[HN Gopher] Renewables reached nearly 50% of global electricity ...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Renewables reached nearly 50% of global electricity capacity last
       year
        
       Author : Growtika
       Score  : 235 points
       Date   : 2026-04-02 15:26 UTC (7 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.theregister.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.theregister.com)
        
       | toomuchtodo wrote:
       | Report: https://www.irena.org/Publications/2026/Mar/Renewable-
       | capaci...
        
       | Ancalagon wrote:
       | Wait this is actually amazing, I had no idea it was that high. I
       | can't even believe what the US admin is doing, this is clearly
       | the winning technology.
        
         | toomuchtodo wrote:
         | https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/installed-solar-pv-capaci...
         | 
         | https://ourworldindata.org/renewable-energy
         | 
         | https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/modern-renewable-energy-c...
         | 
         | https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/indias-electrotech-...
         | 
         | (global solar PV deployment is just a bit below ~1TW/year at
         | current deployment rates)
        
           | cucumber3732842 wrote:
           | Installed capacity is a misleading number. If you assessed
           | the trucking industry by simply sum-ing the rated capacity of
           | all the hardware you'd be rightfully laughed and and called a
           | liar on the basis of all the times the trucks are empty and
           | all the trucks that run out of volume before weight.
           | Renewables is a similar situation.
           | 
           | Some panel in a solar farm in Canada is not gonna see the
           | conditions that let it produce rated capacity nearly as often
           | as one in Arizona. So the guy in Canada installs more
           | capacity to get the same power. Meanwhile the guy in Arizona
           | doesn't have enough copper leading out of his site to handle
           | the power he could produce at peak on the best days, because
           | he over-provisioned too, in order to be able to produce a
           | given amount earlier/later in the day. The actual generation
           | hardware is so cheap that this is just the sensible way to
           | deploy renewables, but it makes for stupid misleading
           | numbers.
           | 
           | Legacy power generation has much different numbers and isn't
           | subject to the whims of the weather so installed capacity is
           | a number that means something in that context.
        
             | toomuchtodo wrote:
             | This is a common rebuttal, but not grounded in reality.
             | Even assuming ~20% capacity factor for "apples to apples"
             | comparison to legacy thermal and nuclear, solar and
             | batteries are the cheapest form of power to install.
             | Current geopolitical events spiking LNG costs make the math
             | even more favorable towards renewables.
             | 
             | https://ember-energy.org/latest-updates/24-hour-solar-now-
             | ec...
             | 
             | https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/solar-
             | electricity-e... ("104$/MWh: Achieving 97% of the way to
             | 24/365 solar in very sunny regions is now affordable at as
             | low as $104/MWh, cheaper than coal and nuclear and 22% less
             | than a year earlier.")
             | 
             | > Legacy power generation has much different numbers and
             | isn't subject to the whims of the weather so installed
             | capacity is a number that means something in that context.
             | 
             | Legacy power is ridiculously expensive in comparison. Who
             | will invest in fossil gas generation when ~20% of LNG
             | exports have been taken offline for the next 3-5 years?
             | 
             | https://www.lazard.com/media/eijnqja3/lazards-lcoeplus-
             | june-... (page 8)
             | 
             |  _Strikes on Qatar 's LNG Ras Laffan plant Will Reshape the
             | Future of Fossil Gas_ -
             | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47484246 - March 2026
             | 
             | Fossil fuels are over, it's just how fast we get to "done."
             | Enough sunlight falls on the Earth in 30-60 minutes to
             | power humanity for a year. Solar PV and battery
             | manufacturing continues to spool up, and year by year, more
             | fossil generation is pushed out.
             | 
             | California is routinely operating at 80% renewables, 90%
             | low carbon generation during daylight hours as they work
             | towards installing battery storage to replace their fossil
             | generation (~52GW target by 2045), for example, while
             | having plans for 10s of GWs of additional solar to come
             | online over the next decade.
             | 
             | https://app.electricitymaps.com/map/zone/US-CAL-
             | CISO/live/fi...
             | 
             | https://www.energy.ca.gov/data-reports/energy-
             | almanac/califo...
             | 
             | https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/solar/were-
             | harvesting-t...
        
               | cucumber3732842 wrote:
               | I didn't say they weren't cheap. I said you were being
               | misleading. I'm not rebutting your thesis. I'm rebutting
               | your defense of it.
               | 
               | They're so cheap they get over-provisioned on purpose.
               | Can you imagine some guy speci'ng switchgear and
               | transmission lines for a coal or gas plant that can't
               | handle the plant running full tilt? Yeah me either. But
               | that's exactly how it's done for renewables because
               | that's where the sweet spot of cost-benifit is.
               | 
               | A dozen 10mw turbines might be fed through 100mw of
               | transmission hardware. They can never produce their rated
               | 120mw because liquid copper would happen if they did. But
               | they were intentionally provisioned that way so that
               | based on weather patterns and whatnot they'd be able to
               | expect say 80mw a certain number of days per year.
               | 
               | There are untold numbers of renewable installations out
               | there that cannot supply their nameplate capacity to the
               | grid in such a manner.
        
               | toomuchtodo wrote:
               | There is nothing wrong with over provisioning cheap
               | renewable power generation when it is economically
               | superior to building fossil assets that will end up
               | stranded. As long as grid demand is met and it is cheaper
               | to build renewables and batteries to do it, it will be
               | done, and that is the path we're on.
               | 
               | If gas plants cannot economically compete, they will not
               | be built or fired. And the evidence shows they cannot
               | compete, regardless of their competing capacity factor
               | and dispatchability.
        
               | pepperoni_pizza wrote:
               | Do you have some links to how someone scaled up storage?
               | I know that scaling up solar is easy, but I don't know of
               | any nation that build significant storage.
        
               | toomuchtodo wrote:
               | https://about.bnef.com/insights/clean-energy/global-
               | energy-s...
               | 
               | https://www.iea.org/commentaries/global-battery-markets-
               | are-...
               | 
               | https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false
               | &qu...
        
               | myrmidon wrote:
               | You are still arguing against a strawman. Cucumber3732842
               | is just saying that nameplate capacity is a
               | systematically flawed metric when comparing renewable
               | generation, because their capacity factor is consistently
               | lower than for conventional plants.
               | 
               | A better metric would simply be annual production, where
               | we're in the ~30% range globally
               | (https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-electricity-
               | renewab...). Even that comparison portraits renewables
               | very favorably, because dispatchable power is easier to
               | handle than the same output from intermittent sources.
               | 
               | If you look beyond electricity (heating/total primary
               | energy use) the picture gets even worse.
               | 
               | This is not an argument against renewables, this is
               | against premature cheering and misleading use of numbers.
        
