[HN Gopher] American aviation is near collapse?
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American aviation is near collapse?
Author : JumpCrisscross
Score : 92 points
Date : 2026-03-23 20:11 UTC (2 hours ago)
(HTM) web link (www.theatlantic.com)
(TXT) w3m dump (www.theatlantic.com)
| verstandhandel wrote:
| no paywall:
| https://archive.ph/20260323153943/https://www.theatlantic.co...
| SecretDreams wrote:
| The final paragraph is maybe the most relevant. It goes well
| beyond just aviation. I'm sure we've all felt this.
|
| > The ICE deployment is a particularly extreme example of what
| the political scientist Steven M. Teles has dubbed
| "kludgeocracy," in which the government reaches for short-term,
| improvised solutions while resisting real reform. "'Clumsy but
| temporarily effective,'" Teles has written, "also describes much
| of American public policy. For any particular problem we have
| arrived at the most gerry-rigged, opaque and complicated
| response." The U.S. aviation system has been held together by
| such patches for years, but the kludges may finally be failing.
| wagwang wrote:
| Yes, that's how I would describe using immigration to address
| labor shortages
| convolvatron wrote:
| I don't think there is anything inherently wrong in using
| immigration to address labor shortages. however, not having
| an official policy, such a labor visa with clearly defined
| rules, combined with a stable population of 'illegals' that
| don't have the same labor protections, is and was not really
| a fair or sustainable situation.
| SecretDreams wrote:
| Agreed. Immigration for a labour shortage is a tale as old
| as time. Mass migration was very common post WW1/2 Europe.
| People went where there were jobs and labour shortages.
|
| Policy around this type of thing is important.
|
| My post is more about the general dysfunction and solution
| schemes we see in some governments. I think having the ICE
| example might bring about some bots and trolls, though. I
| don't care for the ICE example, it's just a part of the
| quote.
| ryandrake wrote:
| The US policy seems pretty clear: Allow companies who
| employ undocumented workers to benefit and profit from
| it, while making sure only the individual workers
| shoulder the criminal and livelihood risks.
| trimethylpurine wrote:
| I thought the policy is that you can't hire without
| documentation. Do you mean that there is a scheme in
| place, outside of the legal framework?
| ryandrake wrote:
| There's written policy and then there's policy as-
| enforced.
| wagwang wrote:
| It's inherently unfair because its used to drive down wages
| of the lower classes. Outside of highly skilled work that
| cannot be sourced from within the country that is critical
| for nation security, the moral response is to just pay the
| workers more.
| SecretDreams wrote:
| > the moral response is to just pay the workers more.
|
| While I don't disagree, and while I firmly believe in UBI
| (which is the natural conclusion to your logic), without
| a comprehensive plan in place, just "paying people more"
| will be a bit of a death spiral since that is a core
| contributor to inflation on a large scale.
| ambicapter wrote:
| Describes problem-solving in every company I've worked at as
| well.
| mikkupikku wrote:
| I'm not saying the article's thesis is wrong, much of it rings
| true to me, but we have very comprehensive data and statistics
| concerning air travel so I'm deeply unimpressed by this article
| instead hanging its argument on a hodgepodge list of incidents
| instead of digging into the data to get some proper numbers.
| postflopclarity wrote:
| > but we have very comprehensive data and statistics concerning
| air travel
|
| somehow I feel like conditions may have changed since that data
| was collected. just a hunch.
| mikkupikku wrote:
| Safety / incident data collection and publishing from the FAA
| and NTSB are basically live, you'll get incidents logged
| within days at most and preliminary reports usually within a
| few weeks. What lags the most are data analysis and
| interpretations, but major newspapers should probably be
| prepared to do their own data analysis if they're making
| grand proclaiments like the collapse of an industry...
| happytoexplain wrote:
| We have "very comprehensive data and statistics" indicating
| that US aviation is not nearing collapse? I don't understand
| what you mean.
| n_u wrote:
| I think they mean they would prefer more rigorous statistical
| analysis.
