[HN Gopher] Thoughts on slowing the fuck down
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Thoughts on slowing the fuck down
        
       Author : jdkoeck
       Score  : 585 points
       Date   : 2026-03-25 14:07 UTC (8 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (mariozechner.at)
 (TXT) w3m dump (mariozechner.at)
        
       | 0xbadcafebee wrote:
       | > it sure feels like software has become a brittle mess, with 98%
       | uptime becoming the norm instead of the exception, including for
       | big services
       | 
       | As somebody who has been running systems like these for two
       | decades: the software has not changed. What's changed is that
       | before, nobody trusted anything, so a human had to manually do
       | everything. That slowed down the process, which made flaws happen
       | less frequently. But it was all still crap. Just very slow moving
       | crap, with more manual testing and visual validation. Still
       | plenty of failures, but it doesn't _feel_ like it fails a lot of
       | they 're spaced far apart on the status page. The "uptime" is
       | time-driven, not bugs-per-lines-of-code driven.
       | 
       | DevOps' purpose is to teach you that you can move quickly without
       | breaking stuff, but it requires a particular way of working, that
       | emphasizes _building trust_. You can 't just ship random stuff
       | 100x faster and assume it will work. This is what the "move fast
       | and break stuff" people learned the hard way years ago.
       | 
       | And breaking stuff isn't inherently bad - _if_ you learn from
       | your mistakes and make the system better afterward. The problem
       | is, that 's extra work that people don't want to do. If you don't
       | have an adult in the room forcing people to improve, you get the
       | disasters of the past month. An example: Google SREs give teams
       | error budgets; the SREs are acting as the adult in the room,
       | forcing the team to stop shipping and fix their quality issues.
       | 
       | One way to deal with this in DevOps/Lean/TPS is the Andon cord.
       | Famously a cord introduced at Toyota that allows any assembly
       | worker to stop the production line until a problem is identified
       | and a fix worked on (not just the immediate defect, but the root
       | cause). This is insane to most business people because nobody
       | wants to stop everything to fix one problem, they want to quickly
       | patch it up and keep working, or ignore it and fix it later. But
       | as Ford/GM found out, that just leads to a mountain of backlogged
       | problems that makes everything worse. Toyota discovered that if
       | you take the long, painful time to fix it immediately, that has
       | the opposite effect, creating more and more efficiency, better
       | quality, fewer defects, and faster shipping. The difference is
       | cultural.
       | 
       | This is real DevOps. If you want your AI work to be both high
       | quality and fast, I recommend following its suggestions. Keep in
       | mind, none of this is a technical issue; it's a business process
       | isssue.
        
         | pixl97 wrote:
         | It also seems like massive consolidation has caused issues too.
         | Everyone is on Github. Everyone is on AWS. Everyone is behind
         | cloudflare. Whenever an issue happens here it effects everyone
         | and everyone sees it.
         | 
         | In the past with smaller services those services did break all
         | the time, but the outage was limited to a much smaller area.
         | Also systems were typically less integrated with each other so
         | one service being down rarely took out everything.
        
           | 0xbadcafebee wrote:
           | The power company is massively consolidated, as is the water
           | supply, telephone service. These are monolithic, monopolistic
           | entities. But they are also very reliable (failures are
           | usually isolated by region, or a result of natural disaster).
           | 
           | What leads to more failure is when you don't engineer those
           | consolidated entities to be reliable. Tech companies have
           | none of the legal requirements or incentives to be reliable,
           | the way physical infrastructure companies do. I agree that
           | the tighter integration is an issue, but the root cause is
           | tech companies have no incentive other than profits. If
           | they're making profits, everything's fine.
        
             | pixl97 wrote:
             | I mean recommend professional software engineering licenses
             | here on HN and it goes over like a turd in a punch bowl.
             | Everyone knows where the search for more profit was going,
             | no one wanted to get off the ride though.
        
         | hackertyper69 wrote:
         | It's a systems engineering job. You need to provide context,
         | acceptable failure modes, and test at each level for
         | validation. Identify false coupling, poor interfaces, things
         | that don't match business context during agent planning phase.
         | Then communicate / translate to others so their decisions
         | improve instead of destroying the system by optimizing only for
         | their local situation.
        
         | _doctor_love wrote:
         | Super good take - the Andon cord is needed everywhere.
        
         | zephen wrote:
         | > One way to deal with this in DevOps/Lean/TPS is the Andon
         | cord.
         | 
         | Many years ago, I started working for chip companies. It was
         | like a breath of fresh air. Successful chip companies _know_
         | the costs (both direct money and opportuity) of a failed
         | tapeout, so the metaphorical equivalent of this cord was there.
         | 
         | Find a bug the morning of tapeout? It will be carefully
         | considered and triaged, and maybe delay tapeout. And, as you
         | point out, the cultural aspect is incredibly important, which
         | means that the messenger won't be shot.
        
       | gchamonlive wrote:
       | I think before even being able to entertain the thought of
       | slowing the fuck down, we need to seriously consider divorcing
       | productivity. Or at least asking a break, so you can go for a
       | walk in the park, meet some friends and reflect on how you are
       | approaching development.
       | 
       | I think this is very good take on AI adoption:
       | https://mitchellh.com/writing/my-ai-adoption-journey. I've had
       | tremendous success with roughly following the ideas there.
       | 
       | > The point is: let the agent do the boring stuff, the stuff that
       | won't teach you anything new, or try out different things you'd
       | otherwise not have time for. Then you evaluate what it came up
       | with, take the ideas that are actually reasonable and correct,
       | and finalize the implementation.
       | 
       | That's partially true. I've also had instances where I could have
       | very well done a simple change by myself, but by running it
       | through an agent first I became aware of complexities I wasn't
       | considering and I gained documentation updates for free.
       | 
       | Oh and the best part, if in three months I'm asked to compile a
       | list of things I did, I can just look at my session history,
       | cross with my development history on my repositories and paint a
       | very good picture of what I've achieved. I can even rebuild the
       | decision process with designing the solution.
       | 
       | It's always a win to run things through an agent.
        
       | ex-aws-dude wrote:
       | Eh I think its self-correcting problem
       | 
       | Companies will face the maintenance and availability consequences
       | of these tools but it may take a while for the feedback loop to
       | close
        
         | apical_dendrite wrote:
         | Unfortunately, I think the lesson from recent history seems to
         | be that outside of highly-regulated industries, customers and
         | businesses will accept terrible quality as long as it's cheap.
        
           | ex-aws-dude wrote:
           | True but there is a limit, there are still levels of quality
        
             | layer8 wrote:
             | Levels of enshittification, more often than not.
        
           | bonoboTP wrote:
           | Yes, every slack is optimized out of systems. If something
           | has an ounce more quality than would suffice to obtain the
           | same profit, it must be cut out. It's an inefficiency. A
           | quality overhang. If people buy it even if it's crap, then
           | the conclusion is that it _has to_ be crap, else money is
           | left on the table. It 's a large scale coordination issue.
           | This gives us a world where everything balances exactly near
           | the border where it just barely works, for just barely enough
           | time.
        
           | slopinthebag wrote:
           | Nah, there is a quality floor that consumers are willing to
           | accept. Once you get below that, where it's actually
           | affecting their lives in a meaningful way, it will self-
           | correct as companies will exploit the new market created for
           | quality products.
        
         | the_mitsuhiko wrote:
         | Every problem is self-correcting in that some new normal will
         | emerge. Either through acceptance or because something is
         | changed.
         | 
         | It's very hard to say right now what happens at the other side
         | of this change right now.
         | 
         | All these new growing pains are happening in many companies
         | simultaneously and they are happening at elevated speed. While
         | that change is taking place it can be quite disorienting and if
         | you want to take a forward looking view it can be quite unclear
         | of how you should behave.
        
       | badlibrarian wrote:
       | I suppose everyone on HN reaches a certain point with these kind
       | of thought pieces and I just reached mine.
       | 
       | What are you building? Does the tool help or hurt?
       | 
       | People answered this wrong in the Ruby era, they answered it
       | wrong in the PHP era, they answered it wrong in the Lotus Notes
       | and Visual BASIC era.
       | 
       | After five or six cycles it does become a bit fatiguing. Use the
       | tool sanely. Work at a pace where your understanding of what you
       | are building does not exceed the reality of the mess you and your
       | team are actually building if budgets allow.
       | 
       | This seldom happens, even in solo hobby projects once you cost
       | everything in.
       | 
       | It's not about agile or waterfall or "functional" or abstracting
       | your dependencies via Podman or Docker or VMware or whatever that
       | nix crap is. Or using an agent to catch the bugs in the agent
       | that's talking to an LLM you have next to no control over that's
       | deleting your production database while you slept, then asking it
       | to make illustrations for the postmortem blog post you ask it to
       | write that you think elevates your status in the community but
       | probably doesn't.
       | 
       | I'm not even sure building software is an engineering discipline
       | at this point. Maybe it never was.
        
         | latchkey wrote:
         | > People answered this wrong in the Ruby era, they answered it
         | wrong in the PHP era
         | 
         | Aren't you conveniently ignoring the fact that there were
         | people saw through that and didn't go down those routes?
        
           | badlibrarian wrote:
           | Change it to "Some people" if your pedanticism won't let you
           | follow the flow.
           | 
           | Or better yet point out the better paths they chose instead.
           | Were they wrestling with Java and "Joda Time"? Talking to AWS
           | via a Python library named after a dolphin? Running .NET code
           | on Linux servers under Mono that never actually worked?
           | Jamming apps into a browser via JQuery? Abstracting it up a
           | level and making 1,400 database calls via ActiveRecord to
           | render a ten item to-do list and writing blog posts about the
           | N+1 problem? Rewriting grep in Rust to keep the ruskies out
           | of our precious LLCs?
           | 
           | Asking the wrong questions, using the wrong tools, then
           | writing dumb blog posts about it is what we do. It's what
           | makes us us.
        
             | PaulHoule wrote:
             | There's this interesting issue that we've never had
             | occupational licensing for software developers despite the
             | sheer incompetence that we see all the time.
             | 
             | On one hand there's an approach to computing where it is a
             | branch of mathematics that is universal. There are some
             | creatures that live under the ice on a moon circling a gas
             | giant around another star and if they have computers they
             | are going to understand the halting problem (even if they
             | formulate it differently) and know bubble sort is O(N^2)
             | and about algorithms that sort O(N log N).
             | 
             | On the other hand we are divided by communities of practice
             | that don't like one another. For instance there is the "OO
             | sux" brigade which thinks I suck because I like Java. There
             | still are shops where everything is done in a stored
             | procedure (oddly like the fashionable architecture where
             | you build an API server just because... you have to have an
             | API) and other shops where people would think you were
             | brain damaged to go anywhere near stored procs, triggers or
             | any of that. It used to be Linux enthusiasts thought
             | anybody involved in Windows was stupid and you'd meet
             | Windows admins who were click-click-click-click-clicking
             | over and over again to get IIS somewhat working who thought
             | IIS was the only web server good enough for "the
             | enterprise"
             | 
             | Now apart for the instinctual hate for the tools there
             | really are those chronic conceptual problems for which
             | datetime is the poster child. I think every major language
             | has been through multiple datetime libraries in and out of
             | the standard lib in the last 20 years because dates and
             | times just aren't the simple things that we wish they would
             | be and the school of hard knocks keeps knocking us to
             | accept a complicated reality.
        
               | latchkey wrote:
               | > There's this interesting issue that we've never had
               | occupational licensing for software developers despite
               | the sheer incompetence that we see all the time.
               | 
               | I'm laughing over the current Delve/SOC2 situation right
               | now. Everyone pulls for 'licenses' as the first card, but
               | we all know that is equally fraught with trauma.
               | https://xkcd.com/927/
        
             | latchkey wrote:
             | > pedanticism                 Pedanticism (or pedantry) is
             | the excessive, tiresome concern for minor details, literal
             | accuracy, or formal rules, often at the expense of
             | understanding the broader context.
             | 
             | I don't think this had anything to do with minor details at
             | all. You're trying to convey a point while ignoring the
             | half of the population who didn't go down that route.
        
         | kemiller2002 wrote:
         | Maybe back in the beginning, but I don't think it's an
         | engineering discipline now. I don't think that's bad though. I
         | always thought we tagged on the word "engineer" so that we
         | could make more money. I'm ok with not being one. The engineers
         | I've known are very strict in their approach which is good
         | since I don't want my deck to fall down. Most of us are too
         | risky with our approach. We love to try new things and
         | patterns, not just used established ones over time. This is
         | fine with me, and when we apply the term "engineer" to work, I
         | get a little uneasy, because I think it implies us doing
         | something that most of us really don't want to do. That is,
         | absolutely prove our approach works and will work for years to
         | come. Just my opinion though.
        
           | QuantumNomad_ wrote:
           | I've had jobs where my title was "software engineer", but I
           | never refer to myself as such outside of work. When I tell
           | others what I do, I say I am a software developer. It may
           | seem a pointless distinction, but to me there is a
           | distinction.
           | 
           | Neither myself nor the vast majority of other "software
           | engineers" in our field are living up to what it should mean
           | to be an "engineer".
           | 
           | The people that make bridges and buildings, those are the
           | engineers. Software engineers, for the very very most part,
           | are not.
        
             | brightball wrote:
             | I was won over by this distinction from another senior some
             | years ago. I think he said...
             | 
             | "Developers build things. Engineers build them and keep
             | them running."
             | 
             | I like the linguistic point from a standpoint of
             | emphasizing a long term responsibility.
        
               | chermi wrote:
               | I was just reading "how the world became rich" and they
               | made an interesting distinction economic "development" vs
               | plain "growth". Amusingly, "development" to them means
               | exactly what you're saying "engineer" should mean. It's
               | sustainable, structural, not ephemeral. Development in
               | the abstract hints at foundational work. Building
               | something up to last. It seems like this meaning
               | degradation is common in software. It still blows my mind
               | how the "full-stack" naming stuck, for example.
               | 
               | https://www.howtheworldbecamerich.com/
               | 
               | Edit-on a related note, are there any studies on the all-
               | in long-term cost between companies that "develop" vs.
               | "engineer". I doubt there would be clean data since the
               | managers that ignored all of the warning of "tech debt"
               | would probably have the say on both compiling and
               | releasing such data.
               | 
               | Does the cost of "tech-debt" decrease as the cost of
               | "coding" decreased or is there a phase transition on the
               | quality of the code? I bet there will be an inflection
               | point if you plotted the adoption time of AI coding by
               | companies. Late adapters that timed it after the models
               | and harnesses and practices were good enough (probably
               | still some time in the near future) would have less all-
               | in cost per same codebase quality.
        
               | lesam wrote:
               | When your bridge falls down, you don't call an incident
               | and ask your engineer to fix it, you sue them.
               | 
               | In software there's a lot more emphasis on post-hoc fixes
               | rather than up front validation, in my experience.
        
               | yomismoaqui wrote:
               | I like this one from Russ Cox:
               | 
               | "Software engineering is what happens to programming when
               | you add time and other programmers."
        
             | ge96 wrote:
             | I'm similar except for me reason is no degree. So some jobs
             | eng others just developer... although my current job I'm a
             | "technology specialist" which is funny. But I'm getting
             | paid so whatever.
             | 
             | Most recently I wrote cloudformation templates to bring up
             | infra for AWS-based agents. I don't use ai-assisted coding
             | except googling which I acknowledge is an ai summary.
             | 
             | A friend of mine is in a toxic company where everyone has
             | to use AI and they're looked down upon if they don't use
             | it. Every minute of their day has to be logged doing
             | something. They're also going to lay off a bunch of people
             | soon since "AI has replaced them" this is in the context of
             | an agency.
        
           | bdangubic wrote:
           | classic ... https://www.hillelwayne.com/post/are-we-really-
           | engineers/
        
           | bobthepanda wrote:
           | It's a bit of a misclassification. In my mind we tend to be
           | more like architects where there are a fair amount of
           | innovative ideas that don't work all that well in practice.
           | Train stations with beautiful roofs that leak and slippery
           | marble floors, airports with smoke ventilation systems in the
           | floor, etc.
           | 
           | Of course, we use that term for something else in the
           | software world, but architecture really has two tiers, the
           | starchitects building super fancy stuff (equivalent to what
           | we'd call software architects) and the much more normal ones
           | working on sundry things like townhomes and strip malls.
           | 
           | That being said I don't think people want the architecture
           | pay grades in the software fields.
        
           | somethingsome wrote:
           | At the same time, if you remove 'engineer' , informatics
           | should fall under the faculty of Science, so scientists,
           | which are even more rigorous than engineers ;)
           | 
           | Maybe software tinkerer?
        
             | layer8 wrote:
             | Software craftsman seems to strike a good balance.
        
             | bonoboTP wrote:
             | > scientists, which are even more rigorous than engineers
             | ;)
             | 
             | You should see the code that scientists write...
        
               | imagetic wrote:
               | This x1000000
        
             | nradov wrote:
             | Computer Science (kind of a misnomer) should be in the
             | faculty of Mathematics. Software Development should be in
             | the faculty of Performing Arts. Informatics should be in
             | the faculty of Business Administration.
        
           | hackertyper69 wrote:
           | It's a Systems Engineering job. You provide context, define
           | interfaces to people, tests for critical failure modes
           | affecting customer, describe system behavior, and translate
           | to other people.
        
           | linkregister wrote:
           | It's an understandable mistake to make; culturally an
           | engineer is defined by the building of physical objects that
           | have extremely high reliability expectations. But "engineer"
           | originally referred to someone who used their ingenuity to
           | build or do things in a manner not routine or primarily
           | physical [1]. Basically an inventor who produced. The main
           | engineering accreditation body in the United States adds the
           | requirement of a professional education, but it is more or
           | less the same [2].
           | 
           | We're engineers.
           | 
           | 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Engineer#Definition
           | 
           | 2. https://www.abet.org/accreditation/accreditation-
           | criteria/cr...
        
