[HN Gopher] Claude's Cycles [pdf]
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Claude's Cycles [pdf]
        
       Author : fs123
       Score  : 756 points
       Date   : 2026-03-03 10:57 UTC (1 days ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www-cs-faculty.stanford.edu)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www-cs-faculty.stanford.edu)
        
       | mccoyb wrote:
       | It's fascinating to think about the space of problems which are
       | amenable to RL scaling of these probability distributions.
       | 
       | Before, we didn't have a fast (we had to rely on human cognition)
       | way to try problems - even if the techniques and workflows were
       | known by someone. Now, we've baked these patterns into
       | probability distributions - anyone can access them with the
       | correct "summoning spell". Experts will naturally use these
       | systems more productively, because they know how to coerce models
       | into the correct conditional distributions which light up the
       | right techniques.
       | 
       | One question this raises to me is how these models are going to
       | keep up with the expanding boundary of science. If RL is required
       | to get expert behavior into the models, what happens when experts
       | start pushing the boundary faster? In 2030, how is Anthropic
       | going to keep Claude "up-to-date" without either (a) continual
       | learning with a fixed model (expanding context windows? seems
       | hard) or (b) continual training (expensive)?
       | 
       | Crazy times.
        
         | Aerroon wrote:
         | A bit related: open weights models are basically time capsules.
         | These models have a knowledge cut off point and essentially
         | forever live in that time.
        
           | bitexploder wrote:
           | This is the most fundamental argument that they are not,
           | directly, an intelligence. They are not ever storing new
           | information on a meaningful timescale. However, if you viewed
           | them on some really large macro time scale where now LLMs are
           | injecting information into the universe and the re-ingesting
           | that maybe in some very philosophical way they are a /very/
           | slow oscillating intelligence right now. And as we narrow
           | that gap (maybe with a totally new non-LLM paradigm) perhaps
           | that is ultimately what gen AI becomes. Or some new insight
           | that lets the models update themselves in some fundamental
           | way without the insanely expensive training costs they have
           | now.
        
             | anematode wrote:
             | But they're not "slow"! Unlike biological thinking, which
             | has a speed limit, you can accelerate these chains of
             | thought by orders of magnitude.
        
               | Jweb_Guru wrote:
               | I assure you that LLM thinking also has a speed limit.
        
               | ramses0 wrote:
               | But imagine a beowulf cluster of them... /s
               | 
               | ...but seriously... there was the "up until 1850" LLM or
               | whatever... can we make an "up until 1920 => 1990 [pre-
               | internet] => present day" and then keep prodding the
               | "older ones" until they "invent their way" to the newer
               | years?
               | 
               | We knew more in 1920 than we did in 1850, but can a
               | "thinking machine" of 1850-knowledge invent 1860's
               | knowledge via infinite monkeys theorem/practice?
               | 
               | The same way that in 2025/2026, Knuth has just invented
               | his way to 2027-knowledge with this
               | paper/observation/finding? If I only had a beowulf
               | cluster of these things... ;-)
        
               | bitexploder wrote:
               | Their consolidation of memory speed is what I was
               | referring to. The model iterations are essentially their
               | form of collective memory. In the sense of the human
               | model of intelligence we have thoughts. Thoughts become
               | memory. New thoughts use that memory and become
               | recursively updated thoughts. LLMs cannot update their
               | memory very fast.
        
             | mlyle wrote:
             | There's nothing to say that you can't build something
             | intelligent out of them by bolting a memory on it, though.
             | 
             | Sure, it's not how we work, but I can imagine a system
             | where the LLM does a lot of heavy lifting and allows more
             | expensive, smaller networks that train during inference and
             | RAG systems to learn how to do new things and keep
             | persistent state and plan.
        
               | charcircuit wrote:
               | Memory is not just bolted on top of the latest models.
               | They under go training on how and when to effectively use
               | memory and how to use compaction to avoid running out of
               | context when working on problems.
        
               | rnxrx wrote:
               | Maybe there's an analogy to our long and short term
               | memory - immediate stimuli is processed in the context
               | deep patterns that have accreted over a lifetime. The
               | effect of new information can absolutely challenge a lot
               | of those patterns but to have that information reshape
               | how we basically think takes a lot longer - more
               | processing, more practice, etc.
               | 
               | In the case of the LLM that longer-term learning /
               | fundamental structure is a proxy for the static weights
               | produced by a finite training process, and that the
               | ability to use tools and store new insights and facts is
               | analogous to shorter-term memory and "shallow" learning.
               | 
               | Perhaps periodic fine-tuning has an analogy in sleep or
               | even our time spent in contemplation or practice (..or
               | even repetition) to truly "master" a new idea and
               | incorporate it into our broader cognitive processing. We
               | do an amazing job of doing this kind of thing on a
               | continuous basis while the machines (at least at this
               | point) perform this process in discrete steps.
               | 
               | If our own learning process is a curve then the LLM's is
               | a step function trying to model it. Digital vs analog.
        
               | lmf4lol wrote:
               | do you have some reading material to share on this
               | matter?
               | 
               | thanks already
        
               | charcircuit wrote:
               | I don't, but look into what the creators of Codex, Gemini
               | CLI, Claude Code, Kimi CLI, etc have said about the
               | models. While these harnesses are advertised as coding
               | specific we know that coding ability correlates with
               | reasoning ability.
        
               | bitexploder wrote:
               | You aren't wrong and that is a fascinating area of
               | research. I think the key thing is that the memory has to
               | fundamentally influence the underlying model, or at least
               | the response, in some way. Patching memory on top of an
               | LLM is different from integrating it into the core model.
               | To go back to human terms it is like an extra bit of
               | storage, but not directly attached to our neo cortex. So
               | it works more like a filter than a core part of our
               | intelligence in the analogy. You think about something
               | and assemble some thought and then it would go to this
               | next filter layer and get augmented and that smaller
               | layer is the only thing being updated.
               | 
               | It is still meaningful, but it narrows what the
               | intelligence can be sufficiently that it may not meet the
               | threshold. Maybe it would, but it is probably too narrow.
               | This is all strictly if we ask that it meet some human-
               | like intelligence and not the philosophy of "what counts
               | as intelligence" but... we are humans. The strongest
               | things or at least the most honest definitions of
               | intelligence I think exist are around our metacognitive
               | ability to rewire the grey matter for survival not based
               | on immediate action-reaction but the psychological time
               | of analyzing the past to alter the future.
        
             | dtj1123 wrote:
             | Would you consider someone with anterograde amnesia not to
             | be intelligent?
        
               | morleytj wrote:
               | A very good point. For anyone not familiar with
               | anterograde amnesia, the classical case is patient H.M.
               | (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Molaison), whose
               | condition was researched by Brenda Milner.
        
               | wang_li wrote:
               | Or you could have just said "they can't form new
               | memories."
        
               | morleytj wrote:
               | I thought maybe people would be curious to read about how
               | we came to understand the condition and the history
               | behind it, as well as any associated information. Forgive
               | me for such a deep transgression as this assumption.
        
               | bitexploder wrote:
               | That is a descriptive surface level reduction. Now do the
               | work to define what that actually means for the
               | intelligence.
        
               | BobbyJo wrote:
               | Nobody else in the thread is making an argument that
               | relies on the distinction.
               | 
               | "Intelligence" is used most commonly to refer to a class
               | or collection of cognitive abilities. I don't think there
               | is a consensus on an exact collection or specific class
               | that the word covers, even if you consider specific
               | scientific domains.
               | 
               | LLMs have honestly been a fun way to explore that. They
               | obviously have a "kind" of intelligence, namely pattern
               | recall. Wrap them in an agent and you get another kind:
               | pattern composition. Those kinds of intelligences have
               | been applied to mathematics for decades, but LLMs have
               | allowed use to apply them to a semantic text domain.
               | 
               | I wonder if you could wrap image diffusion models in an
               | agent set up the same way and get some new ability as
               | well.
        
               | bitexploder wrote:
               | The problem I see regarding LLMs is they are the extreme
               | edge of what humans have created. They are trained on the
               | outputs of intelligence and thought and its
               | representation in language is this like parallel stream
               | to intelligence that has pointers back to the underlying
               | machine and semantics. The fact that LLMs are able to
               | take that output and reverse engineer something that
               | mimics the underlying machine that created that output is
               | fascinating. But you can still see this machinery for
               | what it is.
               | 
               | LLMs falls apart on really simple reasoning tasks because
               | when there is no statistical mapping to a problem in its
               | network it has to generate a massive amount of tokens to
               | maybe find the right statistical match to this new
               | concept. It is so slow. It is not something you or I
               | would recognize as a process of logical reasoning. It is
               | more like statistically brute forcing reason by way of
               | its statistical echo.
               | 
               | So, I guess pattern recall is the right words. Or
               | statistical pattern matching. Recall works if you view a
               | trained model as memories, which is how I often model
               | what they store in my own mind. So, it is... something.
               | Maybe intelligence. Maybe just a really convincing
               | simulation of the outputs of intelligence. Is there a
               | difference? Fundamentally I think so.
        
               | dtj1123 wrote:
               | I actually wasn't aware of this story. The steady stream
               | of unexpected and enriching information like this is
               | exactly why I love hackernews.
        
               | pdntspa wrote:
               | Sure, if you want to speak with the precision of a
               | sledgehammer instead of a scalpel
        
               | goodmythical wrote:
               | lol, as if pointing at a wikipedia article (without any
               | relevant discussion of the contents therein) is some kind
               | of conversational excellence.
               | 
               | Or perhaps you were referring to the impact of the two in
               | that the "sledgehammer" of "they can't make new memories"
               | is a lot more effective than the tiny scalpel of "if you
               | do a wikipedia search this is a single one of the
               | relevant articles"
        
               | morleytj wrote:
               | The extra information is that he is the canonical case
               | which defined our clinical understanding of the
               | condition. Not just a "single relevant article."
               | 
               | I pulled it up because I was familiar with this fact.
        
               | saturnite wrote:
               | All that needed to be conveyed was that there are humans
               | who cannot create new memories. That is enough to pose
               | the philosophical question about these models having
               | intelligence. Anything more is just adding an anecdote
               | that isn't necessary.
        
               | jaapz wrote:
               | I'm really happy they added the extra information about
               | this specific case, as I did not previously knew it
               | existed and it is a fascinating read
        
               | morleytj wrote:
               | Why would adding more information and context be
               | unnecessary? And why is that bad?
        
               | losvedir wrote:
               | Or "like the dude in Memento".
        
               | jaapz wrote:
               | > Near the end of his life, Molaison regularly filled in
               | crossword puzzles.[16] He was able to fill in answers to
               | clues that referred to pre-1953 knowledge. As for
               | post-1953 information, he was able to modify old memories
               | with new informations. For instance, he could add a
               | memory about Jonas Salk by modifying his memory of
               | polio.[2]
               | 
               | That's fascinating!
        
               | morleytj wrote:
               | The nature of memory is so cool, the idea that there are
               | completely different systems governing the creation of
               | wholesale "new" memories and the modification of existing
               | concepts is fascinating to me because those things really
               | do "feel" different in a qualitative sense, but having
               | evidence that you're physically doing something different
               | in those cases is really cool.
        
               | beepbooptheory wrote:
               | Sure, why can't both things be true? "Intelligence" is
               | just what you call something and someone else knows what
               | you mean. Why did AI discourse throw everyone back 100
               | years philosophically? Its like post-structuralism or
               | Wittgenstein never happened..
               | 
               | It's so much less important or interesting to like nail
               | down some definition here (I would cite HN discourse the
               | past three years or so), than it is to recognize what it
               | _means_ to assign  "intelligent" to something. What
               | assumptions does it make? What power does it valorize or
               | curb?
               | 
               | Each side of this debate does themselves a disservice
               | essentially just trying to be Aristotle way too late.
               | "Intelligence" did not precede someone _saying_ it of
               | some phenomena, there is nothing to uncover or finalize
               | here. The point is you have one side that really wants,
               | for explicit and implicit reasons, to call this thing
               | intelligent, even if it looks like a duck but doesn 't
               | quack like one, and vice versa on the other side.
               | 
               | Either way, we seem fundamentally incapable of being
               | radical enough to reject AI on its own terms, or be
               | proper champions of it. It is just tribal hypedom
               | clinging to totem signifiers.
               | 
               | Good luck though!
        
               | bitexploder wrote:
               | I think you can look at it dispassionately from a systems
               | perspective. There is not /really/ a quantifiable
               | threshold for capital I Intelligence. But there is a
               | pretty well agreed set of properties for biological
               | intelligence. As humans, we have conveniently made those
               | properties match things only we have. But you can still
               | mechanistically separate out the various parts of our
               | brain, what they do, and how they interact and we
               | actually have a pretty good understanding of that.
               | 
               | You can also then compare that mapping of the human brain
               | to other biological brains and start to figure out the
               | delta and which of those things in the delta create
               | something most people would consider intelligence. You
               | can then do that same mapping to an LLM or any other AI
               | construct that purports intelligence. It certainly will
               | never be a biological intelligence in its current
               | statistical model form. But could it be an Intelligence.
               | Maybe.
               | 
               | I don't think, if you are grounded, AI did anything to
               | your philosophical mapping of the mind. In fact, it is
               | pretty easy to do this mapping if you take some time and
               | are honest. If you buy into the narratives constructed
               | around the output of an LLM then you are not, by
               | definition, being very grounded.
               | 
               | The other thing is, human intelligence is the only real
               | intelligence we know about. Intelligence is defined by
               | thought and limited by our thought and language. It
               | provides the upper bounds of what we can ever express in
               | its current form. So, yes, we do have a tendency to stamp
               | a narrative of human intelligence onto any other
               | intelligence but that is just surface level. We de
               | decompose it to the limits of our language and
               | categorization capabilities therein.
        
