[HN Gopher] Tech employment now significantly worse than the 200...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Tech employment now significantly worse than the 2008 or 2020
       recessions
        
       Author : enraged_camel
       Score  : 598 points
       Date   : 2026-03-06 17:46 UTC (5 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (twitter.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (twitter.com)
        
       | whimsicalism wrote:
       | the 2020 'recession' wasn't really bad for tech employment at all
        
         | CrossVR wrote:
         | In fact in sectors like the game industry the pandemic resulted
         | in a massive hiring boom. The layoffs only materialized after
         | the pandemic was well and truly over.
        
           | johnnyanmac wrote:
           | Yeah, pandemic was good overall. Next generation of consoles
           | looming, sales overall were up since people were forced
           | inside, there were finally some loosening of dev kit
           | practices to accommodate for the lack of offices to go into
           | (I never would have imagined in 2015 having a dev kit in my
           | home 5 years later) .Pretty much the only art medium to
           | benefit from the times while cinema collapsed, Streaming
           | services were running a defecit war where no one won except
           | Netflix, and music stalled for a bit.
           | 
           | But as per usual, the bust hit just as hard as the boom.
           | Multiple high profile failures in games and initiatives as a
           | whole, Microsoft and Apple decided to stop bleeding money
           | with their respective subscription deals, mobile gaming (from
           | the advent of Genshin Imapct and co) became less an easy cash
           | grab and more a 2nd wing of AAA development, investments
           | dried up overnight for indies (unless 'AI').
           | 
           | And the headcount, of course:
           | https://variety.com/2026/gaming/news/one-third-video-game-
           | wo...
        
         | locusofself wrote:
         | on a personal level I was hired (by Microsoft, my first and
         | only "big tech" job) in April 2020 and I am still working
         | here... all these companies "over-hired" during the pandemic,
         | and the term "covid hire" is even a thing..
        
           | zdragnar wrote:
           | I remember interviewing someone who got hired by Facebook,
           | sat around for a few weeks for a team to open up while they
           | went through onboarding / Junior training, then was let go.
           | 
           | COVID did weird things to the industry, that's for sure.
        
             | locusofself wrote:
             | I seem to hear often that Meta is perhaps the most
             | egregious offender of "hire to fire". Seems really
             | wasteful. But man, they pay their employees a lot.
        
             | jarjoura wrote:
             | Before Musk made it cool to mass layoff, there was a
             | genuine belief inside of Facebook/Meta that great engineers
             | were extremely hard to find or hold onto and if they
             | weren't on the payroll at Meta, they would go somewhere
             | else.
             | 
             | There was always a "clock" for junior engineers to prove
             | they could handle the high pressure and high intensity
             | work, and as long as they were meeting the bar, they were
             | safe.
             | 
             | They called on-boarding, "Bootcamp", and was for every
             | engineer, junior to staff, to learn the process and
             | tooling. Engineers were supposed to be empowered to take on
             | whatever task they wanted, without pre-existing team
             | boundaries if it meant they were able to prove their
             | contributions genuinely improved the product in meaningful
             | ways. So, come in, learn the culture, learn the tooling,
             | meet others, and then at some point, pick your home team.
             | Your home team was flexible, and you were able to spend
             | weeks deciding, and even if you selected one, you could
             | always change, no pressure. Happy engineers were seen as
             | the secret sauce of the company's success.
             | 
             | I remember that summer, vividly. They told the folks in
             | Bootcamp, pick your home team by the end of the week, or
             | you will be stuck in Bootcamp purgatory. At the same time
             | they removed head count from teams, ours went down to a
             | single one. A new-grad, who had literally just arrived that
             | Monday, picked our team on Tuesday, and then had to watch
             | as most of their fellow Bootcamp mates got left behind.
             | 
             | People wondered what would happen to them for weeks, and
             | then, just like that, the massive layoff sent them all
             | home. It was shitty because from where I sat, it was
             | basically a slot machine. Anyone of the folks in Bootcamp
             | were just as capable, but we had one seat, and someone just
             | asked for it first.
        
           | johnnyanmac wrote:
           | Overhiring implies that MSFT's headcount went down over this
           | time. But that doesn't seem to be the case. They still hire a
           | lot, just not in North America.
        
         | francisofascii wrote:
         | I think 2001 and 2002 were worse than 2000. I was lucky to find
         | a job in 2002 after graduating. There were hiring freezes and
         | layoffs everywhere.
        
       | GenerWork wrote:
       | There's still the hangover from free Covid money. I think the
       | number one reason that it feels worse is that there's a LOT more
       | people in the industry now than back in 2020. Much more
       | competition than before.
        
         | zthrowaway wrote:
         | Yup. Amazon doubled their workforce through the pandemic. I
         | think a lot of tech companies are still cutting fat from those
         | days.
        
         | kypro wrote:
         | Those of us who have been in the industry for 15-20 years we
         | remember a time when tech was just a job.
         | 
         | In the mid 2010s, then most notably in late 2020 - 2021, you
         | had people who had no interest in tech entering the industry
         | because they saw it as an easy career to make decent money in.
         | 
         | It got pretty bad in the late 2010s, but it become almost
         | comical in 2021 with people who took a two-week coding
         | bootcamps suddenly landing 6 figure jobs. Some of these people
         | were even working at multiple companies at the same time.
         | 
         | The optimist in me hopes this all shakes out with those people
         | who had no interest in tech moving on to other things. These
         | types of people were not only bad employees, they were also bad
         | for the industry, and in my opinion responsible for culture
         | shift from tech being a place dominating by "nerds" and "geeks"
         | in the 90/00s to the modern "tech-bro" stereotype.
         | 
         | The realist in me though will continue to warn people the tech
         | job they're working at today is likely their last. Between tech
         | industry growth slowing, the excessive over production of tech
         | talent and AI + SASS automating a lot of traditional software
         | development work it's going to be exponentially harder to
         | remain employed in tech in the coming years.
         | 
         | So much so you might as well find a relatively worse paid job
         | if it means you don't have periods of months of unemployment
         | every year.
        
       | kaeruct wrote:
       | https://xcancel.com/JosephPolitano/status/202991636466461124...
        
         | QuercusMax wrote:
         | What that graph looks like to me is that there were a ton of
         | marginal folks hired during COVID, and we're shedding a lot of
         | those folks who probably shouldn't have been hired anyway.
        
           | dimgl wrote:
           | Unfortunately... I want to mirror this sentiment. I
           | interviewed a lot of candidates (and worked with many
           | teammates) in my last few roles and I saw some pretty
           | worrying trends...
        
           | jatins wrote:
           | I mean COVID was 5 years ago and many companies have had
           | multiple rounds of layoff since then, how long will we keep
           | calling it covid shedding
        
       | palmotea wrote:
       | The ideal software engineer will code himself out of a job and be
       | happy about it.
       | 
       | Be that ideal. The shareholders are counting on you!
        
         | locusofself wrote:
         | But LLMs are already doing this for us supposedly...
        
           | palmotea wrote:
           | > But LLMs are already doing this for us supposedly...
           | 
           | Exactly my point. Encourage LLM adoption, faster, faster. Be
           | excited about your homeless future, software engineers!
        
             | vaxman wrote:
             | Are we in the Cathedral or the Bazaar now? I get that
             | confused. Everyone upload their code to GitHub --keep your
             | truth (philosophically AND mathematically) in the Cloud ;)
             | Oh and don't forget to document your critical thinking, on
             | Slack. It goes much deeper tho.
             | 
             | [cue the POS https://youtu.be/SP-gN1zoI28]
        
         | groby_b wrote:
         | Counterpoint: I've been desperately trying to code myself out
         | of a job for almost 4 decades now. I inevitably ended up (and
         | keep ending up) getting more responsibilities instead.
         | 
         | So have all the great engineers I've been working with -
         | there's a deep desire for growth past the things that you're
         | currently good at.
         | 
         | The people worrying they might code themselves out of a job are
         | in a different skill demographic. (Ironically, that means they
         | won't be able to code themselves out of a job)
        
           | palmotea wrote:
           | > Counterpoint: I've been desperately trying to code myself
           | out of a job for almost 4 decades now. I inevitably ended up
           | (and keep ending up) getting more responsibilities instead.
           | 
           | What _exactly_ do you mean by that? Do you mean you finished
           | one project but your employer had another one for you, which
           | you then were expected to work on instead of sitting idle? Or
           | do you mean you coded yourself into a  "promotion"?
           | 
           | My comment was just mocking the foolish selfless ethos of
           | many software engineers, who don't look out for themselves
           | and idealize giving to psychopathic organizations that will
           | screw them the moment that's advantageous. Many software
           | engineers have a pathological level of naivete and confusion
           | about the role they really inhabit (e.g. righteously going on
           | about buggy-whip makers).
        
           | bobanrocky wrote:
           | Are you saying you want to be laid off with a nice package as
           | you've been with the same employer for a long time? Couple of
           | options: have a nice conversation with your manager and make
           | this clear. The signs are clear that major s/w layoffs will
           | happen in the next couple of years. Other option is to ease
           | off - your high salary and low output will put you in the
           | dustbin list
        
             | bdangubic wrote:
             | > your high salary and low output will put you in the
             | dustbin list
             | 
             | you'd think, but in my experience, once you reach high
             | salary - in a lot of places - you can coast _for a long
             | time_ with very little output
        
       | RivieraKid wrote:
       | Interesting, this shows growth in open positions:
       | https://www.trueup.io/job-trend
        
         | ICantFeelMyToes wrote:
         | True but there is also a massive proliferation of ghost jobs.
         | Dirty secret for a bunch of Series A places
        
           | 10xDev wrote:
           | Something needs to be done about these bots, it is getting
           | eerie. Yesterday a bot created an account named 100xLLM the
           | moment I responded to it to respond back with.
        
           | fred_is_fred wrote:
           | I see everyone say this but what is the point of making a
           | fake job opening? Are companies just doing that to see if a
           | unicorn applies?
        
             | xrd wrote:
             | Two reasons. One, they have already filled it internally
             | but legally have to post the job. Two, they are gathering
             | data on market trends and what salaries people will take,
             | which is useful if they are considering firing people and
             | rehiring with lower salaries.
             | 
             | I've applied for many jobs where I was perfectly qualified
             | and got rejection notices immediately. I applied on a
             | Sunday and got rejected on Sunday an hour later. No human
             | reviewed that application I made, it was auto rejected, and
             | if that's the case, what other explanation is there than
             | "ghost jobs."
        
               | phil21 wrote:
               | > and if that's the case, what other explanation is there
               | than "ghost jobs."
               | 
               | You didn't pass some arbitrary ruleset given to an AI or
               | machine learning algorithm.
               | 
               | Companies can be very selective now, and usually
               | implement this selectivity fairly stupidly. There also is
               | the problem of being genuinely swamped with bullshit
               | applicants for positions, so the false positive rate is
               | likely quite high at the moment.
               | 
               | I've found it _extremely_ difficult to sort the wheat
               | from the chaff right now. Finding competent people is
               | more difficult than ever, but the sheer number of
               | applicants is at least an order of magnitude higher.
               | Botting has made applying to jobs exceedingly low
               | friction, so there is very little downside to someone
               | entirely not qualified to apply to 600 jobs a day and
               | hope they get lucky.
               | 
               | We have positions that have been open for months that go
               | unfilled simply due to lack of time to sort through
               | applicants, and the few we do have time to interview
               | usually are obviously unqualified within the first 5
               | minutes of talking to them.
        
               | johnnyanmac wrote:
               | If you don't have the time to sort them through, there's
               | not much urgency to actually find someone, is there?
               | 
               | It also might point to a filtering mismatch of your get a
               | high false positive rate.
        
               | phil21 wrote:
               | Oh definitely. And our hiring practices are not exactly
               | state of the art. I'll be the first to admit they need a
               | giant amount of improvement.
               | 
               | Most of the good folks have come in via word of mouth and
               | networks, as they typically do.
               | 
               | For those outstanding positions they are "very nice to
               | haves" but obviously not critical. When the right
               | candidate gets matched we'll jump on the opportunity, but
               | it's not an existential problem for the moment.
        
               | xrd wrote:
               | This is undeniably happening as well. Totally agree.
               | 
               | I just have had lots rejections, and some where I did
               | have a good fit, that I don't think "AI auto rejection"
               | is the only story. I have good credentials, several F500
               | experiences, no big career gaps.
               | 
               | The only real success I have had in the last few years is
               | targeted emails (from who is hiring on HN) or through my
               | network.
               | 
               | It's very different than at any other time and I believe
               | it is a combination of a terrible market, AI rejections,
               | and ghost jobs. And I'm sure there are more than a few
               | ghost jobs.
        
               | jghn wrote:
               | I can't imagine applying to a job where I didn't already
               | have some sort of personal connection. That was already
               | true, and that's even more true now. Likewise, these days
               | as a hiring manager I'd be unlikely to hire someone that
               | came in via random application for the same reason
        
               | caminante wrote:
               | _> Two reasons. One, they have already filled it
               | internally but legally have to post the job._
               | 
               | This scenario isn't a "fake job," which are more akin to
               | ghost/scam/non-existent openings.
        
             | rexpop wrote:
             | I had an AI-agenerates answer for you, but then I realized
             | something deeper: moral hazard.
             | 
             | > Moral hazard is when one party takes actions that impose
             | costs on others because they don't fully bear those costs
             | themselves. With ghost jobs, employers get benefits (brand
             | signaling, resume mining, internal optics) while job
             | seekers eat the time, emotional, and sometimes financial
             | cost of chasing something that never really existed.
        
             | salawat wrote:
             | As a hiring manager, I have to write the job description.
             | HR is responsible for posting the damn thing where people
             | can see it, then into the ATS you go. We also know
             | recruiting posts can be a source of competitive
             | intelligence and signal for investors. We don't want it
             | used that way, but we're aware of it. Bit of a dirty
             | secret. That means, alas, the only people hurt are the
             | applicants looking for work. I'll work through the queue
             | when I have a billet to fill, but otherwise... You're
             | shouting into the void. Not sure who is responsible for
             | reporting headcount increases to BLS, but I've actively
             | looked and never found the person. So... I honestly have no
             | idea how they get their numbers unless there is a pipeline
             | from the major payroll processors; which feels kinda ick if
             | you think about it.
        
               | schlauerfox wrote:
               | https://www.bls.gov/k12/teachers/posters/pdf/how-bls-
               | collect... This says statistics, i've seen unsourced
               | articles saying that they pull Unemployment Insurance
               | numbers as part of it which are part of the payroll
               | process, but BLS seems to say sampling and surveys.
        
             | FireBeyond wrote:
             | AI training?
             | 
             | There's a IT careers site that was sold, I believe, went
             | through a re-branding. And now they also offer AI and
             | "personal" resume reviews _and_ writing, cover letters, and
             | they even have members do a 10-15 minute AI virtual
             | interview that ostensibly could be shown to a hiring
             | manager.
             | 
             | I was unemployed as a PM for about three month. I applied
             | to in the order of 100 roles at this site, as well as
             | applications on the other sites you'd expect, from LI to
             | more niche.
             | 
             | I _felt_ that this site was  "underperforming". Jobs I'd
             | applied to that I'd only really seen on there I'd never
             | heard from. I saw jobs that were advertised in other places
             | on there too.
             | 
             | What sealed it for me was that towards the end of the three
             | months, I got an email from the site. "Your profile has
             | been viewed". I open it, "An employer is looking at your
             | profile". I'd never seen this type of email from them
             | before, and sure enough: "Your profile has been viewed 1
             | time in the last 90 days". That was it. No contacts, and
             | only one employer has even looked at my profile on the site
             | (and this is the kind of site where that'd be the only
             | place they could look at your application). And that
             | employer didn't even have positions open.
             | 
             | But the site does ask you questions to "submit to the
             | employer" about "why you want to work here" "why you'd make
             | a good fit", etc.
             | 
             | And I'm entirely convinced that the jobs they're
             | advertising are only (a very small) fractionally "real" and
             | ever reviewed by anyone at all (maybe the "promoted"
             | jobs?), and they're harvesting positions and jobs from
             | other sites or employers (there's no positions that don't
             | actually seem to exist, or at least not ads)...
             | 
             | ... and that their chief motivation for this is getting all
             | your answers to train their models for their actual revenue
             | generator - AI resume writing, cover letter writing, etc.
             | All pre-seeded with other people's real answers to such
             | questions.
        
             | johnnyanmac wrote:
             | There's a dozen different angles all coming out at once.
             | I'll try to summarize some.
             | 
             | - really wants to hire H1B, but needs to pretend to
             | interview first for compliance. These usually have absurd
             | requirements to make it viable to reject anyone.
             | 
             | - really wants to do an internal or referral hire or
             | promotion, but needs to interview for HR compliance. These
             | usually have such specific requirements that only the
             | person they want qualifies.
             | 
             | - posts jobs because a company wants to look like its
             | growing, even when it's not.
             | 
             | - posts jobs to either signal to an employee that they are
             | replaceable, or to try and relieve a stressed employee that
             | more help is coming. Either way, it's a bluff
             | 
             | - yes, sometimes you want to hold out for the perfect
             | unicorn and are not in any way in a rush to find them.
             | There's no distinction for this, but job posts are cheap so
             | why not?
             | 
             | - outdated posts that still stay up because There's no rush
             | to take it down.
             | 
             | - a technique used to lower compensation. They post a job,
             | see how many applications it gets. If it's more than
             | enough, they take it down (with no interviews) then put it
             | up once more at a lower rate. Repeat until not enough
             | people apply. This may or may not lead to interviews
             | because the actual goal is market probing.
             | 
             | -purely to advertise the company instead of actually hire.
             | Usually done at career fairs where you talk and realize
             | there's no actual open positions.
        
               | fred_is_fred wrote:
               | Thanks for that. I have seen internal hire before or even
               | "we know who we want but legal makes us post it for 7
               | days".
               | 
               | The comp technique you mentioned though seems like a lot
               | of work for price discovery, surely there are data sets
               | out there?
        
               | johnnyanmac wrote:
               | It's probably not the most efficient means, no. Probably
               | one of the cheapest methods, though. It's definitely not
               | something you can get away with in a good job market.
        
               | SoftTalker wrote:
               | > outdated posts that still stay up because There's no
               | rush to take it down.
               | 
               | Can also happen when it takes 3 months to get a job
               | posting approved, so once you get one you just leave it
               | up.
        
           | mamcx wrote:
           | I'm looking for job (in Rust) now and is absurd how many
           | positions are for training LLMS -in Rust!- (yeah, lets help
           | the people that wanna put everyone out of jobs)
        
             | tayo42 wrote:
             | What companies are hiring people to use rust?
        
               | OJFord wrote:
               | Loads, I come across it frequently and I'm not actively
               | looking for them.
        
             | nxm wrote:
             | If you don't then someone else will... genie is out of the
             | bottle
        
             | raw_anon_1111 wrote:
             | Well looking for a "programming job in $x" is going to be a
             | problem going forward. Programming itself is going to be a
             | commodity between AI and its harder to stand out in a
             | saturated market. I sell myself as someone who can get
             | stuff done using technology and can lead larger initiatives
        
       | teagee wrote:
       | The chart in the tweet represents year-on-year growth. Based on
       | these figures alone the actual number of people employed in tech
       | is still really high, and the numbers can't just go up forever.
       | 
       | Also this only captures 6 industries, which is a narrow view of
       | what would define "tech" these days.
       | 
       | Not to say that the job market isn't tough but this graph is a
       | very narrow view
        
         | causal wrote:
         | Thanks for pointing this out - title is extremely misleading.
         | Total tech jobs is not lower than 2008 just because YoY is
         | down.
        
           | OJFord wrote:
           | General media, news, etc. gets this wrong _all the time_ ,
           | see any commentary on inflation, GDP growth, rate of change
           | in house prices, etc.
        
         | oblio wrote:
         | Asked Gemini quickly for 2000 and 2025 numbers.
         | 
         | Tech employees: 5.5m vs 9.9.
         | 
         | Software developers: 0.68m vs 3.2m.
         | 
         | Different ball game.
        
         | onlyrealcuzzo wrote:
         | The chart shows devs still growing, and "Computer System Design
         | SERVICES" getting hammered (most of the total loss).
         | 
         | I'm not even sure this chart tells the story of the title.
        
