[HN Gopher] Japanese, French and Omani vessels cross Strait of H...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Japanese, French and Omani vessels cross Strait of Hormuz
        
       Author : vrganj
       Score  : 136 points
       Date   : 2026-04-05 14:27 UTC (8 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (japantoday.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (japantoday.com)
        
       | zzzeek wrote:
       | The US , when finally back in control by reasonable adults, will
       | need to offer great concessions to Iran in order to extricate
       | from the effects of a disastrous, illegal (both from a US as well
       | as an intentional standpoint) and of course, completely, utterly
       | failed war. And it might be just that Iran gets to be a permanent
       | toll collector for the global economy.
        
         | vrganj wrote:
         | No matter who controls the US in the future, it will never go
         | back to the position it once had globally.
         | 
         | It's been actively harming it's allies, threatening them with
         | invasion and conspiring with their enemies.
         | 
         | The rest of the world cannot afford to give the American people
         | the benefit of the doubt.
         | 
         | After Trump I, there was hope it was just a fluke. Trump II is
         | much worse and cements the unreliability of the American voting
         | public.
        
           | nozzlegear wrote:
           | Never is a long time. Look at where Germany was after both
           | WWI and WWII, and where it is now; it's demonstrably possible
           | to cause irreparable damage to everyone around you, and then
           | rise back to the top (multiple times!). The only questions
           | are timeline and scale.
        
             | vrganj wrote:
             | Germany wasn't and isn't the world's hegemon.
             | 
             | I don't think that position is recoverable the same way.
        
             | evilduck wrote:
             | You also have to consider the outside intervention forcibly
             | imposed upon Germany, after being defeated in war both
             | times, and how the first round of that contributed directly
             | to WWII. It's not exactly a playbook to copy verbatim.
        
             | stevenwoo wrote:
             | Germany got a new type of government. The 2/3 required in
             | USA for significant change will be insurmountable short of
             | a disaster on order of second Great Depression since
             | plurality of American voters can't see past next paycheck,
             | no Democrat that can win Presidential primary has any kind
             | of revolutionary vision, it's all muted, even Bernie got
             | squashed by centrist voters eventually and he was not even
             | that far to the left IMHO - he even stayed away from race
             | or gender issues.
        
             | rchaud wrote:
             | Germany changed its constitution, banned its former ruling
             | party, and actively explores and teaches their school kids
             | about their crimes. The US on the other hand has a chunk of
             | its electorate flying Confederate flags and voting for
             | politicians who think US history textbooks should be more
             | "pro-American".
        
             | feb012025 wrote:
             | Look at where Germany is now?
             | 
             | They're a total non-player on the world stage. They
             | completely kowtow to the US. Hardly a good example
        
           | bdbdbdb wrote:
           | This. We all thought Trump was a crazy accident but the fact
           | that he almost beat Biden, and then did beat Harris, means we
           | just can't trust Americans to put sensible people in charge.
           | Assuming a democrat takes the office next, they will inherit
           | an economy in tatters, a failing infrastructure and a broken
           | strategic alliance. They'll have four years to try to fix all
           | of that while the republicans blame them for everything
           | they've inherited, and four years from that the American
           | people will have largely forgotten how Trump and his minions
           | trailed dog shit all through the house and they'll vote for
           | the next right wing dick that's been groomed for the job -
           | probably Pete Hegseth, or Don Jr, or Mark Wayne Mullin
        
             | SoftTalker wrote:
             | Neither Biden nor Harris were sensible candidates.
             | Democrats could have easily beat Trump by running a more
             | appealing/less polarizing candidate. Didn't even have to be
             | both. Obama was polarizing but he was appealing and he won
             | comfortably.
        
               | adrian_b wrote:
               | As a non-American I have always wondered about the
               | criteria used by Americans to vote for their presidents.
               | 
               | Clinton and Obama had various defects, but at least both
               | of them looked like presidents and talked like
               | presidents.
               | 
               | On the other hand, both George Bush Junior and Trump (of
               | course especially the latter), looked like clowns and
               | talked like clowns.
               | 
               | I have never understood their appeal to the masses. I
               | understand the discontent of those who have voted against
               | the Democrat "elites", but the fact that anyone could
               | look at Trump and believe that he is the right man for
               | the job seems unbelievable, regardless of how inept were
               | his opponents.
        
               | bdbdbdb wrote:
               | > Neither Biden nor Harris were sensible candidates.
               | 
               | I just can't fathom how you can think this. How 25% of
               | your country can think this. How 50% thought it wasn't
               | worth voting for either.
               | 
               | America has lost its marbles
        
         | sneak wrote:
         | > _The US , when finally back in control by reasonable adults_
         | 
         | Everyone reasonable seems to be holding their breath in
         | anticipation of this eventually happening.
         | 
         | What if it doesn't? What if all of this is a symptom of an
         | underlying deterioration that extends deeper and beyond the
         | current administration? It's not Trump that made Americans A-OK
         | with wars of aggression; Obama blew up as many kids using
         | drones as Trump put into cages. What if the next few are the
         | same, or worse? What do we do if this _isn't_ a temporary
         | excursion but the new normal for the US and A?
        
           | thyristan wrote:
           | > What if it doesn't? What if all of this is a symptom of an
           | underlying deterioration that extends deeper and beyond the
           | current administration? It's not Trump that made Americans
           | A-OK with wars of aggression; Obama blew up as many kids
           | using drones as Trump put into cages. What if the next few
           | are the same, or worse? What do we do if this isn't a
           | temporary excursion but the new normal for the US and A?
           | 
           | In the cold war, there was the "Evil East" and the "Good
           | West", and this opposition forced at least some token
           | "goodness" and a certain predictable behavior on both sides.
           | It also forced both sides to have some firm principles they
           | adhere to. Now the cold war is over, and while it did change
           | more in the formerly East, the West, at least in some parts,
           | also learned a few things. Among them that principles are
           | negotiable, especially without a closed opposing bloc with
           | the opposite principles. Doing business with China and Russia
           | not only made people rich, it also moved Western culture more
           | towards the Eastern ones, more than anyone would like to
           | admit. Starting to see things from the Eastern perspective
           | also induced the West to over time to not just understand the
           | former enemy better and learn the "good stuff". We started to
           | find things like strong autocratic leadership, compromises on
           | human rights, ignorance of international laws and treaties,
           | and wars of aggression and conquest more acceptable and even
           | preferable.
           | 
           | So I don't think this is just temporary.
        
             | ted_bunny wrote:
             | None of that is new or imported from the Asiatic Hordes.
             | It's just more visible now.
        
               | selimthegrim wrote:
               | Funny that you use those words; Trump seems to be
               | champing at the bit to bring back the Asiatic Barred Zone
        
           | nozzlegear wrote:
           | > _Obama blew up as many kids using drones as Trump put into
           | cages._
           | 
           | Obama didn't deliberately target kids using drones.
        
           | InsideOutSanta wrote:
           | Yeah, that's what I'm afraid of. The US saw what Trump did
           | during his first term, and four years later, after relative
           | calm, they were like "nah, let's go back to Trump." That's
           | the new normal. In fact, things will be worse during the next
           | election, with even more of the media owned by unhinged
           | billionaires intent on robbing as much as possible from
           | normal people.
        
             | ted_bunny wrote:
             | I don't think the electorate ran back into Trump's arms.
             | Kamala was an egregiously poor candidate. He didn't win,
             | she lost.
        
         | lifestyleguru wrote:
         | > The US , when finally back in control by reasonable adults
         | 
         | There is no way back, as there is no way back to the world
         | before covid or before the 2008 global crisis. They say about
         | Russian history "it was bad and then it got worse". Over and
         | over, for hundreds of years. Vlad and Donnie are friends now.
        
         | Jensson wrote:
         | > The US , when finally back in control by reasonable adults
         | 
         | Betting says next president will be Gavin Newsom or JD Vance or
         | Marco Rubio, so I wouldn't bet on that happening anytime soon.
         | It is weird how so bad people bubble up in american politics.
        
