[HN Gopher] BYD is seeing a flood of new EV buyers
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BYD is seeing a flood of new EV buyers
Author : ironyman
Score : 148 points
Date : 2026-03-20 18:19 UTC (4 hours ago)
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(TXT) w3m dump (electrek.co)
| gambiting wrote:
| It also helps that BYD cars are very aggressively priced and are
| genuienly pretty good. Here in the UK they are getting pretty
| popular and it's easy to see why - legacy companies like VW and
| Audi are (for the lack of better word) taking the piss with their
| pricing and with penny pinching on literally everything.
| raesene9 wrote:
| And it's not just BYD. A couple of brands I'd literally never
| heard of till a year ago, Jaecoo and Omoda now seem to be
| getting pretty popular, saw quite a few when I was over in
| Glasgow.
| jrjeksjd8d wrote:
| I finally put my money where my mouth is and bought a PHEV. In
| the past month I've done all my errands around town exclusively
| on battery power (30-40 miles per charge) from a home L1 charger.
|
| I know EV purists will complain about the complexity of
| maintaining the gas engine, but this hits the perfect sweet spot
| for me - it doesn't weigh a million tons, it cost under 40k new,
| and the one weekend a month when I need to I can drive 300 miles
| each way on a single tank of gas.
| toomuchtodo wrote:
| The problem with PHEVs is the data shows that, at scale,
| consumers typically use them in ICE mode vs EV mode. Its great
| it works for you, and hopefully BEVs kill the need for PHEVs in
| the next few years as the technology continues to rapidly
| improve around charge rate (<10 minute 10%-80% battery state of
| charge).
|
| _Plug-in hybrids use three times more fuel than manufacturers
| claim, analysis finds_ -
| https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/feb/18/plug-in-...
| - February 18th, 2026
|
| _Smoke screen: the growing PHEV emissions scandal_ -
| https://www.transportenvironment.org/articles/smoke-screen-t...
| - October 16th, 2025
| jrjeksjd8d wrote:
| Anecdotally, some brands are better than others. I test drove
| a Kia hybrid where the gas engine was pathetically
| underpowered and it ran constantly. Even when the battery was
| full it was still burning gas.
|
| I think Toyota might be the only company with a good PHEV
| drive-train. A Prius or Rav4 PHEV can do highway speeds on
| battery. And they have a heat pump so the gas engine doesn't
| kick in unless it gets very cold.
|
| Another factor is home charging availability. The Canadian
| government gives a rebate for PHEV vehicles, but they took
| away the subsidy to install L2 chargers. It's very attractive
| right now to buy a PHEV and never charge it just to get the
| purchase rebate.
| Marsymars wrote:
| > I think Toyota might be the only company with a good PHEV
| drive-train.
|
| I've lost track a bit, but Ford has a pretty comparable
| drivetrain (e.g. in the Escape PHEV), and Toyota is sharing
| their drivetrain with Mazda (e.g. the CX-50 has same
| drivetrain as RAV4) and Subaru has Toyota-derived
| drivetrains in the new Crosstrek/Forester hybrids.
| (Mazda/Subaru don't currently have PHEVs available for
| their Toyota-sourced hybrids, but that could presumably
| easily change.)
|
| Availability of various models is wonky now due to US
| tariffs.
| tonyedgecombe wrote:
| Is this because people are buying them and not plugging them
| in?
|
| I wonder if they are just being miss-sold. They clearly make
| no sense if you don't have somewhere to plug them in.
|
| On the other hand it is clearly working for the GP.
| ericjmorey wrote:
| Who is this a problem for?
| toomuchtodo wrote:
| People taking action against climate change and CO2
| emissions. Policymakers, etc. You wouldn't want to
| subsidize PHEVs in any fashion if they weren't contributing
| to the targeted outcome of reduced CO2 emissions or fossil
| fuel consumption.
| phil21 wrote:
| PHEVs when bought by informed consumers making a
| financial decision still pencil out just fine here.
|
| It's the silly regulatory games played by manufacturers
| and regulators that cause stuff like a hybrid cayenne or
| 6000lb BMW M5 Touring to exist when neither the buyers or
| manufacturers want them to exist to begin with.
|
| These things are not remotely in the same actual category
| even though on paper they might be. They exist for
| entirely different reasons, one is market based and one
| is regulatory workarounds and gamesmanship.
| kenhwang wrote:
| I want a PHEV Cayenne. If budget wasn't a concern, that'd
| actually be my first choice for replacing my ICE SUV. The
| convenience and flexibility of a PHEV far outweighs any
| cost savings from fuel economy improvements for me. A
| Porsche was never about financial sensibility anyway.
| nico wrote:
| > Plug-in hybrids use three times more fuel than
| manufacturers claim, analysis finds > three times more fuel
| than manufacturers claim
|
| But in the article:
|
| > _Porsche hybrids consumed more fuel_ - around seven litres
| per 100km - than other PHEVs when the electric motor kicks
| in, and significantly more than non-PHEVs in combustion
| engine mode.
|
| > The lowest fuel consumption levels were found in the
| cheaper end of the PHEV market, in _Kia, Toyota, Ford and
| Renault vehicles, which often used under one litre per 100km,
| or as much as 85% less fuel than the Porsche._
|
| So it seems like they are putting all cars in the same bucket
| based on the worst performing one: Porsche. Pretty misleading
|
| Also, even if the claim applied to all cars, for a Chrysler
| Pacifica PHEV for example, instead of 82 MPGe (32 mi
| electric-only range), you'd get ~39.2 mpg (using 6 L/100 km,
| the figure from the article), which is still better than a
| Toyota Sienna hybrid at 36 mpg, and way better than a Honda
| Odyssey at 22 mpg (gas only)
| 0cf8612b2e1e wrote:
| That seems like cherry picking the offenders to invalidate
| the entire class of vehicles. ...Porsche
| hybrids consumed more fuel - around seven litres per 100km -
| than other PHEVs when the electric motor kicks in, and
| significantly more than non-PHEVs in combustion engine mode.
| The lowest fuel consumption levels were found in the cheaper
| end of the PHEV market, in Kia, Toyota, Ford and Renault
| vehicles, which often used under one litre per 100km, or as
| much as 85% less fuel than the Porsche.
|
| If I am buying a PHEV, I am not getting a Porsche or BMW.
| kenhwang wrote:
| On the other hand, if I'm in the market for a Porsche or
| BMW commuter, the cost of fuel is basically negligible and
| a PHEV for performance or convenience or comfort would
| influence my decision far more than a relatively
| insignificant amount of fuel savings.
| loudmax wrote:
| My Prius Prime has been fantastic for me. It has about a 25
| mile charge, which is just enough to get me to work and back.
|
| That range is a significant caveat. If your round trip
| commute (or one way commute, if you can charge at work) is
| outside the electric range, then you'll be relying on gas
| every day. In my situation it's worked out extremely well. I
| charge at home and only need to fill the gas tank about three
| or four times a year.
| yread wrote:
| Depends very much on the PHEV. Some are still more efficient
| even in mild hybrid mode. We have a Niro PHEV and it needs
| 4.5-5l/100km when the battery is "empty" (20% charge). We
| looked at Sportage and 3008 PHEVs and they were more like
| 7-8l/100km after the battery is empty.
| nico wrote:
| I think plug-in hybrids are the perfect combo. You get amazing
| flexibility and if you mostly drive locally, then 80-90% you
| are probably purely driving electric
|
| When we bought are last car, I would've bought one of those if
| there had been a Toyota or Honda minivan. We ended up going for
| a regular hybrid instead. Hopefully this category gets adopted
| by more car makers
| macintux wrote:
| Extra weight, extra drivetrain complexity, and many owners
| don't actually charge their hybrids so they're getting worse
| mileage.
|
| Tradeoffs everywhere, so "perfect" is very much not the word
| I'd apply.
| nico wrote:
| Well, if you want to be pedantic, sure, nothing is perfect.
| You can always find fault with anything. Like you say,
| there are always tradeoffs
|
| It all depends on what you want the car for and how you use
| it. It will also depend on the very specific car and
| manufacturer. In my case, even though I love the concept of
| PHEV, I'd still wouldn't buy a Chrysler, so, to your point,
| I prefer to get a different brand that is not a PHEV, than
| get that specific make
| bigfatkitten wrote:
| It's a better tradeoff than maintaining two entirely
| separate vehicles, which is what I do because no suitable
| EV for all my needs exists yet.
| bmicraft wrote:
| The main problem with PHEV is, that's it's comparably small
| battery will age very poorly because it will both: a) do more
| charge/discharge cycles per distance driven, and b) get
| charged and discharged closer to 0 & 100% making the battery
| age even faster.
| nomel wrote:
| i bought a small ev for commuting/around town (100 mile range
| in good conditions), and a large gas vehicle for everything
| else. if you have room, this appears to be the true sweet spot.
| Marsymars wrote:
| Only the (a?) sweet spot if you'd otherwise already be a two-
| car household.