               | toomuchtodo wrote:
               | I think you misunderstand. We are cheering trajectories,
               | not the point in time. Renewables and storage will
               | continue to be deployed, fossil fuels will remain
               | expensive, and build outs will continue over the next
               | decade or two. If these trajectories hold, and growth
               | rates continue to grow for clean energy deployments, what
               | happens? The outcome is obvious, is it not?
               | 
               | The thesis is simply this chart:
               | https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/installed-solar-pv-
               | capaci...
               | 
               | Of course, there is nuance, but the facts are that in the
               | next 10-20 years, renewables and storage will have
               | destroyed demand for fossil fuels for electrical
               | generation. That's progress. We might go faster or
               | slower, depending on policy and other factors, but this
               | is the trajectory we are currently on, based on the data
               | presented in this piece.
               | 
               | The Economist wrote a piece explaining this, if that is
               | helpful:
               | 
               |  _The exponential growth of solar power will change the
               | world_ -
               | https://www.economist.com/leaders/2024/06/20/the-
               | exponential... | https://archive.today/lp9pZ - June 20th,
               | 2024
               | 
               | > To call solar power's rise exponential is not
               | hyperbole, but a statement of fact. Installed solar
               | capacity doubles roughly every three years, and so grows
               | ten-fold each decade. Such sustained growth is seldom
               | seen in anything that matters. That makes it hard for
               | people to get their heads round what is going on. When it
               | was a tenth of its current size ten years ago, solar
               | power was still seen as marginal even by experts who knew
               | how fast it had grown. The next ten-fold increase will be
               | equivalent to multiplying the world's entire fleet of
               | nuclear reactors by eight in less than the time it
               | typically takes to build just a single one of them.
               | 
               | > Solar cells will in all likelihood be the single
               | biggest source of electrical power on the planet by the
               | mid 2030s. By the 2040s they may be the largest source
               | not just of electricity but of all energy. On current
               | trends, the all-in cost of the electricity they produce
               | promises to be less than half as expensive as the
               | cheapest available today. This will not stop climate
               | change, but could slow it a lot faster. Much of the world
               | --including Africa, where 600m people still cannot light
               | their homes--will begin to feel energy-rich. That feeling
               | will be a new and transformational one for humankind.
               | 
               | > To grasp that this is not some environmentalist fever
               | dream, consider solar economics. As the cumulative
               | production of a manufactured good increases, costs go
               | down. As costs go down, demand goes up. As demand goes
               | up, production increases--and costs go down further. This
               | cannot go on for ever; production, demand or both always
               | become constrained. In earlier energy transitions--from
               | wood to coal, coal to oil or oil to gas--the efficiency
               | of extraction grew, but it was eventually offset by the
               | cost of finding ever more fuel.
               | 
               | So! The transition is going fast (~1TW/year), and it is
               | likely to continue to increase in speed (more solar
               | manufacturing and battery storage will continue to be be
               | built year over year, increasing annual production and
               | deployment rates from today's rate(s)), based on all
               | available data and observations. This is the good news to
               | cheer. Nameplate and capacity factor arguments are
               | meaningless in this context. We are at the hockey stick
               | inflection point: look up.
        
               | Ancalagon wrote:
               | I am from the USA, and from the numbers it looks like
               | China will save the planet.
        
               | toomuchtodo wrote:
               | Strongly agree. China will soak the world in clean tech.
               | It is a component of their five year plans.
               | 
               | https://ember-energy.org/data/china-cleantech-export-
               | data/
               | 
               | > As the world's largest manufacturer of clean
               | technologies, data on China's cleantech exports provide
               | an important early insight into the pace and scale of the
               | energy transition. In 2024, China produced around 80% of
               | the world's solar PV modules and battery cells, and 70%
               | of electric vehicles.
               | 
               | Clean tech printer goes brrr.
        
               | B56b wrote:
               | This forum is oddly hesitant to accept good news, a weird
               | feature of online communities.
        
               | jacquesm wrote:
               | And is irrationally in love with nuclear power.
        
               | dalyons wrote:
               | this should be the top comment, it neatly captures almost
               | everything important about this moment.
        
               | chickenbig wrote:
               | > There is nothing wrong with over provisioning cheap
               | renewable power generation when it is economically
               | superior to building fossil assets that will end up
               | stranded.
               | 
               | Solar cannibalises solar, so the price when the sun
               | shines may tend to zero, but that does not ensure the
               | price to the consumer of the electricity they need tends
               | to zero, or even lower than it was.
        
               | toomuchtodo wrote:
               | Australia is currently giving away free power for the
               | peak three hours of sunlight a day, due to solar
               | overcapacity until battery uptake increases. They are
               | also working on a market scheme to transition primary
               | grid services from thermal generators to battery storage.
               | 
               | They only have 22GW of coal generation remaining to
               | replace, which should take no longer than 5-10 years.
               | These generators are already at the end of their life, so
               | they have no other choice but to go forward with
               | renewables and storage.
               | 
               | A glimpse into the future, as is Spain, as is California.
               | Some are further on their journey than others. Those at
               | the frontier will teach the rest of us how to solve for
               | the hardest parts.
               | 
               | https://www.pv-tech.org/australia-mandates-three-hour-
               | free-s...
               | 
               | https://openelectricity.org.au/analysis/40-renewable-and-
               | ris...
        
               | cbmuser wrote:
               | Compare the price and carbon density of the French
               | electricity grid with that of California to understand
               | why that rebuttal is justified.
        
               | toomuchtodo wrote:
               | France had to nationalize EDF due to the exorbitant cost
               | of their nuclear fleet, and they cannot get a reactor
               | built within reasonable capital costs. Spain plans to
               | deprecate their remaining nuclear for renewables for
               | similar reasons. California will achieve a low carbon
               | generation profile for far cheaper than it cost France
               | (refer to the Lazard LCOE data product I've cited in my
               | other comment in this thread).
               | 
               |  _EDF fleet upkeep will cost over 100 billion euros by
               | 2035, court of auditors says_ -
               | https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/edf-fleet-upkeep-
               | wil... - November 17th, 2025
               | 
               |  _French utility EDF lifts cost estimate for new reactors
               | to 67 billion euros_ - Les Echos -
               | https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/french-utility-
               | edf-l... - March 4th, 2024
               | 
               |  _Explainer-Why a French plan to take full control of EDF
               | is no cure-all_ -
               | https://www.euronews.com/next/2022/07/07/edf-
               | nationalistion - July 7th, 2022
               | 
               |  _Spain's Nuclear Shutdown Set to Test Renewables Success
               | Story_ -
               | https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-11/spain-
               | s-n... | https://archive.today/4fB7K - April 11th, 2025
               | ("Spain is a postcard, a glimpse into the future where
               | you're not going to need baseload generators from 8am to
               | 5pm" with solar and wind providing all of the grid's
               | needs during that time, said Kesavarthiniy Savarimuthu, a
               | European power markets analyst with BloombergNEF. Still,
               | she said, there is a reasonable chance this goal may take
               | longer than expected and "extending the life of the
               | nuclear fleet can prove as an insurance for these
               | delays.") (My note: As of this comment, Spain has 7.12GW
               | of nuclear generation capacity per ree.es, and assuming
               | ~2GW/month deployment rate seen in Germany, could replace
               | this capacity with solar and batteries in ~17 months; per
               | Electricity Maps, only 15.45% of Spain's electrical
               | generation over the last twelve months has been sourced
               | from this nuclear:
               | https://app.electricitymaps.com/map/zone/ES/12mo/monthly)
        
