[HN Gopher] Show HN: Is Hormuz open yet?
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Show HN: Is Hormuz open yet?
        
       I built this because I was interested in the data. Didn't fully get
       it to what I wanted, but thought I'd share it nonetheless. Maybe
       someone has better data sources they could share!  Turns out live
       ship tracking APIs are expensive so I manually just copied the json
       from
       https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:57.4/cente...
       I'll probably have an ai agent do the same thing on some cron
       interval, if this gets any fanfare.  To actually know if the port
       is open without live ship tracking I found
       https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a...
       which was perfect, except it has 4 day lag!  I also thought of
       adding news feed parsing or prediction market data to get a more
       definitive answer on if it's open right when you load it, but I
       spent a few hours and am gonna move on for now.
        
       Author : anonfunction
       Score  : 141 points
       Date   : 2026-04-08 21:33 UTC (1 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.ishormuzopenyet.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.ishormuzopenyet.com)
        
       | fraywing wrote:
       | Very cool, thanks for sharing!
       | 
       | What's the threshold function? Do you have graduating `No -->
       | Partially --> Mostly --> Open`?
       | 
       | Also what's the update cadence?
        
         | anonfunction wrote:
         | So if it's under 25% of the prior year's crossing it goes to
         | NO, otherwise it's counted as open.
         | 
         | The update cadence kinda sucks because I didn't spring for the
         | $200 a month live ship tracking data, so I'm using
         | https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a...
         | which lags by 4 days which isn't great for a site like this,
         | but was fine for me on a little side project. Open to other
         | data sources or ideas, of if anyone wants to sponsor an API key
         | (I did reach out to a few vendors already if they would give
         | the project api key in exchange for a link to their site).
         | 
         | The original idea was to track ships and see how many crossed
         | the strait but as mentioned above I didn't find any free
         | sources so I went with what I did.
        
       | truelson wrote:
       | Really liked this. Made me laugh even if not intentionally funny.
       | 
       | Also, given how markets and news cycles are moved with words not
       | actions these days, I really like this site.
       | 
       | There are still so many misaligned interests; this is a much
       | tougher situation that may get some local stability for a period,
       | but will likely return to chaos again.
        
       | 4ndrewl wrote:
       | You might want to rethink scraping marinetraffic before you get a
       | call from their lawyers?
       | 
       | https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/p/terms
        
         | anonfunction wrote:
         | Fair enough, I'm actually not scraping it on any automated
         | cycle currently, I just manually copied the JSON from their
         | site to get some ships on the map.
         | 
         | There's a few live ship tracking APIs I considered but they are
         | expensive or their free offering just straight up didn't work.
         | I sent a few an email if they would consider sponsoring the
         | project, no replies yet.                   - AISStream.io --
         | https://aisstream.io -- Down/not working         - DataDocked
         | -- https://datadocked.com -- Ran out of credits on a single
         | failed request         - VesselFinder --
         | https://www.vesselfinder.com/realtime-ais-data -- Enterprise
         | contact form, asked if they wanted to sponsor in exchange for a
         | link         - MarineTraffic -- https://www.marinetraffic.com,
         | their API is like an enterprise contact form, same as above,
         | waiting for response.
        
       | frogperson wrote:
       | https://warescalation.com/ is also a good source of info.
        
         | starik36 wrote:
         | It says US-Israel Bloc military deaths - 74. Iran military
         | deaths - 10,500 It has no information what is the source of
         | information. Seems like made up numbers.
        
       | bl4ckneon wrote:
       | Very cool! I love one off intresting sites like this. Thanks for
       | building it and talking a little bit about where the data comes
       | from etc.
       | 
       | On the note of Ai agent getting the data for you, could you not
       | just build a chrome extention that intercepts/read the api
       | response and then uploads it to whatever ingest endpoint you
       | have? You could probably just call their api end points they use
       | on the page as well but not sure what protections they have so
       | might be a bit tricky. A custom chrome extention could do it
       | though if they have protections.
        