         | SoftTalker wrote:
         | > I'm not even sure building software is an engineering
         | discipline at this point. Maybe it never was.
         | 
         | It isn't. Show me the licensing requirements to be a "software
         | engineer." There are none. A 12 year old can call himself a
         | software engineer and there are probably some who have managed
         | to get remote work on major projects.
        
           | anthk wrote:
           | In Europe they are. Call yourself an Engineer without a
           | degree and your company and you will be sued with a big fine,
           | because here you must be legally accountable on disasters and
           | ofc there are hard constraints .
        
             | embedding-shape wrote:
             | > In Europe they are
             | 
             | Where specifically? I've been working as a "Software
             | engineer" for multiple decades, across three countries in
             | Europe, and 2-3 countries outside of Europe, never been
             | sued or received a "big fine" for this, even have had
             | presentations for government teams and similar, not a
             | single person have reacted to me (or others) calling
             | ourselves "software engineers" this whole time.
        
               | dranudin wrote:
               | In Germany. I have a degree in mechanical engineering and
               | am thus allowed to call myself an engineer, even though I
               | write software professionally. Colleagues who have
               | studied computer science cannot, as it is not considered
               | an engineering, but a science degree. This is why most
               | people talk about "software developers" and not about
               | "software engineers" (in German) to avoid this problem.
               | That being said, most people would not actually care.
        
             | organsnyder wrote:
             | Canada also (at least some provinces). I have quite a few
             | Canadian software engineer colleagues with their iron rings
             | to prove it.
        
               | nizsle wrote:
               | An iron ring does not technically make you an engineer in
               | Canada. It just says you graduated from an engineering
               | program. A P.Eng, which is a professional engineer's
               | license is something you acquire after multiple years of
               | experience and testing.
        
             | petr25102018 wrote:
             | No, that's plain wrong (I am from Czech Republic). You can
             | even get an "engineering degree" (Ing.) by studying
             | economics.
        
           | JoshTriplett wrote:
           | > It isn't. Show me the licensing requirements
           | 
           | That's assuming the axiom that "engineer" _must_ require
           | licensing requirements. That may be true in some
           | jurisdictions, but it 's not axiomatically or definitionally
           | true.
           | 
           | Some kinds of building software may be "engineering", some
           | kinds may not be, but anyone seeking to argue that "licensing
           | requirements" should come into play will have to actually
           | _argue that_ rather than treat it as an unstated axiom.
        
             | AnimalMuppet wrote:
             | Depends on the country. In some countries, it is a _legal_
             | axiom (or at least identity).
             | 
             | For the other countries, though, arguing "some countries do
             | it that way" is as persuasive as "some countries drive on
             | the other side of the road." It's true, but so what? Why
             | should we change to do it their way?
        
               | JoshTriplett wrote:
               | > Depends on the country. In some countries, it is a
               | legal axiom (or at least identity).
               | 
               | As I said, "That may be true in some jurisdictions, but
               | it's not axiomatically or definitionally true.". The law
               | is emphatically not an _axiom_ , nor is it definitionally
               | right or wrong, or correct or incorrect; it only defines
               | what's legal or illegal.
               | 
               | When the article raised the question of whether "building
               | software is an engineering discipline", it was very
               | obviously not asking a question about _whether the term
               | 'engineering' is legally restricted in any particular
               | jurisdiction_.
        
               | SoftTalker wrote:
               | To my mind, the term "engineering discipline" implies
               | something roughly analogous to Electrical Engineering,
               | Civil Engineering, Mechanical Engineering, Chemical
               | Engineering.
               | 
               | There is no such rigorous definition for "software
               | engineer" which normally is just a self-granted title
               | meaning "I write code."
        
         | stuffn wrote:
         | Largely a problem of VCs and shareholders. After my 12th year
         | of "we'll get around to bug fixes" and "this is an emergency" I
         | realize I am absolutely not doing anything related to
         | engineering. My job means less than the moron PM who graduated
         | bottom of their class in <field>. The lack of trust in me
         | despite having almost a life in software is actually so
         | insulting it's hard to quantify.
         | 
         | Now I barely look at ticket requirements, feed it to an LLM,
         | have it do the work, spend an hour reviewing it, then ship it 3
         | days later. Plenty of fuck off time, which is time well spent
         | when I know nothing will change anyway. If I'm gonna lose my
         | career to LLMs I may as well enjoy burning shareholder capital.
         | I've optimized my life completely to maximize fuck off time.
         | 
         | At the end of the day they created the environment. It would be
         | criminal to not take advantage of their stupidity.
        
           | konfusinomicon wrote:
           | same experience here. trust deficits so rampant i question if
           | ive ever been right once in my career. dont forget the lack
           | of the word 'iterate' in the decision makers vocabulary. and
           | as soon as the word sunset is uttered you know your in for a
           | bumpy ride once again
        
         | PaulHoule wrote:
         | People built a lot of great stuff with Ruby, PHP, Notes and VB.
         | I don't know what the problem really is.
         | 
         | Personally I think that whole Karpathy thing is the slowest
         | thing in the world. I mean you can spin the wheels on a
         | dragster all you like and it is really loud and you can smell
         | the fumes but at some point you realize you're not going
         | anywhere.
         | 
         | My own frustration with the general slowness of computing (iOS
         | 26, file pickers, build systems, build systems, build systems,
         | ...) has been peaking lately and frankly the lack of
         | responsiveness is driving me up the wall. If I wasn't busy at
         | work and loaded with a few years worth of side projects I'd be
         | tearing the whole GUI stack down to the bottom and rebuilding
         | it all to respect hard real time requirements.
        
         | pydry wrote:
         | >After five or six cycles it does become a bit fatiguing. Use
         | the tool sanely.
         | 
         | That's increasingly not possible. This is the first time for me
         | in 20 years where I've had a programming tool rammed down my
         | throat.
         | 
         | There's a crisis of software developer autonomy and it's
         | actually hurting software productivity. We're making worse
         | software, slower because the C levels have bought this fairy
         | tale that you can replace 5 development resource with 1
         | development resource + some tokens.
        
           | whaleofatw2022 wrote:
           | That lucky?
           | 
           | In 18 years AI is the third or 4th tool forced upon a
           | shop/team, I will say of those it is the forst one that is
           | genuinely able to make me more productive overall, even with
           | the drawbacks.
        
         | no_shadowban_3 wrote:
         | > I'm not even sure building software is an engineering
         | discipline at this point. Maybe it never was.
         | 
         | Just another reason we should cut software jobs and replace
         | them with A(G)I.
         | 
         | If the human "engineers" were never doing anything precisely,
         | why would the robot engineers need to?
        
         | 01284a7e wrote:
         | All (not some) of the most successful devs I've known in the
         | sense of building something that found market fit and making
         | money off it were terrible engineers. They were fairly
         | productive at building features. That's it. And they were
         | productive - until they weren't. Their work ultimately led to
         | outages, lost data, and sensitive data being leaked (to what
         | extent, I don't even know).
         | 
         | The ones who got acquired - never really had to stand up to any
         | due diligence scrutiny on the technical side. Other sides of
         | the businesses did for sure, but not that side.
         | 
         | Many of you here work for "real" tech companies with the budget
         | and proper skin in the game to actually have real engineers and
         | sane practices. But many of you do not, and I am sure many have
         | seen what I have seen and can attest to this. If someone like
         | the person I mentioned above asks you to join them to help fix
         | their problems, make sure the compensation is tremendous. Slop
         | clean-up is a real profession, but beware.
        
           | michaelbarton wrote:
           | There used to be a saying along the lines of "while you're
           | designing your application to scale to 1m requests/min,
           | someone out there is making $1m ARR with php and duct tape"
           | 
           | It feels like this takes on a whole new meaning now we have
           | agents - which I think is the same point you were making
        
         | AnimalMuppet wrote:
         | Software _was_ an engineering discipline... at some places. And
         | it still is, _at some places_.
         | 
         | Other places were "hack it until we don't know of any major
         | bugs, then ship it before someone finds one". And now they're
         | "hey, AI agents - we can use that as a hack-o-matic!" But they
         | were having trouble with sustainability before, and they're
         | going to still, except much faster.
        
         | skybrian wrote:
         | People don't realize how much software engineering has
         | improved. I remember when most teams didn't use version
         | control, and if we did have it, it was crappy. Go through the
         | Joel Test [1] and think about what it was like at companies
         | where the answers to most of those questions was "no."
         | 
         | [1] https://www.joelonsoftware.com/2000/08/09/the-joel-
         | test-12-s...
        
           | Towaway69 wrote:
           | At the same time, systems have become far more complex. Back
           | when version control was crap, there weren't a thousand APIs
           | to integrate and a million software package dependencies to
           | manage.
           | 
           | Sure everything seems to have gotten better and that's why we
           | now need AIs to understand our code bases - that we created
           | with our great version control tooling.
           | 
           | Fundamentally we're still monkeys at keyboards just that now
           | there are infinitely many digital monkeys.
        
             | PaulHoule wrote:
             | Perrow's book _Normal Accidents_ postulates that, given
             | advances which could improve safety, people just decide to
             | emphasize throughput, speed, profits, etc. he turned out to
             | be wrong about aviation (got much safer over time) and
             | maritime shipping (there was a perception of a safety
             | crisis in the late 1970s with oil tankers exploding, now
             | you just hear about the odd exceptional event.)
        
               | Towaway69 wrote:
               | > Perrow argues that multiple and unexpected failures are
               | built into society's complex and tightly coupled systems,
               | and that accidents are unavoidable and cannot be designed
               | around.[1]
               | 
               | This is definitely something that is happening with
               | software systems. The question is: is having an AI that
               | is fundamentally undecipherable in its intention to
               | extend these systems a good approach? Or is an approach
               | of slowing down and fundamentally trying understand the
               | systems we have created a better approach?
               | 
               | Has software become safer? Well planes don't fall from
               | the sky but the number of zero day exploits built into
               | our devices has vastly improved. Is this an issue? Does
               | it matter that software is shipped broken? Only to be
               | fixed with the next update.
               | 
               | I think its hard to have the same measure of safety for
               | software. A bridge is safe because it doesn't fall down.
               | Is email safe when there is spam and phishing attacks?
               | Fundamentally Email is a safe technology only that it
               | allows attacks via phishing. Is that an Email safety
               | problem? Probably not just as as someone having a car
               | accident on a bridge is generally not a result of the
               | bridge.
               | 
               | I think that we don't learn from our mistakes. As
               | developers we tend to coat over the accidents of our
               | software. When was the last time a developer was sued for
               | shipping broken software? When was the last time an
               | engineer was sued for building a broken bridge? Notice
               | that there is an incentive as engineer to build better
               | and safer bridges, for developers those incentives don't
               | exist.
               | 
               | [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_Accidents
        
               | PaulHoule wrote:
               | The other day I was thinking about how stupid little
               | things in the Javascript ecosystem where you have to
               | change your configuration file "just because" are a real
               | billion-dollar mistake and speculating that I could sue
               | some of the developers in small claims court.
               | 
               | Right away I scoffed when I heard people had 20 agents
               | running in parallel because I've been at my share of
               | startups with 20 person teams that tend to break down
               | somewhere between:
               | 
               | - 20 people that get about as much done as an optimal 5
               | person team with a lot more burnout and backlash
               | 
               | - There is a sprint every two weeks but the product is
               | never done
               | 
               | and people who are running those teams _don 't know which
               | one they are!_
               | 
               | I'm sure there are better ones out there but even one or
               | two SD north of the mean you find that people are in over
               | their heads. All the ceremony of agile hypnotizes people
               | into thinking they are making progress (we closed
               | tickets!) and have a plan (Sprint board!) and know what
               | they are doing (user stories!)
               | 
               | Put on your fieldworker hat and interview the manager
               | about how the team works [1] and the state of the code
               | base and compare that to the ground truth of the code and
               | you tend to find the manager's mental is somewhere
               | between "just plain wrong" and "not even wrong". Teams
               | like that get things done because there are a few
               | members, maybe even dyads and triads, who know what time
               | it is and quietly make sure the things that are
               | important-but-ignored-by-management are taken care of.
               | 
               | Take away those moral subjects and eliminate the
               | filtering mechanisms that make that 20-person manager
               | _better than average_ and I can 't help but think 'gas
               | town' is a joke that isn't even funny. Seems folks have
               | forgotten that Yegge used to blog that he owed all his
               | success in software development to chronic cannabis use,
               | like if wasn't for all that weed there wouldn't be any
               | Google today.
               | 
               | [1] I'll take even odds he doesn't know how long the
               | build takes!
        
               | throwanem wrote:
               | > Seems folks have forgotten that Yegge used to blog that
               | he owed all his success in software development to
               | chronic cannabis use, like if wasn't for all that weed
               | there wouldn't be any Google today.
               | 
               | I remember a lot of Steve Yegge's impressive claims from
               | back when he and Zed Shaw were what I would call "fringe
               | contemporaries" in the early 2010s - like all the time he
               | spent gassing on about his unmaintainable, barely usable
               | nightmare of a Javascript mode for Emacs. (I did like the
               | MozRepl integration, for what that's worth.)
               | 
               | I _don 't_ particularly recall him talking about smoking
               | pot, and I think I would have, if he'd been as memorably
               | effusive there as about js2-mode. But it's been a lot of
               | years and I couldn't begin to remember where to look for
               | an archive of his old blog. Would you happen to have a
               | link?
        
               | nhhvhy wrote:
               | _> planes don't fall from the sky_
               | 
               | Boeing would like a word (; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki
               | /Maneuvering_Characteristics_Au...
        
             | bigfishrunning wrote:
             | > that's why we now need AIs to understand our code bases
             | 
             | I don't need an AI to understand my code base, and neither
             | do you. You're smarter then you give yourself credit for.
        
             | jimbokun wrote:
             | The better processes and tools made larger project
             | possible.
        
           | nradov wrote:
           | Version control is useful but it has nothing to do with
           | software _engineering_ per se. Most software development is
           | craft work which doesn 't meet the definition of engineering
           | (and that's usually fine). Conversely, it's possible to do
           | real software engineering without having a modern version
           | control system.
        
             | aduitsis wrote:
             | And maybe it's dangerous for one to think they're doing
             | engineering when in reality they're doing craft work.
        
               | kakacik wrote:
               | ... but it helps tremendously to have a solid computer
               | engineering background since you are (finding and)
               | transforming hard facts of reality into working code. I'd
               | say its a mix of both, you can't just vibecode (or hack
               | together before current times) a properly beautiful
               | design (whatever that means in given instance).
        
           | zer00eyz wrote:
           | > People don't realize how much software engineering has
           | improved.
           | 
           | It has, but we have gotten there by stacking turtles, by
           | building so many layers of abstraction that things no longer
           | make sense.
           | 
           | Think about this hardware -> hypervisor -> vm -> container ->
           | python/node/ruby run time all to compile it back down to
           | Bytecode to run on a cpu.
           | 
           | Some layers exist because of the push/pull between systems
           | being single user (PC) and multi user (mainframe). We
           | exacerbated the problem when "installable software" became a
           | "hard problem" and wanted to mix in "isolation".
           | 
           | And most of that software is written on another pile of
           | abstractions. Most codebases have disgustingly large
           | dependency trees. People keep talking about how "no one is
           | reviewing all this ai generated code"... Well the majority of
           | devs sure as shit arent reviewing that dependency tree...
           | Just yesterday there was yet another "supply chain attack".
           | 
           | How do you protect yourself from such a thing... stack on
           | more software. You cant really use "sub repositories/modules"
           | in git. It was never built that way because Linus didnt need
           | that. The rest of us really do... so we add something like
           | artifactory to protect us from the massive pile of stuff that
           | you're dependent on but NOT looking at. It's all just more
           | turtles on more piles.
           | 
           | Lots of corporate devs I know are really bad at reviewing
           | code (open source much less so). The PR code review process
           | in many orgs is to either find the person who rubber-stamps
           | and avoid the people who only bike shed. I suspect it's
           | because we have spent the last 20 years on the leet code
           | interview where memorizing algorithms and answering brain
           | teasers was the filter. Not reading, reviewing, debugging and
           | stepping through code... Our entire industry is "what is the
           | new thing", "next framework" pilled because of this.
           | 
           | You are right that it got better, but we got there by doing
           | all the wrong things, and were going to have to rip a lot of
           | things apart and "do better".
        
         | dec0dedab0de wrote:
         | _I 'm not even sure building software is an engineering
         | discipline at this point. Maybe it never was._
         | 
         | It's a craft.
        
           | tayo42 wrote:
           | Software reminds me more of construction or home contracting
           | work then engineering.
           | 
           | We do the actual building of things
        
         | dstroot wrote:
         | > I'm not even sure building software is an engineering
         | discipline at this point. Maybe it never was.
         | 
         | If I engineer a bridge I know the load the bridge is designed
         | to carry. Then I add a factor of safety. When I build a website
         | can anyone on the product side actually predict traffic?
         | 
         | When building a bridge I can consult a book of materials and
         | understand how much a material deforms under load, what is
         | breaking point is, it's expected lifespan, etc. Does this exist
         | for servers, web frameworks, network load balancers, etc.?
         | 
         | I actually believe that software "could" be an engineering
         | discipline but we have a long way to go
        
           | beachy wrote:
           | Software and bridges are entirely different.
           | 
           | If I need a bridge, and there's a perfectly beautiful bridge
           | one town over that spans the same distance - that's useless
           | to me. Because I need my own bridge. Bridges are partly a
           | design problem but mainly a build problem.
           | 
           | In software, if I find a library that does exactly what I
           | need, then my task is done. I just use that library. Software
           | is purely a design problem.
           | 
           | With agentic coding, we're about to enter a new phase of
           | plenty. If everyone is now a 10x developer then there's going
           | to be more software written in the next few years than in the
           | last few decades.
           | 
           | That massive flurry of creativity will move the industry even
           | further from the calm, rational, constrained world of
           | engineering disciplines.
        