               | adev_ wrote:
               | > France had to nationalize EDF due to the exorbitant
               | cost of their nuclear fleet
               | 
               | That's just wrong.
               | 
               | EDF nuclear fleet is highly profitable with around 92TWh
               | exported in 2025 and more than 5 Billions of benefits for
               | the country and the company.
               | 
               | https://www.sfen.org/rgn/le-nucleaire-en-
               | chiffres-923-twh-de...
               | 
               | The reason EDF had to be nationalized is because the
               | government used the company as a "price shield" to
               | protect consumer against energy price rise on the
               | European market in 2022 with a mechanism named TRV (Tarif
               | Regule vente). That digged up EDF dept tremendously.
               | 
               | > Spain plans to deprecate their remaining nuclear for
               | renewables for similar reasons
               | 
               | Span deprecated their nuclear government because their
               | current Socialist government is aligned with Ecologists
               | that are, like everywhere in Europe, antinuclear.
               | 
               | Additionally, the lack of spinning generator in Spain is
               | currently partially what caused the Blackout in Spain in
               | 2025 due to a lack of inertia in the system.
               | 
               | > EDF fleet upkeep will cost over 100 billion euros by
               | 2035, court of auditors says
               | 
               | This is over 25 years and will prolong-ate the lifetime
               | of the 56 reactors by 20 more years. These produce 70% of
               | the country need in electricity.
               | 
               | In comparison, the German energiewende cost 400 billions
               | for 37% of electricity of 2025 produced by solar and
               | wind. With production medium that will need to be
               | entirely renewed in 20 years.
               | 
               | > California will achieve a low carbon generation profile
               | for far cheaper than it cost France (refer to the Lazard
               | LCOE
               | 
               | That is also wrong.
               | 
               | Because LCOE calculation does not take into consideration
               | the price of the grid consolidating necessary for
               | renewable nor the necessity of backup generation in case
               | of dunkleflaute.
        
               | Kon5ole wrote:
               | >> France had to nationalize EDF due to the exorbitant
               | cost of their nuclear fleet >That's just wrong.
               | 
               | No, it's correct, the total costs of the 2022 bailout was
               | almost 10bn, and that was to get control over a company
               | that had over 50bn in debt.
               | 
               | Furthermore it was discovered that the plants had
               | neglected maintenance that had to be undertaken
               | rightaway, that had nothing to do with the TRV.
               | 
               | Of course, the TRV didn't help, it caused a loss of 18bn
               | in 2022 on top of everything else, but things were bad
               | already.
               | 
               | So even if the mentioned 5 bn export now was pure profit
               | - which is isn't - it would take 15-20 years to cover the
               | bailout that has already taken place. The 100 billion of
               | investments until 2035 is in addition to that.
               | 
               | And they will have to sell their power on markets that
               | will increasingly often have free electricity from solar
               | and wind. How do you pay 1000 educated plant operators
               | when electricity prices are negative?
               | 
               | Unfortunately nuclear power isn't the kind of thing you
               | can try and then walk away from when it turns out to be a
               | bad idea. Which is likely the main reason it's still
               | around.
        
               | adev_ wrote:
               | > No, it's correct, the total costs of the 2022 bailout
               | was almost 10bn, and that was to get control over a
               | company that had over 50bn in debt.
               | 
               | Bailout of 2022 alone was around 22bnEUR, which was added
               | on top of it the historical debt.
               | 
               | Revenue of EDF in 2025 is over 100bnEUR to put things
               | into perspective.
               | 
               | > Furthermore it was discovered that the plants had
               | neglected maintenance that had to be undertaken
               | rightaway, that had nothing to do with the TRV.
               | 
               | That is also wrong. The immediate maintenance in 2022 was
               | related to "corrosion sous contrainte" which has nothing
               | to do with carelessness. It was mainly the French nuclear
               | regulator (ASN) over-reacting to some non-critical cracks
               | find in some pipes. They have themselves said afterward
               | that the immediate actions were not necessary. The
               | actions were overreactive (from EDF side) and the
               | calendar was very unfortunate.
               | 
               | > So even if the mentioned 5 bn export now was pure
               | profit - which is isn't -
               | 
               | Indeed. Profits in 2025 were currently over 8bnEUR, so
               | well over 5bnEUR.
               | 
               | 5bnEUR just concern the profit made by the exports.
               | 
               | This is not hard to understand: Making a profit by
               | selling valuable nuclear energy during evening peak
               | consumption while buying cheap intermittent solar during
               | low consumption time is an easy game.
               | 
               | People generally do not understand that Nuclear is a
               | CAPEX game, not an OPEX one.
               | 
               | > And they will have to sell their power on markets that
               | will increasingly often have free electricity from solar
               | and wind. How do you pay 1000 educated plant operators
               | when electricity prices are negative?
               | 
               | By selling nuclear electricity at 180EUR/MWh every night
               | when the sun do not shine.
               | 
               | (This is the average price, every evening peak this
               | month)
               | 
               | Meaning-while, the profitability of solar operators will
               | sink to the ground due to the overcapacity causing
               | negative price during the day as soon as the sun shine.
               | Many of them will die if not state subsidized with public
               | money.
               | 
               | > nuclear power isn't the kind of thing you can try and
               | then walk away from when it turns out to be a bad idea
               | 
               | It is currently the best low-carbon energy around. And
               | will continue to be for the next 2 decades.
               | 
               | The current Co2/kwh emission of France is 27g/kwh.
               | 
               | The comparison with country like Germany (397g/kwh) or
               | state like California (190g/kwh) that spend >100Bn$ on
               | renewable speak for itself.
               | 
               | I can safely bet that in 15y from now, the French grid
               | will still be greener than the German one.
        
               | natmaka wrote:
               | > making a profit by selling valuable nuclear energy
               | 
               | EDF adjusted economic debt at the beginning of 2026:
               | EUR81.7 billion After decades of massive help
               | (nationalisations building it, monopoly, gift-loans, debt
               | cancellation...
               | 
               | > the profitability of solar operators will sink to the
               | ground due to the overcapacity causing negative price
               | 
               | Wait for storage (V2G...) and hydrogen to kick in.
               | 
               | > France > Germany
               | 
               | France's transition to nuclear power began in 1963 and is
               | now complete.
               | 
               | In other countries (Germany...), transitions to
               | renewables began with the advent of their industrial
               | versions, around 2005. The current context makes these
               | transitions more challenging, and they are still
               | underway.
               | 
               | Therefore, any comparison of their results, for example,
               | greenhouse gas emissions, must be based not on snapshots
               | (which currently favor France since its transition is
               | complete), but on their progress: speed, costs, impacts,
               | etc.
               | 
               | https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/carbon-intensity-
               | electric...
               | 
               | https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/electricity-
               | generation-fr...
               | 
               | https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/consumption-based-
               | carbon-...
               | 
               | https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/co-emissions-per-
               | capita?t...
        