|
| "Rigor cleans the window through which intuition shines" -
| Ellis Cooper
| HPsquared wrote:
| "Collapse" isn't within the statistical distribution
| though, so you'd still to apply judgement in any case. I
| suppose it's a word with many definitions.
| KK7NIL wrote:
| > "Collapse" isn't within the statistical distribution
| though
|
| Uh? Maybe you could explain what you mean by this a bit
| more.
| HPsquared wrote:
| 1. It's not a rigorously defined term.
|
| 2. "System collapse" would be unexplored territory, so
| how would statistical analysis be able to infer when it
| occurs?
| KK7NIL wrote:
| 1. Not really. If the crash rates we're seeing under the
| Trump administration are higher than any similar length
| period in the last ~10 years, we should start to worry.
|
| 2. See above.
| KK7NIL wrote:
| He means that anyone making an argument that aviation safety
| has deteriorated should be using the stats to back it up,
| instead of anecdotal evidence.
| flakiness wrote:
| +1 but this is The Atlantic so having a reasonable
| expectation would keep you sane.
| happytoexplain wrote:
| This is a common kind of "data or nothing" fallacy. Data
| doesn't reliably capture evidence for the thesis "TSA
| agents and aviation workers are burning out and ICE is
| going to make it worse". The part that data is good for
| _hasn 't happened yet_ over a long enough timeline to
| reflect properly.
|
| If the argument is "deadly accidents are up over the past
| decade", then yes, _of course_ , we must point to data.
|
| If the argument is, "the aviation industry might be on the
| verge of a steep decline in availability and/or safety due
| to recent political/financial problems", then what do you
| mean "show the data"? That doesn't make sense. It's a
| concern based on observation, which is fine if it's not
| presented as a fact.
|
| And if it turns out that a _specific_ accident is due to
| said forces - what, we don 't address those forces, because
| "data"?
| KK7NIL wrote:
| I agree, but the article does specifically mention
| crashes as a symptom we're already seeing:
|
| > Fatal crashes, overstressed controllers, and endless
| security lines reveal a system teetering on the brink of
| failure.
|
| I have not read the entire article (paywalled), but the
| introduction sure seems to strongly imply that we're
| already seeing an unusually high rate of crashes.
| toomuchtodo wrote:
| Well, a tired, overextended air traffic controller at LaGuardia
| just caused two pilots to die last night while landing. How
| many deaths would communicate "We have likely reached system
| failure"? I presume for some, it's going to have to be a few
| airframes worth of passengers unfortunately. There is a
| shortage of air traffic controllers. Those working are being
| pushed to failure. The system as a whole is degrading. These
| are facts, based on evidence and observations.
|
| There is currently a shortage of ~3k controllers (as of this
| comment), and the time to train and put new controllers into
| service is significant. Excess retirements reduces time to
| system failure due to labor shortages. https://www.faa.gov/air-
| traffic-controller-qualifications
|
| > Entry-level applicants must complete required training
| courses and spend several months at the FAA Academy in Oklahoma
| City. Applicants are paid while in training. After graduating
| the academy, individuals are placed in locations across the
| country and must gain 2-3 years additional training, both
| classroom and on-the-job experience, before becoming a
| certified professional controller. This rigorous training
| includes close supervision and evaluation by senior controllers
| that ensures controllers are competent, professional, know
| their airspace environment and can deal with the pressures and
| high pace of the job.
|
| Controllers in training quit due to a lack of pay whenever a
| government shutdown occurs. This impairs the talent pipeline to
| improve system performance anytime a shutdown occurs.
|
| https://www.reddit.com/r/newyorkcity/comments/1s1eh14/i_mess...
|
| _US air traffic controllers start resigning as shutdown bites_
| - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45860865 - November 2025
| (365 comments)
|
| Flights to Los Angeles Airport halted due to air traffic
| controller shortage -
| https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45715771 - October 2025
| (11 comments)
|
| > The shutdown is having real consequences, as some students at
| the controller academy have already decided to abandon the
| profession because they don't want to work in a job they won't
| be paid for, Duffy said. That will only make it harder for the
| FAA to hire enough controllers to eliminate the shortage, since
| training takes years. He said that the government is only a
| week or two away from running out of money to pay students at
| the academy.