           | zzzeek wrote:
           | none of those three people will be president
        
             | Jensson wrote:
             | Then you can get rich by betting against it, so most people
             | seem to disagree with you. And in a democracy most people
             | decide who the next leader will be.
             | 
             | https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics
        
               | vntok wrote:
               | Why would you assume that the parent (1) has a gambling
               | addiction, (2) has enough side money they can lock into a
               | far-away bet and (3) wants to place a bet that will more
               | than probably never pay anyway because it won't be
               | insured nor escrowed by a trusted third party?
               | 
               | Buying or selling stocks of companies owned by MAGA
               | henchmen is probably much safer.
        
               | Jensson wrote:
               | > Buying or selling stocks of companies owned by MAGA
               | henchmen is probably much safer.
               | 
               | Not if you are 100% sure, which the poster seemed to be.
               | Its not gambling if its a sure case. So you saying this
               | is a risky bet means you disagree with the person.
               | 
               | > wants to place a bet that will more than probably never
               | pay anyway because it won't be insured nor escrowed by a
               | trusted third party?
               | 
               | Betting sites are trusted third parties.
               | 
               | Anyway, I wasn't telling him to bet on it. My point is
               | that it is weird to say those for sure wont be the next
               | president when most bettors are betting on those being
               | the next president. You saying this is a risky bet means
               | you disagree with him as well.
        
               | vntok wrote:
               | > Not if you are 100% sure, which the poster seemed to
               | be. Its not gambling if its a sure case. So you saying
               | this is a risky bet means you disagree with the person.
               | 
               | This is incorrect. You can be sure, certain even, of a
               | specific outcome, and yet still be scammed out of your
               | money by the entity that took your bet.
               | 
               | > Betting sites are trusted third parties.
               | 
               | No they aren't, lol. Of course they aren't. Many are
               | illegal, most operate from shady jurisdictions, all have
               | unclear T&Cs and so on.
        
               | rawgabbit wrote:
               | If I interpret the odds correctly the site is saying
               | Newsom has 22% chance and Vance has 20% chance. These
               | odds seem rather low.
        
               | Jensson wrote:
               | Still above 50% chance one of the 3 people I mentioned
               | will become next president according to the betting odds.
        
               | zzzeek wrote:
               | betting markets aren't "most people"
        
           | dyauspitr wrote:
           | I wish with all my heart it's going to be Newsom. Perfectly
           | center left just like I like it.
        
             | Jensson wrote:
             | He does seem wildly corrupt though with extreme exceptions
             | in bills for his friends and backers, more than other
             | politicians I've seen. He is probably better than Trump or
             | JD Vance but that isn't saying much.
             | 
             | I too mostly agree with his populist center takes, but that
             | doesn't mean he is reasonable.
        
             | feb012025 wrote:
             | I can assure you that no "center left" president will be
             | fixing any problems in the middle east anytime soon
        
         | jMyles wrote:
         | > The US , when finally back in control by reasonable adults
         | 
         | This rings as "make America great again", just with a different
         | mythology standing-in for "again".
         | 
         | The US (or at least the US _state_) hasn't been in control by
         | reasonable adults in over a century, or arguably ever.
         | 
         | What is finally becoming obvious is that this particular
         | landmass is much too large to be under the control of a single
         | state, and now that we have instant communications and
         | ubiquitous cameras, even the arguments (laid out eg in the
         | federalist papers) are no longer dispositive.
         | 
         | Calm and careful deprecation of the US as a state needs to top
         | the new agenda.
        
         | b0rtb0rt wrote:
         | > when finally back in control by reasonable adults
         | 
         | no one even knows who was really in control during the previous
         | administration. quite a few idiotic and destructive policy
         | changes were made during that administration too
        
       | ogogmad wrote:
       | Just about a week ago, Trump was joking about Pearl Harbor on TV
       | while the Japanese PM was sitting right next to him. What's more,
       | she's a nationalist.
        
         | throw949449 wrote:
         | Remember that video about ethnical clensing gaza, beach resort
         | casinos and golden Trump statues? Real estste crypto bro
         | version of hitler!
        
           | andy_ppp wrote:
           | If only Hollywood had have let Trump be in more films than
           | Home Alone 2, none of this would have happened!
        
             | lifestyleguru wrote:
             | That's a revenge for not letting him to play his character
             | in Back to the Future.
        
               | fhdkweig wrote:
               | Or in Super Mario Bros 1993
        
         | skeletoncrew2 wrote:
         | I only give Trump about 25% credit for that joke, the reporter
         | tee'd it up too much.
         | https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=fFmA0xlINGg&ra=m
        
       | jghn wrote:
       | Last week the US stated they didn't need any of the oil, and that
       | if other countries wanted it they could go figure it out
       | themselves. Looks like they have. And yet the US is now back to
       | threatening Iran if they don't open up the oil.
        
         | hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm wrote:
         | It is the weekend, of course there is a threat. Tomorrow there
         | will be a deal.
        
         | throw949449 wrote:
         | New deal: There is a toll 5 million usd per tanker, and oil
         | must be paid in RNB not USD.
         | 
         | Basically Iran put sanction on US. I guess Trump expected fight
         | or something.
        
         | Spooky23 wrote:
         | It's the same grift all over again. The market will drop 2-3%
         | Monday. Jared and Jr will load up on options, WTI puts, and
         | whatever other BS they do.
         | 
         | Then Tuesday we'll announce that "good talks have happened" and
         | bridge day is delayed. Maybe they'll roll out the Shah's nephew
         | or whatever and pave the way for an announcement of a
         | transitional government.
         | 
         | They'll push the strikes until late in the week or early next
         | week to maximize volatility - next Friday is the April options
         | expiry. It likely the Treasury is intervening in the oil
         | markets, so there's likely a counter-trade there as well.
         | 
         | I've 3x'd my salary on this trade as an observer, the insiders
         | are printing cash. Eventually the credibility of the office of
         | the POTUS will erode to a point where it is going to blow up,
         | we probably have another 3-5 rounds of this.
        
         | e2le wrote:
         | We are 1 Year and 3 months into this current administration, 2
         | years and 9 months remain. Despite the short period in office,
         | so much damage and chaos has being caused by one individual and
         | the sycophants who surround him.
         | 
         | It is a fact that the reputation of the USA has being damaged,
         | perhaps not repairable for decades or more. This will have
         | consequences.
         | 
         | Perhaps, I hope, Americans will take action to save the
         | democratic norms and institutions that so many of them have
         | claimed to cherish. Before he has dismantled and replaced too
         | many to salvage. Or perhaps they have work tomorrow.
        
           | iJohnDoe wrote:
           | Worst case there will be another Republican president from
           | the same tribe. We could be in for the same exact chaos and
           | damage for another four years. This could go on for a long
           | time.
           | 
           | Remember, Republicans get out and vote. They would rather
           | suffer and destroy America just so the democrats don't win.
        
             | ronnier wrote:
             | I think a large part of why they do this and vote the way
             | they do is because of comments like yours. Hacker news,
             | Reddit, award shows, movies, universities, etc all have a
             | constant drum beat of disdain and hate towards them. I
             | think this motivates them into voting even if the vote is
             | against their own interest.
        
               | watwut wrote:
               | Everything republican party do and everything republicans
               | vote for ... are fault of the opposition. Always.
               | Republicans are little helpless souls having no choice
               | but cause maxinum harm as long as opposition in any for
               | exists.
               | 
               | Look at what that party collectively stands for now, who
               | they kick out and who they keep. They all stand behind
               | trump.
        
