[HN Gopher] Microsoft Set for Worst Quarter Since 2008
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Microsoft Set for Worst Quarter Since 2008
Author : dvfjsdhgfv
Score : 59 points
Date : 2026-03-28 16:13 UTC (6 hours ago)
(HTM) web link (finance.yahoo.com)
(TXT) w3m dump (finance.yahoo.com)
| rvz wrote:
| This is a leading indicator for what is to come after the IPOs of
| SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic this year.
|
| and it is not good.
| throwaway132448 wrote:
| With any luck they've missed their exit dumping window.
| x0x0 wrote:
| spacex is particular is desperately searching for a bagholder.
| Leveraging the obvious synergies between rockets (a mediocre
| business), xai (a horrid business), and social media that lost
| more than half it's already modest revenues...
| Ekaros wrote:
| SpaceX has reasonable business in it. Not a hypergrowth one,
| but one which should be solid in long term.
|
| To get that to work they just would need to discard Musk and
| most things with him. Stop trying to make starship a thing,
| dump everything attached to it. Make a long term plan to
| improve the core lift capacity with actually achievable
| improvements.
| x0x0 wrote:
| > To get that to work they just would need to discard Musk
| and most things with him
|
| I'll have a pet unicorn shitting rainbows before Musk
| leaves one of his toys _or_ we see in-orbit leading-edge
| (or anything close to it) processor production. SpaceX is a
| decent albeit capital intensive business if it 's valued at
| $100-200B. At the proposed $1.5T+ valuation for this dog...
| the bagholder search is on.
| vrganj wrote:
| If one were to think a major stock market crash was coming up,
| led by the AI bubble bursting, but reinforced by the major self-
| own that is the Iran war, how would one best prepare ones
| investments?
| toomuchtodo wrote:
| https://www.lynalden.com/march-2026-newsletter/ (control-f "The
| Investment Implications of Chaos")
|
| Not investing advice, I've reallocated away from US domestic
| equities to international equities (VXUS) as a majority of a
| portfolio. This hedges against a correction from overweight Mag
| 7 exposure and US economic growth impairment from current
| policies (imho).
|
| https://www.axios.com/2026/03/27/stocks-trump-iran-nasdaq
|
| https://totalrealreturns.com/n/VTI,VXUS?start=2025-01-20
|
| https://www.apolloacademy.com/sp-500-concentration-approachi...
| iugtmkbdfil834 wrote:
| Dunno, but yesterday was the first time ever I felt confident
| shorting nearly across the board. Nearly.
| 2OEH8eoCRo0 wrote:
| I think a crash is coming and I do nothing. I rebalance my
| stock/bond split and keep a large emergency fund as per usual.
| gedy wrote:
| You can go all cash so not risking leverage via shorts, etc.
| But a lot of folks think that's dumb. I feel better being in
| cash right now as the mental stress of big loses in middle age
| is not worth the missed gains if I'm wrong. To each their own.
| testing22321 wrote:
| You don't think the US dollar will take a dive along with US
| stocks?
| JoshuaDavid wrote:
| What specific thing(s) are you worried that USD will take a
| dive relative to?
|
| Then once you have an answer to that question, that might
| point you towards what you want to be long.
| vrganj wrote:
| How would buying Euros compare in terms of exposure?
| readthenotes1 wrote:
| The USD could take a dive against: yuan, eu, gbp, rial,
| gold, silver, platinum, WTI, SPY, etc.
|
| Only a few of them will matter on a day-to-day basis if
| you're currently in the US with assets valued in USD.
| vrganj wrote:
| Couldn't you just exchange your EUR for USD as needed?
| Use it as your reserve currency?
| 9dev wrote:
| Traders could start buying their oil using Yuan, for
| example. That's not a theoretical anymore
| suzzer99 wrote:
| I have a big chunk in FXE (like owning Euros) precisely for
| this reason.
| chistev wrote:
| If everyone (most people) think the same, shouldn't you do the
| opposite?
|
| Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are
| fearful. Etc.
| vrganj wrote:
| That might be the case if the market was completely abstract
| and removed from ground truths.
|
| My feelings about these things don't come from markets.
| Ekaros wrote:
| I don' think that logic is intended for the top... It is what
| you should do when you are closing to bottom or are
| recovering already but most of the market does not yet see
| it.