|
| (And the larger gas vehicle can still be a non-plug-in
| hybrid.)
| roryobrien wrote:
| PHEV is the absolute way to go. Next car is 100% going to be
| this. I rented two EV's and had serious stress about charging
| in locations I wasn't familiar with. All the different plug
| types and speeds was also not helpful. PHEV is a great gateway
| into full EV.
| epistasis wrote:
| Rental cars as EVs are pretty much the worst possible case.
| We are at the transition where we don't have chargers
| everywhere, but we will soon because chargers are way cheaper
| than a gas station. Also rentals tend to be driven for longer
| trips, and for uncertain distances! And on top of it all
| rental companies tend to not give people any choice,
| education, or help with the EV.
|
| I wouldn't bother with a PHEV for a vehicle I buy as I'm
| always going to buy EVs from now on, but for rentals a PHEV
| makes a lot of sense.
| dangus wrote:
| I love renting EVs now, when they're available.
|
| They're always the cheapest option and they're often nicer
| than the cheapest gas ICE options. I'd rather be in a
| Genesis G80 Electrified than a Camry.
|
| I just got a $100 charger for my relatives garage, which
| almost immediately paid for itself.
|
| (Though I'll admit, I'm lucky that they installed a 220v
| outlet decades ago for appliances in their garage).
| epistasis wrote:
| That's good to hear! We had some visitors, and we went on
| a trip to the mountains, and the nearest Level 2+ charger
| was some 70 miles away. It was a bit stressful for them,
| as they had never used an EV before, and the Electrify
| America chargers at the time tended to be either broken
| or in use. It was a major pain and stress point.
|
| This will all get easier as the chargers become more
| prevalent.
| soco wrote:
| I'm in Western Europe and while there are chargers
| everywhere, you need hundred apps to register to charge,
| some slots are broken (empty yet show busy), some refuse to
| charge my PHEV... we're not there yet.
| crote wrote:
| Interesting. I occasionally rent EVs in Western Europe,
| and they just come with a single RFID card which seems to
| be accepted by _all_ charging providers.
| pingou wrote:
| You can use the chargemap card which is virtually
| accepted everywhere but they add their own fees which can
| be ridiculous, sometimes it can even double the price of
| electricity.
| dangus wrote:
| I totally understand the learning curve aspect, but I think
| if you owned one that stress would fade away pretty quickly.
|
| I will first point out that for DC fast charging, there are
| only two connectors to think about. It is not really more
| complicated than that. It's a learning curve, but not much
| different than learning the difference between gasoline,
| diesel, and which octane to put in your car.
|
| You would have your charging station at your house. That
| removes a whole lot of the burden.
|
| Then, there's just the sheer size of the expansion and
| reliability in charging networks over the past year or two.
| Where I live, there is no direction where I can travel on an
| interstate where there aren't chargers on premier networks at
| normal rest stops/truck stops (rather than in odd parking
| lots behind Walmarts or what have you).
|
| You've also got newer non-Tesla EVs that have NACS
| compatibility or NACS built-in, doubling the size of the
| charging network for those vehicles.
|
| You wouldn't have the problem of lacking the right adapter if
| you owned the car.
|
| With long trips, we are talking about multiple hours of
| driving before needing to charge, so I think we need to
| rethink the amount of burden it really is to plan your route
| ahead of time. It's gotta be less of a burden than getting
| multiple oil changes per year or visiting a gas station every
| week or two to cover your daily commuting.
|
| I think the only people for whom EVs don't work are people
| who take long road trips with a frequency that far exceeds
| the national average (e.g like a monthly 600+ mile trip).
| Marsymars wrote:
| > I don't really understand why it's such a burden to plan
| the route ahead of time. It's gotta be less of a burden
| than getting multiple oil changes per year or visiting a
| gas station every week or two for your typical commuting.
|
| Well it depends on your specific configuration/workflow.
|
| I just get oil changes when I have my vehicle in for
| seasonal tires changes anyway - I drop it off in the
| morning on my way to my office and pick it up after work.
| The experience would be identical with an EV.
| dangus wrote:
| How often do you stop at the gas station to fill up for
| regular commuting?
|
| With an EV, it's 0, unless you are doing a long road
| trip.
| Pxtl wrote:
| I drive a PHEV with an old AC J1772 port on it.
|
| Now that I'm comfy with "oh, install yet-another charging
| phone app" (a handful offer a website too) and the prevalence
| and backwards-compatibility of modern DC chargers and
| learning how to check which standards are supported by where,
| I'd be comfy with a full-EV, but I could understand being
| intimidated by that without the practice of driving a PHEV.
|
| But to be blunt: It's a hump you'd get over, as long as you
| had access to an overnight charger of any kind (even just
| 110V mains) at home.
|
| The port war is basically over here in North America -
| CHADEMO and CCS2 aren't a thing here and any charge station
| that offers those is just an old station that was hedging
| their bets. The only real standards you'll see are
|
| - J1772 (the old AC power system),
|
| - CCS1 (DC upgrade to J1772, backwards-compatible with J1772
| chargers, looks like a J1772 with extra bits on the bottom)
|
| - NACS (the Tesla port).
|
| And unless you've got an old J1772 AC-powered car (like my
| Prius Prime), you can get adapters. So basically if you get a
| CCS1 car you need 1 adapter, and if you get a NACS car you
| need 2 (both CCS1 and J1772) if you want to be able to charge
| _literally anywhere_. The only wrinkle then is how fast you
| need to charge, and AFAIK NACS standard has more options for
| crazy-fast charging.
| wcfields wrote:
| If anyone from Ford reads HN: What's keeping me from a Ford
| Maverick truck is waiting for the PHEV version.
| nxm wrote:
| PHEV are too expensive due to a large battery and ICE
| onboard. Mild hybrid is the way to go
| jrjeksjd8d wrote:
| Maybe in a vacuum, but thanks to government incentives it
| was cheaper to get a PHEV and most of my trips are covered
| by home charging.
| haunter wrote:
| The new Prius with the solar charging roof is my dream car.
| Alas 50,000EUR T_T
| triceratops wrote:
| Why not have 2 $20k used cars instead? One EV and one ICE.
| bluGill wrote:
| You have to insure each, pay license and taxes... most also
| need a parking spot.
| triceratops wrote:
| A car's ownership costs are dominated by fuel and
| depreciation (which is a proxy for repairs and maintenance
| - brake pads, oil changes etc). You're probably going to
| come out ahead of the fixed costs of licensing, insurance,
| and registration on gasoline savings alone.
|
| The parking spot may or may not be an issue. If you can
| charge an EV at home, you likely have a garage or driveway.
| If not, then sure this doesn't apply.
|
| The bonus: with 2 vehicles you can use exactly as much car
| as needed for each trip.
|
| The EV can be a smallish hatchback or sedan with low-to-
| medium range. You aren't going too far and won't carry much
| stuff. It's enough for 90% of your miles driven.
|
| The ICE can be a minivan or SUV, since you'll likely need
| more space for road trips. You aren't pointlessly driving
| that hulking PHEV SUV on milk runs.
| Marsymars wrote:
| > A car's ownership costs are dominated by fuel and
| depreciation. You're probably going to come out ahead of
| those fixed costs on gasoline savings alone.
|
| Depends how much you drive. If you don't drive much to
| start, and then having two vehicles cuts that in half,
| your effectively-fixed costs go up - e.g. you start
| having to replace your tires because the rubber is
| getting too old long before the tread wears out,
| insurance doesn't scale down linearly for low-mileage
| drivers, etc.
| phil21 wrote:
| Depreciation, sure. If you're buying new of course.
|
| Fuel is very much use dependent. I drive very little so
| having one large nicer (3 years old off a lease return)
| made the most sense to me when I had to watch the bottom
| line. Both financially and quality of life.
|
| I filled up the tank on that thing once every 2-3mo at
| most. Tires cost more due to simply aging out and the
| rubber compounds not being as spry as they once were.
| Other than that it was an oil change once a year. It was
| a Honda so I think the only repair work I did was a $20
| relay that failed I was able to self diagnose, over the
| 13 years I owned it.
|
| Yeah that's the extreme end - but there is a lot of
| middle ground before you get into it being cheaper to
| have a second vehicle. I do now, but that's due to owning
| a ridiculous dream weekend car. Maintaining two cars,
| insuring them, dealing with less space in the garage for
| other stuff, etc. really is a giant expensive hassle even
| if both were cheap(ish) used vehicles.
|
| The math switches once you get to "beater" level cars -
| but I am far removed from the time of my life where I
| want to deal with actual car repairs due to things
| breaking unexpectedly. The used car market also isn't
| like it was when I was 22 and broke either. Deals are
| much harder to come by. I value my time and mental energy
| far more these days as well.
|
| Different strokes for different folks!
|
| If I went back to a single car I'd likely be looking at a
| PHEV Lexus or similar class vehicle for a bit of luxury
| plus reliability. I still rarely drive though so it's a
| silly expense either way.