             | mckn1ght wrote:
             | Software packages are more complicated than you make them
             | out to be. Off the top of my head:
             | 
             | - license restrictions, relicensing
             | 
             | - patches, especially to fix CVEs, that break assumptions
             | you made in your consumption of the package
             | 
             | - supply chain attacks
             | 
             | - sunsetting
             | 
             | There's no real "set it and forget it" with software reuse.
             | For that matter, there's no "set it and forget it" in civil
             | engineering either, it also requires monitoring and
             | maintenance.
        
               | VorpalWay wrote:
               | I have talked to colleagues who wrote software running on
               | microcontrollers a decade ago, that software still runs
               | fine. So yes there is set and forget software. And it is
               | all around us, mostly in microcontrollers. But
               | microcontrollers far outnumber classical computers
               | (trivially: each classical computer or phone contain many
               | microcontrollers such as SSD controllers, power
               | management, wifi, ethernet, cellular,... And then you can
               | add appliances, cars etc to that).
               | 
               | If something in software works and isn't internet
               | connected it really is set and forget. And far too many
               | things are being connected needlessly these days. I don't
               | need or want an online washing machine or car.
        
               | sarchertech wrote:
               | Ignoring the actual useful reasons to connect something
               | to be internet, the subscription business model is just
               | too damn tempting.
        
             | avianlyric wrote:
             | > Bridges are partly a design problem but mainly a build
             | problem.
             | 
             | I think this vastly underestimates how much of the build
             | problem is actually a design problem.
             | 
             | If you want to build a bridge, the fact one already exists
             | nearby covering a similar span is almost meaningless.
             | Engineering is about designing things while using the
             | minimal amount of raw resources possible (because cost of
             | design is lower than the cost of materials). Which means
             | that bridge in the other town is designed only within its
             | local context. What are the properties of the ground it's
             | built on? What local building materials exist? Where local
             | can be as small as only a few miles, because moving vast
             | quantities of material of long distances is really
             | expensive. What specific traffic patterns and loadings it
             | is built for? What time and access constraints existed when
             | it was built?
             | 
             | If you just copied the design of a bridge from a different
             | town, even one only a few miles up the road, you would more
             | than likely end up with a design that either won't stand up
             | in your local context, or simply can't be built. Maybe the
             | other town had plenty of space next to the location of the
             | bridge, making it trivial to bring in heavy equipment and
             | use cranes to move huge pre-fabbed blocks of concrete, but
             | your town doesn't. Or maybe the local ground conditions
             | aren't as stable, and the other towns design has the wrong
             | type of foundation resulting in your new bridge collapsing
             | after a few years.
             | 
             | Engineering in other disciplines don't have the luxury of
             | building for a very uniform, tightly controlled target
             | environment where it's safe to make assumptions that common
             | building blocks will "just work" without issue. As a result
             | engineering is entirely a design problem, i.e. how do you
             | design something that can actually be built? The building
             | part is easy, there's a reason construction contractors get
             | paid comparatively little compared to the engineers and
             | architects that design what they're building.
        
           | radiorental wrote:
           | >I actually believe that software "could" be an engineering
           | discipline but we have a long way to go
           | 
           | It certain mission critical applications, it is treated as
           | engineering. One example -
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DO-178B
        
           | wat10000 wrote:
           | I think it is in certain very limited circumstances. The
           | Space Shuttle's software seems like it was actually
           | engineered. More generally, there are systems where all the
           | inputs and outputs are well understood along with the entire
           | state space of the software. Redundancy can be achieved by
           | running different software on different computers such that
           | any one is capable of keeping essential functions running on
           | its own. Often there are rigorous requirements around test
           | coverage and formal verification.
           | 
           | This is tremendously expensive (writing two or more
           | independent copies of the core functionality!) and rapidly
           | becomes intractable if the interaction with the world is not
           | pretty strictly limited. It's rarely worth it, so the vast
           | majority of software isn't what I'd call engineered.
        
           | parliament32 wrote:
           | > can anyone on the product side actually predict traffic
           | 
           | Hypothetically, could you not? If you engineer a bridge you
           | have no idea what kind of traffic it'll see. But you know the
           | maximum allowable weight for a truck of X length is Y tons
           | and factoring in your span you have a good idea of what the
           | max load will be. And if the numbers don't line up, you add
           | in load limits or whatever else to make them match. Your
           | bridge might end up processing 1 truck per hour but that's
           | ultimately irrelevant compared to max throughput/load.
           | 
           | Likewise, systems in regulated industries have strict
           | controls for how many concurrent connections they're allowed
           | to handle[1], enforced with edge network systems, and are
           | expected to do load testing up to these numbers to ensure the
           | service can handle the traffic. There are entire products
           | built around this concept[2]. You could absolutely do this,
           | you just choose not to.
           | 
           | [1] See NIST 800-53 control SC-7 (3)
           | 
           | [2] https://learn.microsoft.com/en-us/azure/app-testing/load-
           | tes...
        
           | rdiddly wrote:
           | The way the authors of the book on material strengths got
           | those numbers, was through testing. If you're using mature
           | technologies, that testing has been done by others and you
           | can rely on it for your design, at least in a general way.
           | Otherwise you have to do the testing yourself, which is
           | something a structural engineering project might do also, if
           | it's unusual in some way.
        
           | jr3592 wrote:
           | There are also fundamentally different acceptance criteria
           | for a bridge vs a website. Failure modes differ. Consequences
           | of failure are nowhere near the same, so risk tolerance is
           | adjusted accordingly. Perhaps true "engineering" really boils
           | down to risk management... is what you're building so
           | potentially destructive that it requires extremely careful
           | thought and risk management? Engineering. If what you're
           | building can fail, and really cause no harm, that's just
           | building.
        
           | jimbokun wrote:
           | We have a long way to go but large software companies have
           | gotten really, really good at scaling to handle larger and
           | larger traffic loads. It's not like there are no materials to
           | consult to learn current best practices, even if there are
           | still more improvements to be made.
        
         | _dwt wrote:
         | > _A number of these phenomena have been bundled under the name
         | "Software Engineering". As economics is known as "The Miserable
         | Science", software engineering should be known as "The Doomed
         | Discipline", doomed because it cannot even approach its goal
         | since its goal is self-contradictory. Software engineering, of
         | course, presents itself as another worthy cause, but that is
         | eyewash: if you carefully read its literature and analyse what
         | its devotees actually do, you will discover that software
         | engineering has accepted as its charter "How to program if you
         | cannot."._
         | 
         | - Edsger Dijkstra, 1988
         | 
         | I think, unfortunately, he may have had us all dead to rights
         | on this one.
        
           | throwanem wrote:
           | One would as sensibly dismiss the concept of an assembly line
           | as "how to build a car if you cannot."
           | 
           | Dijkstra was a mathematician. It is a necessary discipline.
           | If it alone were sufficient, then the "program correctness"
           | fans would have simply and inarguably outdone everyone else
           | forty years ago at the peak of their efforts, instead of
           | having resorted to eloquently whiny, but still whiny,
           | thinkpieces (such as the 1988 example [1] quoted here above)
           | about how and why they would like history to understand them
           | as having failed.
           | 
           | [1] https://www.cs.utexas.edu/~EWD/ewd10xx/EWD1036.PDF [2]
           | 
           | [2] I will freely grant that the man both wrote and lettered
           | with rare beauty, which shames me even in this photocopier-
           | burned example when I compare it to the cheerful but largely
           | unrefined loops and scrawls of my own daily hand.
        
             | bigfishrunning wrote:
             | I think the real tragedy here is that we can spend *all* of
             | our time trying to improve the quality of our output, but
             | it simply doesn't matter, because as long as the button is
             | where the boss wants it to be and is the right color, all
             | is right with the world.
             | 
             | Literally nothing else matters, and we (or at least I) have
             | wasted a ton of time getting good at writing software.
        
             | _dwt wrote:
             | The formal methods people may yet have the last laugh. I
             | did not have Lean becoming a hyped programming language /
             | proof assistant on my bingo card for 2025-26 and yet here
             | we are, because these tools help us close the validation
             | loop for LLM agents. That is not dead which can eternal
             | lie...
             | 
             | But yes, I think the best rebuttal to Dijkstra-style
             | griping is Perlis' "one can't proceed from the informal to
             | the formal by formal means". That said I also believe kind
             | of like Chesterton's quote about Christianity, they've also
             | mostly not been tried and found wanting but rather found
             | hard and left untried. By myself included, although I do
             | enjoy a spot of the old dependent types (or at least their
             | approximations). There's an economic argument lurking there
             | about how robust most software really needs to be.
        
               | throwanem wrote:
               | Certainly, and it's at that economic argument that I
               | strive to get, I think.
               | 
               | Every so often an article makes the rounds on the
               | correctness and verification methods used for Space
               | Shuttle avionics software and applications of similar
               | import, or if not that then Nancy Leveson's comprehensive
               | 1995 review of the Therac-25 accidents. [1]
               | 
               | Most software doesn't need to be nearly so robust, but
               | Dijkstra constructs his argument as though all did,
               | hinging the inversion on the obvious and frankly shocking
               | cheat across the gap between his pages 14 and 15, ie,
               | that paragraph beginning "But before a computer is ready
               | to perform..." Here he casually, and without direct
               | acknowledgement much less justification, assumes as
               | rhetorically axiomatic that a program, not the machine
               | that executes it, is the original artifact of computing,
               | of which any reification merely constitutes less than
               | perfect instantiation, which he is then free to criticize
               | on the wholly theoretical grounds of mathematical beauty;
               | that is, on the grounds he prefers to inhabit in all
               | cases, whether to do so in any given example makes any
               | sense or not.
               | 
               | If that's his preferred ground, fair enough; after all,
               | he _was_ a mathematician. But his hypocrisy in concealing
               | the insistence by means of subtle rhetoric - mere pages
               | after inveighing against  "medieval thinking" by way of
               | an example, his "reasoning by analogy," faulting
               | specifically that argument made by way of specious
               | rhetoric! - casts suspicion on all that both precedes and
               | follows. From a layperson, I could regard it as honest
               | error, but I have known and loved academic
               | mathematicians, and I really can't conceive of any of
               | them leaving intact so consequential a mistake.
               | 
               | Perhaps Dijkstra was different, or merely becoming old,
               | but for someone so heavily invested in pushing a paradigm
               | of programming with mathematical rigor at its core, it
               | seems a remarkable flaw in what should be a crucial
               | argument (especially in advance of a solution for the
               | halting problem). I regret that flaw, because he isn't
               | all wrong about what an engineering paradigm can do to
               | the agency and optionality of programmers especially in
               | industry - not that his one extremely privileged position
               | therein, parallel with Feynman's time at Thinking
               | Machines, would much acquaint him with our desiderata
               | _or_ our constraints - and I would like to find that
               | point made in better company than he was able to give it.
               | 
               | But then, his conception never offered much in
               | preference, did it? The labor of mathematicians is scarce
               | and expensive: what good is a proof assistant to anyone
               | who can't understand its output, much less give it input?
               | And Dijkstra himself, not less strange a bird than any
               | other mathematician, famously did all he could to avoid
               | actually using the machines on whose correct use he here
               | wrote. (Hence his hand, which I complimented so highly
               | before. I also use a fountain pen, but as I said, not so
               | beautifully - and I'm glad I know how to use a keyboard
               | well, instead.)
               | 
               | There would not be more programmers or more software in a
               | world run on such principles, I think, than in this one -
               | on the contrary, less by far. Maybe that would be
               | preferable, but mostly not for the reasons Dijkstra
               | claimed.
               | 
               | [1] http://sunnyday.mit.edu/papers/therac.pdf
        
             | zephen wrote:
             | > One would as sensibly dismiss the concept of an assembly
             | line as "how to build a car if you cannot."
             | 
             | I agree, but I'm not sure this says what you think it does.
             | 
             | The _people_ on the car assembly line may know nothing of
             | engineering, and the assembly line has theoretically been
             | set up where that is OK.
             | 
             | The people on the software assembly line may also (and
             | arguably often do) know nothing of engineering, but it's
             | not clear that it is possible to set up the assembly line
             | in such a way so as to make this OK.
             | 
             | Arguably, the use of LLMs will at least have some utility
             | in helping us to figure this out, because a lot of LLMs are
             | now being used on the assembly line.
        
         | kerblang wrote:
         | Engineering is two things:
         | 
         | 1. Applied physics - Software is immediately disqualified.
         | Symbols have no physics.
         | 
         | 2. Ethics - Lives and livelihoods depend on you getting it
         | right. Software people want to be disqualified because that
         | stuff is so boring, but this is becoming a more serious issue
         | with every passing day.
        
           | eloisant wrote:
           | That might vary by countries but in France with have an
           | official "engineering degree" (diplome d'ingenieur) which is
           | also a master's degree, and most software developers have
           | this.
           | 
           | So most software developers in France are absolutely software
           | engineers.
        
           | zephen wrote:
           | > Software is immediately disqualified. Symbols have no
           | physics.
           | 
           | Many physical processes are controlled by software.
        
           | galbar wrote:
           | Software is applied mathematics, though
        
             | kerblang wrote:
             | And still not applied physics
        
         | perrygeo wrote:
         | > What are you building?
         | 
         | This x1000. The last 10 years in the software industry in
         | particular seems full of meta-work. New frameworks, new tools,
         | new virtualization layers, new distributed systems, new dev
         | tooling, new org charts. Ultimately so we can build... what
         | exactly? Are these necessary to build what we actually need? Or
         | are they necessary to prop up an unsustainable industry by
         | inventing new jobs?
         | 
         | Hard to shake the feeling that this looks like one big pyramid
         | scheme. I strongly suspect that vast majority of the
         | "innovation" in recent years has gone straight to supporting
         | the funding model and institution of the software profession,
         | rather than actual software engineering.
         | 
         | > I'm not even sure building software is an engineering
         | discipline at this point. Maybe it never was.
         | 
         | It was, and is. But not universally.
         | 
         | If you formulate questions scientifically and use the answers
         | to make decisions, that's engineering. I've seen it happen. It
         | can happen with LLMs, under the proper guidance.
         | 
         | If you formulate questions based on vibes, ignore the answers,
         | and do what the CEO says anyway, that's not engineering. Sadly,
         | I've seen this happen far too often. And with this mindset
         | comes the Claudiot mindset - information is ultimately useless
         | so fake autogenerated content is just as valuable as real work.
        
           | ryandrake wrote:
           | > The last 10 years in the software industry in particular
           | seems full of meta-work. Building new frameworks, new tools,
           | new virtualization layers, new distributed systems, new dev
           | tooling, new org charts. All to build... what exactly?
           | 
           | Don't forget App Stores. Everyone's still trying to build app
           | stores, even if they have nothing to sell in them.
           | 
           | It's almost as if every major company's _actual product_ is
           | their stock price. Every other thing they do is a side quest
           | or some strategic thing they think might convince analysts to
           | make their stock price to move.
        
             | jimbokun wrote:
             | > It's almost as if every major company's actual product is
             | their stock price.
             | 
             | They are pretty much legally obligated to act in this
             | manner.
        
               | wholinator2 wrote:
               | Has it always been this way? If not, did it used to be
               | better? If so, how can we get back?
        
               | nostrademons wrote:
               | The legal doctrine that a company's primary
               | responsibility is to maximize shareholder value dates
               | from the 1970s. It started with Milton Friedman with a
               | 1971 essay in the NYTimes [1] and then gained a lot of
               | currency throughout the 70s stagflation and economic
               | malaise. The final death-knell of the corporation as a
               | social enterprise came during the 1980s era of corporate
               | raiders and PE buyouts.
               | 
               | Note that the system that came before it had problems
               | too. In the 50s and 60s, the top marginal tax rate was
               | about 90%, which meant that above a certain level it made
               | almost no sense for a corporate executive to be paid
               | more. This kept executive salaries to a reasonable
               | multiple of employee salaries, but it meant that
               | executives and high-ranking managers tended to pay
               | themselves in perks. This was the "Mad Men" era of
               | private jets, private company apartments, secretaries who
               | were playthings, etc. Friedman's essay was basically
               | arguing against this world of corporate unaccountability
               | and corruption, where formal pay and compensation were
               | reasonable, but _informal_ perks and arrangements managed
               | to privilege the people in power in a complete opaque,
               | unaccountable way.
               | 
               | Turns out that power is a hell of a drug, and the people
               | in power will always find ways to use that to enrich
               | themselves regardless of what the laws and incentives
               | are.
               | 
               | [1]
               | https://www.nytimes.com/1970/09/13/archives/a-friedman-
               | doctr...
        
             | lejalv wrote:
             | > It's almost as if every major company's actual product is
             | their stock price.
             | 
             | It's almost as if we lived under capitalism.
             | 
             | What other thing would they do? They are literally setting
             | the Earth on fire to raise the stock price. No hostages
             | taken.
             | 
             | The true alignment problem behind the ploy AGI alignment
             | problem for pret-a-penser SF philosophers. Or
             | prestidigitators.
        
           | enraged_camel wrote:
           | >> The last 10 years in the software industry in particular
           | seems full of meta-work. Building new frameworks, new tools,
           | new virtualization layers, new distributed systems, new dev
           | tooling, new org charts. All to build... what exactly? Are
           | these tools necessary to build what we actually need? Or are
           | they necessary to prop up an unsustainable industry by
           | inventing new jobs?
           | 
           | This is because all the low-hanging fruit has already been
           | built. CRM. Invoicing. HR. Project/task management. And
           | hundreds of others in various flavors.
        