               | devinplatt wrote:
               | I learned recently that there's actually a name for this
               | concept. Murc's law states that in American politics,
               | only Democrats are assumed to have agency.
               | 
               | Presumably democratic reforms could help change the
               | dynamic if they changed the incentives. Right now, it's a
               | politically viable strategy to just obstruct the other
               | party when out of power, and politically unviable
               | strategy for Congress to oppose a president from the same
               | party. Both of which lead to a lot of dysfunction.
               | 
               | As an example, if Congress had multimember districts with
               | an appropriate voting system (e.g. ranked choice voting
               | for all members at the same time), then you can
               | effectively nullify the power of gerrymandered voting
               | districts (the current system, where effectively
               | politicians choose voters rather than the other way
               | around). Doing so would elevate the influence of general
               | elections over party primaries. Then representatives
               | would be less afraid of challenges in those primaries,
               | which is currently one of the major disincentives in
               | opposing the president of the same political party (fear
               | of being "primaried").
        
               | Jensson wrote:
               | That is just progressive vs conservative, ie changing
               | things vs conserving things, humans are biased to
               | conserve things unless the set of changes are
               | overwhelmingly better.
               | 
               | So conservatives win when progressives push for too many
               | changes, not changing things is the default. So saying
               | that the democrats lost the election by pushing too fast
               | is not weird, that is just how humans works.
        
               | devinplatt wrote:
               | There's definitely an asymmetry in how the systemic
               | dysfunction benefits the Republican party over the
               | Democratic party. (Overall the system benefits both
               | parties though since it entrenches partisanship.)
               | 
               | I'd argue that the asymmetry has less to do with change
               | vs. no change and more to do with the Republican party
               | currently being an "anti government" party (pivoting to
               | that post New Deal). So less is expected of them in terms
               | of functional governance.
               | 
               | With respect to change: I've heard a lot of commentary
               | that the Republican party today is more of an instigator
               | of change than the Democratic party (being seen as a
               | defender of the status quo), despite the traditional
               | alignment of Republican/conservative/no change. Democrats
               | are seen as pro-institution and Republicans anti-
               | institution.
               | 
               | In case it matters, I personally don't identify with a
               | political party. I just want functional government and
               | politics and I see a lot of dysfunction. I'm an engineer
               | so naturally I gravitate towards systemic solutions to
               | systemic problems.
        
               | bigbadfeline wrote:
               | > That is just progressive vs conservative, ie changing
               | things vs conserving things.
               | 
               | Conserving distraction == wars, progressive distraction
               | == LG, then B, then T, there are still letters in the
               | alphabet to progress to - mandatory for school children
               | to study in detail.
               | 
               | Conserving inflation same as progressive inflation, the
               | small group benefiting form it - the same too.
               | 
               | Changing presidential candidates a few months before
               | election and doing everything to let the other side win?
               | Very progressive.
               | 
               | Promising no-more-wars and delivering more-wars? Very
               | conservative.
               | 
               | Moral of the story - while 'progressive' and
               | 'conservative' are used haphazardly, lacking precise and
               | concrete definitions in terms of specific, measurable
               | goals and commitments, using them for political analysis
               | is just mud in the eyes.
        
               | qwerpy wrote:
               | Unironically yes. I lived in the Seattle area and
               | witnessed firsthand the effects of state/county/city
               | Democrat rule. Gifted programs cancelled, streets full of
               | homeless and drug addicts. Hateful people yelling at and
               | flipping me off as I take my kids to daycare for the
               | heinous crime of driving a Tesla. I'm a well educated
               | highly paid minority, the kind of voter that Democrats
               | take for granted. I voted Republican down the ballot last
               | election.
        
               | wrs wrote:
               | Are you familiar with the phrase "cutting off your nose
               | to spite your face"?
        
               | qwerpy wrote:
               | Assuming that people vote a certain way out of spite is
               | narrow-minded. Talk to people outside of your bubble and
               | try to understand them instead of reducing them down to
               | caricatures. I don't judge people on the left the way
               | that I get judged by them. I genuinely think that my
               | choice of political party is better for my family's
               | quality of life.
        
               | aurareturn wrote:
               | I agree. I would vote republican locally, but I'd vote
               | for anyone to replace Trump and his circle.
        
               | Nursie wrote:
               | Well let me be the first to thank you for the extra
               | dollar a litre on my fuel, the extra hundred or so
               | dollars a month on my mortgage and the impending
               | recession that your choice has imposed upon me here in
               | Australia.
               | 
               | Thanks so much for voting in Trump and his enablers.
        
               | aurareturn wrote:
               | Rather than blame this voter, why don't we put some blame
               | onto the democrats. In San Francisco, progressive
               | democrats have wasted billions on homeless and crime but
               | with little to show for.
               | 
               | Sometimes democrats do push too far left. Far left is not
               | that much different than far right.
        
               | nozzlegear wrote:
               | Horseshoe theory is real, but much like Seattle, SF's
               | biggest problem is politically active NIMBYs (and SF has
               | more than most places). Democrats and Republicans both
               | have NIMBYs, it transcends political boundaries.
        
               | aurareturn wrote:
               | NIMBYs aren't causing homeless problems.
        
               | nozzlegear wrote:
               | "I don't want affordable apartments or housing in my
               | backyard because it lowers my property value" is a pretty
               | clear amplifier of homelessness.
        
               | aurareturn wrote:
               | You do realize that normal people who can't afford a city
               | will just move to a cheaper area right?
        
               | ceejayoz wrote:
               | Cool.
               | 
               | Who staffs your stores when everyone moves away? Who mows
               | the lawn? Who builds the houses?
        
               | nozzlegear wrote:
               | That's not at all incompatible with what I said though,
               | right?
        
               | Nursie wrote:
               | Because, uh, Democrats didn't do this?
               | 
               | I don't really give a rats ass who runs the internals of
               | your country, and what goes on in San Francisco seems
               | like a you problem. Due to voters like this, Trump is now
               | my problem many thousands of miles away.
               | 
               | Don't underestimate just how much ill will he is
               | generating around the world, especially in allied
               | nations, by insulting leaders and pushing up all of our
               | energy prices.
        
               | qwerpy wrote:
               | Strange that when Democrats mess things up "they didn't
               | do that" or "that's a you problem" but when the other
               | side does something you're very quick to assign specific
               | blame. One-sided thinking like this is why no one can
               | find common ground anymore and politics has veered off
               | into extremes.
        
               | nozzlegear wrote:
               | You witnessed the firsthand effects of NIMBY rule, which
               | both parties have in abundance.
        
               | watwut wrote:
               | So, you did not voted for centrists and chosen to vote
               | for nazi salute throwing radicals ... because there are
               | non meek leftists groups.
               | 
               | The only way to win against Trump voters like you is to
               | ignore them, because people like you will choose nazi
               | until nazi are the only game in town.
        
               | qwerpy wrote:
               | My favored candidate may lose but I'll be fine regardless
               | of who is in power. I may pay more taxes or have to pay
               | extra for private schools, but I've budgeted for that.
               | You can still call it "winning" against me if that helps
               | you feel better though.
        
               | kdheiwns wrote:
               | I think we're beyond the point of "you can't criticize
               | them. That's mean and motivates them." At what point is
               | the line drawn? Should it be in bad taste to criticize
               | Orban supporters because it makes them support him more?
               | What about Erdogan? Putin? Kim Jong Un? And why is it one
               | sided that they can't be criticized, but it's all fair
               | and good for their own leaders to demonize everyone? It's
               | a silly double standard and people see through it now.
               | Concern trolling stopped being effective years ago.
        
               | Jensson wrote:
               | If you want to win elections, yes. You never convince
               | voters by telling them that they are evil people. Its
               | fine to say Trump is evil, its not fine to say Trump
               | voters are evil because those voters will now be much
               | less likely to vote for you. They can't take back their
               | votes, they already voted for Trump before, so they will
               | just not vote for you when you attack them like that.
        