| seanmcdirmid wrote:
| > A car's ownership costs are dominated by fuel and
| depreciation (which is a proxy for repairs and
| maintenance - brake pads, oil changes etc).
|
| Only in the USA. In the rest of the world, taxes and
| parking fees are also significant. Americans are really
| spoiled when it comes to low car ownership costs.
| bluGill wrote:
| it depends, but for the average driver who in the US is
| doing about 14000 miles per year the savings will be less
| than $200/month. that barely covers insurance and taxes
| leaving little for the rest.
| triceratops wrote:
| Where are you paying $200/month for insurance and
| registration? For a $20k car?
| HeyLaughingBoy wrote:
| Is that a lot? I pay less than that for full coverage on
| two cars and liability only on one.
| 01100011 wrote:
| Please don't downvote a perfectly valid question. This isn't
| reddit. If you think op is wrong, leave a reply or move on.
| jrjeksjd8d wrote:
| I don't have the physical space for 2 cars. In terms of
| comfort and reliability I can't imagine 2 20k cars would have
| the same quality of life that my 1 new car has (less than
| 40k). I traded up from a ~20k gas SUV that was extremely
| expensive to maintain.
| Magi604 wrote:
| Happy PHEV owner here. I have a few quibbles with my particular
| model, but imo this is currently the way to go. It's the best
| of both worlds.
| louwrentius wrote:
| I still feel that PHEVs combine the worst parts of both worlds.
|
| The battery of a PHEV is relatively small and will be strained
| much more (as compared to an EV), especially if you drive a lot
| in EV modus. PHEV batteries tend to wear out faster for this
| reason. This drives up cost of ownership.
|
| Then you still have the maintenance / cost of the ICE
| drivetrain. It does not make sense to me.
|
| I feel that a lot of people buy vehicles because of the long-
| distance trips they make a few times a year. Long-distance
| trips are not a big deal anymore with the current status of the
| fast-charging stations.
|
| Yes you may still do 600 miles on a single tank of gas with a
| ICE or PHEV, but you have to stop and rest, use the bathroom,
| drink something. Everytime you stop is a charging opportunity.
|
| Anno 2026 there is so much choice for 'pure' EVs for the budget
| you stated, especially second-hand.
|
| And then you may be able to charge at home, with solar, it's a
| no-brainer to me. This is possible with an PHEV too, but well,
| we discussed that here.
| fpoling wrote:
| Toyota hybrids are very reliable and probably the reason taxi
| drivers around Europe prefer those. And with the proper PHEV
| the wear is even less.
| louwrentius wrote:
| I see a ton of Tesla taxis in NL. I'm not buying the hybrid
| story.
| Marsymars wrote:
| > The battery of a PHEV is relatively small and will be
| strained much more (as compared to an EV), especially if you
| drive a lot in EV modus. PHEV batteries tend to wear out
| faster for this reason. This drives up cost of ownership.
|
| With appropriate battery management, this doesn't really
| drive up the cost, it just moves the depreciation curve
| around.
|
| Think of it from the other side - with an EV, you're paying
| up front for a bunch of battery value in a consumable good
| that you'll never depreciate.
| WarmWash wrote:
| Toyota did a study and found that pretty much no one who
| owns a PHEV ever plugs it in. I know you qualified with
| with "proper battery management", but the reality is most
| people will be lazy and cannot be bothered.
| slaw wrote:
| You start with wrong assumption. Compare PHEV with 70kWh
| battery + ICE vs the same model as BEV with 100kWh battery.
| Pxtl wrote:
| Imho PHEVs were the right tool for the job before 2020 or so.
| The cost of batteries was so high and the lack of
| standardization on charging tech was too tedious. I bought a
| Prius Prime in 2019 and I absolutely regretted not getting a
| PHEV sooner. Governments should've been pushing those harder.
|
| But the day of the PHEV has come and gone. The massive price
| gap between PHEV and BEV is now negligible, and the charging
| experience is so much better now.
| 01100011 wrote:
| PHEV would be my choice but I WFH and my wife doesn't work so
| we just don't drive enough for a non-IC car to make sense. Gas
| would need to be like $20/gallon for it to pay off.
| doug_durham wrote:
| I own both a PHEV and EV. I really don't like driving the PHEV
| because the performance goes to crap at 40 miles when the gas
| motor kicks in. Once you are in ICE mode you are driving a loud
| poorly performing car. In rural areas I think PHEVs are fine.
| drcongo wrote:
| That sounds like you just bought a really poor choice of
| PHEV. I've got a PHEV DS 7 and the performance is essentially
| identical on ICE or EV. Combined with the sound proofing,
| I've never even noticed the car switch between the two modes.
| GMoromisato wrote:
| We have two EVs, but I have no problem with PHEVs. They are
| another case where theory (too much complexity) does not match
| practice (actually, reliability is fine).
| jrjeksjd8d wrote:
| To summarize replies:
|
| - I don't want to own 2 cars. Over 10 years I'm skeptical that
| the TCO would be less for 2 used cars than 1 new Toyota.
|
| - With incentives the PHEV was less expensive than a mild
| hybrid, and I do use L1 charging to get the full range every
| night.
|
| - I guess I could have bought a used EV and put in an L2
| charger. New EVs were out of my price range. There's a lot more
| research involved in buying a new EV and I didn't want to go
| that deep to avoid a lemon.
| WarmWash wrote:
| I'll throw my hat in the ring of rage:
|
| PHEVs are (largely) for consumers who don't understand how EVs
| work (but think they do) and are too scared of having to sit in
| their car and charge for an hour anytime they leave the town
| perimeter.
|
| In reality with most EVs, you can drive 500 miles with one 30
| minute charge. That's 7 hours of driving at 65mph, and one 30
| minute charge. I know everyone claims to be a psychopath driver
| who never stops on a road trip for more than 5 minutes every 7
| hours when they learn this, but the reality is you don't even
| notice the charging stop. Unlike gas pumps, it's the norm to
| leave your car on the charger while you go do something else
| (eat, sight see, shop, w/e).
|
| It's only really trips that are >500 miles where this starts to
| become apparent. Or on trips through remote areas. Or having no
| idea how EVs work, driving till you're almost empty, then
| deciding it's time to get off the highway and find a charger.
|
| The consumer segment that actually needs PHEVs is incredibly
| small, but the segment that thinks they need them is huge,
| hence the market.
| jamie_ca wrote:
| > with most EVs, you can drive 500 miles with one 30 minute
| charge
|
| I'm just gonna call bullshit on that one. https://ev-
| database.org/cheatsheet/range-electric-car looks like it's
| got a bunch of recent vehicles, and pegs average range at
| 390km or 242mi. The _highest_ range there is 720km or 450mi,
| and a 300KW charge runs it 10-80% (+500km range, not miles)
| in a half hour.
|
| If you _don't_ have the absolute best range + infrastructure
| to support the charge at that rate: I've got a 2020 Kia Soul
| w/ 64kWh battery and lines up with the 390km range rating.
| Did a road trip last year. My charger caps out at 73kW or so
| on a DC charge, and a charge at that rate (40%-80%) gave me
| ~150km in a half hour. 10-80% is ~220-250km and takes an
| hour.
|
| Now, I did the road trip with two kids and a dog, so an
| hour's potty/walk break every 2-2.5h driving worked out for
| us, but I don't think that's entirely generalizable. I do
| also agree that unless we're road-tripping, it's a nonissue.
| We put a level 2 charger in the garage, and plug in overnight
| once or twice a week and no range stress at all.
| triceratops wrote:
| I think they assumed a Tesla Model 3 or Hyundai Ioniq that
| has 300 miles of range. You leave home with 80% or 100%
| charge. Stop at a supercharger for a half hour when you
| have 50 miles left, which will get you back up to 80%
| battery.
| jamie_ca wrote:
| Call it a midrange Model 3 (RWD), ~275mi range from full,
| drive 250mi, 25 mins to 220mi range again?
|
| OK that roughly lines up - the Model Y doesn't quite get
| there (on expected range) and it's apparently 40% of the
| market, but it's also pretty close.
| vladgur wrote:
| I did a cost per 1000 miles comparison of Camry hybrid vs Tesla
| model y back in 2023 when i was shopping for a new car. I just
| pulled up that spreadsheet and updated my area gas prices($5.50
| per gallon) and my area off-peak energy costs ($0.50 per kwh).
|
| Both cost $133 to drive 1000 miles(including ammortized oil
| changes for camry). Camry was $15000 cheaper AND has a 500 mile
| range.
|
| Even at todays war-time gas prices, the EVs are not always the
| financially sound choice thanks to runaway costs of electricity
| in my stage.
| ZeroGravitas wrote:
| BYD also makes better PHEVs than are available in the US, EREVs
| as they are known in China.
|
| Basically EV first with a generator.