           | klooney wrote:
           | Is this WITCH companies?
        
         | janalsncm wrote:
         | The chart shows the derivative of the thing people care about
         | which is total cumulative change. The area under the curve
         | shows cumulative change.
        
         | darth_avocado wrote:
         | > The chart in the tweet represents year-on-year growth.
         | 
         | Can't believe how many people are commenting without looking at
         | what the chart means. We've lost 50k jobs last two years after
         | decades of adding 100k+ every year including the pandemic highs
         | of 300k+ per year. Total employment remains way above 2000s,
         | 2008 and 2020 unlike the title suggests.
        
         | hyperpape wrote:
         | Yes, but...
         | 
         | The health of the market is not a function of the total number
         | of jobs alone, it's a function of the number of jobs and the
         | number of people to fill them.
         | 
         | The number of total jobs going up year after year meant that
         | there were increasing numbers of candidates, new people
         | entering the field. If the job growth stops, then there still
         | we be candidates coming in. There will also be the new hires
         | from the last decade moving into increasingly senior roles, and
         | there won't be space for them (unless you devalue the meaning
         | of "senior" even more).
         | 
         | So the year over year change matters a lot. If it plateaus, or
         | even declines slightly, it's more than enough to make a
         | terrible market.
        
           | magicnubs wrote:
           | YoY change in jobs is still probably not the best way to
           | visualize overall market health. As you say, you also have to
           | take into account the number of people of fill the jobs. To
           | me it seems like the least misleading statistics would be a
           | graph showing unemployment and underemployment % over time.
           | I'd probably also toss in graphs of length of unemployment
           | period as well as various median wage percentiles (quintiles
           | or deciles maybe) over time.
        
           | causal wrote:
           | It shows growth or decline but it absolutely does not show
           | what the title implies.
        
       | Oras wrote:
       | Tech hiring is bad, for sure, but the the graph does not make a
       | clear picture.
       | 
       | What is software publishers category? As it seems it's picking up
       | while Computer system design is the largest negative impact.
       | 
       | I would appreciate if there was a better chart explaining sort of
       | roles and locations that had the largest impact
        
       | mattas wrote:
       | It sure looks like during the ZIRP era, tech substantially
       | overhired. Post-ZIRP companies are correcting that (but under the
       | guise of AI).
        
         | zamadatix wrote:
         | To save some a search: Zero Interest-Rate Policy
        
       | mjr00 wrote:
       | In my experience, tech employment is _incredibly_ bimodal right
       | now. Top candidates are commanding higher salaries than ever, but
       | an  "average" developer is going to have an extremely hard time
       | finding a position.
       | 
       | Contrary to what many say, I don't think it's simple as seniors
       | are getting hired and juniors aren't. Juniors are still getting
       | hired because they're still way cheaper and they're just as
       | capable as using AI as anyone. The people getting pushed out are
       | the intermediates and seniors who aren't high performers.
        
         | electronsoup wrote:
         | > and they're just as capable as using AI as anyone
         | 
         | Wouldn't the assumption be the opposite, in that AI is
         | magnifying the decision making of the engineer and so you get
         | more payback by having the senior drive the AI?
        
           | chillacy wrote:
           | I've found this to be true so far, junior engineers with AI
           | can be super productive but they can also cause a lot of
           | damage (more outages than ever) and AI amplifies the
           | sometimes poorly designed code they can generate.
           | 
           | I suspect a lot of it best practices will be enforcing best
           | practices via agents.md/claude.md to create a more
           | constrained environment.
        
             | lumost wrote:
             | I've observed radically different workflows amongst senior
             | candidates vs junior candidates when using an ai. A senior
             | candidate will often build an extremely detailed plan for
             | the agent - similar to how you would do a design for/with a
             | junior engineer. Then let the agent go full throttle to
             | implement the plan and review the result.
             | 
             | Juniors seem to split into the category of trust everything
             | the ai says, or review every step of the implementation.
             | It's extremely hard to guide the ai while you are still
             | learning the basics, opus4.6 is a very powerful model.
        
               | devin wrote:
               | My observation has been that there are a lot of personal
               | styles to engaging with the LLMs that work, and "hold the
               | hand" vs "in-depth plan" vs "combination" doesn't really
               | matter. There is some minimum level of engagement
               | required for non-trivial tasks, and whether that
               | engagement comes mid-development, at the early design
               | phase, or after isn't really that big of a deal. Eg;
               | "Just enough planning" is a fine way of approaching the
               | problem if you're going to be in the loop once the
               | implementation starts.
        
               | foldr wrote:
               | I don't claim to have any special skill at AI, but as a
               | 'senior' dev, my strategy is exactly the opposite. I try
               | to be as lazy, dumb and concise as I can bring myself to
               | be with my initial prompt, and then just add more detail
               | for the bits that the AI didn't guess correctly the first
               | time around.
               | 
               | Quite often the AI guesses accurately and you save the
               | time you'd have spent crafting the perfect prompt.
               | Recently, my PM shared a nigh-on incompressible hand-
               | scribbled diagram on Slack (which, in fairness, was more
               | or less a joke). I uploaded it to Gemini with the prompt
               | "WTF does this diagram mean?". Even without a shred of
               | context, it figured out that it was some kind of product
               | feature matrix and produced a perfect three paragraph
               | summary.
               | 
               | I've never really seen the value in the planning phase as
               | you're free to just throw away whatever the AI produces
               | and try again with a different prompt. That said, I don't
               | pay for my tokens at work. Is planning perhaps useful as
               | a way of reducing total token usage?
        
           | mjr00 wrote:
           | For a good senior, yes you get massive returns, which is why
           | those good seniors are in incredibly high demand right now.
           | 
           | For average to low-performing intermediates/seniors...
           | there's not much difference in output between them and a good
           | junior at this point. Claude really raised the skill floor
           | for software development.
        
             | fhd2 wrote:
             | My thinking is a bit different here: Seniors, even mediocre
             | ones, already learned a lot of hard lessons by doing things
             | pre-LLMs, even pre-SO. Those skills are valuable and I
             | don't know how to train them into juniors.
             | 
             | I find it easier to get a reasonably smart senior to use AI
             | in a good way, than to train a junior in what thinking to
             | do, and what to outsource, learning basics about good
             | design, robustness and risk analysis. The tools aren't the
             | problem per se, it's more about how people use them. Bit of
             | a slippery slope.
             | 
             | That's just my anecdotal experience from not a whole lot of
             | data though. I think the industry will figure it out once
             | things calm down a bit. Right now, I usually make the bet
             | to get one senior rather than two juniors. Quite different
             | to my strategy from a few years ago.
        
           | alfalfasprout wrote:
           | Yep. I've seen this personally. The ROI of a great engineer
           | is bigger than ever.
        
           | nfm wrote:
           | 100% this. AI is automating the code generation.
           | 
           | Being able to clearly describe a problem and work with the AI
           | to design a solution, prioritise what to put the AI to work
           | on, set up good harnesses so the quality of the output is
           | kept high, figure out what parallelises well and what's going
           | to set off agents that are stepping on each others toes...
           | all of this needs experience and judgement and delegation and
           | project organisation skills.
           | 
           | AI is supercharging tech leads. Beginners might be able to
           | skill up faster, but they're not getting the same results.
        
         | phendrenad2 wrote:
         | > Top candidates are commanding higher salaries than ever
         | 
         | I haven't found that to be true. Unless by "top candidates" you
         | mean people working at actual AI companies such as
         | Alphabet/Meta/OpenAI/Anthropic. If you're an AI-user and not an
         | AI scientist it's bad out there, even for senior+ developers
         | who previously worked in "FAANG".
        
         | yesb wrote:
         | Relating it to performance is just silly. Most companies barely
         | understand the performance of their employees much less
         | candidates. The market has shrunk but not catastrophically so.
         | Most people haven't been majorly affected but that doesn't mean
         | they're automatically the most deserving or best performing.
         | 
         | People with experience and/or credentials desired by companies
         | in areas of growth (i.e. AI) are always in high demand
        
           | johnnyanmac wrote:
           | >Most people haven't been majorly affected
           | 
           | Apparently it is over a third affected in my domain. Which is
           | crazy. Pretty much everyone in my immediate band has been hit
           | at some point. That that weren't were usually around 5-8
           | above me. So basically a different generational band
           | altogether.
        
           | jimbokun wrote:
           | > People with experience and/or credentials desired by
           | companies in areas of growth (i.e. AI) are always in high
           | demand
           | 
           | This is tautological.
        
             | lazyasciiart wrote:
             | No it isn't, because in the context of the comment it
             | should be read "people with experience and/or credentials
             | desired [...] are always in high demand " _regardless of
             | their actual performance level_.
        
         | serial_dev wrote:
         | I'm not sure it is just that, I don't even see positions listed
         | where I would like to work. For salary ranges, I see lower
         | upper limits than my second best offer three n half years ago.
         | Considering the high inflation, that's crazy.
         | 
         | I would not mind switching but 1. I don't see interesting
         | positions 2. they don't pay well, and only 3. they might not
         | even want me.
         | 
         | It might also be just my niche, but finding a good position
         | feels completely impossible for me.
         | 
         | I am doing cross platform mobile development and I'm wondering
         | how I could transition into backend development or I started
         | even considering the decentralized finance...
        
           | johnnyanmac wrote:
           | Yeah, I don't know if I'd call myself competent (I'm late
           | intermediate/early senior. So the worst of the curve here).
           | But there's a difference between "interviews have gotten a
           | lot harder now" and "I can't even get a response back". It's
           | far, far more in the latter.
           | 
           | My resume isn't bad on paper either. It's not FAANG coded,
           | but it's decent experience.
        
           | Aurornis wrote:
           | > than my second best offer three n half years ago
           | 
           | 3.5 years ago was peak ZIRP hiring craziness.
           | 
           | It wasn't a normal reference point.
        
         | lowkey_ wrote:
         | Agreed on the bimodal, but I don't think this is junior vs.
         | senior - I think it's just competence being rooted out.
         | 
         | The majority of engineers, in my hiring experience, failed very
         | simple tests pre-AI. In a world where anyone can code, they're
         | no better than previously non-technical people. The CS degree
         | is no longer protection.
         | 
         | The gap between average and the best engineers now, though, is
         | even higher. The best engineers can visualize the whole
         | architecture in their head, and describe exactly what they want
         | to an AI - their productivity is multiplied, and they rarely
         | get slowed down.
         | 
         | While this could be done by junior or senior, I think junior
         | usually has the slight advantage in being more AI-native and
         | knowing how to effectively prompt and work with AI, though not
         | always.
        
           | _alternator_ wrote:
           | Largely agree, with a bit of clarification. Junior devs can
           | indeed prompt better than some of the old timers, but the
           | blast radius of their inexperienced decisions is much higher.
           | High competence senior devs who embrace the new tools are
           | gonna crush it relative to juniors.
        
             | weatherlite wrote:
             | > Junior devs can indeed prompt better than some of the old
             | timers
             | 
             | I guess? I don't really see why that would be the case.
             | Being a senior is also about understanding the requirements
             | better and knowing how/what to test. I mean we're talking
             | about prompting text into a textarea, something I think
             | even an "old timer" can do pretty well.
        
               | llbbdd wrote:
               | I've seen a few people I would consider senior engineers,
               | good ones, who seem to have somewhat fallen for the
               | marketing if you look at the prompts they're using.
               | Closer to a magical "make it so" than "build the code to
               | meet this spec, that I wrote with the context of my
               | existing technical skills".
               | 
               | I'm not sure why junior engineers would be any better at
               | that though, unless it's just that they're approaching it
               | with less bias and reaping beginners luck.
        
             | zarzavat wrote:
             | It's like having an early/broken chess engine.
             | 
             | An amateur with a chess engine that blunders 10% of the
             | time will hardly play much better than if they didn't use
             | it. They might even play worse. Over the course of a game,
             | those small probabilities stack up to make a blunder a
             | certainty, and the amateur will not be able to distinguish
             | it from a good move.
             | 
             | However, an experienced player with the same broken engine
             | will easily beat even a grandmaster since they will be able
             | to recognise the blunder and ignore it.
             | 
             | I often find myself asking LLMs "but if you do X won't it
             | be broken because Y?". If you can't see the blunders and
             | use LLMs as slot machines then you're going to spend more
             | money in order to iterate slower.
        
           | jghn wrote:
           | I agree that what you're describing is the required skillset
           | now. But two things I've been unsure of are what that looks
           | like in terms of hiring to test for it, and for how long this
           | remains a moat at all.
           | 
           | So much of tech hiring cargo culting has been built up around
           | leetcode and other coding problems, puzzles, and more. We all
           | pay lip service to systems thinking and architecture, but I
           | question if even those are testing the correct things for the
           | modern era.
           | 
           | And then what happens in a year when the models can handle
           | that as well?
        
             | jimbokun wrote:
             | "And then what happens in a year when the models can handle
             | that as well?"
             | 
             | Either the machines exterminate us or we become glorified
             | pets.
             | 
             | Hope the AIs prefer us to cats (even though that's a long
             | shot).
        
               | plagiarist wrote:
               | There'll definitely be a niche for us, similar to how
               | people keep parrots as pets.
        
             | lowkey_ wrote:
             | I've put a lot of thought into hiring in this era, and what
             | I've personally found works the best is:
             | 
             | Let them use their preferred setup and AI to the full
             | extent they want, and evaluate their output and their
             | methodology. Ask questions of "why did you choose X over
             | Y", especially if you're skeptical, and see their
             | reasoning. Ask what they'd do next with more time.
             | 
             | It's clear when a candidate can build an entire working
             | product, end-to-end, in <1 day vs. someone who struggles to
             | create a bug-free MVP and would take a week for the
             | product.
             | 
             | In addition to the technical interview, hiring them on a
             | trial basis is the absolute best if possible.
             | 
             | Taste and technical understanding of goals and
             | implementation to reach those goals is the biggest
             | differentiator now. AI can handle all the code and syntax,
             | but it's not great at architecture yet - it defaults to
             | what's mid if not otherwise instructed.
        
               | jghn wrote:
               | I don't disagree per se, but these are more or less the
               | same tropes that we've seen over the last couple of
               | decades, no? Especially the "hiring them on a trial basis
               | is the absolute best if possible." part which has been an
               | ongoing debate here on HN since at least the early teens.
               | 
               | I do feel like there's something *different* about the
               | required skillset now, and it's not something that all
               | engineers have even experienced ones. But I can't put my
               | finger on what exactly it is. If I'm right though,
               | classic interview techniques won't select for it because
               | they never were intended to do so.
        
           | dakiol wrote:
           | > While this could be done by junior or senior, I think
           | junior usually has the slight advantage in being more AI-
           | native and knowing how to effectively prompt and work with
           | AI, though not always.
           | 
           | But juniors don't (usually) have the knowledge to assess if
           | what the AI has produced is ok or not. I agree that anybody
           | (junior or senior) can produce something with AI, the key
           | question is whether the same person has the skills to asses
           | (e.g., to ask the right questions) that the produced output
           | is what's needed. In my experience, junior + AI is just a
           | waste of money (tokens) and a nightmare to take
           | accountability for.
        
           | sam0x17 wrote:
           | I see it the opposite way actually with respect to the CS
           | degree. If you earned your CS degree (or any degree) before
           | 2022 or so, the value of that degree is going to grow and
           | grow and grow until the last few people who had to learn
           | before AI are dying out like the last COBOL developers
           | 
           | AI has fundamentally broken the education system in a way
           | that will take decades for it to fully recover. Even if we
           | figure out how to operate with AI properly in an educational
           | setting in such a way that learners actually still learn, the
           | damage from years of unqualified people earning degrees and
           | then entering academia is going to reverberate through the
           | next 50 years as those folks go on to teach...
        
             | kakacik wrote:
             | That's not something enthusiasts here and elsewhere want to
             | hear, that's pretty obvious also in this discussion. People
             | seems extremely polarized these days.
             | 
             | AI is either the next wheel or abysmal doom for future
             | generations. I see both and neither at the same time.
             | 
             | In corporate environment where navigating processes,
             | politics and other non-dev tasks takes _significantly_
             | longer than actual coding, AI is just a bit better google
             | search. And trust me, all these non-dev parts are still
             | growing and growing fast. Its useful, but not elevating
             | people beyond their true levels in any significant way (I
             | guess we can agree ie nr of lines produced per day ain 't a
             | good idea, rather some Dilbert-esque comic for Friday
             | afternoon).
        
             | jjmarr wrote:
             | > If you earned your CS degree (or any degree) before 2022
             | or so, the value of that degree is going to grow and grow
             | and grow
             | 
             | In my experience, target schools are the only universities
             | now that can make their assignments too hard for AI.
             | 
             | When my university tried that, the assignments were too
             | hard for students. So they gave up.
        
             | zeroCalories wrote:
             | We're now reaching the point where people have gone their
             | whole college education on AI, and I've noticed a huge rise
             | in the number of engineers that struggle to write basic
             | stuff by hand. I had someone tell me they forgot how to
             | append to a list in their chosen language, and couldn't
             | define a simple tree data structure with correct syntax.
             | This has made me very cautious about maintaining my fluency
             | in programming, and I'll usually turn off AI tools for a
             | good chunk of the day just to make sure I don't get too
             | rusty.
        
             | andai wrote:
             | "Those who can't, do..."
        
             | boomskats wrote:
             | What I think is disappearing is not so much the quality of
             | academic education, but the baptism by firehose that entry
             | level CS positions used to offer - where you had no choice
             | but learn how things actually work while having a safe
             | space to fail during a period in your career when
             | productivity expectations of you were minimal to none.
             | 
             | That time when you got to internalise through first hand
             | experience what good & bad look like is when you built the
             | skill/intuition that now differentiates competent LLM
             | wielding devs from the vibers. The problem is that
             | expectations of juniors are inevitably rising, and they
             | don't have the experience or confidence (or motivation) to
             | push back on the 'why don't you just AI' management
             | narrative, so are by default turning to rolling the dice to
             | meet those expectations. This is how we end up with a
             | generation of devs that truly don't understand the
             | technology they're deploying and imho this is the
             | boringdystopia / skynet future that we all need to defend
             | against.
             | 
             | I know it's probably been said a million times, but this
             | kinda feels like global warming, in that it's a problem
             | that we fundamentally will never be able to fix if we just
             | continue to chase short term profit & infinite growth.
        
               | sam0x17 wrote:
               | > What I think is disappearing is not so much the quality
               | of academic education, but the baptism by firehose that
               | entry level CS positions used to offer - where you had no
               | choice but learn how things actually work while having a
               | safe space to fail during a period in your career when
               | productivity expectations of you were minimal to none
               | 
               | I would say that baptism by fire _is_ where the quality
               | of an academic education comes from, historically at
               | least. They are the same picture.
        
             | 9wzYQbTYsAIc wrote:
             | That's an insight that a project I'm working on has built
             | upon: https://unratified.org/connection/ai/higher-order-
             | effects/#1...
             | 
             | Education and training and entry level work build
             | judgement.
        
           | jimbokun wrote:
           | I was skeptical but I'm really starting to see the
           | productivity benefits now.
           | 
           | I very much follow the pattern of having the whole
           | architecture in my head and describe it to the AI which
           | generates the appropriate code. So now the bottlenecks are
           | all process related: availability of people to review my PRs,
           | security sign offs on new development, waiting on CI builds
           | and deployments, stakeholder validation, etc. etc.
        
           | vict7 wrote:
           | Could you provide an example of your "very simple tests" ?
        
           | weatherlite wrote:
           | > The majority of engineers, in my hiring experience, failed
           | very simple tests pre-AI
           | 
           | Did you consider tech whiteboard / leetcode interviews are
           | unnatural stressful environments ? Have you gone through a
           | mid/difficult technical appraisal yourself lately ? Try it
           | out just to get an idea how it feels on the other side...
        