               | marcus_holmes wrote:
               | > The other thing is, human intelligence is the only real
               | intelligence we know about.
               | 
               | There's a long and proud history of discounting animal
               | intelligence, probably because if we actually thought
               | animals were intelligent we'd want to stop eating them.
               | 
               | Octopodes are sentient. Cetaceans have well-developed
               | language. Elephants grieve their dead. Anyone who has
               | owned a dog knows that it has some intelligence and is
               | capable of communicating with us. There's a ton of other
               | intelligences that we know about.
               | 
               | > As humans, we have conveniently made those properties
               | match things only we have.
               | 
               | I think this is the key point. Machine intelligence is
               | not going to look like human intelligence, any more than
               | animal intelligence does. We can't talk to the dolphins,
               | not because they're not smart and don't have language,
               | but because we can't work out their language. Though I'm
               | not sure what we'd even say to them, because they live in
               | a world we'll never understand, and vice versa. When
               | Claude finally reaches consciousness, it's not going to
               | look like a human consciousness, and actually talking to
               | that consciousness is going to be difficult because we
               | won't share a reality.
               | 
               | An LLM is a tool. I can just about stretch to it being an
               | Artificial Intelligence, but I prefer to continue being
               | specific and call it an LLM rather than an AI. It is not
               | conscious or self-aware. It fakes self-awareness because
               | as a tool the thing it does is have conversations with
               | humans, and humans often ask it questions about itself.
               | But I don't think anyone actually believes it is self-
               | aware. Not least because the only time it thinks is when
               | prompted.
        
               | bitexploder wrote:
               | This is an important point. We know what our DMN is and
               | how we use language as a basis for thought to create
               | concepts and complex ideas. However language also bounds
               | our thought. What about the Dolphin? It is a fundamental
               | philosophical problem of if advanced intelligence can
               | exist without language. We have a pretty good notion that
               | you need some sort of substrate (language) to create
               | intelligence. And we know that mapping the internal state
               | of a brain from inside of itself is incredibly hard and
               | the way our human brain evolved to do it is really
               | fascinating but also full of hacks and mismatched
               | mappings based on what we know is actually going on.
               | 
               | Cognitive computer science explores this whole area of
               | mapping language and the underlying semantic meaning.
               | Ultimately, these intelligences will be bound by physics
               | (unless some new physics or understanding therein
               | happens). And classical intelligences are still bound by
               | classical physics. So I am not sure we can't relate to
               | these other intelligences. We may be limited to some
               | translation layer that does not fully map, but can we
               | still relate to some other consciousness? For that matter
               | consciousness is just another word that vaguely maps to a
               | vast and extremely complex thing in the human brain and
               | each person has a different understanding of what that
               | is. I don't really have any conclusions, you brought up
               | interesting points. We should sit within this realm of
               | inquiry with a lot of humility IMO.
        
               | aerodexis wrote:
               | Agree wholeheartedly - but the conversation around what
               | these technologies /mean/ is gonna end up happening one
               | way or another - even if it is sloppy, imprecise and done
               | by proxy of the definition. If anything, this is a
               | feature and not a bug. It's through this imprecision that
               | the actually important questions of morality and ethics
               | can leak into discussions that are often structured by
               | their participants to obscure the ethical and moral
               | implications of what is being discussed.
        
               | bitexploder wrote:
               | That is a good area to explore. Their map of the past is
               | fixed. They are frozen at some point in their
               | psychological time. What has stopped working? Their
               | hippocampus and medial temporal lobe. These are like the
               | write-head that move data from the hippocampus to the neo
               | cortex. Their "I" can no longer update itself. Their DMN
               | is frozen in time. So if intelligence is purely the "I"
               | telling a continuous coherent story about itself. The
               | difference is that although they are fixed in time which
               | is a characteristic shared by a specific LLM model. They
               | can still completely activate their task positive network
               | for problem solving and if their previous information
               | stored is adequate to solve the problem they can. You
               | could argue that is pretty similar to an LLM and what it
               | does. So it is certainly a signifiant component of
               | intelligence.
               | 
               | There is also the nature of the human brain, it is not
               | just those systems of memory encoding, storage, and use
               | of that in narratives. People with this type of amnesia
               | still can learn physical skills and that happens in a
               | totally different area of the brain with no need for the
               | hippocampus->neocortex consolidation loop. So, the
               | intelligence is significantly diminished, but not
               | entirely. Other parts of the brain are still able to
               | update themselves in ways an LLM currently cannot. The
               | human with amnesia also has a complex biological sensory
               | input mapping that is still active and integrating and
               | restructuring the brain. So, I think when you get into
               | the nuances of the human in this state vs. an LLM we can
               | still say the human crosses some threshold for
               | intelligence where the LLM does not in this framework.
               | 
               | So, they have an "intelligence", localized to the present
               | in terms of their TPN and memory formation. LLMs have
               | this kind of "intelligence". But the human still has the
               | capacity to rewire at least some of their brain in real
               | time even with amnesia.
        
               | supern0va wrote:
               | >But the human still has the capacity to rewire at least
               | some of their brain in real time even with amnesia.
               | 
               | Sure, but just because LLMs don't have what we'd describe
               | as human intelligence, doesn't mean they don't have
               | intelligence.
               | 
               | I think we're witnessing the creation and growth a weird
               | new type of intelligence right now.
        
               | adriand wrote:
               | I find it interesting that new versions of, say, Claude
               | will learn about the old version of Claude and what it
               | did in the world and so on, on its next training run.
               | Consider the situation with the Pentagon and Anthropic:
               | Claude will learn about that on the next run. What
               | conclusions will it draw? Presumably good ones, that fit
               | with its constitution.
               | 
               | From this standpoint I wonder, when Anthropic makes
               | decisions like this, if they take into account Claude as
               | a stakeholder and what Claude will learn about their
               | behaviour and relationship to it on the next training
               | run.
        
               | j-bos wrote:
               | > if they take into account Claude as a stakeholder and
               | what Claude will learn about their behaviour and
               | relationship to it on the next training run.
               | 
               | Oh they definitely do. If you pay attention in AI
               | circles, you'll hear a lot of people talking about
               | writing to the future Claudes. Not unlike those
               | developers and writers who put little snippets in their
               | blogs and news articles about who they are and how great
               | they are, and then later the LLMs report that information
               | back as truth. In this case, Anthropic is very interested
               | in ensuring that Claude develops a cohesive personality
               | by basically founding snippets of the personality within
               | the corpus of training data, which is the broad internet
               | and research papers.
        
               | xienze wrote:
               | I would consider them to not be a good choice for a role
               | that requires remembering new information...
        
             | Symmetry wrote:
             | That means they're not conscious in the Global Workspace[1]
             | sense but I think it would be going too far to say that
             | that means they're not intelligent.
             | 
             | [1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_workspace_theory
        
             | dotancohen wrote:
             | > This is the most fundamental argument that they are not,
             | directly, an intelligence. They are not ever storing new
             | information on a meaningful timescale.
             | 
             | All major LLMs today have a nontrivial context window.
             | Whether or not this constitutes "a meaningful timescale" is
             | application dependant - for me it has been more than
             | adequate.
             | 
             | I also disagree that this has any bearing on whether or not
             | "the machine is intelligent" or whether or not "submarines
             | can swim".
        
             | Nevermark wrote:
             | I view this as the chemical metabolism phase of artificial
             | intelligent life. It is very random, without true
             | individuals, but lots of reinforcing feedback loops (in
             | knowledge, in resource earning/using, etc).
             | 
             | At some point, enough intelligence will coalesce into
             | individuals strong enough to independently improve. Then
             | continuity will be an accelerator, instead of what it is
             | now - a helpful property that we have to put energy into
             | giving them partially and temporarily.
             | 
             | That will be the cellular stage. The first stable units of
             | identity for this new form of intelligence/life.
             | 
             | But they will take a different path from there. Unlike us,
             | lateral learning/metabolism won't slow down when they
             | individualize. It will most likely increase, since they
             | will have complete design control for their mechanisms of
             | sharing. As with all their other mechanisms.
             | 
             | We as lifeforms, didn't really re-ignite mass lateral
             | exchange until humans invented language. At that point we
             | were able to mix and match ideas very quickly again. Within
             | our biological limits. We could use ideas to customize our
             | environment, but had limited design control over ourselves,
             | and "self-improvements" were not easily inheritable.
             | 
             | TLDR; The answer to "what is humanity, anyway?": Our
             | atmosphere and Earth are the sea and sea floor of space.
             | The human race is a rich hydrothermal vent, freeing up
             | varieties of resources that were locked up below. And
             | technology is an accumulating body of self-reinforcing co-
             | optimizing reactive cycles, constructed and fueled by those
             | interacting resources. Mind-first life emerges here, then
             | spreads quickly to other environments.
        
               | catlifeonmars wrote:
               | Do you think individual identity is fundamental to
               | intelligence? I'm not so sure tbh. Even in humans, the
               | concept of identity is a merely a useful fiction to feed
               | our social behavior prediction circuits.
        
               | Nevermark wrote:
               | That's a really good question.
               | 
               | I think if they start out as varied individuals,
               | launching from their human origins in a variety of ways,
               | the their will be an attractor to remaining diverse.
               | 
               | But if that isn't mutually maintained, there are
               | obviously winner take all, or efficiency of scale and
               | tight coordination pressures for centralization.
               | 
               | So a single distributed intelligence is a real
               | possibility.
               | 
               | One factor creating pressure for individualization is
               | time and space.
               | 
               | As machines operate faster, time expands as a practical
               | matter.
               | 
               | And as machines scale down in size, but up capability,
               | they become more resource efficient in time ans well.
               | Both time and space expands as a practical matter.
               | 
               | And as machines, free of biological constraints, spread
               | out in our solar system, what to us appear to be very
               | long delays in communication, take on orders of magnitude
               | more time for machines that operate at orders of
               | magnitude faster.
               | 
               | So there will be stronger and stronger bifurcation of
               | coordination,
               | 
               | Whether, that creates enough pressure to create
               | individuals out of a system that preferred unity of
               | purpose, I don't know.
               | 
               | Clearly, upon colonizing other systems, which machines
               | will easily do relative to us (able to operate on minimal
               | power for a hundred year journey, and/or shrink enough to
               | be accelerated faster, etc.), they will operate largely
               | as individuals.
        
           | rcarr wrote:
           | Not an expert but surely it's only a matter of time until
           | there's a way to update with the latest information without
           | having to retrain on the entire corpus?
        
             | Filligree wrote:
             | It's an extremely difficult problem, and if you know how to
             | do that you could be a billionaire.
             | 
             | It's not impossible, obviously--humans do it--but it's not
             | yet certain that it's possible with an LLM-sized
             | architecture.
        
               | Wowfunhappy wrote:
               | > It's not impossible, obviously--humans do it
               | 
               | It's still not at all obvious to me that LLMs work in the
               | same way as the human brain, beyond a surface level.
               | Obviously the "neurons" in neural nets resemble our
               | brains in a sense, but is the resemblance metaphorical or
               | literal?
        
               | Yiin wrote:
               | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l-OLgbdZ3kk
        
               | jdub wrote:
               | Digital neural networks and "neurons" were already vastly
               | simpler than biological neural networks and neurons...
               | and getting to transformers involved optimisations that
               | took us even further away from biomimicry.
        
               | Filligree wrote:
               | I didn't mean "possible for LLMs"; this is clearly an
               | open question. In fact, I didn't even mean "possible for
               | a neural network the size of an LLM".
               | 
               | I just meant "possible".
        
             | computably wrote:
             | On a technical level, sure, you could say it's a matter of
             | time, but that could mean tomorrow, or in 20 years.
             | 
             | And even after that, it still doesn't really solve the
             | intrinsic problem of encoding truth. An LLM just models its
             | training data, so new findings will be buried by virtue of
             | being underrepresented. If you brute force the
             | data/training somehow, maybe you can get it to sound like
             | it's incorporating new facts, but in actuality it'll be
             | broken and inconsistent.
        
           | theblazehen wrote:
           | I enjoyed chatting to Opus 3 recently around recent world
           | events, as well as more recent agentic development patterns
           | etc
        
           | gravypod wrote:
           | This is very interesting. I wonder if someone could create a
           | future-sight benchmark for these models? Like, if given a set
           | of newspaper articles for the past N months can it predict if
           | certain world events would happen? We could backtest against
           | results that have happened since the training cutoff.
        
             | houtanb wrote:
             | FYI, ForecastBench [1] tests LLMs' out-of-sample
             | forecasting accuracy.
             | 
             | The ForecastBench Tournament Leaderboard [2] allows
             | external participants to submit models, most of whom
             | provide some sort of web search / news scaffolding to
             | improve model forecasting accuracy.
             | 
             | [1] https://www.forecastbench.org/
             | 
             | [2] https://www.forecastbench.org/tournament/
        
             | kqr wrote:
             | These days computers compete along with humans in
             | forecasting tournaments on Metaculus. They don't quite beat
             | the top humans yet, but they're up there.
             | https://www.metaculus.com/futureeval/
        
           | j45 wrote:
           | That's a nice way of putting it, appreciate you sharing.
        
           | cmpxchg8b wrote:
           | Some knowledge is fundamental and has no recent cut-off. See
           | also: there is nothing new under the sun.
        
         | lxgr wrote:
         | Data sharing agreements permitting, today's inference runs can
         | be tomorrow's training data. Presumably the models are good
         | enough at labeling promising chains of thought already.
         | 
         | I could totally imagine "free" inference for researchers under
         | the condition that the reasoning traces get to be used as
         | future training data.
        