| decimalenough wrote:
| > _While Asia, particularly Southeast Asian countries like
| Thailand and the Philippines, has higher EV adoption rates than
| those of the US and Europe, at around 40%, they are still hit
| hard by rising oil prices._
|
| That figure is highly misleading. Yes, 48% of _new vehicle sales_
| in Thailand are now EVs, but their share of _total vehicles on
| the road_ is much smaller: I can 't find recent figures, but
| it'll be far less than 10%. (Share of new sales was under 20%
| until late last year.)
|
| The Philippines is even further behind, with share of new sales
| under 10%.
|
| Of course total fleet composition will eventually converge on new
| sales, but given that the lifespans of cars are measured in
| decades, it takes longer than you'd think.
| embedding-shape wrote:
| To be fair, they do explicitly say "higher EV adoption rates",
| not "people who already have EV".
| toomuchtodo wrote:
| New sales are the leading indicator to total fleet composition
| turnover. As oil prices stay high into the future, and monthly
| sales of EVs continues to increase, it speeds fleet turnover
| from combustion to EVs.
|
| _Ember Energy: ASEAN emerges as a new leader in global EV
| adoption_ - https://ember-energy.org/latest-updates/asean-
| emerges-as-a-n... - December 16th, 2025
|
| You can see how this looks over a longer term using Norway's
| data as they transitioned to ~100% EV sales:
| https://robbieandrew.github.io/EV/
| decimalenough wrote:
| So much data, but they're missing the total share of EVs on
| the road, and on _that_ figure Norway is still only a third
| of the way to 100%:
|
| https://ourworldindata.org/data-insights/one-third-of-
| cars-o...
|
| And Norway is a "best case" as a wealthy country where people
| turn over their cars pretty quickly. The Philippines is at
| the opposite end of the spectrum.
| toomuchtodo wrote:
| Certainly, it's going to take time, but peak global
| combustion vehicle sales are long behind us (2017). Global
| fleet will turn over to EVs eventually, we're just arguing
| time horizon based on how quickly EV deployment ramps and
| combustion sales are destroyed. Combustion vehicle sales
| will only keep declining. Developing countries will soak up
| cheap EVs made by China, they will skip over combustion
| vehicles with higher total cost of ownership. Combustion
| vehicles will age out eventually as EV sales continue to
| increase.
|
| > Globally, over 1-in-5 (22%) of new cars sold were
| electric in 2024. This share was 92% in Norway, and in
| China, it was almost 50%.
|
| In 2025, it was 1-in-4 (25%). What will expensive oil do?
| It will pull these trajectories more vertical.
|
| _Global oil price stuck in triple digits. Goldman Sachs
| says it may stay there for years_ -
| https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/20/energy/oil-gas-prices-intl-
| hn... - March 20th, 2026
|
| _Our World In Data: Tracking global data on electric
| vehicles_ - https://ourworldindata.org/electric-car-sales
|
| _Ember Energy: China Cleantech Exports Data Explorer_ -
| https://ember-energy.org/data/china-cleantech-exports-
| data-e...
|
| _The World Hit 'Peak' Gas-Powered Vehicle Sales -- in
| 2017_ -
| https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-30/world-
| hit... | https://archive.today/p2hl1 - January 30th, 2024
|
| _Electric Cars Pass a Crucial Tipping Point in 23
| Countries_ - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-0
| 8-28/electric-... | https://archive.today/e8XSt - August
| 27th, 2023
| linkregister wrote:
| It's not rational to expect owners to discard equipment
| long before the end of its service life, especially when
| the operational costs are not an order of magnitude lower.
|
| Without time travel or CCCP circa 1955 property controls, a
| 100% EV ownership benchmark is unreasonable.
| fpoling wrote:
| Average age of cars in Norway is higher than in many other
| countries due to high taxes on cars.
|
| And then in China number of cars per capita is much less
| then in West. As more and more people there can afford a
| car and that car will be EV, transitioning to mostly EV
| should happen faster than in Norway.
| mitthrowaway2 wrote:
| For a car manufacturer, aren't new sales what matters? BYD
| isn't selling used cars.
| rtkwe wrote:
| It's funny to see these gas prices spike as companies are
| announcing they're killing their EV models here in the US.
| emestifs wrote:
| I thought the same thing. Incredibly short term thinking at the
| corporate and government level to flip flop. Meanwhile Norway
| is now 97% EV sales and covered in chargers north to south. Not
| to mention China's fierce EV market domestically.
| nxm wrote:
| Norway is an exceptionally rich country due to oil with huge
| incentives towards EVs. Don't extrapolate
| WarmWash wrote:
| It also has the population on the order of Queens and
| Brooklyn put together. Singapore, the micro island city
| state, has a larger population.
| tlogan wrote:
| The problem with many of these EVs is that they were way too
| expensive. The main reason companies were producing them is due
| to regulatory requirements and how emissions standards are
| calculated, not necessarily because wanted to sell these EVs.
|
| What we really need are incentives for companies to build more
| affordable EVs. California could play a role here, but given
| the strong opinions we have about Elon Musk, nothing will be
| done.
| decimalenough wrote:
| China and increasingly India are building very affordable
| EVs. You can get this guy for $7700, or full-featured models
| from $10,000:
|
| https://driveauthority.com/cheapest-ev-car-in-china/
|
| All you _really_ need is a political snap of the fingers to
| remove tariffs, so they can start selling them in the US.
|
| Of course, there is absolutely no way this will happen with
| the current administration.
| leosanchez wrote:
| Yeah seeing more and more 2W, 3W and 4W in India along with
| rooftop solar which government subsidizes.
|
| Mind you I am living in a Tier 4 "city".
| arzig wrote:
| All the EV tariffs are staying place past the end of the
| Trump administration because protectionism is now
| bipartisan.
| seanmcdirmid wrote:
| > All the EV tariffs are staying place past the end of
| the Trump administration because protectionism is now
| bipartisan.
|
| Anything Trump supported will continue to be seen as hot
| garbage after he is removed from office. There is no
| appetite for protectionism when it has hurt rather than
| benefitted the American economy.
| Pxtl wrote:
| That heavily depends on the Dem primaries. I think after
| the unpopularity of Biden and the 2024 loss by Harris
| there might be more appetite to rock the boat instead of
| getting another establishment caretaker.
|
| However, the more radical wing of Democrats still have
| some anti-globalism in them (eg Bernie). But still, imho:
| Unusual outcomes are on the table for Democratic party
| leadership at this point.
| tlogan wrote:
| I 100% understand that nothing will be done on the federal
| level. But california is big enough to make things moving
| without any federal level law.
|
| For example, what about:
|
| - no sales taxes on new EV sales
|
| - free registration for 5 years
|
| - free bridge tolls for 5 years
|
| That might convince some of these companies to start making
| EVs again.
| nxm wrote:
| They'll make up the lost revenue by additional taxes on
| the common people?
| tlogan wrote:
| I do not know. It is all about priorities.
|
| Raise taxes on gas? Put extra taxes on sell ICE vehicles?
| Increase registration fees for ICE vehicles? (In short -
| ICE sales will paying for money lost via EV sales)
|
| I'm not saying it will be easy. I'm saying that if we
| really want EVs to succeed we can do it.
| kccqzy wrote:
| No the regulatory requirements and emission standards have
| nothing to do with affordability. The only reason is just
| economies of scale. In fact regulatory requirements help
| because companies like Tesla historically sold their emission
| credits to other carmakers to make money.
| jimbokun wrote:
| Or just allow Chinese EVs without tariffs.
|
| Would be incredible for US auto consumers.
|
| But might put some of our automakers out of business.
| tlogan wrote:
| What about no sales taxes on EV purchases (full sales tax
| exemption) in California?
| throwaway-11-1 wrote:
| I don't care about US brands, let Xiaomi and BYD run those
| factories. Just let me have a YU-7 for the love of god!
| WarmWash wrote:
| There is no world in which this would happen, because the
| auto industry holds up so much secondary and tertiary
| domestic manufacturing (most of which use China at the
| bottom anyway).
| sam345 wrote:
| Confused about this comment. Are you talking about government
| subsidies and tax incentives? Haven't companies and consumers
| already been given these incentives? Now that they're drawing
| down, it's obvious there's a limited market. What needs to
| happen is real economic demands need to make the market not
| created ones. Then prices will come down and efficiencies
| will increase .
| rilindo wrote:
| It is worse than that. Companies are killing their EV models
| _and_ discontinuing
| [sedans](https://www.autoblog.com/features/these-automakers-no-
| longer...) in favor of trucks and SUVs.
| TremendousJudge wrote:
| They've been on this path for a while now. The reckoning has
| to come at some point right?
| Pxtl wrote:
| At this point I don't see a solution to the arms-race of
| autobesity besides regulation. Cars that represent a larger
| threat to other road users need to have that externality
| internalized onto the driver.
|
| Because otherwise we just get things like the Hummer EV
| which is literally _over 9000_ lbs.
| PedroBatista wrote:
| I'm sorry to be that guy, but can we reintroduce a good dose of
| skepticism in our mental diets?