             | raw_anon_1111 wrote:
             | Simple: don't do that.
             | 
             | It's been well over a decade that I've had to do the coding
             | interview monkey dance and I actually turned down an offer
             | where I did pass a coding interview because I found it
             | insulting and took a job for slightly less money where the
             | new to the company director was interested in a more
             | strategic hire (2016). That was the same thing that
             | happened before in 2014 and after in 2018 - a new
             | manager/director/CTO looking for a strategic hire.
             | 
             | In fact even my job at BigTech -AWS ProServe (full time
             | blue badge RSU earning employee) as a customer facing
             | consultant specializing in app dev was all behavioral as
             | well as my next full time job as a staff consultant in
             | 2023.
             | 
             | I'm 51 years old and was 40 in 2014. If I'm still trying to
             | compete based on my ability to reverse a b tree on the
             | whiteboard even at 40, I have made some horrible life
             | decisions.
             | 
             | (Well actually I did make a horrible life decision staying
             | at my second job too long until 2008 and becoming an expert
             | beginner. But that's another story)
        
               | SoftTalker wrote:
               | > ability to reverse a b tree on the whiteboard
               | 
               | I can never get over how this became a thing. Was
               | listening to a Brian Cox video on YouTube the other night
               | (something about his voice helps me sleep). He said "I
               | don't memorize formulas, it's easy to look them up."
               | 
               | If you ever need to reverse a b tree (in 30+ years of
               | writing code, I never have) it's easy to look that up. It
               | tells me nothing about your ability as a developer of
               | real software that you spent time memorizing trivia
               | before an interview.
        
               | zeroCalories wrote:
               | Being able to reverse a binary tree isn't something you
               | need to memorize. If you can't do that it tells me that
               | you're not fluent in your chosen programming language.
        
               | organsnyder wrote:
               | I had an interview where I was asked to implement a data
               | structure. I transparently told the interviewer I hadn't
               | thought about that particular data structure since
               | university, and that I was looking it up on Wikipedia to
               | see how it worked before I wrote the implementation. I
               | got that job.
        
               | andai wrote:
               | I'd always heard inverting a binary tree thrown around as
               | some kind of absurdly hard problem. I took a look at it
               | and it was trivial. I was able to do it on the first
               | attempt with no preparation. (And the point of these
               | interviews is that you study for them, right?)
               | 
               | It's a contrived scenario, but the whole point is that it
               | measures min(a,b) where `a` is your ability to think, and
               | `b` is your ability to prepare (and memorize answers
               | ahead of time). (I'd personally try to find ways to
               | measure `a` instead of `b`, maybe by asking questions
               | people wouldn't have heard before.)
        
             | dolebirchwood wrote:
             | > mid/difficult
             | 
             | You're assuming the question has to even be that difficult.
             | I've proctored sessions for senior-level webdev roles where
             | the questions were akin to "baby's first React component"
             | -- write a component that updates a counter when you click
             | a button. So many candidates (who purported to be working
             | with React for years) would fail, abysmally. Not like they
             | were just making small mistakes; I didn't even care about
             | best practices -- they just needed to make it work. So many
             | failed. Lot of frauds out there.
        
               | xeromal wrote:
               | I think some of this is probably attributed to being
               | maintenance devs who don't build a lot of greenfield
               | stuff. I got this way in one of my past jobs. I think us
               | as devs really need to practice creating things from
               | scratch from time to time. Working out those kinks is a
               | good skill (less with AI) but also good practice for
               | those baby components you'd need to make in an interview.
        
               | zeroCalories wrote:
               | TBH I'm like that, but how hard could writing a React
               | component be? I'm not even a React programmer but I can
               | probably write working code on a whiteboard.
        
               | dolebirchwood wrote:
               | The best candidates would have that question wrapped up
               | in 5 minutes. Like they're not even having to think about
               | it, which is honestly all I cared about testing for -- do
               | something really easy really fast so I know you're not
               | BSing me, and then we can move on to just having a
               | conversation about your past experience.
               | 
               | One of the worst guys took 20 minutes, with me having to
               | coach him through it the entire time. It was a true
               | exercise in patience, but I don't mind helping people
               | learn new things. When he got his rejection email, he
               | actually complained to the recruiter because he thought
               | he did really well. Dude...
        
               | sbrother wrote:
               | My version of fizzbuzz (I'm in backend/ML/NLP) is
               | counting how many times each word appears in a string.
               | Literally `return Counter(text.lower().split())` but it's
               | totally fine if you want to do it in a for loop or
               | whatever, as long as you can fluently write an incredibly
               | simple function.
               | 
               | Half of the people I screen fail it. It's crazy.
        
               | ryandrake wrote:
               | When I did tech interviews, I used to think I could just
               | jump right in with an intermediate level question and go
               | from there. But the reality is that most of the
               | candidates I interviewed couldn't even answer a trivial
               | question that just required a basic for-loop with an if-
               | statement inside it. These are not pressure-cooker
               | interviews where they need to balance a binary tree while
               | having Baby Shark blasted at them on full volume. These
               | are chill interviews where I ask them to iterate through
               | a string and tell me where the first "x" character is.
               | 
               | There are so many software engineering candidates who
               | literally cannot write the simplest code. I even had
               | someone actually say "I don't really write code at my
               | current job, I'm more of a thought leader." Bzzzzzt.
               | 
               | I've always prepared what I called level 1, level 2, and
               | level 3 questions ready for candidates. But, I almost
               | never even got to level 2, and never in 20 years of
               | interviewing got to my level 3 questions.
        
               | jghn wrote:
               | I always wonder when people tell these stories exactly
               | what the metric is.
               | 
               | I've been around the block for over 3 decades. I've had a
               | number of high level positions across both IC and
               | management tracks. These days I'm very hands on keyboard
               | across a number of clients. If you asked me to write a
               | basic for loop or if statement, there's a small chance
               | I'd flub the exact syntax if writing on a whiteboard.
               | Both because I bounce between languages all day and wires
               | get crossed on the fly, but also the standard interview
               | pressure type arguments. Whereas if the test is "does
               | this person understand what a for loop is and how it
               | works?", then yes, I can easily demonstrate I do.
               | 
               | In real life I'm not going to take an interview where
               | there's not already that degree of trust so if that
               | questions comes up something is already wrong. But I'm
               | sure there are interviewers in the world who'd fail
               | someone for that.
        
               | nottorp wrote:
               | There's the old Joel theory that the good programmers
               | don't apply for jobs because they just get invited...
        
               | andai wrote:
               | >You're assuming the question has to even be that
               | difficult
               | 
               | https://blog.codinghorror.com/why-cant-programmers-
               | program/
               | 
               | Most interviewees failed fizzbuzz, and that was 20 years
               | ago.
        
             | naet wrote:
             | I used to do online interviews with full access to Google
             | or any online resource (so long as you shared your screen
             | and I could see). Use your own code editor, no penalty at
             | all for searching up syntax or anything else.
             | 
             | I always asked a simple question like here is an array full
             | of objects. Please filter out any objects where the "age"
             | property is less than 20, or the "eye color" property is
             | red or blue. It was meant more as a sanity check that this
             | person can do basic programming than anything else.
             | 
             | Tons and tons of people failed to make basically any
             | progress, much less solve the problem, despite saying that
             | they worked programming day to day in that language. For a
             | mid level role I would filter out a good 8 or 9 out of ten
             | applicants with it.
             | 
             | I would consider it a non-leetcode type of question since
             | it did not require any algorithm tricks or any optimization
             | in time/space.
             | 
             | Nowadays that kind of question is trivial for AI so it
             | doesn't seem like the best test. I'm not hiring right
             | now,.but when I do I'm not sure what I will ask.
        
           | post-it wrote:
           | > The best engineers can visualize the whole architecture in
           | their head, and describe exactly what they want to an AI
           | 
           | I think this must be part of it. I see so many posts about
           | people burning a thousand dollars in AI credits building a
           | small app, and I have no idea why. I use the $20 Claude plan
           | and I rarely run out of usage, and I make all kinds of
           | things. I just describe what I want, do a few back-and-forths
           | of writing out the architecture, and Claude does it.
           | 
           | I think the folks burning thousands of dollars of credits are
           | unable to describe what they want.
        
           | paulmist wrote:
           | > The best engineers can visualize the whole architecture in
           | their head, and describe exactly what they want to an AI
           | 
           | I'd go a step further and say the engineers who, unprompted,
           | discover requirements and discuss their own designs with
           | others have an even better time. You need to effectively
           | communicate your thoughts to coding agents, but perhaps more
           | crucially you need to fit your ever-growing backyard of
           | responsibilities into the larger picture. Being that bridge
           | requires a great level of confidence and clear-headedness and
           | will be increasingly valued.
        
           | hnthrow0287345 wrote:
           | This stupid industry doesn't have the wherewithal to actually
           | make a good credential and training process like medicine and
           | law, and instead lets everyone come up with their own process
           | to vet people. We could even do it as an apprenticeship
           | model, not like that hasn't served humanity throughout the
           | ages.
           | 
           | I should have a credential I have to maintain every few
           | years, one or two interviews, and that should get me a job.
        
           | empath75 wrote:
           | I have found in the last 3 months that there are two clear
           | tiers of developers in the company I work at, the ones that
           | can code with AI and the ones that can't, and the ones that
           | can't are all going to be unemployed in 6 months.
           | 
           | We have a lot of people where if you gave them clear
           | requirements, they could knock out features and they were
           | useful for that, but I have an army of agents that can do
           | that now for pennies. We don't need that any more. We need
           | people who have product vision and systems design and
           | software engineering skills. I literally don't even care if
           | they can code with any competency.
           | 
           | Btw, if you think that copying and pasting a jira ticket into
           | claude is a skill that people are going to pay you for, that
           | is also wrong. You need to not just be able to use AI to
           | code, you need to be able to do it _at scale_. You need to be
           | able to manage and orchestrate fleets of ai agents writing
           | code.
        
           | tcgv wrote:
           | Makes sense. You just reminded me of the article "Why Can't
           | Programmers... Program?" [1].
           | 
           | Before gen AI, I used to give candidates at my company a
           | quick one-hour remote screening test with a couple of random
           | "FizzBuzz"-style questions. I would usually paraphrase the
           | question so a simple Google search would not immediately
           | surface the answer, and 80% of candidates failed at coding a
           | working solution, which was very much in line with the
           | article. Post gen AI, that test effectively dropped to a 0%
           | failure rate, so we changed our selection process.
           | 
           | [1] https://blog.codinghorror.com/why-cant-programmers-
           | program/
        
         | Eridrus wrote:
         | > they're just as capable as using AI as anyone
         | 
         | They're just as capable of typing prompts into AI, but what
         | they don't have is good judgement of what good work/code looks
         | like, so what's the point of asking a junior engineer to do
         | something vs asking the LLM directly?
        
           | alienbaby wrote:
           | The junior engineer will become a senior. An llm wont. For
           | now, anyway.
        
           | cucumber3732842 wrote:
           | Because a lot of stuff doesn't need to be good it needs to be
           | done.
           | 
           | Nobody is gonna lose money because some script that generates
           | yaml for the build process every hour nested three loops
           | instead of two. Intern, AI, junior dev, junior dev telling an
           | intern how to use AI, doesn't matter. If it works for the
           | week it'll work for the decade. If someone needs to pick it
           | apart and fix something in a year it'll either take no time
           | because they know enough to do it easily or it'll be a good
           | low stakes learning exercise for a junior.
           | 
           | Everyone wants to think their stuff is important but 99.9% of
           | code is low stakes support code either in applications or in
           | infrastructure around them.
        
         | ex-aws-dude wrote:
         | I don't think that's true
         | 
         | If intermediates were being pushed out they would just take
         | junior roles to have something
         | 
         | Companies really don't like hiring Juniors in general
        
         | soperj wrote:
         | > just as capable as using AI as anyone
         | 
         | This is probably the dumbest take I've heard of. They're the
         | most likely to make mistakes with AI because they don't know
         | the pitfalls of what they're doing.
        
         | crystal_revenge wrote:
         | I generally tend to interview every year to see what's out
         | there in the world (sometimes I find something worth switching
         | for, other times not). I'm not even looking very hard but have
         | had 4 interviews in the last month.
         | 
         | Personally I think it's a bit more nuanced than senior vs
         | junior (though it is very hard for juniors right now). What
         | I've seen a lot of hunger for is people with a track record of
         | getting their hands dirty and getting things solved. I'm very
         | much a "builder" type dev that has more fun going from 0-v1
         | than maintaining and expanding scalable, large systems.
         | 
         | From the early start of the last tech boom through the post-
         | pandemic hiring craze I increasingly saw demand for people who
         | where in the latter category and fit nicely in a box. The
         | ability to "do what you must to get this shipped" was less in
         | demand. People cared _much_ more about leetcode performance
         | than an impressive portfolio.
         | 
         | Now reminds me _a lot_ of 2008 in terms of the job market and
         | what companies are looking for. 2008-2012 a strong portfolio of
         | projects was the signal most people looked for. Back then being
         | an OSS dev was a _big_ plus (I found it not infrequently to be
         | a liability in the last decade, better to study leetcode than
         | actually build something).
         | 
         | Honestly, a lot of senior devs lose this ability over time.
         | They get comfortable with the idea that as a very senior hire
         | you don't have to _do_ all that annoying stuff anymore. But the
         | teams I see hiring are really focused on staying lean and
         | getting engineers how are comfortable wearing multiple hats and
         | working hard to get things shipped.
        
           | sanufar wrote:
           | In your experience, what's the best way to increase signal? I
           | feel as though a lot of devs struggle with the initial
           | process of getting past screening, drawing attention to
           | projects, etc.
        
             | Aurornis wrote:
             | Not the parent commenter but I've performed a lot of resume
             | reviews for people and also done a lot of hiring.
             | 
             | Most resumes are not very good. Beyond the obvious problems
             | like typos, there is a lot of bad advice on the internet
             | that turns resumes into useless noise. Screen a lot of
             | resumes and you'll get tired of seeing "Boosted revenue by
             | 23% by decreasing deploy times by 64%." This communicates
             | nothing useful and we all know that revenue going up 23%
             | YoY was not attributable to this single programmer doing
             | anything at all.
             | 
             | Often I'll get candidates into interviews and they light up
             | telling me about impressive things they did at a past job
             | with enough detail to convince me they know the subject,
             | but their resumes are garbage because they've followed too
             | many influencers.
             | 
             | So try to work on your resume first. Try different resumes.
             | Rewrite it and see what makes interviewers take notice and
             | what they ignore. The most common mistake is to write a
             | resume once and then spam it to 100 jobs. I know it's not
             | fun to change the resume or invest time into applying for a
             | job that may not respond, but you know what else isn't fun?
             | Applying to 100 jobs and not getting any responses because
             | every hiring manager has 20 tailored resumes in their inbox
             | ahead of yours.
             | 
             | Having a simple but clear LinkedIn profile helps. Many
             | scoff at this, but it works. You don't have to read
             | LinkedIn's social media feed or do anything with the site.
             | Just set it up and leave it for them to find.
             | 
             | GitHub portfolios and other things have low relative value
             | at _most_ companies. There are some exceptions where
             | someone will look at it and it might tip the balance in
             | your favor, but it 's a small optimization. You need to be
             | perfect the resume first, get a LinkedIn that looks decent
             | second, and only then think about the ancillary things.
        
               | Gigachad wrote:
               | At least in my experience, applying at jobs online has
               | been entirely useless for the last 5 years. No company
               | ever contacts you after using the online application
               | forms. And the only way I've got interviews is from
               | recruiters contacting me.
        
               | robryan wrote:
               | My experience recently was something like 2/3 from
               | referrals (the third I think will eventually get back to
               | me but way too slow), and something like 3/10 from cold
               | applications. Obviously big differences depending on
               | location and experience but I was pleasantly surprised
               | that some of the cold applications went somewhere.
        
               | jdwithit wrote:
               | As someone applying right now I agree. I think I've had
               | _one_ company out of dozens get back to me on a cold
               | application this year. Every contact that has led to an
               | interview was from being referred in by a current
               | employee, or a LinkedIn recruiter reaching out to me
               | about a job. I assume the application forms get spammed
               | with hundreds if not thousands of applicants. It 's hard
               | to blame someone for not wanting to sift through all that
               | muck when there's already a stream of vetted candidates
               | coming in from their recruiter. Sucks for the job
               | seekers, though.
               | 
               | I'm putting more time into cleaning up my LinkedIn
               | profile since that's been my most reliable route into
               | hiring pipelines (other than referrals and networking).
        
               | Gigachad wrote:
               | I assume online forms are spammed with thousands of AI
               | generated resumes now. The only reason I apply is it
               | seems to flag your account as active which triggers
               | recruiters to contact me.
        
               | ryandrake wrote:
               | > Screen a lot of resumes and you'll get tired of seeing
               | "Boosted revenue by 23% by decreasing deploy times by
               | 64%." This communicates nothing useful and we all know
               | that revenue going up 23% YoY was not attributable to
               | this single programmer doing anything at all.
               | 
               | This is the "quantify everything" mantra career coaches
               | have been repeating for decades. As the story goes, no
               | company is going to care that you refactored the FooBar
               | library in order to make bugs in the DingDang module
               | easier to fix. You have to only write down things that
               | moved some quantifiable business needle like revenue or
               | signups, even if the link to that needle is tenuous.
               | Obviously, this ends up penalizing hard working, talented
               | devs who don't happen to be working in areas where wins
               | are easily quantifiable.
        
               | Aurornis wrote:
               | Some quantification is very helpful. We're going to have
               | a very different conversation if the architecture you
               | built was serving 1 million users as opposed to 1000
               | customers.
               | 
               | It's the useless quantification that turns resumes into
               | noise, combined with making claims that you changed
               | revenue by yourself.
               | 
               | > You have to only write down things that moved some
               | quantifiable business needle like revenue or signups,
               | even if the link to that needle is tenuous. Obviously,
               | this ends up penalizing hard working, talented devs who
               | don't happen to be working in areas where wins are easily
               | quantifiable.
               | 
               | Every hiring manager knows this game and sees right
               | through it. You can't read 1000 resumes with claims of
               | "Increased revenue by 13% by" followed by something that
               | clearly was not the reason revenue increased 13% to
               | become numb to it.
               | 
               | Nobody believes these.
               | 
               | The somewhat useful quantifications are things like
               | "Reduced cloud spend by 50% by implementing caching".
               | This can spark a conversation about how they diagnosed
               | they issue, made a transition plan, ensured it was
               | working, and all of the other things we want to hear
               | about.
        
               | shagie wrote:
               | > Most resumes are not very good. Beyond the obvious
               | problems like typos ...
               | 
               | This is a person who you're going to be reviewing their
               | code or reading the documentation that they write.
               | 
               | If there are typos and poor formatting in the resume
               | (that they've had the leisure of reviewing themselves and
               | correcting), what does this say about the quality of the
               | code the code or documentation that they're going to
               | write when under a time constraint?
               | 
               | Are you going to be faced with the decision of having
               | code with variables that have spelling errors and
               | documentation that is grammatically or factually
               | incorrect go through because of the time pressure?
               | 
               | The resume itself is a demonstration of the applicant's
               | ability to pay attention to the details that matter in
               | software development without showing a single line of
               | NDAed code.
        
           | overfeed wrote:
           | > I'm not even looking very hard but have had 4 interviews in
           | the last month.
           | 
           | How many offers did you receive? Companies have also adopted
           | your strategy: interviewing candidates "to see what's out
           | there" - there's a job I interviewed for that's still open
           | after 10 months.
        
             | Aurornis wrote:
             | > Companies have also adopted your strategy: interviewing
             | candidates "to see what's out there" - there's a job I've
             | interviewed for that's still open after 10 months
             | 
             | When I was doing a lot of hiring we wouldn't take the job
             | posting down until we were done hiring people with that
             | title.
             | 
             | It made a couple people furious because they assumed we
             | were going to take the job posting down when we hired
             | someone and then re-post a new listing for the next person.
             | 
             | One guy was even stalking LinkedIn to try to identify who
             | was hired, without realizing that many engineers don't
             | update their LinkedIn. Got some angry e-mails. There are
             | some scary applicants out there.
             | 
             | Some times a specific job opening needs to stay open for a
             | long time to hire the right person, though. I can recall
             | some specific job listings we had open for years because
             | none of the people we interviewed really had the specific
             | experience we needed (though many falsely claimed it in
             | their applications, right until we began asking questions)
        
               | fullofideas wrote:
               | Honest question. Were these super specialized roles with
               | such specific skill requirements that it took such a long
               | time to find the right person? Looking back, do you think
               | the team would have been better off hiring someone who
               | came close enough, and supporting them to learn on the
               | job?
        