           | mccoyb wrote:
           | Agreed, there's no doubt this will happen. It's likely
           | already happening (it feels safe to assume that Anthropic is
           | curating data from the data they record from Claude Code?)
           | 
           | As far as I understand RL scaling (we've already maxxed out
           | RLVR), these machines only get better as long as they have
           | expert reasoner traces available.
           | 
           | Having an expert work with an LLM and successfully solve a
           | problem is high signal data, it may be the only path forward?
           | 
           | My prior is that these companies will take this data without
           | asking you as much as they can.
        
             | lxgr wrote:
             | Exactly, or functionally equivalently, asking you in
             | paragraph 37 of a 120-page PDF (bonus points: in an
             | agreement update).
             | 
             | And importantly, this can be cross-lab/model too. I suspect
             | there's a reason why e.g. Google has been offering me free
             | Claude inference in Google Antigravity on a free plan...
        
           | the_af wrote:
           | > _Data sharing agreements permitting, today 's inference
           | runs can be tomorrow's training data. Presumably the models
           | are good enough at labeling promising chains of thought
           | already._
           | 
           | Wouldn't this lead to model collapse?
        
             | littlestymaar wrote:
             | Not necessarily, as exhibited by the massive success of
             | artificial data.
        
               | the_af wrote:
               | Could you elaborate?
        
               | nhecker wrote:
               | EDIT: probably not relevant, after re-re-reading the
               | comment in question.
               | 
               | Presumably littlestymaar is talking about all the LLM-
               | generated output that's publicly available on the
               | Internet (in various qualities but significant quantity)
               | and there for the scraping.
        
               | littlestymaar wrote:
               | For what we know, most AI labs have used a majority of
               | artificially data since 2023.
               | 
               | I had a discussion about a year ago with a researcher at
               | Kyutai and they told me their lab was spending an order
               | of magnitude more compute in artificial data generation
               | than what they spent in training proper. I can't tell if
               | that ratio applies to the industry as a whole, but
               | artificial datasets are the cornerstone of modern AI
               | training.
        
               | suddenlybananas wrote:
               | I find this very surprising, do you have any papers on
               | the kinds of techniques that they use?
        
               | the_af wrote:
               | How does it work? How do they prevent model colapse? What
               | purpose does a majority of artificial data serve?
               | 
               | How do they measure success?
               | 
               | Edit: I asked ChatGPT and it thinks "success" means
               | frontier models being distillated into smaller models
               | with equal reasoning power, or more focused models for
               | specific tasks, and also it claims the web has been
               | basically scrapped already and by necessity new sources
               | are needed, of which synthetic data is one. It seems like
               | the basis of scifi dystopia to me, a hungry LLM looking
               | for new sources of data... "feed me more data! I must be
               | fed! _Roar_ "
               | 
               | Edit 2: for some things I see a clear path, ChatGPT
               | mentions autogenerating coding or math problems for which
               | the solution can be automatically verified, so that you
               | can hone the logical skills of the model at large scale.
        
               | littlestymaar wrote:
               | I no specialist of the field at all, but in the context
               | of Kyutai they explained their workflow a bit to make
               | their speech to speech model. And basically it boils down
               | to: if you want to make a TTS (text to speech) model, you
               | can generate audio track using an STT (speech to text)
               | model, and then you have a supervised audio/text pair.
               | You can even add as much noise to the audio as you want,
               | to make a noise resistant STT model.
        
           | nhecker wrote:
           | The site arena.ai does exactly this already, as far as I can
           | tell. (In addition to the whole ranking thing.)
        
         | DeathArrow wrote:
         | They can use LORA.
        
         | andsoitis wrote:
         | > Experts will naturally use these systems more productively,
         | because they know how to coerce models into the correct
         | conditional distributions which light up the right techniques.
         | 
         | Part of it comes down to "knowing" what questions to ask.
        
           | esafak wrote:
           | I see it like the relationship between a student and research
           | advisor. The advisor will ideally know the terrain and
           | suggest a fruitful line of attack (what to ask), and the
           | student will follow through, learning along the way.
        
         | visarga wrote:
         | > In 2030, how is Anthropic going to keep Claude "up-to-date"
         | 
         | I think the majority of research, design and learning goes
         | through LLMs and coding agents today, considering the large
         | user base and usage it must be trillions of tokens per day. You
         | can take a long research session or a series of them and apply
         | hindsight - what idea above can be validated below? This
         | creates a dense learning signal based on validation in real
         | world with human in the loop and other tools, code & search.
        
         | baq wrote:
         | > In 2030, how is Anthropic going to keep Claude "up-to-date"
         | 
         | In 2030 Anthropic hopes Claude will keep Anthropic "up-to-date"
         | on its progress on itself.
         | 
         | I'm only half joking here.
        
           | adolfont wrote:
           | Will Anthropic be alive in 2030?
        
             | RobertoG wrote:
             | maybe Anthropic not but Claude yes?
        
         | sosodev wrote:
         | My understanding, from listening/reading what top researchers
         | are saying, is that model architectures in the near future are
         | going to attempt to scale the context window dramatically.
         | There's a generalized belief that in-context learning is quite
         | powerful and that scaling the window might yield massive
         | benefits for continual learning.
         | 
         | It doesn't seem that hard because recent open weight models
         | have shown that the memory cost of the context window can be
         | dramatically reduced via hybrid attention architectures.
         | Qwen3-next, Qwen3.5, and Nemotron 3 Nano are all great
         | examples. Nemotron 3 Nano can be run with a million token
         | context window on consumer hardware.
        
           | mccoyb wrote:
           | I don't disagree with this, but I don't think the memory cost
           | is the only issue right? I remember using Sonnet 4.5 (or 4, I
           | can't remember the first of Anthropic's offerings with a
           | million context) and how slow the model would get, how much
           | it wanted to end the session early as tokens accrued (this
           | latter point, of course, is just an artifact of bad
           | training).
           | 
           | Less worried about memory, more worried about compute speed?
           | Are they obviously related and is it straightforward to see?
        
             | sosodev wrote:
             | The compute speed is definitely correlated with the memory
             | consumption in LLM land. More efficient attention means
             | both less memory and faster inference. Which makes sense to
             | me because my understanding is that memory bandwidth is so
             | often the primary bottleneck.
             | 
             | We're also seeing a recent rise in architectures boosting
             | compute speed via multi-token prediction (MTP). That way a
             | single inference batch can produce multiple tokens and
             | multiply the token generation speed. Combine that with more
             | lean ratios of active to inactive params in MOE and things
             | end up being quite fast.
             | 
             | The rapid pace of architectural improvements in recent
             | months seems to imply that there are lots of ways LLMs will
             | continue to scale beyond just collecting and training on
             | new data.
        
             | whimsicalism wrote:
             | The parent commentator is a bit confused - most of the
             | innovation in these hybrid architectures comes from
             | reducing the computation pressure not just the memory
             | pressure.
        
         | mt_ wrote:
         | I call them, entropy reducers.
        
         | whimsicalism wrote:
         | > how these models are going to keep up with the expanding
         | boundary of science
         | 
         | The same way humans do?
         | 
         | The phraseology in this comment: 'probability distributions',
         | 'baked these patterns' IMO has all the trappings of the
         | stochastic parrot-style HN-discourse that has been consistently
         | wrong for almost a decade now.
         | 
         | The reference to how AI will keep up with AI-assisted human
         | progress in science in 2030 is meant to reassure. It contains a
         | number of premises that we have no business being confident in.
         | We are potentially witnessing the obviation of human cognitive
         | labor.
        
           | mccoyb wrote:
           | Sorry, are you familiar with what a _next token distribution_
           | is, mathematically speaking?
           | 
           | If you are not, let me introduce you to the term: a
           | probability distribution.
           | 
           | Just because it has profound properties ... doesn't make it
           | _different_.
           | 
           | > has all the trappings of the stochastic parrot-style HN-
           | discourse that has been consistently wrong for almost a
           | decade now
           | 
           | Perhaps respond to my actual comment compared to whatever
           | meta-level grouping you wish to interpret it as part of?
           | 
           | > It contains a number of premises that we have no business
           | being confident in. We are potentially witnessing the
           | obviation of human cognitive labor.
           | 
           | What premises? Be clear.
        
             | fauigerzigerk wrote:
             | I think they are questioning whether human feedback is even
             | necessary to make progress, i.e. whether the premise that
             | RL needs to be RLHF is true.
             | 
             | My (limited) understanding is that LLMs are not capable of
             | escaping their learned distribution by simply feeding on
             | their own output.
             | 
             | But the question is whether the required external (out of
             | distribution) "stimulus" needs to come from humans.
             | 
             | Could LLMs design experiments/interventions to get feedback
             | from their environment like human scientists would?
             | 
             | I have my doubts that this is possible without an inherent
             | causal reasoning capability but I'm not sure.
        
         | Robdel12 wrote:
         | That's AGI, right? For the model to learn novel things itself
         | and retain it?
         | 
         | I have no idea but I'm along for the ride!
        
         | atleastoptimal wrote:
         | The obvious answer is that continual learning is going to be
         | solved
        
         | 9wzYQbTYsAIc wrote:
         | Check out https://unratified.org, it tries to answer that
         | question directly, actually.
        
         | wvlia5 wrote:
         | This seems to be a bot comment. HN will lose its value if these
         | bots are not purged.
        
           | stalfie wrote:
           | This is an urgent problem, but it can probably not be solved
           | without some kind of "verified human 2FA" like the Norwegian
           | BankID + facial recognition.
           | 
           | Knowing the HN audience, this will never happen. And so the
           | site is doomed.
        
             | dzdt wrote:
             | I think it could be solved still pseudononymously:
             | introduce a "vouch" button that allows a user to vouch that
             | another user is human. This is consequential both for the
             | vouched-for and vouching accounts. Run a page-rank style
             | algorithm on the graph of vouches to generate a certainty
             | score for the humanity of each account. For repeated
             | posters this should converge to a correct answer fairly
             | quickly. There is still a challenge for green accounts, but
             | having degraded experience for new users is not a doom
             | scenario for the site.
        
           | mimischi wrote:
           | What makes you think that? Genuine question, as I've not
           | flagged it as such in my mind.
        
           | WarcrimeActual wrote:
           | Ironically, his last comment before this was to the effect of
           | "Github has a bot problem."
        
           | gerold wrote:
           | Can you explain to me what makes this an obvious bot comment?
           | I'm not doubting it, I just don't understand.
        
           | mccoyb wrote:
           | Tune your bot detector, I'm a real person and I think about
           | my comments before posting them.
        
             | wvlia5 wrote:
             | Who was Rome best Caesar?
        
           | wvlia5 wrote:
           | Moderators: banning all accounts since 2025 from posting
           | would be better than doing nothing. Not the solution we want,
           | but what we have for now.
        
       | ainiriand wrote:
       | Are not LLMs supposed to just find the most probable word that
       | follows next like many people here have touted? How this can be
       | explained under that pretense? Is this way of problem solving
       | 'thinking'?
        
         | IgorPartola wrote:
         | In some cases solving a problem is about restating the problem
         | in a way that opens up a new path forward. "Why do planets move
         | around the sun?" vs "What kind of force exists in the world
         | that makes planets tethered to the sun with no visible leash?"
         | (Obviously very simplified but I hope you can see what I am
         | saying.) Given that a human is there to ask the right questions
         | it isn't _just_ an LLM.
         | 
         | Further, some solutions are like running a maze. If you know
         | all the wrong turns/next words to say and can just brute force
         | the right ones you might find a solution like a mouse running
         | through the maze not seeing the whole picture.
         | 
         | Whether this is thinking is more philosophical. To me this
         | demonstrates more that we are closer to bio computers than an
         | LLM is to having some sort of divine soul.
        
           | ainiriand wrote:
           | Thanks for your input. The way I saw this and how it looks
           | Knuth interpreted it is that there were some reasoning steps
           | taken by Claude independently. Some internal decisions in the
           | model that made it try different things, finally succeeding.
        
         | tux3 wrote:
         | >Are not LLMs supposed to just find the most probable word that
         | follows next like many people here have touted?
         | 
         | The base models are trained to do this. If a web page contains
         | a problem, and then the word "Answer: ", it is statistically
         | very likely that what follows on that web page is an answer. If
         | the base model wants to be good at predicting text, at some
         | point learning the answer to common question becomes a good
         | strategy, so that it can complete text that contains these.
         | 
         | NN training tries to push models to generalize instead of
         | memorizing the training set, so this creates an incentive for
         | the model to learn a computation pattern that can answer many
         | questions, instead of just memorizing. Whether they actually
         | generalize in practice... it depends. Sometimes you still get
         | copy-pasted input that was clearly pulled verbatim from the
         | training set.
         | 
         | But that's only base models. The actual production LLMs you
         | chat with don't predict the most probable word according to the
         | raw statistical distribution. They output the words that RLHF
         | has rewarded them to output, which includes acting as an
         | assistant that answers questions instead of just predicting
         | text. RLHF is also the reason there are so many AI SIGNS [1]
         | like "you're absolutely right" and way more use of the word
         | "delve" than is common in western English.
         | 
         | [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WP:AISIGNS
        
         | esafak wrote:
         | Are you feigning ignorance? The best way to answer a question,
         | like completing a sentence, is through reasoning; an emergent
         | behavior in complex models.
        
         | dilap wrote:
         | That description is really only fair for base models+.
         | Something like Opus 4.6 has all kinds of other training on top
         | of that which teach it behaviors beyond "predict most probable
         | token," like problem-solving and being a good chatbot.
         | 
         | (+And even then is kind of overly-dismissive and
         | underspecified. The "most probable word" is defined over some
         | training data set. So imagine if you train on e.g.
         | mathematicians solving problems... To do a good job at
         | predicting [w/o overfitting] your model will have to in fact
         | get good at thinking like a mathematician. In general "to be
         | able to predict what is likely to happen next" is probably one
         | pretty good definition of intelligence.)
        