|
| BYD was already selling a ton of cars when the oil prices were
| "low", of course there's some very creative accounting business
| moves you would expect from a Chinese company like BYD (
| companies from other places have their own peculiarities too ).
|
| Gas prices have been "sky high" for a week and people who are
| under financial stress just decided to ditch their cars and buy a
| brand new BYD? Are we children now? listening bedtime stories?
|
| The concept of electric vehicle is technically superior to
| support the context and lifestyle a large majority of people
| have. It will "win" over time. There is no need to this bullshit
| simplistic feel-good articles.
|
| Btw, the the market movements of people trying to get rid of
| their gas-guzzling SUVs when prices are high and trade them for a
| smaller and more economical car ( what they should have been
| doing in the first place.. ) already happened in the past many
| times, there is no news here. But these movements don't happen in
| a time span of a week or a couple weeks.
|
| Sorry for the rant, but between AI's "Absolutely, you're entirely
| right!" and these bullshit articles.. I don't know.
|
| To be clear: EV's will "win" and BYD has been selling a ton of
| cars because they are cheap and not terrible right out of the
| gate, also people don't have much disposable income.
| Tiktaalik wrote:
| > Gas prices have been "sky high" for a week and people who are
| under financial stress just decided to ditch their cars and buy
| a brand new BYD? Are we children now? listening bedtime
| stories?
|
| The situation is something that makes people pause for a
| second.
|
| Like everyone knows that EVs are the future, but when gas is
| fine, status quo fine, that future can be a fuzzy thing in the
| distance and it's really easy to shut off your brain, live in
| the present, and not really do any thinking and just go through
| the motions.
|
| A sudden oil shock puts the issue of EVs on the front burner
| and gives people reason to think about things for a moment.
| bdcravens wrote:
| Very true. It's not like EV owners were feeling regret when gas
| hit the (mythical ) $2/gallon. Honestly, while it's fun to know
| I've "saved" $5k or so in gas costs during the 4 years I've
| owned my EV, if saving money was my only goal, I would have
| paid cash for a slightly used efficient four cylinder gas car.
| mikestew wrote:
| _It 's not like EV owners were feeling regret when gas hit
| the (mythical ) $2/gallon._
|
| Gas could be free, and I'd still have no regrets. Because an
| EV is simply the better vehicle. And I think after over a
| decade of mass-produced EVs that maybe it's time to get away
| from "saves on gas" or "good for the environment", and maybe
| start marketing as "full every time you pull out of the
| garage", or something. Kind of like Mazda's old commercials
| for their Wankel engine cars: "piston engine goes 'boing',
| but the Mazda goes 'hmmmmm'".
|
| https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oHzeGEHWMjo
| macintux wrote:
| I'd be more interested in EVs if they didn't come with
| significant privacy and complexity trade-offs.
|
| I don't want a door handle that can't open in an emergency.
| I don't want my vehicle constantly phoning home to the
| mothership (sadly I have to deal with that today, I really
| need to go disable that functionality). I certainly don't
| want a touchscreen through which all controls are routed.
|
| I have a 20-year-old Jeep with significant mechanical
| problems; I should really convert it to a BEV.
| mikestew wrote:
| _I 'd be more interested in EVs if they didn't come with
| significant privacy and complexity trade-offs._
|
| You're going to be really disappointed when you go to
| look at new ICE vehicles. This "EVs are a privacy
| nightmare!" trope needs to die, all cars do that now.
|
| _I don 't want a door handle that can't open in an
| emergency._
|
| Only one car manufacturer to my knowledge has that
| problem, just don't buy one of those. Again, nothing to
| do with electric cars.
|
| _I certainly don 't want a touchscreen through which all
| controls are routed._
|
| So far, other than the poorly-designed door handles of
| one manufacturer, nothing you've listed is unique to EVs.
| All you've done is describe "most new cars".
| macintux wrote:
| I understand modern vehicles are like that, hence my
| complaint about my current one.
|
| But, by definition, most EVs are modern. That's not true
| of ICE vehicles, hence the tradeoffs.
| mikestew wrote:
| Fair enough, point taken.
| nico wrote:
| > Gas prices have been "sky high" for a week and people who are
| under financial stress just decided to ditch their cars and buy
| a brand new BYD? Are we children now? listening bedtime
| stories?
|
| Have you actually seen the news and the situation? Gas prices
| will continue to rise and will stay high for at least 3-5
| years, given the damaged infrastructure and how long it will
| take to rebuild. And that's if nothing else happens, so the
| situation could get a lot worse
|
| This means 2 things: 1) it might be a better alternative to
| drive electric (depends on the numbers), and 2) if enough
| people start preferring EVs, prices for EVs might spike in the
| next 1-2 years. So buying now could be a good move depending on
| how things turn out
| caminante wrote:
| _> Have you actually seen the news and the situation?_
|
| Have you seen what's happened to wholesale power market
| prices? Have you seen that BYD's care sales in 2026 are down
| y/y?
|
| Trusting anecdotal hype from BYD salesmen and a renewables
| blog isn't sensible.
| nico wrote:
| I wasn't talking about BYD in particular, nor referencing
| any numbers or quotes from the blog. I was responding to
| the above comment mocking/doubting people's decisions about
| EV purchases and showing how that contrasts with the
| current macro situation
|
| Feel free to expand on the wholesale power market prices
| you are referring to though, not sure what your take is
| caminante wrote:
| _> I wasn 't talking about BYD in particular, _
|
| You quoted the parent's mention of BYD.
| mbgerring wrote:
| Wholesale power market prices are responding to shocks in
| the natural gas market from two wars that disrupted those
| supply chains. Solar and batteries have been and will
| continue to he the cheapest source of power, and globally,
| deployment is accelerating.
|
| Not so much in the US, where our braindead political
| culture is intent on ignoring the obvious economic
| advantage of renewables, but definitely everywhere else in
| the world.
| caminante wrote:
| _> Solar and batteries have been and will continue to he
| the cheapest source of power, and globally, deployment is
| accelerating._
|
| I think storage is great and solar has a place, but this
| is not true unless you discard reliability and other
| features, which should be in the price. Solar plus
| storage for baseload power matching requires huge
| overbuilds. Even in the last few years, before the AI
| hype, installed utility scale renewables costs went up in
| the US. It's not just the hardware or national politics.
|
| And if you can't get renewables interconnected in a
| couple years, then the install rate won't lower the
| carbon of the existing grid mix charging your car.
| fpoling wrote:
| Russia has been recovering from Ukrainian drone strikes again
| oil industries within months. And Ukraine inflicted much
| serious damage than Iran on Gulf states.
|
| Drones with 100-150kg just not capable of inflicting hard to
| recover damage. What they are good is striking repeatedly.
| But judging by numbers Iran is not capable any longer of
| sustained stacks with hundreds of drones per day.
| nico wrote:
| Very interesting take. Not sure about the comparisons
| though: 1) Russia is a huge powerhouse that can do a lot on
| its own, I don't think Gulf states have the same capability
| to recover (at least that's what energy analysts are
| saying), 2) The US claimed they had completely maimed Iran
| in the first few days of the war, saying they had fully
| destroyed their navy and their missile launching
| capabilities. However, that clearly doesn't seem to be the
| case, and yesterday Iran even downed an F35, which until
| then was thought of as an almost impossible feat
|
| I guess there's a lot up in the air right now, so I
| personally wouldn't bet on things getting better that
| quickly
| fpoling wrote:
| The same analysts predicted that it would take years for
| Russia to recover from the strikes. And Russia is no
| longer a powerhouse. They gets most of their equipment
| from China including the oil and gas industries.
|
| As for Iran just count the number of drones it uses per
| day. They started from hundreds but now it is below 50.
| caminante wrote:
| This article is anecdotal with quotes from a BYD salesman about
| their product, and it doesn't mention that BYD's sales are down
| in Jan-Feb. 2026 (-36% y/y).
|
| electrek.co is a renewables (biased) blog.
| rossjudson wrote:
| I see no reason to downvote this, so I upvote it.
|
| I think you're missing something. This war is an inflection
| point. Consumer behavior is likely to change after it.
|
| So yes, this is just a transient thing...but I think the
| effects will be permanent.
| Underphil wrote:
| At any one time I would assume there are thousands of people in
| the world who are replacing their existing vehicle right at
| this very moment for normal reasons.
| jancsika wrote:
| > I'm sorry to be that guy, but can we reintroduce a good dose
| of skepticism in our mental diets?
|
| Of _headlines_? Always. Of the _content_ of the article? Not
| without you providing counterevidence.
|
| Speaking of the content:
|
| * BYD has seen an uptick in demand for EVs
|
| * "At one [BYD] dealership in Manila, the capital of the
| Philippines, demand is so high that it booked a month's worth
| of orders in just the past two weeks"
|
| * another dealership nearby had to hire more salespeople
|
| * small uptick from Edmunds for people researching EVs in
| relevant period[1]
|
| 1: https://www.edmunds.com/car-news/electrified-vehicle-
| researc...