         | anonfunction wrote:
         | Their APIs are protected by cloudflare, I didn't want to
         | circumvent that. Also I dont really want to make a chrome
         | extension or have a browster tab open, if that's what you
         | meant? I've already made a cron style agent framework[1] so
         | that's what I'd probably reach for since they can actually open
         | the browser and inspect the network traffic to grab the json.
         | 
         | 1. https://botctl.dev/
        
           | Klonoar wrote:
           | How is doing it via agent not circumventing it?
        
             | anonfunction wrote:
             | I think I was just spit-balling what would be possible,
             | rather than what I intend to do. As mentioned elsewhere I'm
             | hoping to get an API key from one the data providers, I
             | even reached out to the api behind marinetraffic.com,
             | https://www.kpler.com/product/maritime/data-services to see
             | if they would sponsor the project.
             | 
             | This was just something I built on a whim, but I appreciate
             | your comment and took it to heart!
        
       | ggm wrote:
       | Maps can be so misleading. It looks like a dredging operation in
       | Omani waters could alleviate this, if we'd started decades ago.
       | 
       | Moving to a topographic view, it becomes clear the neck of land
       | at "two seas view" is narrow, but tall. It would literally be
       | moving a mountain.
       | 
       | Panamax and suezmax boats are smaller than ULCC supertankers.
       | 
       | Ferdinand De Lesseps time has passed. This would be ruinously
       | expensive. Better to negotiate with rational intent.
        
         | dylan604 wrote:
         | > This would be ruinously expensive.
         | 
         | I bet it could have been done with the money spent on the "war"
        
           | ggm wrote:
           | Yes, but in circumstances where no war is in the offing,
           | digging a giant hole next to 50km of open water begs
           | questions. It would be impossible to get "it's a hedge
           | against the future" over the line.
           | 
           | The same to a lesser extent applies to pipes. You could
           | construct pipes for gas, for some of the heavier oils and
           | crude (what I read suggests pumping crude long distance is
           | painful, it has to be down-mixed with lighter stuff to make
           | it sufficiently fluid) but the fertilizer? that would mean
           | converting dry to wet and back again (nobody ships fluid
           | weight if they can avoid it) -Or ship the inputs: ammonia,
           | and sulphur in some liquid form, and produce the dry goods on
           | the other side.
           | 
           | But, I think pipes have a stronger case than a canal: move
           | the things which are amenable to pipes, into pipes, and bury
           | the pipes.
           | 
           | In times past, this would have been done as a convoy. China
           | and other nations would have stepped to the fore, conducting
           | safe passage with their own ships on the outside edge. But
           | we're not in a world where this kind of thing works for
           | anyone involved. Even offering to cover insurance risk
           | doesn't look to have motivated ship owners to pass. (in times
           | past, the US wouldn't have put itself or it's allies in this
           | position, hence the reference to China)
           | 
           | Don't be fooled by mental images of what a convoy looks like:
           | ships like these maintain massive separation. There's almost
           | suction between hulls moving at this scale, if they were
           | within 500m of each other there'd be chaos if one had to take
           | any evasive action. In reality (I believe) even a convoy
           | consists of a a lot of discrete, clearly demarked and
           | targetable things, not a large mass you can "hide" in.
           | 
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_traffic_separation_sch.
           | .. (and a lot of links off this)
        
             | analog31 wrote:
             | We could have spent the money on windmills without raising
             | any suspicions.
             | 
             | On the other hand, fertilizer is fluid -- either ammonia or
             | ureal ammonium nitrate.
        