               | Aurornis wrote:
               | > Looking back, do you think the team would have been
               | better off hiring someone who came close enough, and
               | supporting them to learn on the job?
               | 
               | More specialized.
               | 
               | If we wanted to train someone, we'd start with an
               | internal candidate who was familiar with the other parts
               | of the job and then train them on this one thing.
               | 
               | Hiring an outsider who doesn't know the subject matter
               | and then teaching them is less efficient and more risky.
               | It was better to have someone in the team learn the new
               | subject as an incremental step and then backfill the
               | simpler work they were doing.
        
               | coliveira wrote:
               | > some specific job listings we had open for years
               | 
               | If you need to wait YEARS to hire someone with some
               | specific experience, I can guarantee that you really
               | didn't need that person. You're doing this just to check
               | some specific artificial goal that has little to do with
               | the business.
        
               | Aurornis wrote:
               | > If you need to wait YEARS to hire someone with some
               | specific experience, I can guarantee that you really
               | didn't need that person.
               | 
               | I've worked in specialized fields where it takes YEARS
               | for the right candidate to even start looking for jobs.
               | You need to have the job listings up and ready.
               | 
               | This was extremely true when we were working on things
               | that could not be done remote (literal physical devices
               | that had to be worked on with special equipment in
               | office).
               | 
               | Engineers aren't interchangeable cogs.
               | 
               | > I can guarantee that you really didn't need that
               | person.
               | 
               | So what? There are many roles where we don't "need"
               | someone, but if the right person is out there looking for
               | a job we want to be ready to hire them.
        
               | bluefirebrand wrote:
               | > I've worked in specialized fields where it takes YEARS
               | for the right candidate to even start looking for jobs.
               | You need to have the job listings up and ready
               | 
               | If this is true then those shouldn't even be public job
               | postings. That sort of critical position is for
               | headhunters
        
               | Aurornis wrote:
               | > If this is true then those shouldn't even be public job
               | postings.
               | 
               | Why? Not everyone is on LinkedIn or has an updated
               | profile.
               | 
               | Some of the best candidates I've hired were people who
               | were in other states who were planning to move, but
               | waiting for the right job opportunity to come up.
               | 
               | We also used recruiters.
               | 
               | Why does it make people so angry that we posted job
               | listings for real jobs that we were really hiring for?
        
               | bluefirebrand wrote:
               | If your real candidate pool is so small that you're
               | effectively targeting a handful of people worldwide then
               | you aren't "really hiring"
        
               | Aurornis wrote:
               | Yet somehow we really did hire people.
               | 
               | If only we had listened to HN comments and given up
               | instead
        
               | Tangurena2 wrote:
               | Or... your company should be training potential
               | replacements. This is what the US military and "white
               | shoe" consulting companies do. While expensive, it
               | guarantees that critically needed skilled staff are
               | always available.
               | 
               | I recommend the article _" Up or Out: Solving the IT
               | Turnover Crisis"_ [0] which gives a reasonable argument
               | for doing exactly that.
               | 
               | Notes:
               | 
               | 0 - https://thedailywtf.com/articles/up-or-out-solving-
               | the-it-tu...
        
               | conductr wrote:
               | So what did you do when those devices broke for years
               | while you had no local/physical person on site? You
               | either didn't need to employ the person bad enough or
               | didn't need the devices to function bad enough.
               | 
               | Engineers aren't cogs, but they are able to travel and
               | you can hire them by other means that full-time
               | employment. So I suspect that was probably what you were
               | meant to do for your situation.
               | 
               | Nothing about this was mission critical or even all that
               | important or you would have found a way to solve the
               | problem or you did and it wasn't a problem to begin with.
               | I'm in a field where people often want to hire me for
               | some special thing like this, but it often turns out,
               | most of my life would be spent idle because no one
               | company has enough demand for me. I can consult instead
               | and be busy all year, or I can take a job for someone
               | that's OK with me being idle for 80% of my time. I prefer
               | the former for multiple reasons but just making an
               | example of why hiring for specialized roles that aren't
               | mission critical is often not the thing you should be
               | doing.
        
               | Aurornis wrote:
               | > So what did you do when those devices broke for years
               | while you had no local/physical person on site? You
               | either didn't need to employ the person bad enough or
               | didn't need the devices to function bad enough.
               | 
               | I don't know why you assumed that. We had teams. We just
               | wanted to grow them.
               | 
               | We weren't sitting there waiting.
        
               | conductr wrote:
               | It's implied by you wanting more people, that you had
               | more demand than could be fulfilled. Even if you have
               | teams, it stands to reason that the device repair would
               | have been running into backlog territory that had
               | negative implications of some sort. If not, why hire?
        
               | Aurornis wrote:
               | > it stands to reason that the device repair would have
               | been running into backlog territory that had negative
               | implications of some sort. If not, why hire?
               | 
               | I don't know where you're getting these ideas. We weren't
               | hiring people to repair a backlog of devices. Warranty
               | and repair work typically goes to the contract
               | manufacturer, for what it's worth.
               | 
               | Companies like to grow and develop more products. You
               | need more people.
        
               | conductr wrote:
               | Exactly. Hire someone 80-90% there and invest in their
               | training FFS.
        
               | Aurornis wrote:
               | Answered elsewhere: If we're investing in someone's
               | training we'll promote someone from within who is already
               | familiar with the product and then backfill their simpler
               | work.
        
               | conductr wrote:
               | So you had a talent pipeline, you just didn't like how
               | hands on it was or how it took time to develop. We'd all
               | prefer a magical unicorn applicant that checks every box
               | but it's never possible especially the more you're
               | required to know about specifics that are best learned
               | internally to begin with. The whole hiring angle you
               | describe seems silly in terms of process and expectations
        
               | Aurornis wrote:
               | > So you had a talent pipeline, you just didn't like how
               | hands on it was or how it took time to develop.
               | 
               | There's a lot of anger in this thread at companies for
               | making obvious choices.
               | 
               | If the perfect applicant happens to be looking for a job
               | and it can save us the time and churn of switching
               | someone internally, then yes: I would prefer to hire that
               | person.
               | 
               | > The whole hiring angle you describe seems silly in
               | terms of process and expectations
               | 
               | I think the silly part of this thread is all of comments
               | from people who think they know better how to operate a
               | company they know nothing about the people who were in
               | it.
        
               | brianleb wrote:
               | I have to say I appreciate your aplomb in these
               | responses. The whole thread is littered with shocking
               | (and unsurprising?) tech-bro overconfidence that they can
               | manage a situation they literally know nothing about
               | better than someone who's already done it. Cheers to you
               | and have a good weekend.
        
               | shagie wrote:
               | > There's a lot of anger in this thread at companies for
               | making obvious choices.
               | 
               | Elsecomment and on Reddit, you'll see the attitude that
               | their years of experience should be sufficient assurance
               | for their prospective employer that they can pick up
               | whatever other technologies are out there.
               | 
               | This is often coupled with the "you shouldn't need to
               | learn new things outside of your 9-5."
               | 
               | Here, you are presenting a situation where a company
               | would rather promote from within (counter job hopping
               | culture) and would penalize someone who is not learning
               | about new things that their current employer isn't using
               | in the hiring process.
               | 
               | ---
               | 
               | And you've mentioned it elsecomment too - it's about the
               | risk. A company hiring an individual who isn't familiar
               | with the technology and has not shown the ability to
               | learn new material is more risky a hire than one who is
               | either familiar with it professionally or has
               | demonstrated the ability to learn new technologies.
               | 
               | That runs counter to the idea of the "best" candidate
               | being the one who is most skilled but rather the "best"
               | candidate being the one that is the least risky of a
               | hire.
        
               | coliveira wrote:
               | You probably don't realize that there are several
               | thousands of people without a job who could work for a
               | company that is instead just "waiting years" to find an
               | imaginary worker. That's what people complain about. The
               | more companies think the way you do, the more useless
               | open positions are listed because companies will not hire
               | anyone unless it's the perfect candidate in their dreams.
        
               | alwa wrote:
               | Or, it's the kind of place or situation where it's not
               | about the job/role as some abstract commodity "function,"
               | it's about specialist > internal generalist > external
               | non-specialist.
               | 
               | "We're making do, but we're kind of figuring out X as we
               | go. That's working for now, but the problems keep getting
               | knottier as we grow and change--it works, but it's
               | expensive in terms of avoidable mistakes.
               | 
               | Nothing's on fire, but if we ever got the chance, we'd
               | value authentic expertise in this niche. But if it's just
               | 'I could probably figure that out,' we've already got
               | plenty of that internally."
               | 
               | Where a good hire ends up _helping_ those internal people
               | as they develop experience and expertise, and one that's
               | not right is worse than none at all.
        
               | majormajor wrote:
               | How do you know if someone is 80-90% there without having
               | the job posting for the profile up, and interviewing
               | candidates who come along?
               | 
               | That still takes a long time if random Senior Engineer X
               | who's looking on LinkedIn is only 10% of the way there
               | for what you'd need for a very specialized role.
        
               | majormajor wrote:
               | >If you need to wait YEARS to hire someone with some
               | specific experience, I can guarantee that you really
               | didn't need that person. You're doing this just to check
               | some specific artificial goal that has little to do with
               | the business.
               | 
               | There's a difference between "critically needing" and
               | "would benefit from."
               | 
               | If you can find the specialist who's done what you're
               | doing before at higher scale and help you avoid a lot of
               | pain, it's awesome. If not, you keep on keeping on. But
               | as long as you don't start spending too much on the
               | search for that candidate, it's best to keep the door
               | open.
        
               | coliveira wrote:
               | So this is not a job that you need to fill, it is a wish
               | you may have and that is mostly impractical. If you
               | really needed that person, you would go find them and pay
               | way more than they're making now or give them something
               | else they want to join immediately.
        
               | overfeed wrote:
               | > When I was doing a lot of hiring we wouldn't take the
               | job posting down until we were done hiring people with
               | that title
               | 
               | It's a small engineering org, allegedly head-hunting one
               | principal engineer for the whole org, so it's a single
               | opening. 10 months later they are still hunting for their
               | special snowflake.
               | 
               | > I can recall some specific job listings we had open for
               | years because none of the people we interviewed really
               | had the specific experience we needed
               | 
               | This is exactly what I mean. If you can go for years
               | without filling a role, it's non-essential , and are in
               | effect, "seeing what's out there". More and more
               | companies are getting very picky on mundane roles, such
               | as insisting on past experience in specific industries:
               | "Oh, your extensive experience in low-latency comms is in
               | telecoms? We prefer someone who's worked in TV broadcast,
               | using these niche standards specifically, even though
               | your knowledge is directly transferable. We don't want to
               | waste 5 days on training"
        
               | smelendez wrote:
               | You expect more nonessential roles and slower hiring in a
               | slower growing economy, especially if companies only hire
               | for full-time roles.
               | 
               | For example, your company might need a full-time network
               | admin once its network grows to a certain size and
               | complexity. You won't hit that level for three years but
               | you'd hire the perfect person now if you found them even
               | though they might be spending a lot of idle time
               | scrolling Hacker News for the first year or two. At 5x
               | the growth rate, you'd need that person within less than
               | a year, and you might be less picky about whether they
               | are coming from a TV or telecom shop.
        
               | volkl48 wrote:
               | I assume that this means you're sending out rejections
               | that include a mention of "we've hired someone else for
               | this role".
               | 
               | If your hiring model is hiring multiple people through
               | one posting, then you will probably get a lot fewer angry
               | ex-candidates being weird (because they think you've lied
               | to them since the posting is still up) by just sending
               | out rejections that don't say that and just get the
               | "we're no longer interested in you for this role" message
               | across.
               | 
               | Nicer/more corporate language for both, of course.
        
               | Aurornis wrote:
               | > I assume that this means you're sending out rejections
               | that include a mention of "we've hired someone else for
               | this role".
               | 
               | No, this isn't possible unless you delay rejections
               | letters until you hire someone.
               | 
               | We send letters as soon as the decision is made not to
               | continue with that candidate.
               | 
               | Honestly it would be cruel to string them along any
               | longer.
        
               | robryan wrote:
               | From applying places recently I'd much rather get these
               | fast. One company sent me them, the rest either reached
               | out or I never heard from them.
        
             | tylervigen wrote:
             | What a time to be alive: Companies post roles that don't
             | exist to interview candidates who don't plan to switch.
        
             | wnevets wrote:
             | I have to agree, getting tech interviews isn't a great
             | gauge of the job market.
        
             | robryan wrote:
             | As a candidate I don't mind doing a few highly speculative
             | interviews. After not interviewing for a while it is good
             | practice.
        
             | ge96 wrote:
             | I recently did an interview and a complaint I hear from the
             | interviewer and our own company, people (your competition)
             | reading from AI output.
        
             | mjr00 wrote:
             | > How many offers did you receive? Companies have also
             | adopted your strategy: interviewing candidates "to see
             | what's out there" - there's a job I interviewed for that's
             | still open after 10 months.
             | 
             | On the hiring side, at least in tech: interviewing really
             | sucks. It's a big time investment from multiple people (HR,
             | technical interviewers, managers, etc).
             | 
             | I'm not saying it's _impossible_ that companies are
             | interviewing for fun, but it seems _really_ unlikely to me
             | anyone would want to do interviews without seriously
             | intending to hire someone.
        
           | Aurornis wrote:
           | > Honestly, a lot of senior devs lose this ability over time.
           | They get comfortable with the idea that as a very senior hire
           | you don't have to do all that annoying stuff anymore.
           | 
           | A few years ago, when interest rates were 0% and companies
           | were hiring at an unsustainable rate, I got a lot of
           | criticism for cautioning engineers against non-coding roles.
           | I talked to a lot of people who dreamed of moving into pure
           | architect roles where they advised teams of more junior
           | engineers about what to build, but didn't get involved with
           | building or operating anything.
           | 
           | I haven't kept up with everyone but a lot of the people I
           | know who went that route are struggling now. The work is good
           | until a company decides to operate with leaner teams and
           | keeps the people committing code. The real difficulties start
           | when they have to interview at other companies after not
           | writing much code for 3 years. I'm in a big Slack for career
           | development where it's common for "Architect" and "Principal
           | Engineer" titled people to be venting about how they can't
           | get past the first round of interviews (before coding
           | challenges!) because they're trying to sell themselves as
           | architects without realizing that companies want hands-on
           | builders now.
        
             | Karrot_Kream wrote:
             | Yes when I saw this happen during the post COVID boom I was
             | honestly shocked. Engineers I knew who were fairly senior
             | thought that they could build the rest of their career in
             | just boxes and arrows on a board. The whole thing just made
             | me really dislike other Principal engineers.
             | 
             | I left to a startup where I write code and design
             | architecture. I even had a former coworker tell me "wow
             | you're willing to do stuff like that at this point in your
             | career?"
        
             | afavour wrote:
             | > The work is good until a company decides to operate with
             | leaner teams and keeps the people committing code.
             | 
             | I'm no AI booster but I think this is exact scenario where
             | AI-driven development is going to allow those non-coding
             | developers to shine. They still remember how code works
             | (and have probably still done PR review from time to time)
             | so they're well placed to write planning documents for an
             | AI agent and verify its output.
        
           | ambicapter wrote:
           | Shipping is only hard when you have to deal with all the
           | loose ends "builders" leave lying around.
        
             | Rapzid wrote:
             | Shippers gonna ship.
        
             | data-ottawa wrote:
             | To provide a different framing, I'm more of a builder and
             | I'm happy to maintain too. What I'm not happy with, and
             | have left jobs over, is being put into a box or becoming
             | overly siloed.
             | 
             | Large companies tend to over specialize and that's where I
             | see the "I'm a builder" types fall apart. That takes away
             | agency, lowers skills, and removes variety from work.
             | That's when it stops being fun to me.
             | 
             | I would hope most people with the builder architype are
             | otherwise fine to keep building and maintaining.
        
             | truncate wrote:
             | There is famous term for those: Tactical Tornados
             | 
             | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33394287
        
           | Forgeties79 wrote:
           | Hopefully it's not too much like 2008 and we end up with
           | another huge surge in unpaid internships
        
           | flatline wrote:
           | I, too, am able to get interviews. The last time I made a
           | serious search was in 2022-23, and companies were clearly
           | eager to hire at competitive rates. This past fall, they were
           | not. My salary requirements stopped at least two interview
           | processes when the question was raised. In other cases it was
           | not clear that the company was serious about moving forward
           | with hiring for the position at all. A three month search
           | ultimately came up dry, which is fine because I'm currently
           | employed, but I do not think the hiring landscape is
           | promising at all right now.
        
           | SirensOfTitan wrote:
           | I don't see this reality in the style of interview being
           | performed at all.
           | 
           | Everyone has seemingly adopted the FAANG playbook for
           | interviewing that doesn't really select for people who like
           | getting their hands dirty and building. These kinds of
           | interviews are compliance interviews: they're for people who
           | will put in the work to just pass the test.
           | 
           | There are so many interviews I've been in where if I don't
           | write the perfect solution on the first try, I'll get failed
           | on the interview. More than ever, I'm seeing interviewers
           | interrupt me during systems or coding interviews before I
           | have a chance to dig in. I've always seen a little bit of
           | this, but it seems like the bar is tightening, not on skill,
           | but on your ability to regurgitate the exact solution the
           | interviewer has in mind.
           | 
           | In the past I've always cold applied places and only
           | occasionally leaned on relationships. Now I'm only doing the
           | latter. Interviewees are asked to risk asymmetrically
           | compared to employers.
        
           | Xenoamorphous wrote:
           | > I'm very much a "builder" type dev that has more fun going
           | from 0-v1 than maintaining and expanding scalable, large
           | systems.
           | 
           | Most prefer a greenfield project.
        
             | mmcnl wrote:
             | I don't know, the majority of my colleagues have no idea
             | how to do anything in a greenfield environment. They need
             | guardrails.
        
           | layer8 wrote:
           | > I'm very much a "builder" type dev that has more fun going
           | from 0-v1 than maintaining and expanding scalable, large
           | systems.
           | 
           | Maintaining and expanding is more challenging, which is why
           | I've grown to prefer that. Greenfield and then leaving is too
           | easy, you don't learn the actually valuable lessons. As
           | experience shows that projects won't stay in the nice
           | greenfield world, building them can feel like doing illusory
           | work -- you know the real challenges are yet to come.
        
             | gtowey wrote:
             | Yup. You learn the most valuable information from watching
             | how things break and then fixing them.
             | 
             | It's kind of like when the FAA does crash investigation --
             | a stunning amount of engineering and process insights have
             | been generated by such work to the benefit of all of us.
        
               | toomuchtodo wrote:
               | "What kind of role are you looking for?"
               | 
               | "Technologist flavor of NTSB investigator."
        
               | hn_go_brrrrr wrote:
               | Sounds amazing.
        