| tencentshill wrote:
| Just be aware of journalists relating 2 unrelated things
| happening at the same time using "among" and "as" and discount
| the article accordingly. If you didn't pay money for the
| article, they _will_ utilize click and engagement bait. Of
| course a week of increased oil prices hasn 't changed any
| measurable purchasing patterns as the title implies.
| bawolff wrote:
| It seems really unlikely to me that 2 weeks worth of high oil
| prices is anything more than a rounding error in BYD's years
| (decade?) long bet on electric cars.
|
| Even if they tripled their sales for the last two weeks, it
| wouldn't be relavent to if their bet will ultimately pay off.
| claaams wrote:
| Extrapolate this into a forever war where oil is increasingly
| expensive week after week.
| nxm wrote:
| I'll trust the markets instead of some emotional ideological
| posts
| sam345 wrote:
| The oil spike clearly seems it will be short-term. Once the
| Iran war is over oil will plummet. Car makers can't make
| decisions on short-term spikes.
| paxys wrote:
| Genius strategy by the USA to disincentivize EVs, disincentivize
| solar and wind, increase dependency on oil & gas, and...start a
| war that makes oil and gas more expensive for everyone. Markets
| are now forecasting oil prices will stay above $100 a barrel for
| multiple _years_. Best of luck to the economy.
| wrs wrote:
| "Strategy", you say.
| mlinhares wrote:
| It is a strategy, the oil producers in the US are making bank
| right now. They're getting exactly what they paid for by
| buying this presidency.
| paxys wrote:
| There's a sweet spot in oil pricing that maximizes profits
| for producers, and $110 a barrel is well over that. If
| there's a recession then nobody is buying your product.
| morkalork wrote:
| It IS a great strategy if you're an oligarchy or you've quasi-
| annexed an oil rich central American country. Just sucks for us
| peasants.
| stavros wrote:
| Secure all the oil of one country, while bombing another so
| prices rise dramatically. Make everyone pay higher prices
| while they dramatically speed up their move away from oil
| (buying all the equipment from your biggest enemy) and hate
| you in the process.
|
| It truly is a great strategy if you want to make a quick buck
| now before you become irrelevant in five years.
| jimbokun wrote:
| Trump is emulating the Carter presidency, except for being the
| exact opposite in character and temperament.
| legitronics wrote:
| Well the USA is a net exporter of all oil products since 2019,
| this will probably make some people very rich and has the
| potential to be good for parts of the us energy sector.
|
| The west coast is the only part that relies on middle eastern
| oil. And a spike in prices will just get them in line and
| connected to the rest of the shale powered system.
|
| I don't like any of this, but I think the doom and gloom lies
| elsewhere.
| cogman10 wrote:
| > this will probably make some people very rich
|
| yes
|
| > has the potential to be good for parts of the us energy
| sector.
|
| No way this is good for anyone other than oil producers. The
| only potential positive it'll have on the US energy and
| shipping sectors is this is going to put even more pressure
| on adopting renewables as fossil fuel cost spikes.
| ambicapter wrote:
| Well then that's good for the US renewable energy sector,
| no?
| seanmcdirmid wrote:
| Or the Chinese renewable energy sector.
| nobodyandproud wrote:
| No, because the US has fallen so far behind in just 10
| years.
|
| It's not the knowledge and tech, but manufacturing-of and
| at-scale-use of renewables that matters here.
|
| We can't just-in-time install infrastructure a across the
| entire country in a matter of weeks or months.
| bigbadfeline wrote:
| That's good only for inflation, nothing else. Renewables
| are included, after inflation and tariffs they won't
| become more attractive compared to carbohydrates.
| triceratops wrote:
| Not always. Inflation often leads to higher interest
| rates. This puts a damper on financing for renewable
| energy projects.
| seanmcdirmid wrote:
| > The west coast is the only part that relies on middle
| eastern oil. And a spike in prices will just get them in line
| and connected to the rest of the shale powered system.
|
| The west coast is adopting EVs at a faster pace than the rest
| of the country. You could just as well see accelerated
| adoption of EVs in personal and freight transportation,
| Chinese manufacturers opening up US EV production, and so on.
|
| The answer isn't necessarily drawing shale from Alberta that
| we can't really process anyways (without mixing it with light
| crude from Texas anyways).
| phil21 wrote:
| The west coast also has some of the highest priced
| electricity in the nation, with apparently projections on
| it getting even worse somehow.
|
| It's amazing how much grift and subsidy leveraging the US
| renewables market has engaged in compared to pragmatic
| deployments elsewhere like China. Utterly insane and it
| shows how difficult it's going to be to fix since it's an
| endemic problem with American society at its core.
| outside2344 wrote:
| We also have some the cheapest, because solar covers my
| 90% of my usage for the whole year.
| derf_ wrote:
| You know who else is a net exporter of oil and gas? Russia.
| Starting a war with Iran is literally the biggest favor Trump
| could have done for Putin.
| outside2344 wrote:
| You mean Trump did what Putin wanted
| outside2344 wrote:
| We are a net exporter but all Americans still exist in the
| same market where oil is $100+ and very few benefit from
| that.
| while_true_ wrote:
| >> The west coast is the only part that relies on middle
| eastern oil. And a spike in prices will just get them in line
| and connected to the rest of the shale powered system.<<
|
| Californian here. There is no discussion or any desire to
| build an oil pipeline from TX/LA across NM and AZ to deliver
| oil to refineries here. Ha, if you think the Keystone XL
| pipeline was controversial... it'll never happen.
|
| Calif produces about 20% from its own but tired wells. Some
| oil is imported from the Middle East but larger volumes come
| by ship from South America and Alaska.
| milkytron wrote:
| Where do you see these long term forecasts?
| cogman10 wrote:
| > Markets are now forecasting oil prices will stay above $100 a
| barrel for multiple years
|
| It'll never go below $100 a barrel.
|
| It went bellow $100 a barrel for the last few years because as
| US shale processing came online, opec decided to also keep
| production high which cut oil prices from $100/barrel to
| ~$50/barrel where it's roughly stayed for the last decade.
|
| There's not another "new way to extract oil for cheap"
| technique on the horizon. Israel and Iran are both destroying
| oil extraction and processing facilities in the gulf region,
| it'll take years and a huge amount of money just to rebuild
| those. By the time that's finished, assuming it finishes,
| inflation will have firmly caused the price of oil to stay
| above $100.
|
| This is basically a permanent increase. We are sort of at
| global warming catastrophes now. It's not a question of if it
| will be bad, it's a question of how long and how intense. The
| longer this war/military operation/regime change/whatever we
| are doing goes forward, the worse it will be. And,
| unfortunately, I don't think there's any specific goal the
| trump admin is trying to achieve. This is such an obvious F-up
| and Trump will only pull out if he can somehow make a claim
| that it isn't.
| Pxtl wrote:
| I think that's the important distinction.
|
| > Israel and Iran are both destroying oil extraction and
| processing facilities in the gulf region
|
| This isn't like Katrina where oil infrastructure was being
| temporarily evacuated, shut down, and taking some water and
| wind damage.
|
| The oil infrastructure is being blown to smithereens. And not
| just pumps that are sucking oil out of a hole in the ground.
| Refineries. Big expensive factories that process oil. Stuff
| we don't even bother to _build_ in progressive parts of the
| world because the combination of environmental regulations
| and concerns about climate change mean it 's possible they'll
| never pay off their massive construction costs.
| phil21 wrote:
| > Stuff we don't even bother to build in progressive parts
| of the world because the combination of environmental
| regulations and concerns about climate change mean it's
| possible they'll never pay off their massive construction
| costs.
|
| Ignoring pollution and externalities for the sake of
| argument this is what is very interesting to me. It's not
| clear that the capital markets if left to their own devices
| would even invest in rebuilding these to begin with due to
| concerns about being paid back.
|
| The oil industry has went from growth based investments to
| capturing returns on current deployed infrastructure over
| the past decade or so. Only very limited and calculated
| capital is being deployed in this sector these days.
|
| It will certainly be interesting to watch. I'm certain
| those countries will rebuild via government funds, but I'm
| wondering how profitable that will end up actually being
| given how expensive that's become to build, the insane
| construct lead times these days, and the overall trend in
| oil demand. Natural gas is even more interesting since it's
| firmly directly linked to renewable energy deployment. Gas
| usage goes up as we deploy more solar worldwide, at least
| in the short term.
| foxglacier wrote:
| War with Iran was inevitable - either US/Israel starts it or
| Iran starts it - when they get the upper hand. And that war was
| bound to disrupt oil supply. Don't forget their goal is death
| to America and Death to Israel. That's what they've been arming
| themselves for for decades. That's what they're trying to build
| nuclear bombs for. They had to be stopped eventually and that
| was always going to be uncomfortable for whoever did it, but
| the sooner the better. Why can't you just celebrate this good
| thing?
| throwworhtthrow wrote:
| I assume this is an infuriatingly subtle parody, because:
|
| > Why can't you just celebrate this good thing?