               | kdheiwns wrote:
               | Dems have tried the strategy of pandering to republicans
               | for decades. That strategy in 2024 backfired and made
               | Dems not care about the election. The whole time
               | republicans ran a campaign saying that blue haired
               | democrats are harming kids and they're burning down
               | cities and someone needs to lock them up all up.
               | Republicans had a great election year.
               | 
               | Again, one sided. People are tired of it. More
               | importantly, people are growing tired of the tolerance
               | for the people who support the current happenings. Look
               | around about what people who stayed out of the 2024
               | election said and it's that Dems were milquetoast and
               | tried to be friendly and play both sides. Look around and
               | see why republicans were fired up to vote. It's because
               | they loved the demonization of Dems.
               | 
               | The funny thing is you can criticize the supporters. It's
               | no problem. You can criticize Bush voters and everyone
               | will agree with you. Why? Because nobody voted for Bush.
               | Yet he won two elections. Meaning those people regretted
               | their vote and now completely hide that they voted for
               | him. They also retroactively hate the Iraq War, despite
               | supporting it in 2003 and saying anyone who opposes it is
               | unamerican. But those people will now say Dems started
               | the war.
               | 
               | Trying to pull those people over is like trying to
               | wrestle with a greased pig. No kind words will ever be
               | enough to grab them. They're incredibly loyal to their
               | side no matter what, and will deny ever supporting it the
               | moment social pressure builds up too much. But
               | interestingly, they also respect anger and vitriol
               | against those they feel betrayed them. Republicans loved
               | voting for Trump because he said he was against neocons
               | and the Iraq War and all those people who voted for them.
               | If Trump ever falls out of favor, those people who once
               | supported him won't be begging for leniency. They'll put
               | on a new hat and demand revenge against him and his
               | supporters. They don't want a both aisles softy. They'll
               | just pretend they were always against him.
        
               | Jensson wrote:
               | > That strategy in 2024 backfired and made Dems not care
               | about the election
               | 
               | Are you saying democrats didn't vote for Kamala since
               | Kamala didn't call Trump voters evil? What are you on
               | about? I see no reason why you should call Trump voters
               | evil.
               | 
               | As I said its fine to call Trump evil, but why call the
               | voters evil? What purpose does that serve?
        
               | ceejayoz wrote:
               | > Are you saying democrats didn't vote for Kamala since
               | Kamala didn't call Trump voters evil?
               | 
               | Dems were disillusioned by the Biden administration's
               | lack of meaningful effort to nail the previous
               | administration's criminals to the wall. Merrick Garland
               | was an absolute failure.
               | 
               | Add in things like cozying up to the Cheneys, and the
               | incorrect assumption Trump II would be similar to Trump
               | I.
        
               | amalcon wrote:
               | Republicans have been calling democratic voters baby-
               | killers for the entire time I have been aware of what a
               | republican is. This sort of behavior has only gotten
               | worse over time. They still manage to win elections.
               | 
               | I get that there are real asymmetries here, but I really
               | don't think there are substantial blocs of swing voters
               | who use "who has insulted them less" as a real factor. If
               | that were the case, Trump would not have made the gains
               | he did in 2024.
               | 
               | The important thing is to make people feel welcome in
               | your coalition. It is clearly possible to do that either
               | with or without being nice. It's just a different
               | skillset.
        
               | jibal wrote:
               | I'm not about to bite my tongue for this absurd cowardly
               | fallacious reason.
        
               | thisislife2 wrote:
               | What you say is insightful and true. The west, America in
               | particular, has a genuine problem today with its politics
               | of polarising people to extremes. It partly has to do
               | with how politics is done online in the internet, through
               | the creation of "echo chambers" where no "dissent" is
               | tolerated.
        
               | LeFantome wrote:
               | One third of Americans voted Democrat.
               | 
               | One third voted Republican.
               | 
               | One third did not vote.
               | 
               | I hold the last group most responsible.
        
               | shrubby wrote:
               | One group voted for nicely speaking tax free
               | zillionaires. Another one voted for hate speaking
               | zillionaires.
               | 
               | Third one didn't want to vote for zillionaires.
               | 
               | Perhaps next time there'll be someone to vote not
               | representing the zillionaire-class?
        
               | PowerElectronix wrote:
               | It's hard to blame it on people not voting for options
               | that suck and do not represent their political stance.
        
               | ceejayoz wrote:
               | Bless your heart, you're doing the cartoon.
               | 
               | https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/8/8/1786532/-Cartoo
               | n-Y...
               | 
               | Why are all the Democrats Fox News (and the actual
               | _President of the United States_ himself) does a
               | "constant drum beat of disdain and hate towards" not
               | doing the same thing? Why is this only a concern on one
               | side?
        
               | jibal wrote:
               | That's a completely intellectually bankrupt argument that
               | blames good people for the actions of bad people. It
               | doesn't have a shred of fact or logic to support it.
        
               | yongjik wrote:
               | Everything Trump has done since he was re-elected made
               | Democrats hate him more, and more publicly, and you know
               | what, despite that Trump's ratings have steadily fallen.
               | 
               | If your thesis is true, you'd expect Trump's ratings to
               | go up.
               | 
               | As far as I can see, partisan hatred doesn't matter,
               | because pretty much everybody speaking and listening to
               | such rhetorics have already made up their minds. The
               | battle is fought in the middle, and these people don't
               | care about latest Truth Social posts. They care about the
               | price of gas.
               | 
               | Trump fucked with the one thing people will not forget
               | about, because their livelihood depends on it. It's going
               | to be... interesting.
        
             | none2585 wrote:
             | It may even be Trump again! Wouldn't be surprised if we see
             | some movement towards removing presidential term limits.
             | They weren't always in place and they can be removed again.
        
             | b0rtb0rt wrote:
             | why is it that democrats always assume they are the correct
             | side and that everyone else agrees with them?
        
             | gffrd wrote:
             | > They would rather suffer and destroy America just so the
             | democrats don't win.
             | 
             | This is true.
             | 
             | Which raises the question: could Democrats use this reality
             | (whatever they touch is poisoned, in eyes of the other
             | side) to steer the result a bit?
        
           | gosub100 wrote:
           | My hope is that this will show weaknesses in our supposed
           | "checks and balances" that can be patched later. If that
           | means it takes an act of congress to even fire a single
           | military weapon, so be it. That's just one example, but
           | basically "they" need to backtrack and find every "hack"
           | trump used and plug it so this never happens again.
        
             | freedomben wrote:
             | Agreed, but the problem is that whichever party is in power
             | wants to expand presidential authority, and only the
             | minority party wants to reign it in. When the president
             | flips, usually so do the parties in power. Plus you have to
             | be enough majority to override a presidential veto. I don't
             | see this ever workign out :-(
        
             | LeFantome wrote:
             | What "checks and balances"?
             | 
             | The SCOTUS ruled that presidents cannot be held
             | accountable.
             | 
             | The constitution is pretty clear. Trump does not have the
             | authority to invade Iran. Yet he did. What are you planning
             | to patch?
             | 
             | Despite everything, Trump has 35-40 percent approval right
             | now. You cannot patch that out.
        
               | gosub100 wrote:
               | the ones that were printed in my middle school government
               | McGraw Hill textbook...
        
               | ceejayoz wrote:
               | "First, your return to shore was not part of our
               | negotiations nor our agreement, so I must do nothing. And
               | secondly, you must be a pirate for the Pirate's Code to
               | apply, and you're not. And thirdly, the Code is more what
               | you'd call guidelines than actual rules."
               | 
               | Turns out that last bit is how the US was setup. Oops.
        
             | pjc50 wrote:
             | Checks and balances mean nothing when the same party
             | controls house, senate, president, and supreme court.
        
               | Jensson wrote:
               | And the military. Who the majority of soldiers supports
               | matters a lot since they have the final say when leaders
               | cannot agree. Trump does a lot to gain favor with the
               | military, democrats doesn't do much for them.
        
               | gosub100 wrote:
               | I disagree. Plenty of republicans are vociferously
               | disagreeing with Trump over Iran and Epstein. But even if
               | your premise is true, what if the two-party system were
               | constructed or manipulated by a foreign government with
               | the express intent on dividing us? Maybe that should be
               | addressed as well?
        