|
| Air traffic controller shortages cause widespread flight delays
| amid government shutdown - https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-
| news/air-traffic-controller-... - November 1st, 2025
|
| > "Currently nearly 50 percent of major air traffic control
| facilities are experiencing staffing shortages, and nearly 90
| percent of air traffic controllers are out at New York-area
| facilities," the FAA said in a statement posted on X on Friday
| evening.
|
| Do you feel lucky?
| ryandrake wrote:
| Note also that they deliberately choke off the hiring funnel
| before they even get applicants, and deliberately dispose of
| experienced controllers. Air traffic controller applicants
| must be under 31 years old for initial hire. The mandatory
| retirement age is 56. Although there are limited exceptions
| to both rules.
| toomuchtodo wrote:
| Air traffic controllers require a significant investment by
| the federal government, I take no issue with age limits for
| both investment (lower bound) and safety reasons (upper
| bound) (if the data says it is reasonable, I'll always
| defer to the data).
|
| I take exceptional issue with the fact that their pay is
| not considered essential. There should be no way for this
| critical infrastructure to be not considered essential. ATC
| pay should flow regardless of actions of any branch of the
| federal government, and there should be robust systems in
| place to ensure these workers are not pushed beyond
| reasonable work limits. Fix the system or break the system
| forcing a fix. If it continues to work "good enough"
| without a fix, no changes will be made.
| ryandrake wrote:
| This assumes that controllers over 56 years old are
| statistically "unsafe," presumably due to perceived
| cognitive speed and ability. So unsafe that the concern
| overrides experience, familiarity with systems, and other
| key benefits of tenure. I'd love to see that data.
| toomuchtodo wrote:
| My understanding is the 56 year old age limit is due to
| burnout and other accumulated negative risk factors from
| the profession. You have a shelf life like a professional
| athlete due to the sustained high cognitive load and
| stress of the workload. Replies open to additional
| references and citations.
|
| It would make an interesting reality TV show to have a
| group of 60-70 year olds attempt to perform a simulated 8
| hour ATC shift under "live fire" conditions.
|
| https://web.archive.org/web/20260323212332/https://www.cr
| isi...
|
| https://www.faa.gov/newsroom/media/Fatigue_Report.pdf
|
| https://news.siu.edu/2025/07/072225-siu-research-focuses-
| on-...
| irishcoffee wrote:
| An elderly woman ran into a bus stop at 70mph, killing 4
| people. Their claim was "I couldn't stop, I don't know
| what happened"
|
| They were given 200 hours community service. I think this
| happened today.
| toomuchtodo wrote:
| 78 years old at the time, now 80, sentenced to probation.
|
| https://people.com/family-four-killed-bus-stop-outrage-
| drive...
|
| https://www.sanfranciscopolice.org/news/sfpd-arrests-
| driver-...
|
| (SFPD Case #240-160-569)
| lokar wrote:
| Also, their pay comes from a fund filled by airport fees,
| not the general budget.
| nico wrote:
| Those age limits should apply to all political offices
| margalabargala wrote:
| > How many deaths would communicate "We have likely reached
| system failure"?
|
| "Failure" is really a matter of opinion rather than some
| objective tipping point. The air system is unlikely to _ever_
| actually "fail", and at worst will just become some
| arbitrary level of degraded that some people will loudly
| label "failed".
|
| There are plenty of examples around the world of countries
| with variously degraded air systems, that are far worse than
| the US status quo but still are not "failed".
|
| There's Egypt, which has labeled crashes caused by bad design
| as "someone used a bomb and blew it up" for political
| reasons: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/07/fire-
| not-bomb-...
|
| Yemen, in the midst of a perennial civil war, still runs
| commercial flights: https://www.pprune.org/terms-
| endearment/653181-yemenia-expat...
|
| Russia, with airplane parts sacntioned for years, still runs
| commercial flights.
|
| Even if the US undergoes a USSR-style sudden collapse, the
| aviation system is not going to "fail" in the sense of
| completely breaking and stopping.