             | vinyl7 wrote:
             | It may exist (with a loose term of exist) but they are all
             | mostly garbage. There's still plenty opportunity to make
             | non-garbage version of things that already exist
        
               | enraged_camel wrote:
               | This is technically true but also a bit naive.
               | Established incumbents are very difficult to dislodge
               | with merely a better version of their products. This
               | becomes more true the larger the product and the average
               | customer size. A good example is QuickBooks, which is a
               | really janky accounting/bookkeeping software that is
               | almost universally hated, but newer and better solutions
               | haven't been able to capture much market share from it.
        
               | sarchertech wrote:
               | It's hard to actually build a better QuickBooks because
               | to build a better QuickBooks you need 1000+ integrations
               | that each took hundreds of man hours to build.
        
           | abustamam wrote:
           | This is a good point. I've seen people with really complex AI
           | setups (multiple agents collaborating for hours). But what
           | are they building? Are they building a react app with an
           | express backend? A next js app? Which itself is a layer on
           | top of an abstraction?
           | 
           | I haven't tried this myself but I'm curious if an LLM could
           | build a scalable, maintainable app that doesn't use a
           | framework or external libraries. Could be danger due to lack
           | of training data but I think it's important to build stuff
           | that people use, not stuff that people use to build stuff
           | that people use to build stuff that....
           | 
           | Not that meta frameworks aren't valuable, but I think they're
           | often solving the wrong problem.
        
             | jimbokun wrote:
             | When it comes time to debug would you rather ask questions
             | about and dig through code in a popular open source
             | library, or dig through code generated by an LLM
             | specifically for your project?
        
               | apsurd wrote:
               | If the LLM doing it, it doesn't matter, isn't that the
               | point?
               | 
               | Not saying I personally believe in this scenario, but
               | everything I've heard supports the idea that code is no
               | longer for humans to consume.
        
               | jimbokun wrote:
               | You are going to allow a product from a company you have
               | no reason to trust write important software for you and
               | put it into production without checking the code to see
               | what it does?
        
               | apsurd wrote:
               | I agree with you, which makes me seem like the laggard at
               | work. Devil's advocate is that AI-native development will
               | use AI to ask these questions and such. So whether it's a
               | framework or standard lib, def agree knowing your stuff
               | is what matters, but the tools to demonstrate this
               | knowledge is fast in flux.
               | 
               | Again, I am on the slow train. But this seems to be all I
               | hear. "code optimized for humans" is marked for death.
        
               | servercobra wrote:
               | A lot of us use software written by other people we have
               | no reason to trust and we haven't reviewed - most of open
               | source libraries.
        
               | sarchertech wrote:
               | At least with any open source library I use, many other
               | people have.
        
               | abustamam wrote:
               | Yeah a nice thing about OSS is that they usually come
               | with a community and you can ask questions or even submit
               | bug fixes.
        
               | apsurd wrote:
               | had another thought on my drive just now. nextjs is
               | really fantastic with LLM usage because there's so much
               | body of work to source from. previously i found nextjs
               | unbearable to work with with its bespoke isomorphic APIs.
               | too dense, too many nuances, too much across the stack.
               | 
               | with LLMs it spit it out amazingly fast. but does that
               | make nextjs the framework better or worse in design
               | paradigms, that LLM is a requirement in order to
               | navigate?
        
               | abustamam wrote:
               | The copout answer is it depends. I've debugged sloppy
               | code in React both before and after LLMs were commonly
               | used. I've also debugged very well-written custom
               | frameworks before and after LLMs.
               | 
               | I think with proper guardrails and
               | verification/validation, a custom framework could be
               | easier to maintain than sloppy React code (or insert
               | popular framework here).
               | 
               | My point is that as long as we keep the status quo of how
               | software is built (using popular tools that male it fast
               | and easy to build software without LLMs that often were
               | unperformant), we'll keep heading down this path of
               | trying to solve the problems of frameworks instead of
               | directly solving the problems with our app.
               | 
               | (BTW, it was your comment to my comment that inspired my
               | comment, talk about meta!
               | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47512874 )
        
           | jr3592 wrote:
           | > Are these tools necessary to build what we actually need?
           | 
           | I think the entire software industry has reached a saturation
           | point. There's not really anything missing anymore. Existing
           | tools do 99% of what we humans could need, so you're just
           | getting recycled and regurgitated versions of existing
           | tools... slap a different logo and a veneer on it, and its a
           | product.
        
             | thewebguyd wrote:
             | Resume driven development.
        
             | bluGill wrote:
             | The tools are mostly there, but there is a lot of need.
             | Quality can be much better. Quality is UI, reliability,
             | security, and a bunch of other similar things I can't think
             | of offhand.
        
             | yourapostasy wrote:
             | Oh ye of little faith in the possible.
             | 
             | We still don't have truly transparent transference in
             | locally-run software. Go anywhere in the world, and your
             | locally running software tags along with precisely
             | preserved state no matter what device you happen to be
             | dragging along with you, with device-appropriate
             | interfacing.
             | 
             | We still don't have single source documentation with
             | lineage all the way back to the code.
             | 
             | We still don't treat introspection and observability as two
             | sides of a troubleshooting coin (I think there are more
             | "sides" but want to keep the example simple). We do not
             | have the kind of introspection on modern hardware that Lisp
             | Machines had, and SOTA observability conversations still
             | revolve around sampling enough at the right places to make
             | up for that.
             | 
             | We still don't have coordination planes, databases, and
             | systems in general capable of absorbing the volume of
             | queries generated by LLM's. Even if LLM models themselves
             | froze their progress as-is, they're plenty sophisticated
             | enough when deployed _en masse_ to overwhelm existing data
             | infrastructure.
             | 
             | The list is endless.
             | 
             | IMHO our software world has never been so fertile with
             | possibilities.
        
               | Bolwin wrote:
               | It's interesting how everything you list is created
               | problems in the tools themselves.
               | 
               | If you step back and just look at "can this do what I
               | wanted" without worrying about what shit storm of
               | software makes it work.
               | 
               | Mind you perfectionists will always have work. That
               | doesn't mean anything.
        
           | Aurornis wrote:
           | > The last 10 years in the software industry in particular
           | seems full of meta-work. New frameworks, new tools, new
           | virtualization layers, new distributed systems, new dev
           | tooling, new org charts. Ultimately so we can build... what
           | exactly? Are these necessary to build what we actually need?
           | Or are they necessary to prop up an unsustainable industry by
           | inventing new jobs?
           | 
           | The overwhelming majority of real jobs are not related to
           | these things you read about on Hacker News.
           | 
           | I help a local group with resume reviews and job search
           | advice. A common theme is that junior devs really want to do
           | work in these new frameworks, tools, libraries, or other
           | trending topics they've been reading about, but discover that
           | the job market is much more boring. The jobs working on those
           | fun and new topics are few and far between, generally
           | reserved for the few developers who are willing to sacrifice
           | a lot to work on them or very senior developers who are
           | preferred for those jobs.
        
             | Fr0styMatt88 wrote:
             | There's a whole world out there that doesn't seem to be
             | addressed by the original comment. On one end of that scale
             | you have things like bespoke software for small businesses,
             | some niche inventory management solution that just sits
             | quietly in the corner for years. On the other end, there's
             | the whole world of embedded software, game dev, design
             | software, bespoke art pipeline tools...
             | 
             | It can seem that the majority of software in the world is
             | about generating clicks and optimising engagement, but
             | that's just the very loud minority.
        
             | someprick wrote:
             | Not that you asked... But I would be happy with a junior
             | position writing production C or ASM - but I assume that
             | those sorts of positions are on the other end of the same
             | boat. Who the hell has any use for an amateur dev. with an
             | autistic fascination and _zero_ practical experience?
             | 
             | Someone here shared an article here, recently, espousing
             | something along the lines of "home garden programming." I
             | see software development moving in this direction, just
             | like machining did: Either in a space-age shop, that looks
             | more like a lab, with a fix-axis "machining center," or in
             | the garage with Grandpappy's clapped out Atlas - and
             | nothing in between.
        
           | mysterydip wrote:
           | I've seen so many articles of "introducing flimflam: a
           | squiggle for burfy" it makes my head spin.
        
           | blargey wrote:
           | > I strongly suspect that vast majority of the "innovation"
           | in recent years has gone straight to supporting the funding
           | model and institution of the software profession, rather than
           | actual software engineering.
           | 
           | Feels like there's a counter to the frequent citation of
           | Jevon's Paradox in there somewhere, in the context of LLM
           | impact on the software dev market. Overestimation of external
           | demand for software, or at least any that can be fulfilled by
           | a human-in-the-loop / one-dev-to-many-users model? The end
           | goal of LLMs feels like, in effect, the Last Framework, and
           | the end of (money in) meta-engineering by devs for devs.
        
           | jimbokun wrote:
           | In my lifetime software has given us:
           | 
           | * the ability to find essentially any information ever
           | created by anyone anywhere at anytime,
           | 
           | * the ability to communicate with anyone on Earth over any
           | distance instantaneously in audio, video, or text,
           | 
           | * the ability to order any product made anywhere and have it
           | delivered to our door in a day or two,
           | 
           | * the ability to work with anyone across the world on shared
           | tasks and projects, with no need for centralized offices for
           | most knowledge work.
           | 
           | That was a massive undertaking with many permutations
           | requiring lots of software written by lots of people.
           | 
           | But it's largely done now. Software consumes a significant
           | fraction of all waking hours of almost everyone on Earth. New
           | software mainly just competes with existing software to
           | replace attention. There's not much room left to expand the
           | market.
           | 
           | So it's difficult to see the value of LLMs that can generate
           | even more software even faster. What value is left to provide
           | for users?
           | 
           | LLMs themselves have the potential to offering staggering
           | economic value, but only at huge social cost: replacing human
           | labor on scales never seen before.
           | 
           | All of that to say, maybe this is the reason so much time is
           | being spent on meta-work today than on actual software
           | engineering.
        
             | HeWhoLurksLate wrote:
             | I have watched artists _thoughtfully_ integrate digital
             | lighting and the like at a scale I 'd never seen before the
             | LLMs rolled up and made it possible to get programs to work
             | without knowing how to program.
             | 
             | The fundamental ceiling of what an LLM can do when
             | connected to an IDE is _incredible_ , and orders of
             | magnitude higher than the limits of any no-code / low-code
             | platform conceived thus far. "Democratizing" software -
             | where now the only limits are your imagination, tenacity,
             | and ability to keep the bots aligned with your vision, is
             | allowing incredible things that wouldn't have happened
             | otherwise because you now don't strictly need to learn to
             | program for a programming-involved art project to work out.
             | 
             | Should you learn how to code if you're doing stuff like
             | that? Absolutely. But is it letting people who have no idea
             | about computing dabble their feet in and do extremely
             | impressive stuff for the low cost of $20/month? Also yes.
        
               | emporas wrote:
               | Emacs can be configured with no code written by the user
               | and Linux can be controlled with minimal user knowledge
               | of the command line. Still some knowledge is necessary in
               | most cases, but nowhere near what was required a handful
               | of years back.
        
               | mikestorrent wrote:
               | Now this is the right take. It's one thing for us to do
               | navel-gazing into the recursive autononomous future; it's
               | another to step back and see what Normal People can do,
               | now that the walls are coming down around our profession.
               | Creating new walls is probably not the answer! From the
               | Cathedral and Bazaar, we now have an entire metaphorical
               | city of development happening, by people who would not
               | have thought it possible a few years ago.
               | 
               | I don't know what the future of my job holds other than
               | what it always had: helping people who have good ideas to
               | get them done properly.
        
               | Forgeties79 wrote:
               | The thing is though it all still feels
               | so...rudderless/pointless sometimes?
               | 
               | When digital cameras came out, it democratized filmmaking
               | _immensely_. But it wasn't just people screwing around -
               | amazing new works of art, received positively by
               | audiences and critics alike, exploded in number. They
               | wound up winning film fests, garnering millions of views
               | (and fans) online, and even on big screens world wide,
               | almost _immediately_
               | 
               | Where are the vibe coded apps that are actually _good_?
               | Where are the new, innovative creations built by "normal"
               | people? Because by now you'd think we'd see them. It's
               | all been parlor tricks, proofs of concept, and post
               | mortems on how a bot ruined half a year's work or
               | whatever. The "good stuff" is still happening behind
               | closed doors, led by experienced engineers on existing
               | projects. It's a productivity multiplier more than
               | anything it seems, but it doesn't seem useful as a tool
               | for _new_ people to make _new_ things in any given space.
        
             | nizsle wrote:
             | Agree. Productivity tools all the way down.
        
             | didgetmaster wrote:
             | I see the next really big task for software as the ability
             | to separate the signal from the noise. Sifting the wheat
             | from the chaff has gone from a 'nice to have' to 'rescue my
             | sanity'.
             | 
             | Maybe agents and AI in general will help with that. Maybe
             | it will just make the problem worse.
        
             | chickensong wrote:
             | > But it's largely done now
             | 
             | Somehow I doubt that. The monkey is never satisfied.
        
             | code4life wrote:
             | I'm not sophisticated enough to enjoy abstract art. Maybe
             | AI will bring abstract software projects to the world next.
             | 
             | I can imagine all the people staring at these software
             | projects amazed at the genius it must have taken to create
             | them. :)
        
             | paganel wrote:
             | > What value is left to provide for users?
             | 
             | A spreadsheet editor with at most a couple of hundred MBs
             | in size that can compete against Excel, for example. While
             | also not eating from RAM resources. The same goes for a new
             | browser and a new browser engine, it's time for Chrome to
             | have a real competitor, it has become a mess. I can of
             | other such examples, but these are the 2 biggest ones.
        
         | cucumber3732842 wrote:
         | Software engineering is real engineering because we rigorously
         | engineer software the way real engineers engineer real things.
         | 
         | Software engineering is not real engineering because we do not
         | rigorously engineer software the way "real" engineers engineer
         | real things. <--- YOU ARE HERE
         | 
         | Software engineering is real engineering because we
         | "rigorously" engineer software the way "real" engineers
         | engineer real things.
         | 
         | Edit: quotes imply sarcasm.
        
         | psychoslave wrote:
         | Hey Visual Basic is still there, and last time I checked it was
         | still the goto option to do OLE Automation.
         | 
         | RoR is no longer at its peak, but is still have its marginal
         | stable share of the web, while PHP gets the lion part[1]
         | 
         | Ok, Lotus Notes is really relic from an other era now. But it's
         | not a PL, so not the same kind of beast.
         | 
         | Well, also LLMs are different beast compared to PL. They
         | actually really are the things that evocate the most the
         | expression "taming the beast" when you need to deal with them.
         | So it indeed as far away as possible of engineering as one can
         | probably use a computer to build any automation. Maybe to stay
         | in scientific realms ethology would be a better starting point
         | than a background in informatics/CS to handle these stuffs.
         | 
         | [1] https://w3techs.com/technologies/comparison/pl-php
        
         | cyanydeez wrote:
         | As far as I can tell, the only reason agents exist is because
         | large context increase the probability of context poisoning,
         | purely by the inability of these models to actually make
         | conceptual decisions about the context.
         | 
         | I was interested in making a semi-automous skill improvement
         | program for open code, and I wired up systemd to watch my
         | skills directory; when a new skill appeared, it'd run a command
         | prompt to improve it and cohere it to a skill specification.
         | 
         | It was told to make a lock file before making a skill, then
         | remove the lock files. Multiple times it'd ignore that, make
         | the skill, then lock and unlock on the same line. I also wanted
         | to lock the skill from future improvements, but that context
         | overode the skills locking, so instead I used the concept of
         | marking the skills as readonly.
         | 
         | So in reality, agents only exist because of context poisoning
         | and overlap; they're not some magicaly balm to improving the
         | speed of work, or multiplying the effort, they simply prevent
         | context poisoning from what's essentially subprocesses.
         | 
         | Once you realize that, you really have to scale back the
         | reality because not only are they just dumb, they're not
         | integrating any real information about what they're doing.
        
         | hu3 wrote:
         | > What are you building? Does the tool help or hurt?
         | 
         | > People answered this wrong in the Ruby era, they answered it
         | wrong in the PHP era, they answered it wrong in the Lotus Notes
         | and Visual BASIC era.
         | 
         | I'm assuming you're saying these tools hurt more than help?
         | 
         | In that case I disagree so much that I'm struggling to reply.
         | It's like trying to convince someone that the Earth is not
         | flat, to my mental model.
         | 
         | PHP, Ruby and VB have more successful code written in them than
         | all current academic or disproportionately hyped languages will
         | ever have combined.
         | 
         | And there's STILL software being written in them. I did Visual
         | Basic consulting for a greenfield project last week despite my
         | current expertise being more with Go, Python, C# and C. And
         | there's a RoR work lined up next. So the presence gap between
         | these helpful tools and other minor, but over index tools, is
         | still increasing.
         | 
         | It's easy to think that the languages one see mor often in HN
         | are the prevalent ones but they are just the tip of the
         | iceberg.
        
         | devin wrote:
         | Absolutely agree.
         | 
         | I'm watching a team which is producing insane amounts of code
         | for their team size, but the level of thought that has gone
         | into all of the details that would make their product a fit
         | predator to run at scale and solve the underlying business
         | problem has been neglected.
         | 
         | Moving really fast in the wrong direction is no help to anyone.
        
       | ketzo wrote:
       | I think the core idea here is a good one.
       | 
       | But in many agent-skeptical pieces, I keep seeing this specific
       | sentiment that "agent-written code is not production-ready," and
       | that just feels... wrong!
       | 
       | It's just completely insane to me to look at the output of Claude
       | code or Codex with frontier models and say "no, nothing that
       | comes out of this can go straight to prod -- I need to review
       | every line."
       | 
       | Yes, there are still issues, and yes, keeping mental context of
       | your codebase's architecture is critical, but I'm sorry, it just
       | feels borderline archaic to pretend we're gonna live in a world
       | where these agents have to have a human poring over every single
       | line they commit.
        