|
| reads like <font size=2> /s </font>.
| bigfatkitten wrote:
| Iran has been "two weeks away" from a nuclear capability for
| nearly 40 years, and the status quo was the best possible
| outcome for the US.
|
| The US getting dragged into Israel's war does not serve
| anyone's interests other than Israel's.
| gib444 wrote:
| Will be so funny watching the rug pull when the cheap overnight
| electricity rates disappear, especially in the UK where
| electricity is very expensive.
|
| Not if. When. You never 'win' in the UK, not in the long term
| cromulent wrote:
| BYD are about to launch an EV that charges from 10 to 70% in 5
| minutes. As much as I recoil at a brand called "Build Your
| Dreams", that is quite compelling.
|
| https://www.byd.com/us/news-list/DENZA-Z9GT-to-start-Europes...
| mikestew wrote:
| See those big T-shaped things in the picture? Those are the
| charging stations that BYD (or someone) is going to need to
| build to see those charging speeds. I'm not saying it can't be
| done, but as one with an 800V Hyundai that has theoretical
| charging speed of 350kW, don't expect to just plug in at
| Electrify America and be done in 5 minutes. (Because the
| highest I've seen on the Hyundai was 243kW, and I've seen that
| _once_ , and over 200kW only twice.)
|
| But BYD is pushing forward, and though there's some
| infrastructure to build it'll get there eventually.
| jimbokun wrote:
| I imagine in China they will be able to build out a network
| of those much much faster than would be possible here in the
| USA.
| mikestew wrote:
| I was thinking more of EU, since BYD won't be selling cars
| in the US anytime soon, but you make an excellent point
| that maybe BYD wasn't thinking outside of China for at
| least the short term.
| crote wrote:
| On the other hand, 5-minute charging is _definitely_ a luxury
| thing: most charging is going to be at home, a decent bunch
| will be destination charging, people doing long trips
| generally don 't mind having the car charge for 30 minutes
| while they eat dinner in a roadside restaurant, and only a
| handful of people are insane enough to drive well over 10
| hours at a time with only a single 5-minute break.
|
| In practice I bet 5-minute charging will mainly be used to
| show off for your golf buddies. Co-locate it with the
| megawatt-scale chargers we'll be building for trucks next to
| major highways anyways, and it can be offered as a very
| profitable luxury product without too much extra effort.
| mikestew wrote:
| There _are_ times when I wished our Ioniq 5 charged more
| slowly, like when I want to grab a bite. On a good day,
| back to 80% in 15 minutes, with a 10 minute grace period
| before the per-minute charges kick in, and there 's barely
| time to sit and eat the meal.
|
| But one thing 5 minute charging would improve is
| throughput. We're in the middle of a house remodel, and no
| room in the garage at the moment for the car to get near
| the charger. So we've been charging at public chargers a
| lot, and in the three or four times I've hit a public
| charger recently, I've had to wait on another car to unplug
| about half the time. Granted, this is the Seattle area
| where you can't swing a golf club without hitting an EV,
| but I've had the same problem on road trips, too.
| michaelteter wrote:
| If one removed the country names and just looked at where
| investment (focus, planning, and money) was, we would see two
| greatly different pictures.
|
| One country is disincentivizing or even blocking renewable energy
| production, rolling back climate protection measures, trying to
| revitalize the coal industry, slashing investment in scientific
| research of all kinds, demonizing higher education, and spending
| vast and rapidly increasing amounts of public funds to create
| direct, physical conflicts.
|
| Another country is increasing their renewable energy generation
| capabilities dramatically each year, encouraging EV adoption,
| investing very heavily in scientific research, and also investing
| in military (although without initiating direct physical
| conflicts).
|
| One of these two countries is riding on momentum, but the drag
| from waste and mismanagement of resources is increasingly slowing
| it. The other country is building momentum while reducing drag.
|
| The difference in these approaches will be obvious in a decade,
| and in two decades one of the two countries will be just another
| chapter in a book about the rise and fall of empires.
| smallerfish wrote:
| > in two decades
|
| While I agree with your overall point, I'm reminded of "the
| market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent"
| here. The US is a huge economy with a massive military
| infrastructure. I don't think it's fading to fallen empire
| status that quickly.
| mptest wrote:
| When the only question is how precipitous the empire's fall
| will be, it's not looking good, regardless.
| ambicapter wrote:
| That is always the only question.
| seanmcdirmid wrote:
| It is fading though, we are only arguing about the magnitude
| of its velocity and acceleration at this point.
| nxm wrote:
| Is it though? Dollar is appreciating in times of turmoil?
| And what's the alternative - the all talk Europeans?
| garbagewoman wrote:
| Alternative to what?
| danny_codes wrote:
| Presumably China given OPs comments.
|
| It's going to be a multi-polar world. The US will
| continue to be among the top powers for decades to come.
| We're simply exiting an unusual period where China isn't
| leading/among the leading pack of countries.
|
| The rate of US relative decline will be set by our policy
| decisions and cohesion. As we are apparently electing
| malicious narcissists with dementia to our highest
| office, a more precipitous decline seems reasonable
| expedition32 wrote:
| I prefer talk to bombs. In that way Europe has more in
| common with China- wars ar just too messy and expensive.
| raw_anon_1111 wrote:
| Europe is wisely waking up and starting to loosen its
| military dependence on the US. Hopefully they are/will do the
| same when it comes to medical research since the US has been
| taken over by anti-vaxxers.
|
| I'm saying this as a non European. I'm an American who is
| making plans to split my time between the US and Costa Rica
| (here now) and maybe Panama and would love to see them become
| close to Europe politically.
| overfeed wrote:
| > Hopefully they are/will do the same when it comes to
| medical research since the US has been taken over by anti-
| vaxxers.
|
| Aren't European companies already very competitive in drug
| development and Medical devices? Philips practically owns
| the ultrasound markets globally -- Novo Nordisk, GSK,
| Bayer, Merck, seem competitive too.
| raw_anon_1111 wrote:
| I have no idea. That's why I was purposefully being wishy
| washy.
| nullocator wrote:
| Most people probably said the same thing about the Soviet
| Union in the 1980s
| HPsquared wrote:
| 'How did you go bankrupt?'
|
| 'Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.'
| omgwtfbyobbq wrote:
| Hopefully. With that said, when a country makes too many poor
| decisions, independently or relative to other countries,
| it'll eventually bite them in the butt.
| dessimus wrote:
| >The US is a huge economy with a massive military
| infrastructure.
|
| Yeah, because famously neither Rome nor Spain nor England had
| massive military infrastructures for their times.
| ripvanwinkle wrote:
| I'd say it's a closer race and the end is not a foregone
| conclusion yet. That one country currently exhibiting some very
| troubling tendencies also has more robust self-healing
| mechanisms in the form of democracy. It has gone off course in
| the past too but then found its way back. That said, those
| self-healing mechanisms are under attack as well so there is at
| least some suspense in the long term outcome
| rob74 wrote:
| I'd love to share your optimism and trust in that country-
| that-shall-not-be-named's self-healing mechanisms, but its
| system is already centuries old and based on a sort of
| "gentleman's agreement" that each of the powers in the state
| will respect the others. To make things worse, since WW2, the
| executive has amassed more and more power which a
| sufficiently unscrupulous president can use to start an
| authoritarian takeover. Currently, the only hope I see is
| that enough people are fond enough of their democracy (even
| if only because that's what they grew up with) to stand up
| for it when push comes to shove...
| bigfatkitten wrote:
| A major problem facing that nation is that not many people
| are particularly interested in maintaining a democracy.
| They just want to see the "other team" lose.
| mrtksn wrote:
| US has fossil energy and its actually on the front lines in
| innovation including green energy, so it will probably be fine.
| IMHO the main risk would be whatever hapen to the Japanese
| mobile phone industry happening to US. That is, US will
| probably end up developing lots of very cool US specific tech
| that people will talk about how impressive it is but no one
| will be interested in actually buying it because everyone else
| will have moved on.
| palmotea wrote:
| > If one removed the country names and just looked at where
| investment (focus, planning, and money) was, we would see two
| greatly different pictures.
|
| > ...
|
| > The difference in these approaches will be obvious in a
| decade, and in two decades one of the two countries will be
| just another chapter in a book about the rise and fall of
| empires.
|
| The interesting question is: why. I'd say the US ultimately
| will be judged to be another victim of the "shock doctrine" (in
| its case, the China Shock). In other words (at least in a
| democracy): letting the economists and libertarians run wild
| with the economy will create a backlash that will ultimately
| weaken it.
|
| The supposedly smart people in charge needed to pay less
| attention to their pet theories, and way more attention to the
| common people. They didn't, and this is the result.
| deeg wrote:
| And even more galling is the why. One country is turning its
| back on renewables because it's "woke". Just the dumbest people
| in charge.