               | natmaka wrote:
               | > EDF nuclear fleet is highly profitable with around
               | 92TWh exported in 2025
               | 
               | Nope. Electricity exports are officially exported at a
               | loss, since the average price per MWh exported is
               | generally slightly lower than the average French spot
               | price ( https://assets.rte-
               | france.com/prod/public/2025-04/2025-04-09... , page 87).
               | According to the sound approach established by Mr.
               | Boiteux, this price must compensate for production costs
               | as well as investments.
               | 
               | The average market price is decreasing because the
               | renewable energy sector is expanding across the
               | continent, thus supplying more and more electricity at a
               | production cost that is increasingly lower than that of
               | nuclear power.
               | 
               | According to RTE, France will export 92.3 TWh in 2025
               | (page 75), paid EUR5.4 billion (page 15), meaning that
               | the average price per MWh will be EUR58.7. However, this
               | renewable energy sector (considered fully amortized) will
               | produce electricity at a cost of EUR60.3 according to the
               | CRE (which considers it fully amortized and therefore
               | neglects the bulk of the investment), and at around EUR78
               | according to EDF ( https://www.edf.fr/sites/groupe/files/
               | epresspack/6300/CP_Con... ), which wants to build EPR2
               | reactors and therefore needs to have the necessary funds.
               | 
               | In short, France is exporting at EUR58.70 a year when it
               | needs to sell for at least EUR78 to finance its future
               | reactors, thus "using up" its current fleet without
               | setting aside enough money to replace it.
               | 
               | Worse still: if the costs of the EPR2 reactors exceed
               | forecasts, as all EPR construction projects (Finland,
               | France, China, and the UK) have done, the deficit will
               | increase even further.
               | 
               | Fixed costs (investments, maintenance, depreciation of
               | the EPR alone, etc.) are by definition paid whether the
               | fleet produces or not. Therefore, exporting at a price
               | higher than the variable costs (paid only if the plant
               | produces) is a lesser evil because the difference covers
               | a portion of the fixed costs: it is less expensive to
               | export at a slight loss than not to produce and lose more
               | (in technical terms: the gross margin helps cover fixed
               | costs).
               | 
               | However, claiming that nuclear power is profitable simply
               | because of electricity exports is misleading, and the
               | ideal solution would be to produce electricity at the
               | lowest possible cost, therefore using renewable energy
               | sources.
               | 
               | Furthermore, a portion of France's electricity is
               | generated from renewables, so attributing exports solely
               | to nuclear power is misleading.
        
               | natmaka wrote:
               | > the government used the company as a "price shield" to
               | protect consumer against energy price rise on the
               | European market in 2022
               | 
               | EDF's accounts show that the government compensated for
               | the effect on its revenues of this price shield ( https:/
               | /www.ccomptes.fr/sites/default/files/2024-03/20240315...
               | , page 184).
        
               | natmaka wrote:
               | > the German energiewende cost
               | 
               | The cost of the energy transition in Germany is sometimes
               | cited as EUR300 billion, EUR500 billion, or even EUR1.5
               | trillion.
               | 
               | These figures are worthless because no reputable source
               | publishes a specific figure along with the scope of the
               | project (some aspects of the investments needed for the
               | electricity grid are independent of the energy source)
               | and at least a timeframe.
               | 
               | These figures are actually projections published by
               | various sources, covering distant deadlines (2050, etc.)
               | and the entire electricity system, including non-
               | renewable energy sources (whose additional costs are
               | often overestimated).
        
               | pepperoni_pizza wrote:
               | > This is a common rebuttal, but not grounded in reality.
               | Even assuming ~20% capacity factor for "apples to apples"
               | comparison to legacy thermal and nuclear, solar and
               | batteries are the cheapest form of power to install.
               | 
               | I looked it up because I was curious, according to
               | Wikipedia average PV capacity factor is 25 % in USA, 10 %
               | in the UK or Germany.
               | 
               | Nuclear has 88 % capacity factor worldwide. Meaning to
               | replace 1 GW of nuclear installed capacity you need 8.8
               | GW of PV installed capacity in Germany or 3.5 GW of PV
               | installed capacity in US.
               | 
               | Which might still be economically worth it, I don't know.
               | But it is a number that surprised it.
        
               | toomuchtodo wrote:
               | It takes ~10 years to build a new nuclear generator from
               | breaking ground to first kw to the grid, and tens of
               | billions of dollars or euros. Germany deploys ~2GW/month
               | of solar, the US ~4-5GW/month. Total global nuclear
               | generation capacity is ~380GW as of this comment. At
               | current global solar PV deployment rates, even assuming
               | capacity factor delta between solar and nuclear, you
               | could replace total global nuclear generation with ~18
               | months of solar PV deployment.
        
               | pepperoni_pizza wrote:
               | Yes, the biggest advantage of solar and wind is that they
               | can be built as many small projects, instead of few
               | gigaprojects we seem to have lost the ability to execute
               | in the West.
               | 
               | I wish I didn't live in coal and NIMBY land.
        
               | lostlogin wrote:
               | > I wish I didn't live in coal and NIMBY land
               | 
               | Money will eventually win the war. Depressing way to get
               | there but this crisis will accelerate the change.
        
               | hparadiz wrote:
               | Why is this even a crises? Sure there's fossil fuel price
               | shocks but watching mission control for Artemis and
               | comparing it to the Apollo missions the difference in
               | tech can't be understated. We've made massive progress in
               | only 50 years as a civilization collectively. We used to
               | basically waste energy powering giant displays. Now we
               | use a fraction of the energy on far better ones. 50 years
               | from now we're likely to have so much solar and batteries
               | deployed that it might actually hit "almost free" levels.
        
               | mustyoshi wrote:
               | Nuclear fills a base load role better than solar+battery
               | though, imo.
               | 
               | A healthy power network will have a variety of
               | generations sources available.
        
               | fundatus wrote:
               | Modern grids favour flexibility over fixed baseload
               | generation (like nuclear) though. When you turn off a
               | nuclear power plant its operating costs basically stay
               | the same, which is horrible when you could cover your
               | whole consumption with basically free solar/wind.
        
               | dalyons wrote:
               | actually nuclear is terrible in a grid increasingly full
               | of nearly-free variable sources (solar&wind). The nukes
               | need to stay at 100% all the time selling their power at
               | a high fixed price to have any remote chance of being
               | economical. Cheap variables push nuke's expensive power
               | off the grid during the day, and increasingly into the
               | evenings with batteries. This is deadly to the economics
               | of nuclear.
        
               | toomuchtodo wrote:
               | This is what France faces today.
               | 
               |  _France 's EDF Warns Solar, Wind Surge Straining Nuclear
               | Fleet Costs_ -
               | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47037839 - February
               | 2026
        
             | derefr wrote:
             | Refer to: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_b
             | y_electrici...
             | 
             | The largest electricity consumers all have good places to
             | put solar farms.
        