         | bluGill wrote:
         | Maybe in the future humans won't need to pour over every line.
         | However I quickly learn which interns I can trust and which I
         | need to pour over their code - I don't trust AI because it has
         | been wrong too often. I'm not saying AI is useless - I do most
         | of my coding with an agent, but I don't trust it until I verify
         | every line.
        
           | bensyverson wrote:
           | I did this for a while... and until Opus 4.5, I couldn't
           | fully trust the model. But at this point, while it does make
           | the occasional mistake, I don't need to scrutinize every
           | line. Unit and integration tests catch the bugs we can
           | imagine, and the bugs we can't imagine take us by surprise,
           | which is how it has always been.
        
             | bluGill wrote:
             | Even with 4.6 I find there are a lot of mistakes it makes
             | that I won't allow. Though it is also really good at
             | finding complex thread issues that would take me forever...
        
         | pixl97 wrote:
         | We live in a world where every line of code written by a human
         | should be reviewed by another human. We can't even do that!
         | Nothing should go straight to prod ever, ever ever, ever.
        
           | latchkey wrote:
           | > Nothing should go straight to prod ever, ever ever, ever.
           | 
           | I'm one-shotting AI code for my website without even looking
           | at it. Straight to prod (well, github->cf worker). It is
           | glorious.
        
             | bikelang wrote:
             | Were people reviewing your hobby projects previously? Were
             | you on-call for your hobby website? If not - then it sounds
             | like nothing changed?
        
               | latchkey wrote:
               | This is my business website.
        
               | pixl97 wrote:
               | [Note: It may be very risky to submit anything to this
               | users site]
               | 
               | I'm not sure doing silly things, then advertizing it is a
               | great way to do business, but to each their own.
        
               | latchkey wrote:
               | So many assumptions.
               | 
               | It is a static website hosted on CF workers.
        
             | ehsanu1 wrote:
             | That a personal website? Prod means different things in
             | different contexts. Even then, I'd be a bit worried about
             | prompt injection unless you control your context closely
             | (no web access etc).
        
               | latchkey wrote:
               | Prompt injection?! Give me an example.
        
             | jon-wood wrote:
             | There's a middle ground here. Code for your website? Sure,
             | whatever, I assume you're not Dell and the cost of your
             | website being unavailable to some subset of users for a
             | minute doesn't have 5 zeroes on the end of it. If you're
             | writing code being used by something that matters though
             | you better be getting that stuff reviewed because LLMs can
             | and will make absolutely ridiculous mistakes.
        
               | latchkey wrote:
               | > There's a middle ground here.
               | 
               | I'm responding to this statement: "Nothing should go
               | straight to prod ever, ever ever, ever."
        
             | dirkc wrote:
             | It's tough to not interpret this as "I don't care about my
             | website". Do you not check the copy? Or what if AI one-
             | shots something that will harm your reputation in the
             | metadata?
        
               | latchkey wrote:
               | Then I'll read the diffs after the fact and have fix AI
               | it. -\\_(tsu)_/-
        
               | dirkc wrote:
               | That sounds better. I assume the stakes are low enough
               | that you are happy reviewing after the fact, but setting
               | up a workflow to check the diffs before pushing to
               | production shouldn't be too difficult
        
               | latchkey wrote:
               | Of course. I could do a PR review process, but what's the
               | point. It is just a static website.
        
             | Vegenoid wrote:
             | Prod in this context doesn't refer to one person's website
             | for their personal project. It refers to an environment
             | where downtime has consequences, generally one that
             | multiple people work on and that many people rely on.
        
               | rkomorn wrote:
               | This is a bit of a no true Scotsman take but I agree with
               | it anyway.
        
               | latchkey wrote:
               | It is not a personal project.
        
           | bdangubic wrote:
           | > Nothing should go straight to prod ever, ever ever, ever
           | 
           | Air Traffic Controller software - sure. 99% of other
           | softwares around that are not mission-critical (like
           | Facebook) just punch it to production - "move fast and break
           | shit" has been cool way before "AI"
        
             | alecbz wrote:
             | There's a lot of software in between Air Traffic Controller
             | and Facebook. And honestly would Meta be okay with
             | Instagram or Facebook going down even for just a few
             | minutes? I'd think at this point that'd be considered a
             | fairly severe incident.
             | 
             | Even if we ignore criticality, things just get really messy
             | and confusing if you push a bunch of broken stuff and only
             | try to start understanding what's actually going on after
             | it's already causing issues.
        
               | bdangubic wrote:
               | > And honestly would Meta be okay with Instagram or
               | Facebook going down even for just a few minutes?
               | 
               | sure, they coined the term "move fast and break things"
               | 
               | and not every "bug" brings the system down, there is bugs
               | after bugs after bugs in both facebook and insta being
               | pushed to production daily, it is fine... it is (almost)
               | always fine. if you are at a place where "deploying to
               | production" is a "thing" you better be at some super
               | mission-critical-lives-at-stake project or you should
               | find another project to work on.
        
               | pixl97 wrote:
               | > there is bugs after bugs after bugs
               | 
               | These are the bugs after bugs after bugs after bugs after
               | bugs.
               | 
               | Simply put they are going through dev, QA, and UAT first
               | before they are the bugs that we see. When you're running
               | an organization using software of any size writing bugs
               | that takes the software down is extremely easy, data
               | corruption even easier.
        
               | bdangubic wrote:
               | I wholeheartedly agree. I just don't agree with:
               | 
               | > We live in a world where every line of code written by
               | a human should be reviewed by another human. We can't
               | even do that! Nothing should go straight to prod ever,
               | ever ever, ever
               | 
               | Things should 100% go to prod whenever they need to go to
               | prod. While this in theory makes sense, there is _insane
               | amount of ceremony_ in large number of places I have seen
               | personally where it takes an act of congress to deploy to
               | production all the while it is just ceremony, people are
               | hunting other people with links to PR sent to various
               | slack channels  "hey anyone available to take a look at
               | this" and then someone is like "I know nothing about that
               | service/system but I'll look at approve." I would wager a
               | high wager that this "we must review every line of code"
               | - where actually implemented - is largely a ceremony.
               | Today I deployed three services to production without
               | anyone looking at what I did. Deploying to production
               | should absolutely be a non-event in places that are ran
               | well and where right people are doing their jobs.
        
               | alecbz wrote:
               | I'm sure some companies do this poorly but there's lots
               | of places where code review happens on every PR and
               | there's processes and systems in place to make sure it's
               | an easy process (or at least, as easy as it should be).
               | Many large tech companies have things pushed to prod
               | automatically many, many times per day and still have
               | code review for all changes going out.
        
               | fragmede wrote:
               | Even with code review, a well configured CI/CD system is
               | going to include a wealth of automated unit and
               | integration tests, and then also a complex deploy system
               | involving canaries and ramp-up and blue/green deployment
               | and flags and monitoring and alerts that's backed by a
               | pager and on-call rotation with runbooks. Code review
               | simply will never be perfect and catch 100% of issues, so
               | systems are designed with that in mind.
               | 
               | So then then question is what's actually reasonable given
               | today's code generating tools? 0% review seems foolish
               | but 100% seems similarly unreal. Automated code review
               | systems like CodeRabbit are, dare I even say, reasonable
               | as a first line of defense these days. It all comes down
               | too developer velocity balanced with system stability.
               | Error budgets like Google's SRE org is able to enforce
               | against (some) services they support are one way of
               | accomplishing that, but those are hard to put into
               | practice.
               | 
               | So then, as you say, it takes an act of Congress to get
               | anything deployed.
               | 
               | So in the abstract, imo it all comes down to the quality
               | of the automated CI/CD system, and developers being on
               | call for their service so they feel the pain of service
               | unreliability and don't just throw code over the wall.
               | But it's all talk at this level of abstraction. The
               | reality of a given company's office politics and the
               | amount of leverage the platform teams and whatever passes
               | for SRE there have vs the rest of the company make all
               | the difference.
        
               | alecbz wrote:
               | >sure, they coined the term "move fast and break things"
               | 
               | Yeah I'm aware, but as any company gets larger and has
               | more and more traffic (and money) dependent on their
               | existing systems working, keeping those systems working
               | becomes more and more important.
               | 
               | There's lots of things worth protecting to ensure that
               | people keep using your product that fall short of "lives
               | are at stake". Of course it's a spectrum but lots of
               | large enterprises that aren't saving lives but still care
               | a lot about making sure their software keeps running.
        
         | miltonlost wrote:
         | You say it's borderline archaic. I say trusting agents enough
         | to not look at every single line is an abdication of ethics,
         | safety, and engineering. You're just absolving yourself of any
         | problems. I hope you aren't working in medical devices or else
         | we're going to get another Therac-25. Please have some sort of
         | ethics. You are going to kill people with your attitude.
        
           | tru1ock wrote:
           | Almost nobody works on medical devices... And some of you
           | lucky folks might be working with mega minds everyday, but
           | the rest of us are but shadows and dust. I trust 5.4 or 4.6
           | more than most developers. Through applying specific pressure
           | using tests and prompts I force it to built better code for
           | my silly hobby game than I ever saw in real production
           | software. Before those models I was still on the other side
           | of the line but the writing is on the wall.
        
         | bikelang wrote:
         | Were you not reviewing every line when a human wrote it before
         | it went to prod? I think the output of these tools is about as
         | good as a human would write - which means it needs thorough
         | review if I'm going to be on the hook to resolve its issues at
         | 2AM.
        
           | alecbz wrote:
           | Yeah in many places we had two humans with context on every
           | line, and now we're advocating going to zero?
        
           | AnimalMuppet wrote:
           | Maybe that's the distinction. If I write it, you can call me
           | at 2AM. If an AI wrote it, call the AI at 2AM.
           | 
           | Oh, it can't take the phone call and fix the issue? _Then I
           | 'm reviewing its output before it goes into prod._
        
             | cableshaft wrote:
             | This is a weird analogy. You can ask the A.I. to fix the
             | issue at any time of day (assuming the person asking
             | someone with enough technical knowledge that can evaluate
             | the fix at least).
             | 
             | You won't always be able to get ahold of someone at 2am.
             | You won't be able to get ahold of me at 2am, for example.
             | It'll throw some notification on my screen and I won't see
             | it until I wake up.
        
         | SpicyLemonZest wrote:
         | It's a conversation I've had many times in my career and I'm
         | sure I'll have many more. We've got code that seems plausible
         | on a surface level, at a glance it solves the problem it's
         | meant to solve - why can't we just send it to prod and address
         | whatever problems we find with it later?
         | 
         | The answer is that it's very easy for bad code to cause more
         | problems than it solves. This:
         | 
         | > Then one day you turn around and want to add a new feature.
         | But the architecture, which is largely booboos at this point,
         | doesn't allow your army of agents to make the change in a
         | functioning way.
         | 
         | is not a hypothetical, but a common failure mode which
         | routinely happens today to teams who don't think carefully
         | enough about what they're merging. I know a team of a half-
         | dozen people who's been working for years to dig themselves out
         | of that hole; because of bad code they shipped in the past,
         | changes that should have taken a couple hours without agentic
         | support take days or weeks even with agentic support.
        
         | alecbz wrote:
         | How do you know which lines you need to review and which you
         | don't?
         | 
         | Does it feel archaic because LLMs are clearly producing output
         | of a quality that doesn't require any review, or because having
         | to review all the code LLMs produce clips the productivity
         | gains we can squeeze out of them?
        
         | postexitus wrote:
         | You sound like you are working on unimportant stuff. Sure, go
         | ahead, push.
        
           | MrScruff wrote:
           | Honestly a lot of useful software is 'unimportant' in the
           | sense that the consequences of introducing a bug or bad code
           | smell aren't that significant, and can be addressed if
           | needed. It might well be for many projects the time saved not
           | reviewing is worth dealing with bugs that escape testing.
           | Also, it's entirely possible for software to be both well
           | engineered and useless.
        
         | layer8 wrote:
         | It's not archaic, it's due diligence, until we can expect AI to
         | reliably apply the same level of diligence -- which we're still
         | pretty far off from.
        
         | slopinthebag wrote:
         | If you keep the scope small enough it can be production ready
         | ootb, and with some stuff (eg. a throwaway React component) who
         | really cares. But I think it's insane to look at the output of
         | Claude Code or Codex with frontier models and say "yep, that
         | looks good to me".
         | 
         | Fwiw OP isn't an agent skeptic, he wrote one of the most
         | popular agent frameworks.
        
         | bigstrat2003 wrote:
         | > It's just completely insane to me to look at the output of
         | Claude code or Codex with frontier models and say "no, nothing
         | that comes out of this can go straight to prod -- I need to
         | review every line."
         | 
         | It's insane to me that someone can arrive at any other
         | conclusion. LLMs _very obviously_ put out bad code, and you
         | have no idea where it is in their output. So you have to review
         | it all.
        
         | mememememememo wrote:
         | Depends on your prod.
         | 
         | For an early startup validating their idea, that prod can take
         | it.
         | 
         | For a platform as a service used by millions, nope.
        
         | movedx01 wrote:
         | Not having a code review process is archaic engineering
         | practice at this point(at any point in history, really), be it
         | for human written or AI written code.
        
         | manmal wrote:
         | The article didn't say to read every line though. Just the
         | interesting ones. If you don't know where the interesting ones
         | are, you have already lost.
        
       | ontouchstart wrote:
       | I am "playing" with both pi and Claude (in docker containers)
       | with local llama.cpp and as an exercise, I asked both the same
       | question and the results are in this gist:
       | 
       | https://gist.github.com/ontouchstart/d43591213e0d3087369298f...
       | 
       | (Note: pi was written by the author of the post.)
       | 
       | Now it is time to read them carefully without AI.
        
         | ontouchstart wrote:
         | What I have leaned from the exercise above is that we paid more
         | attention and spent more resources on "metadata" than real
         | data. They are the rabbit holes that lead us to more metadata
         | and forget what we really want.
         | 
         | We are all rabbits.
        
       | bluGill wrote:
       | I only have so long on earth. (I have no idea how long) I need
       | things to be faster for me. Sometimes that means I need to take
       | extra time now so they don't come back to me later.
        
       | markus_zhang wrote:
       | If there is anyone who absolutely should slow down, it's the
       | folks who are actively integrating company data with an agent --
       | you are literally helping removing as many jobs as possible, from
       | your colleagues, and from yourselves, not in the long term, but
       | in the short term.
       | 
       | Integration is the key to the agents. Individual usages don't
       | help AI much because it is confined within the domain of that
       | individual.
        
         | latchkey wrote:
         | > you are literally helping removing as many jobs as possible,
         | from your colleagues, and from yourselves, not in the long
         | term, but in the short term
         | 
         | Pull the bandaid off quickly, it hurts less.
        
         | abletonlive wrote:
         | > If there is anyone who absolutely should slow down, it's the
         | folks who are actively integrating company data with an agent
         | -- you are literally helping removing as many jobs as possible,
         | from your colleagues, and from yourselves, not in the long
         | term, but in the short term.
         | 
         | I'm one of those people and I'm not going to slow down. I want
         | to move on from bullshit jobs.
         | 
         | The only people that fear what is coming are those that lack
         | imagination and think we are going to run out of things to do,
         | or run out of problems to create and solve.
        
           | guzfip wrote:
           | > I want to move on from bullshit jobs.
           | 
           | So are you aiming for death poverty? Once those bullshit jobs
           | go, we're going to find a lot of people incapable of
           | producing anything of value while still costing quite a bit
           | to upkeep. These people will have to be gotten rid of
           | somehow.
           | 
           | > and think we are going to run out of things to do, or run
           | out of problems to create and solve.
           | 
           | There will be plenty of problems to solve. Like who will wipe
           | the ass of the very people that hate you and want to
           | subjugate you.
        
             | abletonlive wrote:
             | Name a single time doomers were right about anything.
             | Doomers consistently overstate their expected outcome in
             | every single domain and consistently fail to predict how
             | society evolves and adapts.
             | 
             | Again:
             | 
             | The only people that fear what is coming are those that
             | lack imagination and think we are going to run out of
             | things to do, or run out of problems to create and solve.
        
               | guzfip wrote:
               | > Name a single time doomers were right about anything.
               | 
               | - NFTs
               | 
               | - Surveillance schizos
               | 
               | - Global Pedophile Cabal schizos
               | 
               | - Anyone who didn't believe we were a year out from Star
               | Trek living when LLMs first started picking up steam
               | 
               | - People who predicted the flood of people entering
               | Software via bootcamps, etc. would never cause any
               | problems because their god of software is consuming the
               | world too quickly for supply and demand to ever be a real
               | concern.
               | 
               | - Anyone amongst the sea of delusional democrats who did
               | indeed believe Trump could win a second term.
               | 
               | All of those doomers were vindicated, and that's just
               | recently.
        
               | api wrote:
               | I was thinking the other day about why a "global
               | pedophile cabal" would be a thing. I still think that
               | phrase overstates it a bit, but not _that much_.
               | 
               | Committing a crime with someone bonds you to them.
               | 
               | First, it's a kind of shared social behavior, and it's
               | one that is exclusive to you and your friends who commit
               | the same kinds of crimes. Any shared experience bonds
               | people, crimes included. Having a shared secret also
               | bonds people.
               | 
               | Second, it creates an implied pact of mutually assured
               | destruction. Everyone knows the skeletons in everyone
               | else's closet, so it creates a web of trust. Anyone
               | defecting could possibly be punished by selectively
               | revealing their crimes, and vice versa. Game
               | theoretically it overcomes tit-for-tat and enables all-
               | cooperate interactions, at least to some extent, and even
               | among people who otherwise don't like each other or don't
               | have a lot in common.
               | 
               | Third, it separates the serious from the unserious. If
               | you want to be a member of the club, do the bad thing.
               | It's a form of high cost membership gating.
               | 
               | This works for other kinds of crimes too. It's not that
               | unusual for criminal gangs to demand that initiates
               | commit a crime and provide evidence, or commit a crime in
               | front of existing members. These can be things like
               | robbery, murder, and so on. Anyone not willing to do this
               | probably isn't serious and can't be trusted. Once someone
               | does do it, you know they're really in.
               | 
               | It naturally creates cabals. The crime comes first, the
               | cabal second, but then the cabal can realize this and
               | start using the crime as a gateway to admission.
               | 
               | Every mutual interest creates a community, but a secret
               | criminal mutual interest creates a special kind of tight
               | knit community. In a world that's increasingly atomized
               | and divided, that's power. I think it neatly explains how
               | the Epstein network could be so powerful and effective.
        