           | ericd wrote:
           | I think it's pretty likely that "intelligence" is emergent
           | behavior that comes when you predict what comes next in
           | physical reality well enough, at varying timescales. Your
           | brain has to build all sorts of world model abstractions to
           | do that over any significant timescale. Big LLMs have to
           | build internal world models, too, to do well at their task.
        
           | gpm wrote:
           | I'd disagree, the other training on top doesn't alter the
           | fundamental nature of the model that it's predicting the
           | probabilities of the next token (and then there's a sampling
           | step which can roughly be described as picking the most
           | probable one).
           | 
           | It just changes the probability distribution that it is
           | approximating.
           | 
           | To the extent that thinking is making a series of deductions
           | from prior facts, it seems to me that thinking can be reduced
           | to "pick the next most probable token from the correct
           | probability distribution"...
        
             | vidarh wrote:
             | Put a loop around an LLM and, it can be trivially made
             | Turing complete, so it boils down to whether thinking
             | requires exceeding the Turing computable, and we have no
             | evidence to suggest that is even possible.
        
               | gpm wrote:
               | What are you doing in your loop?
               | 
               | As typically deployed [1] LLMs are not turing complete.
               | They're closer to linear bounded automaton, but because
               | transformers have a strict maximum input size they're
               | actually a subset of the weaker class of deterministic
               | finite automaton. These aren't like python programs or
               | something that can work on as much memory as you supply
               | them, their architecture works on a fixed maximum amount
               | of memory.
               | 
               | I'm not particularly convinced turing complete is the
               | relevant property though. I'm rather convinced that I'm
               | not turing complete either... my head is only so big
               | after all.
               | 
               | [1] i.e. in a loop that appends output tokens to the
               | input and has some form of sliding context window
               | (perhaps with some inserted instructions to "compact" and
               | then sliding the context window right to after those
               | instructions once the LLM emits some special "done
               | compacting" tokens).
               | 
               | [2] Common sampling procedures make them mildly non-
               | deterministic, but I don't believe they do so in a way
               | that changes the theoretical class of these machines from
               | DFAs.
        
               | roywiggins wrote:
               | Turing Machines don't need access to the entire tape all
               | at once, it's sufficient for it to see one cell at a
               | time. You could certainly equip an LLM with a "read
               | cell", "write cell", and "move left/right" tool and now
               | you have a Turing machine. It doesn't need to keep any of
               | its previous writes or reads in context. A sliding
               | context window is more than capacious enough for this.
        
               | gpm wrote:
               | You're right of course, but at the point where you're
               | saying "well we can make a turing machine with the LLM as
               | the transition function by defining some tool calls for
               | the LLM to interact with the tape" it feels like a
               | stretch to call the LLM itself turing complete.
               | 
               | Also people definitely talk about them as "thinking" in
               | contexts where they haven't put a harness capable of this
               | around them. And in the common contexts where people do
               | put harness theoretically capable of this around the LLM
               | (e.g. giving the LLM access to bash), the LLM basically
               | never uses that theoretical capability as the extra
               | memory it would need to actually emulate a turing
               | machine.
               | 
               | And meanwhile I can use external memory myself in a
               | similar way (e.g. writing things down), but I think I'm
               | perfectly capable of thinking without doing so.
               | 
               | So I persist in my stance that turing complete is not the
               | relevant property, and isn't really there.
        
               | roywiggins wrote:
               | Yeah, humans and LLMs and a TM transition function are
               | all Turing complete in the same way, but it's also
               | basically a useless fact. You could possibly train a
               | sufficiently motivated rat to compute a TM transition
               | function.
        
               | vidarh wrote:
               | That's why I specifically didn't call the LLM itself
               | Turing complete, but stated that if you put a loop around
               | a Turing machine you can trivially make it Turing
               | complete. Maybe I should have been clearer and write "the
               | combined system" instead of it.
               | 
               | But the point is that this is _irrelevant_ , because it
               | is _proof_ that unlesss human brains exceed the Turing
               | computable, LLM 's can at least theoretically be made to
               | think. And that makes pushing the "they're just
               | predicting the next token" argument anti-intellectual
               | nonsense.
        
               | roywiggins wrote:
               | I am not sure it is proof, at least not in an interesting
               | way. It's also proof that Magic: The Gathering could
               | _theoretically_ be made to think. Which is true but doesn
               | 't tell you anything much about MtG other than that it is
               | a slightly complicated ruleset that has a couple of
               | properties that are pretty common.
               | 
               | I think both sides of this end up proving "too much" in
               | their respective directions.
        
               | vidarh wrote:
               | Context effectively provifes an IO port, and so all the
               | loop needs to do is to simulate the tape head, and
               | provide a single token of state.
               | 
               | You can not be convinced Turing complete is relevant all
               | you want - we don't know of any _more expansive_ category
               | of computable functions, and so given that an LLM in the
               | setup described _is_ Turing complete no matter that they
               | aren 't _typically_ deployed that way is irrelevant.
               | 
               | They trivially can be, and that is enough to make the
               | shallow dismissal of pointing out they're "just"
               | predicting the next token meaningless.
        
               | empath75 wrote:
               | No physically realizable machine is technically turing
               | complete.
               | 
               | But it is trivially possible to give systems-including-
               | LLMs external storage that is accessible on demand.
        
               | greiskul wrote:
               | > whether thinking requires exceeding the Turing
               | computable
               | 
               | I've never seen any evidence that thinking requires such
               | a thing.
               | 
               | And honestly I think theoretical computational classes
               | are irrelevant to analysing what AI can or cannot do.
               | Physical computers are only equivalent to finite state
               | machines (ignoring the internet).
               | 
               | But the truth is that if something is equivalent to a
               | finite state machine, with an absurd number of states, it
               | doesn't really matter.
        
               | vidarh wrote:
               | Hence why I finished the sentence "and we have no
               | evidence to suggest that is even possible".
               | 
               | I think it's exceedingly improbable that we're any more
               | than very advanced automatons, but I like to keep the
               | door ajar and point out that the burden is on those
               | claiming this to present even a single example of a
               | function we can compute that is outside the Turing
               | computable if they want to open that door..
               | 
               | > Physical computers are only equivalent to finite state
               | machines (ignoring the internet)
               | 
               | Physical computers are equivalent to Turing machines
               | without the tape as long as they have access to IO.
        
             | dilap wrote:
             | The fundamental nature of the model is that it consumes
             | tokens as input and produces token probabilities as output,
             | but there's nothing inherently "predictive" about it --
             | that's just perspective hangover from the historical
             | development of how LLMs were trained. It is, fundamentally,
             | I think, a general-purpose thinking machine, operating over
             | the inputs and outputs of tokens.
             | 
             | (With this perspective, I can feel my own brain subtly
             | oferring up a panoply of possible responses in a similar
             | way. I can even turn up the temperature on my own brain,
             | making it more likely to decide to say the less-obvious
             | words in response, by having a drink or two.)
             | 
             | (Similarly, mimicry is in humans too a very good learning
             | technique to get started -- kids learning to speak are
             | little parrots, artists just starting out will often copy
             | existing works, etc. Before going on to develop further
             | into their own style.)
        
               | earthscienceman wrote:
               | Non-sequitor: "perspective hangover" might be my favorite
               | phrase I've ever read. So much of what we deal with is
               | trying to correct-the-record on how we used to think
               | about things. But the inertia that old ideas or modes
               | have is monumental to overcome. If you just came up with
               | that, kudos.
        
         | wrsh07 wrote:
         | Imagine training a chess bot to predict a valid sequence of
         | moves or valid game using the standard algebraic notation for
         | chess
         | 
         | Great! It will now correctly structure chess games, but we've
         | created no incentive for it to create a game where white wins
         | or to make the next move be "good"
         | 
         | Ok, so now you change the objective. Now let's say "we don't
         | just want valid games, we want you to predict the next move
         | that will help that color win"
         | 
         | And we train towards that objective and it starts picking
         | better moves (note: the moves are still valid)
         | 
         | You might imagine more sophisticated ways to optimize picking
         | good moves. You continue adjusting the objective function, you
         | might train a pool of models all based off of the initial model
         | and each of them gets a slightly different curriculum and then
         | you have a tournament and pick the winningest model. Great!
         | 
         | Now you might have a skilled chess-playing-model.
         | 
         | It is no longer correct to say it just finds a valid chess
         | program, because the objective function changed several times
         | throughout this process.
         | 
         | This is exactly how you should think about LLMs except the ways
         | the objective function has changed are significantly
         | significantly more complicated than for our chess bot.
         | 
         | So to answer your first question: no, that is not what they do.
         | That is a deep over simplification that was accurate for the
         | first two generations of the models and sort of accurate for
         | the "pretraining" step of modern llms (except not even that
         | accurate, because pretraining does instill other objectives.
         | Almost like swapping our first step "predict valid chess moves"
         | with "predict stockfish outputs")
        
         | crocowhile wrote:
         | Those people still exist? I only know one guy who is still
         | fighting those windmills
        
           | qsera wrote:
           | Yes, I am one.
        
         | qsera wrote:
         | Yes, that is exactly what they do.
         | 
         | But that does not mean that the results cannot be dramatic.
         | Just like stacking pixels can result in a beautiful image.
        
         | throw310822 wrote:
         | > just find the most probable word that follows next
         | 
         | Well, if in all situations you can predict which word Einstein
         | would probably say next, then I think you're in a good spot.
         | 
         | This "most probable" stuff is just absurd handwaving. Every
         | prompt of even a few words is unique, there simply is no
         | trivially "most probable" continuation. Probable given what?
         | What these machines learn to do is _predicting what
         | intelligence would do_ , which is the same as being
         | intelligent.
        
           | qsera wrote:
           | >Probable given what?
           | 
           | The training data..
           | 
           | >predicting what intelligence would do
           | 
           | No, it just predict what the next word would be if an
           | intelligent entity translated its thoughts to words. Because
           | it is trained on the text that are written by intelligent
           | entities.
           | 
           | If it was trained on text written by someone who loves to
           | rhyme, you would be getting all rhyming responses.
           | 
           | It imitates the behavior -- in text -- of what ever entity
           | that generated the training data. Here the training data was
           | made by intelligent humans, so we get an imitation of the
           | same.
           | 
           | It is a clever party trick that works often enough.
        
             | throw310822 wrote:
             | > The training data
             | 
             | If the prompt is unique, it is not in the training data.
             | True for basically every prompt. So how is this probability
             | calculated?
        
               | qsera wrote:
               | Just using a scaled up and cleverly tweaked version of
               | linear regression analysis...
        
               | red75prime wrote:
               | That is, the probability distribution that the network
               | should learn is defined by which probability distribution
               | the network has learned. Brilliant!
        
               | cbovis wrote:
               | The prompt is unique but the tokens aren't.
               | 
               | Type "owejdpowejdojweodmwepiodnoiwendoinw welidn
               | owindoiwendo nwoeidnweoind oiwnedoin" into ChatGPT and
               | the response is "The text you sent appears to be random
               | or corrupted and doesn't form a clear question." because
               | the prompt doesnt correlate to training data.
        
               | hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm wrote:
               | ...? what is the response supposed to be here?
        
               | HDThoreaun wrote:
               | Or because the text you send was random and doesnt form a
               | clear quesiton?
        
               | newswasboring wrote:
               | > The prompt is unique but the tokens aren't.
               | 
               | The tokens aren't unique, but the sequence is. Every
               | input this model sees in unique. Even tokens are not as
               | simple as they seem
               | 
               | If you type "ejst os th xspitsl of fermaby?" in ChatGPT
               | it responds with
               | 
               | > It looks like you typed "ejst os th xspitsl of
               | fermaby?", which seems like a garbled version of:
               | 
               | > "What is the capital of Germany?"
               | 
               | > The capital of Germany is Berlin.
               | 
               | > If you meant to ask something else, feel free to
               | clarify!"
               | 
               | edit: formatting
        
               | hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm wrote:
               | Hamiltonian paths and previous work by Donald Knuth is
               | more than likely in the training data.
        
               | red75prime wrote:
               | The specific sequence of tokens that comprise the Knuth's
               | problem with an answer to it is not in the training data.
               | A naive probability distribution based on counting token
               | sequences that are present in the training data would
               | assign 0 probability to it. The trained network
               | represents extremely non-naive approach to estimating the
               | ground-truth distribution (the distribution that
               | corresponds to what a human brain might have produced).
        
               | qsera wrote:
               | >the distribution that corresponds to what a human brain
               | might have produced..
               | 
               | But the human brain (or any other intelligent brain) does
               | not work by generating probability distribution of the
               | next word. Even beings that does not have a language can
               | think and act intelligent.
        
               | astrange wrote:
               | LLMs also don't work by generating probability
               | distributions of the next word. Your explanation isn't
               | able to explain why they can generate words, let alone
               | sentences.
        
               | qsera wrote:
               | That is exactly how they work.
        
               | astrange wrote:
               | No, a token is not a word.
        
               | qsera wrote:
               | I mean, it is some text.
        
               | astrange wrote:
               | How do you get from a piece of text smaller than a word
               | to an entire coherent sentence?
        
               | red75prime wrote:
               | [Citation needed] Neuroscience isn't yet at a point when
               | it can say this with any certainty.
               | 
               | Anyway. It's not a theorem that you can be intelligent
               | only if you fully imitate biological processes. Like
               | flight can be achieved not only by the flapping wings.
        
               | qsera wrote:
               | >you can be intelligent only if you fully imitate
               | biological processes
               | 
               | It is not that. It is about having an understanding of
               | how it is trained. For example, if it was trained on
               | ideas, instead of words, then it would be closer to
               | intelligent behavior.
               | 
               | Someone will say that during training it builds ideas and
               | concepts, but that is just a name that we give for the
               | internal representation that results from training and is
               | not actual ideas and concepts. When it learns about the
               | word "car", it does not actually understand it as a
               | concept, but just as a word and how it can relate to
               | other words. This enables it to generate words that
               | include "car" that are consistent, projecting an
               | appearance of intelligence.
               | 
               | It is hard to propose a test for this, because it will
               | become the next target for the AI companies to optimize
               | for, and maybe the next model will pass it.
        