               | eitally wrote:
               | There was a two year period around 2011-2013 where I
               | experimented with my dev team. We were being "forced" to
               | migrate a legacy enterprise system from .Net/MSSQL to
               | Java/PostgreSQL with replace the front end with a modern,
               | reactive web interface. Only two of the existing
               | developers had Java experience, and both were
               | conveniently senior engineers in two different offices
               | and running their own discrete sub-teams.
               | 
               | One of the guys had a very strong opinion that the ideal
               | architecture was something as abstracted and object
               | oriented as possible with single function classes, etc. I
               | let him run with that. The other guy got frustrated with
               | his sub-team's inability to write code to spec in a
               | language they'd never used before and where they were
               | trying to build some new features they didn't clearly
               | understand. He developed a strong feeling that TDD was
               | the most efficient path forward: he owns the PRD and
               | design, so he just created test stubs and told the remote
               | team to "just write code that passes the test" even if
               | they didn't understand the function of the block.
               | 
               | So, after a few months where did we end up:
               | 
               | 1. The "abstract everything" architect's team had an
               | extremely fragile and impossible to maintain codebase
               | because it was impossible for any outsider to tell what
               | was going on.
               | 
               | 2. The "just pass the damn tests" guy had a team that had
               | quickly ramped on a new language and they had a codebase
               | that was incomplete (because they were building it like a
               | Lego project) but that everyone could understand because
               | the code blocks generally stood on their own.
               | 
               | What was the next step: to shut down the guy who
               | abstracted everything and force him to drive a quick &
               | dirty rewrite that would be more maintainable, and to
               | also start a major refactoring of the "Lego" team's code
               | because it was so fragmented that it also was fragile and
               | unsuited for production.
               | 
               | I saw this as a terrific learning experience for all
               | involved and I was able to get away with it because the
               | stakes were pretty low and we had time to experiment
               | (part of the ultimate objective was upskilling the team),
               | but the more important lessons were these:
               | 
               | 1. Docs matter. Take the time to write clear & detailed
               | specs first because you'll be forced to think of edge
               | cases and functionality that you didn't originally, and
               | it provides a basis for system design, too.
               | 
               | 2. Architecture & design matter. Adhering too close to
               | any single paradigm is probably a mistake, but it takes
               | experience on the team to understand where the
               | compromises are and make the best decision _for that
               | system_.
               | 
               | That second point will not stop being true with the
               | advent of agentic assisted software development. Like
               | others have said, my expectation in the job market is
               | that pay will continue to be depressed for junior hires
               | as employers reset expectations and generally just want
               | folks who can instruct fleets of agents to do the actual
               | coding. Senior staff will become increasingly critical
               | and their jobs will be painful and difficult, because
               | it'll be assumed they can (and will be willing to) do
               | design & code reviews of artifacts originated by agents.
               | 
               | What I am going to be most interested in is what happens
               | in the SRE/Sysadmin world over the next few years as more
               | AI-generated code hits prod in organizations that don't
               | have adequate review & oversight functions.
        
               | jordanb wrote:
               | The nice thing about the "just pass the tests" approach
               | is you end up with something sufficiently abstracted that
               | it's easy to write tests for it.
        
               | afavour wrote:
               | I don't think they're mutually exclusive. You could just
               | as easily describe someone with bootstrapping experience
               | as being like an FAA crash investigator who investigates
               | take offs. You get to know exactly what works when moving
               | fast and looking for quick results, and what dooms a
               | short timeline to failure.
        
               | aeonfox wrote:
               | > You could just as easily describe someone with
               | bootstrapping experience as being like an FAA crash
               | investigator who investigates take offs.
               | 
               | Takeoff systems aren't analogous to prototype
               | development. I don't know you'd build a prototype plane
               | that's feasible to take to market, without having deep
               | knowledge about how planes are built.
               | 
               | Early design decisions matter. And you don't get to that
               | realisation without dealing with legacy systems where
               | some upstart made terrible decisions that you're now
               | responsible for.
        
               | detourdog wrote:
               | I was just thinking yesterday that knowing all the ways
               | something breaks and behaves is the key to understanding
               | systems.
        
               | crystal_revenge wrote:
               | > You learn the most valuable information from watching
               | how things break and then fixing them.
               | 
               | Trust me, you get plenty of experience in this as a
               | founding engineer in a startup.
               | 
               | Many of these comments make me wonder how many people
               | here have actually worked at an early stage startup in a
               | lead role. You learn a lot about what's maintainable and
               | scalable, what breaks and what doesn't, in the process
               | rapidly iterating on a product to find your market.
        
             | BoorishBears wrote:
             | This is unironically my favorite kind of HN comment: to say
             | something incredibly rude and/or condescending but wrap it
             | in the right kind of thoughtful language to qualify as HN
             | nice
             | 
             | The original punchline ("you don't learn the actually
             | valuable lessons.") was just a bit too sharp, so you even
             | edited in a psuedo-clarification which actually just
             | repeats that punchline but in a softer way, masterful!
        
               | MrDarcy wrote:
               | And yet it is correct. The most valuable engineers today
               | are those who have maintained and expanded the 0..v1 crap
               | from others, and are now driven and ambitious enough to
               | go build the next generation of 0..v1. Armed with that
               | experience, the crap is minimal and value maximized.
        
               | rustystump wrote:
               | Oof ima be the one to say it depends. This is personality
               | based and the truth is a successful product has both.
               | Even late on u want that person willing to break
               | convention to find a new way of doing something. Early u
               | need some seasoning in there too.
        
               | layer8 wrote:
               | My intention was actually to inspire others to maybe also
               | start preferring long-term/maintenance work, because I
               | feel there's a lack of enthusiasm for that.
               | 
               | Almost invariably after submitting, I see how I could
               | clarify and/or expand on my thoughts, so I often do end
               | up editing.
        
               | Karrot_Kream wrote:
               | This seems wrong? Like if you look at a collection of
               | open SWENG positions, _most_ of them are maintenance
               | roles at large companies. Greenfield software doesn 't
               | have the revenue needed to justify much headcount.
               | 
               | In my experience separating the roles out is silly if
               | you're an engineer yourself. We do this a lot and that
               | leads to silly mentalities. Greenfield developer vs
               | maintenance engineer, MVP engineer vs Big Tech dev, FOSS
               | hacker vs FOSS maintainer. Each of those dichotomies
               | speaks to cultural differences that we humans amplify for
               | no reason.
               | 
               | In truth the profession needs both and an engineer that
               | can do both is the most effective. The sharpest engineers
               | I've worked with over the years can hack new, greenfield
               | stuff and then go on to maintaining huge projects. Hell
               | Linus Torvalds started out by creating Linux from scratch
               | and now he's a steward of the kernel rather than an
               | author!
        
               | layer8 wrote:
               | I wasn't talking about segregating roles, but about
               | personal preference. People do tend to prefer building
               | new stuff over maintaining projects long-term, and I'd
               | like the scale to tip a bit on that. Linus is indeed a
               | good counterexample: He didn't leave Linux after 1.0 to
               | build the next new thing. But the latter is what
               | developers in practice often prefer doing.
        
               | shagie wrote:
               | > Almost invariably after submitting, I see how I could
               | clarify and/or expand on my thoughts, so I often do end
               | up editing.
               | 
               | One of the tricks of HN is the 'delay' setting.
               | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=231024
               | 
               | > There's a new field in your profile called delay. It's
               | the time delay in minutes between when you create a
               | comment and when it becomes visible to other people. I
               | added this so that when there are rss feeds for comments,
               | users can, if they want, have some time to edit them
               | before they go out in the feed. Many users edit comments
               | after posting them, so it would be bad if the first draft
               | always got shipped.
               | 
               | I've got mine set to 2. It gives me a little bit of time
               | for the "oh no, I need to fix things" or "I didn't mean
               | to say _that_ " and when everyone else can see it.
        
               | geraldwhen wrote:
               | Business bros will not pay high salaries to maintain
               | software. Software maintenance will always end in India
               | with developers making $20/hr. Or less.
               | 
               | AI makes it look like these developers can do the same
               | job the Americans did building the product to begin with.
               | Even if things fall apart in the end, it won't stop the
               | attempt to order of magnitude reduce the cost for
               | maintenance.
        
               | shimman wrote:
               | It's correct tho. If your entire career is nothing but
               | greenfield development, you'll never know the result of
               | your decisions or the impact of tech chosen.
               | 
               | Staff or principals that have a tenure of majority
               | greenfield development are extremely dangerous to
               | companies IMO. Especially if they get hired in a
               | nontraditional tech company, like utilities, banking, or
               | insurance.
        
               | BoorishBears wrote:
               | Your list is places that treat development as a cost
               | center, but greenfield-only devs don't want to touch that
               | work with a 10-foot pole.
               | 
               | And if your entire career is nothing maintenance and
               | sustaining projects, you'll never know what decisions it
               | takes to build a greenfield application that lives long
               | enough to become a graybeard.
               | 
               | You'll think you do because you see all the mistakes they
               | made, but you'll only have cynical reasons for why those
               | mistakes get made like "they don't care, they just make a
               | mess and move on to the next job" or "they don't bother
               | learning the tools/craft deeply enough moving, it's all
               | speed for them".
               | 
               | -
               | 
               | To indulge _myself_ in the niceness a bit: I don 't think
               | you write comments like the one above if you've done
               | both, yet having done both feels like an obvious
               | requirement to be a well-rounded Staff/Principal.
               | 
               | Most maintenance work suffers because of decisions made
               | at the 0 to 1 stage. And most greenfield work fails
               | entirely, never maturing to the maintenance stage.
               | 
               | So both sides have to do _something_ right in the face of
               | challenges unique to their side. And having familiarity
               | with both is extremely valuable for technical leadership.
        
               | Lammy wrote:
               | They're 100% correct, though.
        
               | BoorishBears wrote:
               | They're incorrect, and my reply to a sibling covers why
               | in detail.
               | 
               | But to reword it: if you think the reason 0 to 1 work is
               | typically a duct-taped mess is because of a lack of
               | experience or understanding from greenfield devs, you'll
               | probably fail at 0 to 1 work yourself.
               | 
               | Not that a noob developer great at selling has never
               | landed 0 to 1 work, crapped out a half working mess and
               | left with a newly padded resume... but maintenance work
               | is missing out on by far the most volatile and
               | unpredictable stage of a software project, with its own
               | hard lessons.
               | 
               | The duct-taped nature of 0 to 1 work is usually a result
               | of the intersection of fickle humans and software
               | engineering, not a lack of knowledge.
               | 
               | -
               | 
               | People in maintenance can do things like write new tests
               | against the production system to ensure behavior stays
               | the same... what happens when 1 quarter into a 2 quarter
               | project it turns out some "stakeholder" wasn't informed
               | and wants to make changes to the core business logic that
               | break half the invariants you designed the system around.
               | And then after that it turns out you can't do that, legal
               | pushed back. And then a few weeks later they came to an
               | agreement so now we want a bit of A and B?
               | 
               | Or you're in consumer and there's a new "must have"
               | feature for the space? Maybe you'd like to dismiss as
               | "trend chasing", but that'll just doom your project in
               | the market because it turns out following trends is a
               | requirement for people to look at everything else you've
               | built
               | 
               | Or worst of all, you know that quality engineering of the
               | system will take 8 weeks, and there's a hard deadline on
               | someone else's budget of 4 weeks, and you can of course
               | decline to ship it, but then you'll need a new job. (and
               | I know, you'll say "Gladly, I take pride in my
               | engineering!", but again, you're probably going to end up
               | maintaining a project that only survived by doing exactly
               | what you quit over)
               | 
               | tl;dr it's Yin and Yang: you can't have one without the
               | other, and you need to have a bit of the other side in
               | you whenever you're working in the capacity of either to
               | be a good technical leader.
        
             | crystal_revenge wrote:
             | Not sure what type of "greenfield" startup experience
             | you've had, but most of the work I'm talking about involves
             | solving problems that most people simply don't have the
             | combined skill set to solve. Typically problems that
             | involve a substantial amount of quantitative skills
             | combined with the ability to bring those solutions to prod.
             | 
             | Nearly all of the teams I've joined had problems _they_
             | didn 't know how to solve and often had no previously
             | established solution. My last gig involved exploring some
             | niche research problems in LLM space and leveraging the
             | results to get our first round of funding closed, this
             | involved learning new code bases, understanding the
             | research papers, and communicating the findings publicly in
             | an engaging way (all to typical startup style deadlines).
             | 
             | I agree with your remarks around "greenfield" if it just
             | involves setting up a CRUD webapp, but there is a wide
             | space of genuinely tricky problems to solve out there. I
             | recall a maintainer style coworker of mine, who describe
             | himself similar to what you are describing, telling me he
             | was terrified of the type of work I had to do because when
             | you started you didn't even know if there _was_ a solution.
             | 
             | I have equal respect for people such as myself and for
             | people that you describe, but I wouldn't say it is _more_
             | challenging, just a different kind of challenge. And I do
             | find the claim  "you don't learn the actually valuable
             | lessons" to be _wildly_ against my experience. I would say
             | most of my deep mathematical knowledge comes from having to
             | _really_ learn it to solve these problems, and more often
             | than not I 've had to pick up on an adjacent, but entirely
             | different field to get things done.
        
               | fsloth wrote:
               | FWIW this is the best kind of job ever for me as well:
               | 
               | "when you started you didn't even know if there was a
               | solution."
               | 
               | Regardless what the problem is - as long as I know
               | _nobody knows if there is a solution_ it's an instant
               | sugar rush.
               | 
               | You are free to bang your head against a stone wall for
               | months trying to crack the damn thing.
               | 
               | OFC you need to deliver in the end. And this requires
               | then ruthless "worse is better" mentality - ship
               | something - anything. Preferably a the smallest package
               | that can act as mvp that you know you can extend _if this
               | is the thing_ what people want.
               | 
               | Because that's the other side of the coin - if the
               | solution is not known - people are also not aware if the
               | solution has true value or if it is a guess.
               | 
               | So in any case you have to rush to the mvp.
               | 
               | Such joy!
               | 
               | Of course the mvp must land, and must be extensible.
               | 
               | But these type of MVP:s are not a slam dunk.
               | 
               | The combined requirement of a) must ship within limited
               | time b) nobody knows what _does_ require a certain
               | mindset.
        
               | in_cahoots wrote:
               | Interesting, this is a trap that I've seen multiple
               | senior hires fall into. In my experience "we have a
               | problem but no solution" often means (a) there actually
               | is a solution but it's too expensive to implement, (b)
               | there are organizational reasons why this problem exists
               | and a new hire doesn't have the experience or credibility
               | to navigate it or (c ) there is no solution to the
               | problem or the solution is very complex, and by the time
               | the new hire onboards, digs into the problem, and figures
               | it out their credibility is shot because everyone was
               | expecting the senior hire to figure it out in 90 days.
               | 
               | I've found new hires to be more successful when they
               | join, get some easy wins, and then find their own
               | problems to solve. But maybe it's just an artifact of
               | working at large companies where most of the day-to-day
               | stuff is figured out.
        
               | ua709 wrote:
               | I think you forgot
               | 
               | (d) although the initial statement seems credible, the
               | problem is actually ill defined and under specified and
               | therefore not solvable as originally stated.
               | 
               | Example: our start-up plans to "fix health care"
        
             | dainiusse wrote:
             | Everyone can do 0 to 1. Because delivery drives dopamine.
             | The it is the boring thing, but there comes experience to
             | find interest in that part
        
               | collingreen wrote:
               | This is news to me having watched many many many people
               | fail to do 0 to 1.
               | 
               | Maybe you're just a really really good engineer and
               | product thinking hybrid!
        
             | SecretDreams wrote:
             | Soooo agree. I've had to clean up the messes of people that
             | did the 0-1 in my field and going from 1-unconditionally
             | stable was a lot more work than the 0-1 part.
        
           | atherton94027 wrote:
           | > I'm not even looking very hard but have had 4 interviews in
           | the last month.
           | 
           | Did you get any offers yet? It seems the issue is not lack of
           | interviews but lack of offers. Many companies are looking for
           | a goldilocks candidate and are happy to pass on anything that
           | doesn't match their ideal candidate
        
             | jdwithit wrote:
             | I got laid off at the end of last year and am currently
             | interviewing for Staff+ DevOps/Platform Engineer type
             | roles. I definitely feel this. I've had a decent flow of
             | recruiter inquiries and had multiple companies go 2-3
             | rounds of interviews deep with me (not counting the initial
             | "do you have a pulse" recruiter screen calls). Then the
             | communication always seems to dry up and I'm left to wonder
             | what box I failed to check on their hiring rubric.
             | 
             | Semi related, holy hell do companies have a lot of
             | interview rounds these days. It seems pretty standard to
             | spread 5-6 Teams calls over the course of a month. I get
             | that these are high salary, high impact roles and you want
             | to get it right. But this feels really excessive. And I'm
             | not talking about FAANG tech giants here. It's everyone,
             | from startups to random midsize insurance companies.
        
             | ghaff wrote:
             | And a lot of it is networks as opposed to applying to a job
             | position. My last position--that I had for many years--was
             | reaching out to someone knew for not even a posted position
             | and having one created for me.
        
           | cucumber3732842 wrote:
           | >I generally tend to interview every year to see what's out
           | there in the world (sometimes I find something worth
           | switching for, other times not). I'm not even looking very
           | hard but have had 4 interviews in the last month.
           | 
           | You've been interviewing forever. You're the well practiced
           | pickup artist of job searching. Of course you'll be getting
           | the call backs over the other 1000 applicants who don't have
           | the same experience level applying. You "just know" how to
           | read between the lines and tailor a resume, whip up a cover
           | letter, etc whereas they're making mistakes.
        
           | ta9000 wrote:
           | Interviews are easy, offers are hard.
        
         | no_wizard wrote:
         | High performer is so subjective too.
         | 
         | You can be a great unblocker, team lead, and work well within
         | cross cutting areas and with interdepartmental stake holders,
         | have a history of strong technical performance.
         | 
         | and yet its nebulous if that means you're a high performer or
         | not to those hiring. It seems I'm seeing 'culture fit' as a
         | common reason people aren't getting hired again. That was out
         | of vogue for a good while.
        
           | bayarearefugee wrote:
           | In tech 'culture fit' is generally a dog whistle for ageism
           | in my experience.
        
             | no_wizard wrote:
             | I also think its being used to filter out people that
             | aren't basically a mirror for the interviewers in many
             | instances.
             | 
             | I've noticed a huge tightening of the rope around that sort
             | of thing.
             | 
             | I can't tell you how many times I've passed all the tests,
             | all the interview things, get to the final round with the
             | team and the rejection email comes in despite having good
             | conversations. By all accounts, I believe any person would
             | say the interview went well.
             | 
             | my peers are reporting the same things.
        
               | ptrrrrrrppr wrote:
               | Other angle: often interview with candidate A goes well,
               | but then you meet candidate B who is comparable but wants
               | less money. From my experience that happens more often
               | now, as there are more people who are desperate and
               | willing to lower their salary expectations to a level
               | that I wouldn't consider reasonable few years ago.
        
               | mjr00 wrote:
               | I have hired a lot of people and I have never seen a
               | situation where candidate A and B are both within the
               | target salary band but one was chosen because they were
               | cheaper. You'd always choose the one that was better. I
               | can only see a slightly lower expected salary being a
               | factor at extremely early stage startups with very little
               | funding.
        
         | doctorpangloss wrote:
         | > Contrary to what many say, I don't think it's simple as
         | seniors are getting hired and juniors aren't. Juniors are still
         | getting hired because they're still way cheaper and they're
         | just as capable as using AI as anyone.
         | 
         | Tell me about all the junior developers you've hired (it's
         | none)
        
         | moralestapia wrote:
         | This has been my experience as well.
         | 
         | Happy to be on the high-end ^^.
        
         | jjmarr wrote:
         | Juniors from non target schools are getting pushed out since
         | the skill floor is too high.
         | 
         | I graduated 9 months ago. In that time I've merged more PRs
         | than anyone else, reduced mean time to merge by 20% on a
         | project with 300 developers with an automated code review tool,
         | and in the past week vibe coded an entire Kubernetes cluster
         | that can remotely execute our builds (working on making it more
         | reliable before putting it into prod).
         | 
         | None of this matters.
         | 
         | The companies/teams like OpenAI or Google Deepmind that are
         | allegedly hiring these super juniors at huge salaries only do
         | so from target schools like Waterloo or MIT. If you don't work
         | at a top company your compensation package is the same as ever.
         | I am not getting promoted faster, my bonus went from 9% to 14%
         | and I got a few thousand in spot bonuses.
         | 
         | From my perspective, this field is turning into finance or law,
         | where the risk of a bad hire due to the heightened skill floor
         | is so high that if you DIDN'T go to a target school you're not
         | getting a top job no matter how good you are. Like how Yale
         | goes to Big Law at $250k while non T14 gets $90k doing
         | insurance defence and there's no movement between the
         | categories. 20-30% of my classmates are still unemployed.
         | 
         | We cannot get around this by interviewing well because anyone
         | can cheat on interviews with AI, so they don't even give
         | interviews or coding assessments to my school. We cannot get
         | around this with better projects because anyone can release a
         | vibe coded library.
         | 
         | It appears the only thing that matters is pedigree of education
         | because 4 years of in person exams from a top school aren't
         | easy to fake.
        
           | klooney wrote:
           | I hate the credentialism. What a bummer of a place to end up.
        