               | abletonlive wrote:
               | - NFTS doomers? I mean I appreciate the humor here.
               | 
               | - Surveillance schizos - Society still works
               | 
               | - Global Pedophile Cabal schizos - Again, funny use of
               | 'doomers' but that's what the current society seems to be
               | run by so I wouldn't say it's fitting for doomerism.
               | 
               | - People who predicted the flood of people entering
               | Software via bootcamps, etc. would never cause any
               | problems because their god of software is consuming the
               | world too quickly for supply and demand to ever be a real
               | concern.                  -- I'm a software "engineer"
               | for ~14 years now. I still have no concern.
               | 
               | None of these things are that disruptive to our society
               | at large. You will still be able to walk down the street
               | and grab a Big Mac pretty much any day of the week. A
               | large portion of society is going to look at all of what
               | you're worried about and say "it's not that serious"
               | while consuming their 20 second videos.
        
               | tock wrote:
               | What do you think is a valid doomer warning that came
               | true? Or do you think literally everything that is
               | pessimistic is doomerism?
        
               | abletonlive wrote:
               | You're asking the wrong person. I haven't seen a single
               | example of a doomer warning that came true. Can you
               | provide one? It seems like society still exists when I
               | look out the window and the impact that doomers assert
               | are greatly exaggerated in every instance.
        
               | guzfip wrote:
               | So are disingenuous or just stupid? Of course society
               | exists still, but what society?
               | 
               | Only the very dumbest think "doom" is some apocalyptic
               | scene from a Hollywood film in which humans are nearly
               | wiped out.
               | 
               | "Doom" is instead when swaths of Roman citizens with
               | rights amidst a powerful, civically and technologically
               | impressive hegemony, over time find themselves reduced to
               | unfree serfs. They and their descendants would remain in
               | that position for centuries until a horrific disease came
               | through and killed so many of them that the serfdom
               | became untenable.
        
               | abletonlive wrote:
               | > Only the very dumbest think "doom" is some apocalyptic
               | scene from a Hollywood film in which humans are nearly
               | wiped out.
               | 
               | So you're all just out here telling everybody they should
               | stop what they are doing because of the doom, but the
               | doom isn't that impactful in the grand scheme of things?
               | 
               | That checks out with my understanding of doomers. Just a
               | bunch of useless whiners that produce a bunch of
               | meaningless noise for everybody else.
               | 
               | > "Doom" is instead when swaths of Roman citizens with
               | rights amidst a powerful, civically and technologically
               | impressive hegemony, over time find themselves reduced to
               | unfree serfs. They and their descendants would remain in
               | that position for centuries until a horrific disease came
               | through and killed so many of them that the serfdom
               | became untenable.
               | 
               | And look at where we are now. Rome has been surpassed
               | many times over. The quality of life for the average
               | living person is FAR SURPASSED anything that _anybody_ in
               | Rome could dream of. Seems like it wasn 't worth worrying
               | about what happened in Rome. If you make "doom" some kind
               | of local event that affects a small group of people in a
               | short window of time while trying to tell everybody they
               | should hit the brakes and pause - maybe you should
               | reflect on how these two things contradict each other.
               | 
               | In other words, if the doom isn't that doomful in the
               | grand scheme of things then your argument is just again,
               | moving goalposts. There are clear examples for every doom
               | scenario you're talking about where the world moved on
               | and built bigger and better. I guess it's on you to wait
               | until that's no longer true but until then the ball is in
               | your court. Just realize that you should at some point
               | reflect and realize that every swing and miss is just
               | more evidence that doomers are consistently wrong about
               | the _impact_ of their observations.
        
               | guzfip wrote:
               | > You will still be able to walk down the street and grab
               | a Big Mac pretty much any day of the week.
               | 
               | Yeah while you're on your shift break there.
        
               | whaleofatw2022 wrote:
               | > People who predicted the flood of people entering
               | Software via bootcamps, etc. would never cause any
               | problems because their god of software is consuming the
               | world too quickly for supply and demand to ever be a real
               | concern.
               | 
               | How was this group vindicated? It absolutely has caused
               | problems at orgs and in the industry.
               | 
               | Just look at all the linkedin/twitter/youtube garbage of
               | influencers trying to post boot camp tier advice and a
               | sizable portion of new developers latching on to often
               | questionable advice/viewpoints.
        
               | guzfip wrote:
               | > How was this group vindicated? It absolutely has caused
               | problems at orgs and in the industry.
               | 
               | I think you misread. In fairness, I arranged the sentence
               | awkwardly, as I do often. I think my mind was conjuring
               | the various dooms and then trying to rephrase the doom
               | into the doomer.
               | 
               | What I mean is the people who warned against it were
               | vindicated.
               | 
               | Of course vindicated may not the best word to use. If I
               | say the world blows up tomorrow and you say it can never,
               | and then it blown up, perhaps I'm not necessarily
               | vindicated. But I certainly get a brief moment of
               | schadenfreude
        
               | margalabargala wrote:
               | Climate change would be a big one.
               | 
               | Also, there have been plenty of awful things caused by
               | technological progress. Tons of death and poverty was
               | created by the transition to factories and mechanization
               | 150 years ago.
               | 
               | Did we come out the other end with higher living
               | standards? Yes, but that doesn't make the decades of
               | brutal transition period any less awful for those
               | affected.
        
               | abletonlive wrote:
               | > Climate change would be a big one.
               | 
               | That's generous. Climate scientists were right, climate
               | doomers were definitely wrong.
               | 
               | Society is mostly unchanged due to climate change. That's
               | not to say climate has no effect, but it is certainly
               | still not some doomer scenario that's played out. New
               | York and Florida are most certainly not underwater as
               | predicted by the famous "Inconvenient Truth". People
               | still live in deserts just as they always have. Human
               | lifespan is still increasing. We have less hunger
               | worldwide than ever before, etc.
               | 
               | Climate change doomers conveniently leave out the part
               | where climate has ALWAYS affected society and is one of
               | the main inputs to our existence, therefore we are
               | extremely adaptable to it.
               | 
               | Before "climate change" ever entered the general
               | consciousness, climate wiped out civilizations MORE
               | FREQUENTLY than it does now. All signs point to doomers
               | being wrong and yet they all hold onto it stubbornly.
               | 
               | Doomers were never impressive because they got anything
               | right, they are impressive because they have the unique
               | skill of moving the goalpost when they are wrong. Any
               | time you think the goalpost can't be moved further out,
               | they prove it's possible.
        
               | podgietaru wrote:
               | The effects of climate change are just starting to
               | happen. Ecosystems are dying. Very few "climate doomers"
               | thought the world would be like the Day after Tomorrow.
               | 
               | The earth is becoming more hostile to it's inhabitants.
               | There are famines caused by climate change. We will
               | undoubtedly within the next 20 years see mass migration
               | from the areas hardest hit.
               | 
               | Climate scientists, and climate reporting, often
               | UNDERSTATED the worst of these effects.
               | 
               | I think it'd be worth stating what your definition of
               | doomerism is. For me, seeing the increases in forest
               | fires, seeing the sky reddened and the air quality
               | diminish and floods and hurricanes increase... I don't
               | think being able to buy a big mac doesn't make that any
               | less pessimistic.
        
               | abletonlive wrote:
               | > The earth is becoming more hostile to it's inhabitants.
               | There are famines caused by climate change. We will
               | undoubtedly within the next 20 years see mass migration
               | from the areas hardest hit.
               | 
               | If this is true then how are there more people than ever,
               | fewer famines than ever? Migrations due to climate has
               | been a part of human history since the beginning of all
               | of human, and animal history. It's almost as if that's
               | the default state of being. Are people migrating more
               | than ever? Yes, but not just because of climate change,
               | because it's so god damn easy to do so in modern times.
               | 
               | We aren't walking across a sheet of ice to try to survive
               | a drought. We are on boats with motors and a life vest at
               | our worst, in first class getting wine and dined at our
               | most hedonistic. Entire (illegal) migration pipelines
               | have been made and turned into a black-market economy.
               | There are government funded apps created to support these
               | migration pipelines.
               | 
               | Again, you're a doomer that has failed to predict the
               | _impact_ of what you 're observing, and it mostly comes
               | down to the fact that you underestimate human
               | creativeness and ingenuity, and human drive for progress.
               | 
               | You frame every scenario as if humans will just stare at
               | impending doom like deer in headlights and let it wash
               | over them, while at the same time arguing that mass
               | amounts of people are so adaptable that they would be
               | willing to traverse the entire globe to find a better
               | life. Your model of reality contradicts itself from the
               | very start.
        
               | metobehonest wrote:
               | The CO2 concentration continues to climb year after year,
               | at an accelerating rate. The world hasn't ended yet
               | because it's still 2026 but it doesn't mean it won't.
               | 
               | We're on a hothouse earth trajectory. All signs point to
               | you not being aware of serious climate research and
               | hanging on to a naive Steven Pinker "everything is always
               | improving" outlook.
        
               | abletonlive wrote:
               | > The world hasn't ended yet because it's still 2026 but
               | it doesn't mean it won't.
               | 
               | All signs point to you being a doomer that is excellent
               | at moving the goal post. "If it doesn't happen tomorrow
               | surely it will happen the next day."
               | 
               | You can do this until the end of time. A waste of brain
               | cycles for anybody with a real job. This is the exact
               | same pattern for every single kind of doomer and they are
               | all wrong in the exact same way over and over. You still
               | can't name a single doomer point of view that has played
               | out to some kind of catastrophic society collapsing event
               | accurately.
               | 
               | It's always "it's coming" eventually.
               | 
               | Running out of oil, overpopulation, financial system
               | collapse that sends us back to the dark ages, climate
               | change that causes everybody to move migrate to Colorado,
               | a coronavirus that permanently makes us board up indoors.
               | None of it ever plays out the way you doomers _fantasize_
               | about it playing out.
               | 
               | When some kind of catastrophic society collapsing event
               | happens it's most likely going to be because of something
               | that is _not_ in the mainstream consciousness.
               | 
               | If doomers were good at predicting these events and how
               | it will play out they'd all be rich as hell, but no, they
               | are for the most part a bunch of broke whiners. (Except
               | for those doomers that have made their wealth off of
               | scaring people)
        
               | metobehonest wrote:
               | >If doomers were good at predicting these events and how
               | it will play out they'd all be rich as hell, but no, they
               | are for the most part a bunch of broke whiners.
               | 
               | Oh, the classic "if you're so smart then why aren't you
               | rich" non argument. I'm sure Carl Sagan was a just whiny
               | loser because he didn't figure out how to become a
               | billionaire from knowing how physics works. His
               | prediction that the planet would warm several degrees by
               | the mid to late 21st century failed to reward him what he
               | was owed. By the way we haven't even gotten halfway there
               | yet, so your "shifting goalposts" thesis is null.
               | 
               | People who push dangerous neoliberal propaganda like
               | carbon capture or "infinite growth on a finite planet is
               | possible" on the other hand do get very rich, and they
               | don't even need to make good predictions. Such is the
               | planet governed by pedophiles.
               | 
               | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wp-WiNXH6hI
        
               | abletonlive wrote:
               | > People who push dangerous neoliberal propaganda like
               | carbon capture or "infinite growth on a finite planet is
               | possible"
               | 
               | Good thing we are not confined to a closed system in any
               | practical sense. You act like we haven't already used
               | space for economic growth. It's also a good thing that
               | the concept of "growth" in this context is not limited by
               | physical constraints. You're talking about growth of
               | value, not growth in a physical sense. Did you think the
               | valuation of every company was based on something
               | physical 1:1? Do you live somewhere whose financial
               | system is based on a gold standard or something? There
               | are multiple levels where your idea falls apart.
               | 
               | Crazy to so confidently assert an idea which is
               | conceptually flawed on a surface level.
               | 
               | You actually think the economy has reached the point of
               | maximum growth due to the laws of thermodynamics? Please
               | tell me you didn't formulate your entire worldview on
               | this idea because it's unlikely that you can function in
               | this society in a way that makes your life better or
               | those around you better with this flawed model of
               | reality.
               | 
               | Doomers are always hurting themselves first and foremost
               | and then dragging everybody else around them down with
               | them.
        
               | metobehonest wrote:
               | >You actually think the economy has reached the point of
               | maximum growth due to the laws of thermodynamics?
               | 
               | Of course it hasn't. The real problem is that the
               | atmosphere is being poisoned beyond repair, at an
               | increasing pace, and that is tied to economic growth.
               | That will eventually un-terraform the planet into a place
               | hostile to agriculture, be it in 50 or 100 years. We're
               | nowhere near being able to reverse this in any way, and
               | there are no signs of it slowing down.
               | 
               | Are actuaries stupid doomers whose worldviews make them
               | unable to function in society? You decide:
               | https://actuaries.org.uk/media/ni4erlna/planetary-
               | solvency.p...
               | 
               | >Good thing we are not confined to a closed system in any
               | practical sense.You act like we haven't already used
               | space for economic growth.
               | 
               | Oh, am I to believe space mining fantasies maybe? I'm
               | sure we'll get there, just after AGI solves nuclear
               | fusion for us in the next 5 years. Then we can have star
               | trek replicators to go with them. I just wish it would
               | happen sooner, that sea floor mining stuff is starting to
               | gain traction and it isn't looking pretty.
               | 
               | >It's also a good thing that the concept of "growth" in
               | this context is not limited by physical constraints
               | 
               | It actually is. The concept of "decoupling" of the
               | economy from material resources has been debunked for a
               | while now. Theoretically there can be efficiency gains
               | that generate further growth, but those are usually
               | quickly cannibalized by increasing demand, plus we're
               | deep on the diminishing returns phase in a lot of fields.
               | 
               | I recommend this resource: https://eeb.org/wp-
               | content/uploads/2019/07/Decoupling-Debunk...
        
               | einr wrote:
               | > All signs point to you being a doomer that is excellent
               | at moving the goal post.
               | 
               | All signs point to it being really easy for you to
               | dismiss "doomers" as wrong and "scientists" as right
               | retroactively. If someone was _wrong_ about the direction
               | of the climate crisis 20 years ago they were a doomer. If
               | they were right they were a scientist. Easy!
               | 
               | You can apply this to anything that went to shit with the
               | world in the past, not just the climate. If someone
               | predicted the financial crisis of 2008, they were not a
               | doomer, they were a particularly savvy financial analyst.
               | All the others who keep predicting crises are wrong,
               | until they're right, and then they're not a doomer, so
               | _your_ point always stands no matter what. Super
               | convenient!
        
               | abletonlive wrote:
               | > If someone predicted the financial crisis of 2008, they
               | were not a doomer, they were a particularly savvy
               | financial analyst.
               | 
               | Zoom out buddy, the 2008 financial crisis is a blip. The
               | world's financial system is almost exactly the same as it
               | was pre-2008. Hardly the collapse that made the world
               | stop spinning that doomers have a fetish for. That's not
               | a good example to support your argument.
               | 
               | You fundamentally cannot grasp the concept of doomerism.
               | Doomerism isn't simply observing some first order effect
               | "The oceans will increase by 2 degrees".
               | 
               | Doomerism is observing that first order effect and trying
               | to assert that we should change behavior at a societal
               | level because they above everybody else, can predict what
               | the secondary or tertiary+ effects are for society. "The
               | oceans will increase by 2 degrees, all marine life will
               | perish, hurricanes will make vast swaths of the world
               | uninhabitable. Therefore we should stop eating beef!"
               | 
               | And they are wrong about it every - single - time. Do you
               | need examples?
               | 
               | Society has a long history of ignoring doomers, and the
               | impact? Society is right and Doomers are consistently
               | wrong.
               | 
               | Society keeps going. We have all of history up until the
               | current moment, but from that we understand so far,
               | Doomers have never been right about how disruptive their
               | observations are for society at large. If you want to
               | provide a contradiction to this statement please do so.
               | 
               | Nuclear power doomers -> completely wrong. Fukashima was
               | the latest that proved this
               | 
               | Covid doomers -> wrong. in 50 years covid will be as
               | forgotten as the spanish flu was.
               | 
               | Climate doomers -> wrong. famines are down across the
               | globe and population still growing, still no clear
               | example of the disruption to society or world in a way
               | that is new. For any disruption we can find historical
               | disruptions of the same category with _more_ impact to
               | humans and the world. Floods? More people killed in
               | historical floods and more societies extinguished from
               | them  >100 years ago. Fires? More people killed in fires
               | and more cities completely burned down from them >100
               | years ago.
               | 
               | Overpopulation doomers -> wrong, population still
               | growing, but leveling off and not collapsing
               | 
               | AI doomers -> wrong on both sides so far. no bubble pop,
               | capabilities still advancing, humans are also still
               | relevant
               | 
               | Peak oil doomers -> completely wrong, more oil being
               | discovered, didn't account for technology, didn't account
               | for other forms of energy
               | 
               | With this kind of track record, you'd think that doomers
               | would have enough self reflection to realize that their
               | model of reality is insufficient at predicting outcomes
               | and shut the fuck up, but nope - they just keep on trying
               | to force a square peg into a round hole while annoying
               | everybody around them who are trying to do something to
               | move the needle towards a better life that doesn't
               | involve becoming a vegetable so the earth can heal or
               | whatever.
               | 
               | Compare this against another model of reality: Whatever
               | challenges humans face, _when_ it 's dire enough, we will
               | adapt and overcome.
               | 
               | You can backtest this model against all of human history.
               | It would be dishonest to say that this model isn't more
               | accurate so far than whatever model you're using as a
               | doomer.
               | 
               | No need for doomers to virtue signal and lecture
               | everybody about their shitty model of reality that fails
               | to backtest
        
           | markus_zhang wrote:
           | If you don't want to slow down, maybe accelerating is the
           | second better option for ordinary people.
        