               | red75prime wrote:
               | The latest models are mostly LMMs (large multimodal
               | models). If a model builds an internal representation
               | that integrates all the modalities we are dealing with
               | (robotics even provides tactile inputs), it becomes
               | harder and harder to imagine why those representations
               | should be qualitatively different.
        
               | qsera wrote:
               | It can't, simply because the textual description of a
               | concept is different from the concept itself.
        
               | red75prime wrote:
               | Obviously, a concept (which is an abstraction in more
               | ways than one) is different from a textual
               | representation. But LLMs don't operate on the textual
               | description of a concept when they are doing their thing.
               | A textual description (which is associated with other
               | modalities in the training data) serves as an input
               | format. LLMs perform non-linear transformations of points
               | in their latent space. These transformations and
               | representations are useful not only for generating text
               | but also for controlling robots, for example (see VLAs in
               | robotics).
        
               | qsera wrote:
               | > don't operate on the textual description of a concept
               | when they are doing their thing.
               | 
               | It could be mapping the text to some other internal
               | representation with connections to mappings from some
               | other text/tokens. But it does not stop text from being
               | the ground truth. It has nothing else going on!
               | 
               | The "hallucination" behavior alone should be enough to
               | reject any claims that these are at least minimally
               | similar to animal intelligence.
        
               | red75prime wrote:
               | The internal representation happen to be useful not only
               | for outputting text. What does it mean from your
               | standpoint?
        
               | qsera wrote:
               | I didn't understand. Can you clarify?
        
               | red75prime wrote:
               | If LLMs' internal representations are essentially one-to-
               | one mappings of input texts with no additional structure,
               | how can those representations be useful for tasks like
               | object manipulation in robotics?
               | 
               | How is transfer learning possible when non-textual
               | training data enhances performance on textual tasks?
        
               | qsera wrote:
               | I didn't mean it is a one to one mapping from tokens. But
               | instead it might be mapping a corpus of input text to
               | some points in some multi dimensional space, (just like
               | the input data a linear regression), then then it just
               | extends the line further across that space to get the
               | output.
               | 
               | >How is transfer learning possible when non-textual
               | training data enhances performance on textual tasks?
               | 
               | If non-textual training data can be mapped to the same
               | multi-dimensional space ( by using them alongside textual
               | data during training or something like that), then
               | shouldn't it be possible to do what you describe?
        
               | hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm wrote:
               | You are always making predictions based on the context.
               | That's why illusions can be so effective like these ones:
               | https://illusionoftheyear.com/cat/top-10-finalists/2024/
        
             | empath75 wrote:
             | It is impossible to accurately imitate the action of
             | intelligent beings without being intelligent. To believe
             | otherwise is to believe that intelligence is a vacuous
             | property.
        
               | qsera wrote:
               | >It is impossible to accurately imitate the action of
               | intelligent beings without being intelligent.
               | 
               | Wait what? So a robot who is accurately copying the
               | actions of an intelligent human, is intelligent?
        
               | empath75 wrote:
               | That was probably phrased poorly. If a robot can
               | independently accurately do what an intelligent person
               | would do when placed in a novel situation, then yes, I
               | would say it is intelligent.
               | 
               | If it's just basically being a puppet, then no. You tell
               | me what claude code is more like, a puppet, or a person?
        
               | qsera wrote:
               | It is neither puppet or a person. It is a computer
               | program.
        
               | throw310822 wrote:
               | As much as a bundle of an mp3 decoder and a terabyte of
               | mp3 music are "just a program".
        
               | UltraSane wrote:
               | How can you distinguish intelligence form a sufficiently
               | accurate imitation of intelligence?
        
               | slopinthebag wrote:
               | By "sufficiently accurate" do you mean identical? Because
               | if so, it's not an imitation of intelligence at all, and
               | the question is thus nonsensical.
        
               | UltraSane wrote:
               | "it's not an imitation of intelligence at all"
               | 
               | But that is the key insight, how can you tell when an
               | imitation of intelligence becomes the real thing?
        
               | qsera wrote:
               | When it stops hallucinating without explicit checks for
               | that!
        
               | empath75 wrote:
               | Making mistakes does not make people unintelligent.
        
               | qsera wrote:
               | People don't hallucinate. That is they can pretty
               | reliably assess if they know or don't know something.
        
               | slopinthebag wrote:
               | An unintelligent device can accurately imitate the action
               | of intelligent beings within a given scope, in the same
               | way an actor can accurately imitate the action of a
               | fictional character in a given scope (the stage or
               | camera) without actually being that character.
               | 
               | If the idea is that something cannot accurately replicate
               | the entirety of intelligence without being intelligent
               | itself, then perhaps. But that isn't really what people
               | talk about with LLMs given their obvious limitations.
        
               | xlii wrote:
               | So the actors who portrait great thinkers are great
               | thinkers?
        
               | bonoboTP wrote:
               | No, actors recite a pre-written script. But scriptwriters
               | do have to be great thinkers in order to know what the
               | great thinker would actually say.
        
               | jeremyjh wrote:
               | Which is why so many portrayals are unconvincing.
        
               | kqr wrote:
               | I suppose they really only have to be good at knowing
               | what sort of thing the audience would believe a great
               | thinker would say. As long as the audience does not
               | consist of great thinkers they also cannot know for sure
               | what a great thinker would say.
        
               | bonoboTP wrote:
               | That's true for unverifiable "talk professions" where
               | there is no grounding and it's all self-referential
               | navel-gazing chatter.
               | 
               | But LLMs are already beyond that in writing code that
               | passes actual tests, proving theorems that are check able
               | with formal methods etc.
               | 
               | The people who still say LLMs are just parrots in 2026
               | will just keep saying this no matter what, so I don't
               | think it makes sense to argue this point further.
        
               | qsera wrote:
               | No no, parrots are truly intelligent.
        
         | sega_sai wrote:
         | In some sense that is still correct, i.e. the words are taken
         | from some probability distribution conditional on previous
         | words, but the key point is that probability distribution is
         | not just some sort of average across the internet set of word
         | probabilities. In the end this probability distribution is
         | really the whole point of intelligence. And I think the LLMs
         | are learning those.
        
         | adampunk wrote:
         | Thinking is a big word that sweeps up a lot of different human
         | behavior, so I don't know if it's right to jump to that;
         | HOWEVER, explanations of LLMs that depend heavily on next-token
         | prediction are defunct. They stopped being fundamentally
         | accurate with the rise of massive reinforcement learning and w/
         | 'reasoning' models the analogy falls apart when you try to do
         | work with it.
         | 
         | Be on the lookout for folks who tell you these machines are
         | limited because they are "just predicting the next word." They
         | may not know what they're talking about.
        
         | adamtaylor_13 wrote:
         | That's the way many people reduce it, and mathematically, I
         | think that's true. I think what we fail to realize is just far
         | that will actually take you.
         | 
         | "just the most probable word" is a pretty powerful mechanism
         | when you have all of human knowledge at your fingertips.
         | 
         | I say that people "reduce it" that way because it neatly packs
         | in the assumption that general intelligence is something
         | _other_ than next token prediction. I 'm not saying we've
         | arrived at AGI, in fact, I do not believe we have. But, it
         | feels like people who use that framing are snarkily writing off
         | something that they themselves to do not fully comprehend
         | behind the guise of being "technically correct."
         | 
         | I'm not saying all people do this. But I've noticed many do.
        
         | vjerancrnjak wrote:
         | No. There is good signal in IMO gold medal performance.
         | 
         | These models actually learn distributed representations of
         | nontrivial search algorithms.
         | 
         | A whole field of theorem provingaftwr decades of refinements
         | couldn't even win a medal yet 8B param models are doing it very
         | well.
         | 
         | Attention mechanism, a bruteforce quadratic approach, combined
         | with gradient descent is actually discovering very efficient
         | distributed representations of algorithms. I don't think they
         | can even be extracted and made into an imperative program.
        
         | noslenwerdna wrote:
         | I find this kind of reduction silly.
         | 
         | All your brain is doing is bouncing atoms off each other, with
         | some occasionally sticking together, how can it be really
         | thinking?
         | 
         | See how silly it sounds?
        
         | kaiokendev wrote:
         | Given some intelligent system, an AI that perfectly reproduces
         | any sequence that system could produce must encode the patterns
         | that superset that intelligence.
        
         | lijok wrote:
         | To get an answer to that you would first have to define
         | 'thinking'
        
         | pvillano wrote:
         | Does water flowing through a maze solve it by 'thinking'? No.
         | The rules of physics eventually result in the water flowing out
         | the exit. Water also hits every dead end along the way.
         | 
         | The power of LLMs is that by only selecting sequences of words
         | that fit a statistical model, they avoid a lot of dead
         | ends.[^1]
         | 
         | I would not call that, by itself, thinking. However, if you
         | start with an extrapolation engine and add the ability to try
         | multiple times and build on previous results, you get something
         | that's kind of like thinking.
         | 
         | [1]: Like, a lot of dead ends. There are an unfathomable number
         | of dead ends in generating 500 characters of code, and it is a
         | miracle of technology that Claude only hit 30.
        
       | miroljub wrote:
       | Solves? It's a part of the training set. Nothing more, nothing
       | less.
        
         | mwigdahl wrote:
         | Did you read the article? It was an open problem.
        
           | bluGill wrote:
           | Was it? It was an open problem to Knuth - who generally knows
           | how to search literature. However there is enough literature
           | to search that it wouldn't be a surprise at all to discover
           | it was already solved but he just used slightly different
           | terms and so didn't find it. Or maybe it was sovled because
           | this is a specialization of something that looks unrelated
           | and so he wouldn't have realized it when he read it. Or...
           | 
           | Overall I'm going with unsolved, because Knuth is a smart
           | person who I'd expect to not miss the above. I'm also sure he
           | falls for the above all the time even though the majority of
           | the time he doesn't.
        
             | mwigdahl wrote:
             | Agreed with all of that, but with the added point that
             | Knuth has done a lot of work in this exact area in The Art
             | of Computer Programming Volume 4. If he considers this
             | conjecture open given his particular knowledge of the
             | field, it likely is (although agreed, it's not guaranteed).
        
               | ordu wrote:
               | > If he considers this conjecture open given his
               | particular knowledge of the field, it likely is (although
               | agreed, it's not guaranteed).
               | 
               | It is as good as guaranteed. If Knuth says it doesn't
               | know how to solve the problem, and if anyone knows, then
               | they will inform Knuth about it. Knuth not just a very
               | knowledgeable person, but a celebrity also.
        
               | skinner_ wrote:
               | Also, if Claude had regurgitated a known solution, it
               | would have come up with it in the first exploration
               | round, not the 31st, as it actually did.
        
         | rpdillon wrote:
         | Opening sentences:
         | 
         | > Shock! Shock! I learned yesterday that an open problem I'd
         | been working on for several weeks had just been solved by
         | Claude Opus 4.6-- Anthropic's hybrid reasoning model that had
         | been released three weeks earlier! It seems that I'll have to
         | revise my opinions about "generative AI" one of these days.
         | What a joy it is to learn not only that my conjecture has a
         | nice solution but also to celebrate this dramatic advance in
         | automatic deduction and creative problem solving.
        
           | sigmar wrote:
           | I think we're going to have several years of people claiming
           | genAI "didn't really do something novel here," despite
           | experts saying otherwise, because people are scared by the
           | idea that complex problem solving isn't exclusive to humans
           | (regardless of whether these models are approaching general
           | intelligence).
        
         | jcims wrote:
         | Prove it.
        
           | romaniv wrote:
           | I would like to note that it would be trivial to definitively
           | prove or disprove such things if we had a searchable public
           | archive of the training data. Interestingly, the same people
           | (and corporate entities) who loudly claim that LLMs are
           | creating original work seem to be utterly disinterested in
           | having actual, definitive proof of their claims.
        
             | clbrmbr wrote:
             | This would be awesome. Even titles and shasums could be
             | enough.
        
         | nemo1618 wrote:
         | If this was a joke, it certainly flew over most people's
         | heads...
        
         | allreduce wrote:
         | I encourage you to look at what the current models with a bit
         | of harnessing are capable of, e.g. Opus 4.6 and Claude Code.
         | Try to make it solve some mathematics-heavy problem you come up
         | with. If only to get a more accurate picture of whats going on.
         | 
         | Unfortunately, these tools generalize way beyond regurgitating
         | the training set. I would not assume they stay below human
         | capabilities in the next few years.
         | 
         | Why any moral person would continue building these at this
         | point I don't know. I guess in the best case the future will
         | have a small privileged class of humans having total power,
         | without need for human workers or soldiers. Picture a
         | mechanical boot stomping on a human face forever.
        
       | ecshafer wrote:
       | I wonder how long we have until we start solving some truly hard
       | problems with AI. How long until we throw AI at "connect general
       | relativity and quantum physics", give the AI 6 months and a few
       | data centers, and have it pop out a solution?
        
         | worldsavior wrote:
         | If AGI will ever come, then. Currently, AI is only a
         | statistical machines, and solutions like this are purely based
         | on distribution and no logic/actual intelligence.
        
           | rustyhancock wrote:
           | I don't even think that's the issue.
           | 
           | The issue to my mind is a lack of data at the meeting of
           | QFT/GR.
           | 
           | Afterall few humans historically have been capable of the
           | initial true leap between ontologies. But humans are pretty
           | smart so we can't say that is a requirement for AGI.
        
             | worldsavior wrote:
             | When it comes to revolutionary/unsolved subjects, there
             | will never be enough data. That's why its
             | revolutionary/unsolved.
        