           | temp8830 wrote:
           | Approximately the same things were said about Dubya Jr's war
           | with invisible WMDs. If you've forgotten - listen to some
           | songs that came out at the time. It's not about a particular
           | president, it's that the US seems to have a systemic
           | dependency on starting these wars.
        
             | chaostheory wrote:
             | Back then we had approval from our coalition. We also
             | shared the spoils, which the Russians noted.
             | 
             | Also, none of the Bush's ran on an "America First"
             | isolationist political campaign. Even own base is
             | fracturing because of this.
        
             | LeFantome wrote:
             | Your point seems to be that the US has not changed.
             | Regardless, the world thinks it has.
             | 
             | The "coalition of the willing" is not behind the US this
             | time.
        
               | anjel wrote:
               | And so this Easter day a new oxymoron is born: the
               | coalition of the unwilling.
               | 
               | Do with that, in terms of foreign policy, what you will.
        
               | watwut wrote:
               | Why is that oxymoron? You can, in fact, have a coalition
               | focused on not doing something.
        
               | Jensson wrote:
               | Yeah, its called home owners associations, NIMBY etc.
        
               | layer8 wrote:
               | The unwilling don't particularly coalise.
        
             | micromacrofoot wrote:
             | and we're still experiencing damage from that war, and it's
             | getting worse because of some things that it changed
             | (patriot act, creation of homeland security, etc)
             | 
             | we've faced two major recessions since then and may very
             | well be entering our third
             | 
             | at this point it seems we're just trying to find out where
             | the breaking point is
        
             | SecretDreams wrote:
             | Information, both good and bad, is a lot more accessible
             | this time around. It has been a dramatic accelerator to
             | worldly views of America in the wake of their recent
             | actions.
             | 
             | There are political similarities between the two
             | aforementioned wars, but the social and technological
             | backdrops are quite different, and they're working against
             | US public perception. Furthermore, decorum is entirely gone
             | this time around, which isn't helping.
        
             | kakacik wrote:
             | Whole world would weep with joy if somebody like Bush jr
             | would come into power now. Even when talking about that
             | cocaine nepo kid of his cia chief father. I recall those
             | times and emotions well from european perspective, not
             | everybody here is 20-something.
             | 
             | These 2 are incomparable on any level. If you want to say
             | it can always get worse that I can agree with.
        
           | nozzlegear wrote:
           | > _Perhaps, I hope, Americans will take action to save the
           | democratic norms and institutions that so many of them have
           | claimed to cherish. Before he has dismantled and replaced too
           | many to salvage. Or perhaps they have work tomorrow._
           | 
           | I'm going to take action by voting in November. Or are you
           | suggesting revolution is more prudent, that I should put my
           | life on the line right now because the global economy is a
           | little fucky?
        
             | vntok wrote:
             | Interesting question. Do you believe that waiting is fine
             | because the election will be fair in November?
        
               | nozzlegear wrote:
               | Yes? I've been a poll worker for every election since
               | 2018, I have no reason to believe they won't be this time
               | around. Do you have reason to believe that Trump isn't
               | just full of hot air, bluster and bullshit like usual
               | (TACO)?
        
               | vntok wrote:
               | Well yes, of course. For example this a month or so ago
               | seems worrying: https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/a
               | rticle/2026/02/14/t...
               | 
               | > US President Donald Trump, on Friday, February 13,
               | _threatened to try to bypass Congress and force new
               | voting laws_ ahead of the November midterm elections,
               | where his Republican Party fears losing control of the
               | legislature. Trump said he would soon _issue an executive
               | order_ attempting to impose the rules if Congress does
               | not pass a law requiring photo identification to vote and
               | other nationwide reforms.
               | 
               | > "There will be Voter ID for the Midterm Elections,
               | _whether approved by Congress or_ not! " Trump wrote on
               | his Truth Social platform. "If we can't get it through
               | Congress, there are Legal reasons why this SCAM is not
               | permitted. I will be presenting them shortly, in the form
               | of an Executive Order," he wrote.
        
               | convolvatron wrote:
               | that makes absolute sense. on one hand legally voting
               | process is delegated to the states, and we can argue
               | about to what degree congress might be able to impose
               | federal standards. but an executive order has absolutely
               | no bearing on the situation legally.
               | 
               | but if you believe, as many people claim to, than an
               | executive order is actually a federal law, then if some
               | blue state decides to ignore such an executive order,
               | then you can claim that the election process was tainted,
               | illegal, and illegitimate. maybe you can even round up
               | all the ballots in order to perform an 'investigation'.
               | maybe send federal officers to check IDs. all kinds of
               | things.
        
             | bathtub365 wrote:
             | The sooner regime change comes in the US, the better.
        
           | swarnie wrote:
           | > 2 years and 9 months remain
           | 
           | You think.
           | 
           | Peaceful transfers of power are always tricky in younger
           | democracies.
        
             | Arubis wrote:
             | My strong suspicion is that the current POTUS will leave
             | the White House in a box. My hope is that this precedes the
             | next election cycle.
        
               | actionfromafar wrote:
               | Do you think the ThielVance will leave peacefully?
        
               | bebop wrote:
               | They don't have the cult of personality to hold on to
               | power in the same way djt does.
        
               | actionfromafar wrote:
               | Who needs personality when you got your own stormtroopers
               | with guns?
        
               | Jensson wrote:
               | The standard dictatorial takeover of a democracy is to
               | keep the elections and the presidency, but to add a
               | supreme leader above the president, similar to what Iran
               | or Russia or China is doing. So Trump would no longer be
               | president, he would be supreme leader joining what the
               | other world powers are doing.
        
               | ceejayoz wrote:
               | > add a supreme leader above the president, similar to
               | what Iran or Russia or China is doing
               | 
               | This is trivially debunked.
               | 
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_Russia
        
           | andy_ppp wrote:
           | If you could design a perfect plan to destroy the United
           | States, Donald Trump, probably through sheer buffoonish
           | incompetence seems to be implementing it.
        
             | SilverElfin wrote:
             | I don't think he's incompetent. He's actually quite good at
             | extracting wealth for himself/family/donors/friends out of
             | whatever the administration is doing.
             | 
             | Iran is a distraction from the Epstein files, and the fact
             | that many from the Trump circle appear in it - Trump
             | himself, some of his children, Elon Musk, Steve Bannon,
             | Peter Thiel, etc.
             | 
             | The war with Iran is also a way to make a few more
             | suspicious trades on the market swings, especially the ones
             | following each speech or decision. It would be easy to time
             | trades if you know what will happen because you're deciding
             | it.
             | 
             | The US may be destroyed but it's because it's just
             | collateral damage to the billionaires and Epstein class.
             | Not because they're incompetent. We need to contain their
             | wealth and power with totally new laws.
        
               | throw310822 wrote:
               | You mistake for competence his greed and that of those
               | who surround him. I don't think there was a plan to
               | profit from the disaster; rather, they're so incompetent
               | that they even lack the basic self-control to avoid
               | publicly taking advantage of the mess they unwillingly
               | caused, however bad and dangerous that might be.
        
               | Jensson wrote:
               | I imagine Trump wanted to do some fun new things when he
               | is old and will soon die. Its not many who get to
               | experience what it feels like to start a war and kill
               | world leaders, and when you are gonna die soon anyway why
               | not?
        
               | sieste wrote:
               | I think this is the correct lense. He's a malignant
               | narcissist on his way out, with absolutely nobody to stop
               | him.
               | 
               | I'm genuinely worried that he secretly wants to go down
               | in history as the crazy guy who set the oil fields on
               | fire and dropped a nuke on Tehran or something.
        