           | zabzonk wrote:
           | Can I ask what you and others that posts things like this
           | here -"What are you actually developing?"
           | 
           | People are posting about pull requests, use of AIs, yada
           | yada. But they never tell us what they are trying to produce.
           | Surely this should be the first thing in the post:
           | 
           | - I am developing an X
           | 
           | - I use an LLM to write some of the code for it ... etc.
           | 
           | - I have these ... testing problems
           | 
           | - I have these problems with the VCS/build system ...
           | 
           | Otherwise it is all generalised, well "stuff". And maybe,
           | dare I say it, slop.
        
             | jjmarr wrote:
             | I'm hosting a Kubernetes cluster on Azure and trying to
             | autoscale it to tens of thousands of vCPUs. The goal is to
             | transparently replace dedicated developer workstations
             | (edit: transparently replace _compiling_ ) because our
             | codebase is really big and we've hired enough people this
             | is viable.
             | 
             | edit: to clarify, I'm using recc which wraps the compiler
             | commands like distcc or ccache. It doesn't require
             | developers to give up their workspace.
             | 
             | Right now I'm using buildbarn. Originally, I used sccache
             | but there's a hard cap on parallel jobs.
             | 
             | In terms of how LLMs help, they got me through all the
             | gruntwork of writing jsonnet and dockerfiles. I have barely
             | touched that syntax before so having AI churn it out was
             | helpful to driving towards the proof of concept. Otherwise
             | I'd be looking up "how do I copy a file into my Docker
             | container".
             | 
             | AI also meant I didn't have to spend a lot of time
             | evaluating competing solutions. I got sccache working in a
             | day and when it didn't scale I threw away all that work and
             | started over.
             | 
             | In terms of where the LLM fell short, it constantly lies to
             | me. For example, it mounted the host filesystem into the
             | docker image so it could get access to the toolchains
             | instead of making the docker images self-contained like it
             | said it would.
             | 
             | It also kept trying to not to the work, e.g. It randomly
             | decides in the thinking tokens "let's fall back to a local
             | caching solution since the distributed option didn't work"
             | then spams me with checkmark emojis and claims in the chat
             | message the distributed solution is complete.
             | 
             | A decent amount of it is slop, to be honest, but an 80%
             | working solution means I am getting more money and
             | resources to turn this into a real initiative. At which
             | point I'll rewrite the code again but I'll pay closer
             | attention now that I know docker better.
        
               | exceptione wrote:
               | > The goal is to transparently replace dedicated
               | developer workstation
               | 
               | Isn't there a less convoluted way of making the best
               | engineers leave? I am half serious here. If you want your
               | software to run slow, IT could equally well install
               | corporate security software on developer laptops. Oops, I
               | did it again. Oh well, in all seriousness, I have never
               | seen any performance problem being solved by running it
               | on Azure's virtualization. I am afraid you are replacing
               | the hardware layer by a software layer with ungodly
               | complexity, which you are sure of will be functionally
               | incomplete.
               | 
               | Are you sure they don't have to fix the build pipeline
               | first? Tens of thousands of vCPUs for a single
               | compilation run, or to accommodate 100 developers who try
               | to compile their own changes?
        
               | jjmarr wrote:
               | > I have never seen any performance problem being solved
               | by running it on Azure's virtualization
               | 
               | Sorry, I wasn't clear. I am not virtualizing the
               | workspace. I'm using `recc` which is like `distcc` or
               | `ccache` in that it wraps the compiler job. Every
               | developer keeps their workstation. It just routes the
               | actual `clang` or `gcc` calls to a Kubernetes cluster
               | which provides distributed build and cache.
               | 
               | > Isn't there a less convoluted way of making the best
               | engineers leave?
               | 
               | We have 7000+ compiler jobs in a clean build because it
               | is a big codebase. People are waiting hours for CI.
               | 
               | I'm sure that drives attrition and bringing that down to
               | minutes will help retain talent.
               | 
               | > Tens of thousands of vCPUs for a single compilation
               | run, or to accommodate 100 developers who try to compile
               | their own changes?
               | 
               | Because it uses remote execution, it will ideally do
               | both. My belief is that an individual developer launching
               | 6000 compiler jobs because they changed a header will
               | smooth out over 300 developers that generally do
               | incremental builds. Likewise, this'll eliminate redundant
               | recompilation when git pulling since this also serves as
               | a cache.
        
               | js4ever wrote:
               | This makes absolutely no sense to me. Are you really
               | recompiling 6000 things each time a dev in the company
               | needs to add a line somewhere in the codebase? Have you
               | thought about splitting that giant thing in smaller
               | chunks?
        
               | jjmarr wrote:
               | > Are you really recompiling 6000 things each time a dev
               | in the company needs to add a line somewhere in the
               | codebase?
               | 
               | It happens when someone modifies a widely included header
               | file. Which there are a lot of thanks to our use of
               | templates. And this is just our small team of 300 people.
               | 
               | > Have you thought about splitting that giant thing in
               | smaller chunks?
               | 
               | Yes. We've tried but it's not scaling. Unfortunately,
               | we've banned tactics like pImpl and dynamic linking that
               | would split a codebase unless they're profiled not to be
               | on a hot path. Speed is important because I'm writing
               | tests for a semiconductor fab and test time is more
               | expensive than any other kind of factory on Earth.
               | 
               | I tried stuff like precompiled headers but the fact only
               | one can be used per compilation job meant it didn't scale
               | to our codebase.
        
           | karmasimida wrote:
           | I mean you don't need your first job go to top of the top
           | companies. Your first job is to get you into the industry
           | then you can flourish.
           | 
           | How many juniors OpenAI GDM are going to hire in a year,
           | probably double digits at max, the chances are super slim and
           | they are by nature are allowed to be as picky as they should
           | be.
           | 
           | That being said, I do agree this industry is turning into
           | finance/law, but that won't last long either. I genuinely
           | can't foresee what if when AGI/ASI is really here, it should
           | start giving human ideas to better itself, and there will be
           | no incentive to hire any human for a large sum anymore, maybe
           | a single digit individuals on earth perhaps
        
             | jjmarr wrote:
             | The problem is the lack of experience compounds.
             | 
             | Because AI accelerates the rate of knowledge gain, this
             | gets even faster.
        
         | seanmcdirmid wrote:
         | > Juniors are still getting hired because they're still way
         | cheaper and they're just as capable as using AI as anyone.
         | 
         | Seniors have much more advantage right now in using AI than
         | Juniors. Seniors get to lean in on their experience in checking
         | AI results. Juniors rely on the AI's experience instead, which
         | isn't as useful.
        
         | JeremyNT wrote:
         | > _Juniors are still getting hired because they 're still way
         | cheaper and they're just as capable as using AI as anyone._
         | 
         | While I could buy that hiring managers _believe_ this, it 's
         | not _actually_ true.
         | 
         | The gulf between the quality of what a sr developer can do with
         | these tools and what a jr can do is huge. They simply don't
         | know what they don't know and effective prompting requires
         | effective spec writing.
         | 
         | A rando jr vibe coder can churn out code like there's no
         | tomorrow, but that doesn't mean it's actually right.
        
           | geodel wrote:
           | While I agree with what you said. In personal experience I
           | have noticed the software design / architecture is becoming
           | irrelevant for lot of enterprises (including mine of course).
           | So design nowadays is about API design Input/Output/Error
           | handling. And architecture is about Cloud/Kubernetes/APM ,
           | deployment and monitoring etc. Code now does not need much
           | design. Things like performance, isolation, extensibility etc
           | as those are now higher level concerns not part of code
           | itself.
           | 
           | This is also where micro services pattern fits in well
           | because individual unit is so small no design needed.
        
             | girvo wrote:
             | > Code now does not need much design.
             | 
             | I'll bite: why? Genuine question, not a weird gotcha.
        
         | sodafountan wrote:
         | Yes, this has been my experience. I'd consider myself average
         | at best. I worked in the industry for almost 7 years before
         | being laid off. I can't find anything at the moment and have
         | resorted to moving back in with my parents.
         | 
         | It's pretty depressing. I'd take just about anything at the
         | moment. I understand desperation going into a job interview
         | isn't ideal either.
         | 
         | It feels like I'm in a hole.
        
         | waba99 wrote:
         | I'm seeing a lot of specialization. For the past 11 years I've
         | marketed myself as a frontend engineer. I got laid off last
         | year and the job search was largely similar to my previous job
         | search 4 years prior.
         | 
         | I've been looking again this year and the landscape has changed
         | drastically. Specialization is the name of the game, I have a
         | good amount of experience working with Growth initiatives and
         | I've been getting good responses from roles that are looking
         | for either Growth or Design engineers, roles that were not as
         | prevalent years ago.
        
         | game_the0ry wrote:
         | > In my experience, tech employment is incredibly bimodal right
         | now. Top candidates are commanding higher salaries than ever,
         | but an "average" developer is going to have an extremely hard
         | time finding a position.
         | 
         | This is the K-shaped economy playing out. Its a signal that the
         | american middle class is hollowing out. Bad, very bad.
        
         | carabiner wrote:
         | Yep - the dual economy has moved into tech itself.
        
         | fny wrote:
         | As the kids say, AI makes everyone a 10x engineer. Who would
         | you you want to 10x?
        
           | andai wrote:
           | But it's measuring quantity, not quality.
           | 
           | https://www.folklore.org/Negative_2000_Lines_Of_Code.html
           | 
           | What we really need is the -10X engineer ;)
           | 
           | Alas, his job would entirely consist of debloating the slop
           | everyone else is pumping out "at inference speed".
           | 
           | https://steipete.me/posts/2025/shipping-at-inference-speed
        
         | kseniamorph wrote:
         | This matches what I've seen too. Though I'd add another
         | dimension: soft skills. In my experience, job searching has
         | always been easier for people who communicate well regardless
         | of their technical level. And soft skills might be what's
         | making some people more resilient to this market shift
         | specifically
        
           | girvo wrote:
           | That has always been true (not that I'm saying you don't know
           | that, I'm using your comment as a jumping off point) in this
           | industry. I am a good developer, but I'm a very good teacher
           | and leader, and soft skills are why I've had the career I've
           | had over the past two decades.
        
         | rwyinuse wrote:
         | In my experience juniors are simply being replaced with
         | intermediates and seniors who are willing to work for junior
         | wages.
        
         | libraryofbabel wrote:
         | > In my experience, tech employment is incredibly bimodal right
         | now. Top candidates are commanding higher salaries than ever,
         | but an "average" developer is going to have an extremely hard
         | time finding a position.
         | 
         | That sounds good for many of us (and don't we all like to think
         | we're top candidates here on HN...) but is there any data to
         | back this up? Or it just anecdata (not to dismiss anecdata,
         | still useful info).
        
         | ramijames wrote:
         | I'm not a Senior, but I'm not a Junior either. The market has
         | no place for people like me. I've killed myself for almost two
         | years and can't secure a position. It's incredibly
         | disheartening. I have a family to feed. I need to be able to
         | work.
        
         | alienbaby wrote:
         | Juniors really aren't just as capable with AI as anyone.
         | Knowing how to unambiguously describe correctly what you want
         | isn't something a junior can do, nor is understanding if what
         | the ai produces is good or bad.
        
         | simonw wrote:
         | That matches an observation made in that report from the recent
         | Thoughtworks retreat:
         | https://www.thoughtworks.com/content/dam/thoughtworks/docume...
         | 
         | > The retreat challenged the narrative that AI eliminates the
         | need for junior developers. Juniors are more profitable than
         | they have ever been. AI tools get them past the awkward initial
         | net-negative phase faster. They serve as a call option on
         | future productivity. And they are better at AI tools than
         | senior engineers, having never developed the habits and
         | assumptions that slow adoption.
         | 
         | > The real concern is mid-level engineers who came up during
         | the decade-long hiring boom and may not have developed the
         | fundamentals needed to thrive in the new environment. This
         | population represents the bulk of the industry by volume, and
         | retraining them is genuinely difficult. The retreat discussed
         | whether apprenticeship models, rotation programs and lifelong
         | learning structures could address this gap, but acknowledged
         | that no organization has solved it yet.
        
           | not_ai wrote:
           | Thanks for sharing this is the first I've seen this. I wish
           | they had expanded on exactly what mid-level might be missing
           | rather then just saying "fundamentals" and "practical
           | intuition"
        
         | milchek wrote:
         | I wonder if that is just a correction of the rampant hiring
         | that took place just before this employment "crash?" - if it is
         | as you say that its intermediates and non high performers then
         | does that make it a good thing as well.
         | 
         | Truth is, when I was part of larger orgs/enterprise I
         | definitely saw some folks who were dead weight, and I don't
         | mean to be harsh, a few of these knew they weren't contributing
         | and were being malicious in that sense.
         | 
         | Similarly, I wonder how many high performers now are taking
         | multiple jobs thanks to remote work and exposing the mid to low
         | performers. Like some kind of developer hypergamy taking place.
        
         | jordemort wrote:
         | someone: (actual data)
         | 
         | HN user: not in my experience!
        
         | agentultra wrote:
         | What is a high performer?
         | 
         | Someone who jumps higher than expected when the boss demands
         | it?
         | 
         | Someone who works 996 in the office?
         | 
         | Or someone who knows what they're doing?
         | 
         | I think this is bigger than any individual. It's just a matter
         | of time before you're let go. There's no loyalty from companies
         | at all. Not when they're seeing higher than expected profits
         | and are still cutting huge percentages of staff every year.
         | There's no strategy or preference to it. I don't think this has
         | to do with how you or I perform on the job.
         | 
         | Most people I've talked to lately who are still employed are
         | watching out for their job to get cut.
        
       | nphardon wrote:
       | Seems like my co is shedding US jobs and moving them to Taiwan,
       | and paying up to 75% less in salary.
        
       | roxolotl wrote:
       | How's it compare to 2000 though? Tech was ascendant in 2008 so
       | not surprised to hear it didn't do too badly then and in 2020
       | while people panicked tech again had a much easier time keeping
       | people on remotely.
       | 
       | EDIT: posted below as well
       | https://xcancel.com/JosephPolitano/status/202991636466461124...
       | 
       | There's a longer term graph in the thread. We've got a long way
       | to go before we hit 2000 numbers which is what I'd expected.
        
         | raw_anon_1111 wrote:
         | I was working in 2000 in Atlanta GA at boring old enterprises
         | companies with 4 years of experience back then. If you were
         | working for/targeting profitable non tech companies, the world
         | was your oyster.
         | 
         | I was working at a company that printed bills for utility
         | companies and had offers from banks, insurance companies etc.
         | The world didn't stop buying Coca Cola, flying Delta or stop
         | buying stuff from Home Depot because of the dot com crash
        
         | tunesmith wrote:
         | In Portland, there was a time in 2000-2002 where Nike and Intel
         | had contract offers out to SW developers for $12/hour, and were
         | getting slammed with applications.
        
           | ryanSrich wrote:
           | The equivalent of about $20/hr today for those wondering
        
             | markus_zhang wrote:
             | Housing is the ultimate decider so I'd say that's
             | equivalent to at least 50 bucks today.
        
               | andai wrote:
               | Damn, never thought about it like that. That seems a lot
               | more practical and relevant than the Big Mac Index.
        
               | markus_zhang wrote:
               | Yeah I think housing is the real index. CPI doesn't make
               | sense for individuals unless you build your own index.
        
           | raw_anon_1111 wrote:
           | In Atlanta in 2000, I was making $52K a year working for a
           | medium size company that printed bills. By 2002 I was making
           | $65K at the same company.
           | 
           | For context, I had my 2600 square foot 3.5/2 bedroom house
           | built that year for $175K.
        
           | eitally wrote:
           | I started my career at $14/hr in 1999, was at $19/hr in 2000,
           | and switched to salary at $55k by 2001. I spent 15 years in
           | corp IT running software teams... total comp got way better
           | when I entered the big tech industry in 2015.
        
         | eikenberry wrote:
         | Remember that the 2000 numbers are also out of a much smaller
         | pool and the graph uses absolute numbers. So even if they were
         | the same numbers in 2000 as 2020 it would have been a much,
         | much larger percentage of all jobs.
        
       | ppeetteerr wrote:
       | Those are raw numbers. I would look instead at the job changes
       | over total employment numbers. I don't have the numbers but I
       | would wager we have many more people working in tech today
       | (overall) than we did in 2008.
       | 
       | Also, that spike in 21/22 really did a number on people's
       | expectations. The one constant in this industry is its cyclical
       | nature.
        
         | mrweasel wrote:
         | Maybe I'm reading the graph wrong, but the decrease comes after
         | years on continuous growth, so total employment numbers in tech
         | should still be absolutely massive, compared to 18 years ago?
         | 
         | If it continues, then yes it could be bad, but so far it seems
         | like a correction for over-hiring in 2021 - 2023. Seems a
         | little weird to be focusing on a decline in 2024 - 2026,
         | without addressing the large increase right in the years
         | before.
        
           | SpicyLemonZest wrote:
           | There's a lot of dynamics where it's the short-term numbers
           | that matter. If you're a developer who needs a new job after
           | your spouse got transferred to LA or something, it does you
           | no good that the absolute numbers are massive, nor that a
           | different person looking for a job 3 years ago would have
           | found it uncommonly easy.
        
         | oblio wrote:
         | Asked Gemini quickly for 2000 and 2025 numbers (US).
         | 
         | Tech employees: 5.5m vs 9.9.
         | 
         | Software developers: 0.68m vs 3.2m.
         | 
         | Different ball game.
        
           | game_the0ry wrote:
           | > Software developers: 0.68m vs 3.2m.
           | 
           | Wow. Just wow.
        
           | nabbed wrote:
           | >Software developers: 0.68m vs 3.2m.
           | 
           | I had no idea I was in such an exclusive group back in 2000.
           | Everyone I knew was a software engineer or in tech one way or
           | another so I suppose I got a warped sense that I belonged to
           | a larger group.
        
       | alephnerd wrote:
       | As I previously mentioned, based on person experience assumptions
       | around hiring have changed due to the Twitter layoffs, demands
       | for FCF positivity, and WFH inadvertently justifying offshoring
       | [0], not necessarily due to interest rate changes.
       | 
       | ---
       | 
       | As I also mentioned, the only way you can survive in American
       | tech at this point is to:
       | 
       | 1. Move to a Tier 1 tech hub like the Bay and NYC. If you get
       | laid off, you will probably find another job in a couple of weeks
       | due to the density of employers. Seattle used to be a good
       | option, but WA's norms around noncompete clauses incentivize
       | larger employers which reduces the ability for startups to truly
       | scale.
       | 
       | 2. Start coming into the office 2-3 days a week. It's harder to
       | layoff someone you have had beers or coffee with. Worst case,
       | they can refer you to their friends companies if you get laid off
       | 
       | 3. Upskill technically. Learn the fundamentals of AI/ML and
       | MLOPs. Agents are basically a semi-nondeterministic SaaS.
       | Understanding how AI/ML works and understanding their benefits
       | and pitfalls make you a much more valuable hire.
       | 
       | 4. Upskill professionally. We're not hiring code monkeys for
       | $200K-400K TC. We want Engineers who can communicate business
       | problems into technical requirements. This means also
       | understanding the industry your company is in, how to manage up
       | to leadership, and what are the revenue drivers and cost centers
       | of your employer. Learn how to make a business case for technical
       | issues. If you cannot communicate why refactoring your codebase
       | from Python to Golang would positively impact topline metrics, no
       | one will prioritize it.
       | 
       | 5. Live lean, save for a rainy day, and keep your family and
       | friends close. If you're not in a financial position to say "f##k
       | you" you will get f##ked, and strong relationships help you build
       | the support system you need for independence. The reality is the
       | current set of layoffs and work stresses were the norm in the
       | tech industry until 2015-22. We live in a competitive world and
       | complaining on HN does nothing to help your material condition.
       | 
       | [0] - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47174561
        
         | pm90 wrote:
         | I don't believe this is true. There are plenty of roles that
         | are happy to hire remotely. Sure, there is an in person
         | requirement for many job listings but Ive found EMs/companies
         | to be very flexible if they need to hire talent.
         | 
         | For people that can't/dont want to move to the "hubs", just
         | know that there is absolutely still a career path. I will say
         | though that you need to have above average communication skills
         | and proactively build relationships during in person off-sites.
        