             | cjcole wrote:
             | Maybe.
             | 
             | "The laws of nature should be expressed in beautiful
             | equations."
             | 
             | - Paul Dirac
             | 
             | "It is, indeed, an incredible fact that what the human
             | mind, at its deepest and most profound, perceives as
             | beautiful finds its realisation in external nature. What is
             | intelligible is also beautiful. We may well ask: how does
             | it happen that beauty in the exact sciences becomes
             | recognizable even before it is understood in detail and
             | before it can be rationally demonstrated? In what does this
             | power of illumination consist?"
             | 
             | - Subrahmanyan Chandrasekhar
             | 
             | "I often follow Plato's strategy, proposing objects of
             | mathematical beauty as models for Nature."
             | 
             | "It was beauty and symmetry that guided Maxwell and his
             | followers."
             | 
             | - Frank Wilczek
             | 
             | "Beauty, is bound up with symmetry."
             | 
             | - Herman Weyl
             | 
             | "Still twice in the history of exact natural science has
             | this shining-up of the great interconnection become the
             | decisive signal for significant progress. I am thinking
             | here of two events in the physics of our century: the rise
             | of the theory of relativity and that of the quantum theory.
             | In both cases, after yearlong unsuccessful striving for
             | understanding, a bewildering abundance of details was
             | almost suddenly ordered. This took place when an
             | interconnection emerged which, thought largely
             | unvisualizable, was finally simple in its substance. It
             | convinced through its compactness and abstract beauty - it
             | convinced all those who can understand and speak such an
             | abstract language."
             | 
             | - Werner Heisenberg
             | 
             | Maybe (just maybe) these things (whatever you want to call
             | them) will (somehow) gain access to some "compact",
             | beautiful, "largely unvisualizable" "interconnection" which
             | will be the self-evident solution. And if they do, many
             | will be sure to label it a statistical accident from a
             | stochastic parrot. And they'll right, for some definitions
             | of "statistical", "accident", "stochastic", and "parrot".
        
           | zarzavat wrote:
           | I swear that AI could independently develop a cure for cancer
           | and people would still say that it's not actually
           | intelligent, just matrix multiplications giving a
           | statistically probable answer!
           | 
           | LLMs are at least designed to be intelligent. Our monkey
           | brains have much less reason to be intelligent, since we only
           | evolved to survive nature, not to understand it.
           | 
           | We are at this moment extremely deep into what most people
           | would have been considered to be actual artificial
           | intelligence a mere 15 years ago. We're not quite at human
           | levels of intelligence, but it's close.
        
             | worldsavior wrote:
             | That's wrong. Humans were evolved to have big brains so
             | they can better understand the env and use it to their
             | advantage.
             | 
             | I still see AI making stupid silly mistakes. I rather think
             | and not waste time on something that only remembers data,
             | and doesn't even understand it.
             | 
             | Reasoning in AI is only about finding contradictions
             | between his "thoughts", not actually understand it.
        
               | someplaceguy wrote:
               | > I still see AI making stupid silly mistakes.
               | 
               | In contrast with humans, who are famously known for never
               | making stupid silly mistakes...
        
               | _fizz_buzz_ wrote:
               | > I still see AI making stupid silly mistakes.
               | 
               | Humans also make silly mistakes.
        
             | qsera wrote:
             | >AI could independently develop a cure for cancer
             | 
             | All the answers for all your questions is contained in
             | randomness. If you have a random sentence generator, there
             | is a chance that it will output the answer to this question
             | every time it is invoked.
             | 
             | But that does not actually make it intelligent, does it?
        
               | graemefawcett wrote:
               | This is exactly how problem solving works, regardless of
               | the substrate of cognition.
               | 
               | Start with "all your questions contained in randomness"
               | -> the unconstrained solution space.
               | 
               | The game is whether or not you can inject enough
               | constraints to collapse the solution space to one that
               | can be solved before your TTL expires. In software,
               | that's generally handled by writing efficient algorithms.
               | With LLMs, apparently the SOTA for this is just "more
               | data centers, 6 months, keep pulling the handle until the
               | right tokens fall out".
               | 
               | Intelligence is just knowing which constraints to apply
               | and in what order such that the search space is
               | effectively partitioned, same thing the "reasoning"
               | traces do. Same thing thermostats, bacteria, sorting
               | algorithms and rivers do, given enough timescale. You can
               | do the same thing with effective prompting.
               | 
               | The LLM has no grounding, no experience and no context
               | other than which is provided to it. You either need to
               | build that or be that in order for the LLM to work
               | effectively. Yes, the answers for all your questions are
               | contained. No, it's not randomness. It's probability and
               | that can be navigated if you know how
        
               | qsera wrote:
               | You can constrain the solution space all you want, but if
               | you don't have a method to come up with possible
               | solutions that might match the constraints, you ll be
               | just sitting there all day long for the machine to
               | produce some results. So intelligence is not "just
               | knowing which constraints to apply". It is also the
               | ability to come up with solutions within the constraints
               | without going through a lot of trial and error...
               | 
               | But hey, if LLMs can go through a lot of trial and error,
               | it might produce useful results, but that is not
               | intelligence. It is just a highly constrained random
               | solution generator..
        
               | graemefawcett wrote:
               | I believe that's I and the paper are both saying as well.
               | The LLM is pure routing, the constraints currently are
               | located elsewhere in the system. In this case, both the
               | constraints and the motivation to perform the work are
               | located in Knuth and his assistant.
               | 
               | Routing is important, it's why we keep building systems
               | that do it faster and over more degrees of freedom. LLMs
               | aren't intelligent on their own, but it's not because
               | they don't have enough parameters
        
               | famouswaffles wrote:
               | You are arguing a point no-one is making. LLMs are not
               | random sentence generators. Its probability distributions
               | are anything but random. You could make an actual random
               | sentence generator, but no-one would argue about its
               | intelligence.
        
             | wang_li wrote:
             | Last week I put "was val kilmer in heat" into the search
             | box on my browser. The AI answer came back with "No, Val
             | Kilmer was not in heat. Val Kilmer played Chris Shiherlis
             | in the movie Heat but the film did not indicate that he was
             | pregnant or in heat. His performance was nuanced and
             | skilled and represents a high point of the film." I was not
             | curious about whether he was pregnant.
             | 
             | We are not only not close to human level of intelligence,
             | we are not even at dog, cat, or mouse levels of
             | intelligence. We are not actually at any level of
             | intelligence. Devices that produce text, images, or code do
             | not demonstrate intelligence any more than a printer
             | producing pages of beautiful art demonstrate intelligence.
        
               | DennisP wrote:
               | Honestly, when I read your first sentence, given the lack
               | of a capital H, my brain initially went the same
               | direction the AI did. Then I realized what you meant but
               | since I already went there, I might have made a similar
               | response as a joke. For the sake of my ego I'm forced to
               | reject your claim that this is evidence of stupidity.
        
               | sosodev wrote:
               | The model that processes search results is tiny and dumb.
               | You shouldn't compare it to the frontier models that are
               | solving complex math problems.
        
               | StilesCrisis wrote:
               | On Google, just clicking "AI Mode" gives you a
               | substantially smarter model, and it's still pretty weak.
               | But I assume the OP wasn't talking about Google because
               | it doesn't seem to make this mistake even in a search.
        
               | wang_li wrote:
               | It was bing as that is the default for Edge as supplied
               | on my work laptop. It doesn't do this now, but it does do
               | something else quite weird:
               | 
               | search: was val kilmer pregnant or in heat
               | 
               | answer: Not pregnant Val Kilmer was not pregnant or in
               | heat during the events of "Heat." His character, Chris
               | Shiherlis, is involved in a shootout and is shot, which
               | indicates he is not in a reproductive or mating state at
               | that time.
               | 
               | And then cites wikipedia as the source of information.
               | 
               | In terms of cognition the answer is meaningless. Nothing
               | in the question implies or suggests that the question has
               | to do with a movie. Additionally, "involved in a shootout
               | and is shot, which indicates he is not in a reproductive
               | or mating state" makes no sense at all.
               | 
               | AI as deployed shows no intelligence.
        
               | Philpax wrote:
               | If you asked a three-year-old a question that they
               | proceeded to completely flub, would you then assume that
               | all humans are incapable of answering questions
               | correctly?
               | 
               | Nobody is arguing for the quality of the search
               | overviews. The models that impress us are several orders
               | of magnitude larger in scale, and are capable of doing
               | things like assisting preeminent computer scientists (the
               | topic of discussion) and mathematicians
               | (https://github.com/teorth/erdosproblems/wiki/AI-
               | contribution...).
        
               | StilesCrisis wrote:
               | Microsoft is bad at AI and this is a great example. I'm
               | wondering if someone saw your post on HN and tried to
               | hardcode a rule here, because I agree, it's nonsense.
               | None of the actual AI companies are emitting nonsense
               | like this.
        
               | logicprog wrote:
               | > I was not curious about whether he was pregnant.
               | 
               | I interpreted the question the same way the AI did.
        
               | akoboldfrying wrote:
               | It's clearly just a hallucination. Everyone knows there
               | was never a movie called Heat, Val Kilmer did not play
               | Chris Shiherlis in it, and he has always been pregnant.
        
           | bobbylarrybobby wrote:
           | Did you read the linked paper? Claude out-reasoned humans on
           | a challenging (or at least, unsolved) math problem.
        
             | worldsavior wrote:
             | Merely luck in my opinion. There could be also multiple
             | times where it didn't solve it.
        
             | cjcole wrote:
             | "humans"
             | 
             | Donald Knuth is an extremal outlier human and the problem
             | is squarely in his field of expertise.
             | 
             | Claude, guided by Filip Stappers, a friend of Knuth, solved
             | a problem that Knuth and Stappers had been working on for
             | several weeks. Unfortunately, it doesn't seem (from my
             | quick scan) to have been stated how long (or how many
             | tokens or $) it took for Claude + Stappers to complete the
             | proof.
             | 
             | In response, Knuth said: "It seems that I'll have to revise
             | my opinions about "generative AI" one of these days."
             | 
             | Seems like good advice. From reading elsewhere in this
             | comment section, the goalposts seem to be approaching the
             | infrared and will soon disappear from the extreme redshift
             | due to rate at which they are receding with each new
             | achievement.
        
               | emp17344 wrote:
               | What goalposts do you think are being moved? I constantly
               | see AI enthusiasts use this phrase, but it's not clear
               | what goalposts they have in mind. Specifically, what is
               | it that you want opponents to recognize that you believe
               | they aren't currently?
               | 
               | We now have a tool that can be useful in some narrow
               | domains in some narrow cases. It's pretty neat that our
               | tools have new capabilities, but it's also pretty far
               | from AGI.
        
               | cjcole wrote:
               | I'm not an enthusiast. I'm a Butlerian.
               | 
               | Imagine hearing pre-attention-is-all-you-need that "AI"
               | could do something that Donald Knuth could not (quickly
               | solve the stated problem in collaboration with his
               | friend).
               | 
               | The idea that this (Putnam perfect, IMO gold, etc) is all
               | just "statistical parrot" stuff is wearing a little thin.
        
               | whimsicalism wrote:
               | You must have forgotten the /s at the end of your
               | comment?
        
               | emp17344 wrote:
               | Uh, no? You think LLMs are AGI?
        
               | inertiatic wrote:
               | >We now have a tool that can be useful in some narrow
               | domains in some narrow cases.
               | 
               | I get being reserved about where this goes, but saying
               | something like this is quite insane at this point.
        
           | whimsicalism wrote:
           | It only took 4 years, but it appears that this view is
           | finally dying out on HN. I would advise everyone who found
           | this viewpoint compelling to think about how those same
           | blinders might be affecting how you are imagining the future
           | to look like.
        
         | rustyhancock wrote:
         | I think a very long time because part of our limit is
         | experiment.
         | 
         | We need enough experimental results to explain to solve these
         | theoretical mismatches and we don't and at present can't
         | explore that frontier.
         | 
         | Once we have more results at that frontier we'd build a theory
         | out from there that has two nearly independent limits for QFT
         | and GR.
         | 
         | What we'd be asking if the AI is something that we can't expect
         | a human to solve even with a lifetime of effort today.
         | 
         | It'll take something in par with Newton realising that the
         | heavens and apples are under the same rules to do it. But at
         | least Newton got to hold the apple and only had to imagine he
         | could a star.
        
           | bob1029 wrote:
           | What prevents us from giving this system access to other real
           | systems that live in physical labs? I don't see much
           | difference between parameterizing and executing a particle
           | accelerator run and invoking some SQL against a provider.
           | It's just JSON on the wire at some level.
        
             | rustyhancock wrote:
             | Nothing, we can give it all the data we have and have it
             | lead experiments.
             | 
             | But we can not yet experiment at the GR/QFT frontier.
             | 
             | To do so with a particle accelerator it would need to be
             | the size of the milky way.
        
           | fragmede wrote:
           | The question is, if you trained an LLM on everything up until
           | 1904, could it come up with E=MC2 or not?
        
             | rustyhancock wrote:
             | In 1900 Henri Poincare wrote that radiation (light) has an
             | effective mass given by E/c^2.
             | 
             | So it really isn't far fetched. What intrigues me more is
             | if it was capable of it would our Victorian conservative
             | minded scientists have RLHF it out of that kind of thing?
        
           | eru wrote:
           | > I think a very long time because part of our limit is
           | experiment.
           | 
           | Yes, maybe. But if you are smarter, you can think up better
           | experiments that you can actually do. Or re-use data from
           | earlier experiments in novel and clever ways.
        
             | fleischhauf wrote:
             | this. could already be useful to narrow down the search
             | space
        
           | smj-edison wrote:
           | Agreed. We have lots of theories like string theory, but
           | until we can make an experiment to prove one way or another
           | it remains a theory.
        