             | tzs wrote:
             | > Installed capacity is a misleading number. If you
             | assessed the trucking industry by simply sum-ing the rated
             | capacity of all the hardware you'd be rightfully laughed
             | and and called a liar on the basis of all the times the
             | trucks are empty and all the trucks that run out of volume
             | before weight. Renewables is a similar situation.
             | 
             | OK, but what if someone looked at the rated capacity of all
             | trucks and noted that in the last 5 years it went up by
             | 24%, 22%, 28%, 54%, and 45%? That would strongly suggest
             | that the amount trucks actually being used is growing
             | rapidly because people aren't going to be buying new trucks
             | unless they have to.
        
               | ithkuil wrote:
               | Yes, unless people had some incentives to show an
               | increase in the trucking capacity in order to meet some
               | metrics and get more funding etc. (not saying that's
               | what's happening, but just as a counterpoint to your
               | logic)
        
         | jeffbee wrote:
         | The Trump administration is secretly the head of a renewable
         | energy accelerationist front, or at least that's the effect in
         | practice.
        
           | pepperoni_pizza wrote:
           | > The Trump administration is secretly the head of a
           | renewable energy accelerationist front
           | 
           | "accelerationist" yes, not sure about the other parts.
        
           | HerbManic wrote:
           | Trump could become an accidental environmental ally in the
           | same way the 2008 credit crisis and Covid did. Just blunders
           | in and in the wreckage might be something ok.
        
         | recursive wrote:
         | Well see, we're sick of winning.
        
         | matthewdgreen wrote:
         | It's like watching people invest in Blockbuster Video stores
         | after you've used Netflix.
        
           | RRWagner wrote:
           | At the time, I stupidly thought Blockbuster would see what
           | was coming and use their at the time larger size to pivot and
           | do what Netflix had demonstrated would work. Kind of like
           | when the Yellow Pages bought early Google. Oh wait...
        
             | zadikian wrote:
             | Blockbuster did start offering mail in DVD rental
             | subscriptions just like Netflix, in fact it was better
             | because you could return it to a nearby store if you didn't
             | want to wait for mail. But it was too late. (This was even
             | before streaming.)
        
         | 0xbadcafebee wrote:
         | US is divesting from renewables because it planned to go to war
         | with the rest of the world, which it depends on for renewables
         | (rare earth materials). As a result it's forced to focus on oil
         | and coal instead because it can produce that within the
         | northwestern hemisphere. New strategic plan is likely to take
         | over greenland, drill in arctic, expand rigs in gulf of mexico,
         | spin up coal plants, and do deals with govt they install in
         | Venezuela. This is the "America First" plan - reject globalism,
         | completely control the home turf like Russia, build up
         | warfighting apparatus, use that to go take over more countries
         | and extract wealth there. (Guess who came up with the plan? US
         | isn't a threat to Russia if US stays on its side of the ocean)
        
       | Night_Thastus wrote:
       | Makes sense - solar especially. It's just more financially smart
       | to buy something that will generate electricity for 20-30 years
       | with little to no maintenance than a plant that requires constant
       | fuel, and is fairly complex mechanically with fluids and heat
       | exchangers and turbines and so on. Panel efficiency keeps going
       | up and prices keep going down, it's a snowball at this point.
        
         | joe_mamba wrote:
         | _> it's a snowball at this point._
         | 
         | That's why Putin attacked in 2022, and didn't wait any longer
         | to build a stronger military. He knew he was on the clock as
         | Europe slowly switched to renewables his fossil fuel leverage
         | got weaker.
         | 
         | Unrelated, but doomer version of me expects that China will
         | wait for the US to exhaust it's cruise missile supply bombing
         | Iran, then move over Taiwan. Hope I'm wrong about this.
        
           | kibwen wrote:
           | China would have no need to wait for the US to exhaust its
           | cruise missile supply before attacking Taiwan. The amount of
           | firepower that China can muster from the mainland is enough
           | to completely overwhelm any amount of conventional firepower
           | that the US can bring to bear in the region. All US ships and
           | airbases closer than (and including) Guam are toast in a
           | serious war.
        
             | JumpCrisscross wrote:
             | > _The amount of firepower that China can muster from the
             | mainland is enough to completely overwhelm any amount of
             | conventional firepower that the US can bring_
             | 
             | A lesson we learn again in 2026: one can't seize and hold
             | territory with air power alone.
             | 
             | China can almost certainly deny U.S. warships access to the
             | Taiwan Strait. They can probably deny U.S. access to the
             | South China Sea. But the U.S. (and Taiwan and Japan) can do
             | the same back, similarly from a distance, and that's the
             | equilibrium currently keeping the peace.
        
         | Gander5739 wrote:
         | Relevant xkcd: https://xkcd.com/3226/
        
       | lifty wrote:
       | Solar capacity is always misleading because it's intermittent.
       | Capacity of a gas power plant can't be compared to capacity of a
       | solar power plant, even though it sounds like you are comparing
       | the same thing. Would love to know total kWh generated.
        
         | adrithmetiqa wrote:
         | Yep. The key difference is that a gas power plant can be cut
         | off completely at any time. For example if a trigger happy
         | leader decided to cause military mayhem in an unpredictable
         | region supplying a large proportion of the world's gas. The
         | sun, however, keeps on shining.
        
           | lifty wrote:
           | I didn't mean to compare them, implying that gas or anything
           | else is better. I'm a big fan of renewables, especially
           | solar, but just wanted to bring this aspect up. It's
           | confusing to me because I get excited when I see these
           | numbers only to later deflate when I figure out the total
           | generated kWh quantity. It would be great if there would be a
           | "synthetic" calculation which takes into account the
           | estimated generation and smoothing out using batteries, which
           | would also take into account the extra cost of batteries.
           | That would be a more apples to apples comparison both in
           | terms of net generation and cost.
        
         | _aavaa_ wrote:
         | I understand why people are downvoting you, but we still have a
         | bit to go before renewables make up 50% of yearly electricity
         | generation.
         | 
         | Not as far as you'd think though. According to [0] in 2024 it
         | was 6.9% solar, 8.1% wind, and 14.3% hydro, I.e. 29%
         | renewables. Given the trajectory I wouldn't be surprised if
         | that total was ~33% in 2025.
         | 
         | [0]: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/electricity-prod-
         | source-s...
        
           | rendang wrote:
           | By your definition/chart, we were 0% solar, 0% wind, and 20%
           | hydro in 1985 for 20% total renewables. So, 20% -> 29% in 4
           | decades
        
             | myrmidon wrote:
             | Yes, but thats a bad extrapolation because per-capita
             | electricity consumption was still rising then but is mostly
             | flat/decreasing in western countries since 2000 or so, and
             | the significant rise in reneably fraction mostly started
             | _after_ 2000.
             | 
             | The hydro fraction is also a really bad indicator in
             | general, because it basically just reflects geography of a
             | country and not really its effort to reduce CO2 emissions.
        
               | lostlogin wrote:
               | > The hydro fraction is also a really bad indicator in
               | general, because it basically just reflects geography of
               | a country and not really its effort to reduce CO2
               | emissions.
               | 
               | As a 'clean green New Zealander', your comment is
               | perfect.
               | 
               | We trash our country in such appalling ways. The fact
               | they there aren't many of us and that the easy way of
               | getting power is hydro is coincidence, not a national
               | conscience.
        