| karel-3d wrote:
| China is one of the top producers of CO2? They also keep
| building new coal plants faster than anyone
|
| Energy doesn't appear immaculately from the heavens. You need
| to spend a lot of conventional fossil fuel to be able to make
| renewables
| tuna74 wrote:
| "Energy doesn't appear immaculately from the heavens."
|
| It actually does. There is a big fusion reactor up there that
| gives us a lot of direct energy, if you don't live near the
| poles it is enough for everything.
| arzig wrote:
| It's been a month. Not long enough for a trend. Every time gas
| prices spike these celebratory pieces come out and then when gas
| prices drop at the end the consumer markets revealed preferences
| are made bare again. Let's find out if this can sustain for more
| than a year after gas prices drop.
| macintux wrote:
| Last time gas spiked above $4/gallon nationally people were
| trading in their huge gas guzzlers at an extreme loss (because
| no one else wanted them either). I read an article about
| someone who was contemplating losing $30k on their trade-in
| instead of continuing to pay high gas prices.
|
| (I don't know what my point is, just that people have short
| memories, and are generally speaking not rational about
| purchases, or money in general.)
| jimbokun wrote:
| The trend has existed especially outside the US for several
| years now, this is just an acceleration of that trend.
| linuxhansl wrote:
| How much many more wars over gas or oil do we need to finally
| just take the energy that (for the most part) is available
| locally and renewable?!
|
| The petrol era is coming to an end. Our current administration
| might desperately want to remain a petrol state (for reasons that
| escape me), but it will only delay the inevitable. The EU is not
| much better either. The writing has been on the wall, and even
| since the Russian invasion into Ukraine not much has happened.
|
| What is going on? Are we all insane, or is it just intense
| lobbying of yesterday's petrol industry?
| jimbokun wrote:
| We are clinging desperately to our horses and buggies.
| crooked-v wrote:
| > for reasons that escape me
|
| The reasons are simple: liberals want renewable energy,
| therefore renewable energy is bad and must be destroyed.
|
| It's oppositional defiant disorder on a cultural scale.
| nxm wrote:
| No- it's just that people want choice, and not have to pay
| for tax credits (via lost government tax revenue)
| crooked-v wrote:
| There's a huge difference between getting rid of tax
| credits, and doing things like forcing unprofitable and
| obsolete coal plants to say open
| (https://stateline.org/2026/03/19/trump-is-forcing-coal-
| plant...) and attempting to arbitrarily ban free market
| renewable energy projects under no valid legal basis
| (https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn7k6p6k5x5o).
| danny_codes wrote:
| Seems current admin wants less choice. No imports of EVs
| from countries that do it better and no support for local
| EV makers.
|
| As for tax credits, sure, push policy requires spending.
| But then this admin has spent approximately 100B trying to
| reduce spending and instead increased spending, so this
| seems like penny-wise pound foolish
| expedition32 wrote:
| America has their own Cultural Revolution!
| tencentshill wrote:
| EVs were on track to being mainstream 20 years ago. See the
| other story about the 90s GM EV1 and associated documentary.
| All the technology was there in 1999, but every EV in
| development simultaneously shut down once they started becoming
| usable.
| Barrin92 wrote:
| > The EU is not much better either.
|
| the share of renewables of the EU at ~55% of net energy
| generation is almost twice as high as China's or America's,
| only Latin America fairs better. Germany essentially front ran
| this industry 20 years ago. Although as usual it turns out
| better to be second than first a bit of credit here please.
| 1270018080 wrote:
| China is going to take over the world economically off of this
| energy crisis. They print solar panels like America prints money.
| MangoCoffee wrote:
| you got the smartest man on Earth, Mr. Orange telling American to
| drill drill drill while American is losing its edge on EV.
| outside2344 wrote:
| The important thing to always realize is that Trump optimizes
| for one thing only: himself. Everyone else doesn't matter.
| zzzeek wrote:
| i cant wait until we can have these cars in the US. looks like
| I'm going to be pretty geriatric by that time but it's absolutely
| stupid how many ICE cars are still all over the place at this
| point
| mbgerring wrote:
| If your time horizon is long enough, the best possible investment
| thesis is to assume that climate change is real and the energy
| transition is inevitable.
|
| I've worked in clean energy software and hardware since 2014. I'm
| currently looking for a new position, and recently some research
| firms came out of the woodwork offering to pay me a high
| consulting rate just to better understand the market. I wasn't
| even looking for this, they just came to me. All they said was
| "interest in this area is increasing."
|
| P.S., if you're looking for someone with deep domain knowledge
| and senior-level engineering skills for your clean energy
| project, I'm available. https://matthewgerring.com
| stavros wrote:
| Guys I own a BYD and love it, but oil prices have risen in the
| past, like, two days. Perhaps the headline is a bit
| sensationalized?
| crooked-v wrote:
| For what it's worth, I feel like it's perfectly logical to make
| any current new car purchase choices taking into account the US
| history of Middle East forever wars and that the Strait of
| Hormuz will probably be a deathtrap for years at this point.
| stavros wrote:
| Oh definitely agree, and that's part of why I wanted to by an
| EV, but there simply hasn't been enough time since the Iran
| invasion to see it affect sales numbers.
| foxglacier wrote:
| Sounds like a belief that you can easily profit from in the
| markets. Are you putting your money where your mouth is or do
| you just want to believe that so you can feel smug about your
| beliefs, independent of reality?
| crooked-v wrote:
| My investments already had a focus towards green energy
| instead of fossil fuels well before the US war on Iran. Why
| would I need to "feel smug" about somebody's choice of car
| purchase?
| jjcm wrote:
| ~4 years ago my wife and I planned on buying one EV and one ICE
| car purely as a hedge on both. We bought the EV first. After ~1mo
| of driving it we changed our plans and went for 2 EVs. Even
| driving long distance (we've made a ~3hr drive around every 10
| days for the last 4 years), the convenience factor of EVs has
| outweighed gas. That doubled once we got solar - there's just
| something magical about having the operating cost of your vehicle
| be near zero. Even maintenance is significantly less for the EV.
| I will never buy a gas car again - it feels like switching from a
| platter hard drive to a SSD, once you make the switch it's very
| hard to go back.
| christoph wrote:
| Totally agree. We only dipped our toe into a small little cheap
| ev for shorter journeys in January. Looked at getting a charger
| fitted, then saw great appeal in a Powerwall+Solar... I'm lucky
| with roof size and direction - we could get 9kw of panels on.
| The sun's been shining nicely the last few days in the UK and
| it's honestly beyond magical to see it all working so
| beautifully, even getting 100w at 6:40 this morning! This week
| we've barely used the grid at all, powering the whole house,
| car & heating our hot water through the day, all from the roof
| at no ongoing cost! It was a big investment, but it really does
| feel like one of the best - it's giving us a real degree of
| independence and instant and massive bill reductions.
|
| So I have the exact same feeling! Getting into an ICE car now
| feels like taking a massive step backwards in so many ways.
| TremendousJudge wrote:
| What I find most amazing about all this is that this is literally
| the market that Tesla was aiming for. Affordable EVs for regular
| people was their whole thing, they were years ahead of BYD,
| already had an established brand, they just had to keep doing
| what they were doing, adding cheaper models to their lineup, and
| they would be much stronger competitors.
| eqvinox wrote:
| I'm in Shenzhen currently. Do you know how quiet the city is,
| even during rush hour? It's amazing. All because almost every car
| is electric. Even the damn scooters. It'd actually be enjoyable
| to be outdoor in downtown if they fixed the air pollution...
| (some of which of course powers these cars... for now.)
| fainpul wrote:
| EVs are only quiet when driving very slowly. At about 50 km/h
| (30 mph) they are pretty much the same as ICE cars.
|
| What's the general speed limit where you are?
| seanmcdirmid wrote:
| I can't imagine the cars can go very fast in SZ during rush
| hour, Beijing is the same way.
| Kirby64 wrote:
| It's really understated how much noise is purely from engines
| idling, and this largely brings up the average noise in a
| city.
|
| There's plenty of techniques to reduce noise coming from
| highways, then that leaves the noise in city streets where
| EVs are vastly, vastly superior from a noise perspective. It
| just brings down the noise floor overall.
| seanmcdirmid wrote:
| The main noise from cars is tire noise. But if traffic moves
| slowly enough (which it does in a Chinese city during rush
| hour), you won't hear much.
|
| Even since 2002 I've had to dodge quiet e-bikes in Beijing.
| They just sneak up on you without any noise, and they have a
| lot more momentum than a human powered bike.
| tlogan wrote:
| We should do something here.
|
| Nothing will be done at Federal level.
|
| But california is big enough to make things moving without any
| federal level law.
|
| For example, what about this:
|
| - no sales taxes on new EV sales
|
| - free registration for 5 years
|
| - free bridge tolls for 5 years
|
| This will be paid by increasing gas taxes, sales taxes on ICE,
| and registration fees for ICE.
|
| That might convince some of companies to start making EVs again.
| karel-3d wrote:
| If there only was an American company that specializes in EVs.
| Maybe some with a well known founder
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