               | ggm wrote:
               | If the fertiliser production has a point in manufacture
               | when the fluid is amenable to transport, then for sure,
               | that would make sense.
               | 
               | And you are right, if the same amount of capital and
               | energy was invested in Solar/Wind as in Oil, we'd be in a
               | totally different world. It's cents to dollars,
               | considering the size of the tail AND the current
               | investment.
               | 
               | Here in Australia the problem is the royalty stream to
               | the states. Oil and Gas windfalls when the price of
               | equivalent supply (brent crude I believe for oil, not
               | sure what LNG world price defines the limit) hits $100 is
               | just amazing. The revenue stream to the states is
               | enormous. Their motivation to transfer money into
               | alternatives, instead of sucking on the teat, is zero.
               | States without significant oil revenue seem to do more
               | (SA) -States isolated from the national grid seem to do
               | more (WA) but a site with both high insolation, and good
               | wind, but also massive oil, gas and coal fields (Qld)
               | does as little as possible. It's political reductionism.
               | The crony economy is huge, Mining funds the government
               | and the government reflects mining sector interests over
               | all others.
        
       | stavros wrote:
       | I'm not really very up to speed on this, can someone explain how
       | the strait is actually closed? Are the Iranians threatening to
       | sink any ships that pass by, or what? How come any ships don't
       | turn their transponders off and try to make a run for it?
        
         | MattDamonSpace wrote:
         | They'll sink ships or cause damage with low cost drones or
         | missles
         | 
         | The strait isn't wide enough, Iran can see any ships attempting
        
           | stavros wrote:
           | I see, thanks. Looks like the strait is 77 km wide, which
           | isn't one ship's width but probably not wide enough that
           | binoculars wouldn't see everything.
        
             | cwillu wrote:
             | The navigable width where it is deep enough is
             | _significantly_ narrower.
        
               | stavros wrote:
               | Good point, thanks.
        
         | luxuryballs wrote:
         | From what I was reading Iran likely wouldn't sink a civilian
         | vessel but because the risk is there due to the threat they
         | don't do it because it would violate the contact for their
         | maritime insurance, meaning even if you had a brave crew and
         | orders to go, you lose all your insurance coverage against the
         | loss if something goes wrong.
        
         | roughly wrote:
         | > How come any ships don't turn their transponders off and try
         | to make a run for it?
         | 
         | Because the cost of failure is death and the crew aren't going
         | to risk it, and the other cost of failure is a couple hundred
         | million dollars in ship and cargo and the insurance companies
         | aren't going to risk it either. This is like asking why your
         | DoorDash driver wouldn't just try to run the police blockade to
         | get you your burrito.
        
         | megous wrote:
         | I'm sure tankers are huge and show up easily on naval radars.
        
       | luxuryballs wrote:
       | So apparently the reason they don't just go for it is due to
       | insurance. Because Iran technically isn't suppose to just sink a
       | civilian vessel, but the risk is there so the ships are ordered
       | by the owner/stakeholder not to go due to the insurance coverage.
       | Kind of interesting, they could technically call Iran's bluff but
       | it would mean, they violate the insurance contract and lose
       | coverage? I'm just reading about this so probably not the full
       | picture.
        
         | tokai wrote:
         | No insurance has been fixed for a while now. Its as simple as
         | shipowners not wanting to lose their boats and their future
         | earnings potential.
        
           | cwillu wrote:
           | And their crews not wanting to lose their lives.
        
         | roncesvalles wrote:
         | The capability is very real. And they don't have to sink the
         | ship, just one Shahed drone exploding on the deck and
         | injuring/killing a sailor is deterrence enough.
        
       | alerter wrote:
       | I work for a consultancy that does vessel tracking as one of its
       | main products, and yeah it's expensive! afaik they have remote
       | teams with sensors at key points and a bunch of people using
       | AI/software to manage things like GPS spoofing. So it's all
       | pretty guarded proprietary stuff.
       | 
       | Great bit of topical datavis here.
        
         | anonfunction wrote:
         | Yeah! The AIS terrain data is expensive, but the good stuff is
         | from satellite tracking and out of my budget for silly site I
         | built on a whim.
         | 
         | https://i.imgflip.com/aopmmf.jpg
        
       | dr_robert wrote:
       | What did you use for the map ? Mapbox ??
        
         | Doohickey-d wrote:
         | Looks like it's using leaflet + map tiles from
         | https://carto.com/
         | 
         | I think Mapbox also provides a similar looking basemap style.
        