           | tootie wrote:
           | IEA had been predicting 2030 as peak fossil fuel usage up
           | until recently. They revised it back upon Trump's election
           | and shifting policy, but it's possible the Iran War has moved
           | it forward again. Either way, it's within reach.
           | 
           | That being said, peak fossil fuels is the future date at
           | which we are burning more than ever followed by the slow
           | decrease. Meaning we are still accelerating CO2 emissions and
           | even if we emit less, every emission is still cumulative so
           | the march towards actually fixing the climate will only start
           | at peak fossil fuels. We still need to remove all that GHG.
        
           | cesarvarela wrote:
           | Sadly, my country (Uruguay) is not on that map. Right now,
           | ~99% of the energy we get comes from renewables.
        
         | akamaka wrote:
         | What's the point of saying one stat is better than another,
         | when all of them are meaningful in a different way? When
         | renewables reach big numbers of TWh, someone will say "total
         | generation is misleading if doesn't line up with demand; what
         | matters is capacity for power when we actually need it".
        
           | richwater wrote:
           | > what matters is capacity for power when we actually need it
           | 
           | uh,...yea?
        
             | ZeroGravitas wrote:
             | And due to weird nuclear fetishism, people seem unaware
             | that solar lines up really well with when people need
             | power.
             | 
             | Both on daily cycles and seasonally for anywhere that uses
             | airconditioning. It's a good fit for 2/3rds of the global
             | population.
             | 
             | Some people live nearer the poles and wind lines up better
             | with their heating needs. And of course you can combine
             | them because they anti-correlate.
        
       | cbmuser wrote:
       | Capacity doesn't matter, generation does.
        
         | boringg wrote:
         | True but having capacity allows for generation - doesn't work
         | the other way around.
         | 
         | AKA the forward march of progress.
        
           | butvacuum wrote:
           | We can also time shift many of the things we do. Does your
           | fridge need to run between 3-5pm in the heat of summer? or
           | can it make sure its a little cooler to avoid running then?
           | (trivial example, probably not a good one)
        
             | Rebelgecko wrote:
             | Batteries are also getting cheaper and cheaper
        
               | zekica wrote:
               | And they are the only real solution. Demand fitting
               | production is never going to work unless we give up all
               | the autonomy.
        
               | AnthonyMouse wrote:
               | This is why a major part of the solution is electric
               | vehicles. Why put batteries in a warehouse and then run
               | vehicles on petroleum when you can put batteries in a
               | vehicle, install twice as many renewables because you now
               | have more demand for electricity, and then charge the
               | vehicles when generation is a large percentage of rated
               | capacity and still have enough to run the rest of the
               | grid when it's a smaller percentage?
        
             | jonatron wrote:
             | Demand response for things like hotel air conditioning is a
             | thing: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-
             | environment-23343211
        
             | aydyn wrote:
             | I'm sure there are better examples, but your fridge idea
             | doesn't work. Fridges already operate on the edge of
             | freezing, so if you make it a little cooler you will ruin
             | all your food. Also 3-5pm is peak hangry time.
        
               | Filligree wrote:
               | A modern fridge also uses approximately five watts, on
               | average. There are far better targets.
        
           | rembal wrote:
           | I'm too lazy to double check the numbers, but as far as I
           | remember, Germany in order to increase it's average
           | generation by 10% had to expand capacity by 70% in solar plus
           | wind. With stats like this, there's a thin line between
           | progress and waste. And all this while we have nuclear. (How
           | the world really works, Vaclav smil if anybody is less lazy
           | than me)
        
             | ceejayoz wrote:
             | > With stats like this, there's a thin line between
             | progress and waste.
             | 
             | Humanity does far more wasteful things than build some
             | extra solar panels.
        
             | lnsru wrote:
             | I would say as electrician in Bavaria: there are enough
             | empty roofs for solar. Especially in poorer neighborhoods.
             | I saw similar numbers and they are scary: to reliably
             | replace conventional power plant one needs 20x the power of
             | wind and solar. And this hardware must be imported from
             | China, there is no large scale production of solar
             | equipment in Europe.
        
           | mhh__ wrote:
           | You have to massively overprovision some renewables
        
             | Analemma_ wrote:
             | So massively overprovision them. It's _still_ cheaper than
             | fossil fuels, especially if you price in all the
             | externalities. Seems like all these hungry datacenters
             | we're building can soak up any excess capacity anyway.
        
               | mhh__ wrote:
               | What does cheap mean? You aren't paying for the same
               | thing - a ccgt plant is super fast and works independent
               | of the weather.
               | 
               | I'm in favour of having it but the reason why you need to
               | over provision is because of the intermittency. This can
               | also push out proper base load (e.g. nuclear) although
               | it's not simple.
               | 
               | You have to think about the portfolio.
               | 
               | In Britain at least there is also a bit of a sleight of
               | hand where the marginal costs are reported but not the
               | CFD strike prices used to incentivise the buildout.
        
             | svara wrote:
             | This is correct in the sense that, if you were to build a
             | zero emissions energy system from scratch with today's
             | technology, your conclusion would be that you'd eventually
             | have to do this.
             | 
             | But in much of the world, setting up PV is economically
             | sound simply because it _displaces_ a certain amount of kWh
             | generated over the course of a year from other sources that
             | are more polluting and more expensive.
             | 
             | In this regime, the dynamics of production over time don't
             | matter yet.
             | 
             | At some point, when renewable generation has very high
             | penetration, you'll reach a point where building more is
             | uneconomical, and to then displace the remaining other
             | power sources you'll need to overpay (ignoring
             | externalities).
             | 
             | However, that's assuming no technological change on the way
             | there, which is a whole separate topic.
        
           | AnthonyMouse wrote:
           | > True but having capacity allows for generation - doesn't
           | work the other way around.
           | 
           | The issue is that comparing "capacity" as a percentage is
           | misleading. A baseload generation source can have average
           | generation above 90% of its rated capacity, solar at
           | something like 25%, wind something like 25-40%. Which means
           | that saying "nearly 50%" of capacity can imply something
           | closer to 15% of generation, and potentially even less if the
           | amount of local capacity is _high_ , because then you get
           | periods when renewable generation exceeds _demand_ and the
           | additional generation has nowhere to go, which effectively
           | reduces the capacity factor even more.
           | 
           | And on the other side, natural gas peaker plants can have a
           | capacity factor even lower than solar and wind because their
           | explicit purpose is to only be used when demand exceeds
           | supply from other sources, so that "nearly 50%" in a grid
           | which is entirely renewables and peaker plants could actually
           | imply _more than 50%_ of total generation. This is much less
           | common in existing grids but it makes looking at the
           | nameplate capacity even more worthless because you can 't
           | just multiply it by a fixed factor to get the real number.
           | 
           | Whereas if they would just publish the percentage of actual
           | generation, that's what people actually want to know. But
           | then you'd have to say "13%" or "24%" or whatever the real
           | number is, instead of "nearly 50%".
        