           | travmiller wrote:
           | Exactly. The amount of bs bloatwork anywhere I've ever worked
           | is insane and growing. We need to move on.
        
           | lpcvoid wrote:
           | That's a mighty high horse you are riding there
        
             | abletonlive wrote:
             | Ah yes, me on a high horse. Not the person whose entire
             | worldview depends on defying nash equilibrium. You're all
             | wasting brain cycles to discuss some unrealistic
             | cooperative agreement to slow down and sing 'kumbaya' and
             | telling us that if we don't get to this state that we will
             | on the streets homeless. If this is me on a horse then you
             | are on top of an ivory tower managing my beast of burden.
        
         | mememememememo wrote:
         | We reduce jobs every time we e.g. fix a bug. Where do you stop?
        
           | markus_zhang wrote:
           | I think there is a line somewhere people need to draw, when a
           | technology such as AI invades into ALL areas, threatening to
           | reduce a percentage of jobs so quickly, without the potential
           | to creating new TYPES of jobs that can feed many. It is
           | different from computers, and it is different from trains.
        
       | sjkoelle wrote:
       | i just wish someone would explain why i prefer cline to claude
       | code so much
        
       | jaffee wrote:
       | > You installed Beads, completely oblivious to the fact that it's
       | basically uninstallable malware.
       | 
       | Did I miss something? I haven't used it in a minute, but why is
       | the author claiming that it's "uninstallable malware"?
        
         | vardalab wrote:
         | It's not really malware, but it's a mess. It installed so much
         | shit and it interfered with your git hooks and stuff. It was
         | kind of messy. I kind of gave up on it. I just went back to
         | using built-in claude code todowrite tasks.
        
           | the_mitsuhiko wrote:
           | It managed to throw itself into a global file for me that
           | Claude used which caused beads to appear in random projects
           | on my machine. Because of how it was there the agent
           | attempted to re-install beads after I already removed it
           | because the guy hook errored.
        
           | skybrian wrote:
           | Haven't tried it, but this rewrite might be better?
           | 
           | https://github.com/Dicklesworthstone/beads_rust
        
           | moeffju wrote:
           | Try https://github.com/hmans/beans - I find it a refreshingly
           | pragmatic take that works great with my agents use.
        
         | michaelbarton wrote:
         | Malware might be a bit of stretch but could refer to this
         | issue?
         | 
         | https://github.com/steveyegge/beads/issues/1857
        
         | dwaltrip wrote:
         | Maybe they meant un-uninstallable?
        
         | wild_egg wrote:
         | Have a read through everything that's needed for a full
         | uninstall:
         | https://gist.github.com/banteg/1a539b88b3c8945cd71e4b958f319...
         | 
         | Minimalist alternative with no hooks or dependencies for the
         | curious: https://github.com/wedow/ticket
        
       | gedy wrote:
       | It's not even the complexity which, you have to realize: many
       | managers and business types think it's just fine to have code no
       | one understands because AI will do it.
       | 
       | I don't agree, but bigger issue to me is many/most companies
       | don't even know what they want or think about what the purpose
       | is. So whereas in past devs coding something gave some throttle
       | or sanity checks, now we'd just throw shit over wall even faster.
       | 
       | I'm seeing some LinkedIn lunatics brag about "my idea to
       | production in an _hour_ " and all I can think is: that is
       | probably a terrible feature. No one I've worked with is that good
       | or visionary where that speed even matters.
        
       | simonw wrote:
       | Useful context here is that the author wrote Pi, which is the
       | coding agent framework used by OpenClaw and is one of the most
       | popular open source coding agent frameworks generally.
        
         | PaulHoule wrote:
         | ... people like that have a way of writing articles that don't
         | seem to say anything at all.
        
         | sehugg wrote:
         | That's hilarious. I've been following Mario since his work on
         | libGDX and RoboVM.
         | 
         | His blog post on pi is here:
         | https://mariozechner.at/posts/2025-11-30-pi-coding-agent/
        
         | slopinthebag wrote:
         | That's a great shout because I'm sure a lot of people would
         | otherwise just discredit this take as just another anti-ai
         | skeptic. But he probably has more experience working with LLM's
         | and agents than most of us on this site, so his opinion holds
         | more weight than most.
        
           | bigstrat2003 wrote:
           | If you were going to dismiss an argument because of who it
           | comes from rather than its content, that is a flaw in your
           | thinking. The argument is correct, or it isn't, no matter who
           | said it.
        
             | roughly wrote:
             | Your ability to evaluate whether the argument is correct is
             | limited. In theory, the author and the correctness of the
             | argument are unrelated; in practice, the degree of
             | experience the author has with the topic they're making an
             | argument on does indeed have some correlation with the
             | argument and should influence the attention you give to
             | arguments, especially counterintuitive ones.
        
             | simonw wrote:
             | That doesn't work for me. Knowing who is making the
             | argument is important for understanding how credible the
             | parts of their argument that derive from their personal
             | experience are.
             | 
             | If someone anonymous says "Using coding agents carelessly
             | produces junk results over time" that's a whole lot less
             | interesting to me than someone with a proven track record
             | of designing and implementing coding agents that other
             | people extensively use.
        
             | zephen wrote:
             | > The argument is correct, or it isn't, no matter who said
             | it.
             | 
             | Yes, but we all have insufficient intelligence and
             | knowledge to fully evaluate all arguments in a reasonable
             | timeframe.
             | 
             |  _Argument from authority_ is, indeed, a logical fallacy.
             | 
             | But that is not what is happening here. There is a huge
             | difference between someone saying "Trust me, I'm an expert"
             | and a third party saying "Oh, by the way, that guy has a
             | metric shitton of relevant experience."
             | 
             | The former is used _in lieu_ of a valid argument. The
             | latter is used as a sanity check on all the things that you
             | don 't have time to verify yourself.
        
             | seattle_spring wrote:
             | Someone making an argument needs relevant
             | experience/context to substantiate their argument. Just
             | because the end opinion is "correct", doesn't mean they
             | arrived there in a reasonable way.
        
             | pkilgore wrote:
             | Appeal to authority, the logical fallacy, is not attempting
             | to claim that authority is irrelevant or has zero signal
             | whatsoever.
        
         | jimbokun wrote:
         | > "Heard joke once: Man goes to doctor. Says he's depressed.
         | Says life seems harsh and cruel. Says he feels all alone in a
         | threatening world where what lies ahead is vague and uncertain.
         | Doctor says, "Treatment is simple. Great clown Pagliacci is in
         | town tonight. Go and see him. That should pick you up." Man
         | bursts into tears. Says, "But doctor...I am Pagliacci."
         | 
         | https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/141645-heard-joke-once-man-...
        
         | andai wrote:
         | For reference, the creator of OpenClaw has roughly the opposite
         | philosophy:
         | 
         | https://steipete.me/posts/2025/shipping-at-inference-speed
        
       | shevy-java wrote:
       | > While all of this is anecdotal, it sure feels like software has
       | become a brittle mess
       | 
       | That may be the case where AI leaks into, but not every software
       | developer uses or depends on AI. So not all software has become
       | more brittle.
       | 
       | Personally I try to avoid any contact with software developers
       | using AI. This may not be possible, but I don't want to waste my
       | own time "interacting" with people who aren't really the ones
       | writing code anymore.
        
       | SoftTalker wrote:
       | > Companies claiming 100% of their product's code is now written
       | by AI consistently put out the worst garbage you can imagine. Not
       | pointing fingers, but memory leaks in the gigabytes, UI glitches,
       | broken-ass features, crashes
       | 
       | One thing about the old days of DOS and original MacOS: you
       | couldn't get away with nearly as much of this. The whole computer
       | would crash hard and need to be rebooted, all unsaved work lost.
       | You also could not easily push out an update or patch --- stuff
       | had to work out of the box.
       | 
       | Modern OSes with virtual memory and multitasking and user
       | isolation are a lot more tolerant of shit code, so we are getting
       | more of it.
       | 
       | Not that I want to go back to DOS but Wordperfect 5.1 was pretty
       | damn rock solid as I recall.
        
         | windowliker wrote:
         | Another factor at work is the use of rolling updates to fix
         | things that should better have been caught with rigorous
         | testing before release. Before the days of 'always on' internet
         | it was far too costly to fix something shipped on physical
         | media. Not that everything was always perfect, but on the whole
         | it was pretty well stress-tested before shipping.
         | 
         | The sad truth is that now, because of the ease of pushing your
         | fix to everything while requiring little more from the user
         | than that their machine be more or less permanently connected
         | to a network, even an OS is dealt with as casually as an
         | application or game.
        
         | MisterTea wrote:
         | > Modern OSes with virtual memory and multitasking and user
         | isolation are a lot more tolerant of shit code, so we are
         | getting more of it.
         | 
         | It's not the glut of compute resources, we've already accepted
         | bloat in modern software. The new crutch is treating every
         | device as "always online" paired with mantra of "ship now! push
         | fixes later." Its easier to setup a big complex CI pipeline you
         | push fixes into and it OTA patches the users system. This way
         | you can justify pushing broken unfinished products to beat your
         | competitors doing the same.
        
         | skybrian wrote:
         | I think you're just recalling the few software products that
         | were actually good. There was plenty of crap software that
         | would crash and lose your work in the old days.
        
           | HerbManic wrote:
           | I always found it funny how Word on Window 3.1/95 would have
           | a day dream moment and just completely lock up, usually when
           | you were about to save the document
           | 
           | I still save stuff every few minutes out of habits formed in
           | the 90s.
           | 
           | Old DOS stuff could either be a total nightmare or some of
           | the most brilliant code you had ever seen. Thats just the way
           | having no giard rails goes.
        
           | nunez wrote:
           | Lol right!
           | 
           | Remember when OS uptime was super duper important? Now it's a
           | given that you can basically never restart your computer and
           | be fine.
        
       | gmuslera wrote:
       | This assumes that only (AI/Agentic) stupidity comes into play,
       | with no malice on sight. But if things go wrong because you
       | didn't noticed the stupidity, malice will pass through too. And
       | there is a a big profit opportunity, and a broad vulnerable
       | market for malice. Is not just correctness or uptime what comes
       | into play, but bigger risks for vulnerabilities or other
       | malicious injected content.
        
       | caldis_chen wrote:
       | hope my boss can see this
        
       | rglover wrote:
       | Nature will handle this in time. Just expect to see a "Bear
       | Stearns moment" in the software world if this spirals completely
       | out of control (and companies don't take a hint from recent
       | outages).
        
         | michaelbarton wrote:
         | I'm worried we end up with an AIG moment, and we all end up on
         | the hook.
        
           | rglover wrote:
           | That's a valid fear imo.
        
       | profdevloper wrote:
       | It's 2026, the "fuck" modifier for post titles by "thought
       | leaders" has been done already ad nauseam. Time to retire it and
       | give us all a break.
        
         | niam wrote:
         | If we're on the subject of tropes: https://theonion.com/report-
         | stating-current-year-still-leadi...
        
       | jschrf wrote:
       | I for one look forward to rewriting the entirety of software
       | after the chatbot era
        
       | trinsic2 wrote:
       | > And I would like to suggest that slowing the fuck down is the
       | way to go. Give yourself time to think about what you're actually
       | building and why. Give yourself an opportunity to say, fuck no,
       | we don't need this. Set yourself limits on how much code you let
       | the clanker generate per day, in line with your ability to
       | actually review the code.
       | 
       | This is a great point.
       | 
       | I have been avoiding LLM's for awhile now, but realized that I
       | might want to try working on a small PDF book to Markdown
       | conversion project[0]. I like the Claude code because command
       | line. I'm realizing you really need to architect with good very
       | precise language to avoid mistakes.
       | 
       | I didn't try to have a prompt do everything at once. I prompted
       | Claude Code to do the conversion process section by section of
       | the document. That seemed to reduce the mistake the agent would
       | make
       | 
       | [0]: https://www.scottrlarson.com/publications/publication-my-
       | fir...
        
       | BloondAndDoom wrote:
       | This aligns with my observation from product design point as
       | well.
       | 
       | Product design has a slightly different problem than engineering,
       | because the speed of development is so high we cannot dogfood and
       | play with new product decisions, features. By the time I've
       | realized we made a stupid design choice and it doesn't really
       | work in real world, we already built 4 features on top of it.
       | Everyone makes bad product decisions but it was easy and natural
       | to back out of them.
       | 
       | It's all about how we utilize these things, if we focus on sheer
       | speed it just doesn't work. You need own architecture and product
       | decisions. You need to use and test your products with humans
       | (and automate those as regression testing). You need to able to
       | hold all of the product or architecture in your mind and help
       | agents to make the right decisions with all the best practice
       | you've learned.
        
         | angrydev wrote:
         | Agree. The issue was never, how can we get our engineers to
         | squirt out more lines of code in a day? It has always been, how
         | can we effectively iterate using customer feedback to deliver
         | the highest quality product. That type of thing needs time to
         | bake.
        
       | Towaway69 wrote:
       | What the article doesn't touch on is the vendor lock-in that is
       | currently underway. Many corps are now moving to an AI-based
       | development process that is reliant on the big AI providers.
       | 
       | Once the codebase has become fully agentic, i.e., only agents
       | fundamentally understand it and can modify it, the prices will
       | start rising. After all, these loss making AI companies will
       | eventually need to recoup on their investments.
       | 
       | Sure it will be - perhaps - possible to interchange the
       | underlying AI for the development of the codebase but will they
       | be significantly cheaper? Of course, the invisible hand of the
       | market will solve that problem. Something that OPEC has
       | successfully done for the oil market.
       | 
       | Another issue here is once the codebase is agentic and the price
       | for developers falls sufficiently that it will significant
       | cheaper to hire humans again, will these be able to understand
       | the agentic codebase? Is this a one-way transition?
       | 
       | I'm sure the pro-AIs will explain that technology will only get
       | cheaper and better and that fundamentally it ain't an issue. Just
       | like oil prices and the global economy, fundamentally everything
       | is getting better.
        
         | fantasizr wrote:
         | this is a good point. Some of the ai companies are trying to
         | hook cs students so they'll only know "dev" as a function of
         | their products. First one's free as they say (the drug
         | dealers).
        
           | Towaway69 wrote:
           | I agree, that is the great danger that CS students aren't
           | even taught the fundamentals of "computer science" any
           | longer. It would be the equivalent of physics students not
           | learning Newtons laws or e-m-c-squared.
           | 
           | Probably there is an issue with how much there is in CS -
           | each programming language basically represents a different
           | fundamental approach to coding machines. Each paradigm has
           | its application, even COBOL ;)
           | 
           | Perhaps CS has not - yet - found its fundamental rules and
           | approaches. Unlike other sciences that have hard rules and
           | well trodden approaches - the speed of light is fixed but not
           | the speed of a bit.
        
         | SaucyWrong wrote:
         | This is a great point, and I routinely use it as an argument
         | for why seasoned professionals should work hard to keep their
         | skills and why new professionals should build them in the first
         | place. I would never be comfortable leasing my ability to
         | perform detailed knowledge work from one of these companies.
         | 
         | Sometimes the argument lands, very often it doesn't. As you
         | said, a common refrain is, "but prices won't go up, cost to
         | serve is the highest it will ever be." Or, "inference is
         | already massively profitable and will become more so in the
         | future--I read so on a news site."
         | 
         | And that remark, for me, is unfortunately a discussion-ender. I
         | just haven't ever had a productive conversation with somebody
         | about this after they make these remarks. Somebody saying these
         | things has placed their bets already and are about to throw the
         | dice.
        
         | Aurornis wrote:
         | > the prices will start rising. After all, these loss making AI
         | companies will eventually need to recoup on their investments.
         | 
         | I would bet a lot of money that the price of LLM assistance
         | will go down, not up, as the hardware and software advance.
         | 
         | Every genre-defining startup seems to go through this same
         | cycle where the naysayers tell us that it's all going to
         | collapse once the investment money runs out. This was
         | definitely true for technologies without use cases (remember
         | the blockchain-all-the-things era?) but it is not true for
         | businesses that have actual users.
         | 
         | Some early players may go bust by chasing market share without
         | a real business plan, like the infamous Webvan grocery delivery
         | service. But even Webvan was directionally correct, with
         | delivery services now a booming business sector.
         | 
         | Uber is another good example. We heard for years that
         | ridesharing was a fad that would go away as soon as the VC
         | money ran out. Instead, Uber became a profitable company and
         | almost nobody noticed because the naysayers moved on to
         | something else.
         | 
         | AI is different because the hardware is always getting faster
         | and cheaper to operate. Even if LLM progress stalled at Opus
         | 4.6 levels today, it would still be very useful and it would
         | get cheaper with each passing year as hardware improved.
         | 
         | > I'm sure the pro-AIs will explain that technology will only
         | get cheaper and better and that fundamentally it ain't an
         | issue. Just like oil prices
         | 
         | Comparing compute costs to oil prices is apples to oranges. Oil
         | is a finite resource that comes out of the ground and the
         | technology to extract it doesn't improve much over decades. AI
         | compute gets better and cheaper every year because the
         | technology advances rapidly. GPU servers that were as expensive
         | as cars a few years ago are now deprecated and available for
         | cheap because the new technology is vastly faster. The next
         | generation will be faster still.
         | 
         | If you're mentally comparing this to things like oil, you're
         | not on the right track
        
           | methodical wrote:
           | While I fundamentally agree with the basis of compute getting
           | cheaper by the year, I think a missed consideration here is
           | the fact that these models are also requiring exponentially
           | more compute with each iteration to train, in a way that
           | arguably has outscaled the advances in compute.
           | 
           | Whether a generalized and broadly usable model will be able
           | to trained within some N multiple of our current compute
           | availability allowing the price to come down with iterative
           | compute advances is yet to be seen. With the current race to
           | the top in terms of SOTA models and increasingly iteratively
           | smaller improvements on previous generations, I have a
           | feeling the scaling need for compute will outpace the
           | improvements in our hardware architecture, and that's if
           | Moore's law even holds as we start to reach the bounds of
           | physics and not engineering.
           | 
           | However as it stands today, essentially none of these
           | providers are profitable so it's really a question of whether
           | that disconnect will come within their current runway or not
           | and they'll be required to increase their price point to stay
           | alive and/or raise more capital. It's pure conjecture either
           | way.
        