           | alephnerd wrote:
           | There absolutely are remote first roles in the US, but the
           | competition is also extremely intense. The median SWE and
           | HNer wouldn't make the cut.
           | 
           | It also requires a level of maturity, clear thinking, self-
           | starterness, and independence that is hard to come by without
           | a proven track record and experience.
           | 
           | My advice is for the median/average SWE and HNer, not for the
           | truly exceptional.
           | 
           | Spending a 7-10 years in a hub and then going remote first is
           | the best path because you build the network you need to get
           | referrals to vouch for you as a remote-first hire well as the
           | track record needed to go remote-first.
        
           | bobanrocky wrote:
           | Nope, the number of remote roles are drastically reducing. If
           | your are a sw dev/mgr, you'll need to be at least hybrid to
           | your company's 'tech center'
        
       | kittikitti wrote:
       | Although the graph lists BLS data as the source, it's hard for me
       | to find the specific datasets that back it up. It's March 2026
       | and the graph indicates it would encapsulate 2025. In fact, the
       | "Software Development Job Postings on Indeed in the United
       | States" indicate something different,
       | https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1T60O
       | 
       | I was able to find the following:
       | 
       | - Software Publishers
       | https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SMU06000005051320001
       | - Regional data available only, numerous national statistics are
       | discontinued            - California region matches up, but
       | places like Boston don't
       | https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SMU25000005051320001
       | 
       | - Computing Infrastructure Providers
       | https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES5051800001
       | - Matches up perfectly, no notes here.
       | 
       | - Computer Systems Design
       | https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES6054150001
       | - However, the graph in the tweet doesn't include the February
       | data (even though it claims "recent") which shows an increase
       | 
       | - Web Search Portals
       | https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES5051900001
       | - Matches up, but February data isn't in the graph which shows an
       | increase from January
       | 
       | - Streaming Services
       | https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SMU06000005051620001
       | - Doesn't include January or February 2026 data, doesn't match up
       | with graph in tweet
       | 
       | I wasn't able to find the following: - Custom Computer
       | Programming Services
       | 
       | There are numerous open questions in this analysis which I would
       | need to be addressed before drawing any conclusions. My gut
       | feeling would love to accept it at face value but I never trust
       | my gut.
        
       | wnolens wrote:
       | Anyone else's inbox slammed with recruiters, more than it ever
       | has been in the past? Feels like there's 10x the jobs available,
       | but perhaps it's just that LLMs have automated a recruiter's job
       | and they're letting the slop fly
        
         | alephnerd wrote:
         | Depends on your geo. If you're in the Bay, NYC, and maybe a few
         | other hubs hiring remains strong.
         | 
         | The "inshoring" hubs like RTP and Denver or those hubs that are
         | dominated by a handful of oversized companies like Seattle are
         | the worst impacted.
        
         | Ancalagon wrote:
         | Mine is too. Absolutely no outreach from the major players
         | however. Mostly AI startups with a few larger/older SaaS
         | startups sprinkled in.
        
         | Sevii wrote:
         | Nope its totally dead
        
         | sodafountan wrote:
         | No, but it used to be.
         | 
         | What mediums are you using for recruiters to contact you? Do
         | you have a linked-in or are you applying directly to recruiting
         | companies? Are you active anywhere else?
         | 
         | Genuinely interested in how you're receiving so many
         | recruitment emails. That used to be my go to way to hit the job
         | market.
        
         | albinowax_ wrote:
         | Mine is, but it's AI generated slop from gmail addresses, for
         | some kind of scam
        
       | caesil wrote:
       | Misleading title. The _change_ in tech employment is worse, but
       | actual tech employment remains high thanks to the massive
       | 2021-2023 hiring spree.
        
       | Trasmatta wrote:
       | Purely anecdotal, but I'm a senior engineer with about 15 years
       | of experience and a decently impressive resume. In the past, I
       | almost always get to at least the interviewing stage, and have
       | frequently received multiple offers at the same time. Recruiters
       | used to spam me constantly.
       | 
       | I haven't heard from a recruiter in probably 6 months. I recently
       | put my feelers out and applied to a handful of positions I was
       | qualified for, and got rejection letters from all of them.
        
         | Joel_Mckay wrote:
         | Try only including your last 2 positions, as most senior staff
         | tend to scare insecure brogrammers. They probably still won't
         | hire, but you will get more interviews.
         | 
         | There are also a lot of people posting fake jobs for feeding
         | LLM datasets, running scams, and bidding down labor costs. =3
        
       | Ancalagon wrote:
       | Hm what about the Citadel rebuttal that showed growth?
       | 
       | https://www.citadelsecurities.com/news-and-insights/2026-glo...
        
         | jatins wrote:
         | Yeah, I was thinking the same. It seems like you can get data
         | for whatever argument you want to support
        
         | andai wrote:
         | I've heard other people say, situation has greatly improved
         | over the past year, esp. 6 months.
        
         | Rexxar wrote:
         | Doesn't seem necessarily a contradiction. Job posting growth
         | logically happens before effective job growth.
        
         | candiddevmike wrote:
         | Biggest thing hurting folks is RTO. Unless you live in a large
         | metro, tech jobs are slim/none.
        
           | stanleykm wrote:
           | That's how it was before the pandemic.. Is it unusual that
           | the jobs are where the people are?
        
       | rvz wrote:
       | Yet, no-one here is talking about building a start up. Which is
       | the actual answer.
        
         | overgard wrote:
         | I'm an outsider, but VC looks like it's in a bad place right
         | now. The returns have been pretty bad this decade, and AI
         | companies are eating all the dollars so if you're not doing
         | that it strikes me it'd be hard to get funding. And idk, if you
         | already have an AI startup then you're hoping for the best, but
         | if you were starting a business today I think that bubble looks
         | like it has a lot of needles around it
        
       | stackedinserter wrote:
       | Are there real positions these days?
       | 
       | I get rejection for every single position that I apply to. Often
       | I read literally a description of myself in job posting, and it's
       | still "we decided to no move forward".
       | 
       | At the same time, I hire people and see that 8/10 candidates are
       | just trash. Not in the sense they "are not aligned", or "emit
       | wrong vibes", or other bs. They literally can't write a single
       | line of code, on their own laptop, in their own IDE.
       | 
       | Make it make sense.
        
         | cyberpunk wrote:
         | It's bananas how many utterly crap candidates we get at the
         | moment too.
         | 
         | One low point was an interview with a guy who connected with
         | his current work laptop and couldn't find the $ key on it for a
         | basic scripting question.
         | 
         | I can't make it make sense either.
        
       | overgard wrote:
       | I know people will say AI, but I don't think it's that. The whole
       | "everyone should learn to code" bullshit of the last 15 years or
       | so has created a lot of developers that frankly aren't very good,
       | and then you mix in the massive overhiring of the pandemic, and
       | what you're seeing is a hard correction. CEOs love to use
       | "productivity improvements from AI" as a smokescreen and investor
       | catnip but the research shows it's not having the effects
       | claimed.
        
         | tracerbulletx wrote:
         | Blaming the employees is BS. A pretty large % of the people
         | losing their jobs are also high performing excellent people. I
         | feel like anyone who worked at one of these companies doing lay
         | offs knows this.
        
           | stanleykm wrote:
           | The layoffs are not necessarily executed in a way that takes
           | performance into account, but that doesn't mean that the
           | industry overall doesn't have too many people for the amount
           | of work that needs to be done.
        
             | tracerbulletx wrote:
             | Its only the part about casting any aspersions at the
             | people laid off for being low performance that bothers me
             | because I know so many incredible people for whom they
             | absolutely did not deserve it and its not fair to assume
             | anything about their value or quality of their work
             | specifically.
        
             | johnnyanmac wrote:
             | Depends on the industry and product, as usual. On an large
             | level, I do not think there's "too many engineers and not
             | enough problems to be solved". Companies are simply
             | hunkering down for a recession we can't say out loud.
        
             | bayarearefugee wrote:
             | > that doesn't mean that the industry overall doesn't have
             | too many people for the amount of work that needs to be
             | done.
             | 
             | Not that I disagree with you here, but it is hard to square
             | this with people who are also saying not to worry about AI
             | displacement because there's limitless demand for software.
        
               | bluefirebrand wrote:
               | > it is hard to square this with people who are also
               | saying not to worry about AI displacement because there's
               | limitless demand for software.
               | 
               | Well, that's easy to square: the idea that there is
               | limitless demand for software is nonsense. Pure fiction
        
           | overgard wrote:
           | Sorry, I didn't mean to imply that the people that got laid
           | off were the ones that deserved it. Obviously politics,
           | situational factors (wanting people back in the office), etc
           | are a huge part (I myself am recently laid off and I don't
           | think I deserved it!) What I was trying to drive at is
           | developers have lost a lot of leverage and negotiation
           | because there are too many people fighting for too few roles.
           | Also I can't help but wonder if people have lost trust in
           | developers because of the dilution of talent.
           | 
           | That being said, I don't think it's unfair to point out that
           | creating a massive influx of new developers without jobs that
           | provided good mentorship (most jobs are awful at mentoring
           | junior developers) is going to have huge consequences that
           | we're now dealing with. I think the "learn to code" thing was
           | a massive mistake. Encourage the people that want to, sure,
           | but don't try to pull people in that are only marginally
           | interested in a paycheck.
        
       | stego-tech wrote:
       | It's bad, yeah, especially for folks on the job market (it me).
       | Some statistics first, from my own job search logs:
       | 
       | * Since I hit the pavement in late January, I've tracked 100 job
       | applications
       | 
       | * Of those 100, only 7 have turned into interviews
       | 
       | * Of those seven interviews, 3 turned into second-round
       | 
       | * ~50% of all applications never receive a response
       | 
       | * ~20% of rejections for any reason have the role re-posted
       | within thirty days
       | 
       | * For rejections stating "higher quality applications", that role
       | re-post rate is closer to 50%, suggesting ATS systems culling too
       | many candidates to fill the role or ghost jobs
       | 
       | * Despite my state requiring salary requirements be posted in the
       | JD, only around 70% of postings included what could be considered
       | "reasonable" estimates
       | 
       | * 100% of interviews have been for local employers requiring 3+
       | days on-site
       | 
       | And now, some observations not captured in the data directly:
       | 
       | * Employers are trying to "under-title" folks; Senior roles want
       | to hire former Leads, and Management roles want next-rung
       | candidates for prior-rung titles (e.g., hiring what should be a
       | Senior Manager for an entry-level management role)
       | 
       | * Employers are also trying to underpay workers by a large
       | margin, especially folks coming from Big Tech ("We don't pay
       | {SV_FIRM} money" while offering salaries below the local 50%ile
       | for the role in question); they're blaming a "surplus of tech
       | talent", which may or may not be true (I lack the data to prove
       | either way)
       | 
       | * The two above points are in conflict, because rent/mortgages in
       | these areas are so steep that even with major lifestyle changes
       | to cut costs, these wages simply aren't survivable for local
       | areas
       | 
       | * "Credential Creep" is back in force: Architect certs required
       | for mid-level engineering roles, buzzwords prioritized over
       | outcomes and achievements, and AI ATS' rejecting qualified
       | candidates flat-out
       | 
       | * College Degrees are relevant again as a means of pruning
       | candidates; fifteen years of experience is irrelevant for a lot
       | of Senior roles if you don't have a BS or Masters, which wasn't
       | the case even last year
       | 
       | * Industry-specialization is also back, even for roles where
       | industry specialization is generally moot or easily picked up
       | (e.g., Corporate IT stuff)
       | 
       | * A significant number (~75-85%) of roles explicitly reject H1B
       | and other visa workers; not a problem for me (Citizen), but this
       | is the worst possible time to be job hunting on a non-LPR status.
       | 
       | And now, my personal experiences:
       | 
       | * There's a very strong attitude of "you're being entitled" when
       | it comes down to salary negotiations, even when you show your
       | math for essentials - and share prior compensation history
       | reflecting the cuts you've already taken since your Big Tech
       | salary to "rejoin the market".
       | 
       | * Employers generally have no clue how expensive it is to live
       | right now, especially in major metros; one such employer who
       | balked at my comp floor genuinely had no clue the _median rent_
       | was three and a half grand per month.
       | 
       | * Compensation seems particularly tilted towards working couples;
       | as in, neither alone makes enough to survive, and employers
       | assume you have a FTE spouse to shore up finances so they can pay
       | you less
       | 
       | * Employers also don't seem to know what they actually want or
       | need. Specialist Engineer roles (e.g., Cloud Engineer, Network
       | Engineer) cite required experience and expertise with the full
       | technology stack inclusive of ERP and HRIS nowadays, which is
       | something that used to be handled by a specific team for the
       | entirety of my career thus far, even in smaller (<1k) orgs. I've
       | also seen Architect roles demanding Help Desk work, and Software
       | Dev roles who want experience supporting Entra.
       | 
       | * AI does _not_ feature in as many interviews as I would 've
       | thought. The few times it does, it's very much a "that's nice,
       | but we're taking a wait and see approach" attitude
       | 
       | * There's a lot of eagerness to hire domestically again (I think
       | even middle managers were tired of outsourcing or offshoring),
       | but a lack of budget to afford domestic talent.
       | 
       | Ultimately, it's pretty bleak - but still better than last year,
       | at least thus far (~300 apps, ~2 companies interviewed with, 1
       | offer in 2025). AI isn't the value-add I was sold on by career
       | counselors and LinkedIn ( _huge surprise there_ /s), and there
       | definitely seems to be the appetite to hire, but not the realism
       | of what to expect or how much it'll cost. I very much view it as
       | a sort of tug-of-war at the moment, between workers who did
       | everything expected of them and have cut to the bone already, and
       | employers who somehow think they can pay <50%ile wages while
       | mandating 4-days on-site in a major metro for experienced talent.
       | 
       | If you're an employer looking to hire, I have some advice:
       | 
       | * Ditch the AI ATS or AI summaries and _read resumes_ ,
       | especially if you're requiring local presence.
       | 
       | * Understand what you need (and what that will cost you) before
       | posting the JD
       | 
       | * Understand the local cost of living, and budget accordingly
       | (i.e., if your Senior Engineer can't afford median rent, they're
       | not going to stick around when things improve)
       | 
       | * If you value loyalty and aren't paying TC to afford a median
       | home in the area, then you don't actually value loyalty
       | 
       | * Don't pigeonhole yourself with hyper-specific candidates as a
       | means of winnowing down applicants; that level of specialization
       | will flee the second they get a better offer elsewhere
       | 
       | * Post salaries in the JD, required or not, so you don't waste
       | your time with candidates whose expectations don't align with
       | your budget
        
         | jdwithit wrote:
         | I'm also looking right now and a lot of that resonates with me.
         | The posted salary ranges are often a complete joke as you
         | noted. "The pay band for this role is $80,000-250,000
         | commensurate with experience and interview performance". Yeah
         | OK buddy are you seriously trying to tell me you have multiple
         | people with the exact same job title making salaries over $100k
         | apart? Feels like they're just giving the finger to lawmakers
         | through malicious compliance.
         | 
         | I've also run into the industry specialization roadblock a few
         | times. Got turned down by a fintech company after multiple
         | interview rounds because I did not have banking industry
         | experience, for example. I guess I get it as a tie breaker but
         | I've operated in a PCI compliant environment for years, seems
         | like that should count as relevant experience? Also if you're
         | going to dumpster candidates without banking experience why on
         | earth did you waste several hours of your staff's time giving
         | me tech screens?
         | 
         | Job hunting has always sucked. But it feels particularly busted
         | at the moment. The process is miserable. If you've coasted to
         | an easy hiring in the last year, you're either amazing (and
         | hats off to you!) or got very lucky.
        
           | stego-tech wrote:
           | The salary ranges are complete jokes on either end: they're
           | either malicious compliance like you pointed out, or
           | completely out of touch with reality.
           | 
           | My example of that was when I applied for an Architect role
           | (as I'm at that point in my upward career trajectory), and
           | they asked me instead to apply for a Senior Admin role as
           | they "didn't know what the Architect role would look like
           | yet". I did, I included my comp target, and got the hard sell
           | on why I was being unreasonable and should take
           | {2016_PAY}/{$100k below SV_FIRM} instead. I mentioned my
           | absolute floor was {$75k lower than SV_FIRM}/{$25k lower than
           | my target}, ran him through my math (median rent for the
           | area, on-site expectations, commute costs, food costs,
           | insurance costs, 50/30/20 budgeting, etc), and pointed out
           | that floor would only cover needs (50) and savings (20) with
           | no fun money (30) whatsoever. Ultimately I withdrew my name
           | entirely because the guy just wouldn't listen to me, and all
           | but demanded I be grateful for his number in the current
           | economy.
           | 
           | I suspect something similar is going on with another company
           | that's seemingly ghosted me, after I stated I was targeting
           | their upper boundary of their listed comp range - still $85k
           | below {SV_FIRM}, but with growth potential towards Architect
           | and Director-type IT roles. Even when I'm fine eating huge
           | pay cuts for work (and falling off the homebuying ladder, as
           | not even {SV_FIRM} paid house-purchasing money), the
           | employers out there really do want perfect diamonds for the
           | cost of Halloween Trinkets.
           | 
           | > Also if you're going to dumpster candidates without banking
           | experience why on earth did you waste several hours of your
           | staff's time giving me tech screens?
           | 
           | This is also something that's grinding my gears. Had an
           | investment firm put me through six technical interviews with
           | glowing recommendations every step of the way only for the
           | seventh round (CIO) to put the kibosh on it without a reason
           | and after showing up unprepared and disinterested. Also had
           | companies say I lack financial discipline experience when
           | I've literally built models, showback systems, budget
           | forecasts, and cemented six-figures of monthly savings in
           | prior roles; same with companies saying I "lack compliance
           | experience" despite calling out running infra in highly
           | regulated environments, performing compliance audits for
           | clients, and uplifting infra to satisfy compliance regimes.
           | 
           | If I didn't know better, I'd say the entire HR process is
           | just feeding shit into chatbots and letting them make hiring
           | decisions. Nobody seems to actually care about the humans
           | involved or the wider systems at play.
           | 
           | It's immensely frustrating, but I can only keep on keeping on
           | until something changes. I don't need to win every
           | application, I just need to win _one_.
        
       | kojeovo wrote:
       | Seems like a tough market for those nuking their prod db with an
       | ai agent
        
       | frankbreetz wrote:
       | Looking at the employment report that came out today, tech seems
       | to be doing better then most sectors...
       | 
       | "Other professional, scientific, and technical services" grew
       | month over month and year over year
       | 
       | "Information" took a hit, but the bulk of that was "Motion
       | picture and sound recording industries"
       | 
       | "Computing infrastructure providers, data processing, web
       | hosting, and related services" modestly shrunk, but "Web search
       | portals, libraries, archives, and other information service" is
       | the only area to grow under information.
       | 
       | This seems different then what the post says. They also said
       | worse then 2008, but didn't post any information. I would imagine
       | the total market was much smaller, so the while total jobs lost
       | was probably smaller, percentage was probably larger. When I
       | started in 2012, tech would take any with a science degree.
       | 
       | I don't understand the job titles being propose in the post, are
       | the using different BLS data then me?
       | 
       | https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf
        
         | jimbokun wrote:
         | "Web search portals, libraries, archives, and other information
         | service"
         | 
         | It's a weird employment category that includes both Google SWEs
         | and your local librarian.
        
       | lich_king wrote:
       | This is the plot of the first derivative of employment. It shows
       | a comparatively small but lasting dip after a massive, prolonged,
       | and unwarranted boom between late 2020 and early 2024 that
       | coincided with the dying breaths of ZIRP.
       | 
       | I have no idea about what's coming, but I wouldn't pay a whole
       | lot of attention to people who are looking at the plots of a
       | highly volatile and cyclic industry that goes through constant
       | boom-and-bust cycles, and are trying to position this as proof
       | that AI is or isn't having an impact.
        
         | johnnyanmac wrote:
         | Well I pay a lot of attention to the fact that there's much
         | much tepid responses to applications I put out. Something
         | something irrational markets.
        
       | jlhawn wrote:
       | Here's the same post on Bluesky for those who prefer that
       | platform:
       | https://bsky.app/profile/josephpolitano.bsky.social/post/3mg...
        