             | boringg wrote:
             | The point is that its a proxy for more renewables being
             | deployed on the grid. Thats the take away. It is a piece of
             | good news. From one fellow energy nerd to likely another
             | one - don't get hung up on the details. There is still a
             | lot of work left to do.
        
             | ninkendo wrote:
             | > solar at something like 25%
             | 
             | The graph at https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-
             | energy-consumpti... seems to indicate the real world
             | outcome is something more like 12.9%. That is, pick a dot
             | on the graph and look at the capacity (watts) versus how
             | much was generated in 2024 (watt-hours), and the number
             | ends up vaguely looking like 1000 watt-hours generated for
             | every watt of capacity. Given that there's 8760 hours in a
             | year, that's vaguely in the 12% range.
             | 
             | The number for "World" is 2,110,000 GWh consumed for 1,866
             | GW of capacity, which means 2110000/(1866x8760) = 12.9% of
             | "capacity". Running the numbers for every country (there's
             | a csv!) shows expected cloudy/northerly countries down near
             | 8-9% (UK, germany, norway) and the sunnier ones near 20%...
             | The USA is 19.8% which tracks given how popular solar is in
             | the sunnier regions in particular.
             | 
             | Nobody in their right mind should be surprised by this,
             | since the sun doesn't always shine, it gets dark at night,
             | etc... it's unrealistic to assume this number will ever
             | meaningfully change for solar. It's just the baseline
             | expectation.
             | 
             | So yeah, "capacity" is misleading indeed. It means that for
             | solar, "50% of global capacity" would mean something more
             | like "6% of energy consumed".
             | 
             | But it's still super exciting to see the clear exponential
             | growth here. (Speaking as someone who installed a 14KW
             | array on his roof last year, solar makes me super excited.)
        
           | Manuel_D wrote:
           | A lot of renewables have intermittent generation. If daytime
           | electricity demand is already saturated, adding more solar
           | panels increases capacity but doesn't increase generation (or
           | to be more specific, it doesn't increase generation that
           | actually fulfills demand).
        
             | ziga wrote:
             | Unless you add battery storage, which is increasingly the
             | case:
             | 
             | https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2026/02/25/solar-and-storage-
             | to-...
        
         | epistasis wrote:
         | Can't have generation without capacity...
        
       | mentalgear wrote:
       | This is far higher than I expected: a much needed, remarkably
       | good reason to be cheerful about the future after all !
        
         | cucumber3732842 wrote:
         | A lot of people who are cheering right now are going to be
         | screaming bloody murder in 10-20yr when the "below this
         | population density generation and storage makes more sense than
         | grid" threshold creeps up into the lower end of suburban
         | population densities and some industrial users can just buy the
         | fields or hills around their factories and put up panels or
         | wind turbines rather than negotiate with a bunch of entities.
         | 
         | Energy independence is a two way street. This is essentially a
         | domestic internal soft power lever that is going to go away or
         | be nerf'd.
        
           | JuniperMesos wrote:
           | Why is it bad if some industrial users of electricity buy
           | fields around their factories and set up their own power
           | generation there instead of hooking up to the power grid?
        
           | myrmidon wrote:
           | I honestly don't see a big problem with that.
           | 
           | First: The same argument applies to suburban population,
           | where autarky is even easier/cheaper than for industrial
           | consumers: Just slap panels on the roof and a bunch of
           | batteries into a shed, done. We won't even need much cheaper
           | panels _nor_ cells, really; it 's mainly labor, integrator-
           | margins and regulations that make this less (financially)
           | attractive than the grid _right now_ (pure cells are already
           | in the $60 /kWh range for single-digit quantities).
           | 
           | Second: If industrial consumers stop contributing towards
           | electric grid costs and the general public dislikes it, you
           | can just regulate against it, problem solved. But in practice
           | governments already try to make the energy situation as
           | appealing as possible for industry, so there is very little
           | actually leveraged power that you really give up anyway.
        
             | cucumber3732842 wrote:
             | You're absolutely right it applies to suburbia too, not
             | just rural areas and industry in rural areas.
             | 
             | > you can just regulate against it, problem solved
             | 
             | I think that is exactly what you'll lose the ability to do.
             | If Marvin Heemeyer didn't need the town's septic connection
             | we wouldn't know his name.
             | 
             | A huge fraction of regulatory enforcement exists in the
             | gray area of "the government is wrong, or their enforcement
             | of it is wrong but it's cheaper to bend over and take it
             | than to fight it through a courtroom". If farmer Johnson
             | can slap up a building kit on his property and power it
             | with stuff he bought online and doesn't need the power
             | company, Joe Schmo can do the same with an ADU. Yeah,
             | they'll both get dragged through court but $50-100k of
             | court costs to be proven right is a much smaller threat
             | when the project can be done and generating income for the
             | duration of the court case (it also renders the typical
             | tactic of dragging out such cases much less effective).
             | 
             | And at a slightly larger scale, if some business interest
             | can negotiate purely with a municipality to take over some
             | disused factory and bring it back into use and get their
             | power via bunch of panels and not get bogged down with
             | state permitting to get a transmission line and substation
             | the state loses a huge number of levers over the business
             | interest and also they lose levers to control poorer
             | municipalities (who'd happily take the business). Once
             | again, they'll get dragged through court by the state, but
             | spending 5yr and $200k just to be right isn't a dealbreaker
             | when your widget factory has been operating the whole time.
             | 
             | Yes, of course governments can do worse things if they feel
             | like it, but they run into problems of political optics and
             | will more or less instantly.
             | 
             | You already see this kind of thing in some of the highest
             | cost areas. Certain demographics in the greater NYC area
             | often do building and land development things this way. It
             | costs the same at the end, but by doing it without asking
             | you get to use it while the whole process runs.
        
           | lostlogin wrote:
           | > industrial users can just buy the fields or hills around
           | their factories and put up panels or wind turbines rather
           | than negotiate with a bunch of entities.
           | 
           | Domestic users can just do the same. Some of us already have.
           | 
           | Yes, it's not alway possible but a huge portion of domestic
           | usage can be covered with a small install. Payback 5-10
           | years.
        
           | toomuchtodo wrote:
           | The electrical utility DTE, in Michigan, required Google to
           | do this for their new datacenter ("Project Cannoli") to avoid
           | increasing consumer energy prices. They are building solar
           | and battery storage to serve the load, as it is the cheapest
           | and fastest new generation that can be built.
           | 
           | I see nothing wrong with power users committing to clean
           | energy and storage to accelerate their development plans, or
           | to allow them at all. I am unsure who is going to complain
           | about this model. Lease or buy as much land as you need to
           | deploy clean energy.
           | 
           | https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/infrastructure-and-
           | clo...
           | 
           | Regulatory filing: https://mi-
           | psc.my.site.com/s/case/500cs00001amKTrAAM/in-the-...
           | 
           | > Google's data center operations will be served by 2.7
           | gigawatts (GW) of new resources for the grid, including solar
           | power, advanced storage technologies and demand flexibility.
           | This Clean Capacity Acceleration Agreement with DTE (the same
           | structure as the Clean Transition Tariff) will bring new,
           | clean resources online, while supporting the state's
           | transition away from coal-fired power. As part of our
           | standard approach to building new data centers, Google will
           | fully cover its electricity costs and infrastructure needs,
           | helping to ensure that its growth protects local ratepayers
           | and actively bolsters the long-term resilience of the state's
           | electricity grid.
        