         | anonfunction wrote:
         | CartoDB and Leaflet. Source is available here btw:
         | https://github.com/montanaflynn/ishormuzopenyet
        
           | pietervdvn wrote:
           | As an OpenStreetMap-contributor: you have to add attribution
           | as per our license agreement:
           | https://www.openstreetmap.org/copyright
           | 
           | CartoDB packages this data into tiles you can use, but that
           | doesn't lift this requirement.
        
       | MiSeRyDeee wrote:
       | This will be inherently inaccurate because data was based on
       | public AIS signal, but ships are turning off their AIS to avoid
       | detection.
       | 
       | > In an attempt to evade detection, many ships appear to be
       | deliberately switching off their tracking system - known as AIS
       | (Automatic Identification System).
       | https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4geg0eeyjeo
        
         | anonfunction wrote:
         | Great point and something I didn't consider, I should make a
         | big disclaimer it's not meant to be fully accurate or live
         | data. Thanks for the comment!
        
       | anonfunction wrote:
       | Another funny thing about this was this morning I checked if the
       | domain isthestraitofhormuzopenyet.com was available and it was,
       | and by the time I made the site locally, put it on vercel I went
       | to buy the domain to point DNS to it someone had bought it! I
       | renamed it to the current site url / repo which i think might be
       | a little nicer to type, but crazy that we had same idea on
       | apparently the same day. I was also just telling a friend about
       | simultaneous invention aka multiple discover[1] a few days ago,
       | so another case of the Baader-Meinhof phenomenon[2]!
       | 
       | 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multiple_discovery
       | 
       | 2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frequency_illusion
        
         | soco wrote:
         | I was also surprised to see that arewegreatyet.com is in use
         | already...
        
       | einpoklum wrote:
       | Iran (and various news sources) have claimed that the straights
       | are not now, and in fact never have been, closed - provided the
       | relevant ship was not involved/linked to the attacks on Iran, and
       | that it coordinated with Iranian authorities.
       | 
       | So, it could be that:
       | 
       | * Iran is lying and that has not actually been an option.
       | 
       | * A lot of the ships which would otherwise have transitioned are
       | involved with the war somehow.
       | 
       | * The relevant parties have decided not to coordinate transitions
       | with Iran, for various reasons
       | 
       | * The data displayed at the link is partial for some reason.
        
         | sethops1 wrote:
         | No need for baseless speculation, it's well known that no
         | insurance company is willing to insure transit through the
         | straight while it's an active war zone.
        
       | spaghetdefects wrote:
       | It was mentioned in this thread and quickly flagged, but Israel
       | broke the ceasefire today by attacking civilians in Lebanon so
       | Iran closed the straight. It was open prior to the ceasefire
       | violation.
       | 
       | France's Macron actually just commented on this:
       | https://x.com/EmmanuelMacron/status/2041990505760772551
        
       | blobbers wrote:
       | IRGC targeting systems have entered the chat.
        
       | goodluckchuck wrote:
       | I think there's difference between A) whether ships are
       | traversing the straight, and B) whether the straight is open /
       | closed / could be traversed.
       | 
       | It's very well possible that the straight is safe, but the
       | vessels are unnecessarily cautious.
        
         | anonfunction wrote:
         | Totally, and I've heard a lot of it comes down to insurance!
         | 
         | https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-08/shippers-...
        
       | Jeremy1026 wrote:
       | The data being ~4 days delayed does kind of make this less
       | useful. It is a nice concept and cool to see the historical data
       | though. Just think the domain and the large "NO" doesn't really
       | fit with the lack of current data.
        
         | anonfunction wrote:
         | Totally agree, I put some text and tried to make it clear. My
         | first intention was to find some live ship tracking API and see
         | how many ships cross the strait, but they were all hundreds of
         | dollars a month, and behind enterprise contact forms.
        
       ___________________________________________________________________
       (page generated 2026-04-08 23:00 UTC)