               | throw310822 wrote:
               | Not sure what moves Trump- could be any of that or more.
               | What we all know is that Netanyahu and Kushner found this
               | and used it to get what they wanted. This is not Trump's
               | war, he's not the initiator and he doesn't have goals of
               | his own (though at times he might believe he does). It
               | actually contradicts what he campaigned on for years.
        
           | aaa_aaa wrote:
           | Not one individual. You forgot the ones put the yoke.
        
           | shrubby wrote:
           | Modus operandi for the leading democracy in the world has
           | been war also before. Now it's only bit more erratic and
           | honest.
           | 
           | I sure hope that after this the return won't be the previous
           | normal.
        
             | cyberge99 wrote:
             | Honest? Trump is the most dishonest president in history.
             | He literally says two diametrically opposite things: - we
             | don't need any oil - open up the strait or else severe
             | consequences Which is it? Only fools think his opacity is a
             | feature not a terrible bug.
        
           | KellyCriterion wrote:
           | > take action to save the democratic
           | 
           | Im beting 1000 USD that Trump comes up with whatever
           | story/issue/incident to "manipulate" all upcoming elections
           | to his favour
        
             | petre wrote:
             | If the doesn't turn up as the first US president to
             | actually be impeached. You've got other two who got
             | assasinated. The right to bear arms mskes that sort of
             | thing a bit easier than impeachment.
        
               | ceejayoz wrote:
               | Andrew Johnson was the first US President to be
               | impeached.
               | 
               | Clinton too, then Trump twice.
        
               | petre wrote:
               | Didn't go through. None of them were removed from office.
        
               | ceejayoz wrote:
               | > None of them were removed from office.
               | 
               | Correct. But that's not because they weren't impeached.
               | 
               | Impeachment is part of the process; three presidents have
               | been impeached, Trump twice. Then comes the trial, and
               | conviction/acquittal.
        
           | augusto-moura wrote:
           | Thing is, that is not just the individual, the world lost the
           | trust in the american vote. Trump was elected twice, it is
           | easy to imagine that another megalomaniac might be elected
           | next.
           | 
           | In a democratic system, the ruler is a reflection of the
           | majority of the population. Of course it can change during
           | the course of the administration (as seen in the approval
           | ratings), but the trust is lost and most countries now
           | believe that, one way or another, the majority of the US
           | population agree with some of the ideas behind Trump. The
           | damage will not stop by the end of Trump's administration, it
           | is truly the end of multilateralism as we knew it
        
           | simgt wrote:
           | How many people voted for that "one individual causing chaos"
           | again? 70 million? He's also backed by billionaires and an
           | administration that seems to be just as unhinged. It's not
           | one person causing chaos, it's a whole country with its
           | violent culture. The scale changed slightly, but it's also
           | nothing new.
        
             | villedespommes wrote:
             | This. There are really two explanations here. Either the US
             | hasn't been a democracy in the first place. Or the majority
             | of the US voters prefer autocratic amoral psychopaths
             | running their country.
        
               | pas wrote:
               | Brits also voted to leave the EU where they had the
               | absurdly privileged position of picking (almost freely)
               | which rules applies to them, while benefiting from others
               | applying them fully.
               | 
               | ...
               | 
               | Democracy is only as good as the people doing the voting,
               | who are about as good (as the rules they don't protest
               | againsts) and the content they consume, which is about as
               | good as certain groups make it to be.
        
           | Cyph0n wrote:
           | 1. A non-trivial proportion of us voted for Trump.
           | 
           | 2. Blatantly kidnapping and assassinating heads of state is
           | the culmination of US foreign policy and _not_ an anomaly.
           | The machine is working as designed.
           | 
           | The only foreign policy blunders I would attribute to Trump
           | are the completely unnecessary spats with Canada and
           | Denmark/the EU, although neither blunder seems to have made a
           | dent in the ass kissing.
        
           | csa wrote:
           | > It is a fact that the reputation of the USA has being
           | damaged, perhaps not repairable for decades or more.
           | 
           | The MAGA base does not care about the international
           | reputation of the US. They lean heavily towards isolationism
           | (irrationally, imho).
        
         | ndiddy wrote:
         | > And yet the US is now back to threatening Iran if they don't
         | open up the oil.
         | 
         | Trump's most recent statement (
         | https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/1163519987825...
         | ):
         | 
         | "Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped
         | up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the
         | Fuckin' Strait, you crazy bastards, or you'll be living in Hell
         | - JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah. President DONALD J. TRUMP"
        
           | vkou wrote:
           | Given the events of the past month...
           | 
           | Are we at a point where we can conclusively say that the
           | United States is a country that wants to wipe Iran off the
           | face of the Earth?
           | 
           | Bombing them into the stone age where they belong, complete
           | destruction of them, no quarter, decapitation strikes, bridge
           | day, etc?
        
           | morkalork wrote:
           | He's thiiiiiisss >< close to threatening to drop a nuke on
           | Tehran isn't he
        
             | rockemsockem wrote:
             | Go back to Reddit where you belong
        
               | morkalork wrote:
               | If you're going to judge people's quality of online
               | commentary, I can think of a "bigger fish to fry" than
               | myself. They're even quoted in this very thread!
        
           | rchaud wrote:
           | There was a time when The Onion might have run a headline
           | like "Concerned over low troop morale, President converts to
           | Islam to inspire spirit of martyrdom". No more.
        
         | The_Goonies1985 wrote:
         | >And yet the US is now back to threatening Iran...
         | 
         | It's not you specifically, but there's a broader sociological
         | problem where we anthropomorphize countries and then claim they
         | are doing things.
         | 
         | The average person in the US is not threatening Iran, and
         | rationally the US cannot be said to be threatening Iran. What's
         | happening is that an elite clique of Epstein-adjacent legacy-
         | power-trolls (aka The US Government) are threatening Iran.
         | 
         | The US does not have legs, arms, or hands, it cannot _do_
         | anything. This turn of phrase in which the US (or any country)
         | _does_ something is a semantic-contraption of legacy-power
         | designed to make citizens (whether left, right, or undecided)
         | feel psychologically-responsible for the actions of a
         | entrenched-class of elite-warmongers who do not represent them;
         | and have not represented them for, likely, thousands of years.
        
         | Matl wrote:
         | Israel wants to completely destroy Iran so than no one would be
         | willing to in any way challenge its occupation of Palestine,
         | nor its ambition to expand into Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Egypt
         | and beyond.
         | 
         | Then there's an element of extremist Christian ideology from
         | Pete H. etc.
         | 
         | Hormuz has little to do with it, it's just an excuse to destroy
         | Iran.
         | 
         | Trump has been convinced that the Iranians are after him, plus
         | there's the Epstein kompromat that the Israelis have on him.
         | He's the only US president compromised enough to destroy Iran
         | for them, war crimes and all.
        
           | postsantum wrote:
           | The oil narrative is what worked after Iraq war and I am
           | afraid it will work now
        
         | Hamuko wrote:
         | > _And yet the US is now back to threatening Iran if they don
         | 't open up the oil._
         | 
         | Because no matter how much they pretend it doesn't affect the
         | US, oil is a global market.
        
       | soared wrote:
       | This seems like one of the first very clear indications that
       | separating your country from the US can be beneficial. The first
       | stone unturned - will we see more countries aligning with other
       | powers?
        
         | Jensson wrote:
         | France and Japan never distanced themselves from USA here.
         | 
         | I imagine France threatened to enter the conflict and that is
         | why they got it, Iran did kill a french soldier after all, just
         | that normally such threats happens behind closed doors so we
         | just see the outcome.
         | 
         | The current Japanese leader is also a war mongerer, so I'd bet
         | they also threatened to enter the war on USA's side if their
         | ships weren't allowed to pass. The countries like Spain that
         | takes Iran's side hasn't gotten their ships through yet, that
         | seems like a weaker strategy.
        
           | watwut wrote:
           | What are on about now? France explicitely and vocally refused
           | to enter the war. That is why their tanker passed.
        