           | Towaway69 wrote:
           | > Oil is a finite resource that comes out of the ground
           | 
           | Yes but the chips, hardware, copper cables, silicon and all
           | the rest of the components that make up a server are finite.
           | Unless these magically appear from outer space, we'll face
           | the same resource constraints as everything else that is
           | pulled out of the ground.
           | 
           | These components are also far more fragile to source, see
           | COVID and the collapse of global supply chains. Also the
           | factories to create these components are expensive to build
           | and fragile to maintain. See the Dutch company that seems to
           | be the sole supply of certain manufacturing skills.[1]
           | 
           | > I would bet a lot of money that the price of LLM assistance
           | will go down, not up, as the hardware and software advance.
           | 
           | My bet would be that it would fuel the profits of AI
           | companies and not make the price of AI come down. Over supply
           | makes price come down but if supply is kept artificially low,
           | then prices stay high.
           | 
           | That's the comparison to OPEC and oil. There is plenty of oil
           | to go around yet the supply is capped and thereby prices kept
           | high. There is no guarantee that savings in hardware or
           | supply will be passed on by AI corps.
           | 
           | Indeed there is no guarantee that there will be serious
           | competition in the market, OPEC is a monopoly so why not have
           | an AI monopoly? At the moment, all major players in AI are
           | based in the same geopolitical sphere, making a monopoly more
           | likely, IMHO.
           | 
           | In the end, it's all speculation what will happen. It just
           | depends on which fairy tail one believes in.
           | 
           | [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ASML_Holding
        
             | Aurornis wrote:
             | > Yes but the chips, hardware, copper cables, silicon and
             | all the rest of the components that make up a server are
             | finite. Unless these magically appear from outer space,
             | we'll face the same resource constraints as everything else
             | that is pulled out of the ground.
             | 
             | Raw material cost is _not_ a driver of datacenter GPU
             | costs.
             | 
             | > Over supply makes price come down but if supply is kept
             | artificially low, then prices stay high.
             | 
             | Where are you getting "supply kept artificially low" when
             | we're in the middle of an explosion of datacenter buildouts
             | and AI companies?
             | 
             | We're in a race to the bottom on pricing. I haven't seen a
             | realistic argument for why you think prices are going to go
             | up. You're starting with a conclusion and trying to find
             | reasons it might be true.
        
           | nunez wrote:
           | > almost nobody noticed
           | 
           | Rideshare costs are much higher than they have been in years
           | past. Everyone noticed
        
         | eaglelamp wrote:
         | No one ever asks how much it costs Facebook or Uber to serve
         | requests because it is irrelevant, they set prices to maximize
         | their profit like any good monopolist. Similarly the future
         | cartel of big providers will charge their captive users
         | whatever they can get away with, not the cost of inference.
         | 
         | The current discourse around "AI", swarms of agents producing
         | mountains of inscrutable spaghetti, is a tell that this is the
         | future the big players are looking for. They want to create a
         | captive market of token tokers who have no hope of untangling
         | the mess they made when tokens were cheap without buying even
         | more at full price.
        
         | _the_inflator wrote:
         | I have similar concerns.
         | 
         | We will miss SaaS dearly. I think history is repeating just
         | with DVD and streaming - we simply bought the same movie twice.
         | 
         | AI more and more feels the same. Half a year ago Claude Opus
         | was Anthropics most expensive model - boy, using Claude Opus
         | 4.6 in the 500k version is like paying 1 dollar per minute now.
         | My once decent budgets get hit not after weeks but days (!)
         | now.
         | 
         | And I am not using agents, subagents which would only multiply
         | the costs - for what?
         | 
         | So what we arrive more and more is the same as always: low,
         | medium, luxury tier. A boring service with different quality
         | and payment structures.
         | 
         | Proof: you cannot compensate with prompt engineering anymore.
         | Month ago you fixed any model discrepancies by being more
         | clever and elaborate with your prompts etc.
         | 
         | Not anymore. There is a hidden factor now that accounts for
         | exactly that. It seems that the reliance on skills and
         | different tiers simply moves us away from prompt engineering
         | which is considered more and more jailbreaking than guidance.
         | 
         | Prompt engineering lately became so mundane, I wonder what
         | vendors were really doing by analyzing the usage data. It seems
         | like that vendors tied certain inquiries with certain outcomes
         | modeled by multistep prompting which was reduced internally to
         | certain trigger sentences to create the illusion of having
         | prompted your result while in fact you haven't.
         | 
         | All you did was asking the same result thousands of user did
         | before and the LLM took an statistical approach to deliver the
         | result.
        
         | emporas wrote:
         | Code is so low entropy that smaller and more economical models
         | will be up to the task the same as gigantic models from big
         | providers are today.
         | 
         | No worries there, the huge improvements we see today from GPT
         | and Claude, are at their heart just Reinforcement Learning
         | (CoT, chain of thought and thinking tokens are just one example
         | of many). RL is the cheapest kind of training one can perform,
         | as far as I understand. Please correct me if that's not the
         | case.
         | 
         | In the economy the invisible hand manages to produce everything
         | cheaper and better all the time, but in the digital space the
         | open source invisible hand makes everything completely free.
        
           | Towaway69 wrote:
           | > the open source invisible hand makes everything completely
           | free.
           | 
           | In this case the limitation is the compute. Very few people
           | have the compute required for AI/LLMs locally or for free
           | (comparable to the performance of Claude). So yes, there are
           | plenty of Open Source models that can be used locally but you
           | need to invest in hardware to make that happen and especially
           | if you want the quality that is available from the commercial
           | offerings.
           | 
           | Not to speak of the training of those models. It's all there
           | to make it possible to do this locally however where's the
           | hardware? AWS? Google? There are hidden costs of the Open
           | Source model in this case.
        
             | emporas wrote:
             | >In this case the limitation is the compute.
             | 
             | I agree with most of your points, but computation can be
             | transferred from a place where energy is cheap to a place
             | that is expensive. Energy for cooking cannot be transferred
             | that way.
             | 
             | See for example Amazon-Google datacenters in the Gulf
             | region. We've also got a whole continent, Australia, to put
             | as many solar panels as we desire. Australia got dark for
             | half a day, every day? Put solar panels to the opposite
             | side of the planet.
             | 
             | Energy is a concern, for cooking, transportation etc.
             | Energy for computation is not.
        
       | impulser_ wrote:
       | I think this post should be directed to every Typescript
       | developer.
       | 
       | I think a lot of this is just Typescript developers. I bet if you
       | removed them from the equation most of the problem he's writing
       | about go away. Typescript developers didn't even understand what
       | React was doing without agent, now they are just one-shot
       | prompting features, web apps, clis, desktop apps and spitting it
       | out to the world.
       | 
       | The prime example of this is literally Anthropic. They are
       | pumping out features, apps, clis and EVERY single one of them
       | release broken.
        
       | bigstrat2003 wrote:
       | I really don't get the author's conclusion here. I agree with his
       | premises: organizations using LLMs to churn out software are
       | turning out terrible quality software. But the conclusion from
       | that shouldn't be "slow down", it should be "this tool isn't
       | currently fit for use, don't use it". It feels like the author
       | starts from the premise of "I want to use AI" and is trying to
       | figure out how to make that work, rather than "I want to make
       | good software" and trying to figure out how to do that.
        
       | saadn92 wrote:
       | i like the article and what it says, but not sure why cursing was
       | necessary
        
       | atemerev wrote:
       | I expected this to be yet another anti-AI rant, but the guy is
       | actually right. You should guide the agents, and this is a full-
       | time job where you have to think hard.
        
       | sayYayToLife wrote:
       | Oh look another anti AI article.
       | 
       | Oh they even swore in the title.
       | 
       | Oh and of course it's anti-economics and is probably going to
       | hurt whoever actually follows it.
       | 
       | Three for three. It's not logical it's emotional.
        
       | andai wrote:
       | It occurred to me on my walk today that a program is not the only
       | output of programming.
       | 
       | The other, arguably far more important output, is the programmer.
       | 
       | The mental model that you, the programmer, build by writing the
       | program.
       | 
       | And -- here's the million dollar question -- can we get away with
       | removing our hands from the equation? You may know that knowledge
       | lives deeper than "thought-level" -- much of it lives in muscle
       | memory. You can't glance at a paragraph of a textbook, say "yeah
       | that makes sense" and expect to do well on the exam. You need to
       | be able to produce it.
       | 
       | (Many of you will remember the experience of having forgotten a
       | phone number, i.e. not being able to speak or write it, but
       | finding that you are able to punch it into the dialpad, because
       | the muscle memory was still there!)
       | 
       | The recent trend is to increase the output called programs, but
       | decrease the output called programmers. That doesn't exactly bode
       | well.
       | 
       | See also: _Preventing the Collapse of Civilization / Jonathan
       | Blow (Thekla, Inc)_
       | 
       | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZSRHeXYDLko
        
         | Munksgaard wrote:
         | Peter Naur had that realization back in 1985:
         | https://pages.cs.wisc.edu/~remzi/Naur.pdf
        
       | riazrizvi wrote:
       | This is what I call content based on 'garbage'. Because garbage
       | is the random collection of peoples' stuff. You can try and make
       | sense and commentary on a society through the garbage dump, but
       | it's pretty superficial. It doesn't tell you a lot about any real
       | person's motivations. So it's not a great basis for commenting on
       | real people. OPs comments are on the collection of things that
       | they happen to come across through news and social media. Sure it
       | looks like a lot is happening, but look at any one person's or
       | business's approach and it will make a lot more sense. Yes, I
       | realize people are producing content that appeals to the
       | 'garbage' mindset, but it's obviously theater. A system that
       | writes 10,000 lines of code for you a week, is headline theater.
        
       | commandlinefan wrote:
       | It's always been this way - the people that rise to the top are
       | the people who never had to deeply understand something, so they
       | can't even comprehend what that would look like or why it should
       | be important. They're trying to automate the "understanding"
       | part, with predictably disastrous consequences that those of us
       | who aren't the "rise to the top" type could see coming. Agentic
       | AI is just another symptom.
        
       | Vektorceraptor wrote:
       | Fine to read a fellow countryman on HN :) "Dere!" I have disabled
       | my coding agent by default. I first try to think, plan, code
       | something myself and only when I get stuck or the code gets
       | repetitive, only then I tell him to do the stuff. But I get what
       | you are saying, and I agree ... I am clearly pro human on this
       | debate, and the low bloat trash everywhere is annoying. I have
       | come to the conclusion - if you find docs on something, and it is
       | plain HTML - it will be probably of high quality. If you find
       | docs with a flashy, dynamic, effectful and unnecessary 100mb js
       | booboo, then you what you are about to read ...
        
       | aerhardt wrote:
       | I'm capturing videos of all the bugs I am seeing as of late. The
       | folder is filling fast. I'll write a compilation post but I'm
       | thinking a techno remix video could be fitting too.
       | 
       | If there are any common apps which are unhinged please do share
       | your experiences. LinkedIn was never great quality but it's off
       | the charts. Also catching some on Spotify.
        
       | 6510 wrote:
       | I keep returning to this thought: Assuming our abstraction
       | architecture is missing something fundamental, what is it?
       | 
       | My gut says something simple is missing that makes all of the
       | difference.
       | 
       | One thought I had was that our problem lives between all the
       | things taking something in and spitting something out. Perhaps
       | 90% of the work writing a "function" should be to formally
       | register it as taking in data type foo 1.54.32 and bar 4.5.2 then
       | returning baz 42.0 The register will then tell you all the things
       | you can make from baz 42.0 and the other data you have. A
       | comment(?) above the function has a checksum that prevents anyone
       | from changing it.
       | 
       | But perhaps the solution is something entirely different. Maybe
       | we just need a good set of opcodes and have abstractions
       | represent small groups of instructions that can be combined into
       | larger groups until you have decent higher languages. With the
       | only difference being that one can read what the abstraction
       | actually does. The compiler can figure lots of things out but it
       | wont do architecture.
        
         | marcosdumay wrote:
         | You seem to be describing a type system.
        
         | Hackbraten wrote:
         | There's more to a function than just types. It's not sufficient
         | to know that the function outputs a baz 42.0. You have to
         | understand which one. The oldest? The latest? The one that
         | matches the foo and bar input parameters?
         | 
         | I think that's the part where it remains difficult. Someone has
         | to convey clearly what the semantics and side effects of the
         | function are. Consumers have to read and understand it. Failing
         | that, you get breakage.
        
         | kubanczyk wrote:
         | > My gut says something simple is missing that makes all of the
         | difference.
         | 
         | We have too much code - languages to program machines.
         | 
         | We need a new different language now.
         | 
         | A plan.md, written in what... legalese English? Really? Am I
         | back in 1897? People committing that to vcs, sheesh...
        
       | _doctor_love wrote:
       | Great take, spot on. Very similar to Armin's post the other day
       | about things taking time. The need for speed and its ill effects
       | are being rediscovered (again).
       | 
       | Reminds me of Carson Gross' very thoughtful post on AI also:
       | https://htmx.org/essays/yes-and/
       | 
       |  _[Y]ou are going to fall into The Sorcerer's Apprentice Trap,
       | creating systems you don't understand and can't control._
        
       | leonardoe wrote:
       | Just yesterday I was discussing many of the ideas presented here
       | with a coworker. I had just walked out of a workshop led by
       | $BIGTECHCOMPANY where someone presented the following toy
       | example:
       | 
       | A service goes down. He tells the agent to debug it and fix it.
       | The agent pulls some logs from $CLOUDPROVIDER, inspects the logs,
       | produces a fix and then automatically updates a shared document
       | with the postmortem.
       | 
       | This got me thinking that it's very hard to internalize both
       | issue and solution -updating your model of the system involved-
       | _because_ there is not enough friction for you to spend time
       | dealing with the problem (coming up with hypotheses, modifying
       | the code, writing the doc). I thought about my very human
       | limitation of having to write things down in paper so that I can
       | better recall them.
       | 
       | Then I recalled something I read years ago: "Cars have brakes so
       | they can go fast."
       | 
       | Even assuming it is now feasible to produce thousands of lines of
       | quality code, there is a limitation on how much a human can
       | absorb and internalize about the changes introduced to a system.
       | This is why we will need brakes -- so we can go faster.
        
       | Hackbraten wrote:
       | > There were precursors like Aider and early Cursor, but they
       | were more assistant than agent.
       | 
       | I use Aider on my private computers and Copilot at work. Both
       | feel equally powerful when configured with a decent frontier
       | model. Are they really generations apart? What am I missing?
        
       | RodMiller wrote:
       | I don't understand why we seem to always try to make things do
       | more than what they were built for in the first place. Rather
       | than waiting for modifications, we try to make the square fit the
       | circle and then become disgusted when it doesn't work. I'm not in
       | the 'slow down to be cautious' camp. I'm more in the 'slow down
       | and find ways to work with what we actually have.' When you use
       | the tools the way they were meant to be used, life does become
       | easier, or at least mine has anyway.
        
       | jbs789 wrote:
       | > You realize you can no longer trust the codebase.
       | 
       | This cuts to the problem and is excellent framing. A rogue
       | employee can achieve the same, but probably less quickly, and
       | we've designed systems to help catch them early.
        
       | criscros wrote:
       | Just looking at the LiteLLM disaster from yesterday and so much
       | slop flowing around, I couldn't agree more.
       | 
       | It's time to slow the fuck down!
        
       | adamtaylor_13 wrote:
       | Once again I appeal: who is shipping code they don't understand?
       | Those who do so are creating the problem, _not_ the coding agent.
       | 
       | I use agents all day, every single day. But I also push back,
       | understand what was written, and ensure I read and understand
       | everything I ship.
       | 
       | Does it slow me down? Uh, yup. You bet.
       | 
       | Yes, this article literally advocates for slowing the fuck down,
       | but it also makes the coding agents out to be the problem, but
       | they're not.
        
         | kermatt wrote:
         | The problem is not the AI users who frequent this board and are
         | shipping code they don't understand. It is the moronic MBA
         | trained executives who can only think about speed, more speed,
         | more revenue for less cost. Quality is an optional expense. A
         | race where the finish line is the current fiscal quarter, to
         | hell with everything after that. The "we can fix it later"
         | Band-Aid over a tumor. Sensible engineers who look AI as
         | another (potentially powerful) tool in the toolbox "aren't
         | forward looking enough". I watched this happen in real time at
         | my previous company, where every discussion about quality was
         | interpreted as slowing down progress, and the only thing that
         | was looked on favorably was the idea of replacing developers
         | with machines - because they are "cheaper and faster". The
         | logical minds here on HN are less prone to believing in magic
         | and AI fairies, but they are often not the ones setting the
         | rules. And the number of companies being run by people with
         | critical thinking skills is getting smaller by the day.
        
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