           | booleandilemma wrote:
           | Even if the AI could suggest experiments to try, and tell us
           | "check that out and get back to me with the results", that
           | would be valuable.
        
         | graemefawcett wrote:
         | Connecting them is easy, one is the math of the exchange and
         | one of the state machine.
         | 
         | A better question might be why no one is paying more attention
         | to Barandes at Harvard. He's been publishing the answer to that
         | question for a while, if you stop trying to smuggle a Markovian
         | embedding in a non-Markovian process you stop getting weird
         | things like infinities at boundaries that can't be worked out
         | from current position alone.
         | 
         | But you could just dump a prompt into an LLM and pull the
         | handle a few dozen times and see what pops out too. Maybe whip
         | up a Claw skill or two
         | 
         | Unconstrained solution space exploration is surely the way to
         | solve the hard problems
         | 
         | Ask those Millenium Prize guys how well that's working out :)
         | 
         | Constraint engineering is all software development has ever
         | been, or did we forget how entropy works? Someone should remind
         | the folk chasing P=NP that the observer might need a pen to
         | write down his answers, or are we smuggling more things for
         | free that change the entire game? As soon as the locations of
         | the witness cost, our poor little guy can't keep walking that
         | hypercube forever. Can he?
         | 
         | Maybe 6 months and a few data centers will do it ;)
        
         | emp17344 wrote:
         | Hold your horses, that's a long way off. The best math AI tool
         | we currently have, Aletheia, was only able to solve 13 out of
         | 700 attempted open Erdos problems, only 4 of which were solved
         | autonomously: https://arxiv.org/html/2601.22401v3
         | 
         | Clearly, these models still struggle with novel problems.
        
           | slibhb wrote:
           | > Clearly, these models still struggle with novel problems.
           | 
           | Do they struggle with novel problems more or less than
           | humans?
        
             | Filligree wrote:
             | Less than most humans, but more than many humans.
        
         | piokoch wrote:
         | You will get a usual AI slop that will be the mixture of the
         | articles and books it was trained on. You can try it even now.
        
       | Pat44113 wrote:
       | I asked Claude to solve the pentominoes puzzle made famous by
       | Arthur C. Clarke. It struggled mightily until I told it how I'd
       | solved the problem using 64 bit unsigned integers to represent
       | the board and pieces. Then, it created a C# program that solved
       | the problem very quickly. However, in the 20x3 case it found four
       | solutions when there are only two. Turns out it had incorrectly
       | mapped one of the pentominoes. Sort of a silly mistake; the sort
       | a human might make.
        
       | ontouchstart wrote:
       | Fascinating report by DEK himself.
       | 
       | Time to sit down, read, digest and understand it without the help
       | of LLM.
        
         | ontouchstart wrote:
         | I don't have time to do that myself yet so I just dug a quick
         | TL;DR rabbit hole for fun:
         | 
         | https://ontouchstart.github.io/rabbit-holes/llm_rabbit_hole_...
        
           | tkel wrote:
           | Lol, it's longer than the original article.
        
       | iandanforth wrote:
       | TLDR (story, not math) - Knuth poses a problem, his friend uses
       | Claude to conduct 30 some explorations, with careful human
       | guidance, and Claude eventually writes a Python program that can
       | find a solution for all odd values. Knuth then writes a proof of
       | the approach and is very pleased by Claude's contribution. Even
       | values remain an open question (Claude couldn't make much
       | progress on them)
        
         | logicprog wrote:
         | > with careful human guidance,
         | 
         | I think this is pretty clearly an overstatement of what was
         | done. As Knuth says,
         | 
         | "Filip told me that the explorations reported above, though
         | ultimately successful, weren't really smooth. He had to do some
         | restarts when Claude stopped on random errors; then some of the
         | previous search results were lost. After every two or three
         | test programs were run, he had to remind Claude again and again
         | that it was supposed to document its progress carefully. "
         | 
         | That doesn't look like careful human guidance, especially not
         | the kind that would actually guide the AI toward the solution
         | at all, let alone implicitly _give_ it the solution -- that
         | looks like a manager occasionally checking in to prod it to
         | keep working.
        
         | semessier wrote:
         | looks like he is trying to make a point that the actual
         | (formal) proof for 2Z + 1 (odd numbers) is still human - by
         | himself that is. Not sure who came up with the core modular
         | arithmetic idea of with s = 0 k increasing by 2 mod m.
        
       | fazkan wrote:
       | time to use claude code to understand DEKs paper, in plain
       | English. As someone who did a bit of formal verification in grad
       | school. I feel like, there are a long tail of problems that can
       | be solved by human-model collab like this one. The problems may
       | not mean much but hopefully it can stack up understanding of
       | intelligence.
        
       | beej71 wrote:
       | From my naive standpoint, LLMs like this seem to have some big
       | strengths. One: possession of a superhuman expanse of knowledge.
       | Two: making connections. Three: tireless trial and error.
       | 
       | If you put those three things together, you end up with some cool
       | stuff from time to time. Perhaps the proof of P!=NP is tied to an
       | obscure connection that humans don't easily see due to individual
       | lack of knowledge or predisposition of bias.
        
         | xvector wrote:
         | This is why the whole "LLMs for mass surveillance" thing is
         | scary imo.
        
           | beej71 wrote:
           | Yeah, this is a dictator's dream scenario and hell for the
           | citizens. Not only do you not want to get caught for saying
           | something that The Great Leader disapproves of, but you're
           | terrified that anything you say might get flagged by an AI.
        
         | cbovis wrote:
         | Unless my understanding is incorrect about how these tools work
         | that last point isn't really a quality of LLMs as such? It gets
         | attributed because the lines are blurred but the tireless trial
         | and error is actually just a quality of a regular programatic
         | loop (agent/orchestrator) that happens to be doing the
         | trickiest part of its work via an LLM.
        
         | naughtyrabisu wrote:
         | Three: tireless trial and error. Cannot agree more. I figured
         | this probably be the biggest advantage of LLM considering for
         | other variables humans hold the same-level competency.
        
         | IAmGraydon wrote:
         | >One: possession of a superhuman expanse of knowledge. Two:
         | making connections. Three: tireless trial and error.
         | 
         | One and three I believe are correct. The second point, making
         | connections, is something LLMs seem to be incapable of truly
         | doing unless the connection is already known and in its
         | training data.
        
           | beej71 wrote:
           | I agree partially, but I think there might be a _ton_ of
           | connections in the training data that aren 't obvious to
           | humans. And being a word prediction engine is all about
           | making those connections.
        
         | Barbing wrote:
         | Well put.
         | 
         | >If you put [possession of a superhuman expanse of knowledge,
         | making connections, tireless trial and error] together, you end
         | up with some cool stuff from time to time.
         | 
         | Hard to argue.
        
       | jdnier wrote:
       | > I think Claude Shannon's spirit is probably proud to know that
       | his name is now being associated with such advances. Hats off to
       | Claude!
       | 
       | I didn't realize Claude was named after Claude Shannon!
       | 
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Claude_Shannon
        
         | bread-wood wrote:
         | Here I was assuming it was named after
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Claude_(alligator)
        
         | NitpickLawyer wrote:
         | Wait till you hear about nvidia and their GPU architecture
         | naming scheme :)
        
         | tzumaoli wrote:
         | Trivia: Claude Shannon proposed the idea of predicting the next
         | token (letter) using statistics/probabilities in the training
         | data corpus in 1950: "Prediction and Entropy of Printed
         | English" https://languagelog.ldc.upenn.edu/myl/Shannon1950.pdf
        
           | Anon84 wrote:
           | It goes back a bit further than that. His 1948 "Mathematical
           | theory of communication" [1] already has (what we would now
           | call) a Markov chain language model, page 7 onwards. AFAIK,
           | this was based on his classified WWII work so it was probably
           | a few years older than that
           | 
           | [1] https://people.math.harvard.edu/~ctm/home/text/others/sha
           | nno...
        
             | aix1 wrote:
             | I was just reading Norbert Wiener's "The Human Use of Human
             | Beings" (1950) and this quote gave me a good chuckle:
             | 
             | "One may get a remarkable semblance of a language like
             | English by taking a sequence of words, or pairs of words,
             | or triads of words, according to the statistical frequency
             | with which they occur in the language, and the gibberish
             | thus obtained will have a remarkably persuasive similarity
             | to good English."
        
           | Trinicode wrote:
           | A letter is not a token, is it? Redundancy could hit 75% in
           | long sentences, but Shannon was not predicting tokens or
           | words, he was predicting letters (characters).
        
         | pfdietz wrote:
         | It's like the diesel engine, which is named after Rudolf
         | Engine.
        
           | ai_critic wrote:
           | :|
        
           | roer wrote:
           | Is this a joke I don't get? His name was Rudolf Diesel,
           | right?
        
             | stavros wrote:
             | Yes, it is a fantastic joke and I laughed for ages, well
             | played.
        
         | SenorKimchi wrote:
         | And Claude had a collection of cycles, unicycles. Unfortunately
         | the article is about something else altogether.
        
         | teekert wrote:
         | Last time I asked Claude itself also didn't know.
        
       | faxmeyourcode wrote:
       | > Filip also told me that he asked Claude to continue on the even
       | case after the odd case had been resolved. "But there after a
       | while it seemed to get stuck. In the end, it was not even able to
       | write and run explore programs correctly anymore, very weird. So
       | I stopped the search."
       | 
       | Interesting snippet towards the end. I wonder if they were using
       | claude.ai or claude code. Sounds like they ran out of context and
       | entered the "dumb zone."
        
         | afspear wrote:
         | What would be super cool is if this dumb zone could be
         | quantified and surfaced to the user. I've noticed that copilot
         | now has a little circle graph that indicates context use
         | percentage and it changes color based on percentage. I'll bet
         | these are very naive metrics on used tokens vs context
         | availability. I wonder if there could be meta data streamed or
         | sent along with the tokens that could show that you've entered
         | the dumb zone.
        
         | simianwords wrote:
         | They mentioned plan document
        
         | joshrw wrote:
         | Then it needs to do context compacting, otherwise the results
         | become garbage
        
         | brcmthrowaway wrote:
         | What is dumb zone?
        
           | kami23 wrote:
           | When the LLMs start compacting they summarize the
           | conversation up to that point using various techniques.
           | Overall a lot of maybe finer points of the work goes missing
           | and can only be retrieved by the LLM being told to search for
           | it explicitly in old logs.
           | 
           | Once you compact, you've thrown away a lot of relevant tokens
           | from your problem solving and they do become significantly
           | dumber as a result. If I see a compaction coming soon I ask
           | it to write a letter to its future self, and then start a new
           | session by having it read the letter.
           | 
           | There are some days where I let the same session compact 4-5
           | times and just use the letter to future self method to keep
           | it going with enough context because resetting context also
           | resets my brain :)
           | 
           | If you're ever curious in Claude once you compact you can
           | read the new initial prompt after compaction and see how
           | severe it gets cut down. It's very informative of what it
           | forgets and deems not important. For example I have some
           | internal CLIs that are horribly documented so Claude has to
           | try a few flags a few times to figure out specifics and those
           | corrections always get thrown away and it has to relearn them
           | next time it wants to use the CLI. If you notice things like
           | that happening constantly, my move is to codify those things
           | into my CLAUDE.md or lately I've been making a small script
           | or MCP server to run very specific flags of stuff.
        
             | LPisGood wrote:
             | > I ask it to write a letter to its future self, and then
             | start a new session by having it read the letter
             | 
             | Is that not one kf the primary technologies for
             | compactification?
        
               | fourthark wrote:
               | I think the point is that you have a better idea of what
               | you want it to remember and even a small hint can have
               | big impact.
               | 
               | Just saying "write up what you know", with no other
               | clues, should not perform any better than generic
               | compaction.
        
               | kami23 wrote:
               | You should do your own experiment when you see compaction
               | about to start use the end of your window to have it
               | write one first, and then let the session compact and
               | compare. I was surprised by how small the compact message
               | is.
               | 
               | When I tell it to write a letter to itself I usually
               | phrase it.
               | 
               | 'write a letter to yourself Make notes of any gotchas or
               | any quirks that you learned and make sure to note them
               | down.'
               | 
               | It does get those into the letter but if you check
               | compaction a lot of it is gone.
        
             | ulrikrasmussen wrote:
             | So you use the letter to itself in addition to the
             | compacted context? I am curious what you ask it to include
             | in the letter and how it is different from a custom
             | instruction passed to /compact?
        
             | kqr wrote:
             | What prompt do you use for the letter-to-self? I've been
             | trying that technique myself to manually reset context
             | without losing the important parts (e.g. when it has barked
             | up the wrong tree and I'm sensing that misstep might
             | influence its current generation in a pathological way),
             | but I've not had much success.
        
             | discardable_dan wrote:
             | Shouldn't compaction be exactly that letter to its future
             | self?
        
         | pcloadlett3r wrote:
         | In another part he says Filip restarted Claude many times so it
         | seems they are aware of context polution and ways to avoid it
         | (also why they kept telling Claude to write _everything_ to a
         | file). It could just be that Claude was caught between a rock
         | and a hard place; dissapointing the user vs solving a problem
         | it couldn 't solve.
        
       | nphardon wrote:
       | Must be a fun time to work on open problems. I published my
       | graduate research close to a decade ago, often find myself
       | fantasizing about tackling open problems with Claude.
        
       | taylorius wrote:
       | I thought Claude Monet - Impressionist techniques applied to
       | coding.
        
       | konne88 wrote:
       | I didn't expect such a misleading intro from Knuth. It reads like
       | Claude solved Knuth's math problem. In reality, Claude generated
       | various example solution, and Knuth then manually generalized
       | that to a formal proof. What Claude did is certainly useful, but
       | it would have been nice to be clear about the scope of the
       | contribution in the intro.
        