|
| Being greedy at the top will take longest time to recover.
| Catching the falling knife.
| VohuMana wrote:
| The advice I have heard is if you think there will be a
| significant drop in the market you liquidate all your holdings
| while they are still high and then rebuy when the price is low.
| Granted this is a gamble though, if you're wrong then you just
| sold all your stock and are no longer participating in the
| market plus you need to pay capital gains tax
| readthenotes1 wrote:
| Did you hear this advice from 100 broke people or one lucky
| schmuck?
| dehrmann wrote:
| Either you need the cash now and are already in short-term
| treasuries or you're it it for the long-term and you'll be
| laughing at this question when the Dow hits 100k.
| gljiva wrote:
| One should either weather out the storm or if one wants to cash
| out soon or manage their portfolio more closely they would pick
| the defensive assets they trust the most and hold until they
| stop thinking the stock market crash is coming up or stop
| trusting those assets. If they really think the crash is
| imminent, maybe investing some excess money into shorting the
| market while setting trailing stop loss would be a fun activity
| that might turn profitable
| LeFantome wrote:
| Other than buying oil futures, probably selling to cash and
| getting ready to buy when it hits the fan.
| whobre wrote:
| In stock price, no the earnings
| VirusNewbie wrote:
| Microsoft is one of the least likely large companies to benefit
| from an AI boom. They don't have the capacity to support OpenAI
| and their own foundational models, they aren't providing a
| compelling story for wrapping OpenAI, windows continues to
| suck...
|
| OpenAI signed an agreement with GCP , that should say a lot.
| chris_money202 wrote:
| Once we are able to run language models on any consumer
| hardware with good T/s Windows will become an absolute
| powerhouse just like it did in gaming with DirectX. Any
| application will be able to be AI infused and the API to do so
| will be consistent and free to the business offering it.
| keeda wrote:
| OpenAI also signed an agreement with AWS. And Anthropic has
| signed on with Microsoft as well as GCP.
|
| The underlying dynamic is that no single cloud provider has the
| capacity required to host all the demand, so the frontier AI
| labs have no choice but to diversify for their infrastructure
| needs.
| smuhakg wrote:
| Copilot is the worst AI agent on the market. Over 50% of people
| I've spoken to that say AI is overhyped, when pressed, admit they
| were only using Copilot.
|
| This would be profitable if they could ship garbage for cheap, a
| la Microsoft Teams or Internet Explorer. But Copilot is _worse_
| at integrating with Office than Claude!
|
| This is because Copilot has aggressive context pruning to meet
| its price point of $20/month. That prevents the AI from
| meaningfully using tools or being multimodal or anything else
| their competitors have.
|
| If they added a $200/month tier many of their issues would go
| away.
| joe_mamba wrote:
| Copilot was by far the worst for coding. Not that the code
| snippets it would generate were not good, but due to the insane
| number of bugs in its UI. It would just spit out blank blocks
| thinking they contained code. When I asked it to repeat the
| steps which were empty, it would generate the same empty blocks
| like "here's your code" lol
|
| How TF can you go to market with such bugs.
| batiudrami wrote:
| Their target is not coders, it is the professional world who do
| 90% of their work in Office applications, like me. A $200/m
| model absolutely does not fly when rolled out to entire
| corporations. It needs to be a $20/user/month product.
|
| But I agree, it sucks. It is the only AI we are able to use at
| work and for tasks that it should be good at (compare comment
| sheets against a deliverable register and assign to specific
| packages) and it just can't do it. It can read the spreadsheet
| and understand them just fine but outputs are garbled nonsense.
| khelavastr wrote:
| Copilot is actually significantly more reliable at technical
| tasks with SQL or C# than others, i've found. Do we have
| different use cases?
|
| Copilot seems to hit the technical level I'm asking about
| much more reliably. It keeps a more grounded general semantic
| model.
| maltalex wrote:
| "Copilot" is not one product, it's around 15 different
| products, seriously.
|
| I think that people often compare apples to oranges by
| comparing the "copilot" they have in Windows/Office/Teams etc
| to Claude Code which is ridiculous.
|
| A better product to compare Claude Code to would be "Github
| Copilot CLI", but I haven't seen the two seriously compared
| anywhere.
| pjmlp wrote:
| Which is why they now are finally listing to customers.
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