       | philipkglass wrote:
       | It takes time for statistical agencies to compile reports. I
       | haven't yet found reports covering the growth in renewable
       | _generation_ (actual terawatt hours) for all of 2025. But this
       | covers 3 quarters of the year:
       | 
       | https://ember-energy.org/latest-updates/solar-and-wind-growt...
       | 
       |  _In the first three quarters of 2025, solar generation rose by
       | 498 TWh (+31%) and already surpassed the total solar output in
       | all of 2024. Wind generation grew by 137 TWh (+7.6%). Together,
       | they added 635 TWh, outpacing the rise in global electricity
       | demand of 603 TWh (+2.7%)._
        
         | reitzensteinm wrote:
         | Ember is an absolute treasure. Often you'll see articles on HN
         | from places like Elektrek which are blogspam linking back to
         | Ember's original reporting.
         | 
         | Their electricity data explorer is to my knowledge the most
         | complete on the open internet.
        
       | pzo wrote:
       | worth to keep in mind electricity usage != energy usage. We are
       | far away from replacing oil, lpg.
        
         | marcosdumay wrote:
         | If you discount the inefficiencies inherent to fossil fuels,
         | all energy usage in the world is around 3 times the electricity
         | usage.
         | 
         | And we are already in the process to replace non-electricity
         | energy.
        
       | PunchyHamster wrote:
       | And all we got to show up for it are higher electricity prices
        
         | etiennebausson wrote:
         | Of course, huge investment need to be paid for somehow.
         | 
         | Still a worthwhile investment in most case.
        
       | didgetmaster wrote:
       | >At the global level, 2025 also saw a sharp rebound in non-
       | renewable additions, which nearly doubled compared to 2024,"
       | IRENA noted. China led that drive, with 100 GW of non-renewable
       | capacity added last year, most of which was coal.
       | 
       | Why is China adding so many new generation plants powered by
       | coal? On this and other forums, I see claims all the time that
       | solar is cheaper than coal. As the world's leading producer of
       | solar panels, you would think that they would utilize it even
       | more if those claims are true.
       | 
       | Is it just the need for power when the sun is not shining? Or is
       | it something else?
        
         | danny_codes wrote:
         | Inertia I imagine. Planning cycles can be 10, 20 years, perhaps
         | longer for big infrastructure projects.
        
         | matthewdgreen wrote:
         | My understanding is that China is planning to build a coal-
         | backed renewable grid. Renewables, including storage, will
         | provide the majority of the electricity generation, and then
         | coal will step in when renewables aren't available. This
         | involves building modern coal plants that can be spun up and
         | down as needed, and then paying them not to generate. This is
         | why actual emissions have plateaued and dropped, even as new
         | coal capacity comes online.
         | 
         | We are (or were) doing something similar in the US, just using
         | natural gas as the fuel rather than coal.
        
         | tdb7893 wrote:
         | There's a recent AP article talking about this some (I don't
         | know enough to know the quality of the article):
         | https://apnews.com/article/china-coal-solar-climate-carbon-e...
        
         | marcosdumay wrote:
         | - They need something to provide electricity when the sun is
         | not shining, while they install enough batteries and more than
         | enough solar to use during the day and charge those batteries.
         | 
         | - They need some backup in case the Sun is dimmed for a few
         | days, while they install enough solar to not need this anymore.
         | 
         | - They need some backup in case they grow too fast and the
         | solar installations don't keep up.
         | 
         | - They need some backup in case there's some natural
         | catastrophe, or some stupid dictator somewhere decides to start
         | a war or something and destroy some vital energy
         | infrastructure.
         | 
         | Their government has explained this a few times, but not on
         | those words. It probably helps that those are government
         | projects, and failing to deliver government projects is a very
         | rude attitude that can end people's careers. But the rationale
         | is sound too.
        
           | fred_is_fred wrote:
           | "and the solar installations don't keep up.".
           | 
           | Whats the average time it takes to build a solar plant versus
           | a coal one? I would assume solar is a lot faster to first
           | production?
        
             | pixl97 wrote:
             | Probably better to ask how long it takes to build
             | equivalent name plate capacity if both.
        
             | marcosdumay wrote:
             | That's completely irrelevant to the issue, though.
        
         | decimalenough wrote:
         | Part of China's "new" coal capacity is modern, efficient coal
         | plants with lower emissions being built to replace old,
         | inefficient, highly polluting ones.
        
         | Veedrac wrote:
         | More than anything it's a supply limit. Solar is consistently
         | scaling about as fast as any manufacturing industry scales. The
         | TAM is just big.
        
         | 0xbadcafebee wrote:
         | Mostly it's that solar doesn't work at night. That means you
         | have to use batteries, which are impractical to store more than
         | a certain amount of energy, after which you need another very
         | large and stable energy source. So a nation-state that can't go
         | dark must have a constant load source, such as nuclear, hydro,
         | or coal. There's also limitations of geography, industry,
         | production capacity, and other issues.
        
       | ww520 wrote:
       | The problem is in power transmission. Transmission fee is a big
       | part of the cost. Anything helping for at home generation should
       | be encouraged.
       | 
       | Right now plug in solar is starting to appear. It is big in
       | Germany. Utah has passed a law to cut the red tapes to allow home
       | owners to install plug in solar themselves. More states should
       | follow.
        
         | cptskippy wrote:
         | The rub is that people don't want transmission networks to go
         | away. They just don't want to pay for the maintenance.
         | 
         | In many US municipalities the cost of infrastructure is rolled
         | into the per unit fee meaning high consumers pay more. This
         | works fine until folks adopt solar and their consumption goes
         | negative.
         | 
         | The right answer is a connection fee based on the cost to
         | maintain your hookup to the grid.
        
           | chris1993 wrote:
           | [delayed]
        
       | JoeAltmaier wrote:
       | Used to be this was almost entirely explained by hydro. Not a lot
       | of new dams going in, and they take a long time.
       | 
       | The solar component is usually with caveats: the majority of
       | growth. Because growth is slow otherwise. Solar is what part of
       | renewables now? I couldn't easily see that stat in the noise.
        
       | layoric wrote:
       | Worked on the software side of increasing the rate of solar
       | penetration in electricity networks between 2016-2020 via global
       | solar radiation forecasting. The uptake of the software was slow
       | the first year but then rapid once more electricity networks were
       | struggling with knowing how much solar was in the network. Once
       | it is easier to predict, the network becomes easier to manage,
       | and more can be safely added, and make it economically
       | profitable. Sucks this was a commercial operation, but excited to
       | see all the hard work across various industries is solving
       | problems to get more renewable energy into networks.
        
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