <https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47730981>
       | (171 comments)
       | 
       | 6. Psychological Hazards:
       | <https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47747936> (0 comments)
       | 
       | And this submission makes:
       | 
       | 7. Safety: <https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47754379> (89
       | comments, presently).
       | 
       | There's also a comprehensive PDF version for those who prefer
       | that kind of thing: <https://aphyr.com/data/posts/411/the-future-
       | of-everything-is...> (PDF) 26 pp.
       | 
       | (Derived from aphyr's comment:
       | <https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47754834>.)
        
       | cold_tom wrote:
       | Feels like people are mixing two different things here-alignment
       | in small groups (family,teams) vs alignment at scale. The first
       | happens naturally, the second almost always needs structure,
       | incentives, and enforcement
        
       | agentic_lawyer wrote:
       | If lies are our future, we have the tools necessary to deal with
       | them. Frankly, this question was answered over a century ago by
       | Dostoyevsky in Crime and Punishment, and every experienced
       | criminal lawyer, prosecutor, and judge I've met already
       | understood this very basic fact to be true: even lies point to
       | the truth.
       | 
       | What is unacceptable, and what I've used my entire life as a
       | deliberate strategy to obfuscate personal affairs, deflect
       | unpleasant conversations, and deal with fools I come across, is
       | to mix of a small amount of truth within a complex web of lies
       | and misdirection.
       | 
       | This approach deals with two main challenges of lying
       | effectively: lying in a consistent way and resisting the urge to
       | be caught out in the lie. The truth is an abyss, and it
       | frequently finds its most trenchant opponents flinging themselves
       | willingly into it.
       | 
       | The most important, revealing truths can be disclosed without any
       | risk of being discovered, hiding in plain sight. The philosophers
       | knew this and applied these lessons judiciously since the times
       | of Plato. Sometimes speaking the truth is dangerous.
       | 
       | I sometimes wish LLMs displayed that cautious refrain when
       | discussing difficult matters. In my estimation, AGI will not have
       | been reached until the models can produce works as mischievous as
       | Plato, Averroes, Rousseau, or Derrida.
       | 
       | We are a long way from that. The vanilla brand of lies put out
       | today by LLMs are barely worth mentioning, even if troublesome.
       | 
       | It's when the lies mask a deeper and profound truth that we'll
       | know the game is up.
        
       | GistNoesis wrote:
       | There is also the fact that it's very easy to plant backdoors in
       | LLMs with plausible deniability :
       | 
       | - You can just use the same tools you use to train them to make
       | them behave in some specific ways if some specific preconditions
       | are met.
       | 
       | - You can also poison the training data, so that the LLMs are
       | writing flawed code they are convinced is right because they saw
       | it on some obscure blog but in fact it had some subtle flaw you
       | planted.
       | 
       | - You can poison the prompts as they are automatically injected
       | from "skills" found online.
       | 
       | You couple that with long running agents which may drift very var
       | from the conditions where they were tested during the safety
       | tests.
       | 
       | You add the fact that in this AI race war, there is some premium
       | to run agents capable of advanced offensive security with full
       | permission, pushed using yolo dark-pattern.
       | 
       | The training process is obscure and expensive so only really
       | doable by big actors non replicable and non verifiable.
       | 
       | And of course, now safe developers (aka those not taking the
       | insane risk of running what really is and should be called
       | malware), can't get jobs, get no visibility for any of their
       | work, drown into a sea of AI slop made using a prompt and a
       | credit card, and therefore they must sell their soul.md and hype
       | for the madness.
        
       | BloondAndDoom wrote:
       | I don't even see the pint of alignment or anything about security
       | in LLMs. I feel like this is how "some people" reacted to the
       | internet when I was young (lots of censorship), how hackers don't
       | let it happen, then how we are back to that world in the hand of
       | corporations and governments who "think of the children). LLMs
       | are out of the bottle and not going back there, only option is
       | building for the new world on the defender side, everything else
       | is politics.
       | 
       | LLMs can hack, but also nmap made hacking easier do we make nmap
       | illegal? We already have drones who kills people, now there is
       | less human involvement, results are same. LLM can also make
       | defending easier (at least for cyber security) but I guess real
       | world security is not that different. Now evil things can be done
       | faster, easier and at more scale. Also good things have the
       | properties.
       | 
       | It's another tool in the toolbox, the idea that some entity will
       | able to censor or align it as naive as thinking internet can be
       | controlled. Some will do and manage anyway, but it's not any
       | different china's firewall.
       | 
       | Alignment is sold to us by companies like OpenAI and Anthropic ,
       | not because they care, because that gives them power and more
       | control. When was the last time a big corporation actually cared
       | about soft topics like this? Yes, never.
        
       ___________________________________________________________________
       (page generated 2026-04-13 23:00 UTC)