| ForHackernews wrote:
| >Yemen, in the midst of a perennial civil war, still runs
| commercial flights
|
| Not any more, they don't:
|
| > The General Director of Sanaa International Airport,
| Khaled al-Shaief, said in a post on his X account that the
| strike had completely destroyed the last of the civilian
| planes that Yemenia Airways was operating from the airport.
|
| https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-says-it-
| has...
| margalabargala wrote:
| That's just from Sanaa. There are still flights to/from
| other cities in Yemen, mainly Socotra and Aden.
| marcosdumay wrote:
| I don't think you can make any statistical argument from
| accident data from a single year.
|
| Yes, there is universal data out there. But those events are so
| rare that you almost never can differentiate a normal year from
| an abnormal one.
| fny wrote:
| You absolutely can see a difference. [0] The term of art is
| "Runway Incursions", and the stats definitely show our
| airports are working at the limits of safety.
|
| [0]: https://www.buckycountry.com/2025/09/22/runway-close-
| calls-u...
| marcosdumay wrote:
| That's a 7 years graph, where category A incursions change
| by 0.7s, and total incursions are basically horizontal.
|
| What statistical conclusion are you taking from it?
| msabalau wrote:
| We have "proper numbers" for the full range of issues covered
| in the essay? From airport aesthetics to El Paso being shut
| down because of lack of coordination around anti-drone testing,
| or something?
|
| The article is not just about safety, or some other singular
| topic with clear statistics.
|
| Just because this sentiment will get some cheap upvotes from
| people who didn't engage with the article doesn't be that the
| author should have searched for keys under streetlights to
| provide a false appearance of rigor.
|
| This is an essay from the Atlantic Daily, which is responding,
| in real time, to the events of the day. It's a minor work of
| commentary, it is not supposed to be in-depth reporting, and
| it's bit odd to feel ought to have been a work of investigative
| reporting, which the Atlantic also does, seperately.
| fzeroracer wrote:
| I'm curious: If your boss emailed you and all of your coworkers
| with mass buyout offers and demanded that they quit their job
| how many do you think would take up the offer? 10%? 20%? Do you
| think it would be enough to cause significant organizational
| issues?
| ryandrake wrote:
| Just a standard warning to readers: when you use an archive.ph
| (or other archive.today) link, you risk your computer's resources
| being used to participate in a DDOS against another web site, as
| reported/discussed recently on HN[1].
|
| 1: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46624740
| davidcollantes wrote:
| Got a link to the entry?
| ryandrake wrote:
| Updated my reply with the initial story, but there have been
| followups on HN.
| samschooler wrote:
| https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Archive.today_guidan...
| Someone1234 wrote:
| A lot of core services in the US are near collapse, because
| society focuses on short-term value extraction, over long term
| success. If you look at the US's history, there was a much better
| _balance_ between the two (with the core being seen as a lever
| towards _future_ wealth).
|
| You see this in education, infrastructure, public health,
| scientific research, housing, and energy. All foundational
| systems of a society, which compound the value of everything
| else, but they aren't immediate profit centers so kick the ball
| down the road.
|
| It is an attitude problem first and foremost; and I'm not sure
| how you fix _that_.
|
| PS - This also impacts private enterprise, like corporations.
| Enshittify their current offerings for the next quarter bump but
| ruin their brand reputation/long-term viability.
| esafak wrote:
| Through the right incentives, like repealing quarterly
| reporting requirements.
| https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/us-sec-preparing-el...
| Ethee wrote:
| I'd argue more that it's an incentive alignment problem. From
| the 70s on we changed the way a lot of the incentives work so
| corporations could more freely capture markets and a lot of
| Americans were convinced that this would help enrich them as
| well. All it's done is hollow out our social services and
| further consolidate wealth in this country. Ironically the
| people most hurt by these policies are the ones who keep voting
| for them so until we hit some catalyst inflection point where
| people can map the policies being enacted onto what's happening
| in their own lives this cycle will continue. Most Americans
| seem pretty ready to accept whatever bullshit makes them feel
| good so the beatings will either continue until morale improves
| or until everyone feels beaten enough to do something. Seems
| more likely it's the former than the latter.