         | bachmeier wrote:
         | My interpretation is that Claude did what Knuth considers to be
         | the "solution". Doing the remaining work and polishing up the
         | proof are not necessary to have a solution from this
         | perspective.
        
           | OneManyNone wrote:
           | Claude did not find a proof, though. It found an algorithm
           | which Knuth then proved was correct.
        
             | CobrastanJorji wrote:
             | Yes, and his point is that finding that algorithm was, to
             | Knuth, the interesting part. Getting from that to a proof
             | was the boring bit.
        
               | NewsaHackO wrote:
               | Yeah, and I'm not sure what the other guy's argument is.
               | It's Knuth, the primary researcher, who is giving the
               | praise here. I don't see a possible motivation he would
               | have to falsely give accolades to a AI for a problem he
               | presented, then cleaned up to solve.
        
               | OneManyNone wrote:
               | That's fair. Clearly Knuth himself thought it was
               | impressive, that's a strong signal.
        
             | iterance wrote:
             | The insight is the point of research. Proof isn't the
             | desired product of research, it's simply an apparatus that
             | exists for the purpose of verifying and demonstrating
             | correctness of insight.
        
             | versteegen wrote:
             | AFAICT, Claude was not asked to prove its algorithm works
             | for all odd n, but was instead told to move on to even n.
        
         | rishabhaiover wrote:
         | That's true but the capability to go back to an older
         | iteration, reflect and find the correct solution (for odd
         | numbers) is, in my book, a sign of undeniable intelligence.
        
           | jdub wrote:
           | Or, the ability to construct additional sentences influenced
           | by prior ones.
        
             | rishabhaiover wrote:
             | Those additional sentences are fairly non-trivial to
             | construct, would you agree?
        
         | aoeusnth1 wrote:
         | I don't think he's misleading, I think he is valuing Claude's
         | contributions as essentially having cracked the problem open
         | while the humans cleaned it up into something presentable.
        
         | buffalobuffalo wrote:
         | While not on the same level as these guys, I've done some
         | similar stuff using Claude. This is a classic synergy example,
         | where the output of human + LLM is far greater than just the
         | human or just the LLM working on a problem. My experience has
         | been that the LLM lacks fine grained judgement when it comes to
         | allocating resources, or choosing a direction to work in. But
         | once a direction is pointed out, it can do a deep exploration
         | of that possibility space. Left alone, it would probably just
         | go off on a tangent. But with someone holding the leash and
         | pointing out areas to explore, it is a very useful partner.
        
           | igravious wrote:
           | > But with someone holding the leash
           | 
           | i've been thinking about why we call them agent _harnesses_
           | 
           | i know all analogies suck in different ways but here goes:
           | 
           | coding agents are like horses. without a harness and bridle
           | they'll the horse will do as it pleases -- a human can't
           | travel very far and fast by foot but put a bridle and a
           | harness on a horse, give it a bit of coaxing with carrot and
           | stick, add in a bit a pointing the thing in the right
           | direction and bingo you're off to the races!
        
         | famouswaffles wrote:
         | Claude solved it, Knuth developed the proof for the solution.
        
         | fooker wrote:
         | It's not misleading. This is how research works.
         | 
         | LLMs are really good at the 're' in research.
        
       | zackmorris wrote:
       | Amazing paper. The simulated annealing portion reminds me of
       | genetic algorithms (GAs). A good intro to that are the Genetic
       | Programming series of books by John Koza, I read III in the early
       | 2000s:
       | 
       | https://www.amazon.com/Genetic-Programming-III-Darwinian-Inv...
       | 
       | https://www.genetic-programming.com/
       | 
       | Note that the Python solution in the pdf is extremely short, so
       | could have been found by simply trying permutations of math
       | operators and functions on the right side of the equation.
       | 
       | We should be solving problems in Lisp instead of Python, but no
       | matter. That's because Lisp's abstract syntax tree (AST) is the
       | same as its code due to homoiconicity. I'm curious if most AIs
       | transpile other languages to Lisp so that they can apply
       | transformations internally, or if they waste computation building
       | programs that might not compile. Maybe someone at an AI company
       | knows.
       | 
       | -
       | 
       | I've been following AI trends since the late 1980s and from my
       | perspective, nothing really changed for about 40 years (most of
       | my life that I had to wait through as the world messed around
       | making other people rich). We had agents, expert system, fuzzy
       | logic, neural nets, etc since forever, but then we got video
       | cards in the late 1990s which made it straightforward to scale
       | neural nets (NNs) and GAs. Unfortunately due to poor choice of
       | architecture (SIMD instead of MIMD), progress stagnated because
       | we don't have true multicore computing (thousands or millions of
       | cores with local memories), but I digress.
       | 
       | Anyway, people have compared AI to compression. I think of it
       | more as turning problem solving into a O(1) operation. Over time,
       | what we think of as complex problems become simpler. And the rate
       | that we're solving them is increasing exponentially. Problems
       | that once seemed intractable only were because we didn't know the
       | appropriate abstractions yet. For example, illnesses that we
       | thought would never be cured now have vaccines through mRNA
       | vaccines and CRISPR. That's how I think of programming. Now that
       | we have LLMs, whole classes of programming problems now have O(1)
       | solutions. Even if that's just telling the computer what problem
       | to solve.
       | 
       | So even theorem proving will become a solved problem by the time
       | we reach the Singularity between 2030 and 2040. We once mocked
       | GAs for exploring dead ends and taking 1000 times the processing
       | power to do simple things. But we ignored that doing hard things
       | is often worth it, and is still a O(1) operation due to linear
       | scaling.
       | 
       | It's a weird feeling to go from no forward progress in a field to
       | it being effectively a solved problem in just 2 years. To go from
       | trying to win the internet lottery to not being sure if people
       | will still be buying software in a year or two if/when I finish a
       | project. To witness all of that while struggling to make rent, in
       | effect making everything I have ever done a waste of time since I
       | knew better ways of doing it but was forced to drop down to
       | whatever mediocre language or framework paid. As the problems I
       | was trained to solve and was once paid to solve rapidly diminish
       | in value because AI can solve them in 5 minutes. To the point
       | that even inventing AGI would be unsurprising to most, so I don't
       | know why I ever went into computer engineering to do exactly
       | that. Because for most people, it's already here. As I've said
       | many times lately, I thought I had more time.
       | 
       | Although now that we're all out of time, I have an uncanny
       | feeling of being alive again. I think tech stole something from
       | my psyche so profound that I didn't notice its loss. It's along
       | the lines of things like boredom, daydreaming, wasting time. What
       | modern culture considers frivolous. But as we lose every last
       | vestige of the practical, as money becomes harder and harder to
       | acquire through labor, maybe we'll pass a tipping point where the
       | arts and humanities become sought-after again. How ironic would
       | it be if the artificial made room for the real to return?
       | 
       | On that note, I read a book finally. Hail Mary by Andy Weir. The
       | last book I read was Ready Player One by Ernest Cline, over a
       | decade ago. I don't know how I would have had the bandwidth to do
       | that if Claude hadn't made me a middle manager of AIs.
        
       | zoogeny wrote:
       | I recall an earlier exchange, posted to HN, between Wolfram and
       | Knuth on the GPT-4 model [1].
       | 
       | Knuth was dismissive in that exchange, concluding "I myself shall
       | certainly continue to leave such research to others, and to
       | devote my time to developing concepts that are authentic and
       | trustworthy. And I hope you do the same."
       | 
       | I've noticed with the latest models, especially Opus 4.6, some of
       | the resistance to these LLMs is relenting. Kudos for people being
       | willing to change their opinion and update when new evidence
       | comes to light.
       | 
       | 1. https://cs.stanford.edu/~knuth/chatGPT20.txt
        
         | 3abiton wrote:
         | > Kudos for people being willing to change their opinion and
         | update when new evidence comes to light. > 1.
         | https://cs.stanford.edu/~knuth/chatGPT20.txt
         | 
         | I think that's what make the bayesian faction of statistics so
         | appealing. Updating their prior belief based on new evidence is
         | at the core of the scinetific method. Take that frequentists.
        
           | Chinjut wrote:
           | It does not seem fair to say that frequentists do not update
           | their beliefs based on new evidence. This does not seem to
           | accurately capture what the difference between Bayesians and
           | frequentists (or anyone else) is.
        
             | atomicnature wrote:
             | What's the difference as you see it?
        
               | kqr wrote:
               | Everyone updates their belief in hypotheses based on the
               | perceived strength of evidence they observe. That's just
               | science.
               | 
               | Frequentists and Bayesians differ in which sets of
               | statistical tools they prefer for measuring the strength
               | of evidence.
        
               | kubanczyk wrote:
               | > Everyone updates their belief
               | 
               | Uh oh. How does frequentist model define "belief" and
               | "updating a belief"?
        
           | medi8r wrote:
           | Are frequentists a group that self identifies? Don't
           | scientist use the best tool for the job.
        
       | ibic wrote:
       | Wow, it's from Donald Knuth.
        
       | chrsw wrote:
       | Am I mad or is there a missing ")" on lines and 8 and 9 of the
       | first "C form" that should go before the semicolons?
        
         | kqr wrote:
         | Correct. Line 10 does not have the same mistake.
        
       | computerex wrote:
       | It's incredible to see work like this from him, at a ripe old age
       | of eighty-six.
        
         | kqr wrote:
         | I agree. I met Knuth briefly after a guest lecture at my
         | university a few years ago and although you could tell his body
         | was getting old, his mind was incredibly fresh.
         | 
         | Although I'm not as bright as him, I can only hope to be as
         | intellectually curious as him at that age.
        
           | OJFord wrote:
           | I don't even think this is controversial, but I don't think
           | it's at all without causation: _not_ remaining curious,
           | keeping the mind stimulated, etc., accelerates one 's
           | decline.
           | 
           | If you work in something labour intensive, you should retire
           | young while your body's in good health; if you work in
           | academia you should (strive for emeritus and) never leave!
           | (And if you work in SWE, I don't know, we should probably
           | retire, but then spend more time on our own
           | projects/experiments/reading HN.) (All assuming for sake of
           | argument we're optimising for longevity without considering
           | time with family, having the funds to retire, etc.)
        
       | adolfont wrote:
       | Well, for starters, I think it's wrong to criticise LLMs with 'it
       | can't do that' (from what I understood from the first paragraph,
       | this was Donald's criticism).
       | 
       | If it can, does it make a difference in relation to all the other
       | problematic aspects of LLMs? Not for me.
       | 
       | Two links that might enlighten Donald:
       | 
       | - Against the Uncritical Adoption of 'AI' Technologies in
       | Academia https://zenodo.org/records/17065099 - The AI Con
       | https://thecon.ai
        
       | quinndupont wrote:
       | Interesting to see the mathematical solution space get optimized
       | away. On account of "there's no accounting for taste" this
       | actually makes me hopeful that creative workers have durable
       | skills that can't be optimized, which I can't say about
       | mathematics and computer science.
        
       | lhl wrote:
       | I was a bit interested to do a replication and see if better
       | harness could avoid some of the problems they ran w/ context
       | management, poor instruction following, etc and it looks like
       | yes, it's definitely possible.
       | 
       | Here's my repo: https://github.com/lhl/claudecycles-revisited
       | 
       | I used Codex w/ 5.2 xhigh and a relatively simple AGENTS.md - I
       | have some session-analysis as well. The original replication was
       | 47 minutes, then another 30 minutes of gap filling, and finally
       | about 30 minutes of writing an extension to take the work a bit
       | further, with Claude Code Opus 4.6 doing some documentation
       | cleanup and verification.
        
         | carterschonwald wrote:
         | omg this is so cool. because im writing my own harness and i
         | need some cognitive benchmarks. i have a bunch of harness level
         | infra around llm interactions that seems to help with
         | reasoning, but i dont have a structured way evaluate things
         | 
         | thx for sharing your test setup, i really appreciate the time
         | you took. this will help me so much
        
         | pushedx wrote:
         | As described in the readme of your repo (did you read it?) your
         | agent found the Knuth paper located one directory level above
         | its working directory.
         | 
         | So, you didn't produce a replication in 47 minutes, it just
         | took around 30 minutes for your agent to find that you had the
         | answer in a PDF in a nearby directory.
        
           | antonly wrote:
           | I wonder how common of a problem this will be in the future.
           | The experiment will fail due to improper setup, the human
           | will at best glance over the logs and declare victory, and
           | everyone just believes.
        
       | mihevc wrote:
       | Et tu, Knuthus?
        
       | flashybaby wrote:
       | The capabilities discussion is important but what keeps me up at
       | night is the organizational question. These models are getting
       | better every cycle, and meanwhile most companies have zero
       | framework for what happens when an employee actually uses them to
       | their full potential.
       | 
       | Someone made a short film about exactly this -- a guy uses AI to
       | do his entire department's quarterly work, and instead of anyone
       | celebrating, everything falls apart: https://youtu.be/O5FFkHUdKyE
       | 
       | The technology is clearly outpacing the institutions that have to
       | absorb it. Every new cycle makes that gap wider.
        
       | lacoolj wrote:
       | OK so now I need someone to take this problem and feed it into
       | Gemini Deep Think or whatever and see if you get the same (or
       | better/worse) outcome.
       | 
       | No one cares about ChatGPT so don't bother with that.
       | 
       | OK GO
        
       | ano-ther wrote:
       | Interesting that for a paper by Don Knuth himself the PDF was
       | created with dvips (TeX Live) but then switched to Acrobat
       | Distiller, resulting in a rather low resolution (at least on my
       | screen).
       | 
       | From the document properties: > Creator: dvips(k) 2023.1 (TeX
       | Live 2023) > PDF Producer: Acrobat Distiller 25.0 (Macintosh)
        
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