             | Jensson wrote:
             | If that was true many more tankers would have passed from
             | other countries that were more against the war.
             | 
             | France is one of few countries with large military presence
             | in the area, that is the only thing they do more than most
             | other countries.
             | 
             | Edit: And France even directly threatened to use force
             | here. If you only read American news you wouldn't know
             | since they want it to seem like the world is on Irans side
             | here. What we are seeing is that Iran has started buckling
             | to these threats, not that they are giving passage to those
             | who didn't threaten.
             | 
             | > France is advising Bahrain on a draft United Nations
             | Security Council resolution that would authorize the use of
             | force to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore global
             | energy flows, according to three diplomats informed of the
             | process.
             | 
             | https://www.politico.eu/article/france-advising-bahrain-
             | un-s...
        
               | watwut wrote:
               | Spanish tankers are going through. Filipinian and Indian
               | too.
               | 
               | Again, what are you on about.
               | 
               | France was one of 3 countries that literally blocked UN
               | resolution about opening straight by force. And president
               | repeatedly called it "impossible".
               | 
               | You read weird news if you thing "a threat" of anything
               | is making iran to let ships pass. Money and
               | noninvolvement do.
        
               | Jensson wrote:
               | > Spanish tankers are going through
               | 
               | No they are not, this French ship was the first European
               | tanker going through.
        
               | vntok wrote:
               | "X is doing B" and "Y was the first to do B" can both be
               | true at the same time.
        
               | ReflectedImage wrote:
               | The Spanish tankers aren't going through because there
               | aren't any Spanish tankers that operate in that region.
               | 
               | Spain has permission from Iran to send through tankers if
               | it indeed had some.
        
               | expedition32 wrote:
               | Nobody is on Iran's side. The world is not black and
               | white.
               | 
               | Most countries want STABILITY not WAR. Yes Iranian regime
               | is evil. Yes they kill people. And no that's not worth
               | bombing them over.
               | 
               | There are politicians who actually THINK and do
               | CALCULATIONS. This war has probably already cost the
               | global economy a trillion USD.
        
               | kakacik wrote:
               | Certain people in power dont care about global trillions
               | lost, rather billions they earned for themselves in
               | insider trading. Quite a few articles in recent weeks
               | pointing out billion+ moves just before some potus
               | announcement.
               | 
               | Also, US is certainly gaining here from high oil prices
               | since its not an optional luxury rather a necessity for
               | entire economies.
        
               | stinkbeetle wrote:
               | Many people don't think Ukraine is worth resisting Russia
               | over either. But as you just said, the world is not black
               | and white. Your decree of what is and is not worthwhile
               | to do, is nothing more than that.
        
             | maratc wrote:
             | France also joined China and Russia in blocking Bahreini
             | resolution that would authorise "all defensive means
             | necessary" to protect commercial shipping in the strait.
             | _That_ is why their tanker passed.
        
               | petre wrote:
               | _All defensive means_ can mean anything. Like a military
               | escort that would shoot back at Iran in case of an
               | attack, which amounts to further escalation.
        
               | maratc wrote:
               | Not arguing about what that can mean; all I'm saying is
               | that France and Iran exchanged favours.
        
               | petre wrote:
               | I wouldn't call non escalation a favour. It should be
               | standard practice.
        
               | maratc wrote:
               | I wouldn't call "letting a tanker pass in international
               | waters without blowing it up" a favour either.
        
             | petre wrote:
             | France also has a problem with Israel waging war in
             | Lebanon, a former French administered teritory. As long as
             | Israel sticks to eliminating Hezbollah only, they'll shut
             | up about it, but anything beyond that, like that bridge
             | bombing or displacing and killing civilians it's bound to
             | have a negative reaction from France.
        
           | Shank wrote:
           | > The current Japanese leader is also a war mongerer, so I'd
           | bet they also threatened to enter the war on USA's side if
           | their ships weren't allowed to pass.
           | 
           | The amount of misinformation foreign people have about
           | Takaichi-san is staggering. She is by no means a "war
           | mongerer" and the Japanese constitution has clear limits that
           | prevent Japan from doing virtually anything. The reason why
           | Japan can get a pass is because they specifically have
           | diplomatic relations with Iran, and when she met with Trump,
           | she promised absolutely nothing due to constitutional limits.
        
             | Jensson wrote:
             | Why would she promise anything to Trump? She just wants
             | Iran to let them through, USA isn't blocking anyone here,
             | USA isn't a part of that conversation.
        
             | b0rtb0rt wrote:
             | why are you adding japanese honorifics when the rest of
             | your post is in english?
        
               | adrian_b wrote:
               | In non-English texts it is not unusual to see English
               | honorifics like Sir, Lord, Lady, Duke etc. or even Dr.,
               | Mr., Mrs.
               | 
               | Similarly, in English texts it is not unusual to see
               | foreign honorifics besides the actual names.
               | 
               | It is quite frequent for someone who otherwise does not
               | speak another language to address foreigners as they
               | would be addressed in their own language in formal
               | situations where politeness is expected, e.g. using Herr
               | or Frau for a German, and so on, or using Takaichi-san or
               | Takaichi-sama (more formal) instead of translating that
               | to Mrs. Takaichi.
               | 
               | I think that when speaking about a prime minister, formal
               | language is not inappropriate.
               | 
               | Trump is probably the most obvious chief of state whose
               | name would look completely inappropriate in the context
               | of using formal polite language, but this should have
               | been an exception.
        
             | simgt wrote:
             | The most an average person in the west knows about Takaichi
             | is that she "said" Japan would go to war with China for
             | Taiwan. That's of course not true, but the person you're
             | replying to also thinks Spain is on Iran's side. They are
             | clearly misinformed or lying to fit their narrative.
        
           | Maken wrote:
           | The only countries going to war with Iran are Israel and USA.
           | The other countries are negotiating with Iran and reportedly
           | paying the toll. Also, the strait has been open to Spanish
           | tankers since two weeks ago.
        
             | Jensson wrote:
             | > Also, the strait has been open to Spanish tankers since
             | two weeks ago.
             | 
             | But no Spanish tankers have gone through so that doesn't
             | seem to be accurate. An Iranian diplomat saying that
             | publicly doesn't matter when the irgc continues to shoot
             | them. The only known European aligned tanker to have gone
             | through is this French one we are reading about here.
        
             | thisislife2 wrote:
             | While there are reports that Iran has been charging a toll
             | on some ships from "hostile" countries, there is no such
             | report suggesting that the French, Japanese and Omani ships
             | cited in this news report did so too.
             | 
             | In this particular case, it is a diplomatic and reciprocal
             | gesture of goodwill from Iran - the French have publicly
             | said that joint military operations to open the Strait is a
             | bad a idea and diplomatic options need to be pursued for
             | the same while the Japanese have confirmed that they won't
             | be sending any minesweepers to the Strait ( _Japan Isn't
             | Sending Minesweepers to Middle East, Takaichi Says_ -
             | https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-12/japan-
             | isn... ). Oman, of course, has been the mediator in the
             | early US-Iran negotiations, and has publicly said Iran
             | cannot be blamed for the US-Israel attacks ( _' This war is
             | not of their making,' Omani foreign minister says of Iran_
             | - https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/war-not-their-making-
             | oman... ) as it had accepted a new nuclear deal with the
             | Trump administration during the negotiations ( _Peace
             | 'within reach' as Iran agrees no nuclear material
             | stockpile: Oman FM_ -
             | https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/28/peace-within-
             | reach-... ). He has blamed the Trump administration for
             | undermining negotiations and implied that they acted in bad
             | faith.
        
           | tarkin2 wrote:
           | France has distanced itself from Israel recently; Israel is
           | refusing to buy more French military equipment
        
             | YZF wrote:
             | This is just a culmination of the last two years of
             | tension. The most recent friction is around Lebanon where
             | France sees itself as the protector of its former colony.
             | 
             | Interesting take from Le Monde: "Israel turns its back on
             | France as Paris struggles to maintain dialogue"
             | 
             | https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2026/04/01/
             | i...
        