         | schmichael wrote:
         | Thank you! Could HN switch the links? bsky doesn't require a
         | login to view replies. bsky is just a superior viewing
         | experience.
        
           | boca_honey wrote:
           | I don't know if switching from a extreme partisan site to
           | another extreme partisan site is the right solution just
           | because of the need of login credentials. In any case,
           | Twitter/X has been online almost 20 years. Bluesky still has
           | to prove its staying power long term.
        
             | dasil003 wrote:
             | The justification of better UX seems reasonable regardless
             | of politics. I'd prefer not to have to log in on any HN
             | link, and I also can't say I want to optimize for link
             | health as this is super topical and I will never want to
             | look at it again after this discussion is over.
        
             | greggoB wrote:
             | This reply makes _zero_ sense to me.
             | 
             | 1. You start off by labelling both platforms as "extreme
             | partisan" - care to explain? 2. This charge is used to
             | minimize the original complaint (login requirement), which
             | is a hard blocker to view replies, i.e. additional context.
             | 3. This all then somehow morphs into a point about platform
             | longevity?
             | 
             | How exactly does any of this address parent commenter's
             | statement that "bsky is just a superior viewing
             | experience."?
        
               | boca_honey wrote:
               | You're right, I went off-topic for no good reason. I was
               | just reacting to my personal bias against Bluesky and its
               | stereotypical user and content.
               | 
               | Too late to edit / delete my post but I retract it and
               | apologize.
        
           | squidlogic wrote:
           | If viewing replies is the goal, it looks like bsky has 2
           | replies and the twitter link has 45 replies. Do with that
           | information what you will.
        
       | globular-toast wrote:
       | What are people's plan Bs for when it goes tits up? I reckon I'd
       | make a good electrician or something like that, but it's a real,
       | grown up profession and I would have to get qualified.
        
         | johnnyanmac wrote:
         | Games are a weird sector. Long term I simply want to go it
         | indie. Even if I doesn't pan out, it's some kind of passive
         | income and I have something to show to that is fully "mine" (so
         | no ambiguity about how much I really contributed at BigCo.).
         | 
         | Short term I'm freelancing and doing whatever else I can find
         | to get by. Hoping for one more full time role before I start my
         | self published ventures.
        
         | cosmicgadget wrote:
         | Why don't those developers just learn to mine coal?
        
         | beastman82 wrote:
         | I think that's a very good plan FWIW. I'm going to consider
         | cabinetry which I predict will be a semi-retirement in terms of
         | income
        
         | Maximus9000 wrote:
         | That's funny, I'm also thinking about Electrician.
        
         | oceanplexian wrote:
         | Repairing classic cars.
         | 
         | We could arrive at the technical singularity and come up with
         | 8000 IQ robots that can do things in a clean room but in the
         | messy physical reality? I believe they will fail to catch up
         | forever.
         | 
         | They will fail to deal with a stripped bolt head deep inside an
         | engine bay that's been exposed to 40 years of road salt, that
         | needs to be hit right with a 10lb hammer and a home made chisel
         | until shit knocks loose, combined with cutting, welding,
         | drilling, torching, tapping, impromptu redneck engineering,
         | cursing, the use of 8 different kinds of penetrating
         | lubricants, the acquisition of weird and highly model-year
         | specific parts in a junkyard 500 miles away, realizing it's all
         | wrong and doing it again.
         | 
         | Multiply the complexity by 100 times and that's what it's like
         | to take on a classic car project.
        
       | stokemoney wrote:
       | There are different types of engineers, those who don't engage
       | with product and have soft skills will feel the burn
        
       | givemeethekeys wrote:
       | A look at the number of replies to "Who's Hiring?" each month
       | over the past year or so compared to prior years made it loud and
       | clear. Traditional tech has been in a recession for a couple of
       | years, at least!
        
         | mahatofu wrote:
         | It's also worth noting that the economy and job market as a
         | whole is in a recession.
        
         | rsanek wrote:
         | Indeed, things really changed in late 2022 / early 2023.
         | https://www.hnhiringtrends.com/
        
       | mlsu wrote:
       | I just can't get over how short and intense the period between
       | 2021 and 2023 was. There was SO much hype, such stupendous
       | hiring, in such a compressed timeframe. Within the span of like 9
       | weeks it went from full steam ahead to completely seized.
       | 
       | At the same time, the economy at large didn't seem to change very
       | much.
       | 
       | Why did this happen?
        
         | game_the0ry wrote:
         | Near zero interest rates + COVID remote work + PPP loans =
         | Booming economy
         | 
         | What is happening now is the unwinding of the above. Now its:
         | 
         | Higher rates + AI + too many SWEs (bootcamps and over-hiring) =
         | Busting economy
         | 
         | I think what we are in right now is more the norm and the post
         | covid boom was an exception.
        
           | kccqzy wrote:
           | And also the section 174 change too, which suddenly increased
           | the tax bill for any companies doing software development.
        
             | candiddevmike wrote:
             | That has been undone now, though.
        
       | janalsncm wrote:
       | I have been getting automated emails from a slew of different
       | recruiters now. Usually one or two per day. I believe they are
       | LLM generated. However, I usually don't respond.
       | 
       | The next step is for me to respond with an LLM. Maybe if my LLM
       | is good enough it'll convince their LLM to skip the interview and
       | just offer me a job.
        
       | mariopt wrote:
       | For the last 2 years I can't even get an interview despited
       | having 14 years of experience and being up to date with
       | development trends, libraries, languages, AI tooling, etc.
       | 
       | I don't think the market is flooded with new devs as many state,
       | I think we are in a deep silent crisis
        
         | markus_zhang wrote:
         | IMO it's just depression for tech. Back then 33% of total
         | employment got gutted, which is probably better than tech today
         | or in a few years when big techs start AI gut.
        
         | janalsncm wrote:
         | Wow, that stinks. Are you just doing freelance in the meantime?
        
         | ptrrrrrrppr wrote:
         | Sometimes it looks like the longer you're looking for a job,
         | the harder it gets for some reason. That's unintuitive for me,
         | as you should be getting more confident in interviews etc
        
           | bluefirebrand wrote:
           | Companies take your unemployment length as a negative signal
           | 
           | "He's been unemployed for 13 months? Why doesn't anyone want
           | to hire him? Must be something wrong with him"
        
         | dimgl wrote:
         | Are you based in the U.S.?
        
           | mariopt wrote:
           | EU/UK
        
             | eitally wrote:
             | Have you considered roles in the EU countries that have
             | been going gangbusters for US offshoring (Poland, Bulgaria,
             | Romania, Ukraine, Slovakia)?
        
               | mariopt wrote:
               | The market in the EU is strange, it doesn't matter where
               | you live. Every role is being advertised as a remote one,
               | over 200+ applicants and it's virtually impossible to get
               | noticed.
               | 
               | I blame this on people spamming fake AI CVs 24/7, no one
               | is going to review hundreds of CVs.
        
         | TrackerFF wrote:
         | To some recruiters, there's this sweet spot between 5 and 10
         | years experience where the applicant good / independent enough
         | to hit the ground running, not too expensive, and still young
         | enough to put up with company bullshit.
        
         | konschubert wrote:
         | I don't know. The company I work at is inviting candidates for
         | interviews, and we have to make compromises because we can't
         | get the exact profiles we are looking for. Something about your
         | comment does not add up to me.
        
           | RealityVoid wrote:
           | Locality. People want to work close to where they live and
           | not all places are bustling with all kind of activity. I
           | suspect you're hybrid or on site only, right?
        
             | luckylion wrote:
             | not GP, but we're hybrid but remote-first and 80% is remote
             | and we have the same experience. Getting juniors is easy,
             | getting seniors+ is very difficult.
        
         | windowshopping wrote:
         | I've been able to get something like 25 interviews in 2 months
         | despite having long gaps on my resume and nothing especially
         | impressive to my name. So I suspect you might be going about
         | this wrong. I haven't gotten an offer yet, that's another
         | story, but getting the interviews hasn't been hard. Applying in
         | NYC/SF, senior-only.
        
           | HarHarVeryFunny wrote:
           | So what do you attribute your success in getting interviews
           | to? What are you doing right, or better than other people?
        
           | sidereal1 wrote:
           | I think another big change is the offer rate. I've had plenty
           | of interviews in recent years but almost no offers.
        
         | bluefirebrand wrote:
         | I don't think it's very silent?
         | 
         | Maybe people just have their fingers in their ears but this has
         | been a problem for years now
        
       | loeg wrote:
       | Yeah but like... area under the curve. All of those jobs and more
       | were added _very_ recently, 2020-2022. It 's a major retreat from
       | that growth, but the trend since, say, 2008 or 2010 or 2018 is
       | still positive growth. 2020-2022 was just a _huge_ shift due to a
       | very weird Covid /ZIRP market.
        
       | zadikian wrote:
       | Remember it's the first derivative. The title and chart suggested
       | at first that there are fewer tech jobs vs the start, but really
       | it must be way more.
       | 
       | I still kinda want to see this going back to 2000. That must be
       | the biggest tech crash by far. 2008 and 2020 were overall market
       | crashes, but tech was booming.
        
       | jmward01 wrote:
       | A key thing in this graph is that it doesn't seem to correlate to
       | the rise of code assistants. That is a (relatively) recent last
       | year thing from my point of view. Yes, they were there before,
       | but they hadn't really hit in a way that I think hiring decisions
       | had shifted because of them. This is just tech laying off, not AI
       | taking jobs.
        
       | marginalia_nu wrote:
       | Funny how the dip started years before we had meaningful AI
       | codegen.
       | 
       | Could speculate this is likely to be a shift in what gets funded
       | and invested in.
        
         | islandfox100 wrote:
         | That's because it's a macroecon dip, and the effect of AI on
         | hiring has been greatly pre-empted as excuse
        
           | RealityVoid wrote:
           | Yes, it's not that the company is doing badly, we're right
           | sizing because of AI!
        
       | tokyobreakfast wrote:
       | This industry is a race to the bottom and long overdue for a
       | massive salary reset. There is no society on Earth where someone
       | who codes JavaScript (poorly) should make more money than, say, a
       | doctor. Yet here we are.
        
         | honeycrispy wrote:
         | A lot of doctors are just pill prescribers. I can't tell you
         | how many times I've been to useless doctors that don't help and
         | give you a big fat bill on the way out the door.
        
         | caminante wrote:
         | How much do you think doctors make?
        
           | tokyobreakfast wrote:
           | Some make less than new grads at AMZN with 0 YOE.
        
             | caminante wrote:
             | _> Some_
             | 
             | You're really playing loose with the Venn diagram here.
             | 
             | Only "some" Amazon SWEs would "code JavaScript (poorly)."
        
               | tokyobreakfast wrote:
               | Yet they're all expendable because their chosen skills
               | are not essential for society to survive. They could all
               | disappear tomorrow and the web and everything around it
               | would move on.
        
       | gzoo wrote:
       | What happens when AI gets so good that even "Juniors" can compete
       | with "Seniors"? It's going to happen at SOME point. I think what
       | will separate devs will be their creativity and ideas. Those that
       | can think outside the box will be the ones getting hired. With
       | that said, I sometimes feel like eventually the OFFICE MANAGER
       | will be coding everything for their company lol.
        
         | hackmack10 wrote:
         | Software will become cheaper to write and more software will be
         | written. A senior will always outcompete a junior when it comes
         | to logical thinking and a true understanding of IT. A
         | programmer will always outcompete a non-programmer when it
         | comes to using AI tools.
         | 
         | Bottom line, if programmers are fucked, so is just about anyone
         | else.
        
       | byronic wrote:
       | yes, ha ha ha... yes
        
       | cmiles8 wrote:
       | Not dismissing that it's a tough market for some but folks also
       | need to learn how to read a chart. It shows a slight decline
       | following a massive expansion.
       | 
       | The primary thing going on in the market right now is a lot of
       | companies simply over-hired during the post Covid boom and
       | they're correcting for that.
        
         | raincole wrote:
         | Things look crazy around 2022 in hindsight.
        
           | kerbs wrote:
           | Looked crazy at the time too!
        
         | dmix wrote:
         | This has been pointed on HN about 50 times but the headlines
         | keep coming.
        
       | righthand wrote:
       | Did we ever leave the 2020 recession?
        
       | blobbers wrote:
       | If anyone saw that LinkedIn post about someone at Block resigning
       | guilt of being offered a raise and retention after the layoffs,
       | I'd say that is a signal that tech is heading down.
       | 
       | Most people would be thankful to have a secure well paying job in
       | the post AI blow off; increasingly it's going to harder to
       | differentiate yourself against anyone else using AI. That we have
       | people still in the thick of AI that don't understand that is a
       | strong signal that AI boom is still going to come take some jobs.
       | 
       | If you're in a software related role and AI isn't making you more
       | productive, it's on YOU as a dev to figure things out quickly.
       | 
       | AI is coming for your job so you can either be an AI manager, or
       | you can get managed out for AI.
       | 
       | caveat: This is my take as someone who used to do a lot of hand
       | coding, and now regularly has a small team of AI doing anything
       | that would have normally required mostly brute coding strength
       | but not too much thought; that's facet'ed plots, refactoring
       | libraries, improving pipeline efficiency, adding parallelization
       | where possible, building presentations, adding test coverage.
        
         | ares623 wrote:
         | mmhmm. That's a lot of me me me. Are you reviewing others' work
         | who produce the same output as you?
        
       | thcipriani wrote:
       | This has a misleading title.
       | 
       | This chart shows that the rate of year-over-year, month-by-month
       | change is worse than 2020.
       | 
       | But the number of tech jobs has grown by 12% since April of 2020
       | (2.34M vs. 2.63M). Heck, there are more tech jobs today than at
       | the beginning of 2022 (2.61M), even.
       | 
       | Job market sucks, trend is bad, but post title is a misnomer for
       | what this chart shows.
       | 
       | (Numbers based on a quick grab BLS.gov data of CES6054151101
       | (Custom Computer Programming Services) + CES5051800001 (Computing
       | Infrastructure Providers, Data Processing & Web Hosting) +
       | CES6054151201 (Computer Systems Design Services)---couldn't find
       | other ones quickly and gave up :))
        
       | gusfoo wrote:
       | Nota bene: these aren't "tech" jobs, these are "laptop job" over-
       | hired email people. Not real people.
        
       | commandlinefan wrote:
       | I've had my suspicions - this seems way worse than anything I
       | remember before. I think right now is worse than the 2000 dot-com
       | bust, too.
        
       | 999900000999 wrote:
       | I've been lucky enough to stay employed, but eating a massive pay
       | cut hurts. I have no realistic hope of getting back to my peak
       | salary anytime soon .
       | 
       | Jobs are now significantly more demanding too, do more and make
       | less.
        
       | jrsj wrote:
       | If things continue to get worse I really worry how many people
       | might give up on life entirely. A lot of people in this industry
       | don't have a whole lot else going on for them, myself included.
       | 
       | I grinded my 20s away trying to have a successful career and if
       | that just gets pulled out from under me I've got absolutely
       | nothing.
        
         | colesantiago wrote:
         | And AI will just shut out people just starting their careers
         | 
         | Too bad I guess.
        
         | kilroy123 wrote:
         | I know a very senior engineer who took their life the day after
         | Trump was elected. He was unemployed for a while.
         | 
         | While I think a lot more was going on with him than being
         | unemployed, I'm convinced AI hitting the scene had a bit to do
         | with it. They were an older dev 50+.
        
       | eunos wrote:
       | After reading many anecdotes of top school alumni struggling to
       | even secure some interviews, I'm really curious about what
       | opportunities available for median American freshgrads e.g. 3.0
       | GPA from T100-200 Unis.
        
       | jokoon wrote:
       | People constantly tell me "oh you're a dev it's easy to find
       | work"
       | 
       | I'm a c++ dev, with excellent senior tests, but low experience,
       | and no degree in France. 3 years without a job.
       | 
       | I yearn for a new pandemic.
       | 
       | Fortunately, I learned how to live without a job, found other
       | things to do and how to live a life. Welfare is generous, and I
       | have good savings.
       | 
       | Honestly I don't really want to work in software anymore. If
       | there is a job offer and recruiters are calling me, I answer and
       | I accept.
       | 
       | But I'm not applying to all positions I can see and I won't run
       | after them.
        
         | cyberpunk wrote:
         | I've never really found there to be all that much of a market
         | for specifically c++ developers. If you do decide to look for
         | work more seriously I wouldn't be too hung up on language, if
         | you can code in one you can pretty much code in all of them,
         | and I've never hired a developer for specific language skill
         | outside of a few rare cases it's something really specific we
         | are trying to fix (e.g erlang or something), even then it
         | wouldn't be a complete showstopper.
         | 
         | YMMV but that's coming from a guy who writes in at least 3
         | languages at current $dayjob.
        
         | hshsiejensjsj wrote:
         | > Fortunately, I learned how to live without a job, found other
         | things to do and how to live a life. Welfare is generous
         | 
         | Oh to be French
        
       | spacebuffer wrote:
       | I am in my 20s. At the moment I've got a part time job, but I am
       | preparing myself for the worse. In the next few years I am
       | planning to volunteer at farms through workaway. Maybe one day I
       | can become self sustainable,tech and nutrition wise
       | 
       | also getting into plumbing, curious to see what others are doing
       | in this regard.
        
       | Bombthecat wrote:
       | Don't worry, it will go up again! Just keep at it!
        
       | dasil003 wrote:
       | The graph does a really poor job supporting the conclusion, most
       | obviously because it only goes back to 2016, the peak of boom
       | times, it doesn't go anywhere near 2008 so why does the caption
       | talk about that? Just this same graph alone going back to 1990
       | would be super eye-opening.
       | 
       | The other thing is it's showing first derivative, not absolute
       | numbers, which is a very questionable way to derive "worst
       | employment situation" in a field that has been on world-changing
       | boom over the last 50 years.
        
         | stemlord wrote:
         | Theres a zoomed out version immediately below that tweet.
         | 
         | https://x.com/JosephPolitano/status/2029916369056079975
        
       | moomoo11 wrote:
       | Good. Too many useless people got into tech because any monkey
       | can memorize LC and outperform the monkey who also memorized LC
       | and now is part of the interview panel so they can show off to
       | the other monkeys that he deserves more bananas.
       | 
       | Tech was and still is the easiest way to make 200k base salary,
       | before even thinking about the stock.
       | 
       | We need a reset and anyone who can't make it can go fill the jobs
       | we need in construction, education, etc.
        
       | post_break wrote:
       | My friend who has worked for some big name companies is
       | absolutely struggling to find work. So many interviews, 3rd, 4th
       | round, and then they go with another candidate, or I can only
       | assume someone internally and the listing never existed. It's
       | killing me watching him struggle to find work.
        
       | asah wrote:
       | That's cute. 2001 and 1993 have entered the chat.
        
       | agentultra wrote:
       | Good to know it's not just me. Sheesh. Are there signs that it'll
       | bounce back again?
       | 
       | I've been looking for work for nearly seven months. I can write
       | low level systems code in C and C++ to web applications in Python
       | and compilers in Haskell. I have tons of industry experience.
       | 
       | Yet most places I apply to ghost me or follow up a month later
       | that the position has been filled.
       | 
       | Companies that have been lying off people claim they are seeing
       | record profits.
       | 
       | It seems like we went from a relatively stable growth to just
       | chaos.
        
       | Frogeman wrote:
       | As an employer it's very very hard to actually discern who did CS
       | as a prestige degree vs people who are actually into it.
       | 
       | Signal v noise ratio so much higher in hardware, nobody
       | performatively studies mechanical engineering to make $60k in
       | ohio.
        
       | coolThingsFirst wrote:
       | I can't even get an interview.
       | 
       | The most recent one few months ago and I passed it with great
       | score, top 5% of candidates etc but that wasn't enough to get me
       | hired.
       | 
       | Terrible market, i'm at my wits end to even how to approach this.
        
       | lgleason wrote:
       | So much for that golden age.
        
       | joelhammer wrote:
       | Wait until the fallout of all that AI code hitting produciton
        
       | joelhammer wrote:
       | Wait until all that AI generated code hits production on safety
       | devices and they need to explain it in court.
        
       | benbojangles wrote:
       | I don't really agree, i am making more money now than ever.
        
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