| fzeroracer wrote:
| I don't think it's as much an 'attitude' problem as it is a
| 'wealth' problem.
|
| The richest folk in this country have bought out every single
| media apparatus it can get its hands on and have spread decades
| of propaganda. The 'philanthropic' billionaire that spent
| wealth so that they could have a building or initiative named
| after them have vanished and gave their wealth to the methhead
| billionaires that rip up the wiring of the country to sell for
| pennies.
| nimbius wrote:
| it is a perfect storm:
|
| - deregulation of airlines in the 1980s led to rampant
| consolidation of routes and SPOF hubs that only work for revenue
| purposes and offer no real resilience in traffic planning. over-
| subscription of flights and lack of any real competition
| compounds this issue.
|
| - climate change and global warming increasingly exacerbate
| severe weather conditions that ground aircraft and incur delays
| or cancellations in an already fragile system
|
| - reagan-era policy hostile toward air traffic control labor
| unions that once checked the excesses of capital resulted in
| understaffing issues for more than two decades later. poor
| regulation of working hours, outmoded systems, and wage
| stagnation has further stressed the ATC system.
|
| - the partial government shutdown has caused massive delays and
| cancellations of flights as the artifice of security theater
| begins to break down under its own political morass.
|
| the solution is reform and regulation through policy change and
| investment. this is not possible in late stage capitalism
| (Streeck, 2016.)
| HarHarVeryFunny wrote:
| Problems related to air traffic controllers and TSA staff aren't
| a sign of "american aviation" being near collapse - they are a
| sign of american goverment being near collapse. This is critical
| national infrastructure - stop playing stupid political games
| with it.
| jorblumesea wrote:
| This is largely true for almost all US public services. Decades
| of focusing on the needs of the 1% is producing a situation where
| almost everything is under funded or poorly implemented. Critical
| infrastructure isn't a priority.
| buredoranna wrote:
| People who dedicate their lives to studying an industry, can get
| very good at being able to predict the probability of events in
| their domain.
|
| These same people are commonly off by orders of magnitude when
| predicting the magnitude of these same events.
|
| The author of this article won the "Toner Prize for Excellence in
| National Political Reporting". I'm going to infer from this, that
| he's better at political reporting, than he is at predicting the
| future of an entire industry.
|
| And if he is truly convinced of this outcome, he should be
| shorting the airlines. (I'm gonna guess he hasn't done that).
|
| (edit: syntax)
| rsync wrote:
| I am flying from SFO -> DEN in a few days and I see that Denver
| wait time is 4 minutes and, as is well known, SFO does not use
| TSA or federal security staff.
|
| Denver does, however, so I wonder why there is no wait at DEN and
| hundreds of minutes at Houston/Atlanta/JFK ?
| znkynz wrote:
| I am amazed every day that people are expected to turn up every
| day to work while being unpaid. In westminster-style parlimentary
| systems, if a government can't guarantee supply[1], they are
| sacked, and a snap election is called.
|
| [1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confidence_and_supply
|
| The paralysis of the political system in the US is either a
| feature or a bug depending on your point of view i suppose, but
| no question that it is entirely dysfunctional that a government
| can continue existing if it can't pass a budget.
| riffraff wrote:
| This is not news, there was an episode of Last Week Tonight on
| the Air Traffic Control crisis last summer[0].
|
| From memory: on the human side airports are understaffed, there
| are no young controllers in the pipeline, attrition is high, and
| the less people are available the higher the burnout rate, which
| creates a vicious cycle. On the technical side, airports are
| unmaintained, systems are obsolete and crumbling.
|
| John Oliver makes the case that most of the issue is that the FAA
| is financed through discretionary spending so e.g. it's subject
| to shut downs and can't do long term planning.
|
| [0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YeABJbvcJ_k
| FpUser wrote:
| >" A careful, iterative process of safety regulation culminated
| in a 16-year period, from 2009 to 2025, when no U.S. airline had
| a fatal crash."
|
| This is quite amazing
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