           | ceejayoz wrote:
           | > France and Japan never distanced themselves from USA here.
           | 
           | Trump sure seems to think France did.
           | 
           | https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/31/trump-attacks-uk-france-x-
           | po...
           | 
           | "President Donald Trump on Tuesday warned the U.K. and France
           | that the U.S. "won't be there to help you anymore," as he
           | vented his frustration over the close allies' refusal to join
           | military action against Iran."
        
           | jonplackett wrote:
           | Maybe do some research before just dispatching random
           | thoughts
           | 
           | https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/europe/2026/04/03/franc.
           | ..
        
           | 54agfvb wrote:
           | Yes, France did: It went with Russia and China in the revised
           | and postponed UN resolution that does _not_ mention use of
           | force to reopen Hormuz.
        
           | anigbrowl wrote:
           | Complete nonsense, easily debunked. You should be embarrassed
           | to post this.
        
       | andy_ppp wrote:
       | There's every chance that the US loses the trust of the GCC
       | countries and they choose to spend their oil money away from the
       | US should all of this madness ever calm down.
        
         | rchaud wrote:
         | It's extremely unlikely without a common currency and a
         | military alliance with larger, more populous states like Egypt
         | and Iraq. The former would be unacceptable as it would
         | represent a competitor to the Petrodollar, and the latter would
         | be a threat to Israel.
        
           | andy_ppp wrote:
           | One of the conditions Iran has placed on ships travelling
           | through the strait of Hormuz is that the oil is
           | traded/purchased in RMB.
        
       | tarkin2 wrote:
       | Israel recently refused to buy more French military equipment,
       | and France's relations with Israel is at a low; I'm wondering it
       | was the reason the French vessel was allowed through.
        
         | alephnerd wrote:
         | France hasn't bought Israeli weapons systems and vice versa for
         | years, so it's just a quick populist win with 0 practical
         | implications either way.
         | 
         | That said, French and Israeli vendors like Thales, IAI,
         | Dassault, Rafael, Elbit, etc still collaborate closely becuase
         | they are both OEMs, vendors, and JV partners in Indian defense
         | deals that integrate both into Indian weapons systems -
         | especially as both are integrated (along with Russian and
         | indigenous weapons systems) with what is become Indians version
         | of the Iron and Steel dome [0][1]. Vietnam is mandating the
         | same thing as part of their 2045 Drone manufacturing strategy
         | [2].
         | 
         | And both MIC ecosystems still collaborate together on defense
         | deals back in Armenia, Cyprus, and Greece.
         | 
         | Most countries that historically had a Soviet/Russian kit are
         | now mandating French+Israeli interoperability becuase of
         | India's success at using it to replace older Soviet or Russian
         | systems where possible.
         | 
         | [0] - https://www.thalesgroup.com/en/news-centre/press-
         | releases/th...
         | 
         | [1] - https://www.israeldefense.co.il/en/node/64841
         | 
         | [2] - https://www.intelligenceonline.fr/asie-
         | pacifique/2026/03/02/...
        
           | YZF wrote:
           | I think there has been some low volume defense trade in both
           | directions.
           | 
           | What some people seem to forget is that France and Israel
           | also compete over some of the same defense deals. There was
           | these incidents where France banned Israeli companies from
           | some defense shows:
           | 
           | https://www.politico.eu/article/france-bans-israeli-
           | companie...
           | 
           | https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20250616-france-
           | blocks...
        
             | alephnerd wrote:
             | Yep, but the biggest customer and JV partner for both the
             | French and Israeli MIC (India) ensures that they cooperate,
             | as India has forced both to create JVs owned and operated
             | by Indian SOEs and transfer IP and manufacturing capacity
             | as a result.
             | 
             | And French companies are fine with that - as can be seen by
             | Thales [0], Safran [1] and Rafael (IL) [2] working on
             | Indian JVs for India's Rafale [3] and Tejas [1]
             | requirements.
             | 
             | It's cheap for French politicans to make pronouncements
             | (and given how competitive the 2027 election is going to
             | be, Macron has no choice but to resort to such populism),
             | but French Inc ignores it and carries on because business
             | is more important.
             | 
             | It's the same reason why Dassault bluntly rejected German
             | input on SCAF [4] and why France's Safran and Russia's UAC
             | are working with India's HAL to indigenize the SJ-100 [5].
             | And now that the UAE has pulled out of Dassault's F5
             | program [6], they are even more dependent on India.
             | 
             | As I've mentioned before on HN, French and American
             | business culture are very similar.
             | 
             | Even Vietnam is starting to turn the screws on France,
             | especially now that En Marche's Stephanie Do has now become
             | a lobbyist [7] for FPT's defense arm [8] which is partially
             | owned by Vietnam's KGB (the MPS/BCA).
             | 
             | It's the same kind of arm-twisting China used in the
             | 1980s-2000s and 1990s-2010s respectively to force Israel
             | [9] and Russia [10][11] to transfer IP for China's J-XX
             | program, except both India and Vietnam are applying such
             | arm-twisting on France on top of the other two.
             | 
             | And Macron and all the other centrists politicans cannot do
             | anything against Dassault, Thales, etc lest they switch to
             | supporting Bardella and RN like Bollore [12] and Sterin
             | [13] are doing. Macron himself is only in power because
             | Arnault [14] and his son-in-law (and CEO of Scaleway)
             | Xavier Niels [15].
             | 
             | [0] -
             | https://www.asdnews.com/news/aerospace/2022/07/21/iai-
             | select...
             | 
             | [1] -
             | https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-25/india-
             | to-...
             | 
             | [2] - https://gbp.com.sg/stories/rafael-eyes-ice-breaker-
             | spike-lr2...
             | 
             | [3] - https://aviationweek.com/defense/aircraft-
             | propulsion/dassaul...
             | 
             | [4] - https://aviationweek.com/defense/aircraft-
             | propulsion/dassaul...
             | 
             | [5] - https://idrw.org/original-sam146-engine-likely-to-
             | power-indi...
             | 
             | [6] - https://www.latribune.fr/article/defense-
             | aerospatiale/defens...
             | 
             | [7] - https://www.tst-consulting.fr/
             | 
             | [8] - https://www.intelligenceonline.fr/asie-
             | pacifique/2026/04/03/...
             | 
             | [9] - https://www.nytimes.com/1993/10/12/world/israel-
             | selling-chin...
             | 
             | [10] - https://thediplomat.com/2010/12/how-chinas-jets-
             | threaten-rus...
             | 
             | [11] - https://asia.nikkei.com/politics/international-
             | relations/rus...
             | 
             | [12] - https://www.mediapart.fr/journal/culture-et-
             | idees/dossier/la...
             | 
             | [13] -
             | https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/22/world/europe/pierre-
             | eduoa...
             | 
             | [14] -
             | https://www.lemonde.fr/en/politics/article/2023/08/07/how-
             | be...
             | 
             | [15] - https://www.lemonde.fr/en/les-
             | decodeurs/article/2022/07/10/u...
        
         | LunaSea wrote:
         | Israel also recently killed three UN soldiers and bombarded
         | positions a few meters away from french soldiers. The french
         | ministry of defence wasn't exactly thrilled with this.
        
         | clydethefrog wrote:
         | They announced they will veto military actions to open Straight
         | of Hormuz in the UN security council.
        
       | 54agfvb wrote:
       | That is a good move from Iran. The EU is tired of US induced
       | wars, tired of Greenland threats and just wants to focus on its
       | economy.
       | 
       | In a US war you always have to ask yourself if you do exactly
       | what the US wants in secret. Here it could very well be that the
       | Gulf monarchies are deliberately weakened and the EU/Japan/China
       | are cut off from fossil fuels, so they are even more dependent on
       | the US.
        
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       (page generated 2026-04-05 23:01 UTC)